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Small Questions v. 10105

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10 hours ago, Yaya said:

Hi Everyone:
Since we are on the subject of Aegon - what are the main theories concerning him?
Why do 80% of the READING population think he's fake?
 

Here are a few discussions

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/86100-aegon-varys-and-serra-the-backfyre-triangle/

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/109569-aegon-vis-identity-compiling-the-evidence/

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/156odh/spoilers_all_complete_analysis_of_the_blackfyre/

 

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On 8/20/2018 at 2:35 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Connington served with the Golden Company for five years following his exile in 283 AC. Assuming he would have taken over care for Aegon shortly after leaving the company, that would have been in 288 AC, when Aegon some six years old.

So Aegon was six years old at least. If Connington did not immediately after leaving the company began to train Aegon, the boy would have been a few years older. 

Or near enough to make no matter. ;)

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On 8/20/2018 at 11:35 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Connington served with the Golden Company for five years following his exile in 283 AC. Assuming he would have taken over care for Aegon shortly after leaving the company, that would have been in 288 AC, when Aegon some six years old.

So Aegon was six years old at least. If Connington did not immediately after leaving the company began to train Aegon, the boy would have been a few years older. 

Which is one of the biggest holes in the story so far. How is it that Connington believes this child is Aegon? Why would he believe either Varys or Illyrio? Not a small question, but a crucial one

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Which is one of the biggest holes in the story so far. How is it that Connington believes this child is Aegon? Why would he believe either Varys or Illyrio? Not a small question, but a crucial one

They have fooled Myles Toyne too. 

I know it's not the same thing of fooling JC, but I feel it's worth remembering.

Edited by Ckram

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Which is one of the biggest holes in the story so far. How is it that Connington believes this child is Aegon? Why would he believe either Varys or Illyrio? Not a small question, but a crucial one

That's the question isn't it? Was Jon Conn so eager to believe and wanting to redeem himself so badly that he believed them, or did they present him with some kind of proof? Maybe Aegon had a birthmark on his left butt cheek in the shape of a red dragon. I'm just joking about this.

Edited by Widow's Watch

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24 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

That's the question isn't it? Was Jon Conn so eager to believe and wanting to redeem himself so badly that he believed them, or did they present him with some kind of proof? Maybe Aegon had a birthmark on his left butt cheek in the shape of a red dragon. I'm just joking about this.

Love the ancient movie reference! Danny Kaye would be proud. If anyone hasn’t seen the Court Jester, then you’re missing a classic.

Also, who cared for this child in his first years after the sack? Was it Septa Lemore and why would Jon Connington believe her?

Edited by SFDanny

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2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Which is one of the biggest holes in the story so far. How is it that Connington believes this child is Aegon? Why would he believe either Varys or Illyrio? Not a small question, but a crucial one

As Petyr explains, men see what they expect to see. Exhibit A...

Quote

 

"He did not know you," Ser Rodrik said after, wondering.

"He saw a pair of mud-spattered travelers by the side of the road, wet and tired. It would never occur to him to suspect that one of them was the daughter of his liege lord. I think we shall be safe enough at the inn, Ser Rodrik."

 

 

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And also, potentially more mystery - if Aegon is really Aegon, then Elia Martell would have known of the plot to save him. 

Thanks for the conversations & links, I'm going to start reviewing!

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3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As Petyr explains, men see what they expect to see. Exhibit A...

Yes, people believe what they expect to see, but how is it a child everyone expects to be dead is suddenly alive, and those who we expect to not believe this mummer's trick unexpectedly believe? It's not good enough that Jon Connington, or more importantly Doran Martell, WANT to believe the trick. That they would be willing to go to war and possibly lose everything, it takes more than wanting. It takes proof that a miracle occurred and Aegon is alive. That "proof" may be a lie, and I think it is, but it has to be there. I don't see how Varys or Illyrio can provide that by themselves. The testimony or evidence from some one else that these men would believe is necessary. The five year gap must be explained to them. And to us.

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7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Love the ancient movie reference! Danny Kaye would be proud. If anyone hasn’t seen the Court Jester, then you’re missing a classic.

Also, who cared for this child in his first years after the sack? Was it Septa Lemore and why would Jon Connington believe her?

The clothes meant for a child Tyron finds in Illyrio's manse might indicate the child lived there until JC took over the care.

