Heresy 183

[Matthew.]

7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

...attributing the creation of white walkers yo "the Wildlings" really doesn't work. 

This is, at best, only true of Mance's group. There are too many inconsistencies in terms of who is being attacked (eg, the group at Hardhome, Tormund's son) for it to be reasonable to assume that Mance and his cohorts are masterminding the attacks; on the other hand, that doesn't mean there aren't humans beyond the Wall with a different set of motives, humans that have no qualms about raiding and destroying their neighbors, and using them as fodder for the wight army.

There is a reasonable context for several intelligent species north of the Wall to have legitimate grievances; the CotF, the giants, and the speculative "True Others" have all lost land, and the humans seem to have found themselves reduced to the status of outcasts and second-class citizens, locked into harsh lands by a Wall 'built of blood.'

Nonetheless...

 

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

 Long story short, it may not make any difference who is behind the white walkers...

To me, the biggest reason that this question might matter is not only does it get to the issue of motive, it may also get to the issue of timing. If this is some sort of punishment or conquest from the Wildlings, or the CotF, or the Night's King... why now? I guess the cynical answer would be "because this is the time period where GRRM has set his story," but that's not terribly satisfying, at least to me.

As a parallel, we actually have a lot of insight into the Fire side of the threat. Dany's magic is old, but her cause is fresh; she's not coming in the name of Fire, in the name of Old Valyria, or in the name of R'hllor. Heck, she's not even really trying to be the second coming of Aegon the Conqueror. Instead, her cause is deeply personal, and rooted in recent history; ultimately, I suspect that we'll discover that the same is true of what's happening north of the Wall, and that this is all intimately tied to the personal journeys of our characters, rather than 8,000 year old chickens finally coming home to roost. We do not yet know all that there is to know about Harrenhal, and Robert's Rebellion.

[Melifeather]

30 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

This is, at best, only true of Mance's group. There are too many inconsistencies in terms of who is being attacked (eg, the group at Hardhome, Tormund's son) for it to be reasonable to assume that Mance and his cohorts are masterminding the attacks; on the other hand, that doesn't mean there aren't humans beyond the Wall with a different set of motives, humans that have no qualms about raiding and destroying their neighbors, and using them as fodder for the wight army.

There is a reasonable context for several intelligent species north of the Wall to have legitimate grievances; the CotF, the giants, and the speculative "True Others" have all lost land, and the humans seem to have found themselves reduced to the status of outcasts and second-class citizens, locked into harsh lands by a Wall 'built of blood.'

Nonetheless...

 

To me, the biggest reason that this question might matter is not only does it get to the issue of motive, it may also get to the issue of timing. If this is some sort of punishment or conquest from the Wildlings, or the CotF, or the Night's King... why now? I guess the cynical answer would be "because this is the time period where GRRM has set his story," but that's not terribly satisfying, at least to me.

As a parallel, we actually have a lot of insight into the Fire side of the threat. Dany's magic is old, but her cause is fresh; she's not coming in the name of Fire, in the name of Old Valyria, or in the name of R'hllor. Heck, she's not even really trying to be the second coming of Aegon the Conqueror. Instead, her cause is deeply personal, and rooted in recent history; ultimately, I suspect that we'll discover that the same is true of what's happening north of the Wall, and that this is all intimately tied to the personal journeys of our characters, rather than 8,000 year old chickens finally coming home to roost. We do not yet know all that there is to know about Harrenhal, and Robert's Rebellion.

If Daenerys decides to bring the dragons to Westeros, she will be reliving the life of Aegon the Conqueror. We don't know who Quaithe really is or what horse she has in the race, but she has been trying to tell Dany how to change her destiny. If my theory about the Wheel of Time is correct and she's on track to reliving Aegon's conquest, then her instructions to go north if she wants to go south, and to go east if she wants to go west are instructions on how to change her destiny.

