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UnmaskedLurker

A+J=T v.9

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40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Unless we get a good explanation as to how Tyrion could become a dragonrider without Targaryen blood or an explanation how he could have Targaryen blood without being Aerys' son I think it is quite obvious that those revelations will go along hand in hand.

Keen in mind that Daenerys most likely won't be there to witness Tyrion becoming a dragonrider or embrace him as her long-lost brother. And Tyrion will not necessarily deduce that he is, might be, or must be the son of Aerys II. Not unless he receives additional information on Aerys' reign and the relationship between Aerys, Joanna, and Tywin.

Even then things might not yet be actually confirmed - that could come later in the story when Tyrion meets Varys again in Westeros (who might have special knowledge from Aerys (and Tywin) themselves.

But then, Selmy could actually know something similar. He might not only have witnessed Aerys and Joanna having sex in 272 AC, he might also have been privy to conversations between Aerys and Tywin, Tywin and Joanna, Joanna and Aerys, or Aerys and Varys about the topic at hand.

I think we have to disagree here LV. My counter is that the bolded above is exactly why we (or Westeros) do not need a good explanation or irrefutable revelation on Tyrion's paternity. I think that, just like Tywin did, many people suspect Tyrion is Aerys' son but nobody can definitely prove it (No witness! And even Joanna was not sure who the father was IMO). So the dragon riding is all that we will get - and this will be enough for all to link it with the other dot (Joanna the former paramour of Aerys etc) and acknowledge it because it will serve their purpose (Dany, Varys, Jon... Tyrion himself?). As for Dany not witnessing Tyrion becoming a dragonrider, well witnessing the end result (Tyrion rescuing her with Viserion? Or just Tyrion flying.) will be more than enough to convince her IMO.

Edited by Jo Maltese

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1 hour ago, Jo Maltese said:

Yes it will. But I am not sure a clearly revealed A+J=T is necessary for this to happen? Tyrion riding a dragon will be enough reason for Dany to acknowledge him as a brother IMO, he will de facto become one of the Heads of the Dragon when flying alongside Dany ("two men I can trust", "Viserion will achieve what my brother [Viserys] could not").

And in a way it has already happened between Jon and Tyrion on the Wall ("brothers"). And it looks like it will happen between Dany and Tyrion in WoW ("two terrible children from two terrible fathers" - yes I know, I shouldn't mention this...).

I don't think it is enough for them to consider themselves part of a "virtual" family -- I think the important part will be the brother-sister-nephew-aunt-uncle relationship that forms when they realize their true blood relationship. Each has or will have come to believe that they are more or less alone (Jon less than the other two as he still has his cousins -- but he thought they were his siblings). Finding out that they are the three remaining Targs is a big deal -- and I simply cannot imagine that GRRM would give up on the opportunity to make a big deal out of it among the three of them.

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5 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I don't think it is enough for them to consider themselves part of a "virtual" family -- I think the important part will be the brother-sister-nephew-aunt-uncle relationship that forms when they realize their true blood relationship. Each has or will have come to believe that they are more or less alone (Jon less than the other two as he still has his cousins -- but he thought they were his siblings). Finding out that they are the three remaining Targs is a big deal -- and I simply cannot imagine that GRRM would give up on the opportunity to make a big deal out of it among the three of them.

But me thinks there will be no more remaining Targ in the end... Just Tyrion...

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@dmc515

Timeline-wise the idea that Tywin would already have been in contact with Walder/Roose immediately after the Blackwater doesn't make much sense. The news of the Blackwater first had to travel to Harrenhal and the Twins before Roose/Walder could begin making new plans - and Tywin had to receive sufficient information about the situation in the other parts of the Realm before he would consider offering Roose and Walder anything - or react to any offers they make to him.

I'm pretty sure Tywin was already in the process of convincing Roose and Walder to join him when Tyrion confronted him in his solar early on in ASoS but it makes little sense to assume that he already had such knowledge in the first few days after the Blackwater.

I'm not inclined to believe Tywin is articulating actual affection (or even recognition) when he calls Tyrion his son in AGoT. If that had been the case one would have expected him to actually visit and reward him, not to mention to demonstrate both gratitude for his service as well as happiness that he would/had recover(ed). But Tywin did nothing of this sort.

He correctly guessed that Tyrion would be able to ensure that Joff and Cersei wouldn't do anymore follies but that doesn't mean he thought he was his son (or that he liked him). It just showed that he was willing to use him as a tool in the war.

And I really don't think Tywin considered KL the greatest responsibility during the war, either. If that had been the case he would have gone to KL himself or he would have sent Kevan. In fact, if he had actually cherished Tyrion he would have given him command of the Lannister in his stead - Jaime had been given command of his own army, after all. But that clearly would have been interpreted as a sign that Tyrion was Tywin's heir - whereas being Acting Hand with no power base in KL wasn't exactly a great position.

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45 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

I think we have to disagree here LV. My counter is that the bolded above is exactly why we (or Westeros) do not need a good explanation or irrefutable revelation on Tyrion's paternity. I think that, just like Tywin did, many people suspect Tyrion is Aerys' son but nobody can definitely prove it (No witness! And even Joanna was not sure who the father was IMO). So the dragon riding is all that we will get - and this will be enough for all to link it with the other dot (Joanna the former paramour of Aerys etc) and acknowledge it because it will serve their purpose (Dany, Varys, Jon... Tyrion himself?). As for Dany not witnessing Tyrion becoming a dragonrider, well witnessing the end result (Tyrion rescuing her with Viserion? Or just Tyrion flying.) will be more than enough to convince her IMO.

