2015 ASOIAF Theory Poll RESULTS, Part 1 (Identity & Conspiracy Theories)

[Good Guy Garlan]

I can't believe I never considered Voltron or Donald Trump as suspects of poisoning the locusts. That made my day. 

Truly awesome job, OP. This is great.

[White Ravens]

Conclusion

Thank you again for participating in the poll. It was a lot of fun to see all the results and to share them with you. And please feel free to dig through the analytics and come up with more analysis on your own. Next week, I'll bring part 2 (Plot points, ASOIAF History and the future of the story theories) to you all. Thanks for your patience, and please let me know ways that I can improve for next year! Cheers!

Thanks for all of the time and energy you spent on this project!  It was a fun read.

[Good Guy Garlan]

OP, there was a question in the poll about Quaithe's identity, right? I'm very curious to see what's the consensus about her. 

[BryndenBFish]

OP, there was a question in the poll about Quaithe's identity, right? I'm very curious to see what's the consensus about her. 

The majority of all fan communities stated that Quiathe was... Quiathe. Here's Westeros' responses:

A Shadowbinder from Asshai, no more	91	47.6%
Ashara Dayne	9	4.7%
Shiera Seastar	43	22.5%
Rhaella Targaryen	0	0%
Future Daenerys	12	6.3%
Don't Know/No Opinion	35	18.3%
Other	1	0.5%

[Good Guy Garlan]

The majority of all fan communities stated that Quiathe was... Quiathe. Here's Westeros' responses:

A Shadowbinder from Asshai, no more	91	47.6%
Ashara Dayne	9	4.7%
Shiera Seastar	43	22.5%
Rhaella Targaryen	0	0%
Future Daenerys	12	6.3%
Don't Know/No Opinion	35	18.3%
Other	1	0.5%

Hmmm, interesting. I guess GRRM hasn't given us much to work with regarding her identity. 

[Avlonnic]

I truly appreciate the tremendous effort you put into this. 

[JNR]

What amazes me is how many people cannot see who Jon's parents are.

I couldn't agree more.

[LmL]

Well he does want to stab Melissa Nissa in the heart.

He's also reborn amidst salt and smoke, and there's a scene on Dragonstone in the map room where he lights fires "to chase the shadows back into their corners," sounds like my man Eldric Shadowchaser.  

And of course, Davos actually possess more heroic qualities that basically anyone else in the story. I'd put him on a level with Brienne, Septon Meribald, etc - and Jon Snow is close, I'll grant. But the point is, Davos absolutely has the stuff of true heroes. Precisely because he can't imagine stabbing his wife with a sword. I don't think that's what true heroes do, myself. I am thinking that "Azor Ahai reborn" might need to NOT repeat the actions of original AA - quite the opposite, in fact. I don't think the original Azor Ahai was a hero - he broke the moon and stabbed his wife to work blood magic. I think the idea of repeating his actions is basically a trap which our "AA reborn" people must not fall into. When Jon dreams of wielding a burning red sword and defending the Wall, he does awful things - he kills everyone she knows and loves. It's a nightmare. And I think that's a big hint - AA reborn is not all it's cracked up to be. I'd go further and say that we basically need to undo some of his evil deeds, not repeat them. We shouldn't be looking for a woman for Jon to stab, in other words.

In my opinion, Azor Ahai reborn is something of an archetype which manifests among multiple people. I'd agree Jon and Dany are the most important / prominent manifestations of Azor Ahai reborn, but Jamie, Brienne, Davos, and others also manifest parts of the pattern pr pieces of his symbolism. I don't think there is one right answer and a bunch of wrong answers. I think George is upending "the Dragon Reborn" trope by making it more vague and spread out. Think about it as "team Azor Ahai." That's also why several things seem like Lightbringer - Dany's Dragons, the red comet, Jon himself, the Nightswatch and / or the Wall itself, the Hightower beacon, the sword Dawn or other flaming swords... they are all manifestations of Lightbringer, in my opinion, and in all likelihood we will need several of them to do certain things. I'm seeing a lot of teamwork, not one hero with one sword or one dragon. 

And I think that's why people can see so many different people and things that fit as Azor Ahai reborn or Lightbringer. But I don't think there's a bunch of red herrings and one right answer... I think George has done something more clever and subtle than that. Somehitng more vague, something that allows people to continue to debate after the novels are finished. Who was the real Azor Ahai reborn, we'll be able to ask, if Jon and Dany and a few others all play an important role in defeating the Others or ending the probably-soon-to-come-second-Long-Night. There might not be one right answer, and I think that's because it's just an archetype that is manifesting all over the place until shit gets put back in order. 

[LmL]

I truly appreciate the tremendous effort you put into this. 

 

Thanks for all of the time and energy you spent on this project!  It was a fun read.

I can't believe I never considered Voltron or Donald Trump as suspects of poisoning the locusts. That made my day. 

Truly awesome job, OP. This is great.

Yep!! Thanks so much for all the hard work, Mr. Hartline!  There is no fish that's beefier in all the Riverlands!

[Lord Lannister]

Who the fuck voted on Davos as Azor Ahai?

Thanks to god, the number of people who don't believe in the Tyrion Targaryen bullshit surpasses those who believe.

I know. How dare anyone not share your opinion. Such lowly people are deserving of any and all ridicule and disparaging remarks.

