Battle of Ice army numbers

[A Ghost of Someone]

10 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

The Dustins don't love the Starks, it is pretty clear that not only did Lady Dustin (and the Ryswells) send as few men with Robb as she could

"… rode south with Robb Stark, fought beside him at the Whispering Wood and Riverrun, returned to the Iron Islands as his envoy to treat with your own father. Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell."

But she (and the Ryswells) also ignored the calls of help when Winterfell needed help

The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood.

Now while men from the further away Manderly, Flint and Karstark lands there was no help from the Dustins and Ryswells.

 

GRRM has given a clear indication why Lady Dustin will turn on the Boltons and it has nothing to do with a love of the Starks but hating Ramsay. The prospect of him one day ruling will force her (and the Ryswells) to abandon the good ship Bolton.

 

She is also been in good staning with Roose, her former brother in law and I think she probably knew, what Lady Hornwood told Bran and Maester Luwin, that the Bastard of Bolton was amassing troops at the Dreadfort. She does not trust Ramsay and Roose, she knows about as good as anyone. When she touched Brandon's statue in the Crypt, it was all I needed to know that when push comes to shove, she will side with the Brandon's family over the Boltons.

[bemused]

14 hours ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

I have thought something like this for a time. The numbers are perhaps irrelevant, because I think the sides will realign. Much like the Battle of Northampton (1460) and others, I can see several men switching sides, especially if a Stark is present or word arrives that a Stark(s) lives. 

 

14 hours ago, JonisHenryTudor said:

Exactly. I think one of the interesting aspects of Bolton's move was his lack of foresight. He failed (imo) to consider the extent to which loyalty shaped the north. We have seen many jump ship for money and power, but the north seems genuinely tied through blood and loyalty. It would be fitting for all of Roose's efforts to crumble before his eyes because the men/women in the north remained loyal to the Starks. 

I agree with this.

Roose will not have the support of any northmen other than Bolton men. He has the Freys, and that is all. To judge from the Theon TWoW chapter ... even the Karstark men are likely to turn in favour of Stannis. As Stannis points out, the men at arms are probably not aware of Arnolf's planned treachery. The men at arms thought they would be fighting on Stannis' side and with Arnolf's plot being revealed, they will either fight for Stannis, or be held prisoner, or killed anyway. 
In any case, the Karstarks will be either nullified, or added to Stannis' strength.

We can see some very probable foreshadowing  back in ACoK, when Theon tells Asha..  And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines... this was done to help Ser Rodrik defend Torrhen's square, etc.

I think this has happened again, off-page, with a slightly different complement of forces/supplies.. I'd guess, men (under the leadership of Robbett Glover), lots of foodstuff, and possibly some livestock as well as horses.... Unlike some, I don't think these men are shivering out in the woods somewhere, waiting to act. A perfect first staging area exists in Castle Cerwyn, situated between the White Knife and Winterfell. Jonelle Cerwyn was present in Barrowton, but not at WF.... Because the WF crypts are "vast" , I suspect there is second staging area under WF, at least large enough for the fighters.

However,at this point,  my personal predictions may diverge from that of others here. (I was led to these conclusions by many clues which I won't enumerate here (too lengthy). I've laid them out in many other places.) My predictions are ..

That Benjen is present in WF as the Hooded Man, and has rediscovered the secret passage leading to/from the lower levels of the crypts (which operates much the same as the Black Gate).

Robbett and his men are not intended for the relief of Stannis, but to enter WF and overthrow Roose from within.

As predicted by Theon, Roose will send Ramsay out to try to recapture "Arya", if nothing else.

Consequently, with the Freys' , Manderly's and Ramsay's forces absent, Roose's numerical advantage over the other northmen inside WF will be greatly reduced ... Even the miscellaneous northmen who returned with him will turn (as noted above, especially if a Stark is present). ... I could see Benjen emerging from the crypts with Robbett's men having a similar effect to "Renly's ghost" at the Blackwater...

Even in their sorry condition, Stannis and his forces have a good chance of winning their battle. That said, his own men are outnumbered by his allies , and his allies have no interest in seeing Stannis have the right to dispose of WF as he wishes. That is not to say they will turn on him in the field, but I think at least some of their leaders would know of the Benjen/Manderly/Glover mission. Yes, they are there to aid Stannis as the enemy of their enemy, but, e.g. - the clans know that Bran and Rickon are alive, and so does Manderly. They don't know what Stannis would do with the information.. would he insist on naming one of his own men as Rickon's guardian? From the North's point of view, this would only be marginally better than the current situation.

My bet is, Manderly could have retrieved Rickon whenever he wanted, but didn't want to put him at risk, unnecessarily. He had to keep Davos from giving the news to Stannis too soon.(Hence Davos' mission.) He doesn't want to alienate Stannis (the north doesn't want to have to fight him as well, if it can be avoided), but he wants to give their own plans re: WF a chance to work first.