I'm not saying that's not going to work but I think there is too little foreshadowing for such an idea to work. Tyrion himself seems to have no idea who his father could be if it isn't Tywin, and neither does any other (Lannister) POV we have met so far. The idea that 'everybody' (or just a majority of people) is going to declare or believe that Tyrion is a Aerys' son is a pretty big stretch - especially because he is at Slaver's Bay right now and completely cut off from Westerosi knowledge if we exclude Barristan (who could offer more than mere rumors). Victarion most likely is no good source for court gossip.

Dany has no reason to even believe her father had sex with Joanna at the right time - not unless she receives additional information. Ulf, Hugh, and Nettles also weren't proclaimed Targaryen bastards fathered by this or that prince or king simply because they became dragonriders - and the same could easily be Tyrion's fate.

I think I've already said that once somewhere - Tyrion or other dragonlore specialists might simply try to speculate or look for a Targaryen ancestor of the Lannister line in the more distant past rather than thinking about Joanna/Aerys.

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42 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

But me thinks there will be no more remaining Targ in the end... Just Tyrion...

That is not what I meant. I think it very possible that one or two of the three main characters die -- although I am not as convinced as you that the survivor will be Tyrion.

I was talking about being family in the lead up to the War -- fighting as the Three Heads of the Dragon to save the world. I think that connecting as blood relations will be important for becoming a team that can win the war. Whether one or two dies in the War is a completely separate issue and irrelevant to my point about needing to reveal Tyrion as son of Aerys for purposes of the three of them bonding as a team and finally finding their family. Now their family may then be taken away in War -- but at least they had it for a time.

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5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not inclined to believe Tywin is articulating actual affection (or even recognition) when he calls Tyrion his son in AGoT. If that had been the case one would have expected him to actually visit and reward him, not to mention to demonstrate both gratitude for his service as well as happiness that he would/had recover(ed). But Tywin did nothing of this sort.

He correctly guessed that Tyrion would be able to ensure that Joff and Cersei wouldn't do anymore follies but that doesn't mean he thought he was his son (or that he liked him). It just showed that he was willing to use him as a tool in the war.

And I really don't think Tywin considered KL the greatest responsibility during the war, either. If that had been the case he would have gone to KL himself or he would have sent Kevan. In fact, if he had actually cherished Tyrion he would have given him command of the Lannister in his stead - Jaime had been given command of his own army, after all. But that clearly would have been interpreted as a sign that Tyrion was Tywin's heir - whereas being Acting Hand with no power base in KL wasn't exactly a great position.

Well, timeline-wise I think we're basically in agreement, i.e. I would reach the same conclusion based on yours, so no point in splitting hairs.  Except for the bolded, that's a good point.  I don't think "you are my son" indicates any affection for Tyrion either, but I think it is a clear indication he was then treating Tyrion as his heir once he'd written Jaime off.  I think it's hard to interpret it any other way, and obviously it's how Tyrion takes it.

But, if that's the case, why didn't Tywin show the slightest of concern for Tyrion's well-being and validate his contributions?  That's a fair hole in my logic.  There are plausible responses - (1) Tywin is not the most emotional guy and simply preferred to be apprised of Tyrion's health from afar, (2) Tywin was particularly angered by Cersei's side of the story IRT Tommen and Tyrion's "threat."

Yes, Tywin correctly gauged Tyrion's proper use, but, again, I do not think he would grant Tyrion such a high profile position - with the ability (and even mandate) for Tyrion rule KL which enables Tyrion to develop powerful allies - if he did not view Tyrion as a viable alternative as heir with Jaime captured.  Surely, he could have relied on Kevan to mitigate Joff/Cersei, no?  I think you're far too dismissive of how being Acting Hand represents a symbol to everyone that Tywin trusts Tyrion, and your alternative of appointing him as the commander of the Lannister army in his stead is not plausible, c'mon.  Like I said, Tywin had just made a fool of Tyrion in front of his war council; turning around and expecting those Lords to follow Tyrion's orders is not an option.

I also strongly disagree that KL was not a great responsibility in Tywin's view.  He details all of Cersei's follies that were angering him (elevating Slynt, dismissing Selmy) and they had just finished discussing the fact beheading Ned prevented them from getting back Jaime ("You have the right of it about Stark.")  Not to mention he is in effect putting Tyrion in charge of the defense of his grandchildren, and thus legacy, as he's aware of Renly's crowning and thus anticipates one of the brothers will soon move on KL.

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1 hour ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

That is not what I meant. I think it very possible that one or two of the three main characters die -- although I am not as convinced as you that the survivor will be Tyrion.

I was talking about being family in the lead up to the War -- fighting as the Three Heads of the Dragon to save the world. I think that connecting as blood relations will be important for becoming a team that can win the war. Whether one or two dies in the War is a completely separate issue and irrelevant to my point about needing to reveal Tyrion as son of Aerys for purposes of the three of them bonding as a team and finally finding their family. Now their family may then be taken away in War -- but at least they had it for a time.

