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A+J=T v.9


UnmaskedLurker

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Instead of being together, Cersei and Jaime just changed places, and he found himself alone at court, guarding a mad king while four lesser men took their turns dancing on knives in his father's ill-fitting shoes. So swiftly did the Hands rise and fall that Jaime remembered their heraldry better than their faces. The horn-of-plenty Hand and the dancing griffins Hand had both been exiled, the mace-and-dagger Hand dipped in wildfire and burned alive. Lord Rossart had been the last. His sigil had been a burning torch; an unfortunate choice, given the fate of his predecessor, but the alchemist had been elevated largely because he shared the king's passion for fire. (Jaime II, ASOS)

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Bloody fools, thought Tyrion. "I seem to recall that Maegor the Cruel's headsman unmade three with his axe."

"Quite true," Varys said. "And the second Aegon fed Grand Maester Gerardys to his dragon."

"Alas, I am quite dragonless. I suppose I could have dipped Pycelle in wildfire and set him ablaze. Would the Citadel have preferred that?"

"Well, it would have been more in keeping with tradition." The eunuch tittered. (Tyrion II, ASOS)

Another connection between Aerys and Tyrion. These lines even occur in adjacent chapters. There's also Tyrion's remark about being "quite dragonless" in the sentence preceding his wildfire comment.

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His father never had any use for drunkards, but what did that matter? His father was dead. He'd killed him. A bolt in the belly, my lord, and all for you. If only I was better with a crossbow, I would have put it through that cock you made me with, you bloody bastard. (Tyrion I, ADWD)

If A+J=T, then Tywin's cock didn't make Tyrion, and Tyrion himself would be a bastard, making this thought of his intensely ironic.

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"It is almost as if someone wanted to keep you hidden whilst still preparing you for … what? Now, there's a puzzlement, but I'm sure that in time it will come to me. I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy."

The boy flushed. "I am not dead."

"How not? My lord father wrapped your corpse in a crimson cloak and laid you down beside your sister at the foot of the Iron Throne, his gift to the new king. Those who had the stomach to lift the cloak said that half your head was gone." (Tyrion V, ADWD)

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"Our dead dwarf has returned to us," Haldon said.

Tyrion shook his head to clear away the webs of dream. The Sorrows. I was lost in the Sorrows. "I am not dead."

"That remains to be seen." (Tyrion VI, ADWD)

Young Griff and Tyrion were both referred to as dead, and they both said the exact same thing in response. The dialogue with Young Griff led up to the reveal that he was Aegon Targaryen, so this parallel might be a hint that a similar revelation is in store for Tyrion.

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When the prince reached for his dragon, Tyrion cleared his throat. "I would not do that if I were you. It is a mistake to bring your dragon out too soon." He smiled innocently. "Your father knew the dangers of being overbold."

"Did you know my true father?"

"Well, I saw him twice or thrice, but I was only ten when Robert killed him, and mine own sire had me hidden underneath a rock. No, I cannot claim I knew Prince Rhaegar. Not as your false father did. Lord Connington was the prince's dearest friend, was he not?"

[...]

The dwarf pushed his black dragon across a range of mountains. "But what do I know? Your false father is a great lord, and I am just some twisted little monkey man." (Tyrion VI, ADWD)

Tyrion's “false father” was also a great lord, assuming AJT.

On 2/21/2016 at 10:09 AM, UnmaskedLurker said:

Additional quotes provided by Shmendricko:

Small correction, but there's no "n" in my username. Might be worth fixing whenever you get a chance.

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On 21-4-2016 at 2:49 PM, A spoon of knife and fork said:

When it comes to a story, these are one and the same though. 

If GRRM needs something to be a secret, it will be a secret.  Even if sometimes it stretches credulity (though I don't think that's the case here)..

I disagree. 

Whatever a character all knows, we are not immediately made aware of that. We are revealed little by little what a character knows (if we are made aware at all). But when we are made aware of what a characters knows (or knew), his actions should (still) make sense with that knowledge. That is what we do with theories. We look at the things the character has done, look at the theory we propose, and then look at whether, with that theory in mind, the character's actions still make sense. 

