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What will happend in the minutes after „For the Watch?“


SkylerWhite

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The allusions to Shakespear's Julius Caesar are too strong to ignore...

Just as Wick Whittlestick barely grazed Jon's neck with the first dagger, Casca was the first to cut Ceaser with a glancing cut to the neck. Just as Caesar caught Casca by the arm, Jon caught Wick's wrist. Just as Wick retreated and put his arms up, Casca was frighted and shouted for help. (That Jon understood this to mean that Wick was denying involvement was very curious. I'm not sure what to make of that other than he might have been mistaken.) That Bowen Marsh wept and claimed to be doing it for the Watch clearly alluded to Brutus...

"Let's kill him boldly, but not wrathfully; Let's carve him as a dish fit for the gods, Not hew him as a carcass fit for hounds:"

And Brutus expected his fellow Romans to be glad, going so far as to persuade his fellow conspirators to ignore Marcus Antonius. Given the strong allusion to the assassination of Julius Caesar I'm assuming that Bowen will expect his brothers to be glad. I don't think he has a plan. And much like Brutus was forced to flee Rome in short order I think Bowen is in a very, very tight spot, because Tormund is set to play the role of Marcus Antonius. I would expect him to whip the wildings into a frenzy against Marsh and the other conspirators. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

So, coming back to this now because of a(n excellent) post by @The Fattest Leech about dear ol' Tormund... 

A while back someone (I think it might have been @Lord Varys) was arguing against Tormund and the wildlings taking over CB. One of the arguments was the distance between HT and the Shieldhall, the time it would take the wildlings to get to HT, etc. Even though we we have Jon telling us:

Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen’s men … “Form a line,” Jon Snow commanded them. “Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen’s men.” The dead man was Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen’s other knights trying to avenge him.”

But Leech's post (what? You haven't read it yet? go!) convinced me even more that Tormund will lead the wildlings and take over CB. It also made me want to reread the passage, and I found something else...

 

“Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them. No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking, the crime is mine and mine alone. Then Tormund was pounding him on the back, all gap-toothed grin from ear to ear. “Well spoken, crow. Now bring out the mead! Make them yours and get them drunk, that’s how it’s done. We’ll make a wildling o’ you yet, boy. Har!”
“I will send for ale,” Jon said, distracted. Melisandre was gone, he realized, and so were the queen’s knights. I should have gone to Selyse first. She has the right to know her lord is dead. “You must excuse me. I’ll leave you to get them drunk.”
“Har! A task I’m well suited for, crow. On your way!”
Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me. Then he heard the shouting … and a roar so loud it seemed to shake the Wall. “That come from Hardin’s Tower, m’lord,” Horse reported. He might have said more, but the scream cut him off.
Val, was Jon’s first thought. But that was no woman’s scream. That is a man in mortal agony. He broke into a run. Horse and Rory raced after him. “Is it wights?” asked Rory. Jon wondered. Could his corpses have escaped their chains?
The screaming had stopped by the time they came to Hardin’s Tower, but Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun was still roaring. The giant was dangling a bloody corpse by one leg, the same way Arya used to dangle her doll when she was small, swinging it like a morningstar when menaced by vegetables. Arya never tore her dolls to pieces, though. The dead man’s sword arm was yards away, the snow beneath it turning red.”

 

To me this reinforces the idea that the .Shieldhall is near-ish HT. 

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@kissdbyfire:

Oh, I actually don't know what's going to happen at the Wall just as I don't know what's going to happen in KL. Usually I only point out a lot of scenarios attempting to prevent people from investing too much in one particular theory/outcome.

My take was, I think, about Tormund not intervening in the assassination and its immediate aftermath because he is at the Shieldhall celebrating, and people in some sort of hall/tent roaring and shouting at each other while getting drunk usually don't hear what's going on outside. Compare it to nobody catching up what was going on at Whitewalls despite this being just a castle. The plan was going awry, Lord Frey was leaving, the dragon egg was stolen, etc. but people didn't learn all that because people actually can obscure and hide a lot of things.

The free folk coming out shortly before the assassination are not necessarily Tormund's men (could be buddies of Gerrick Kingsblood for all we know), and even if they are we don't know who exactly witnessed Jon's assassination - and what the people who actually saw something going on did see in detail. We don't know what transpires at the same time. What if the Wun Wun situation got completely out of control? What if Jon was surrounded by a dozen or more men who killed him without anybody farther away seeing what's going on? What if Marsh actually has a plan that extends beyond the assassination of Jon Snow?