UL, I see your point, but again I think this would be too "classic" or too straightforward with regard to GRRM's style. Basically I think this is where (the blood bound) he wants to take us eventually but it will be left for us to conclude - on Tyrion I mean, not on Jon.  I can't really feed my intuition with textual evidence, but my GRRM's entire work reading experience (and the reason why I love reading his stories) points at truths remaining hidden but clues revealing themselves after the second, third and nth reading - when we know the final outcome  (think of Maynard Plumm / Bloodraven for instance). So my guess is that the "brotherhood" of the 3 heads will be omnipresent in their relationships ("brothers in arms" - again remember Jon and Tyrion's brief encounter and the "nephew" quiproquo with Benjen) and that the incredibly strong brotherhood bounding they will (may) develop will point at the blood sharing, not the other way round. And Tyrion is the sphinx, I am convinced of that, Tyrion is the riddle, not the riddler. His origin and nature will therefore remain "multiple". A chimera? Remember his dream with the 2 heads...

Edited by Jo Maltese

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4 minutes ago, Jo Maltese said:

UL, I see your point, but again I think this would be too "classic" or too straightforward with regard to GRRM's style. Basically I think this is where (the blood bound) he wants to take us eventually but it will be left for us to conclude - on Tyrion I mean, not on Jon.  I can't really feed my intuition with textual evidence, but my GRRM's entire work reading experience (and the reason why I love reading his stories) points at truths remaining hidden but clues revealing themselves after the second, third and nth reading - when we know the final outcome  (think of Maynard Plumm / Bloodraven for instance). So my guess is that the "brotherhood" of the 3 heads will be omnipresent in their relationships ("brothers in arms" - again remember Jon and Tyrion's brief encounter and the "nephew" quiproquo with Benjen) and that the incredibly strong brotherhood bounding they will (may) develop will point at the blood sharing, not the other way round. And Tyrion is the sphinx, I am convinced of that, Tyrion is the riddle, not the riddler. His origin and nature will therefore remain "multiple". A chimera? Remember his dream with the 2 heads...

I think there are two counter-points that get at your "impression" regarding truths remaining hidden.

First, these "truths" are like "easter eggs" in movies or video games. People who find the easter eggs love the hunt and enjoy finding them. But nothing that is central to the plot gets hidden in an easter egg. Bloodraven as Maynard Plumm is not so central to the plot that it needs to be spelled out. If most readers never catch on -- that is ok. But Tyrion as a Targ bastard is too central to the entire plot -- which I think is really about the resurgence of the Targ dynasty. But even if I am wrong about that, Tyrion as a Targ bastard is just too important a "fact" to leave to only a few readers to figure out.

Second, the books are not done yet. There are more D&E books and more main books. Bloodraven as Maynard could still be revealed in later D&E books, just as Sandor as the gravedigger could be revealed in later books. Just because clever readers have figured out these "hidden facts" already does not mean the GRRM will never reveal them more clearly in later books. By the end of all of the books (if GRRM ever really finished), there might be many fewer "hidden facts" than you would have expected.

But my first point is the more important point. If 99% of readers never figure out that BR is Maynard or SC is the gravedigger, they have not really missed anything central to the plot or the story. The "fact" that Tyrion is really the son of Aerys simply is not something that can be left for only a few to figure out.

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36 minutes ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

I think there are two counter-points that get at your "impression" regarding truths remaining hidden.

First, these "truths" are like "easter eggs" in movies or video games. People who find the easter eggs love the hunt and enjoy finding them. But nothing that is central to the plot gets hidden in an easter egg. Bloodraven as Maynard Plumm is not so central to the plot that it needs to be spelled out. If most readers never catch on -- that is ok. But Tyrion as a Targ bastard is too central to the entire plot -- which I think is really about the resurgence of the Targ dynasty. But even if I am wrong about that, Tyrion as a Targ bastard is just too important a "fact" to leave to only a few readers to figure out.

Second, the books are not done yet. There are more D&E books and more main books. Bloodraven as Maynard could still be revealed in later D&E books, just as Sandor as the gravedigger could be revealed in later books. Just because clever readers have figured out these "hidden facts" already does not mean the GRRM will never reveal them more clearly in later books. By the end of all of the books (if GRRM ever really finished), there might be many fewer "hidden facts" than you would have expected.

But my first point is the more important point. If 99% of readers never figure out that BR is Maynard or SC is the gravedigger, they have not really missed anything central to the plot or the story. The "fact" that Tyrion is really the son of Aerys simply is not something that can be left for only a few to figure out.

This is where we disagree : I do not see a resurgence of the Targ dynasty, on the contrary. Dany will "break the wheel", but in doing so will also end her dynasty IMHO. And no, for me, Tyrion as a tag bastard is not central to the plot. Jon's Targ identity is. And Tyrion's ability is. And I sense that in the end GRRM's message will be that ability is what matters, prevails and perdures. Not blood right. And I have always thought that GRRM's truthsayers were Varys and Davos: "Big picture aware", pragmatism, intelligence, ruthlessness for the former. "Big picture aware", common sense and compassion for the latter. Tyrion has got all those traits IMO, and not only because he is a Targ, but also because he is a Lannister. And a Webber. And many things that make him a unique individual, as we all are.

But never mind if we disagree. Keep on the good work UL. All I want now are these bloody WoW and aDoS to prove the two of us wrong but in doing so fill us with immense pleasure. And after we have read them for the third time we may be able to prove why we were sooooo wrong !;)

Edited by Jo Maltese

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@dmc515

I guess our difference lies in the interpretation of Tyrion's role in KL in Tywin's mind and Tywin's general view of Tyrion.

