Margaery's Moon Tea

[Lost Melnibonean]

24 minutes ago, Red Man Racey said:

A fifth option was presented:  someone (most likely Taena) was requesting the moon tea on Maraery's behalf to use it as evidence against her later. I don't necessarily think this is a likely option, but I bring it up just for completeness.

On to the analysis, I'll start with the options I feel are least likely.

Number 4:  almost assuredly incorrect; as others have said (and you describe it well as a "Rube Goldberg" plot) this is just too complex, convoluted, and doesn't have the payoff to warrant such a huge risk

Number 2:  possibly true but probably not; I think that we would have some indication or hint at a non-abortificant use by now, otherwise this would feel contrived

Number 5:  possibly true but still probably not; this suffers from some "Rube Goldbergness" of its own, it's not quite as crazy as 4, but not far behind in terms of complexity, however, this option does have a slightly better risk/reward ratio

Number 3:  very possible; Margaery is naïve enough to think that this is ok, that Pycelle will keep the secret and even if he doesn't, she isn't expecting his untimely murder so that he can't tell the whole truth of the situation (although his "untimely" murder could lend some credence to a Varys-Taena plot under option Number 5 since Varys kills him and now the truth has died with Pycelle thus ensuring that he can never reveal that Taena was actually requesting the moon tea, but I digress). Also, the way Cersei cuts off Pycelle as he's talking could indicate this as the real situation.

Number 1:  most likely option; Occam's Razor, this is the simplest solution to the problem - Margaery is a young woman in her sexual prime and it's being wasted on a preteen. In the immortal words of Cyndi Lauper "Girls just wanna have fun." Just like in option Number 3 Margaery is naïve enough to believe that her secret is safe with Pycelle.

 

Overall, I think the probability breaks down like this 1>3>5=2>>4

The problem with the theory that Margaery wasn't asking for or drinking moon tea at all, and that it was was just a frame by Taena (presumably for Varys), is the possibility that Pycelle might have reported it as such to Cersei. Of course, Taena could then have told Cersei that she knew Osney wasn't having any success, betting that Cersei would appreciate her initiative. What do you think? Is this the answer? 

[Red Man Racey]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The problem with the theory that Margaery wasn't asking for or drinking moon tea at all, and that it was was just a frame by Taena (presumably for Varys), is the possibility that Pycelle might have reported it as such to Cersei. Of course, Taena could then have told Cersei that she knew Osney wasn't having any success, betting that Cersei would appreciate her initiative. What do you think? Is this the answer? 

I think the Taena frame-up option is unlikely to be true, but let's assume for a moment that it is true. There's two possible motivations, Taena acting independently to curry favor with Cersei or Taena acting as an agent of some schemer (most likely Varys). If Taena is acting independently then Pycelle is a threat - he can divulge at any time that Margaery never requested the moon tea herself and that it was Taena. This could cause blowback onto Cersei since it is known that they were friends. So perhaps Taena just didn't think through the secondary and tertiary effects of this plan, but this seems out of character for someone who just came up with this fairly intricate plot. So if the Taena frame-up option is true then I feel it more likely she was acting as the agent of some schemer (Varys is the most likely culprit) - once again, Pycelle could reveal at any time the truth about who was doing the actual requesting, but conveniently, Pycelle goes and gets himself murdered. Murdered by whom? Varys. In this scenario Varys allows Pycelle to reveal just enough information that it sows further chaos and discord in King's Landing and then kills him before he can clear Margaery's name.

Honestly, I don't think the Taena frame-up option is likely, but crazier things have happened. I mainly just included it in my previous post to make sure that all suggested possibilities were covered. Which of the five scenarios do you find most likely?

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 minutes ago, Red Man Racey said:

I think the Taena frame-up option is the least likely to be true, but let's assume for a moment that it is true. There's two possible motivations, Taena acting independently to curry favor with Cersei or Taena acting as an agent of some schemer (most likely Varys). If Taena is acting independently then Pycelle is a threat - he can divulge at any time that Margaery never requested the moon tea herself and that it was Taena. This could cause blowback onto Cersei since it is known that they were friends. So perhaps Taena just didn't think through the secondary and tertiary effects of this plan, but this seems out of character for someone who just came up with this fairly intricate plot. So if the Taena frame-up option is true then I feel it more likely she was acting as the agent of some schemer (Varys is the most likely culprit) - once again, Pycelle could reveal at any time the truth about who was doing the actual requesting, but conveniently, Pycelle goes and gets himself murdered. Murdered by whom? Varys. In this scenario Varys allows Pycelle to reveal just enough information that it sows further chaos and discord in King's Landing and then kills him before he can clear Margaery's name.