 

Look at Varys, for example. Varys knew about Aegon long before AGOT began. We, the readers, did not. Yet the knowledge the character Varys had at that time, knowledge the reader did not have, will have influenced his actions. 

So yeah, I think there's a difference between those two.

 

On 21-4-2016 at 2:49 PM, A spoon of knife and fork said:

KL was Johannas home for several years.   She likely had friends and would have felt free to move about on her own while they were visiting.  Her children would be looked after by their nurse so I seriously doubt she was nailed to the floor in the tower of the hand.  Meanwhile Tywin would likely have been busy at work as he always was.  

Joanna had been sent away by the Queen, though, nine years before. I'd assume she brought some ladies to accompany her to court, but that doesn't mean that she would have been walking through the castle all alone, at night, after having been publicly humiliated by the King.

 

On 21-4-2016 at 2:49 PM, A spoon of knife and fork said:

My best guess is Tywin did not know exactly what happened because Johanna refused to say.  Because she would not want Tywin to start a war over it.  But, Tywin probably guessed that Aerys had done something awful to her because she would have been very upset when she returned to the tower of the hand.  

And why would Tywin continue to serve Aerys as hand if he thought he might have raped Or Assaulted Johanna?  Well, he did attempt to resign immediately.  I don't think a single insulting comment is really significant enough to warrent such a move - suspecting Aerys had physically attacked Johanna would be.  But without proof or even Johannas admission he could only suspect.  In any case as hand, Tywin is in a good position to ultimately get power over Aerys.  Which he did - int he next few years people understood who was really running the kingdom and this infuriated Aerys.

The man resigned when the King stole his heir, but gave up his attempt to resign when his motivation was that the King had hurt his wife?

Tywin had been the target of mockery for years, and he had been willing to take that, but this was the first time the mockery was directed at his wife, the woman he loved. Is it difficult to believe that Tywin drew a line there?

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1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I disagree. 

Whatever a character all knows, we are not immediately made aware of that. We are revealed little by little what a character knows (if we are made aware at all). But when we are made aware of what a characters knows (or knew), his actions should (still) make sense with that knowledge. That is what we do with theories. We look at the things the character has done, look at the theory we propose, and then look at whether, with that theory in mind, the character's actions still make sense. 

Look at Varys, for example. Varys knew about Aegon long before AGOT began. We, the readers, did not. Yet the knowledge the character Varys had at that time, knowledge the reader did not have, will have influenced his actions. 

So yeah, I think there's a difference between those two.

Ok. I see what you mean. I agree this applies potentially to Tywin, but there's no reason he had to know much of what went on.  Are there any other characters  where it would be a problem?  

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Joanna had been sent away by the Queen, though, nine years before. I'd assume she brought some ladies to accompany her to court, but that doesn't mean that she would have been walking through the castle all alone, at night, after having been publicly humiliated by the King.

Why would it be at night?  

I see no reason why Johanna would have felt the need to be accompanied at ALL times. I assume Aerys would have been creeping on her years ago.  Also I'm not sure we can say what order the events happened.

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The man resigned when the King stole his heir, but gave up his attempt to resign when his motivation was that the King had hurt his wife?

Straw camels back.  Tywin didn't know what happened - just that Johanna was shaken up.  I suspect it was only after time that he started to think it might be rape.  Like perhaps every time Aerys got brought up later Johanna would start ptsd'ing.

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Tywin had been the target of mockery for years, and he had been willing to take that, but this was the first time the mockery was directed at his wife, the woman he loved. Is it difficult to believe that Tywin drew a line there?

I suppose, but the comment wasn't that bad.  It was like "I hope breastfeeding hasn't messed up her nice boobs".  He'd probably said worse before.  

And we don't really know Tywon had been a target of mockery for "years" by that point.  This was fairly early in their relationship which was supposed to have soured quite gradually.  It might have been one of the first big ones (after the Wedding groping anyway).   

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As to the being alone problem:

Aerys II is the Targaryen king. He knows about the secret passageways in his own castle and can use them. Technically he could have visited Joanna in Tywin's bedchamber like Tyrion much later did.