I think Bran has been manipulating the past in order to change the outcome of the battle against the Others. It's just as Melisandre says, this battle has been going on since time indefinite. In the past Joramun of the wildlings allied himself with the Lord of Winterfell to defeat the Nights King. Now whether or not that story had anything to do about a rising threat of Others being created, I think there is evidence to suggest that is exactly what the Nights King was doing.

For the sake of my example, we'll call the person who is currently creating white walkers the Nights King, so in the present story the "Nights King" is creating white walkers again, but rather than aligning the wildlings with a Lord of Winterfell to defeat the "Nights King" this time the wildlings are allowed through to the south side of the Wall, which results in Jon being killed...at least we think he's dead, but we're expecting a resurrection. Was Jon destined to become the Nights King? Is somebody else the Nights King and Jon has to be dead to defeat him? Was Benjen destined to become the Nights King and that's why Bran made him disappear? Will Melisandre work with or against Bran's plans? Did Bran have to kill his own family so that there wasn't a Lord in Winterfell?

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If Daenerys decides to bring the dragons to Westeros, she will be reliving the life of Aegon the Conqueror. We don't know who Quaithe really is or what horse she has in the race, but she has been trying to tell Dany how to change her destiny. If my theory about the Wheel of Time is correct and she's on track to reliving Aegon's conquest, then her instructions to go north if she wants to go south, and to go east if she wants to go west are instructions on how to change her destiny.

Her journey, even before awakening the dragons, was already significantly different from Aegon's, so I'm not sure how much predestination there is in the very superficial echoes we see between Aegon and Dany; I'm not contending that that element exists, only that it may be more of a storytelling technique being employed than an actual plot point.

For example, we see echoes of Mad Aerys in Cersei's regency. She's expressing a fascination in burning things with wildfire, suffering paranoid delusions, and even throws out an idea that's very similar to one of Mad Aerys' "grand schemes:

 

Quote

His Grace was full of grand schemes as well.
...
In 265 AC, offended by “the stink of King’s Landing,” he spoke of building a “white city” entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush.

Quote

"After the war I mean to build a new palace beyond the river." She had dreamed of it the night before last, a magnificent white castle surrounded by woods and gardens, long leagues from the stinks and noise of King's Landing.

Similarly, with Jaime, we see echoes of Aemon the Dragonknight; among the youngest ever named to the Kingsguard, unparalleled swordsmen, both rumored to be the true fathers of the heirs to the throne (which we know is more than just rumor, in Jaime's case). Where the paths depart, of course, is that Aemon will be forever admired for doing his duty and dying on behalf of an unworthy king--an action that may be admirable on one level, yet ensured the eventuality of the Blackfyre rebellion. Conversely, Jaime will be forever reviled for failing in his duty, even though the slaying of Aerys saved numerous lives.

IMHO, history repeating itself - perhaps with some fun little twists, like the inversion with Jaime - is more thematic than anything else. I think it's a really interesting area to explore, but I don't think our characters are literally destined to behave a certain way, nor that Bran is intervening to change history. I'll admit to 100% personal bias here, as I can't prove that Bran is incapable of altering history, but I feel like that would be a really disappointing development, and completely destroy the stakes in the story, even moreso than the magic of resurrection.

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

To me, the biggest reason that this question might matter is not only does it get to the issue of motive, it may also get to the issue of timing. If this is some sort of punishment or conquest from the Wildlings, or the CotF, or the Night's King... why now? I guess the cynical answer would be "because this is the time period where GRRM has set his story," but that's not terribly satisfying, at least to me.

 

The timing does tend to be one of the big questions, but given what we see of magick in all its forms returning I'm not convinced that there's a trigger at all, but rather that magic is tidal. It waxes and wanes with the seasons and just as we have spring tides and neap tides so in Martin's world there are periods when magic rises beyond the ordinary and things happen, like ancient dragon eggs hatching and the dead walking, rather than the other way around. It may indeed be the case the the significance of the comet is not that it scattered magic pixie dust as it flew by, but that the comet was itself drawn by the growing magic.

Rather than any of the various agencies who seem to be involved bring about this change I'd say it would be more accurate to interpret what we see as their opportunistically seizing the opportunity to do things they couldn't do before.