Honestly, I don't think the Taena frame-up option is likely, but crazier things have happened. I mainly just included it in my previous post to make sure that all suggested possibilities were covered. Which of the five scenarios do you find most likely?

The only one I think is crackpot (but just a hairline fracture) is the Rube Goldberg plot to entrap Cersei. That's just cockamamie. The idea that Margaery would ask for it for herself to protect one of her ladies in waiting seems pretty far fetched since we would normally expect it to be the other way round. I could buy either of the other three. I like the way the Taena frame for Varys fits into the plot. 

[Red Man Racey]

16 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The only one I think is crackpot (but just a hairline fracture) is the Rube Goldberg plot to entrap Cersei. That's just cockamamie. The idea that Margaery would ask for it for herself to protect one of her ladies in waiting seems pretty far fetched since we would normally expect it to be the other way round. I could buy either of the other three. I like the way the Taena frame for Varys fits into the plot. 

Yeah, after writing out the details of the Taena/Varys conspiracy it doesn't sound quite as crackpot as I initially thought it would. I don't think it will end up being true, but it does fit the story well enough to be possible. Also, I misspoke when I said the Taena frame-up was the least likely option; in my initial assessment I had the Margaery false flag against Cersei as the least likely and somehow got those two mixed up in my last response. I think I'll try to do some research to further explore the possibility of a Taena/Varys connection.

[Seams]

Funny that this thread and your Dancy thread are revived at nearly the same time - the German word for "dance" is "Tanz," and both threads have related content about illegitimate children. In short, a character named Tansy works at the inn/brothel known as The Peach along with Robert's illegitimate daughter, Bella; the Dancy thread speculates that the prostitute known as Dancy and her co-worker Marei were also the out-of-wedlock daughters of highborn families. Note, also, that the actual fruit peach is associated with Renly.

Because of the "A Dance of Dragons" title, people think that the word "dance" represents war, but maybe it represents "bastard" descendants. (What would that mean for Bran's horse, Dancer? Well that particular horse is equated to Hodor, and Hodor - whose real name is Walder - appears to be connected to House Frey . . . Next we would have to sort out why Sansa loves dancing . . . )

21 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Which leaves number 1. Yeah, I think she [ Margaery ] might be having sex with someone, and someone who is obviously not Tommen. In my opinion, it's the only thing that fits. Why would she take the risk of going to Pycelle personally? Why, because she wants the fewest people possible knowing that she's having moon tea, she and Pycelle only. It might also explain why she doesn't go to a Tyrell maester. Any Tyrell maester probably reports to either Mace or Olenna, and her extramarital affair is counter to their plots. Pycelle probably isn't a known Lannister supporter, and he is the Grand Maester, after all, so he ought to keep silent about the Queen's business. I think avoiding being pregnant is the only thing that makes getting moon tea worth the risk.

Even if she is getting the moon tea because she's having sex, there's still (as yet) no proof of it, so it hardly invalidates Cersei's actions. It's still speculation, and the Tyrells (probably) have enough influence to prevent her from being tried simply because she's getting moon tea (for any number of reasons that she could lie about). It's entirely possible that Cersei believes (and that she's right to) that Margaery really is committing treason, but still feels compelled to frame her, to be sure she can't worm her way out of it.

If she's not having sex, then she's an idiot for getting the moon tea herself.

I think there is other evidence to support the theory that Margaery is having sex.

I hadn't considered the possibility that it might be Renly's baby - I never pay attention to timelines, unless I have to, and I assumed too much time had elapsed since Renly's death to keep a pregnancy hidden, aside from Renly being attracted to Ser Loras instead of Margaery.

It seemed possible to me that Joffrey and Margaery might have had some premarital sex and that Margaery sought out the moon tea when Joffrey died before the bedding. She knew she needed to seem virginal in order to marry Tommen, and that Tommen would not be able to father children for some time.

The literary hints that support this come from Cersei's breakfast on the morning of Margaery and Tommen's wedding, believe it or not:

It was the wedding that enraged her, though the slow-witted Swyft girl made a safer target. Tommen's hold upon the Iron Throne was not secure enough for her to risk offending Highgarden. Not so long as Stannis Baratheon held Dragonstone and Storm's End, so long as Riverrun continued in defiance, so long as ironmen prowled the seas like wolves. So Jocelyn must needs eat the meal Cersei would sooner have served to Margaery Tyrell and her hideous wrinkled grandmother.

