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Theralion

Euron's Plan and Why it has Failed

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I agree with the assessment "Victarion isn't going to set foot on land". Once he hears news that Daenerys is no longer *in* Meereen - which he may well be able to work out from the fact that she's not there riding a dragon in the battle, as she would be if she was there, or may work out from reports brought back during the battle - he has no motivation to go there, and - considering that the city will have trouble feeding itself, and is also about to be hit with a huge attack of the Bloody Flux - even less reason to stay for long.

However I also agree with the assessment that the Dragon Horn was not put into the story to end up being useless. It's going to do *something* - right here, and right now, which is when Victarion is having one or more of his minions blow it, and while Daenerys is not there. In other words, it's going to do something for Victarion - or, if Victarion has not broken Euron's control over the horn, it will achieve something for Euron, although Victarion may not find out to whose benefit it is until he gets home.

As for the Volantene ships being something for "Victarion to transport Dany's army in": I don't think so. For starts, Dany won't *have* an army: the Unsullied are likely to lose most of their numbers in the battle at Meereen. A city which can barely feed itself is not going to willingly load up an army with provisions that they themselves desperately need, meaning that if there is anything left of Meereen or indeed Yunkai if she gets back with an army, she will have to sack it and murder most of the inhabitants just to steal food. The situation is still worse if it's Dothraki and horses: the only way a Dothraki army is going to Westeros is if they cross the land all the way to the Free Cities and embark from Volantis or even Pentos. Meereen, with its farmland badly damaged and pillaged by the Slave Masters, is not going to be able to supply them with enough provisions to make it the long way around the ruins of Valyria, even if it wanted to.

In any case it's strongly hinted now that Daenerys will end up back at Vaes Dothrak - and it would simply take waaaaay too long to get even to Meereen *from* there at horse-speed or walking-speed, even if she leaves the place with an intact army. I don't believe she will be leaving it with much else other than Drogon. I think her fate is to bring destruction everywhere she goes: "Dragons do not build", and the question is not whether she can seize her heritage but whether she can *escape* it.

"Remember what you are. The dragons know. Do you?" - sounds like a fairly terrible threat to me. I think that deciding to be what *she* wants to be, not what her heritage or history or ancestry want her to be, is the only thing that could possibly save her - and possibly save Westeros.

Edited by JLE

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Assuming that something is in the story so must be important doesn't work with GRRM.

That's not to say the Dragon horn won't work. It's just saying don't count on it. Also remember that the other dragons are smaller than Drogon, they probably aren't the game changer we think they are... yet.

Personally i think it's possible that the horn will attract the Dragons to Victarion. Only for them to melt his face.

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Now there has been a lot of speculations and hints that Euron has been practicing blood sacrifice as we read in the Forsaken chapter where he sacrificed Aeron and Falia, to overcome the Redwyne fleet, he isn't over yet and Victarion is still miles behind him. If Victarion does manage to suceed getting the dragons over to his side or Euron's plan fail to get the dragons to his side, then he would use some methods to change of plan. Thus, agreeing with the others that he plan to invade Old Town to grab the books about the dragons along with blood sacrifice in order to avoid the back flip outcomes, especially if he cannot obtain the dragons.

On 2/29/2016 at 0:56 AM, Lord Wraith said:

Anyone else find the idea of using a horn to bind dragons to be BS? 

If Euron won't have the dragons and Dany will be the one to use it only, then totally yes.

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4 hours ago, The Arthur Smith said:

Now there has been a lot of speculations and hints that Euron has been practicing blood sacrifice as we read in the Forsaken chapter where he sacrificed Aeron and Falia, to overcome the Redwyne fleet, he isn't over yet and Victarion is still miles behind him. If Victarion does manage to suceed getting the dragons over to his side or Euron's plan fail to get the dragons to his side, then he would use some methods to change of plan. Thus, agreeing with the others that he plan to invade Old Town to grab the books about the dragons along with blood sacrifice in order to avoid the back flip outcomes, especially if he cannot obtain the dragons.

If Euron won't have the dragons and Dany will be the one to use it only, then totally yes.

Why would Dany need to use it? She has already bonded with Drogon.

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53 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Why would Dany need to use it? She has already bonded with Drogon.

Not really. Drogon was aggressive at the pit and Dany was pretty bad at timing them. So Dany would have to use the Dragonbinder to take control of her dragons compltely. Plus, it would seems like Moqorro is going to side with Dany and leading the dragonbinder to her. So maybe this is the case.

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21 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Why would Dany need to use it? She has already bonded with Drogon.

I agree with this. She's already bonded with all the dragons, Drogon most of all.

In terms of the Horn, I smell a Lord of the Rings parallel. "No mortal MAN shall sound me and live." Kind of like a certain wring-wraith that couldn't be killed by a mortal man? What about a woman? Score one more for Eowyn/Dany.

She can use it with no penalty as a woman. Might be part of the reason Targs intermarried. The woman had to sound the horn, not the man.