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Which is one of the biggest holes in the story so far. How is it that Connington believes this child is Aegon? Why would he believe either Varys or Illyrio? Not a small question, but a crucial one

I wouldn't call it a hole in the story, as the story is not finished yet. We  still have two more books to go. :)

Spoiler

I can only guess, but I suppose that the upcoming meeting of JC/Aegon and Arianne will give more than enough opportunity to reveal such information, considering Doran has the same question ("Is it truly him?").

 

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen, thanks for the information.

9 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Yes, people believe what they expect to see, but how is it a child everyone expects to be dead is suddenly alive, and those who we expect to not believe this mummer's trick unexpectedly believe? It's not good enough that Jon Connington, or more importantly Doran Martell, WANT to believe the trick. That they would be willing to go to war and possibly lose everything, it takes more than wanting. It takes proof that a miracle occurred and Aegon is alive. That "proof" may be a lie, and I think it is, but it has to be there. I don't see how Varys or Illyrio can provide that by themselves. The testimony or evidence from some one else that these men would believe is necessary. The five year gap must be explained to them. And to us.

I agree, it makes the story harder to believe.

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13 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The clothes meant for a child Tyron finds in Illyrio's manse might indicate the child lived there until JC took over the care.

I think that is probably right, given Illyrio's close ties to Young Griff. But Illyrio has no credibility when it comes to vouching for "Aegon's" identity. He can merely repeat the story Young Griff has been taught about the "Pisswater Prince." The crucial test is someone who was with the babe when he was supposedly smuggled out of King's Landing before the sack. Someone who Rhaegar's and Elia's allies will believe. Varys doesn't work. He was working against Rhaegar and Elia all along. Why would anyone believe him? Or a lackey of Varys, who would say whatever he was told to say. Especially if the story is that this took place shortly before the sack. We know Varys is in King's Landing at Robert's coronation. He is not sailing to Pentos to deliver a one year old to his old friend Illyrio. Who took the child from Elia's arms and actually smuggled him out of King's Landing? Why should anyone believe that story? Varys and Illyrio's whole plot seems to rests on the idea that at least the Dornish will accept the tale.

Let me come clean here, as most people who have read my posts know, including probably you RT, I think the answer is that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne. She can testify, truthfully or not, to this story and say she brought the boy across the Narrow Sea and has been with him since that day. Ashara would be believed by Jon Connington and Prince Doran. Varys and Illyrio would not.

I wouldn't call it a hole in the story, as the story is not finished yet. We  still have two more books to go. :)

Ok, I buy that. How about a huge unanswered question in the "Aegon" plot?

 

13 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:
  Reveal hidden contents

I can only guess, but I suppose that the upcoming meeting of JC/Aegon and Arianne will give more than enough opportunity to reveal such information, considering Doran has the same question ("Is it truly him?").

 

 

Spoiler

This is where I think Septa Lemore steps forward and reveals her identity and her story. 

Ok, my last post here. As I said, it is not a small question, and I've violated the rules of this thread too long. As usual, RT, when you post things it grabs my attention and I had to respond.

Edited by SFDanny

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25 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I think that is probably right, given Illyrio's close ties to Young Griff. But Illyrio has no credibility when it comes to vouching for "Aegon's" identity. He can merely repeat the story Young Griff has been taught about the "Pisswater Prince." The crucial test is someone who was with the babe when he was supposedly smuggled out of King's Landing before the sack. Someone who Rhaegar's and Elia's allies will believe. Varys doesn't work. He was working against Rhaegar and Elia all along. Why would anyone believe him? Or a lackey of Varys, who would say whatever he was told to say. Especially if the story is that this took place shortly before the sack. We know Varys is in King's Landing at Robert's coronation. He is not sailing to Pentos to deliver a one year old to his old friend Illyrio. Who took the child from Elia's arms and actually smuggled him out of King's Landing? Why should anyone believe that story? Varys and Illyrio's whole plot seems to rests on the idea that at least the Dornish will accept the tale.

I agree :)

 

25 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Let me come clean here, as most people who have read my posts know, including probably you RT, I think the answer is that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne. She can testify, truthfully or not, to this story and say she brought the boy across the Narrow Sea and has been with him since that day. Ashara would be believed by Jon Connington and Prince Doran. Varys and Illyrio would not.

I always liked that theory, and personally think it is an interesting possibility. I certainly look forward to learning more about Septa Lemore in Winds.

 

25 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Ok, I buy that. How about a huge unanswered question in the "Aegon" plot?

Definitely!