[We can be reasonably sure that this is the case because Varys would have needed a source for his extensive knowledge of the Red Keep's secrets. And the source for that would have been the maps in the possession of the Targaryens. Hell, the very idea that any of the greater Targaryen kings didn't tightly control the access to the tunnels after what happened to Maegor and Prince Jaehaerys makes little sense. Not to mention that a king like Aegon V most likely would have slept very uneasy knowing that there are important secrets in his own castle he has no idea about.]

But that wouldn't be necessary. In fact, the Hand and the Hand's wife would have had separate apartments like any other proper noble family did. That is a matter of the status of a noble family. Even Catelyn and Ned had separate bedchambers and they did apparently not sleep apart all that often.

In fact, it is not unlikely that Joanna Lannister lived in the very same apartments Alicent Hightower did after she moved out of Maegor's Holdfast and into the Tower of the Hand. And we know from ASoS that you can reach effectively every level/room in that tower via the secret passageways, and TPatQ also confirms that Blood and Cheese could sneak unseen into Alicent's apartments.

I don't think Aerys burst into Joanna's bedchamber and brutally raped her there - that would be both over the top and very difficultly to conceal. But it is very easily imaginable that Aerys visited Joanna in secret without Tywin ever realizing that this was the case (although he must also have known about the existence of the secret tunnels and stuff).

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In the first conversation in KL between Tywin and Tyrion, the former leaves pretty clear that he believes Tyrion is Aerys' son. He may be right or else, but he's the most qualified to know. His coming to and going from KL only can confirm the facts.

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On 4/22/2016 at 5:15 AM, Shmedricko said:

 

Small correction, but there's no "n" in my username. Might be worth fixing whenever you get a chance.

Fixed in the OP -- the OP also now includes these new quotes that you found.

Anyone who spots any errors or issues with the OP -- or has something useful to add, please let me know.

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On 22-4-2016 at 11:51 PM, A spoon of knife and fork said:

Why would it be at night?  

I see no reason why Johanna would have felt the need to be accompanied at ALL times. I assume Aerys would have been creeping on her years ago.  Also I'm not sure we can say what order the events happened.

That was the scenario that was suggested, and thus the one I was responding to :)

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I can't say that this is a theory I ever took very seriously, or cared for all that much, but on reading the OP here: I still don't like the idea, but that is some pack of convincing arguments. I admit that the only two things keeping me from getting on board with it (besides general dislike) aren't very solid:

- R+L=J has more hints, and those hints are more prominent. For two main characters to turn out to be secret Targ children seems a tad gimmicky, all the more so in the (highly unlikely) event that Aegon turns out to be the real deal.

Spoiler

- The show. For all the changes it's made, and for all its...difficulties in keeping certain elements in the audiences' mind when they aren't front-and-center, the show has kept up (sporadic) references to Rhaegar and Lyanna, and it started working in R+L=J hints in earnest last season. So far as I can recall, absolutely nothing hinting at A+J=T has been retained. Again, for all the changes made on the show, its runners have said that they are working towards the same ending as GRRM (however inartfully), and as A+J=T is the sort of thing that is likely to have a huge impact on the ending (for Tyrion, at least, and he is a favorite of the showrunners), it's hard for me to believe that even D&D wouldn't have kept at least some of the Aerys/Joanna material in the show if it ultimately led to this sort of payoff.

 

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6 hours ago, Fisch said:

I can't say that this is a theory I ever took very seriously, or cared for all that much, but on reading the OP here: I still don't like the idea, but that is some pack of convincing arguments. I admit that the only two things keeping me from getting on board with it (besides general dislike) aren't very solid:

- R+L=J has more hints, and those hints are more prominent. For two main characters to turn out to be secret Targ children seems a tad gimmicky, all the more so in the (highly unlikely) event that Aegon turns out to be the real deal.