 

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On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 8:36 PM, The Arthur Smith said:

Not really. Drogon was aggressive at the pit and Dany was pretty bad at timing them. So Dany would have to use the Dragonbinder to take control of her dragons compltely. Plus, it would seems like Moqorro is going to side with Dany and leading the dragonbinder to her. So maybe this is the case.

In her last chapter, after another 1 of her dragon dreams, Drogon comes when called, and then flies where Dany tells him to fly.  In doing so she also bled on him.  In TPATQ we are told that when Aemond rode Vhagar just a couple times around dragonstone and set her back down, that the bond was set.

 

On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 3:30 PM, The Arthur Smith said:

Now there has been a lot of speculations and hints that Euron has been practicing blood sacrifice as we read in the Forsaken chapter where he sacrificed Aeron and Falia, to overcome the Redwyne fleet, he isn't over yet and Victarion is still miles behind him. If Victarion does manage to suceed getting the dragons over to his side or Euron's plan fail to get the dragons to his side, then he would use some methods to change of plan. Thus, agreeing with the others that he plan to invade Old Town to grab the books about the dragons along with blood sacrifice in order to avoid the back flip outcomes, especially if he cannot obtain the dragons.

If Euron won't have the dragons and Dany will be the one to use it only, then totally yes.

Aeron has not been sacrificed, he is whole and tied to the front of the ship.

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On 8/30/2016 at 3:01 AM, zalim said:

lol just wait and watch :D

he is going to be killing a whole lot of your azor ahais :D

This, so much.

21 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

Aeron has not been sacrificed, he is whole and tied to the front of the ship.

*Quote edited for relevance

I agree with this whole-heartedly. If anything he will come back harder and stronger.

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On February 28, 2016 at 11:56 PM, Lord Wraith said:

Anyone else find the idea of using a horn to bind dragons to be BS? 

Yes. Another idea that has come up a few times in this thread that I'm unsure if it's BS or not... this upcoming dance of dragons. It seems like there has been much foreshadowing and prophesy that implies there will be another dance of dragons. 

From WOW:

Spoiler

The first to come to mind is the dream the young girl had (sorry, don't remember her name atm) in Arianne's WOW chapter, "Everywhere the dragons dance, people will die" or something close to that.

A lot of people seem to take that as a guarantee that there will be some dragon fights, but there have been a number of prophesies in the books and pre-books that involve dragons, and they are almost NEVER literally about dragons.

I could see Dany vs fAegon, or maybe one of them vs a secret/hidden Targ (Jon, Bloodraven Tyrion, Varys, Daario, Mance, Moonboy, whoever else you'd want to be a Targ), but I don't think we'll see any of Dany's dragons fight each other. 

Edited by Aedam Targaryen
Spoiler tag

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Dragonbinder is not needed to tame dragons. Targs did it without the horn.So did the succesfull dragonspawns in the Dance. My personal guess is that the horn will make dragons ticked off and uncontrollable. It WILL work, but it will not do anything obviously predictable.

 

As for Euron and Oldtown, let's just say I wo not expect the entire chapter on Marwyn and his circle being wasted so that they all die. After all... Slayer may need another victim :)

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On 1/14/2016 at 1:53 PM, Theralion said:

Euron had his warlocks make him master of dragonbinder and handed it off to Victarion knowing that no matter who blows it, the dragons will go to Euron. But now Moqorro is rebinding the horn to a new master, probably Daenerys. Back in westeros he is going to lose the shield islands to the redwynes and the dragons he hoped for won't materialize. These events will eventually bring about his downfall as king.

the next time you sit down with GRRM and he tells you all sorts of book spoilers, record the convo and take some pics of you two. 

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On 2016-01-14 at 4:53 PM, Theralion said:

Euron had his warlocks make him master of dragonbinder and handed it off to Victarion knowing that no matter who blows it, the dragons will go to Euron. But now Moqorro is rebinding the horn to a new master, probably Daenerys. Back in westeros he is going to lose the shield islands to the redwynes and the dragons he hoped for won't materialize. These events will eventually bring about his downfall as king.

I'm not sure about this conclusion.

"A tall and twisted thing, with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing in a sea of blood" - Moqorro.

I thought the tall and twisted thing was Euron; until I read this bit:

Spoiler

Aeron Damphair looked. The mound of skulls was gone. Now it was metal underneath the Crow’s Eye: a great, tall, twisted seat of razor sharp iron, barbs and blades and broken swords, all dripping blood.

The 'tall and twisted thing' seems to be the Iron Throne itself.

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On 25.8.2016 at 0:56 AM, maestergnothis said:

The caveat that "no mortal man should sound me and live..." suggests that someone who is not mortal could blow it and live. John Snow might fit that description (or Lady Stoneheart). Why else would GRRM include that?

 

On 29.8.2016 at 10:58 PM, YouKnowNothingJonSnow said:

I agree with this. She's already bonded with all the dragons, Drogon most of all.

In terms of the Horn, I smell a Lord of the Rings parallel. "No mortal MAN shall sound me and live." Kind of like a certain wring-wraith that couldn't be killed by a mortal man? What about a woman? Score one more for Eowyn/Dany.

