Small Questions v. 10105

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Because if Jon's age/"dob" is uncertain a number of options regarding his parentage are at least possible.

Lots of things are possible as long as you can explain that blue flower growing from a chink in the wall of ice. But I prefer to keep my larger pots on the shelf in orderly fashion so they don't fall and crack. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 9-2-2017 at 5:48 AM, Lord Wraith said:

Anyone else notice that Jon turns 15 before Robb does.

Jon turns 15 on 8/2.

Robb turns 15 on 9/13.

Thoughts?

Considering that Catelyn believes Jon to have been conceived after her marriage to Ned, something which Ned repeats to Robert, it seems that Jon celebrates his nameday after Robb.

The issue the timeline has with placing Jon's nameday, is connected to Tyrion's abduction. Tyrion has to travel south problematically fast in order to match him being at the inn with Catelyn being there. We see a similar "problem" occurring when Stannis sails north after the Purple Wedding.

[kissdbyfire]

5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Lots of things are possible as long as you can explain that blue flower growing from a chink in the wall of ice. But I prefer to keep my larger pots on the shelf in orderly fashion so they don't fall and crack. 

And many of the things that are possible are only possible because of the uncertainty and mysteries surrounding them. Once some of the questions are answered and some of the mysteries are solved, some things will no longer be possible. And that's all I was saying.

[MtnLion]

21 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Given the Westerosi seasons, where in the year her nameday falls does not determine whether it was during summer or winter.

Given that 281-282 were winter, at no time would 283 or 284 be considered summer.  That is if one tried to take this sort of tack. Being born during a "summer" storm that destroyed her father's fleet . . .  It is just going to have to be "summer" as we view summer with 12 month seasons. 

[Philokles]

21 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Given that 281-282 were winter, at no time would 283 or 284 be considered summer.  That is if one tried to take this sort of tack. 

Why? There are two whole years since the False Spring for actual spring to come. Given that it has to get from winter in 281 to summer to winter and back to summer by 289, it would need to be summer by 284.

[MtnLion]

14 minutes ago, Horse of Kent said:

Why? There are two whole years since the False Spring for actual spring to come. Given that it has to get from winter in 281 to summer to winter and back to summer by 289, it would need to be summer by 284.

I disagree, and many would.  281 was the false spring, and the beginning of 282 had been so bitterly cold as to freeze the Blackwater over.  The way the wording is presented, GRRM is conveying that Daenerys was born in the seventh or eighth month of the year.  That would agree with Jon being born very late, eleventh or twelfth month of the previous year.  In any event, the rebellion lasted near a year.  There was at least nine months between the Battle of the Bells and the end of the war, for Robb to be born.  Notice that this places Robb's birth in the ninth month of the year, or perhaps a bit later.  And, Jon is born less than ten days before Ned arrives at the tower.  He is more likely born three to five days before Ned arrives. 

Daenerys is born less than nine months after the sack, or she is not Aerys' git (a not unreasonable idea).  But she is born more than eight months after Jon, who is born about a fortnight after the sack.  Make those line up, and it becomes pretty easy to see. 

[Lord Wraith]

14 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Considering that Catelyn believes Jon to have been conceived after her marriage to Ned, something which Ned repeats to Robert, it seems that Jon celebrates his nameday after Robb.

The issue the timeline has with placing Jon's nameday, is connected to Tyrion's abduction. Tyrion has to travel south problematically fast in order to match him being at the inn with Catelyn being there. We see a similar "problem" occurring when Stannis sails north after the Purple Wedding.

Thank you Grand Mistress of the Timelines. So its unclear in your professional option?

Also if you have some free time we are coming up with our own timelines on another forum. http://thelasthearth.com/thread/202/timelines

Any insight you might have would be appreciated.

[SFDanny]

16 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Considering that Catelyn believes Jon to have been conceived after her marriage to Ned, something which Ned repeats to Robert, it seems that Jon celebrates his nameday after Robb.

