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Battle of Ice army numbers


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Roose is in the Winterfell with the majority of his northern forces. Well provisioned and 80-foot walls. I think he is holding "hostages" from the Northern Houses in order to ensure loyalty.

Things got heated in Winterfell. So Roose sent out some of the unruly forces to let off some steam (cannon fodder).

1.) 3000 Freys

2.) 300 Manderleys

3.) ??? under Ramsay (he's the enforcer, he will kill all retreaters)

All three of these groups are headed out separately. Not sure if Freys are first or Manderleys are first... the order is actually very important.

Unlikely Roose will let the Manderleys and Freys take more than 1 week of provisions. Remember he regards them as cannon fodder (not a free supply depot for Stannis)!

 

On Stannis's side:

1.) ??? weak, starving, poorly dressed, Southern troops

2.) ??? stronger, better fed, appropriately attired, Northern troops

3.) barely any horses left (most have been eaten)... also a bit of cannabalism 

4.) a frozen lake with an island in the middle

 

In actuality, Stannis's worse enemy has been the Northern Winter. If he can't even handle the snowstorms, good luck when he meets the Others. 

 

 

 

 

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There cant be 3000 Freys. They had 4k in GoT, some of them died and a lot of them had to sray in Riverlands to ensure peace. Not to mention those besieging Riverrun. 2k most, probably between 1.5k and 2k.

300 Manderlys

around 4k others. There are Umbers of uncertain loyalty, they have at least 500 men. So now you have 3.5-4k Boltons, Dustins and Ryswells. Ramsay probably took no more than 500 men with him because why would he?

Stannis has between 1.3 and 1.5k his own men, 2.5k clansmen and couple of hundreds of Glovers and other soldiers. Oh and Karstarks.

I am convinced he wins this battle, this is just not realistic for him to lose from

lord Too fat to sit on a horse, ser Stupid and bastard of Dreadfort

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9 hours ago, DigUpHerBones said:

Does everyone forget about Justin Massey and what he is currently up to?

he could be bringing back 10-20k sellswords...

Sure in half a year :) that has nothing to do with this battle and maybe not even the next one.

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19 hours ago, DigUpHerBones said:

Does everyone forget about Justin Massey and what he is currently up to?

he could be bringing back 10-20k sellswords...

700? miles to Caste Black

Then onto Eastwatch

Then across to Bravoos where he secures the funds

Searches for a sellsword company

May have to travel to one of the free cities to negotiate contracts/terms

Sail back to Eastwatch, maybe head to Castle Black

700 miles to Winterfell with a full army of sellswords.

 

Thats going to take a LONG time. I wonder if they will actually be part of the story or will it be something like Edric Storm where his part in the story is over(assuming). 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/03/2016 at 1:17 AM, MorgulisMaximus said:

Roose is in the Winterfell with the majority of his northern forces. Well provisioned and 80-foot walls. I think he is holding "hostages" from the Northern Houses in order to ensure loyalty.

Things got heated in Winterfell. So Roose sent out some of the unruly forces to let off some steam (cannon fodder).

1.) 3000 Freys

1,500 hundred

...four hundred mounted Freys clad in blue and grey, their spearpoints glittering whenever the sun broke through the clouds. Two of old Lord Walder's sons led the van.

...And at the rear, more Freys. At least a thousand, maybe more: bowmen, spearmen, peasants armed with scythes and sharpened sticks, freeriders and mounted archers, and another hundred knights to stiffen them.

 

On 15/03/2016 at 10:54 AM, dariopatke said:

There cant be 3000 Freys. They had 4k in GoT, some of them died and a lot of them had to sray in Riverlands to ensure peace.

You are right, there is not but there could have been. Rich houses like the Manderlys and Freys would be the ones who would be able to take advantage of the population displacement in the North and Riverlands being able to hire new peasants and sellswords to their ranks. The Twins especially as the Red Wedding would have greatly increased their weapon stores.

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4 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Rich houses like the Manderlys and Freys would be the ones who would be able to take advantage of the population displacement in the North and Riverlands being able to hire new peasants and sellswords to their ranks. The Twins especially as the Red Wedding would have greatly increased their weapon stores.

Do you think it possible that Manderly has brought up his own reinforcements and is keeping them hidden? I noticed that the White Knife River covers most of the distance between White Harbor and Winterfell. Ordinarily, it would be extraordinarily difficult to "sail" up river. But seeing that the uppermost parts of the river are likely frozen over, the flow of the river will be greatly diminished. Hence, it might indeed be possible to sail an entire well-equipped and well-provisioned army up river at  reasonable speeds. Seems like something GRRM might consider...

 

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1 hour ago, MorgulisMaximus said:

Do you think it possible that Manderly has brought up his own reinforcements and is keeping them hidden? I noticed that the White Knife River covers most of the distance between White Harbor and Winterfell. Ordinarily, it would be extraordinarily difficult to "sail" up river. But seeing that the uppermost parts of the river are likely frozen over, the flow of the river will be greatly diminished. Hence, it might indeed be possible to sail an entire well-equipped and well-provisioned army up river at  reasonable speeds. Seems like something GRRM might consider...