I'm with you that Tormund most likely is going to want to avenge Jon as soon as he learns what happened but whether he will be able to do so depends on the situation at the time he learns about what has happened - and what happened exactly. It won't do just to know Jon has been killed, he should also know who did it.

Now, a way to dissuade Tormund and the other wildlings from attacking and killing the assassins would be to secure the hostages the wildlings had given up before Jon allowed them through the Wall. One assumes that Marsh has taken steps to do that.

Another point to consider is that while the wildlings might still outnumber the watchmen at Castle Black despite the fact that pretty big number was already sent to other castles in-between the last two Jon chapters the black brothers (and especially Marsh's stewards) control the access to all the weapons and armors stored at Castle Black. The majority of the wildlings would be women and children while the Night's Watch consists only of men who were trained and expected to fight. A lot of them might be old and not very good fighters but they are still trained to fight. Since the rangers are pretty much all dead the overwhelming majority of the black brothers at the Wall should be builders and stewards most of which should stood with Marsh against the wildlings if it comes to a fight (regardless whether it is publicly revealed that Marsh killed Jon Snow or not - the deed is done, and they are not suddenly going to love the wildlings). They might not have been all involved in the assassination but a lot of them would approve it after the fact. Jon did break his vows when he decided to abandon the Wall and march alone against the Boltons. You can even interpret this as him resigning from his position as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

Would Tormund want to begin a war with the NW that is likely going to kill a lot of people even if he could win it in the end? I don't know.

The other thing is the 'divide and slaughter' problem. Castle Black is not the Wall. There are Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower and the other castles to consider. If Marsh has a plan and enough support he could have already dispatched men to arrest/kill the wildlings at the other castles. They wouldn't see this coming.

Even if Tormund were able to take control of Castle Black could he really hope to win a battle against the other castles or even against the Northern lords Marsh and his allies might call in for help. If they spread the tale that Lord Snow was murdered in cold blood by the wildlings he let into the Realm the willdlings won't exactly be welcome in the North.

The other problem is the question whether a majority of the wildlings is going to feel bound to the promise they made to Jon Snow. With him murdered by his own people the best way to capitalize on this situation is to press on further down south and let the Wall defend itself. Mance did not want to replace or assist the NW. He wanted to lead his people to the safety south of the Wall. Now they are there. Why should they stay up there when seven kingdoms await them?

Even if Tormund should find enough people to avenge Jon Snow this certainly would become a problem to come. Even if they control Castle Black - why the hell should they remain there? Even if Jon came back from the dead as quickly as Jesus allegedly did (and I don't think he will) there is no guarantee that the people all want to follow some undead guy. They might be terrified and afraid of him, especially if there is some price shield attached to whatever spell brings him back. Not to mention that we don't even know whether Jon Snow is going to continue his mission/duty at the Wall after he resurrection. He might not.

And if we go with a Caesar-like setting as @Lost Melnibonean suggests then we should actually expect some sort of peace between Caesar's men and Caesar's murderers, at least for the time being. Brutus and Antonius reached some sort of agreement, and Antonius could not move immediately against them.

And Marsh of all people has no reason to actually provoke a war between the wildlings and the Watch. He would most likely allow them to do what they want if they only leave the Wall. Or he might even ask them to continue their joint mission to defend the Wall minus that suicidal Hardhome mission and that ridiculous Winterfell campaign.

In such a scenario I'd expect that it will be the news of Stannis' victory at Winterfell that is going to mark the end of the cause of the assassins.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@kissdbyfire:

Oh, I actually don't know what's going to happen at the Wall just as I don't know what's going to happen in KL. Usually I only point out a lot of scenarios attempting to prevent people from investing too much in one particular theory/outcome.

My take was, I think, about Tormund not intervening in the assassination and its immediate aftermath because he is at the Shieldhall celebrating, and people in some sort of hall/tent roaring and shouting at each other while getting drunk usually don't hear what's going on outside. Compare it to nobody catching up what was going on at Whitewalls despite this being just a castle. The plan was going awry, Lord Frey was leaving, the dragon egg was stolen, etc. but people didn't learn all that because people actually can obscure and hide a lot of things.

