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Why Daenery's will not win the game of thrones


MGraham

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Would welcome peoples speculation on this.

My main thoughts on this is that we already know that Daenery's is barren and that she knows/thinks she is barren. So if she win's the Iron throne, chances are her line dies with her. If she marries Aegon and house Targaryen dies (unless he re-marries) If her and Jon get together in fans dream scenario, they will have no heir. She won't want that.

History shows us that kingdoms without heirs tend to be unstable.

Also in the 5 books written so far she has accomplished a lot, but she would now only have 2 books to subdue Meereen (it seem's out of character that she would abandon it unless certain pirates force her to) travels to Westeros and defeats her enemies in the time that we have left. Not to mention fights the WW.

Ending slavery seems a worthy accomplishment for 1 lifetime. Aegon will fulfill the role GRRM originally envisaged for Daeny, which is why he only appeared so late. This probally won't be the case for the TV show who will likely blend the roles.

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Just now, Knute said:

Do we necessarily know for sure that she's barren though? Perhaps she believes she is but it's in no way 100% certain that she is.

Well we may not know it 100% but my guess is the story may end without us knowing...

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1 minute ago, MGraham said:

Well we may not know it 100% but my guess is the story may end without us knowing...

I still believe Jon will sit the Iron throne. But this whole post hangs on the basis that she is barren, which certainly isn't really confirmed and doesn't really come from the most reliable source, I mean we haven't even seen what MM could do before she gave that riddle.

Also fAegon will end up dying in one way or another IMO.

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13 minutes ago, Knute said:

I still believe Jon will sit the Iron throne. But this whole post hangs on the basis that she is barren, which certainly isn't really confirmed and doesn't really come from the most reliable source, I mean we haven't even seen what MM could do before she gave that riddle.

Also fAegon will end up dying in one way or another IMO.

2 books to go. I can see Jon becoming the dominant force in the north during that time. I can see him fighting the WW and holding their power in check.

In the time we have left i can't see him subduing the Vale, Riverlands, Westerlands, Kings Landing, Storm Lands, Dorne and the Reach. The vale, maybe? Riverlands probably, but the others? If he defeats the Boltons and in effect becomes ruler of the north, he could move south to press a claim but he would have left the WW at his rear. He would have the Lannisters and the Reach against him at least. Aegon and his forces would also be against him.

We would need a compromise peace to put Jon on the throne, Dorne and the Reach are clearly playing their own game, Lannisters and Starks can likely never be reconciled and the Stormlands will likely be in control of Aegon at the start of WOW. Littlefinger wants Sansa in the North so the Vale would be against him (unless Littlefinger adapts which is possible)

Even as de-facto King of the North, which of these other factions would support Jon as king? Even if R+L = J how would he convince the whole realm of it and would they care? Would Jon want to be king? even if he does would he be ruthless enough to take it.

Aegon (legitimate or not) has a chance. He has the Golden company. He will have captured some/all of the storm lands. It's possible that he can bring Dorne or the Reach to his side, possibly with marriage packs. With one or both of these he could likely oust the Lannisters. At this point, Littlefinger may well start making offers to join him (unless Vary's prevents this) and likely the Riverlands would not want or be able to object.

Aegon has no objection to Jon, he could make a deal with him making him (or Rickon) Warden of the North to placate them he could even name him king of the north but still subservient to the Iron Throne. On the other hand, Jon could not offer Aegon anything to make him support Jon as king.

If Aegon (or any other contender) where to kill the Lannisters and offer to pardon the Northerners for any crimes and help against the WW, would Jon turn this down to press his own claim to the Throne? I think not.

Replace Aegon with Daenery's if you wish, the arguments are still the same (except she could marry Jon)

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Sorry i've got my mind churning thinking about the same logic with the other candidates.

I am assuming that Tommen (or any of the Lannisters) can never be reconciled with the Starks so they would always have to subdue the north by force. Nothing Tommen can offer Aegon would conduce him to make peace without giving up the throne. He has the reach whilst Marg is his queen but both of them have to deal with the FO7. The riverlands don't factor for Tommen as they are largely in Lannister control (whilst the others would have to take it from them)

The Vale could deal with Tommen, he agree's with Littlefinger that Sansa and Harry take the north, making Jon/WW/Boltons have to be dealt with by them. If Tommen is winning, i am guessing Dorne stays neutral (unless they have already thrown in with Aegon) but if Tommen kills Aegon, would Dorne continue to fight?

In my assessment Tommen is doomed. Marg is condemned by the faith and the Tyrells become undependable. Even with her, they could conceivable side with Aegon anyway (or their followers in the Reach may support him as suggested by the Golden Company)

He can only count on the Lannisters and their power is spent?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Frankly speaking, regardless of the show, I sincerely doubt that Cersei and any of her children will survive till the end. 

At this point, I suspect that by the time Dany gets to Westeros/Red Keep - Lannisters would be dead and out of power - so count them out.