  Reveal hidden contents

- The show. For all the changes it's made, and for all its...difficulties in keeping certain elements in the audiences' mind when they aren't front-and-center, the show has kept up (sporadic) references to Rhaegar and Lyanna, and it started working in R+L=J hints in earnest last season. So far as I can recall, absolutely nothing hinting at A+J=T has been retained. Again, for all the changes made on the show, its runners have said that they are working towards the same ending as GRRM (however inartfully), and as A+J=T is the sort of thing that is likely to have a huge impact on the ending (for Tyrion, at least, and he is a favorite of the showrunners), it's hard for me to believe that even D&D wouldn't have kept at least some of the Aerys/Joanna material in the show if it ultimately led to this sort of payoff.

 

Indeed R+L=J has more hints, because it is essential to the development of Jon's arc or the whole story... (he is the Song of Ice and Fire after all), whereas A+J=T or T=T is not essential for Tyrion's development (the fact that is able is) and some, including me, think his paternity will never be clearly revealed to us / Westeros (his riding a dragon will be all that we know, just like Nettle in tPatQ). And Jon may not ride a dragon in the (near) future, unlike Tyrion (dead cert in tWoW IMO), therefore R+L=J clues are much more needed.

As for the clues in the TV series, please check this thread where we discuss AJT in both the books and the show: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/130025-book-spoilers-rlj-ajt-and-other-theories-on-hbo-v3/&do=findComment&comment=7566441

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4 hours ago, Jo Maltese said:

Indeed R+L=J has more hints, because it is essential to the development of Jon's arc or the whole story... (he is the Song of Ice and Fire after all), whereas A+J=T or T=T is not essential for Tyrion's development (the fact that is able is) and some, including me, think his paternity will never be clearly revealed to us / Westeros (his riding a dragon will be all that we know, just like Nettle in tPatQ). And Jon may not ride a dragon in the (near) future, unlike Tyrion (dead cert in tWoW IMO), therefore R+L=J clues are much more needed.

As for the clues in the TV series, please check this thread where we discuss AJT in both the books and the show: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/130025-book-spoilers-rlj-ajt-and-other-theories-on-hbo-v3/&do=findComment&comment=7566441

Well, I'll admit that if all the theory amounts to is dragon riding and a possible "what if" hanging over him, for the fans to debate 'til the end of time, then that's a much more palatable outcome for me.

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On 4/19/2016 at 6:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

@dmc515

Well, it is not my job to write stuff that necessarily convinces you, right?

If you check my writings then I never said 'Tywin did know Tyrion wasn't his son'. I just provided possible explanations for scenarios in which this was the case. I never said those scenarios have to be the case, nor am I necessarily convinced that Tywin knew for a certainty that Tyrion wasn't his seed. 

If you step as low as asking why the hell Tywin didn't just murder his dwarf son - who was an abomination, a disappointment, and not much use regardless who is father was - then you have to argue that the deciding factor must have been Tywin's love for Joanna, the mother of the boy, and his loyalty to House Lannister.

We know that Tywin raised Gerion's bastard Joy Hill at Casterly Rock, too, so there is a pretty strong hint that he wouldn't just kill a Lannister bastard - and if Aerys was Tyrion's father then the boy is as much a Lannister bastard (through Joanna) as he is a Targaryen bastard.

However, I'd not be surprised one bit if it turned out that Tyrion was a sort of twisted mirror image of Jon Snow in more than one occasion. Not just being a bastard disguised as a legitimate son, but also being (sort of) protected by a similar promise as Jon Snow was. When Lyanna died Ned gave her a promise, and when Joanna died Tywin may have given her a similar promise - to not blame the child for her, Joanna's, infidelity, and to raise Aerys' bastard as his own son.

If there is anything to Tywin's devotion to his wife this would be a very good explanation for a lot of things, actually. It would give an explanation why Tyrion was raised as a Lannister and not killed, it also explains why Tywin could never bring himself to feel any affection/love for the boy, and why he raised him at his home and did not hand him over to the Citadel or the Faith. And it also explains Tywin's schizophrenic attitude towards Tyrion - on the one hand he raised him as a Lannister but he wants to withhold Casterly Rock from him despite the fact that events have occurred that make Tyrion the legal heir of the lordship. This kind of erratic behavior actually needs an explanation. Conflicting emotions - the promise to Joanna as well as Tywin's issues with her father preventing him from even entertaining the notion to hand his castle and lordship to a bastard - could all explain that.

