What will happend in the minutes after „For the Watch?“

[bemused]

I always think it's a bad idea to try to project what will happen in the books by the show. It may or may not be true to the books at any given moment (We already know it has deviated from the books in the attempt on Jon's life).. And of course GRRM wouldn't give away , one way or the other, whether Jon was alive or dead. In fact that "Oh, so you think he's dead, do you?" was in reply to someone taking it for a fact that Jon was dead, and cast a bit of doubt on their assumption. He's not to blame for all HBO's "Dead is dead" declarations... those words have never passed his lips, in regard to book Jon.

He has said (generally) that unless you see the body, you can reasonably have doubts that a character has died. (paraphrase)

The show gave Jon many more attackers than the books (not to mention one that doesn't even exist in the books) and it showed us all of their blows connecting. We only see two knives connecting in the books. Jon thinks there are another two, but he can't see them, so we don't know (yet) whether he received one or two more stabs, or whether he was just expecting them to come from the other two men he saw with Bowen in the shieldhall. We do know the wound to his neck was only a graze, but we can't even see the wound delivered by Bowen, though it was delivered to a potentially vital spot. We don't see puddles of Jon's blood on the ground.

Even so, I don't say the belly wound is easily survivable (perhaps it's not).. at least, perhaps not by an ordinary person. But then , Jon is not an ordinary person.

In the books, we saw Summer's presence lend strength to Bran in his coma. Next, we saw Jon's presence lend strength to Ghost when he was attacked by Orell's eagle, which helped Ghost to get to his feet, although pretty badly wounded. (He had collapsed before Jon found him.)...But Ghost's wounds still needed attending, and I assume it will be the same for Jon.

GRRM has given Jon the tendency to enter a fighting frenzy reminiscent of berserkers, and has had the Freys (falsely) attribute werewolf-like capabilities to Robb. Why? ... One of the things that werewolves are known for in our mythology is the ability to keep going in spite of their wounds, followed by very accelerated healing afterwards. There may be an element of this about Jon. It would only be an increase in the wolf blood strength-lending phenomenon.

But if you don't see these hints in the text, it would seem strange for Jon to get to his feet. I think the hints are intentional and will play a part eventually. This could be the moment.

I never thought that the chapters I mentioned with Arya and the Hound spelled the end for them either, but many readers did.

7 hours ago, Masha said:

 He collapses, feels "only cold" and stops feeling the pain, all hallmarks of loosing blood rapidly as well as lapsing into unconsciousness (at least) and definitely symptoms of dying. 

I would expect Jon to be incapacitated at very least for several chapters and not able to move in his own body. 

 

I completely disagree with the statement in bold. I know it's a reading shared by many, but I think it's simply wrong. We should realise that the whole attack takes place in less than 30 sec. (perhaps considerably less). We know the neck wound was a graze.. meaning no major veins or arteries were cut. Where is the supposed massive blood loss coming from? I've yet to see an adequate answer.

Just like the need to "see the body" .. unless we get to see a replay from another POV, or some other explanation, I have grave doubts about what struck Jon between the shoulder blades. As I tire of repeating, he can't see what strikes him..  could be poor aim by an attacker that just pushes him forward ... could be a lunge from a wolf.. could be a shove or elbow from someone trying to aid him. Horse and Rory (his tail) were with him.

If he never felt the fourth knife, and doesn't see it, how can we know if there was one? We're in his PoV. He thinks there is one, but any character can be wrong.

Likewise I can't buy that he's losing conscious (in the usual sense). He may equally be conscious, or going into the state he was in during his bout with Emmett - able to see, react and attack, but not able to consciously remember it afterwards.

[MorgulisMaximus]

42 minutes ago, bemused said:

I always think it's a bad idea to try to project what will happen in the books by the show. It may or may not be true to the books at any given moment

Yes, definitely a bad idea... but speculation is so fun! Theoretically, if the overall plot of the show is derived from the overall plot of the books, then it should be possible invert the derivation process. Yes, it seems very messy and prone to error. But only because we do not fully understand Benioff and Weiss's thought process. Their thinking is based on a number of factors including financial constraints (set costs, cast costs, preferential tax breaks), time constraints (weather conditions, filming timelines, cast availability), past decisions, audience reaction/complaints and yes the dreaded marketing value. As overwhelmingly complicated as this all seems, not all factors are created equal. Some will have greater weight than others. And these weights can change over time due to yet other factors including a sudden call from the studio head demanding such and such. Once we have the equation for D&D's derivation process we can just plug it in and out pops the GRRM plot from the books. Simple as that.