 

To break her fast the queen sent to the kitchens for two boiled eggs, a loaf of bread, and a pot of honey. But when she cracked the first egg and found a bloody half-formed chick inside, her stomach roiled. "Take this away and bring me hot spiced wine," she told Senelle. The chill in the air was settling in her bones, and she had a long nasty day ahead of her.

 

Nor did Jaime help her mood when he turned up all in white and still unshaven, to tell her how he meant to keep her son from being poisoned. "I will have men in the kitchens watching as each dish is prepared," he said. "Ser Addam's gold cloaks will escort the servants as they bring the food to table, to make certain no tampering takes place along the way. Ser Boros will be tasting every course before Tommen puts a bite into his mouth. And if all that should fail, Maester Ballabar will be seated in the back of the hall, with purges and antidotes for twenty common poisons on his person. Tommen will be safe, I promise you."

(AFFC, Cersei III)

 

We have references to the tenuous Tyrell / Lannister alliance, a dead fetal chick and a Maester's potions all in quick succession. Notice also the words, "her stomach roiled." Is this a nod to someone's royal stomach? I suppose this could mean that Cersei is pregnant, but my guess is that it's a reference to Margaery, who was linked to lots of chicks and an egg (cracked open by Sansa) in the scene with the fool Butterbumps.

 

Consider, though, the point made by several people in this forum: Pycelle was secretly loyal to Tywin. The Lannisters couldn't afford to offend Highgarden, but what if Highgarden offended the Lannisters? What if not-yet-married Margaery came to Pycelle for the moon tea, and Pycelle immediately ran to Tywin to ask him what to do. Tywin realized that a pregnant Margaery before the bedding would be considered a huge insult - and treason - toward the king. He didn't like Joffrey anyway, so he decided to sacrifice Joffrey, who had to die before the bedding in order for the treason to be exposed in a timely manner. Tywin instructs Pycelle to give Margaery fake moon tea so that the pregnancy would continue, explaining why Margaery had to return many times for additional doses.

 

When the pregnancy is exposed, the Lannisters would be shocked and dismayed, the Tyrells would be ashamed but couldn't pretend to be offended since it would be their girl who was exposed as the floozy. The Tyrells would still have to be loyal to the throne but could no longer insist that a Tyrell daughter be the bride of the new king - they had no other daughters, and Margaery would now be tainted. So Tywin could be the regent for Tommen, he wouldn't have to worry about a non-Lannister heir for some time, or about the queen's family (whoever the new queen might be) using the birth of an heir as an excuse to expand their power and influence.

 

I know that some of the theories in this forum about Joffrey's death included competing murder plots, with the Tyrells wanting Joffrey to die after the bedding. If the Tyrells knew Margaery was already safely pregnant, one night of intercourse would be enough to ensure that she would remain queen while her baby came of age. Maybe Tywin knew about their plot, realized that they would get Joff sooner or later, and just wanted to insure that Joffrey died before the bedding in order to ruin their plot.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 minutes ago, Red Man Racey said:

Yeah, after writing out the details of the Taena/Varys conspiracy it doesn't sound quite as crackpot as I initially thought it would. I don't think it will end up being true, but it does fit the story well enough to be possible. Also, I misspoke when I said the Taena frame-up was the least likely option; in my initial assessment I had the Margaery false flag against Cersei as the least likely and somehow got those two mixed up in my last response. I think I'll try to do some research to further explore the possibility of a Taena/Varys connection.

I think Orton and Taena are on the Green Team, aka Team Aegon, the black dragon. She being from one of the three daughters, and him being the son of a lord who suffered greatly at the hands of a Targaryen. 

And Taena is not just from one of the three daughters...

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It was Lady Merryweather who truly pleased her. "Your Grace," that one said, in her sultry Myrish tones, "I have sent word to my friends across the narrow sea, asking them to seize the Imp at once should he show his ugly face in the Free Cities."

"Do you have many friends across the water?"

"In Myr, many. In Lys as well, and Tyrosh. Men of power."

Cersei could well believe it. The Myrish woman was too beautiful by half; long-legged and full-breasted, with smooth olive skin, ripe lips, huge dark eyes, and thick black hair that always looked as if she'd just come from bed. She even smells of sin, like some exotic lotus. "Lord Merryweather and I wish only to serve Your Grace and the little king," the woman purred, with a look that was as pregnant as Lady Graceford.