 

Not impossible.

Manderly has 300 with him. He lost 1,500 with Robb. He would have lost another 100-200 at the Battle of Winterfell and an unknown amount in the battle for Hornwood (i'd say less than a 100). He would also need to leave a sizable Garrison at his capital of 500-1k.

I'd say that leaves (at least) 1,000 still unaccounted for.

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Wyman Manderly has a host with Glover set to lead them. Also Rickon on Skagos, may, just may be able to bring Skagosi men as they were Northern subjects under the Starks but may hate the Boltons. Also, Manderly has a huge amount of Ships kidden up the White Knife to transport them if and when Davos, Osha, Rickon and Shaggy Dog come back. This may increase by a few Thousand and they are cannibals. Frey Pies anybody?

Also, Wyman was so provocative towards the Freys on the morning when they leave for battle after the altercation, it was like he received word that Davos was successful and since his heir is in White Harbor, he was sacraficing himself to get the ball rolling and has his host, led by Glover with Rickon and Shaggy Dog approaching Winterfell. If those other Northern Lords see Rickon with the Direwolf, hostages at the Twins or not, they will fight for house Stark.

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3 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Wyman Manderly has a host with Glover set to lead them. Also Rickon on Skagos, may, just may be able to bring Skagosi men as they were Northern subjects under the Starks but may hate the Boltons. Also, Manderly has a huge amount of Ships kidden up the White Knife to transport them if and when Davos, Osha, Rickon and Shaggy Dog come back. This may increase by a few Thousand and they are cannibals. Frey Pies anybody?

Also, Wyman was so provocative towards the Freys on the morning when they leave for battle after the altercation, it was like he received word that Davos was successful and since his heir is in White Harbor, he was sacraficing himself to get the ball rolling and has his host, led by Glover with Rickon and Shaggy Dog approaching Winterfell. If those other Northern Lords see Rickon with the Direwolf, hostages at the Twins or not, they will fight for house Stark.

I have thought something like this for a time. The numbers are perhaps irrelevant, because I think the sides will realign. Much like the Battle of Northampton (1460) and others, I can see several men switching sides, especially if a Stark is present or word arrives that a Stark(s) lives. 

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9 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

I have thought something like this for a time. The numbers are perhaps irrelevant, because I think the sides will realign. Much like the Battle of Northampton (1460) and others, I can see several men switching sides, especially if a Stark is present or word arrives that a Stark(s) lives. 

Lady Barbrey to Theon/Reek. The North fears the Dreadfort (Boltons) but loves the Starks and I think she does too. Regardless if she hated Ned, I do not think she hates Brandon, her brandon's namesake /love of her life. Nor his little brother Rickon.

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10 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Lady Barbrey to Theon/Reek. The North fears the Dreadfort (Boltons) but loves the Starks and I think she does too. Regardless if she hated Ned, I do not think she hates Brandon, her brandon's namesake /love of her life. Nor his little brother Rickon.

Exactly. I think one of the interesting aspects of Bolton's move was his lack of foresight. He failed (imo) to consider the extent to which loyalty shaped the north. We have seen many jump ship for money and power, but the north seems genuinely tied through blood and loyalty. It would be fitting for all of Roose's efforts to crumble before his eyes because the men/women in the north remained loyal to the Starks. 

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9 minutes ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Exactly. I think one of the interesting aspects of Bolton's move was his lack of foresight. He failed (imo) to consider the extent to which loyalty shaped the north. We have seen many jump ship for money and power, but the north seems genuinely tied through blood and loyalty. It would be fitting for all of Roose's efforts to crumble before his eyes because the men/women in the north remained loyal to the Starks. 

The hostages at the twins and the northmen, or atleast some of them not having a Stark to rally around is the only reasons keeping them from slaughtering the Boltons and Freys to pieces. Roose knows this as he knows that Bran and Rickon are alive somewhere. Fake Arya is there to wed the Boltons so they then can get a kid or two off of her for future consideration if they can survive the next 10-20 years of their betrayal of house Stark. Roose knows they are in a dangerous situation. Ramsay does not. Ramsay is wreckless and stupid and it is a concern for Roose. Roose is scared. Theon/Reek knows it.

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1 hour ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Lady Barbrey to Theon/Reek. The North fears the Dreadfort (Boltons) but loves the Starks and I think she does too. Regardless if she hated Ned, I do not think she hates Brandon, her brandon's namesake /love of her life. Nor his little brother Rickon.

The Dustins don't love the Starks, it is pretty clear that not only did Lady Dustin (and the Ryswells) send as few men with Robb as she could

"… rode south with Robb Stark, fought beside him at the Whispering Wood and Riverrun, returned to the Iron Islands as his envoy to treat with your own father. Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell."

But she (and the Ryswells) also ignored the calls of help when Winterfell needed help

The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood.

Now while men from the further away Manderly, Flint and Karstark lands there was no help from the Dustins and Ryswells.

 

GRRM has given a clear indication why Lady Dustin will turn on the Boltons and it has nothing to do with a love of the Starks but hating Ramsay. The prospect of him one day ruling will force her (and the Ryswells) to abandon the good ship Bolton.

 

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