[bemused]

 /\ Great..I'll leave it to you...

[kissdbyfire]

9 hours ago, bemused said:

I always think it's a bad idea to try to project what will happen in the books by the show. It may or may not be true to the books at any given moment (We already know it has deviated from the books in the attempt on Jon's life).. And of course GRRM wouldn't give away , one way or the other, whether Jon was alive or dead. In fact that "Oh, so you think he's dead, do you?" was in reply to someone taking it for a fact that Jon was dead, and cast a bit of doubt on their assumption. He's not to blame for all HBO's "Dead is dead" declarations... those words have never passed his lips, in regard to book Jon.

He has said (generally) that unless you see the body, you can reasonably have doubts that a character has died. (paraphrase)

The show gave Jon many more attackers than the books (not to mention one that doesn't even exist in the books) and it showed us all of their blows connecting. We only see two knives connecting in the books. Jon thinks there are another two, but he can't see them, so we don't know (yet) whether he received one or two more stabs, or whether he was just expecting them to come from the other two men he saw with Bowen in the shieldhall. We do know the wound to his neck was only a graze, but we can't even see the wound delivered by Bowen, though it was delivered to a potentially vital spot. We don't see puddles of Jon's blood on the ground.

Even so, I don't say the belly wound is easily survivable (perhaps it's not).. at least, perhaps not by an ordinary person. But then , Jon is not an ordinary person.

In the books, we saw Summer's presence lend strength to Bran in his coma. Next, we saw Jon's presence lend strength to Ghost when he was attacked by Orell's eagle, which helped Ghost to get to his feet, although pretty badly wounded. (He had collapsed before Jon found him.)...But Ghost's wounds still needed attending, and I assume it will be the same for Jon.

GRRM has given Jon the tendency to enter a fighting frenzy reminiscent of berserkers, and has had the Freys (falsely) attribute werewolf-like capabilities to Robb. Why? ... One of the things that werewolves are known for in our mythology is the ability to keep going in spite of their wounds, followed by very accelerated healing afterwards. There may be an element of this about Jon. It would only be an increase in the wolf blood strength-lending phenomenon.

But if you don't see these hints in the text, it would seem strange for Jon to get to his feet. I think the hints are intentional and will play a part eventually. This could be the moment.

I never thought that the chapters I mentioned with Arya and the Hound spelled the end for them either, but many readers did.

I completely disagree with the statement in bold. I know it's a reading shared by many, but I think it's simply wrong. We should realise that the whole attack takes place in less than 30 sec. (perhaps considerably less). We know the neck wound was a graze.. meaning no major veins or arteries were cut. Where is the supposed massive blood loss coming from? I've yet to see an adequate answer.

Just like the need to "see the body" .. unless we get to see a replay from another POV, or some other explanation, I have grave doubts about what struck Jon between the shoulder blades. As I tire of repeating, he can't see what strikes him..  could be poor aim by an attacker that just pushes him forward ... could be a lunge from a wolf.. could be a shove or elbow from someone trying to aid him. Horse and Rory (his tail) were with him.

If he never felt the fourth knife, and doesn't see it, how can we know if there was one? We're in his PoV. He thinks there is one, but any character can be wrong.

Likewise I can't buy that he's losing conscious (in the usual sense). He may equally be conscious, or going into the state he was in during his bout with Emmett - able to see, react and attack, but not able to consciously remember it afterwards.

Agree. Also worth mentioning, we don't know exactly how long are the blades the attackers use, but Martin writes 'daggers'.

dagger

noun   /ˈdæɡər/

      

› a short knife, used as a weapon

 

And we know Jon is wearing layers and layers of woollen small clothes, leather, mail perhaps, fur. I don't see how the short blade of a dagger would be able to, for instance, nick his spleen or something. Especially if the person wielding said dagger strikes with less than enthusiastic force.My take ever since reading Dance for the very first time is that he's wounded, will be out of commission for a while, possibly warging Ghost, but that's it. He won't die.