When the pyromancer asked Tyrion whether he knew of any dragons, because the magic was suddenly working again, the connection was correct but not the cause, ie; the dragons did not make it possible for their spells to work, but rather the spring tide of magic made it possible for both spells to work and dragons to fly.

[Melifeather]

10 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Her journey, even before awakening the dragons, was already significantly different from Aegon's, so I'm not sure how much predestination there is in the very superficial echoes we see between Aegon and Dany; I'm not contending that that element exists, only that it may be more of a storytelling technique being employed than an actual plot point.

For example, we see echoes of Mad Aerys in Cersei's regency. She's expressing a fascination in burning things with wildfire, suffering paranoid delusions, and even throws out an idea that's very similar to one of Mad Aerys' "grand schemes:

 

Similarly, with Jaime, we see echoes of Aemon the Dragonknight; among the youngest ever named to the Kingsguard, unparalleled swordsmen, both rumored to be the true fathers of the heirs to the throne (which we know is more than just rumor, in Jaime's case). Where the paths depart, of course, is that Aemon will be forever admired for doing his duty and dying on behalf of an unworthy king--an action that may be admirable on one level, yet ensured the eventuality of the Blackfyre rebellion. Conversely, Jaime will be forever reviled for failing in his duty, even though the slaying of Aerys saved numerous lives.

IMHO, history repeating itself - perhaps with some fun little twists, like the inversion with Jaime - is more thematic than anything else. I think it's a really interesting area to explore, but I don't think our characters are literally destined to behave a certain way, nor that Bran is intervening to change history. I'll admit to 100% personal bias here, as I can't prove that Bran is incapable of altering history, but I feel like that would be a really disappointing development, and completely destroy the stakes in the story, even moreso than the magic of resurrection.

There are 30 POV chapters with unique names starting in AFFC and finishing in ADWD, starting with The Prophet. I have only completed deciphering the first 4 chapters and have found multiple instances where a character is reliving a past life. They don't have to be exactly the same, but there are similar parallels and in fact there are a couple instances where someone does the exact opposite of a past life character...which could be evidence of Bran's meddling. If you take Westeros itself and fold it in half with the fold running north and south you nearly get the Iron Islands on top of Dragonstone, and Casterly Rock on top of Dorne. Much of what is happening with the Greyjoys is a reliving of the Targaryens. Likewise the Martells are reliving the Lannisters. Winterfell falls right on top of this hinge and I haven't been able to find it's "mirrored" place, but theoretically Bran could be manipulating historical events in order to change the future. Melisandre says the Wall is a hinge. If the Wall is a hinge and there's another one interesting it like a T, then if the Wall hinge were to be flipped down and the door opened so to speak, would that then "normalize" the north and eliminate the threat from the Others?

 

[Black Crow]

22 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

IMHO, history repeating itself - perhaps with some fun little twists, like the inversion with Jaime - is more thematic than anything else. I think it's a really interesting area to explore, but I don't think our characters are literally destined to behave a certain way, nor that Bran is intervening to change history. I'll admit to 100% personal bias here, as I can't prove that Bran is incapable of altering history, but I feel like that would be a really disappointing development, and completely destroy the stakes in the story, even moreso than the magic of resurrection.

I agree and I'd also suggest that some of the parallels are simply down to GRRM recycling his own thoughts and ideas, like New York New York - so good they named it twice. Rather I think that if the parallels are deliberate its in illustrating the repeated follies and consequences of human behaviour generally, instead of this hero or that "come again".

[Matthew.]

48 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

When the pyromancer asked Tyrion whether he knew of any dragons, because the magic was suddenly working again, the connection was correct but not the cause, ie; the dragons did not make it possible for their spells to work, but rather the spring tide of magic made it possible for both spells to work and dragons to fly.