I think I've already written somewhere that Tywin utter and complete destruction of Tyrion the political entity in KL after his arrival in the city is hardly a coincidence - and neither is, of course, Tywin's decision to not reward or show public affection/gratitude to Tyrion.

I actually think Tywin was somewhat afraid of Tyrion's ability as a political player. I'd maintain that he considered him as a better errand boy whose purpose was to ensure that things didn't go to hell in the capital before Tywin could take care of things himself. Why the hell he didn't go to KL himself with his army I do not know - most likely because he feared that would be a bad position to defend if Stannis, Robb, and Renly all descended on the city.

But I guess his plan when he sent Tywin away was to deal with Robb as quickly as possible and then go to KL and save his grandson from Stannis. However, I think if KL had been Tywin's top priority he would have gone to KL himself and hadn't sent his son. The idea that Tyrion could be a general might look silly in light of the fact that Tywin usually treats him like shit but people in KL would also know that, so there is little difference.

As things turned out Tyrion was pretty successful and established a power base of his own in the city - a power base Tywin thoroughly and meticulously destroyed after he took over the city. That's not a coincidence. I think this can be seen as Tywin being afraid that Tyrion could not again be pushed into the shadows. But any man not being sure that Jaime would ever return to him wouldn't have taken such steps. And neither would a man who actually trusted his son enough to protect his grandson from his enemies treat him the way Tywin treated Tyrion in ASoS - not just in the beginning but also later on.

That only makes sense if he had some deep issues with him.

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11 hours ago, A spoon of knife and fork said:

I think Tywin was quite masterful at refusing to acknowledge inconvenient truths.  The incest of course is the prime example as LV points out.  But there's also the Jaime as heir thing.  Tywin adamantly refuses to make any specific plans for another heir (either marrying again, or taking one of his nephews as ward to groom for leadership) because he will not admit that Jaime is lost to him.  Jaime will leave the KG and that is all there is to it.

As for Tyrion, I suspect that Tywin would have guessed what happened to Johanna.  Yet even if he guessed, he can't be 100% sure if Johanna won't admit it.  And even if he's right or she admits it, that doesn't mean that Aerys is Tyrions father for certain.  There are no paternity tests in Westeros.  Tywin literally cannot prove that Tyrion is not his son.  The situation is ambiguous enough that Tywin can easily ignore the truth right in front of his face, just as he does with the incest and Jaime inheriting.  While Tyrion is of use, anyway.  When he's got a crossbow pointed at him, Tywin finally admits what he believes to be true, but refused ever to admit.

Only the dragons and the direwolves.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, hell, if we stick to my 'Promise me, Tywin' scenario on Joanna's deathbed - Joanna asking Tywin not to blame the child for her death and raise it as his own while also admitting that she had slept with Aerys back in KL (or had been raped by him) - in combination with the assumption that Tywin and Joanna had sex on the very same day or the day before Joanna-Aerys. Then it would be indeed literally impossible for Tywin to know for sure who the father was - although if some/many of the children of Aerys and Rhaella who were stillborn or died in the cradle had deformities similar to those of Tyrion (or if some other Targaryen monstrosities throughout the ages had such deformities and nothing of this sort was ever reported for a scion of House Lannister) Tywin would have had at least a very good reason that Tyrion was his son.

In fact, one could argue that this is the same kind of 'proof' Stannis, Jon Arryn, and Ned had about the parentage of Cersei's children before Cersei actually literally confessed the truth.

The problem I have with 'the popular Tywin image' is that many people actually think Tywin would have murdered or sent away Joanna's child if he had known or believed it wasn't his seed. We actually do not know the heart of that man well enough to say that. Especially not in combination with the devotion he had for his wife - if Joanna had begged Tywin with her last breath 'to not blame the child' (either for her infidelity or for the cruelty of his biological father who had raped Joanna) then I find it actually pretty convincing that Tywin would have tried to love the child and raise it as his son as he had promised his wife. He failed at the loving part but would have tried his best to fulfill his promise anyway. I really think those attempts are reflected in Tywin's references to the fact that he allowed Tyrion to bear the Lannister colors and all that. That must have been nearly unbearable for him but if he tried to stick to a promise he made it makes sense.

The heir question is actually very interesting: Tywin might actually have been smart rather than stupid there. By not acknowledging the fact that Jaime was no longer his heir he made things easier for Jaime's eventual return as heir to Casterly Rock because he did not groom another heir who would then have to be pushed aside again.

I was thinking about this scenario, and although it is in so many ways super similar to Lyanna and Rhaegar.....ya know GRRM is not afraid of doing the same thing more than once.  I mean there were 5 Blackfyre rebellions, there will be a DwD 2.0.  He brought multiple characters back to life in at least 4 different ways.  I am of the mind set that this is what happened, Joanna made him promise, and he tried, with white knuckles and gritted teeth, but he still kept Tyrion alive if nothing else.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Unless we get a good explanation as to how Tyrion could become a dragonrider without Targaryen blood or an explanation how he could have Targaryen blood without being Aerys' son I think it is quite obvious that those revelations will go along hand in hand.

Keen in mind that Daenerys most likely won't be there to witness Tyrion becoming a dragonrider or embrace him as her long-lost brother. And Tyrion will not necessarily deduce that he is, might be, or must be the son of Aerys II. Not unless he receives additional information on Aerys' reign and the relationship between Aerys, Joanna, and Tywin.

