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UnmaskedLurker

A+J=T v.9

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4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

@Lord Varys,

I said nothing about Joanna leaving the next day. I said she would return to Casterly Rock, I did not say when, or how long/quickly after the feast where the insult was made.

As to why I'd say that "since I cannot proof" is not a lie... There were 25 years between Tyrion's birth and the start of the series. If Tywin had known for certainty that Tyrion was Aerys's son, he had plenty of time to act on it. And we have gotten zero hints of any such for those years.

Well, but why should he act on it at all. He decided to raise the child as his son, why change that policy?

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, but why should he act on it at all. He decided to raise the child as his son, why change that policy?

Sorry for butting in, but there's a huge ass reason Tywin would change said policy if he had any type of 'proof' Tyrion was Aerys'.  Aerys, and the Targs-at-large, were destroyed when Tyrion was ~ 10.  Tywin continuing to raise Tyrion as a Lannister - if he knew he was Aerys' - has no face validity to me.  You said:

Quote

Tywin obviously doesn't want Tyrion (or anyone else) realize/know that Tyrion is Aerys' bastard. That's the whole point of raising him as his son, after all. Secretly raising the king's bastard is better than everybody knowing that you have been cuckolded by the king. But that doesn't mean that Tywin doesn't know the truth or doesn't have 'proof'.

That's plausible while Aerys is alive, and king, but afterwards Tywin has a 10-year-old dwarf that can easily be dispensed with.  Without anyone knowing he had been "cuckolded."  I suppose this is where you pivot to his love for Joanna...

Also, @Lost Melnibonean - Great Find!  Love that symbolic shit, and why I want AJT to happen.  Only thing I don't get is the characterization of the "Jon" representative.

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@dmc515

Well, it is not my job to write stuff that necessarily convinces you, right?

If you check my writings then I never said 'Tywin did know Tyrion wasn't his son'. I just provided possible explanations for scenarios in which this was the case. I never said those scenarios have to be the case, nor am I necessarily convinced that Tywin knew for a certainty that Tyrion wasn't his seed. 

If you step as low as asking why the hell Tywin didn't just murder his dwarf son - who was an abomination, a disappointment, and not much use regardless who is father was - then you have to argue that the deciding factor must have been Tywin's love for Joanna, the mother of the boy, and his loyalty to House Lannister.

We know that Tywin raised Gerion's bastard Joy Hill at Casterly Rock, too, so there is a pretty strong hint that he wouldn't just kill a Lannister bastard - and if Aerys was Tyrion's father then the boy is as much a Lannister bastard (through Joanna) as he is a Targaryen bastard.

However, I'd not be surprised one bit if it turned out that Tyrion was a sort of twisted mirror image of Jon Snow in more than one occasion. Not just being a bastard disguised as a legitimate son, but also being (sort of) protected by a similar promise as Jon Snow was. When Lyanna died Ned gave her a promise, and when Joanna died Tywin may have given her a similar promise - to not blame the child for her, Joanna's, infidelity, and to raise Aerys' bastard as his own son.

If there is anything to Tywin's devotion to his wife this would be a very good explanation for a lot of things, actually. It would give an explanation why Tyrion was raised as a Lannister and not killed, it also explains why Tywin could never bring himself to feel any affection/love for the boy, and why he raised him at his home and did not hand him over to the Citadel or the Faith. And it also explains Tywin's schizophrenic attitude towards Tyrion - on the one hand he raised him as a Lannister but he wants to withhold Casterly Rock from him despite the fact that events have occurred that make Tyrion the legal heir of the lordship. This kind of erratic behavior actually needs an explanation. Conflicting emotions - the promise to Joanna as well as Tywin's issues with her father preventing him from even entertaining the notion to hand his castle and lordship to a bastard - could all explain that.

Tywin is a smart man, he should have been able to see beyond Tyrion's flaws. But he did not. Why is that?

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Personally, I think that the simplest explanation for Tywin's actions would be that he suspected, but didn't know for sure. Like, Joanna might have behaved strangely during her pregnancy with Tyrion and/or Aerys made some kind of remark after she gave birth, which could have roused his suspicions, but he never would have got a confirmation.