Tywin is a smart man, he should have been able to see beyond Tyrion's flaws. But he did not. Why is that?

 

Sorry I never got back to you about this.  If that was perceived as rude I apologize.  Of course, I'm well aware you never have posited that Tywin knew Tyrion wasn't his son, I was simply answering your question.  My point was it is much more logical, to me, if Tywin was unclear about Tyrion's birth father.  This explains his ambivalent behavior towards Tyrion quite well in general, and what I subscribe to:  When Tywin believes Jaime is lost to him he puts his faith in Tyrion (thus acknowledging his superior abilities to reign Cersei in at KL), but once Jaime is secured Tyrion's status is expediently reconfigured.  When Cersei is intent on killing Tyrion, Tywin seizes the opportunity to reassert Jaime as his heir, but still spares Tyrion's life on the Wall.  Once again, taking half measures rather than demonstrating true antipathy.

I believe this could only be the case if Tywin did not know - at the most - whether Tyrion was his child or not.  If Tywin knew Aerys defiled Joanna in whatever way, he could not abide it.  Perhaps he would not kill the child while Aerys lived, but afterwards there was no constraint for Tywin to do whatever he wished.  This doesn't mean Tywin necessarily needs to "stoop so low" - although I find it ridiculously hilarious you characterize it as such when we're talking about Tywin - as killing Tyrion, but it does mean he would undoubtedly ensure he was out of the line of succession for well and good.  Hell, placing him with the Maesters in Oldtown sounds like almost like a win-win.  Doubt Tyrion would object. 

So why didn't he?  Because Tywin raised him as his own.  And that's why I still can't wrap my head around this theory, if you then consider the logistics of Tywin somehow not knowing what happened later that night when Aerys crudely insulted Joanna.

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4 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Sorry I never got back to you about this.  If that was perceived as rude I apologize.  Of course, I'm well aware you never have posited that Tywin knew Tyrion wasn't his son, I was simply answering your question.  My point was it is much more logical, to me, if Tywin was unclear about Tyrion's birth father.  This explains his ambivalent behavior towards Tyrion quite well in general, and what I subscribe to:  When Tywin believes Jaime is lost to him he puts his faith in Tyrion (thus acknowledging his superior abilities to reign Cersei in at KL), but once Jaime is secured Tyrion's status is expediently reconfigured.  When Cersei is intent on killing Tyrion, Tywin seizes the opportunity to reassert Jaime as his heir, but still spares Tyrion's life on the Wall.  Once again, taking half measures rather than demonstrating true antipathy.

I believe this could only be the case if Tywin did not know - at the most - whether Tyrion was his child or not.  If Tywin knew Aerys defiled Joanna in whatever way, he could not abide it.  Perhaps he would not kill the child while Aerys lived, but afterwards there was no constraint for Tywin to do whatever he wished.  This doesn't mean Tywin necessarily needs to "stoop so low" - although I find it ridiculously hilarious you characterize it as such when we're talking about Tywin - as killing Tyrion, but it does mean he would undoubtedly ensure he was out of the line of succession for well and good.  Hell, placing him with the Maesters in Oldtown sounds like almost like a win-win.  Doubt Tyrion would object. 

So why didn't he?  Because Tywin raised him as his own.  And that's why I still can't wrap my head around this theory, if you then consider the logistics of Tywin somehow not knowing what happened later that night when Aerys crudely insulted Joanna.

No harm done. I've written so often about this topic that everything becomes a blur anyway.

I'm completely in agreement that Tywin not being sure who Tyrion's father was could work as well. I prefer to think about/envision the other option - Tywin being aware of the truth - because that would, in my opinion, make everything much more interesting. Especially the character of Tywin would become much more layered and complex than the man many people think he was. There would be two layers to this - the revelation of the truth (Tyrion being Aerys' son) as well as additional revelations about Tywin Lannister's true personality and character. And if the public image of Tywin is actually only a caricature of the real man beneath it then it is easily explainable why he never killed Tyrion.