The issue the timeline has with placing Jon's nameday, is connected to Tyrion's abduction. Tyrion has to travel south problematically fast in order to match him being at the inn with Catelyn being there. We see a similar "problem" occurring when Stannis sails north after the Purple Wedding.

At least with Stannis's voyage north we have "magical winds" that carry his ships to Eastwatch. Tyrion is just faster than it makes sense for him to be.

The problem with Jon's nameday keeps coming up, but it is a lot clearer if people just think of the day in which he has celebrated his nameday all of his life and when he is actually born as possibly two separate dates. It is clear from the books that Jon's nameday is celebrated after Robb's. How long after is the question, not that it is later than Robb's. They both celebrate namedays that place their birth in Year 283 AC. Confusion sets in when people assume the date Martin speaks of for Jon's birth being tied some "eight or nine months or thereabouts" before Dany's is the same as Jon's celebrated one. Does that place Jon's real nameday before Robb's? I think it likely, but we can't be sure. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

14 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Why? There are two whole years since the False Spring for actual spring to come. Given that it has to get from winter in 281 to summer to winter and back to summer by 289, it would need to be summer by 284.

It had been winter for two years when the false spring began in 281 AC, which ended before the year was done. It was winter again at the turning of the year, but we do not know how long winter lasted beyond that point.

Daenerys having been born during a "summer storm" means no more than that she was born during a storm which occured in the summer. It says nothing about the month of the year. With summer in mid 284 AC, there's plenty of time to have had a real spring in between, even if winter had lasted for a few more months beyond the start of 282 AC.

 

10 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

Thank you Grand Mistress of the Timelines. So its unclear in your professional option?

Also if you have some free time we are coming up with our own timelines on another forum. http://thelasthearth.com/thread/202/timelines

Any insight you might have would be appreciated.

The people who originally created the timeline had to make a choice, correctly place Jon's nameday, or try and display Tyrion's journey south as best as they could. They chose the latter, as it makes the timeline more fluid, but it should be clear that Jon celebrates his nameday after Robb does, otherwise Catelyn could not possibly believe that Jon was conceived after her marriage occurred.

We can place Daenerys's birth rather well. Her dragons were born in early 299 AC. She had given birth to Rhaego not long before - several long days before - and at that time, she had been pregnant for nearly nine months. Her handmaidens noticed her pregnancy on her fourteenth nameday, at which point she would have been pregnant for a month or two, maybe three, at least, placing her birth somewhere in the middle of the year.

This can also be concluded the other way around. We know that Robert died in 298 AC and Eddard in 299 AC. When the Cinnamon Wind arrives in Qarth, Daenerys is informed that "not half a year past", the ship had been at Oldtown. From Oldtown, they called at several more ports before reaching Qarth, including Dorne and Lys.

The information he tells us much. Robert is dead, and Eddard arrested, and neither Renly nor Stannis have claimed the crown yet. So from this I think we can conclude that at least when the ship has sailed from Dorne (which it did even less than "not half a year past", considering they had to sail from Oldtown to whichever Dornish port they stopped at), Renly had not yet crowned himself, which we know he does in 299 AC as well (although his wedding to Margaery might still have occurred in 298 AC, there's no way to tell).

This means that we are at most near in the sixth or seventh month of the year, depending on whether the ship left Oldtown "not half a year past" in either late 298 AC or early 299 AC. At at the time Daenerys speaks with the captain of the ship, her fifteenth nameday has already been.

 

The google doc sheet has had threads accompanying it. Together with @Lost Melnibonean and several others I've been able to fix several errors by discussing on these threads. The first one, created by PrivateMajor, has been closed for length quite a while back. I created a second one so people could continue the discussion, but it has been archived.  If there is any interest, I could create a new one, and any adjustments to the document that are necessary could be discussed there? There are still some things that could be improved.. Davos, for example, now spends a full month on a rock without food and with barely any water, which seems a bit long imo. And while the nameday's of Dany, Jon, Robb and Joffrey should be shown in the timeline, given that they appear on page in the text (for Dany and Joffrey) or are mentioned to have been "a few days past" and "a fortnight past" for Robb and Jon, those are the ones we can place. But the timeline currently shows an exact nameday for Arya, Sansa, Bran and Rickon as well, which I personally would not have chosen to do. I would have given a timewindow in which their namedays occur, instead. Not chosen a specific date, since that is rather impossible without more info.