Even then things might not yet be actually confirmed - that could come later in the story when Tyrion meets Varys again in Westeros (who might have special knowledge from Aerys (and Tywin) themselves.

But then, Selmy could actually know something similar. He might not only have witnessed Aerys and Joanna having sex in 272 AC, he might also have been privy to conversations between Aerys and Tywin, Tywin and Joanna, Joanna and Aerys, or Aerys and Varys about the topic at hand.

I'm still not sure about this, it seems to me like due to WOIAF and the way Oberyn spoke of the situation that a lot of people knew about Joanna/Aerys.  How could Tyrion possibly never have heard of this?  I think A+J is what he is referring to in GOT when he says "Tell my father that, he's never been sure."  I mean he is a vastly knowledgeable guy, and this would have been a huge court scandal that would have gotten around.  I honestly think it is GRRM intentionally leaving out hardly any mention of it, just like he does with Jon's mother.  A few people speculate but they are all wrong, and not one person in-universe ever suspects that Ned Stark is not his father.

7 hours ago, Jo Maltese said:

I think we have to disagree here LV. My counter is that the bolded above is exactly why we (or Westeros) do not need a good explanation or irrefutable revelation on Tyrion's paternity. I think that, just like Tywin did, many people suspect Tyrion is Aerys' son but nobody can definitely prove it (No witness! And even Joanna was not sure who the father was IMO). So the dragon riding is all that we will get - and this will be enough for all to link it with the other dot (Joanna the former paramour of Aerys etc) and acknowledge it because it will serve their purpose (Dany, Varys, Jon... Tyrion himself?). As for Dany not witnessing Tyrion becoming a dragonrider, well witnessing the end result (Tyrion rescuing her with Viserion? Or just Tyrion flying.) will be more than enough to convince her IMO.

I disagree because Tyrion himself is in fact the first one to set up any rules about who the dragons like with his convo with BBP.  No one else has really set up any guidelines for who could possibly hang out with the dragons besides Dany, and we saw what happened to Quentyn and co.  So we know that they like BBP cuz of his dragon blood, and we also know that they will lite a bitch up if they are in a bad mood.  So it has become vital to get someone near them who they like, and Tyrion has established which people are gonna be able to do this. People with Dragon Blood.  So if Tyrion is able to walk right up to them (Viserion) and help them out......well the writing already made it clear who can do that.  And I think Tyrion would be quite curious about something like that.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not saying that's not going to work but I think there is too little foreshadowing for such an idea to work. Tyrion himself seems to have no idea who his father could be if it isn't Tywin, and neither does any other (Lannister) POV we have met so far. The idea that 'everybody' (or just a majority of people) is going to declare or believe that Tyrion is a Aerys' son is a pretty big stretch - especially because he is at Slaver's Bay right now and completely cut off from Westerosi knowledge if we exclude Barristan (who could offer more than mere rumors). Victarion most likely is no good source for court gossip.

Dany has no reason to even believe her father had sex with Joanna at the right time - not unless she receives additional information. Ulf, Hugh, and Nettles also weren't proclaimed Targaryen bastards fathered by this or that prince or king simply because they became dragonriders - and the same could easily be Tyrion's fate.

I think I've already said that once somewhere - Tyrion or other dragonlore specialists might simply try to speculate or look for a Targaryen ancestor of the Lannister line in the more distant past rather than thinking about Joanna/Aerys.

It's just never really come up though. We've never seen Tyrion have inner monologue where he openly wonders if Tywin is his father. And you're right Cersei/Jaime never think it either.  But I think that is due to the way Tyrion clearly makes jokes about it.  And his father has brought it up a few times as well, in a it's-hard-to-tell-if-I-am-being-serious kind of way.  So Jaime and Cersei probably just think it's another mean joke directed at Tyrion.

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12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, hell, if we stick to my 'Promise me, Tywin' scenario on Joanna's deathbed - Joanna asking Tywin not to blame the child for her death and raise it as his own while also admitting that she had slept with Aerys back in KL (or had been raped by him) - in combination with the assumption that Tywin and Joanna had sex on the very same day or the day before Joanna-Aerys. Then it would be indeed literally impossible for Tywin to know for sure who the father was - although if some/many of the children of Aerys and Rhaella who were stillborn or died in the cradle had deformities similar to those of Tyrion (or if some other Targaryen monstrosities throughout the ages had such deformities and nothing of this sort was ever reported for a scion of House Lannister) Tywin would have had at least a very good reason that Tyrion was his son.

In fact, one could argue that this is the same kind of 'proof' Stannis, Jon Arryn, and Ned had about the parentage of Cersei's children before Cersei actually literally confessed the truth.

The problem I have with 'the popular Tywin image' is that many people actually think Tywin would have murdered or sent away Joanna's child if he had known or believed it wasn't his seed. We actually do not know the heart of that man well enough to say that. Especially not in combination with the devotion he had for his wife - if Joanna had begged Tywin with her last breath 'to not blame the child' (either for her infidelity or for the cruelty of his biological father who had raped Joanna) then I find it actually pretty convincing that Tywin would have tried to love the child and raise it as his son as he had promised his wife. He failed at the loving part but would have tried his best to fulfill his promise anyway. I really think those attempts are reflected in Tywin's references to the fact that he allowed Tyrion to bear the Lannister colors and all that. That must have been nearly unbearable for him but if he tried to stick to a promise he made it makes sense.