He might have lived in uncertainty as to whether Tyrion is his child or Aerys'. That would mean he would not let Tyrion inherit Casterly Rock in a million years, but at the same time he could have felt obligated to care for him and certainly wouldn't kill him (the kinslayer taboo is strong). Just in case, because he simply didn't know.

Edited by lojzelote

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31 minutes ago, lojzelote said:

Personally, I think that the simplest explanation for Tywin's actions would be that he suspected, but didn't know for sure. Like, Joanna might have behaved strangely during her pregnancy with Tyrion and/or Aerys made some kind of remark after she gave birth, which could have roused his suspicions, but he never would have got a confirmation.

He might have lived in uncertainty as to whether Tyrion is his child or Aerys'. That would mean he would not let Tyrion inherit Casterly Rock in a million years, but at the same time he could have felt obligated to care for him and certainly wouldn't kill him (the kinslayer taboo is strong). Just in case, because he simply didn't know.

That is, of course, also a possibility. But nearly as intriguing from a character POV as the idea that Tywin knew and still raised Tyrion as his son. That would make him a much more complex and intriguing character than assuming he would have killed Joanna's son had he known that he wasn't fathered by him.

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39 minutes ago, lojzelote said:

Personally, I think that the simplest explanation for Tywin's actions would be that he suspected, but didn't know for sure. Like, Joanna might have behaved strangely during her pregnancy with Tyrion and/or Aerys made some kind of remark after she gave birth, which could have roused his suspicions, but he never would have got a confirmation.

He might have lived in uncertainty as to whether Tyrion is his child or Aerys'. That would mean he would not let Tyrion inherit Casterly Rock in a million years, but at the same time he could have felt obligated to care for him and certainly wouldn't kill him (the kinslayer taboo is strong). Just in case, because he simply didn't know.

I agree. I think The George intended it (Tywin is afterall only a figment of the author's imagination) to be a nagging suspicion, though. 

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22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, but why should he act on it at all. He decided to raise the child as his son, why change that policy?

Because, if he knew Tyrion was Aerys's son, Tyrion would have been an insult to Tywin. And not reacting to an insult, even one that isn't public, doesn't seem to fit with Tywin's character. 

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5 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Because, if he knew Tyrion was Aerys's son, Tyrion would have been an insult to Tywin. And not reacting to an insult, even one that isn't public, doesn't seem to fit with Tywin's character. 

I really don't follow. If for whatever reason, Tywin decided to present Tyrion as his own son, the death of Aerys would not necessarily change that decision. Tywin really ONLY cares about public insults -- I don't think he cares about private insults AT ALL. If Tywin is the only person alive who knows about the insult -- Tywin does not care. He cares about the Lannister image and reputation. For example -- sleep with whores, as long as no one knows about it -- but don't humiliate the family with a public concubine.

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Just now, UnmaskedLurker said:

I really don't follow. If for whatever reason, Tywin decided to present Tyrion as his own son, the death of Aerys would not necessarily change that decision. Tywin really ONLY cares about public insults -- I don't think he cares about private insults AT ALL. If Tywin is the only person alive who knows about the insult -- Tywin does not care. He cares about the Lannister image and reputation. For example -- sleep with whores, as long as no one knows about it -- but don't humiliate the family with a public concubine.

Elia was a non-public insult in Tywin's eyes, wasn't she? Tywin had refused her for his own "golden heir", and despite the fact that he had made it clear to the Princess of Dorne that Cersei would marry Rhaegar, the Princess went ahead and was involved in arranging a betrothal of Elia to Rhaegar anyway. 

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1 minute ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Elia was a non-public insult in Tywin's eyes, wasn't she? Tywin had refused her for his own "golden heir", and despite the fact that he had made it clear to the Princess of Dorne that Cersei would marry Rhaegar, the Princess went ahead and was involved in arranging a betrothal of Elia to Rhaegar anyway. 

What is your point? It was not really that private -- and it had real consequences that he really cared about -- Cersei would not be in line to become queen. Totally different than agreeing to raise Tyrion as his own son -- and we really don't know if Tywin made a promise to Joanna.

I see three basic alternatives: (1) Tywin did not know for sure but sort of knew it in the back of his mind and so some of the references (like cannot prove you are not mine) are more subconscious but only at the time of his death does he fully accept that Tyrion really was the son of Aerys; (2) Tywin promised Joanna to keep Tyrion safe and raise Tyrion as Tywin's son; or (3) Tyrion strongly suspects but could not be 100% certain (thus "cannot prove . . . ") but pretty much knew and came to completely accept the reality at his death. Not sure which is correct -- but any variation could work.