So some improvements are still necessary. 

 

(I haven't gone over the linked timeline in detail yet, but I did spot one little thing that could use some adjustment. Robert and Cersei marry twice. 284 AC is the correct date, according to both Yandel's statement in twoiaf, and counting backwards from Joffrey's nameday). I do my best to keep the wiki's timeline as complete as it can be, so a lot of info can be found there. Should you spot any errors or omissions, let me know!

 

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

At least with Stannis's voyage north we have "magical winds" that carry his ships to Eastwatch. Tyrion is just faster than it makes sense for him to be.

True. Poor Lord Alester...

Quote

The problem with Jon's nameday keeps coming up, but it is a lot clearer if people just think of the day in which he has celebrated his nameday all of his life and when he is actually born as possibly two separate dates. It is clear from the books that Jon's nameday is celebrated after Robb's. How long after is the question, not that it is later than Robb's. They both celebrate namedays that place their birth in Year 283 AC. Confusion sets in when people assume the date Martin speaks of for Jon's birth being tied some "eight or nine months or thereabouts" before Dany's is the same as Jon's celebrated one. Does that place Jon's real nameday before Robb's? I think it likely, but we can't be sure. 

It is possible that Jon was born before Robb, sure, but not necessary. Is there anything that suggests that it is the case? I would expect Ned to have lied as little as possible regarding Jon, as to keep his story as straight as possible, without giving any more information to people than absolutely necessary. Are there any adventages to claiming Jon is, for example, a month younger than he is in truth?

Robb was conceived, according to Catelyn, during her wedding night, and most definitly within the first two weeks of the wedding. They wouldn't see each other for ~a year, so Robb would have been ~3 months old when arriving at Winterfell. When he was born, Eddard still "warred in the south", but all that tells us is that he was not yet on his way back home. The Sack could already have occurred. After all, Eddard rode south after the Sack to fight the "last battles of the war alone in the south".

[Lost Melnibonean]

25 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It had been winter for two years when the false spring began in 281 AC, which ended before the year was done. It was winter again at the turning of the year, but we do not know how long winter lasted beyond that point.

Daenerys having been born during a "summer storm" means no more than that she was born during a storm which occured in the summer. It says nothing about the month of the year. With summer in mid 284 AC, there's plenty of time to have had a real spring in between, even if winter had lasted for a few more months beyond the start of 282 AC.

 

The people who originally created the timeline had to make a choice, correctly place Jon's nameday, or try and display Tyrion's journey south as best as they could. They chose the latter, as it makes the timeline more fluid, but it should be clear that Jon celebrates his nameday after Robb does, otherwise Catelyn could not possibly believe that Jon was conceived after her marriage occurred.

We can place Daenerys's birth rather well. Her dragons were born in early 299 AC. She had given birth to Rhaego not long before - several long days before - and at that time, she had been pregnant for nearly nine months. Her handmaidens noticed her pregnancy on her fourteenth nameday, at which point she would have been pregnant for a month or two, maybe three, at least, placing her birth somewhere in the middle of the year.

This can also be concluded the other way around. We know that Robert died in 298 AC and Eddard in 299 AC. When the Cinnamon Wind arrives in Qarth, Daenerys is informed that "not half a year past", the ship had been at Oldtown. From Oldtown, they called at several more ports before reaching Qarth, including Dorne and Lys.