Technically, if Dany is not barren and Targs wouldn't be so obsessed with blood purity and marrying each other, plus if Aegon and Jon Snow both confirmed to be legitimate, all of them could marry to different families to reunite Westeros. Marriage to Arianne would seal Dorne, Jon's relations to Sansa and Rickon could help with Vale/Riverlands and North, Westlands - Lannisters would be spent and if Tyrion could somehow claim the Casterly Rock, not sure what to do about the Reach and Tyrells, marrying Margaery for 4th time is an absurdity and sick joke and people would probably consider her a Black Widow at this point. Iron Islands - Theon - Asha, chastined by Starks and the North?

Alternately, if Dany would turn full on Aegon the Conqueror and blood & fire mode, she could re-conquer Westeros without any marriage pacts, short of Dorne. Aegon I took just couple of months to conquer Westeros with 3 dragons, didn't he?

 

 

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I think there's too much foreshadowing for her and Tyrion taking a darker path. Her story is conveyed as a melancholic one from the very beginning, with the repeated nostalgic memories of the House with the Red Door repeated over and over. I don't see this story ending well for her, but I'm like that will a lot of characters.

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If she is barren, that will be a huge issue cause if Dany manage to get IT and she die without a heir, this will be the game of thrones all over again. But if she isn't, i still don't see her having children cause i don't think her being un-barren is going to contribute much to the plot with the ending going to be bittersweet.

Not to mention, her allies are considered to be  immortal by Westeros standard. Her ally is (and will be) consist of the Unsuilled (remember how the Brave Companions were full of Essoi people and they went ravage parts of Westeros), Tyrion (having a Kingslayer in your army won't make the country bend to the new king), the Dothraki (their culture rape and pillage will be the usage to conquer Westeros), and the Ironborn (the sea version of the Dothraki and they were the most hated in Westeros). So, realistically without taming her parts of her allies, Dany won't be like in Westeros. Plus her being the daughter of Mad King Aerys didn't help either.

But one of the biggest reason why i don't think she will win is because, to me, she's more of a deconstruction of the exile hero. Dany is like your typical exile hero: she belong to the greatest house/family, her house has fallen, she went into exile, and she swore to bring back the throne from the "evil" usurper with the help of magical creatures. However, the biggest problem lies here: she actually doesn't know much about Westeros nor her family. Dany and Viserys went in exile when they were very young and grew up places to places in Essos. Dany is more of a Essoi person than Westerosi since she's familer with more of the Essos region than in Westeros. Yes, she has Viserys to tell her all about the Targaryens and Westeors, but we all know Viserys is the most unreliable person to tell the tales and him bent the truth to Dany made a huge impact on her character. Dany believing that the Targaryens were true victims of the rebellion and the usurper and his dogs were evil people cause her to have this sense of black and white morality. To the current story, Dany still believes that Westeros is waiting for the Targ to come back and save the day, which in reality, of course nobody is expecting the Targs to come back. It doesn't help that Jorah and Barristain were also the unreliable people - Jorah being infatuated with her and Barristain being a Targ loyalist (i gave him credit that he did try to correct Dany about the rebellion). Essentially Dany doesn't know much about the Westeros culture nor the truth about her father. So realistically, Dany is going to land in Westeors and say, "I am the breaker of chain and i will free all of you," chances are that the people are going to think wtf since Dany is unfamiliar with Westeros banned slavery a centuries ago. 

On 3/14/2016 at 5:12 AM, Winterbowl said:

I think there's too much foreshadowing for her and Tyrion taking a darker path. Her story is conveyed as a melancholic one from the very beginning, with the repeated nostalgic memories of the House with the Red Door repeated over and over. I don't see this story ending well for her, but I'm like that will a lot of characters.

Also this. Dany looks like she's going for a darker path if it means taking what is hers. Again like i said, she will have the Dothraki and the Ironborn on her said and she won't gets lots of love when the Dothraki and Ironborn rape and pillage Westeros. Plus, her idealism will be the fatal flaw of her character. Really fits with the Targaryen motto in context, "Fire and Blood" and she will bring that to Westeros.

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Daenerys does have some problems in the East but unless she actually dies at this point of the books she is still a in better situation than anyone in Westeros. And it doesn't seem likely for her to die now. To me it was always obvious that Martin created her as the character he favors. I think that ASOIAF is, in a way, a version of classical epic story of conflict between good and evil. It is provocative and doesn't mind any political correctness but in the end it will come to the same end - the good ones win (well, in this case the few of them who survived up to that time and not without some bitterness, such as Daenerys' revenge on those in whose case it's not so clear that they deserve it). I have a feeling that after al  it will be similar to an episode of American Dad! in which we always have cruelty and lack of conscience among the characters but we nevertheless get a moral at the end. In Westeros it'll be something similar with Daenerys bringing Targaryens back to former glory and settling things right or at least as right as they can be. If it turns out to be otherwise, I'll be pleasantly surprised because I don't like her (the most annoying character ever :D) although I don't find it very probable.

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I do not believe Daenerys will bring the Targaryens back to former glory. If anything I believe that the only way she can win, or even survive, is to *reject* her heritage rather than embrace it. So far she has brought ruin to everything she has ever touched, whether deliberately or not.

Dragons do not build.

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Quote

Dragons do not build.

Youre right, they conquer.