Of course there are other variations and possibilities -- like maybe Tywin never knew at all (but I have come to really doubt that alternative). But I think the three outlined above are the three realistic possibilities. Quibbling over one or the other is not really the point -- the point is that GRRM could make any one work, and so I strongly disagree with those who say that Tywin would have killed Tyrion. I really don't see why Tywin would have done so when GRRM has many possible ways to explain why Tywin did not.

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36 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

What is your point? It was not really that private -- and it had real consequences that he really cared about -- Cersei would not be in line to become queen. Totally different than agreeing to raise Tyrion as his own son -- and we really don't know if Tywin made a promise to Joanna.

Cersei being refused by Aerys was public. Tywin's conversation with the Princess of Dorne, and his expression of his desire to her, was private. 

Raising Tyrion as his own son, whilst knowing that he was really Aerys's son, had consequences as well. Tyrion would always still have a legal claim to Casterly Rock, and Tyrion inheriting CR was the one thing Tywin did not want happening.

 

Quote

I see three basic alternatives: (1) Tywin did not know for sure but sort of knew it in the back of his mind and so some of the references (like cannot prove you are not mine) are more subconscious but only at the time of his death does he fully accept that Tyrion really was the son of Aerys; (2) Tywin promised Joanna to keep Tyrion safe and raise Tyrion as Tywin's son; or (3) Tyrion strongly suspects but could not be 100% certain (thus "cannot prove . . . ") but pretty much knew and came to completely accept the reality at his death. Not sure which is correct -- but any variation could work.

Of course there are other variations and possibilities -- like maybe Tywin never knew at all (but I have come to really doubt that alternative). But I think the three outlined above are the three realistic possibilities. Quibbling over one or the other is not really the point -- the point is that GRRM could make any one work, and so I strongly disagree with those who say that Tywin would have killed Tyrion. I really don't see why Tywin would have done so when GRRM has many possible ways to explain why Tywin did not.

I can see two possibilities. 1) Tywin cannot believe that he could possibly have conceived someone like Tyrion, or 2) there was something that made him suspect Tyrion was not his son. 

But if Tywin had been certain, I do doubt at the moment that he would have simply allowed Tyrion to be raised at CR as his own son. Tyrion doesn't have to be killed, necessarily, in such a scenario. Sending the child away, or having him be raised by another, is always a possibility too, that would have separated Tywin from the child, taken away Tyrion's claim to CR, and still enabled Tywin to keep an eye on him.

 

Edit: that doesn't take away the main issue I have with this theory, though. Why would Joanna sleep with Aerys willingly, after he insulted her so severely and so publicly? And if he forced himself on her, how can no one have noticed?

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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32 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Because, if he knew Tyrion was Aerys's son, Tyrion would have been an insult to Tywin. And not reacting to an insult, even one that isn't public, doesn't seem to fit with Tywin's character. 

I agree. If Tywin knew and could prove that Tyrion was Aerys's son, especially after the death of Joanna, he would have thrown Tyrion to the dogs himself. It's only because he couldn't prove Tyrion was not his son that he kept him.

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1 minute ago, John Courage said:

I agree. If Tywin knew and could prove that Tyrion was Aerys's son, especially after the death of Joanna, he would have thrown Tyrion to the dogs himself. It's only because he couldn't prove Tyrion was not his son that he kept him.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that Tywin would have necessarily seen no other choice but to kill Tyrion. But there would have been a reaction (any kind of reaction), and that would have included not  allowing Tyrion to grow up as Tywin's son, since that would give him a potential claim to CR.

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen

Tywin did decide to raise Tyrion as his own son, and he did not care about the implications. He thought he could do whatever the hell he want, and preventing his dwarf son from ever inheriting Casterly Rock would have been a rather easy task by comparison to the things the man actually accomplished.

If Cersei hadn't been married to King Robert things might have been tricky in that department, but there are a number of strong points speaking against Tyrion as Tywin's heir:

(1) Tywin Lannister never formally recognized/anointed/raised/groomed Tyrion as the heir to Casterly Rock. Instead he mostly hid him from the public and treated him like shit in front of his lords.