[7-KG]

I know. How dare anyone not share your opinion. Such lowly people are deserving of any and all ridicule and disparaging remarks.

*Eyeroll.*

The Tyrion Targaryen one might've been a bit harsh, i see, but you seriously think Davos is Azor Ahai? Like, for real?

[Lord Lannister]

*Eyeroll.*

The Tyrion Targaryen one might've been a bit harsh, i see, but you seriously think Davos is Azor Ahai? Like, for real?

You missed the point entirely. The point isn't the specific issues but your apparent attitude towards anyone with a differing opinion from yours.

[7-KG]

You missed the point entirely. The point isn't the specific issues but your apparent attitude towards anyone with a differing opinion from yours.

Look, if it makes you happy, i'll edit the posts. Sorry if you thought i sounded like a dick.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Thanks OP, we appreciate your work.

I'm a little embarrassed about the turnout from Westeros.org  being the smallest, but not nearly as embarrassed as I am about our answers. We're the leaders in R+L=/=J? Come on, heretics, you're making us look dumb.

Look, if it makes you happy, i'll edit the posts. Sorry if you thought i sounded like a dick.

That's my job, not yours.

[LmL]

Thanks OP, we appreciate your work.

I'm a little embarrassed about the turnout from Westeros.org  being the smallest, but not nearly as embarrassed as I am about our answers. We're the leaders in R+L=/=J? Come on, heretics, you're making us look dumb.

That's my job, not yours.

Nobody thinks believing RLJ is dumb except a very small handful of people - that's what this poll tells us. That's kind of the thing about heresy - it's a group of like 8 people who think they are much smarter than all the unwashed masses, who are all so dumb as to believe in RLJ. 

Frankly it's hilarious. 

[UnmaskedLurker]

Nobody thinks believing RLJ is dumb except a very small handful of people - that's what this poll tells us. That's kind of the thing about heresy - it's a group of like 8 people who think they are much smarter than all the unwashed masses, who are all so dumb as to believe in RLJ. 

Frankly it's hilarious. 

But what is pathetic is that I strongly suspect that once RLJ is proven to be correct, they either will disappear from the board or claim they always knew RLJ was a real possibility but just think we all should have considered all possibilities and not jumped to any conclusions prematurely. So even after being proven wrong, I suspect they will still feel superior for their judgment in waiting until the evidence was definitive to come to any conclusion.

[Kienn]

But what is pathetic is that I strongly suspect that once RLJ is proven to be correct, they either will disappear from the board or claim they always knew RLJ was a real possibility but just think we all should have considered all possibilities and not jumped to any conclusions prematurely. So even after being proven wrong, I suspect they will still feel superior for their judgment in waiting until the evidence was definitive to come to any conclusion.

But if they're right... Boy will you look silly.

[UnmaskedLurker]

But if they're right... Boy will you look silly.

Yes, if they are right -- I will look silly -- as will many other people. But my confidence in the RLJ theory is strong enough that I just don't see it happening. If it does -- I guess I will have to learn to live with the shock and the shame.

[Jak Scaletongue]

Nobody thinks believing RLJ is dumb except a very small handful of people - that's what this poll tells us. That's kind of the thing about heresy - it's a group of like 8 people who think they are much smarter than all the unwashed masses, who are all so dumb as to believe in RLJ. 

Frankly it's hilarious. 

 

But what is pathetic is that I strongly suspect that once RLJ is proven to be correct, they either will disappear from the board or claim they always knew RLJ was a real possibility but just think we all should have considered all possibilities and not jumped to any conclusions prematurely. So even after being proven wrong, I suspect they will still feel superior for their judgment in waiting until the evidence was definitive to come to any conclusion.

But sometimes it FUN to dissect ALL possibilities even WHEN you're on the R+L=J bandwagon!  I fully believe that R+L=J, but that doesn't mean I don't enjoy looking at the possibility that he's someone else's kid.  It's not like we're lacking in time before TWoW comes out!  And *some* of us enjoy playing "devil's advocate" just for the fun of it!  But I enjoy being contrary in real life, just on principle.  Can't have anyone thinking I'm a pushover !  Or a band-wagon jumper!

[UnmaskedLurker]

 

But sometimes it FUN to dissect ALL possibilities even WHEN you're on the R+L=J bandwagon!  I fully believe that R+L=J, but that doesn't mean I don't enjoy looking at the possibility that he's someone else's kid.  It's not like we're lacking in time before TWoW comes out!  And *some* of us enjoy playing "devil's advocate" just for the fun of it!  But I enjoy being contrary in real life, just on principle.  Can't have anyone thinking I'm a pushover !  Or a band-wagon jumper!

I have absolutely no problem whatsoever in people exploring other possibilities. If the heretics presented their ideas in that context -- I would applaud their thoroughness. Nothing should be taken for granted and all possibilities should be fully explored before coming to any conclusion.

But that attitude is not what many of them have taken. Many of them have made largely disingenuous arguments (or at least they seem that way to me) and fought with RLJ supporters by putting forth positions that were borderline trolling. In the end, if someone is going to try to analyze the text, a conclusion gets reached. For this particular issue, the evidence -- even after looking at all the alternative theories -- points strongly toward RLJ.

Any argument that any of these people might make after the fact that they were merely exploring all possibilities (rather than discounting RLJ) will really be just a "ret con" of their position -- as many of them went way beyond that and were openly antagonistic to the RLJ position.