Perhaps, but at the risk of continually bombarding the thread with quotes, we've been given an alternative context by one of the characters who may be more "in the know," Quaithe:
 

Quote

"Half a year gone, that man could scarcely wake fire from dragonglass. He had some small skill with powders and wildfire, sufficient to entrance a crowd while his cutpurses did their work. He could walk across hot coals and make burning roses bloom in the air, but he could no more aspire to climb the fiery ladder than a common fisherman could hope to catch a kraken in his nets."

Dany looked uneasily at where the ladder had stood. Even the smoke was gone now, and the crowd was breaking up, each man going about his business. In a moment more than a few would find their purses flat and empty. "And now?"

"And now his powers grow, Khaleesi. And you are the cause of it."

I'll also once again point out that the "tidal theory" of magic fails to account for the uneven rising and declining of magic. By all the information that the text has given us, ice magic hasn't been seen in a long, long time, and the magic of the Old Gods has been reduced largely to rumor and legend south of the Wall. Yet, during this same time period, Valyrian magic suffered no similar waning, and was chugging along just fine until 400 years ago. On top of all that, it's at least 'rumored' that magic never died or declined in the far east--something that may even be borne out by the fact that Asshai has remained a beacon for learning sorcery.

Edit: To further clarify what I believe the alternative is, the reason that I think things are changing is a direct consequence of the choices being made by those characters with the right blood. In the case of the pyromancy, glass, candles, etc. I think the significance was Dany's choice either to sacrifice Rhaego or create her pyre, perhaps both; her and Rhaego are the blood of the dragon, and the blood sacrifice represents a renewal of that covenant.

Similarly, the reason I believe the magic of the Old Gods declined south of the Wall was nothing tidal, but a specific consequence of men abandoning the bloody rituals that were fueling the magic, whereas the Wildlings kept to more "savage" practices, which is why their skinchanger community was still going strong.

How this relates to the Others, then, follows a similar logic for me: they're back because someone wanted them back, not because this is some new invasion by the Ice People of the far, far north, nor because this is the first time in 8,000 years when someone has been capable of raising wights.

[Black Crow]

True, but tides are uneven and Id still be more inclined to believe the dragons are a sign, not a cause, no matter what Quaithe might tell Danaerys the Dragonlord.

[Matthew.]

If it's tidal, you'd think we'd be able to discern SOME internal logic within Martin's world--our tides might be uneven, but this is, after all, a work of fiction. Why should Fire be strong while Ice is weak, then weak for ~400 years, then strong again just as Ice returns? Why should the strength and weakness of magic be limited by location, unless what's happening at those locations is relevant?

[Black Crow]

I think it comes back to GRRM's dismissal of astrophysical explanations for the dodgy seasons; saying that they have a magical cause - and that it will eventually be revealed[?]

Similarly, as I've argued in the variety of living dead and things that are neither dead nor human, I think that the rise and fall of magic happens where and when it does because GRRM needs it to, not because its governed by laws of Magick which GRRM has eschewed.

And on that note, to bed. Good night all. 

[Matthew.]

Much like the seasons, it happens that GRRM has also been asked the specific question we debate: did magic reawaken because Dany resurrected the dragons, or was Dany able to resurrect the dragons because magic is reawakening? His answer is as you would expect--"that it's a good question, and eventually all will be revealed," to paraphrase.

To me, this tells us two things. The first is, of course, that we're meant to ask the question, and the second is that, like Jon's parentage and the missing Howland Reed, there is an answer. I'll grant it's subjective interpretation, but the fact that GRRM says it will all be explained eventually suggests to me that, at least as concerns the seasons, what's happening isn't just a part of the setting, it's plot.

I'm going to go back to that Quaithe quote, because I think what she's saying about the street performer is important, as it gives us a time frame. We're meant to believe that the man's potential has increased exponentially in only half a year's time; this is not evocative of a slowly rising tide, it's evocative of a man who mere months ago could only draw forth dribs and drabs of magic, and now he can suddenly draw forth a flood because Dany turned on the faucet.