(2) The probability that a majority of the Lords of the West would actually want to be ruled by an ugly dwarf should be pretty low. There are plenty of other golden-haired and handsome Lannisters around, and if Kevan was to support either Cersei or one of her sons upon Tywin's sudden death (or make a bid for Casterly Rock himself) then a majority of the Lords most likely would support him rather than defend Tyrion's legal claim. As things stand Kevan really is sort of Tywin's heir-presumptive considering that he is his brother's closest confidant and the man he keeps around all the time.

(3) Robert and Cersei both would have greatly profited had the lordship and wealth of Casterly Rock passed into the royal family after Tywin's death - either if Cersei became Lady of Casterly or if one of her sons had taken the title. In that sense it is quite clear that the Iron Throne wouldn't have had any issues to prevent Tyrion from becoming Lord of Casterly Rock via royal decree.

In addition, you have to keep in mind that Tywin always had the option to destroy Tyrion's claim by publicly revealing that Tyrion was in fact not his son but Aerys' bastard. He never got around to say that directly (although one really wonders what his next sentence would have been had Tyrion not interrupted him on the privy/had he lived another couple of minutes). Tyrion would have had no way of defending his status and rights had his father suddenly risen from his bed one day and announced to the public that Tyrion wasn't actually his seed but a bastard. Nobody would have ever stood up to defend the rights of an ugly dwarf.

But the idea that we all know Tywin's heart and know what he would have done in this or that situation isn't based on any evidence. We don't know his heart and there is no situation we can compare this to. What Tywin did to the Reynes and Tarbecks, Elia and her children, or later the peasants in the Riverlands or Robb, the Tullys, and the Northmen via the Red Wedding isn't necessarily in the same category.

Whoever Tyrion's father was he also was family and had Lannister blood. He would also always remain his beloved Joanna's son. We don't even have to assume that Joanna confessed everything to Tywin, he could just have made a promise to her to not blame the child for her death and raise the boy as their son as they would have done together had she lived, or something of that sort.

The way the Joanna-Tywin relationship is set up makes it very likely that the man couldn't bring himself to harm her son, even if he was a dwarf and a bastard.

If you go with the hardhearted version of Tywin who would either murder or severely mistreat an innocent Lannister child then one really has to wonder why Tyrion lived at all. Tyrion being potentially a bastard is just one side of the coin. The other is the fact that Tyrion is an ugly dwarf who could never be a proper Lord of Casterly Rock in Tywin's mind. And if you are usually okay with the murder of children (which Tywin actually is) then it is only a very small step from murdering some child to murdering your own ugly child you have no use for. Especially if you rationalize it the way Cersei would have: That the child would have died anyway.

The idea of Tywin sending Tyrion away and raising him with someone else doesn't make much sense. That would have cast doubt on Tyrion's parentage as well as Joanna's character - something Tywin really tried to avoid. Fostering is usually not done when the child is very young and it is also part of a deal among nobles. As son of the Lord of Casterly Rock Tyrion would have to be raised in a very prestigious family, and there is pretty big chance that this wouldn't have been easy to accomplish. Just look how the Redwynes ended up rejecting Samwell as a ward.

And we also have to keep in mind that Tywin was at court most of the time during Tyrion's childhood, so he had no need to send him away.

Finally I see a problem in the interpretation of Tywin's character insofar as revenge and retaliation are concerned. Tywin didn't want to seat Robert Baratheon on the Iron Throne. He wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar (or later Viserys). He wanted her to be the queen at the side of a Targaryen king. And most of all he wanted to be Aerys' best friend again, he wanted that the man apologized for him, allowed his son to leave the Kingsguard, and asked him to return to court as Hand so that everything would be as it once was.

That is pretty evident from Kevan's Epilogue where Kevan and Tywin actually hoped that Aerys would call Tywin back to court as late as the Battle of the Bells. We know that Rhaegar asked his father to write to Tywin and make such an apology, and it seems that he did. After all, Tywin's army must have begun marching east long before the Trident or else his army couldn't have been at KL prior to Ned's host.

In that sense it is actually not unlikely that Tywin was on his way either to the Trident or to KL with the intention to support the Targaryens but changed his mind when he learned about Rhaegar's death.

Many people seem to fool themselves into assuming that Tywin always wanted to get rid of Aerys since this or that humiliation, but there is actually no evidence to support such an idea.