 

 

[JonisHenryTudor]

I personally believe that in Winds we will get a continuation chapter.It will pick up where it left off with a major fight as castle black. There are already strong hints that a rebellion in in full swing at the time of Jon's stabbing, but the stabbing draws our attention away from that. 

I am not suggesting a first chapter (although it wouldn't surprise me), but I do believe that the next wall chapter will be towards the beginning and will continue with the ending of Jon's final chapter. It did end with..., so I can see ...and Jon in Ghost charging to his body. Or something like that. Still don't believe he will actually be dead. While all this is going on, I think a rebellion begins to shred CB and the NW...

 

[JonisHenryTudor]

On 3/10/2016 at 10:38 AM, Masha said:

Frankly speaking, if GRRM does go this way - that Jon's wounds is not REALLY serious and he is able to get up immediately and join the fight, this will feel to me, personally, as a "gotcha" moment. Do forgive me for doubling down on this. But after all noise starting from the time of ADWD release and especially after all "Jon is REALLY dead" and "dead is dead" from the show for the whole last year, if in the books it ends up being an easily survivable wound, I would be extremely disappointed and it will feel like a cheap fake out to me . (And not just show, since GRRM maintained the whole mystique of Jon is dead/deadly wounds by playing along to him fans and interviews, way before the 5th season started, ever since the last book was released by various hints like "so you think he is dead?" replies). So in my personal opinion, if after all this brouhaha,  Jon just gets up and fights, it would feel like really cheap shot by GRRM towards the readers.

As to your points re: Hound hitting Arya with the axe/hammer(?), I, myself, never actually thought that he killed her, I immediately thought he knocked her out to shut her up a la numerous tv/movie scenes when someone knocks out another with a handle of a gun, just a medieval version of that. When Hound was left dying of his wounds by Arya, he was still conscious and aware, I assumed it would take him at least couple of days to die with no help .Obviously the help had come. Neither one of them felt like a definite this is it moment to me as Jon's scenes do. He collapses, feels "only cold" and stops feeling the pain, all hallmarks of loosing blood rapidly as well as lapsing into unconsciousness (at least) and definitely symptoms of dying. 

I would expect Jon to be incapacitated at very least for several chapters and not able to move in his own body. 

 

I personally think the show went that route to allow Martin to have his moment with Jon. I don't think it would be a cheap shot, the wounds are not what you think. He may be injured, but not necessarily dead (had a thread a looooong time ago about this...). To be honest, from my pov, having Jon resurrected would ruin it for me. Surviving stab wounds is not unheard of, it happens all the time, but the resurrection theme is overplayed in the books. Just my thoughts.  Especially as we have Robert Strong somewhat paralleling a potential Jon resurrection. I just find the entire idea lazy. Yes, he could. But Jon actually surviving the attack would be a twist in the sense that most characters have died in similar situations. 

 

Aside from that, this is the only chapter that Martin has ended with ... (or to be continued) which means the scene is not over. Not the same as Bran 1, then Bran 2. But literally the scene is not over yet thus (...), so we don't have all the information just a glimpse at what is happening at the wall. The rest of that scene is still in need of telling. 

 

I don't recall or have the time right now, but has Martin ever ended a chapter (I know he has not with ...) and then picked up the story again in the middle of a battle, etc. I am not talking about Ned's challenge at court, then the next scene in the dungeons. That is a continuation of an arc, not a scene, huge difference.  

 

 

The best example I can think of right now is in the movies Lord of the Rings. This particular scene at the wall reminds me of the finals scenes of The Two Towers. The screenplay kept jumping from one fight to the other.  When it jumped back, it picked up with the fighting....that is how I see the final wall scene...

[bemused]

8 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Agree. Also worth mentioning, we don't know exactly how long are the blades the attackers use, but Martin writes 'daggers'.

dagger

noun   /ˈdæɡər/

      

› a short knife, used as a weapon

 

And we know Jon is wearing layers and layers of woollen small clothes, leather, mail perhaps, fur. I don't see how the short blade of a dagger would be able to, for instance, nick his spleen or something. Especially if the person wielding said dagger strikes with less than enthusiastic force.My take ever since reading Dance for the very first time is that he's wounded, will be out of commission for a while, possibly warging Ghost, but that's it. He won't die.