This one is ambitious, and her lord is proud but poor. "We must speak again, my lady. Taena, is it? You are most kind. I know that we shall be great friends."

 

Cersei II, Feast 7

Cersei thinks of Taena Merryweather of Myr as “sloe-eyed.” Now, my understanding was that sloe-eyed, meant a gal with almond-shaped eyes. But, as I was rereading Cersei III, Feast 12, I looked up the definition on Merriam-Webster online, and read this...

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1:  having soft dark bluish- or purplish-black eyes

2:  having slanted eyes

 

And there's this...

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She has no notion what a sweet serpent she has in that Myrish slut.

Jaime II, Feast 16

The author refers to dragons as serpents and snakes several times. As in...

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Drogon arched upward with a hiss of pain. His tail lashed sideways. She watched his head crane around at the end of that long serpentine neck, saw his black wings unfold. 

Daenerys IX, Dance 52

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Two eyes rose up before him.

Bronze, they were, brighter than polished shields, glowing with their own heat, burning behind a veil of smoke rising from the dragon's nostrils. The light of Quentyn's torch washed over scales of dark green, the green of moss in the deep woods at dusk, just before the last light fades. Then the dragon opened its mouth, and light and heat washed over them. Behind a fence of sharp black teeth he glimpsed the furnace glow, the shimmer of a sleeping fire a hundred times brighter than his torch. The dragon's head was larger than a horse's, and the neck stretched on and on, uncoiling like some great green serpent as the head rose, until those two glowing bronze eyes were staring down at him.

...

A trickle of ash caught his eye, betraying movement. Something pale, half-hidden, stirring. He' s made himself a cave, the prince realized. A burrow in the brick. The foundations of the Great Pyramid of Meereen were massive and thick to support the weight of the huge structure overhead; even the interior walls were three times thicker than any castle's curtain walls. But Viserion had dug himself a hole in them with flame and claw, a hole big enough to sleep in.

And we' ve just woken him. He could see what looked like some huge white serpent uncoiling inside the wall, up where it curved to become the ceiling. More ash went drifting downward, and a bit of crumbling brick fell away. The serpent resolved itself into a neck and tail, and then the dragon's long horned head appeared, his eyes glowing in the dark like golden coals. His wings rattled, stretching.

 

The Dragontamer, Dance 68

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When she had her handmaids char the horsemeat black, the dragons ripped at it eagerly, their heads striking like snakes.

Daenerys I, Clash 12

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Drogon's long neck snaked out and he opened his mouth to scream, steam rising from between his teeth.

Daenerys IV, Clash 48

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She took a chunk of salt pork out of the bowl in her lap and held it up for her dragons to see. All three of them eyed it hungrily. Rhaegal spread green wings and stirred the air, and Viserion's neck swayed back and forth like a long pale snake's as he followed the movement of her hand.

Daenerys I, Storm 8

I got a silver stag says Orton is related to House Hightower...

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"We do, Your Grace." Orton Merryweather was not a comely man, with his big lumpish nose and shock of unruly reddish-orange hair, but he was never less than courteous. "We have Dornish red and Arbor gold, and a fine sweet hippocras from Highgarden."

"The gold, I think. I find Dornish wines as sour as the Dornish." As Merryweather filled her cup, Cersei said, "I suppose we had as well begin with them."

 

Cersei IV, Feast 17

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"Make way!" someone shouted from the cross street. "Make way for my lords of Redwyne!" It was all Arya could do to get out of the road before they ran her down, four guardsmen on huge horses, pounding past at a gallop. They wore checked cloaks, blue-and-burgundy. Behind them, two young lordlings rode side by side on a pair of chestnut mares alike as peas in a pod. Arya had seen them in the bailey a hundred times; the Redwyne twins, Ser Horas and Ser Hobber, homely youths with orange hair and square, freckled faces. Sansa and Jeyne Poole used to call them Ser Horror and Ser Slobber, and giggle whenever they caught sight of them. They did not look funny now.

Arya V, Game 65

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The others had to scramble for seats: Lord Mace Tyrell, a heavy, robust man with curling brown hair and a spade-shaped beard well salted with white; Paxter Redwyne of the Arbor, stoop-shouldered and thin, his bald head fringed by tufts of orange hair; Mathis Rowan, Lord of Goldengrove, clean-shaven, stout, and sweating; the High Septon, a frail man with wispy white chin hair.