13 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

The Dustins don't love the Starks, it is pretty clear that not only did Lady Dustin (and the Ryswells) send as few men with Robb as she could

"… rode south with Robb Stark, fought beside him at the Whispering Wood and Riverrun, returned to the Iron Islands as his envoy to treat with your own father. Barrowton sent men with the Young Wolf as well. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell."

But she (and the Ryswells) also ignored the calls of help when Winterfell needed help

The rest had left eight days past, six hundred men from Winterfell and the nearest holdfasts. Cley Cerwyn was bringing three hundred more to join them on the march, and Maester Luwin had sent ravens before them, summoning levies from White Harbor and the barrowlands and even the deep places inside the wolfswood.

Now while men from the further away Manderly, Flint and Karstark lands there was no help from the Dustins and Ryswells.

GRRM has given a clear indication why Lady Dustin will turn on the Boltons and it has nothing to do with a love of the Starks but hating Ramsay. The prospect of him one day ruling will force her (and the Ryswells) to abandon the good ship Bolton.

 

As for Lady Dustin, nothing she says can be taken at face value. There may be some truth in some of the things she says, other things will be complete fabrication. Everything she says to Theon is calculated to back up the story she has given to Roose. (FWIW, I don't even think Brandon was her lover.. I think he was Bethany's lover, and Domeric was his bastard.) ... In any case, a high-born woman like Barbrey would never share such intimate details of her love life with Theon, and her supposed hatred for Starks is a complete lie (IMO). ... She's playing the same game Roose plays when he tells certain things to Theon ... expecting that Ramsay would question Theon, and would be told only what Roose wants him to hear (except those things Roose knows Theon would be too afraid to tell him, such as - Ramsay's men are actually Roose's) ...In Barbrey's case, she knows Theon could be questioned by Ramsay or Roose. She knows Roose doesn't trust the other northmen. She's trying to preserve his trust for her.

When she tells Theon.. I gave him as few men as I dared, but I knew that I must needs give him some or risk the wroth of Winterfell ... that's intended to reassure Roose.
But we know.. Gregor Clegane was always ill news, Catelyn reflected. Would Robb need to march south again to deal with him? Or was the Mountain coming here? "Is Clegane across the river, then?"
"No." Bolton's voice was soft, but certain. "I left six hundred men at the ford. Spearmen from the rills, the mountains, and the White Knife, a hundred Hornwood longbows, some freeriders and hedge knights, and a strong force of Stout and Cerwyn men to stiffen them. Ronnel Stout and Ser Kyle Condon have the command. Ser Kyle was the late Lord Cerwyn's right hand, as I'm sure you know; my lady. Lions swim no better than wolves. So long as the river runs high, Ser Gregor will not cross."  (ASoS)
 Sure ... Roose lies about Robbett Glover, and his own "grievous losses" at the Green fork didn't include many Bolton men. Why should we give him the benefit of the doubt, here ? ... We don't know where Ser Kyle or Ser Ronnel are ... and House Stout is sworn to house Dustin. Those are Dustin men ... If they came back north with Roose, you'd think they might have been mentioned, especially Ser Kyle and Ser Ronnel, since they've already been named.

And at Theon's interrogation in WF... Lady Dustin: "...Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf.”
“House Ryswell too,” said Roger Ryswell. “Even Dustins out of Barrowton.” Lady Dustin parted her lips in a thin, feral smile. “The north remembers, Frey.” ... tells us they also had men at the Red wedding. 

We can't be sure that Barbrey and the Ryswells didn't send some men to Luwin's summons in ACoK ... If Cley Cerwyn joined Rodrik en route, why shouldn't they? Luwin sent ravens ahead  ... Rodrik was on his way to defend Torrhen's square. They weren't being summoned to defend WF.  If they didn't respond, they were probably seeing to their own defenses. Victarion was sailing up the Saltspear and the Fever River, past, first, the Rills, and then the "barrowlands" to take Moat Cailin..and "the deep places inside the wolfswood" probably refers to Deepwood Motte, which was being assailed by Asha.

Their absence would have nothing to do with lack of loyalty to the Starks, only self protection.

[Boyan]

Stannis started with 5000+ at Deepwood Motte  but now  after the winter storm he should have around 5000.

-3000 mountain clans

-1300 southerners

-700  Glovers, smallfolk from the Stoney Shore and Wolfswood,survivors from Rodrik Cassels army 

One his side are also 450 Karstarks and 400 Umbers under the comand of Mors Umber.Roose has 3500 Boltens under his comand and 600 under Ramsey's.In Winterfell there also:

-400 Umbers under the comand of Whoresbane

-500 miscellaneous soldiers that came back with Roose

-300 Manderlies 

-1400 Greys

-200-300 escorts split up between the different lords that came for the wedding

Roose send ONLY the Freys and the Manderlies.Stannis almost certainly will rek the Freys using the Nigthlamp theory and then send Wyman with Lightbringer to the Boltens.There he will open the gates at nigth so  Stannis can come and kill the Boltens.