 

 

Agreed to that, too.

We've had threads where people posted pictures of various daggers, showing a range of possible blade lengths, but none are very long.

In spite of repeated descriptions of all the layers of clothing worn in the far north, some readers seem to overlook these, and assume Jon is lightly clothed. And in spite of the fact that it would only be common sense to be wearing mail, either over or under other layers..not to mention two hints that Jon does habitually wear mail (one from Val, one that appears to show Jon was customizing a mail shirt for himself, soon after becoming LC), which are also often ignored.

I'm betting Jon's first real skinchanging experience will be sudden and spontaneous, but because he's older than Bran or Arya, and because he's aware of the capabilities of other skinchangers, he'll be able to adjust more easily, in some ways.

There are so many possibilities that have been identified in the books that may come into play, depending on who else is present that we don't know about - because we're in Jon's POV and he didn't happen to bump into them (These could be either in Jon's favour or against it).. E.G. Alliser Thorne, Morna (wildling medicine saved Mance, who really was suffering major blood loss ). Where are Edd, Iron Emmett, young Dryn, Big Liddle, Ty, Satin , the twins..etc.,etc.? Any or all of them could be there, logically.

Now, I'm speculating, but I'm not sure any of them could take charge, on their own - but I feel sure Mel or Selyse could not take charge. (I think, e.g., Edd would likely be someone Jon would put in charge, if he left the wall , but doubt Edd could seize control, himself.)

I don't think the story can afford to have Jon completely out of the action for any great length of time (perhaps a few days, but maybe not even that. Hours may be more like it). Even if he's not fully recovered, physically, his brain will be needed. He is the man with the plan. I think he must ride out to confront Ramsay, who I feel sure is coming.(I think there's definite foreshadowing for this.)

If the wall is to fall, I think it's much too soon. Just as it would be pretty senseless to have devoted so much time developing Jon's character to kill him off at this point, I can't feel we've been let in on his strategies only to have them come to nothing. They may not be enough in the end, but I think we have to see the attempt to make them work, even if they have only limited success.

[JonisHenryTudor]

16 hours ago, MLR said:

Yes, definitely a bad idea... but speculation is so fun! Theoretically, if the overall plot of the show is derived from the overall plot of the books, then it should be possible invert the derivation process. Yes, it seems very messy and prone to error. But only because we do not fully understand Benioff and Weiss's thought process. Their thinking is based on a number of factors including financial constraints (set costs, cast costs, preferential tax breaks), time constraints (weather conditions, filming timelines, cast availability), past decisions, audience reaction/complaints and yes the dreaded marketing value. As overwhelmingly complicated as this all seems, not all factors are created equal. Some will have greater weight than others. And these weights can change over time due to yet other factors including a sudden call from the studio head demanding such and such. Once we have the equation for D&D's derivation process we can just plug it in and out pops the GRRM plot from the books. Simple as that.

Personally I think they will change a lot in the next two seasons to allow Martin to have his moment. The end point for each character, etc will be the same, but the road different. I think Jon's stabbing is just one example of this. Entirely different in the show, but it also allows Martin to do what he intended, but both mediums getting the same result. Show Jon might die and be resurrected. Book Jon may not. In the end, both are alive and well despite arriving there from two different routes. 

[bemused]

52 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

I personally believe that in Winds we will get a continuation chapter.It will pick up where it left off with a major fight as castle black. There are already strong hints that a rebellion in in full swing at the time of Jon's stabbing, but the stabbing draws our attention away from that. 

I am not suggesting a first chapter (although it wouldn't surprise me), but I do believe that the next wall chapter will be towards the beginning and will continue with the ending of Jon's final chapter. It did end with..., so I can see ...and Jon in Ghost charging to his body. Or something like that. Still don't believe he will actually be dead. While all this is going on, I think a rebellion begins to shred CB and the NW...

 

I agree re: continuation of the scene .. (or maybe a partial replay).. 

The only thing that makes me a bit unsure a bout a Jon-in-Ghost chapter, or even just a continuation of the fight scene from inside Ghost, is the way the "inside wolf" scenes are usually worded. It still might be difficult to get a clear picture of what's going on... (but I wouldn't rule out that GRRM could pull it off).