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@Lord Varys,

 

Tywin never specifically named Tyrion heir, yet, Tyrion was the only son he had with a claim after Jaime joined the KG, and as such, he still had a legal claim. One any enemies of Tywin or Cersei might have wanted to make use of, should the oppertunity have presented itself.

You first argue that Tywin "obviously doesn't want Tyrion (or anyone else) realize/know that Tyrion is Aerys' bastard", and now you argue that Tywin would have been willing to reveal that fact himself in order to prevent Tyrion from getting CR, if need be? That sounds a bit contradictory. Additionally, revealing that Tyrion was a bastard would have brought on the laughter he so mistrusted, now wouldn't it?

What Tywin did to the Reyne's, Tarbecks, Starks, Tully's, etc. is still all part of his character. And sure, whoever Tyrion's father was, Joanna was still his mother. But, say that Tywin knew Tyrion wasn't his, as you have proposed, was Joanna still "his beloved Joanna" after this discovery? "He was not the same man after she died. The best part of him died with her.".

I wasn't speaking of fostering Tyrion with anyone. Tyrion, as a newborn, was expected to die. That would have provided Tywin with an oppertunity, would he have wished to take it. Let the news spread that the child has died, but in truth, have him raised somewhere else. The argument that Tywin had no reason to act against Tyrion because he was away at KL most of the time anyone is not really logical to me. Having to see Tyrion every day or not is not what would have mattered, but what Tyrion represented, and what he would be representing in the future. 

Of course Tywin didn't plan for seating Robert on the throne. He wanted Cersei to become Queen, and Rhaegar was the best candidate for having her become queen (and her son the future king). Rhaegar married another, but the relation between Rhaegar and Aerys was deteriorating quickly, up to a level as Aegon IV/Daeron II, and there was already talk of Viserys becoming heir, so Viserys (as per Jaime's statement) apparently became Tywin's next goal, keeping Cersei at court (recall that she had arrived before Rhaegar was betrothed, though it is possible the betrothal-talks with the Martells had already begun).

Where do you get the idea that Tywin most of all wanted to be Aerys's friend again? I think that that ship had sailed a while ago, and that at best, a shadow of the former friendship might have eventually come to be again, but it would have taken quite a lot of time. I agree with the rest though. Tywin wanted Aerys to release Jaime from the KG, be rewarded for his decades of loyal service, to acknowledged by the King for all his work. Being named Hand once more, would have been part of that. Asking Tywin to become Hand again during the Rebellion would have been Aerys showing Tywin how he needed him, and judging by the fact that Aerys did eventually ask Tywin for help, but Tywin refusing to respond, I suppose that it is possible that Tywin wanted Aerys to beg for his help. Only when the war was about to reach its most determining point, did Tywin finally act.

I agree with you on the last part. Tywin's army would have gathered his army before the Trident was ever fought. Technically, it shouldn't be possible to march from CR to KL within a smaller perido of time than it would have taken Ned to march from the Trident to KL. Only a fortnight passed between the Trident and the Sack, after all. Tywin had already gathered his soldiers, and most likely had already begun to march before that battle was ever fought, and, based on the outcome, made his decision. Had Rhaegar won, Tywin would have expressed loyalty to Aerys and protected the city from the left-over rebel forces. But Rhaegar lost, and thus, Tywin expressed his loyalty to the rebels by sacking KL.

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen

The idea is that revealing Tyrion's true heritage would be Tywin's final weapon to prevent his son's succession to Casterly Rock. Something he would only do when he had no other choice because he doesn't want to reveal if he can prevent it.

Imagine Tyrion and not Tywin being the Hero of the Hour after the Blackwater. Somehow Tyrion saved the day. And it is Tywin who was captured by the enemy and returned only mutilated (perhaps the way Jaime was, perhaps the way Tyland Lannister was). In that scenario Tywin wouldn't have been able to prevent Tyrion from claiming Casterly Rock as the next lord the way he effectively did that in ASoS.

Tywin took away all the power Tyrion had acquired in ACoK and he effectively destroyed him as a person of rank by refusing to reward or celebrate him. Make no mistake - had Tywin publicly embraced Tyrion, granted him titles, and told everybody how brave his son had been the entire court and city would have followed suit. It is Tywin's treatment of Tyrion - his example - that makes Tyrion the pariah he is after the Blackwater.