The point of my theory there is that Tywin knowing that Tyrion was Aerys' son would also necessitate a severe change in Tywin's character, another layer added to it that we, the readers, have previously been unaware of. TWoIaF gave us striking insights into the way Tywin was different in his youth - both him publicly laughing about Joanna's jokes three times as well as him actually taking the debts of the Iron Throne on himself (which he later does not even contemplate doing for Joffrey/Tommen, his own grandsons) completely changed the picture of the man we got through the eyes of his children and enemies in the book series.

If you go back to ASoS you will realize, though, that Tywin destroys Tyrion's public image and power in KL long before Jaime even returns to KL. It may be that Tywin has learned about Jaime's escape/release from Riverrun by the time he arrives in KL, or not. But Jaime escaping isn't the same as Jaime safely back at KL as events later show us (and Tywin) so I'd not go as far as connecting Tywin demoting Tyrion after the Blackwater with Jaime's release.

In fact, Tywin shows little concern for Tyrion's well-being despite his heroic efforts, and the idea that this is just (or mostly) due to Cersei telling Tywin stories makes little sense. Tywin never visited Tyrion while he was recovering and conscious again, and there was no hint that Tywin intended for Tyrion to play any important role at court before the decision was made that Littlefinger would go to the Vale and the position of Maester of Coin became vacant.

I see Tywin sending Tyrion to KL as the only thing he felt he could do short of going himself or sending Kevan (which apparently didn't want to).

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dmc and LV--

For whatever it is worth -- I tend to suspect that the readers might find out that Tywin always harbored suspicions that Tyrion was not his -- but could not be sure. When Tywin says something to the effect that he "could not prove" that Tyrion was not Tywin's real son, I suspect Tywin meant is literally. I think Tywin really was never sure. I suspect that over time it became more and more likely to Tywin that Tyrion was really the son of Aerys, but I would think those thoughts would be suppressed.

In Tywin's final moments, I think Tywin finally acknowledged to himself what he always more or less knew -- that Tyrion is "no son of mine." I tend to think that only in that moment does Tywin fully accept the truth -- before that I think Tywin "knew" the truth -- and it influenced Tywin's behavior toward Tyrion -- but Tywin was not willing to acknowledge the truth to himself entirely. 

I also think that LV's position that Tywin knew the truth and kept Tyrion alive for personal reasons -- although risking Tyrion's life from time to time -- also works. I just find that taking the quotes from Tywin to be his "true" thoughts at the time spoken works from a literary point of view and points toward Tywin not being sure till the end.

As to the notion from Jo that the readers will be left to make their own conclusions -- I highly doubt it. I think that if Tyrion really is a Targ bastard, then Jon, Dany and Tyrion acknowledging each other as family will be an important part of the plot.

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@UnmaskedLurker

I'm not sure Tywin did have any deeper insights in the moments of his death. The point of Tywin's rejection of Tyrion as his son can be completely (and quite easily) explained by the fact that he was killed by that son. I assume if I'd be killed by my own son I'd also reject him with my last breath.

As to to Tywin not acknowledging the truth - I'm not sure if the man had such issues. People speculate a lot about the possibility that he never dared to admit the twinscest, either. But we didn't knew the man intimately - he might have been very aware of the incest and the true parentage of Cersei's children but just chose to never address that in conversation with his children.

If there is something to the theory that Tyrion is Aerys' son then we should expect that this is going to be explored more in the books, and somebody most likely will talk about the true story between Aerys, Joanna, and Tywin one way or another.

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I think Tywin was quite masterful at refusing to acknowledge inconvenient truths.  The incest of course is the prime example as LV points out.  But there's also the Jaime as heir thing.  Tywin adamantly refuses to make any specific plans for another heir (either marrying again, or taking one of his nephews as ward to groom for leadership) because he will not admit that Jaime is lost to him.  Jaime will leave the KG and that is all there is to it.