Comparatively, do we think it was only a half a year before Dany arrived in Qarth that the WWs and wights began to arise, or has that been going on for longer? If so, then we might reasonably assume that Ice magic was awakening well before Dany's pyre, and well before the street performer could climb the ladder of flame.

Not only does what we're seeing actually play out with fire sorcery fit with Quaithe's statements, even what we're seeing with the Old Gods fits within a context of magic reawakening in response to human choices, rather than destiny, or tides. For example, Osha says the Old Gods "hold no power south of the Wall," and that certainly seems to have been the case until the Starks were united with their direwolves. Yet, beyond the Wall, Varamyr's magic was strong well before the beginning of the story.

[Matthew.]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

We don't know who Quaithe really is or what horse she has in the race, but she has been trying to tell Dany how to change her destiny.

I'm going to briefly go back to this because, while I'm not sure Dany was 'destined' to do anything, Quaithe's intervention may have begun as early as aGoT, albeit in very subtle fashion.

Following the sacrifice of Rhaego and before awakening to discover the horrible truth, Dany has a series of fever dreams, including visions of dragons, and a vision of her son's heart consumed by fire, which is immediately followed by a turn of phrase that recurs later in ADWD.

Dany IX, aGoT:
 

Quote

After that, for a long time, there was only the pain, the fire within her, and the whisperings of stars.

She woke to the taste of ashes.

Dany X, ADWD:

 

Quote

She dreamed. All her cares fell away from her, and all her pains as well, and she seemed to float upward into the sky. She was flying once again, spinning, laughing, dancing, as the stars wheeled around her and whispered secrets in her ear. "To go north, you must journey south. To reach the west, you must go east. To go forward, you must go back. To touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow."

"Quaithe?" Dany called. "Where are you, Quaithe?"

...

Then she saw. Her mask is made of starlight.

"Remember who you are, Daenerys," the stars whispered in a woman's voice. "The dragons know. Do you?"

Granted, it might be a little crackpot to suggest that Quaithe was "whispering" to Dany as early as aGoT, but it gives us an explanation for why Dany had the sudden inspiration to construct her pyre, and why she was so certain she would emerge unburned--she was already being manipulated by Quaithe, perhaps through a glass candle.

Edit: "All Valyrian sorcery was rooted in blood or fire. The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas, and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions, and speak to one another half a world apart, seated before their Candles. "

[Melifeather]

I need to revise my thoughts regarding the hinge. The Wall is the hinge, but think of it as Alice in Wonderland's mirror. If you were standing on the Wall and looked south, imagine Westeros in reverse. the Iron Islands would be to your right, so they are Dragonstone. Dorne would be to your left, so they are now Casterly Rock. Winterfell is in the south, and Starfall is the north. 

Keeping this perspective in mind, I am wondering if Quaithe is working against Bran by telling Daenerys what she must do in order to be Aegon the Conqueror come-again. The Targaryens launched their invasion from Dragonstone, but now that Bran has altered Westeros, she must arrive from the west, because that is where the Iron Islands are and are now "Dragonstone", so that is where the dragons must now enter from. To me this identifies Quaithe as being on the side of fire like Melisandre. They want to keep the strength of fire magic and keep ice magic minimized.

[Melifeather]

To expand on the Alice's looking glass view from the Wall, that is why I am wondering if Bran changed Jon's parents. If history keeps repeating itself, that would explain why Ygritte told Jon the story of Bael the Bard. If Jon is the bastard of Winterfell, like all the bastard's of Winterfell before him, then his story is supposed to include that his mother was a daughter of Winterfell and his father a wildling Bael. BUT, if Bran changed things so that Winterfell is now Starfall...his parents have changed...but in what way?

[Black Crow]

7 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Much like the seasons, it happens that GRRM has also been asked the specific question we debate: did magic reawaken because Dany resurrected the dragons, or was Dany able to resurrect the dragons because magic is reawakening? His answer is as you would expect--"that it's a good question, and eventually all will be revealed," to paraphrase.