And Tywin actually knows that Tyrion is a capable man and administrator. That is why he names him Acting Hand when he thinks he needs him. But he throws him away again, and there has to be a really good reason for that. A Tywin who can see Tyrion's abilities and strength should also be able to get over the dwarf issue.

As to Tywin's feelings for Joanna:

Well, if Joanna told Tywin on her bed that she had sex with Aerys because she wanted to and that she enjoyed it as much as she did in the past his love for her might indeed sort of died with her. But that still doesn't mean that he would have been able to kill Joanna's son - and he would have certainly have had no reason for that if Joanna was forced to have sex with Aerys or told she did it for them, or something like that.

But I'd actually say that Joanna's loss might not have been the only thing that changed Tywin.

Hm. Faking the death of child like Tyrion would have been difficult. And it would have been cheap. I really don't see a man like Tywin do something like that.

The reason why I think Tywin really wanted to be Aerys' friend again, to regain his affection is that this is the best explanation for a number of things:

First there is the amount of shit Tywin is willing to take from both Aerys and his cronies. Shit he wouldn't take from anyone else. What makes him continue to serve as Hand for all those years? Why does he continue to perform as well as can rather than doing business as usual? Why does he wait so long with an attack during the Defiance of Duskendale? He is the Hand, the power is his, nobody could contradict him if he decided to use the king's army to free the king. Why would Tywin even want to marry his only daughter to the son of a man who treats him like that.

Finally there is Tywin's behavior during the Rebellion. During the War of the Five Kings he doesn't care about Jaime being a hostage. Back then he apparently did. Because unless Tywin wanted to regain Aerys' favor the only reason why he should join the rebels would be the fear for his son.

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On April 19, 2016 at 5:17 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Cersei being refused by Aerys was public. Tywin's conversation with the Princess of Dorne, and his expression of his desire to her, was private. 

Raising Tyrion as his own son, whilst knowing that he was really Aerys's son, had consequences as well. Tyrion would always still have a legal claim to Casterly Rock, and Tyrion inheriting CR was the one thing Tywin did not want happening.

 

I can see two possibilities. 1) Tywin cannot believe that he could possibly have conceived someone like Tyrion, or 2) there was something that made him suspect Tyrion was not his son. 

But if Tywin had been certain, I do doubt at the moment that he would have simply allowed Tyrion to be raised at CR as his own son. Tyrion doesn't have to be killed, necessarily, in such a scenario. Sending the child away, or having him be raised by another, is always a possibility too, that would have separated Tywin from the child, taken away Tyrion's claim to CR, and still enabled Tywin to keep an eye on him.

 

Edit: that doesn't take away the main issue I have with this theory, though. Why would Joanna sleep with Aerys willingly, after he insulted her so severely and so publicly? And if he forced himself on her, how can no one have noticed?

If Aerys actually raped Johanna during that meeting there's a good reason we don't know about it - because GRRM doesn't want us to be so sure about Tyrions parentage yet.  Similar reason why Dany doesn't know about what Aerys did to the Starks yet - the plot demands it.

That hardly means that "no one" knows what happened though.  In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Barristan might have suspicions. 

Finally I think it's far more likely that a rape would be kept a secret than a consensual affair.  Rape in Westeros - at least of the high born - is an illegal act with mortal consequences.  Consensual sex not as much.

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10 hours ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

If Aerys actually raped Johanna during that meeting there's a good reason we don't know about it - because GRRM doesn't want us to be so sure about Tyrions parentage yet.  Similar reason why Dany doesn't know about what Aerys did to the Starks yet - the plot demands it.

That hardly means that "no one" knows what happened though.  In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Barristan might have suspicions. 

Finally I think it's far more likely that a rape would be kept a secret than a consensual affair.  Rape in Westeros - at least of the high born - is an illegal act with mortal consequences.  Consensual sex not as much.

I wasn't speaking of "how could we, the readers, not yet know?". I was speaking of the characters in the story, and that's quite a difference. More specifically, I am looking at Tywin.