The heir question is actually very interesting: Tywin might actually have been smart rather than stupid there. By not acknowledging the fact that Jaime was no longer his heir he made things easier for Jaime's eventual return as heir to Casterly Rock because he did not groom another heir who would then have to be pushed aside again.

LV, there are at least weeks of ambiguity here - doesn't have to be the same day at all.  There's about five-seven days where sperm can hang around and fertilize the egg when it comes, and even beyond that, if Tyrion was really Tywins, it could have been weeks before or after the trip to KL that they conceived since pregnancies range dramatically in length (I'm assuming here that Tywin is not keeping close track of when Johannas period is, which would be normal in their culture I think).  

And as I think has already been covered in these threads there is no good evidence that dwarfism (or other aberrations that look like dwarfism) and targ blood are linked.  

I never said anything about whether Tywin would murder Tyrion if somehow he was absolutely 100% sure, consciously, that he wasn't his so I'm not sure why you bring that up. 

Tywin was clearly being prideful about Jaime, not rational.  If he was being rational there might have been some explanation about the situation.  Instead we got you're going to rule CR and that's final, basically.  

otoh I will say that Tywin refusing to name another heir may have had a lot more to do with Tyrion.  By all the laws of Gods and Men, Tywin ought to name Tyrion heir.  The fact he didn't is another clue that Tywin thinks deep down that Tyrion is Aerys' spawn, and not fit to rule CR.  

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@A spoon of knife and fork

Oh, I know how human procreation works ;-). I did not mean to say that Tywin had to have had sex directly before or after Aerys and Joanna had sex. I just wanted to indicate that Tywin and Joanna would have had to have sex while she was in KL because we have no reason to believe that Tywin spent any time at Casterly Rock with her prior or after the anniversary tourney.

This in itself is enough evidence for me to assume that Tyrion was most likely conceived during the tourney - regardless who he his father was.

I wasn't specifically talking about dwarfism. Tyrion might have had other deformities similar to those of (historical) Targaryen monstrosities. For instance, the tales Oberyn heard suggested Tyrion was born with a tail. The fact that there was no tail when Oberyn and Elia saw Tyrion doesn't prove anything because the maester of Casterly Rock could have removed it. And we know that there is a precedent for heterochromia in Targaryen bastards.

@Suzanna Stormborn

I'd not say that dragons or direwolves are good paternity tests. A boy skinchanger with a direwolf doesn't have to be Rickon Stark, after all. It could be a different boy skinchanger. But it would be pretty convincing, that's clear.

Vice versa, bonding with a dragon should only prove you have some Targaryen (or dragonlord) ancestor, not that you are the descendant of a specific Targaryen prince, king, queen, or princess. In fact, Addam of Hull claimed Laenor Velaryon's dragon Seasmoke but does this prove he was the son of Laenor Velaryon? I don't think so. Another example would be Prince Aenys bonding with Quicksilver - people saw this as 'proof' that the prince was the seed of the Conqueror but all it really did was proving that the child had Targaryen blood (which was never in question considering that Queen Rhaenys was his mother).

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31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

(...)

I'd not say that dragons or direwolves are good paternity tests. A boy skinchanger with a direwolf doesn't have to be Rickon Stark, after all. It could be a different boy skinchanger. But it would be pretty convincing, that's clear.

Vice versa, bonding with a dragon should only prove you have some Targaryen (or dragonlord) ancestor, not that you are the descendant of a specific Targaryen prince, king, queen, or princess. In fact, Addam of Hull claimed Laenor Velaryon's dragon Seasmoke but does this prove he was the son of Laenor Velaryon? I don't think so. Another example would be Prince Aenys bonding with Quicksilver - people saw this as 'proof' that the prince was the seed of the Conqueror but all it really did was proving that the child had Targaryen blood (which was never in question considering that Queen Rhaenys was his mother).

^^ This.

And my point is that Tyrion riding a dragon is proof to most that he has a dragon lord / Targaryen ancestor (not sure it is conclusive proof for someone as rational as Tyrion though). And the rumours about Joanna and Aerys + a father origin (as opposed to a great great grandfather) make Aerys the most likely candidate by far (2nd most likely being Rhaegar...). Do we (the Westerosii) need more? I don't think so.

Edited by Jo Maltese

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1 hour ago, Jo Maltese said:

^^ This.

And my point is that Tyrion riding a dragon is proof to most that he has a dragon lord / Targaryen ancestor (not sure it is conclusive proof for someone as rational as Tyrion though). And the rumours about Joanna and Aerys + a father origin (as opposed to a great great grandfather) make Aerys the most likely candidate by far (2nd most likely being Rhaegar...). Do we (the Westerosii) need more? I don't think so.

Well, we'll have to wait and see whether Tyrion ever makes the Aerys connection. I mean, this also will greatly depend on how and when he becomes a dragonrider. If Tyrion for some reason becomes a dragonrider effectively by accident - say, he comes a across Viserion in the middle of the battle and has to choose between letting Penny die/certain death and an attempt to jump on the dragon's back - then he might be willing to consider he has a dragonlord ancestor. But even that doesn't mean he'll jump to Aerys II and Joanna.

He could also, for instance, assume that Lady Rohanne Webber wasn't all that faithful to Gerold Lannister. She may yet have an affair with Dunk and there is the story about her sudden disappearance. Tyrion might assume that instead of having an affair with Dunk she may have an affair with Prince Aerion or the later Aegon V.

if he becomes a dragonrider with the help of Dragonbinder a Targaryen ancestry might not come up at all.