To me, this tells us two things. The first is, of course, that we're meant to ask the question, and the second is that, like Jon's parentage and the missing Howland Reed, there is an answer. I'll grant it's subjective interpretation, but the fact that GRRM says it will all be explained eventually suggests to me that, at least as concerns the seasons, what's happening isn't just a part of the setting, it's plot.

I'm going to go back to that Quaithe quote, because I think what she's saying about the street performer is important, as it gives us a time frame. We're meant to believe that the man's potential has increased exponentially in only half a year's time; this is not evocative of a slowly rising tide, it's evocative of a man who mere months ago could only draw forth dribs and drabs of magic, and now he can suddenly draw forth a flood because Dany turned on the faucet.

Comparatively, do we think it was only a half a year before Dany arrived in Qarth that the WWs and wights began to arise, or has that been going on for longer? If so, then we might reasonably assume that Ice magic was awakening well before Dany's pyre, and well before the street performer could climb the ladder of flame.

Not only does what we're seeing actually play out with fire sorcery fit with Quaithe's statements, even what we're seeing with the Old Gods fits within a context of magic reawakening in response to human choices, rather than destiny, or tides. For example, Osha says the Old Gods "hold no power south of the Wall," and that certainly seems to have been the case until the Starks were united with their direwolves. Yet, beyond the Wall, Varamyr's magic was strong well before the beginning of the story.

It's certainly a question posed by GRRM myself, but I'm still of the view that the dragons are an effect rather than a cause. Even allowing for the lack of total synchronicity [and we have the appearance of the comet as a marker] things were going down beyond the Wall long before the dragons hatched. I'm still more inclined to see the return of magic as a spring tide overtopping a metaphysical beach or sea wall. Once it reaches a certain level it cascades over, its power increasing exponentially. Once the dragons hatch they might well add to the power of magic, but they themselves needed to be awakened first.  

[Black Crow]

7 hours ago, Matthew. said:

Granted, it might be a little crackpot to suggest that Quaithe was "whispering" to Dany as early as aGoT, but it gives us an explanation for why Dany had the sudden inspiration to construct her pyre, and why she was so certain she would emerge unburned--she was already being manipulated by Quaithe, perhaps through a glass candle.

Edit: "All Valyrian sorcery was rooted in blood or fire. The sorcerers of the Freehold could see across mountains, seas, and deserts with one of these glass candles. They could enter a man's dreams and give him visions, and speak to one another half a world apart, seated before their Candles. "

I think that this is certainly a conclusion we're being steered towards. The parallels with Bran's manipulation by the three-eyed crow are certainly inescapable and I wonder therefore whether its the case that the three-fingered tree-huggers do it the "natural" way with weirwood paste [and blood?] while the other lot need dragonglass - and if so is it necessary to bleed on the candle to switch it on?

[Black Crow]

9 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I need to revise my thoughts regarding the hinge...

 

 

 

Hinge

noun a movable joint or mechanism on which a door, gate, or lid swings as it opens and closes or which connects linked objects.

•  

   
•  

   

 

Myself, I see GRRM/Mel using the term as its defined here. It connects the realms of Ice and Fire and at the same time is the mechanism which passage between them may be opened or closed

[Melifeather]

4 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

 

Hinge

noun a movable joint or mechanism on which a door, gate, or lid swings as it opens and closes or which connects linked objects.

•  

   
•  

   

 

Myself, I see GRRM/Mel using the term as its defined here. It connects the realms of Ice and Fire and at the same time is the mechanism which passage between them may be opened or closed

 

Just so. But just like there are opposites like ice and fire, black and white, there is the other side of the door.

[Black Crow]

Just now, Feather Crystal said:

 

Just so. But just like there are opposites like ice and fire, black and white, there is the other side of the door.

Quite, except that I am reading the other side of the door as the other side of the Wall hence passing through the Black Gate to reach the Heart of Darkness.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Quite, except that I am reading the other side of the door as the other side of the Wall hence passing through the Black Gate to reach the Heart of Darkness.

I once thought so too, but now I think the other side of the hinge is an Alice in Wonderland's Looking Glass.