The walls of the Red Keep have ears. With Varys's little birds running through the walls that is more true than ever, but even long before Varys came to King's Landing, that was already an established fact. In addition, summoning Joanna would have meant summoning her from the Tower of the Hand, or publicly at the feast, and in both of those cases, Tywin would have known. Yet, if he knew, why would he give up on trying to resign when Aerys refuses to allow it? That does not come across as a man who is aware of the fact that his boss has slept with his wife the night before (whether it was consentual or not, but especially in the case that it hadn't been)

 

There are some scenarios that I could see working out, in favor of this theory, and every now and then I come across a quote that makes me wonder again. But there's always still something missing, and other possibilities remain, and thus, I am not yet convinced.

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1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I wasn't speaking of "how could we, the readers, not yet know?". I was speaking of the characters in the story, and that's quite a difference. More specifically, I am looking at Tywin.

When it comes to a story, these are one and the same though. 

If GRRM needs something to be a secret, it will be a secret.  Even if sometimes it stretches credulity (though I don't think that's the case here)..

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The walls of the Red Keep have ears. With Varys's little birds running through the walls that is more true than ever, but even long before Varys came to King's Landing, that was already an established fact. In addition, summoning Joanna would have meant summoning her from the Tower of the Hand, or publicly at the feast, and in both of those cases, Tywin would have known.

KL was Johannas home for several years.   She likely had friends and would have felt free to move about on her own while they were visiting.  Her children would be looked after by their nurse so I seriously doubt she was nailed to the floor in the tower of the hand.  Meanwhile Tywin would likely have been busy at work as he always was.  

If Johanna felt "creeped out" by Aerys - which I suspect - she probably would have tried to avoid being alone with him.  But it wouldn't have been too hard for one of his KG (or some other toady) to find her en route somewhere (like to visit the queen or one of her friends still in the queens service) and redirect her to the Kings chambers "discreetly".  Johanna would not be in a position to resist even though she would fear what Aerys might do.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Yet, if he knew, why would he give up on trying to resign when Aerys refuses to allow it? That does not come across as a man who is aware of the fact that his boss has slept with his wife the night before (whether it was consentual or not, but especially in the case that it hadn't been)

My best guess is Tywin did not know exactly what happened because Johanna refused to say.  Because she would not want Tywin to start a war over it.  But, Tywin probably guessed that Aerys had done something awful to her because she would have been very upset when she returned to the tower of the hand.  

And why would Tywin continue to serve Aerys as hand if he thought he might have raped Or Assaulted Johanna?  Well, he did attempt to resign immediately.  I don't think a single insulting comment is really significant enough to warrent such a move - suspecting Aerys had physically attacked Johanna would be.  But without proof or even Johannas admission he could only suspect.  In any case as hand, Tywin is in a good position to ultimately get power over Aerys.  Which he did - int he next few years people understood who was really running the kingdom and this infuriated Aerys.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

There are some scenarios that I could see working out, in favor of this theory, and every now and then I come across a quote that makes me wonder again. But there's always still something missing, and other possibilities remain, and thus, I am not yet convinced.

Fair enough.

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@Lord Varys,

 

If Joanna had confessed on her deathbed to having had consentual sex with Aerys, why would Tywin still willingly raise Tyrion like his own trueborn son? And if it had been rape, why would Joanna endanger the life of her child by telling Tywin? For all she knew, Tywin believed the rumors about the affair and would assume she was lying now, and that the encounter had been consentual.

Whatever happened, Joanna was dying, and thus, she would no longer be around to protect her young son. So why would she ever tell Tywin that Tyrion isn't his? Best case scenario, Tyein begrudgingly allows Tyrion to be raised amongst his relatives. Worst case scenario, he dies. Hundreds of possibilities in between, of course, but would a mother ever risk that? The best ensurance Joanna would have had that Tyrion would grow up safe, was to let Tywin believe he was the father. Why would she risk it?

 

What else do you think changed Tywin?

 

As to why Tywin would be willing to endure so much; he has his eyes set on the price. He had done so much to elevate House Lannister, securing a royal marriage would have been the ultimate elevation. His grandchild would sit the Iron Throne. That's quite a few steps up from the lord whose own bannermen refused to take him seriously.

 

And Tywin might say that he feared for Jamie's life as Aerys's hostage, but I do have the general feeling that that was only at the end of the war. Else, Tywin would have bestirred himself much sooner from CR. Ignoring summons from your king generally doesn't make the outcome look positive for the hostage.

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