And if Barristan Selmy ends up forcing Tyrion to try to claim a dragonrider with the rationale that he is Aerys' bastard 'because he knows Joanna and Aerys had sex in 272 AC' then Tyrion might not be willing to believe that at all and fail to become a dragonrider because he won't be able to overcome his fear in the face of the dragon he is supposed to mount (not to mention that this revelation will cause a lot of confusion and uncertainty in his mind - he may not want it to be try and thus, at heart, not want to become a dragonrider).

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@dmc515

I guess our difference lies in the interpretation of Tyrion's role in KL in Tywin's mind and Tywin's general view of Tyrion.

I think you're right, if I understand you correctly.  So you're saying Tywin underestimated Tyrion's potential to forge his own power base in KL, and upon arriving in KL realized he had ceded too much authority to him so completely destroyed everything Tyrion had built?  The last part is undeniable, but if that's an accurate summary of your thoughts, yeah, we have different interpretations.

And we do seem to have different interpretations on Tywin's view of Tyrion.  Yours seems to be almost wholly negative, while I think Tywin actually recognized the abilities of Tyrion (and thus had somewhat mixed fellings), yet these were almost always superseded by the aspects that made him hate Tyrion.  Specifically, his whoring, need for recognition (to be liked/loved), and tendency to be laughed at reminded Tywin of what he hated in himself and his own father.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, we'll have to wait and see whether Tyrion ever makes the Aerys connection. I mean, this also will greatly depend on how and when he becomes a dragonrider. If Tyrion for some reason becomes a dragonrider effectively by accident - say, he comes a across Viserion in the middle of the battle and has to choose between letting Penny die/certain death and an attempt to jump on the dragon's back - then he might be willing to consider he has a dragonlord ancestor. But even that doesn't mean he'll jump to Aerys II and Joanna.

He could also, for instance, assume that Lady Rohanne Webber wasn't all that faithful to Gerold Lannister. She may yet have an affair with Dunk and there is the story about her sudden disappearance. Tyrion might assume that instead of having an affair with Dunk she may have an affair with Prince Aerion or the later Aegon V.

if he becomes a dragonrider with the help of Dragonbinder a Targaryen ancestry might not come up at all.

And if Barristan Selmy ends up forcing Tyrion to try to claim a dragonrider with the rationale that he is Aerys' bastard 'because he knows Joanna and Aerys had sex in 272 AC' then Tyrion might not be willing to believe that at all and fail to become a dragonrider because he won't be able to overcome his fear in the face of the dragon he is supposed to mount (not to mention that this revelation will cause a lot of confusion and uncertainty in his mind - he may not want it to be try and thus, at heart, not want to become a dragonrider).

Well yeah, but in the reality of the 5 main novels there are no other direwolves or many Targaryens. I seriously doubt GRRM is going to randomly pull another direwolf out of his ass to hang  around with a non-Stark.  SO while agree with what your saying I am still making my theories based on what is practical for the main asoiaf story. And especially in Tyrions case I firmly believe that if he can ride a dragon its cause Aerys is his father.  In Dany's last chapter in DwD, Vision Viserys says to her 'you were supposed to be mine to keep the blood of the dragon pure'.  So Dany, even though she hasn't talked about it, I think must understand the importance of Valyrian blood in order to ride a dragon.  TYrion knows it too.

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On 3. toukokuuta 2016 at 0:33 AM, Lord Varys said:

 

I actually think Tywin was somewhat afraid of Tyrion's ability as a political player. I'd maintain that he considered him as a better errand boy whose purpose was to ensure that things didn't go to hell in the capital before Tywin could take care of things himself. Why the hell he didn't go to KL himself with his army I do not know - most likely because he feared that would be a bad position to defend if Stannis, Robb, and Renly all descended on the city.

 

The City was nearly starving so an army inside the walls would have been impossible to feed. And Tywin would have been unable to leave to defend the West from Robb.

But what I wanted to ask is that do you not really think that Cersei's report of how Tyrion made threats against Tommen were not vital in how he treated Tyrion later? I believe Tywin takes very protecting family very seriously and was genuinely outraged by this news. Tyrion comments how he seems to be usually angry. And Cersei told other unfavorable things about Tyrion as well and he did not defend himself. So I do not believe Tywin initially was planning on treating Tyrion the way he did or was worried about his success. 

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On 4.5.2016 at 6:20 PM, dmc515 said:

I think you're right, if I understand you correctly.  So you're saying Tywin underestimated Tyrion's potential to forge his own power base in KL, and upon arriving in KL realized he had ceded too much authority to him so completely destroyed everything Tyrion had built?  The last part is undeniable, but if that's an accurate summary of your thoughts, yeah, we have different interpretations.

And we do seem to have different interpretations on Tywin's view of Tyrion.  Yours seems to be almost wholly negative, while I think Tywin actually recognized the abilities of Tyrion (and thus had somewhat mixed fellings), yet these were almost always superseded by the aspects that made him hate Tyrion.  Specifically, his whoring, need for recognition (to be liked/loved), and tendency to be laughed at reminded Tywin of what he hated in himself and his own father.

I'm not exactly sure how Tywin saw Tyrion because, you know, we cannot be sure about that. But if we assume Tywin believed or suspected that Tyrion was Aerys' son then he would see everything Tyrion did with that in mind. Tyrion's promiscuity would remember him of Aerys' in his youth (indeed, they seem to have about the same libido and at least after the Tysha episode Tyrion was treating his women effectively the same as Aerys treated his mistresses). His want of recognition would remember him of Aerys' own narcissistic personality.