The information he tells us much. Robert is dead, and Eddard arrested, and neither Renly nor Stannis have claimed the crown yet. So from this I think we can conclude that at least when the ship has sailed from Dorne (which it did even less than "not half a year past", considering they had to sail from Oldtown to whichever Dornish port they stopped at), Renly had not yet crowned himself, which we know he does in 299 AC as well (although his wedding to Margaery might still have occurred in 298 AC, there's no way to tell).

This means that we are at most near in the sixth or seventh month of the year, depending on whether the ship left Oldtown "not half a year past" in either late 298 AC or early 299 AC. At at the time Daenerys speaks with the captain of the ship, her fifteenth nameday has already been.

 

The google doc sheet has had threads accompanying it. Together with @Lost Melnibonean and several others I've been able to fix several errors by discussing on these threads. The first one, created by PrivateMajor, has been closed for length quite a while back. I created a second one so people could continue the discussion, but it has been archived.  If there is any interest, I could create a new one, and any adjustments to the document that are necessary could be discussed there? There are still some things that could be improved.. Davos, for example, now spends a full month on a rock without food and with barely any water, which seems a bit long imo. And while the nameday's of Dany, Jon, Robb and Joffrey should be shown in the timeline, given that they appear on page in the text (for Dany and Joffrey) or are mentioned to have been "a few days past" and "a fortnight past" for Robb and Jon, those are the ones we can place. But the timeline currently shows an exact nameday for Arya, Sansa, Bran and Rickon as well, which I personally would not have chosen to do. I would have given a timewindow in which their namedays occur, instead. Not chosen a specific date, since that is rather impossible without more info.

So some improvements are still necessary. 

 

(I haven't gone over the linked timeline in detail yet, but I did spot one little thing that could use some adjustment. Robert and Cersei marry twice. 284 AC is the correct date, according to both Yandel's statement in twoiaf, and counting backwards from Joffrey's nameday). I do my best to keep the wiki's timeline as complete as it can be, so a lot of info can be found there. Should you spot any errors or omissions, let me know!

 

True. Poor Lord Alester...

It is possible that Jon was born before Robb, sure, but not necessary. Is there anything that suggests that it is the case? I would expect Ned to have lied as little as possible regarding Jon, as to keep his story as straight as possible, without giving any more information to people than absolutely necessary. Are there any adventages to claiming Jon is, for example, a month younger than he is in truth?

Robb was conceived, according to Catelyn, during her wedding night, and most definitly within the first two weeks of the wedding. They wouldn't see each other for ~a year, so Robb would have been ~3 months old when arriving at Winterfell. When he was born, Eddard still "warred in the south", but all that tells us is that he was not yet on his way back home. The Sack could already have occurred. After all, Eddard rode south after the Sack to fight the "last battles of the war alone in the south".

If you do start a new one, would you kindly call it "Most Precise ASOIAF Timeline v3.0"? I always had trouble finding your sequel. 

[SFDanny]

41 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It is possible that Jon was born before Robb, sure, but not necessary. Is there anything that suggests that it is the case? I would expect Ned to have lied as little as possible regarding Jon, as to keep his story as straight as possible, without giving any more information to people than absolutely necessary. Are there any adventages to claiming Jon is, for example, a month younger than he is in truth?

Robb was conceived, according to Catelyn, during her wedding night, and most definitly within the first two weeks of the wedding. They wouldn't see each other for ~a year, so Robb would have been ~3 months old when arriving at Winterfell. When he was born, Eddard still "warred in the south", but all that tells us is that he was not yet on his way back home. The Sack could already have occurred. After all, Eddard rode south after the Sack to fight the "last battles of the war alone in the south".

None, that we haven't covered before. We agree on the timing of Dany's nameday. Which places the Sack in Aug.-Sept. of 283, and Jon's nameday most likely falls from that date to about six weeks later. I guess the four-five weeks later makes the most sense. Meaning Jon is about a week old when Ned arrives at the Tower. All which would place Jon's real nameday in late Sept to early Oct. 283.