She can use it with no penalty as a woman. Might be part of the reason Targs intermarried. The woman had to sound the horn, not the man.

 

This is what came to my mind as well. The witch king was killed by a woman (eowyn) with the help of a halfling (meriadoc). Maybe the horn will be used by a woman (daenerys) with the help of a halfman (tyrion) ?

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On 1/15/2016 at 11:23 AM, JLE said:

Moqorro is not going to MEET Daenerys - yet, or possibly ever. She is not, in fact, in Meereen at all: and will not be back for some time.
 

We know she will eventually meet Moqorro. 

Quote

No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

She already saw the pale mare and the sun’s son. GRRM has confirmed she's gonna cross paths with Tyrion. Quaithe's message means she'll meet them all. 

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12 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

We know she will eventually meet Moqorro. She already saw the pale mare and the sun’s son. GRRM has confirmed she's gonna cross paths with Tyrion. Quaithe's message means she'll meet them all. 

But that still doesn't mean she's going to meet them NOW, or indeed for some time. It's already established how far is the trek from the Dothraki lands to Meereen, at the speed of a horse: if she comes back to Meereen with an army, it can't be at dragon flying speed, but horse trotting speed, and she won't be back for a long time.

GRRM did confirm that she'll cross paths with Tyrion - but NOT for some time yet in the book. She has unfinished business with the Dothraki first. By which time Victarion, and his dragon horn, will be long gone from Meereen (whether alive or dead): for the simple reason that the logistics of maintaining an army in hostile territory that is already ravaged by famine and disease, neither of which he himself knows how to combat - and has another invading fleet on the way (and one that Victarion himself acknowledges he cannot even beat at sea let alone on land, due to sheer weight of numbers) will demand that he cannot stay for long enough for Dany to arrive with an army. If she comes to Meereen with an army, Victarion will not be there: if she comes in time to meet Victarion, she will have had to fly with Drogon, and have no army with her.

Victarion does not have either the ships or the men to transport an army of tens of thousands of Dothraki *and their horses* for Dany. His remaining ships would have to have a crew of a thousand men each, making an army of 50k-60k - and have all those men get slaughtered - just to provide the space for even a third of that number of Dothraki and their horses: and then there would be nobody left who could actually sail them. But ships do not have crews of 1000: they have perhaps a few tens, maybe even low-hundreds if most of them are passengers. Even if he's running each ship on a skeleton crew - with tens rather than low-hundreds of men in each of his 60-odd remaining ships - sailing them needs expertise as well as numbers, and you'd need a lot more ships than that to carry even 20000 Dothraki, their horses (a horse takes up more space than a man and requires more fodder) and all the food supplies (that Meereen doesn't have and can't provide) to sustain them for the long voyage.

Even if Victarion is coming with his ships stuffed full of passenger warriors, and returns with nothing but a skeleton crew for each, he can't carry any army of significant size that Dany might bring. The Dothraki are NOT coming to Westeros by sea from Meereen. Even if they were to come by sea at all, they would have to come by land to the Free Cities and take ship across the much shorter distance from Volantis or Pentos.

Moqorro may remain behind: he is already acquainted with Tyrion after all. Dany may yet meet Moqorro as well as Tyrion in Meereen, if Moqorro finds a way to decamp from Victarion's ships, or indeed if Victarion gets defeated there and Moqorro escapes with his life.

Aegon, the "mummer's dragon", did not even come to Slaver's Bay. Nor did the griffin, Jon Connington. Nor are they going to come at all. If Dany meets them, it will have to be in Westeros - but in that case she will have to come VERY fast (and without an army, since armies are slow), since Connington will die of greyscale otherwise.

Who, anyway, is to say that Quaithe's prophecies are necessarily perfect?

The dragon horn is NOT going to be Dany's. It is going to be used against her, not by her.  It is going to be used by a non-Targaryen to control a dragon that will fight against Dany's Drogon.

As I pointed out: Moqorro has only an inscription to go on, and may not necessarily know HOW to get from "blood for fire, fire for blood" into "a definitely magical and working method of binding the horn to a master when it is already previously bound to another" (assuming he supports Dany, which I think can be taken as read), even if he meets her: and since Victarion must leave Meereen before Dany can return, then the chances are that the horn will also be gone from Meereen, and therefore Moqorro cannot bind the horn to her since it will have left the city before she arrives.

Edited by JLE

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1 hour ago, JLE said:

 

But that still doesn't mean she's going to meet them NOW, or indeed for some time. It's already established how far is the trek from the Dothraki lands to Meereen, at the speed of a horse: if she comes back to Meereen with an army, it can't be at dragon flying speed, but horse trotting speed, and she won't be back for a long time.
 

If you read my post I said eventually.... I think fAegon and griffs encounters will be either end of TWOW or beginning of DOS. 

Secondly, wow! You assume a lot of things are going to happen/not happen.

Edited by OtherFromAnotherMother

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