Not to mention that any time Tyrion excelled at anything it would have been - in Tywin's mind - not a triumph for House Lannister but for Aerys' shade. That must have been a huge problem for him. I mean, just look how he reacted when Genna told him that she thought Tyrion was his true son. If he believed the boy was his seed then he certainly wouldn't have not spoken to her for an entire year after that. That's just insane.

In addition, Tywin most likely constantly looked for any sign of Aerys' madness in Tyrion, fearing that once this came forth both his shame - that he had raised Aerys' bastard as his own son - would be apparent to anyone and House Lannister would be in danger.

In that context I don't think it makes much sense to believe Tywin could ever be happy seeing Tyrion perching on the Iron Throne or wielding any sort of power in KL. That would be just wrong.

@Suzanna Stormborn

Well, as I've laid out above somewhere we'll have to wait and see how the dragonriding thing and the Targaryen ancestry thing fit together in the narrative. If Tyrion becomes a dragonrider 'by accident' (without consciously trying to mount a dragon) during the coming battle, then I think he might inclined to believe he has Targaryen blood. And I think the Joanna-Aerys story will then be brought up or confirmed by Barristan Selmy.

However, if Tyrion becomes a dragonrider with the help of Dragonbinder or if he is told he is Aerys' bastard in attempt to convince/force him to try to mount a dragon then I'm not sure he'll buy that story (or, in the latter scenario, even succeed in the attempt). If you want to mount a dragon you cannot show the beast that you are afraid (in fact, you shouldn't be afraid). But Tyrion most likely will be very afraid in any possible scenario in which he (tries to) mount(s) a dragon because he is a crippled dwarf with bad legs who is very aware that he has no chance to evade the dragon's fire, teeth, or claws should anything go wrong.

@UnmaskedLurker

George usually reveals all the mysteries he has set up quite explicitly. His editor has characterized three levels to all this. Very subtle clues - like a lot of the early hints towards Jon's true heritage or the true murderer of Jon Arryn you can find in AGoT -, less subtle clues - like the actual revelation of the murderer of Jon Arryn in ASoS (which was not spilled out as such - the reader had to connect the 'tears but in Jon Arryn's wine' to the poison called the Tears of Lys). [In fact, come to think of it the very names Lys and Lysa might actually also qualify as a hint towards the real murderer back in AGoT.] And then there is the third level in which a conspiracy is actually addressed about and revealed either in a conversation between POVs or a conversation a POV overhears, or a realization/revelation a POV has in his mind.

You can also take the Red Wedding as an example for this. There are many hints that it will happen, the first being, I think, the vision in the House of the Undying and other hints are dropped by the Jaime-Roose conversation, Tywin's ominous happiness and letter-writing, etc.

AFfC/ADwD contains a lot of hinted-at mysteries of the first or second category, but all of them should eventually be spilled out. Alleras true identity is going to be revealed, we'll learn that Sandor Clegane is still alive and hid on the Quiet Isle in the guise of the grave-digging brother. Aegon is also another good example. We'll eventually learn whom those clothes Tyrion wore belonged to, why Illyrio seems to like the boy so much, whether the boy is already eighteen (as the appendix suggests) or 15-16.

Even the three-eyed crow's true identity should eventually be spilled out. Right now only the readers of the Dunk & Egg story should be able to identity him as Lord Bloodraven, but one should expect that this is relevant enough to be actually brought up in future Bran chapters.

Whether a future Dunk & Egg story ever addresses the Maynard Plumm mystery remains to be seen, but I'm pretty sure we'll see Bloodraven use glamors in later stories, and Dunk & Egg might at one point either figure out who they companion Ser Maynard was, or meet him again and see through the glamor.

In that sense I'm completely with you that Tyrion's true heritage - if it is ever called into question explicitly in the books - will be revealed, at least to the reader. The same most likely will be the case for Jon's true heritage, although this does not mean that a majority of the people in Westeros will draw the same conclusion as the readers.

@Chinoiserie

Oh, I'm sure this whole thing contributed to Tywin's coldness towards Tyrion to a certain extent. But any good father would have asked Tyrion's side of the story first, especially anyone who knew how Cersei worked and operated, and how bad her relationship to Tyrion was (which Tywin all did).

I expect that Tyrion - (possibly) Aerys' son - threatening Tywin Lannister's grandson was greatly troubling him because he did not see it as a means to intimidate Cersei but as Aerys' spawn threatening Cersei and her children.

I can't see how the manner in which Tywin treated Tyrion - not giving him a single word of gratitude or honoring him for his deeds and leadership at court - is completely explainable by Cersei's intervention there. Surely Cersei only later told Tywin about all that - perhaps only shortly before Tyrion could visit his father - and not immediately after the man had arrived in KL (and it still looked as if Tyrion might die).

It is actually only the fact that Tyrion is out of the picture/nearly dying that allows Tywin to take control of the city the way he does, not to mention to take all the glory and recognition for saving the capital. Had Tyrion being unwounded and still in charge of the defense of KL Tywin and Mace had been forced to share the glory with him, and everybody would have been forced to thank him first and foremost because it was his plan who had bought Tywin and Mace enough time to save the city.

He would not have been pushed aside so easily.

Edited by Lord Varys

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