When I try to count backwards from the purple wedding to Robb's nameday before his arrival in Riverrun, it looks to be a October to early November date. Note these are all guesses and are in the possible range, so we have some leeway in pushing the date either way. But what I keep coming back to is that it looks like the differences between the namedays Jon and Robb celebrate and what looks to be real is there. Meaning Ned changed the date of Jon's nameday. The only way to change Jon's nameday is to say he was born later than he really was. It makes no sense for Ned to give Cat the story he fathered Jon after he left her pregnant with Robb and to then say his nameday puts his conception before they were married. Nor does it make much sense to give Cat a story that puts Jon's conception a week or two after he leaves her. I keep coming back to a month or two for the difference in celebrated days, and about the same time of the real namedays to Jon being born a little earlier.

The advantage for Ned is real if he changes Jon's nameday. He removes it in time from when he is at the tower of joy and closer to his arrival in Starfall. He also shores up his story to Cat. Not with an absurd story like Jon being conceived on his trip to Starfall, but with one that suggests he met Jon's mother a month or so after he left Cat.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

12 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

But what I keep coming back to is that it looks like the differences between the namedays Jon and Robb celebrate and what looks to be real is there. Meaning Ned changed the date of Jon's nameday.

Could you elaborate on this a bit further? What specifically suggests that Jon is older than he thinks?

 

12 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The only way to change Jon's nameday is to say he was born later than he really was. It makes no sense for Ned to give Cat the story he fathered Jon after he left her pregnant with Robb and to then say his nameday puts his conception before they were married. Nor does it make much sense to give Cat a story that puts Jon's conception a week or two after he leaves her. I keep coming back to a month or two for the difference in celebrated days, and about the same time of the real namedays to Jon being born a little earlier.

I think a month would already be pushing it. Consider that Robb's birthday falls around the time of the Battle of the Blackwater, and Margaery needs time to travel to King's Landing from Highgarden, and be at King's Landing for a short time before Sansa's wedding, after which we still have at least a month left in 299 AC, and likely more, considering it was possible to have Robb's head be brought to KL in time for Joffreys wedding on the first day of 300 AC, according to Joffrey

 

[Philokles]

6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It had been winter for two years when the false spring began in 281 AC, which ended before the year was done. It was winter again at the turning of the year, but we do not know how long winter lasted beyond that point.

Daenerys having been born during a "summer storm" means no more than that she was born during a storm which occured in the summer. It says nothing about the month of the year. With summer in mid 284 AC, there's plenty of time to have had a real spring in between, even if winter had lasted for a few more months beyond the start of 282 AC.

I completely agree.

[Lord Wraith]

On 2/10/2017 at 7:26 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Lots of things are possible as long as you can explain that blue flower growing from a chink in the wall of ice. But I prefer to keep my larger pots on the shelf in orderly fashion so they don't fall and crack. 

Tyrion and Marwyn don't trust prophecy and nor do I. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

25 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Tyrion and Marwyn don't trust prophecy and nor do I. 

The blue flower growing from a chink in a wall of ice wasn't a prophecy. 

 

[Lord Wraith]

5 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The blue flower growing from a chink in a wall of ice wasn't a prophecy. 

 

My apologizes, I don't trust visions either. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Wraith said:

My apologizes, I don't trust visions either. 

But it has to mean something, so what's your alternative explanation? 

[maudisdottir]

13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But it has to mean something, so what's your alternative explanation? 

Prophecies don't mean anything, dreams don't mean anything, visions don't mean anything.

Which is why there are so freaking many of them throughout the books. Because they don't mean anything, obviously.

[Lord Wraith]

On 2/12/2017 at 4:57 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

But it has to mean something, so what's your alternative explanation? 

Don't have one since I never cared that much about the mystical side of things. Besides we already know some of the HoTU visions are false a la Rhaego. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

43 minutes ago, Lord Wraith said:

Don't have one since I never cared that much about the mystical side of things. Besides we already know some of the HoTU visions are false a la Rhaego. 

That's one, but it's not false since Rhaego is already dead. It's a vision of what could have been.