 

25 minutes ago, SFDanny said:
  Reveal hidden contents

This is where I think Septa Lemore steps forward and reveals her identity and her story. 

Ok, my last post here. As I said, it is not a small question, and I've violated the rules of this thread too long. As usual, RT, when you post things it grabs my attention and I had to respond.

The same thing often happens when I come across one of your posts :)

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9 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Let me come clean here, as most people who have read my posts know, including probably you RT, I think the answer is that Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne. She can testify, truthfully or not, to this story and say she brought the boy across the Narrow Sea and has been with him since that day. Ashara would be believed by Jon Connington and Prince Doran. Varys and Illyrio would not.

How could she do that and still be at Starfall after the war to receive Dawn from Ned?

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40 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

How could she do that and still be at Starfall after the war to receive Dawn from Ned?

Not that I care if Ashara is Septa Lemore and I'd rather she's not, tbh, but Catelyn's information is like very second hand information. Catelyn heard it from the Ned's guards who were not at the ToJ and may not have been with him when he traveled to Starfall. Would Ned have given Dawn to Ashara or to the Lord of Starfall? To me, the story that Catelyn thinks about always sounded like planted information.

Edited by Widow's Watch

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1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

How could she do that and still be at Starfall after the war to receive Dawn from Ned?

Let's assume for argument's sake that Ashara smuggles Aegon out of King's Landing before the sack. Ned arrives at the time of the sack and stays in King's Landing until the day of Robert's coronation. Obviously this gives Ashara a considerable head start to get to Starfall before Ned arrives. Not implying she knows Ned is on his way there. Ned also does not go directly to Starfall. He leads an army to Storm's End before setting off on his journey to Starfall via the Tower of Joy. With her head start, Ashara can also travel at a consistently faster rate than a army of thousands can, and goes to Starfall with Aegon. When Ned arrives he delivers Dawn to the Daynes, not necessarily to Ashara, but assuming she is still in Starfall, she then fakes her death and leaves with Aegon. There is no time problem for Ashara getting to Starfall before Ned gets there.

Edited by SFDanny

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37 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Let's assume for argument's sake that Ashara smuggles Aegon out of King's Landing before the sack. Ned arrives at the time of the sack and stays in King's Landing until the day of Robert's coronation. Obviously this gives Ashara a considerable head start to get to Starfall before Ned arrives. Not implying she knows Ned is on his way there. Ned also does not go directly to Starfall. He leads an army to Storm's End before setting off on his journey to Starfall via the Tower of Joy. With her head start, Ashara can also travel at a consistently faster rate than a army of thousands can, and goes to Starfall with Aegon. When Ned arrives he delivers Dawn to the Daynes, not necessarily to Ashara, but assuming she is still in Starfall, she then fakes her death and leaves with Aegon. There is no time problem for Ashara getting to Starfall before Ned gets there.

I didn't mean to ask how she could have got there before Ned, or in time to meet Ned there. I was more asking about the idea of her bringing him across the Narrow Sea when we hear she met Ned at Starfall well after the sack. Furthermore, why would Ashara return to Dorne with Aegon, only to bring him to Starfall instead of Sunspear? Why would she not alert Doran and the Martells? And then bring him to Essos? That just doesn't sound plausible to me.

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3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I didn't mean to ask how she could have got there before Ned, or in time to meet Ned there. I was more asking about the idea of her bringing him across the Narrow Sea when we hear she met Ned at Starfall well after the sack. Furthermore, why would Ashara return to Dorne with Aegon, only to bring him to Starfall instead of Sunspear? Why would she not alert Doran and the Martells? And then bring him to Essos? That just doesn't sound plausible to me.

Sorry, @Bael's Bastard, I misunderstood your last post. I thought it was about timing or sequence of events.

I'll try to respond to the rest in a different thread. I have to run now so give me a few hours to start it.

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Quote

 

I'm saying some Night's Watch expedition leaves out and it has Fred, Bill, and Sam on it. And Elio of Westeros points out "you actually killed Bill two books ago." Oh, damn. I forgot about that. -SSM 2011 Aug.

 

There's no Fred, and Bill survived in Craster's Keep. @Ran, would you happen to remember who/which event GRRM was referring to, or he was just talking in a general sense?

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1 hour ago, zionius said:

There's no Fred, and Bill survived in Craster's Keep. @Ran, would you happen to remember who/which event GRRM was referring to, or he was just talking in a general sense?

Just general there.

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