 

I think we are led on to believe that Daenerys wont bare anymore children because of GRRM wants to add another cool twist later on, let me explain...

The main reason Daenerys believes she is baren, and i think why readers/viewers think that also; 

       Mirri Maz Duur (Maegi): "When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then he will return, and not before.”

This is referring to when Daenerys will see Khal Drogo (her sun and stars) again, not a child. Yes, within her curse/prophecy the maegi claims that Daenerys is baren, however that curse is slowly being overturn/fulfill...

       "When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east" :  Quentyn Martell (House Martell of Sunspear) was born in the west, Dorne, and died in the East, Mereen; the sun and spear is his sigil.

        "When the seas go dry" : Daenerys is currently lost in the Dothraki sea, a sea of grass and dirt, hardly wet, very dry.

        "mountains blow in the wind like leaves" : Not too sure on this one. Could be Ser Gregor Clegane(the Mountain), who is now Robert Strong apart of the king's guard with cape to go with it, and capes blow in the wind. Alternatively the pyramids of Mereen being destroyed by the dragons, who nest in them.

        "and you bear a living child." : in one of the last scenes, we see Daenerys has blood coming down her leg, which could possibly be a moon blood / her womb quickening again.

 

I also think that Daenerys is the Prince(ss) that was Promised and/or Azor Ahhai , she just fits the prophecy for that so well.

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On ‎2‎-‎3‎-‎2016 at 1:04 AM, MGraham said:

In the time we have left i can't see him subduing the Vale, Riverlands, Westerlands, Kings Landing, Storm Lands, Dorne and the Reach. The vale, maybe? Riverlands probably, but the others? If he defeats the Boltons and in effect becomes ruler of the north, he could move south to press a claim but he would have left the WW at his rear. He would have the Lannisters and the Reach against him at least. Aegon and his forces would also be against him.

He won't need to subdue all the other kingdoms for a very simple reason: The North will be lost to the White Walkers.
Dany has a dream that she is fighting an army armored in ice (source):

That night she dreamt that she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurper's rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent. Some small part of her knew that she was dreaming, but another part exulted.

To me, that says that the North will be lost and the White Walkers will reach the Trident, where a/the final major battle for Westeros will take place (referencing the Robert vs. Rhaegar battle at the Trident).
This means that Jon needs to realize that the North will be lost and try to save as many people as he can, while in the meantime trying to muster as many forces as possible to fight the WW's. When hooking up with Dany (riding a dragon) the Trident appears to be the best stronghold to fight of the WW invasion.

If he shows good leadership by saving as many northernmen as possible, good tactical vision by fighting the WW at the proper place, and decent policital skills to have all other kingdoms join the fight, he just might be the charismatic, intelligent, smart and unwilling new king of Westeros.

No need to subdue all the other kingdoms, once they see their new leader saving them all.

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Danny will not win the Iron Throne because she will not leave Slaver's Bay as a conqueror. Aegon taking KL will cowtail her passion for restoring Targ glory, and she will have the excuse she's been searching for to stay behind and rule/reform that part of Essos.

She'll have a 'home is where the heart is' coming to jesus moment and realize she's been obsessed with winning a continent she's never known.

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2 hours ago, shadows and dust said:

Danny will not win the Iron Throne because she will not leave Slaver's Bay as a conqueror. Aegon taking KL will cowtail her passion for restoring Targ glory, and she will have the excuse she's been searching for to stay behind and rule/reform that part of Essos.

She'll have a 'home is where the heart is' coming to jesus moment and realize she's been obsessed with winning a continent she's never known.

This is something i can agree with. When GRRM originally wrote his premise for the book series, he talked about her returning home to reclaim the throne. But this was before she got so bogged down in Essos. I think he's then retrospectively added Aegon to fulfill this role whilst Dany stays in Essos.

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7 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

He won't need to subdue all the other kingdoms for a very simple reason: The North will be lost to the White Walkers.
Dany has a dream that she is fighting an army armored in ice (source):

 

To me, that says that the North will be lost and the White Walkers will reach the Trident, where a/the final major battle for Westeros will take place (referencing the Robert vs. Rhaegar battle at the Trident).
This means that Jon needs to realize that the North will be lost and try to save as many people as he can, while in the meantime trying to muster as many forces as possible to fight the WW's. When hooking up with Dany (riding a dragon) the Trident appears to be the best stronghold to fight of the WW invasion.

If he shows good leadership by saving as many northernmen as possible, good tactical vision by fighting the WW at the proper place, and decent policital skills to have all other kingdoms join the fight, he just might be the charismatic, intelligent, smart and unwilling new king of Westeros.

No need to subdue all the other kingdoms, once they see their new leader saving them all.

I fear your in fantasy land.... even more so than someone reading fantasy novels...

Is the Lannister army in the riverlands just going to let all these Northerners come south? They don't even know about the WW yet.

The Golden Company, Dorne, The Vale, The Tyrells are all just going to bow down to Daeny on a Dragon? Or even more unlikely, is Daeny going to abandon her "children" in slavers bay to land in Westeros with an army? We are 5 books into a 7 book series. We don't have that much time left!

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