Though I've never been able to find the exact clip or quote again, my memory of the "No new POV" business is that GRRM said "No new POVs ..(pause).. from characters we haven't met yet."  So even though he's probably going to be reducing the number of POVs by the end of the book, the door is open for Mel, who already has a POV, or anyone else could have a stand alone POV, as Mel did in ADWD (maybe not even someone sympathetic to Jon - that would be cool too.)

I'd love a wildling POV (just saying..)

[JonisHenryTudor]

21 minutes ago, bemused said:

I agree re: continuation of the scene .. (or maybe a partial replay).. 

The only thing that makes me a bit unsure a bout a Jon-in-Ghost chapter, or even just a continuation of the fight scene from inside Ghost, is the way the "inside wolf" scenes are usually worded. It still might be difficult to get a clear picture of what's going on... (but I wouldn't rule out that GRRM could pull it off).

Though I've never been able to find the exact clip or quote again, my memory of the "No new POV" business is that GRRM said "No new POVs ..(pause).. from characters we haven't met yet."  So even though he's probably going to be reducing the number of POVs by the end of the book, the door is open for Mel, who already has a POV, or anyone else could have a stand alone POV, as Mel did in ADWD (maybe not even someone sympathetic to Jon - that would be cool too.)

I'd love a wildling POV (just saying..)

What I thought could potentially happen is the chapter simply opening with Jon. Jon's first chapter. Begin with a one or two paragraph narrative from Jon's head. Then he could use a paragraph break and a few lines from inside Ghosts head with a final paragraph break. A lot of writers do this to switch povs or moments in time within a chapter. So it is possible, i suppose. 

 

It could be a very short chapter with little or no dialogue. Jon could go between him and Ghost (paragraph breaks), or not. In his head (narration), Jon could witness the events unfold around him, while his saviors drag him to safety. I am not suggesting this would happen, but do you recall the scene in Lord of the Rings (movie) when Haldir is dying as Vigo rushes to his side. That same idea. I can see a continuation being more of a narration from Jon's mind of everything going on around him. Watching wildlings and his "good" brothers die along with a few rogues. His next chapter would be him laying in the infirmary, or CB's version of it.    

 

I have had many ideas on how this may pick up, but Jon watching the chaos around him could lend to a subtle transformation instead of this massive, over-the-top magical transformation that many (admittedly myself at points) expect or think will occur. I don't know what will happen, but that is one way that Martin could potentially work this. 

 

A wildling pov would be awesome. 

[bemused]

1 hour ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

I don't recall or have the time right now, but has Martin ever ended a chapter (I know he has not with ...) and then picked up the story again in the middle of a battle, etc. I am not talking about Ned's challenge at court, then the next scene in the dungeons. That is a continuation of an arc, not a scene, huge difference.  

Just to mess with us (and I suspect it's intentionally meant to compare with Jon's scene) he does end one other chapter that I know of with "..." and it does end by breaking out of POV to third person - the Theon chapter at the sack of WF...

Quote

 

He saw Ulf go down with a crossbow bolt through the belly as he ran for the Great Hall. Maester Luwin was trying to reach him when a knight on a warhorse planted a spear between his shoulders, then swung back to ride over him. Another man whipped a torch round and round his head and then lofted it toward the thatched roof of the stables. “Save me the Freys,” the Bastard was shouting as the flames roared upward, “and burn the rest. Burn it, burn it all.”

The last thing Theon Greyjoy saw was Smiler, kicking free of the burning stables with his mane ablaze, screaming, rearing...

 

I have no degree, but that sentence is pretty clearly not in Theon's POV, (suggested by the use of "Theon Greyjoy"). It's even separated from his stream of consciousness on the page, by breaking out of the paragraph... This is not the same in Jon's case and his last sentence is written as a continuation of his stream of consciousness...

Quote

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

 

[JonisHenryTudor]

19 minutes ago, bemused said:

Just to mess with us (and I suspect it's intentionally meant to compare with Jon's scene) he does end one other chapter that I know of with "..." and it does end by breaking out of POV to third person - the Theon chapter at the sack of WF...

I have no degree, but that sentence is pretty clearly not in Theon's POV, (suggested by the use of "Theon Greyjoy") it's even separated from his stream of consciousness on the page... but it's not the same in Jon's case and his last sentence is written as a continuation of his stream of consciousness...