The free folk coming out shortly before the assassination are not necessarily Tormund's men (could be buddies of Gerrick Kingsblood for all we know), and even if they are we don't know who exactly witnessed Jon's assassination - and what the people who actually saw something going on did see in detail. We don't know what transpires at the same time. What if the Wun Wun situation got completely out of control? What if Jon was surrounded by a dozen or more men who killed him without anybody farther away seeing what's going on? What if Marsh actually has a plan that extends beyond the assassination of Jon Snow?

I'm with you that Tormund most likely is going to want to avenge Jon as soon as he learns what happened but whether he will be able to do so depends on the situation at the time he learns about what has happened - and what happened exactly. It won't do just to know Jon has been killed, he should also know who did it.

Now, a way to dissuade Tormund and the other wildlings from attacking and killing the assassins would be to secure the hostages the wildlings had given up before Jon allowed them through the Wall. One assumes that Marsh has taken steps to do that.

Another point to consider is that while the wildlings might still outnumber the watchmen at Castle Black despite the fact that pretty big number was already sent to other castles in-between the last two Jon chapters the black brothers (and especially Marsh's stewards) control the access to all the weapons and armors stored at Castle Black. The majority of the wildlings would be women and children while the Night's Watch consists only of men who were trained and expected to fight. A lot of them might be old and not very good fighters but they are still trained to fight. Since the rangers are pretty much all dead the overwhelming majority of the black brothers at the Wall should be builders and stewards most of which should stood with Marsh against the wildlings if it comes to a fight (regardless whether it is publicly revealed that Marsh killed Jon Snow or not - the deed is done, and they are not suddenly going to love the wildlings). They might not have been all involved in the assassination but a lot of them would approve it after the fact. Jon did break his vows when he decided to abandon the Wall and march alone against the Boltons. You can even interpret this as him resigning from his position as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

Would Tormund want to begin a war with the NW that is likely going to kill a lot of people even if he could win it in the end? I don't know.

The other thing is the 'divide and slaughter' problem. Castle Black is not the Wall. There are Eastwatch and the Shadow Tower and the other castles to consider. If Marsh has a plan and enough support he could have already dispatched men to arrest/kill the wildlings at the other castles. They wouldn't see this coming.

Even if Tormund were able to take control of Castle Black could he really hope to win a battle against the other castles or even against the Northern lords Marsh and his allies might call in for help. If they spread the tale that Lord Snow was murdered in cold blood by the wildlings he let into the Realm the willdlings won't exactly be welcome in the North.

The other problem is the question whether a majority of the wildlings is going to feel bound to the promise they made to Jon Snow. With him murdered by his own people the best way to capitalize on this situation is to press on further down south and let the Wall defend itself. Mance did not want to replace or assist the NW. He wanted to lead his people to the safety south of the Wall. Now they are there. Why should they stay up there when seven kingdoms await them?

Even if Tormund should find enough people to avenge Jon Snow this certainly would become a problem to come. Even if they control Castle Black - why the hell should they remain there? Even if Jon came back from the dead as quickly as Jesus allegedly did (and I don't think he will) there is no guarantee that the people all want to follow some undead guy. They might be terrified and afraid of him, especially if there is some price shield attached to whatever spell brings him back. Not to mention that we don't even know whether Jon Snow is going to continue his mission/duty at the Wall after he resurrection. He might not.

And if we go with a Caesar-like setting as @Lost Melnibonean suggests then we should actually expect some sort of peace between Caesar's men and Caesar's murderers, at least for the time being. Brutus and Antonius reached some sort of agreement, and Antonius could not move immediately against them.

And Marsh of all people has no reason to actually provoke a war between the wildlings and the Watch. He would most likely allow them to do what they want if they only leave the Wall. Or he might even ask them to continue their joint mission to defend the Wall minus that suicidal Hardhome mission and that ridiculous Winterfell campaign.

In such a scenario I'd expect that it will be the news of Stannis' victory at Winterfell that is going to mark the end of the cause of the assassins.

Suddenly it occurs to me that Marsh et al. could bar the doors to the Shield Hall and roast Tormund and a whole lot of wildings. 

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Hard to say. Either GRRM will rip off Robin Hobb, Jon just won't be dead (possible no vitsls were hit), or he comes up with some other way to resurrect Jon. I'm assuming the willing will take control of castle black immediately after the stabbing though.

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