As for Tyrion, I suspect that Tywin would have guessed what happened to Johanna.  Yet even if he guessed, he can't be 100% sure if Johanna won't admit it.  And even if he's right or she admits it, that doesn't mean that Aerys is Tyrions father for certain.  There are no paternity tests in Westeros.  Tywin literally cannot prove that Tyrion is not his son.  The situation is ambiguous enough that Tywin can easily ignore the truth right in front of his face, just as he does with the incest and Jaime inheriting.  While Tyrion is of use, anyway.  When he's got a crossbow pointed at him, Tywin finally admits what he believes to be true, but refused ever to admit.

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16 minutes ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

I think Tywin was quite masterful at refusing to acknowledge inconvenient truths.  The incest of course is the prime example as LV points out.  But there's also the Jaime as heir thing.  Tywin adamantly refuses to make any specific plans for another heir (either marrying again, or taking one of his nephews as ward to groom for leadership) because he will not admit that Jaime is lost to him.  Jaime will leave the KG and that is all there is to it.

As for Tyrion, I suspect that Tywin would have guessed what happened to Johanna.  Yet even if he guessed, he can't be 100% sure if Johanna won't admit it.  And even if he's right or she admits it, that doesn't mean that Aerys is Tyrions father for certain.  There are no paternity tests in Westeros.  Tywin literally cannot prove that Tyrion is not his son.  The situation is ambiguous enough that Tywin can easily ignore the truth right in front of his face, just as he does with the incest and Jaime inheriting.  While Tyrion is of use, anyway.  When he's got a crossbow pointed at him, Tywin finally admits what he believes to be true, but refused ever to admit.

Yeah, hell, if we stick to my 'Promise me, Tywin' scenario on Joanna's deathbed - Joanna asking Tywin not to blame the child for her death and raise it as his own while also admitting that she had slept with Aerys back in KL (or had been raped by him) - in combination with the assumption that Tywin and Joanna had sex on the very same day or the day before Joanna-Aerys. Then it would be indeed literally impossible for Tywin to know for sure who the father was - although if some/many of the children of Aerys and Rhaella who were stillborn or died in the cradle had deformities similar to those of Tyrion (or if some other Targaryen monstrosities throughout the ages had such deformities and nothing of this sort was ever reported for a scion of House Lannister) Tywin would have had at least a very good reason that Tyrion was his son.

In fact, one could argue that this is the same kind of 'proof' Stannis, Jon Arryn, and Ned had about the parentage of Cersei's children before Cersei actually literally confessed the truth.

The problem I have with 'the popular Tywin image' is that many people actually think Tywin would have murdered or sent away Joanna's child if he had known or believed it wasn't his seed. We actually do not know the heart of that man well enough to say that. Especially not in combination with the devotion he had for his wife - if Joanna had begged Tywin with her last breath 'to not blame the child' (either for her infidelity or for the cruelty of his biological father who had raped Joanna) then I find it actually pretty convincing that Tywin would have tried to love the child and raise it as his son as he had promised his wife. He failed at the loving part but would have tried his best to fulfill his promise anyway. I really think those attempts are reflected in Tywin's references to the fact that he allowed Tyrion to bear the Lannister colors and all that. That must have been nearly unbearable for him but if he tried to stick to a promise he made it makes sense.

The heir question is actually very interesting: Tywin might actually have been smart rather than stupid there. By not acknowledging the fact that Jaime was no longer his heir he made things easier for Jaime's eventual return as heir to Casterly Rock because he did not groom another heir who would then have to be pushed aside again.

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3 hours ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

(...)

As to the notion from Jo that the readers will be left to make their own conclusions -- I highly doubt it. I think that if Tyrion really is a Targ bastard, then Jon, Dany and Tyrion acknowledging each other as family will be an important part of the plot.

Yes it will. But I am not sure a clearly revealed A+J=T is necessary for this to happen? Tyrion riding a dragon will be enough reason for Dany to acknowledge him as a brother IMO, he will de facto become one of the Heads of the Dragon when flying alongside Dany ("two men I can trust", "Viserion will achieve what my brother [Viserys] could not").

And in a way it has already happened between Jon and Tyrion on the Wall ("brothers"). And it looks like it will happen between Dany and Tyrion in WoW ("two terrible children from two terrible fathers" - yes I know, I shouldn't mention this...).