 

Oh thanks. I stand corrected then, it has occurred at least once.  

[bemused]

12 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Oh thanks. I stand corrected then, it has occurred at least once.  

Someone corrected me on that point one time too, which is how I knew of it  

 But weighing that one example (maybe there's another, IDK ..) against the myriad of examples throughout the books where "..." simply denotes a pause, I think it's a pause in the case of Jon's last chapter.

[kissdbyfire]

2 hours ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Personally I think they will change a lot in the next two seasons to allow Martin to have his moment. The end point for each character, etc will be the same, but the road different. I think Jon's stabbing is just one example of this. Entirely different in the show, but it also allows Martin to do what he intended, but both mediums getting the same result. Show Jon might die and be resurrected. Book Jon may not. In the end, both are alive and well despite arriving there from two different routes. 

I disagree wholeheartedly with this idea you keep bringing up that the Benioff and Weiss are doing "X" to allow Martin to have his moment or whatever. I don't mean to come across as rude, but I see nothing that indicates this in any way, shape, or form. 

The other thing is, Martin has said in an interview (in Norway, iirc) something to the effect of,

"I have 12 main characters, and not all will have the same ending books and show". 

So, yeah. The final destination for 4 or 5 characters, and my guess would be Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Bran, Arya may be the same. The rest? The other characters, the journeys? I think there'll be little in common with the books. 

@bemused, excellent points, as ever. I've a few things to add, but no time now. I'll get back to it later.

[JonisHenryTudor]

28 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree wholeheartedly with this idea you keep bringing up that the Benioff and Weiss are doing "X" to allow Martin to have his moment or whatever. I don't mean to come across as rude, but I see nothing that indicates this in any way, shape, or form. 

The other thing is, Martin has said in an interview (in Norway, iirc) something to the effect of,

"I have 12 main characters, and not all will have the same ending books and show". 

So, yeah. The final destination for 4 or 5 characters, and my guess would be Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Bran, Arya may be the same. The rest? The other characters, the journeys? I think there'll be little in common with the books. 

@bemused, excellent points, as ever. I've a few things to add, but no time now. I'll get back to it later.

I only suggested that, because they openly stated at one point that they fully intended to give Martin the opportunity to divulge the "mystery". From that, I suggested the above. It was essentially an idea that they were treading carefully to avoid spoiling it for martin should they pass him. That was then (over a year ago I believe...), and since then it is clear that they will spoil a bunch (Martin's own words recently on NaB). For that reason, I suggested that they may alter certain things so as to avoid spoiling Martin's entire story.  That really is all. I was also responding to someone discussing the visual story deviating from the written source. 

[Guest]

I thinkJon has to die to be released from his vow to the NW, so he will die and be resurrected in some manner.

I agree with those that think Wun-Wun will do some serious damage to the NW along with the wildings. The wildings like Jon and when they find out what happened it will get ugly. I think the NW will lose in the end.  

[kissdbyfire]

21 hours ago, bemused said:

Agreed to that, too.

We've had threads where people posted pictures of various daggers, showing a range of possible blade lengths, but none are very long.

Yeah, I remember those threads, too!

Quote

In spite of repeated descriptions of all the layers of clothing worn in the far north, some readers seem to overlook these, and assume Jon is lightly clothed. And in spite of the fact that it would only be common sense to be wearing mail, either over or under other layers..not to mention two hints that Jon does habitually wear mail (one from Val, one that appears to show Jon was customizing a mail shirt for himself, soon after becoming LC), which are also often ignored.

To me it would make zero sense for him not to be wearing mail besides all the layers of clothing. Especially after the chat with Tormund where they make the new plans; he knew  there'd be plenty of unhappy people once he announces his plans, and it's not like his relationship with the likes of Marsh and Yarwick was hunky dory before. He's even thinking about maester's Aemon advice, about how men sitting down comfortably are more likely to listen etc.

Quote

I'm betting Jon's first real skinchanging experience will be sudden and spontaneous, but because he's older than Bran or Arya, and because he's aware of the capabilities of other skinchangers, he'll be able to adjust more easily, in some ways.

Yes, agree completely. 

Quote

There are so many possibilities that have been identified in the books that may come into play, depending on who else is present that we don't know about - because we're in Jon's POV and he didn't happen to bump into them (These could be either in Jon's favour or against it).. E.G. Alliser Thorne, Morna (wildling medicine saved Mance, who really was suffering major blood loss ). Where are Edd, Iron Emmett, young Dryn, Big Liddle, Ty, Satin , the twins..etc.,etc.? Any or all of them could be there, logically.

Now, I'm speculating, but I'm not sure any of them could take charge, on their own - but I feel sure Mel or Selyse could not take charge. (I think, e.g., Edd would likely be someone Jon would put in charge, if he left the wall , but doubt Edd could seize control, himself.)

True. I still think Morna's absence is extremely conspicuous. When Jon first arrives in the Shieldhall and notes who is there and who isn't, he never mentions her. And she's right next to CB, Queensgate, Tormund on one side of CB, and Morna on the other. Could it be that Martin just forgot all about her? Possible, I suppose, but I find it extremely unlikely. After all, not only she has a cool description and a cool intro, but she was given a castle right next to CB. I'm expecting her to play a part in the aftermath of the attempt.

As to who will be in charge, I think Marsh & co will try to impose order and a chain of command, but I don't expect him to succeed. I think the most likely person to take charge, and the best suited person for the task, is Tormund. Which would be cool as it would tie in nicely with my long held belief that First Men blood is required at Wall, and by the NW.

Quote

I don't think the story can afford to have Jon completely out of the action for any great length of time (perhaps a few days, but maybe not even that. Hours may be more like it). Even if he's not fully recovered, physically, his brain will be needed. He is the man with the plan. I think he must ride out to confront Ramsay, who I feel sure is coming.(I think there's definite foreshadowing for this.)

If the wall is to fall, I think it's much too soon. Just as it would be pretty senseless to have devoted so much time developing Jon's character to kill him off at this point, I can't feel we've been let in on his strategies only to have them come to nothing. They may not be enough in the end, but I think we have to see the attempt to make them work, even if they have only limited success.

Again, agree. I don't think Jon can be out of commission too long. My guess is anything from a couple of days to a week or so, tops. 

[MGraham]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

To me it would make zero sense for him not to be wearing mail besides all the layers of clothing. Especially after the chat with Tormund where they make the new plans; he knew  there'd be plenty of unhappy people once he announces his plans, and it's not like his relationship with the likes of Marsh and Yarwick was hunky dory before. He's even thinking about maester's Aemon advice, about how men sitting down comfortably are more likely to listen etc.

Agree with you on that Jon might be wearing mail and it's a variation on the old movie favorite.... someone gets shot but they aren't dead as they where wearing a bulletproof vest...

I accept everything said about not second guessing the books with information from the show BUT assuming the TV writers have some foreknowledge of the book, it would seem odd that they would have Jon as dead and resurrect him in the show if something similar doesn't happen in the book because it would be needlessly complicated if in the book he isn't badly hurt at all.

 

[kissdbyfire]

24 minutes ago, MGraham said:

Agree with you on that Jon might be wearing mail and it's a variation on the old movie favorite.... someone gets shot but they aren't dead as they where wearing a bulletproof vest...

I accept everything said about not second guessing the books with information from the show BUT assuming the TV writers have some foreknowledge of the book, it would seem odd that they would have Jon as dead and resurrect him in the show if something similar doesn't happen in the book because it would be needlessly complicated if in the book he isn't badly hurt at all.

 

I'm not so sure. The truth is, we simply won't know until we've had access to both versions of events. But I can see things playing out differently. And I do mean as differently as wounded/comatose in the books, and dead and resurrected n the show. Because from previous decisions, changes, deviations, etc etc, I think show wise, they're OK as long as the character ends up in the right place, at the right moment to do what they 'have to do' (checking plot point boxes). 

[MGraham]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

I'm not so sure. The truth is, we simply won't know until we've had access to both versions of events. But I can see things playing out differently. And I do mean as differently as wounded/comatose in the books, and dead and resurrected n the show. Because from previous decisions, changes, deviations, etc etc, I think show wise, they're OK as long as the character ends up in the right place, at the right moment to do what they 'have to do' (checking plot point boxes). 

I agree with you. I just think it would be an odd decision for a show with a budget to have to shoot several scenes when they could have just had him stand up and say "I'm not hurt.... i was wearing chain mail the whole time..."