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7 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

Yes it will. But I am not sure a clearly revealed A+J=T is necessary for this to happen? Tyrion riding a dragon will be enough reason for Dany to acknowledge him as a brother IMO, he will de facto become one of the Heads of the Dragon when flying alongside Dany ("two men I can trust", "Viserion will achieve what my brother [Viserys] could not").

And in a way it has already happened between Jon and Tyrion on the Wall ("brothers"). And it looks like it will happen between Dany and Tyrion in WoW ("two terrible children from two terrible fathers" - yes I know, I shouldn't mention this...).

Unless we get a good explanation as to how Tyrion could become a dragonrider without Targaryen blood or an explanation how he could have Targaryen blood without being Aerys' son I think it is quite obvious that those revelations will go along hand in hand.

Keen in mind that Daenerys most likely won't be there to witness Tyrion becoming a dragonrider or embrace him as her long-lost brother. And Tyrion will not necessarily deduce that he is, might be, or must be the son of Aerys II. Not unless he receives additional information on Aerys' reign and the relationship between Aerys, Joanna, and Tywin.

Even then things might not yet be actually confirmed - that could come later in the story when Tyrion meets Varys again in Westeros (who might have special knowledge from Aerys (and Tywin) themselves.

But then, Selmy could actually know something similar. He might not only have witnessed Aerys and Joanna having sex in 272 AC, he might also have been privy to conversations between Aerys and Tywin, Tywin and Joanna, Joanna and Aerys, or Aerys and Varys about the topic at hand.

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 There would be two layers to this - the revelation of the truth (Tyrion being Aerys' son) as well as additional revelations about Tywin Lannister's true personality and character. And if the public image of Tywin is actually only a caricature of the real man beneath it then it is easily explainable why he never killed Tyrion.

I agree that this would be interesting, and require quite a bit of revelations about the "real" Tywin.  I also agree the World Book went a long way in humanizing Tywin, he was the star of the book. 

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you go back to ASoS you will realize, though, that Tywin destroys Tyrion's public image and power in KL long before Jaime even returns to KL. It may be that Tywin has learned about Jaime's escape/release from Riverrun by the time he arrives in KL, or not. But Jaime escaping isn't the same as Jaime safely back at KL as events later show us (and Tywin) so I'd not go as far as connecting Tywin demoting Tyrion after the Blackwater with Jaime's release.

In fact, Tywin shows little concern for Tyrion's well-being despite his heroic efforts, and the idea that this is just (or mostly) due to Cersei telling Tywin stories makes little sense. Tywin never visited Tyrion while he was recovering and conscious again, and there was no hint that Tywin intended for Tyrion to play any important role at court before the decision was made that Littlefinger would go to the Vale and the position of Maester of Coin became vacant.

Yes, that was clunky writing on my part - although I do generally operate under the assumption Tywin was in contact with Roose (and Walder) very shortly after the Blackwater, and thus likely to not only be aware of Jaime's escape but have much more confidence in eventually getting him back.  The point is Tywin clearly elevates Tyrion immediately upon hearing of Jaime's capture, granting him the ability to demonstrate his worthiness as an heir (not only to Tywin, but to others as well).  I fundamentally disagree that Tywin would ever have done this if he knew Tyrion was not his son - at least the Tywin we are told about as up to this point.

 

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I see Tywin sending Tyrion to KL as the only thing he felt he could do short of going himself or sending Kevan (which apparently didn't want to).

Well, there's also the "You are my son" line, which is a pretty big thing to ignore.  Reading their discussion right before that, it is clear Tywin believes Tyrion is one of the few people able to bring Cersei and Joffrey to heel:

Quote

"If Cersei cannot curb the boy, you must.  And if these councillors are playing us false..."

Tyrion knew.  "Spikes," he sighed.  "Heads.  Walls."

"I see you have taken a few lessons from me."

Again, this shows the mixed feelings Tywin has about Tyrion in general - here he's inclined to entrust him with perhaps the greatest responsibility whereas the previous chapter he was ridiculing and making a fool of Tyrion in front of his war council.  To me, this fits a lot better with either thinking Tyrion is his son or being unsure than if he knew Tyrion was not.

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