Tyrion III, Storm 19

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Jaime lifted his own cup left-handed and took a swallow. The warmth spread through his chest. "You were speaking of the Freys you wanted dead. Ryman, Edwyn, Emmon . . ."

"And Walder Rivers," Daven said, "that whoreson. Hates that he's a bastard, and hates everyone who's not. Ser Perwyn seems a decent fellow, though, might as well spare him. The women too. I'm to marry one, I hear. Your father might have seen fit to consult with me about this marriage, by the bye. My own father was treating with Paxter Redwyne before Oxcross, did you know? Redwyne has a nicely dowered daughter . . ."

"Desmera?" Jaime laughed. "How well do you like freckles?"

"If my choice is Freys or freckles, well . . . half of Lord Walder's brood look like stoats."

Jaime V, Feast 33

Perhaps Orton is another grandson of Runceford...

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Tyrion left the fat women to their loaves and kettles and went in search of the cellar where Illyrio had decanted him the night before. It was not hard to find. There was enough wine there to keep him drunk for a hundred years; sweet reds from the Reach and sour reds from Dorne, pale Pentoshi ambers, the green nectar of Myr, three score casks of Arbor gold, even wines from the fabled east, from Qarth and Yi Ti and Asshai by the Shadow. In the end, Tyrion chose a cask of strongwine marked as the private stock of Lord Runceford Redwyne, the grandfather of the present Lord of the Arbor. The taste of it was languorous and heady on the tongue, the color a purple so dark that it looked almost black in the dim-lit cellar. Tyrion filled a cup, and a flagon for good measure, and carried them up to the gardens to drink beneath those cherry trees he'd seen.

Tyrion I, Dance 1

House Redwyne fought on the side of the greens in the Dance of the Dragons. The poisoned wine meant for Daenerys bore the mark of Redwyne, possibly foreshadowing antagonism between Redwyne and Daenerys. While held hostage by Cersei, the Redwyne twins arranged to escape on a Pentoshi galley. Tyrion ordered the Pentoshi captain to be sent to the Wall, but we never read any suggestion that Varys carried out the order. Along with Mathis Rowan and Randyll Tarly, Paxter Redwyne appears to be among Mace Tyrell’s closest allies, and he is described as Mace’s oldest friend by Petyr, but in the very next paragraph, Cersei calls him a traitor. Tyrion found a cask of strongwine from the private stock of Paxter’s grandfather in Illyrio’s cellar, and the child’s clothing Tyrion used in Illyrio’s Manse bore Redwyne colors. Paxter is on his way to sweep the Ironmen from the western seas, so he might welcome an alliance with Aegon, and Aegon might see value in saving Oldtown and the Starry Sept. I wonder how Desmera Redwyne might fit into such an alliance? Daven Lannister told Jaime that his father had been negotiating a marriage contract with Paxter before Oxcross, and that she was well dowered.

If House Merryweather is on team Aegon, then apparently, so is Ser Bonnifer Hasty and his holy hundred...

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Jaime could not be certain who had convinced his sister that Ser Bonifer should be named castellan of Harrenhal, but the appointment smelled of Orton Merryweather. Hasty had once served Merryweather’s grandsire, he seemed to recall dimly.

Jaime III, Feast 27

[The Fattest Leech]

I don't know if the timeline adds up that Marg could be preggo with Renly's child. It seems more than a year has passed since Marg married Renly, and if Renly did his duty for even one night, that baby would be about three months old by now.

So, apparently, Marg married Renly about 1/5-1/8 299. Renly dies about 6/12/299. Marg arrives in KL about 10/25/299. Sansa plot to marry Willas is a few days later, about 10/29/299. Tywin dies about 1/24/300. And it is not until about 3/16/300 that Mace is at Storm's End and Cersei is plotting with Osney to seduce Marg.

I am awful with keeping track of the timeline just in my head, but I do use this timeline from time to time. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

I think Marg was sleeping with someone because she does not have a huge desire to be queen and she is making flippant, teenage bad decisions in the case. Damned teenagers! I think the use of Pycelle was to keep the info as far away from her Tyrell family as possible... and she is the queen so why would anyone question her or rat her out??? (<yes, slight sarcasm)

I think Pycelle was more specifically a Twyin man, and more reluctantly a man for his children. We see Pycelle was the only one who cried for Tywin at his death, Pycelle had Aerys open the gates for Tywin (probably expecting Tywin to take over), and Pycelle is not openly forthcoming with info for Tyrion or Cersei like he was with Tywin.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

10 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

<snip>

I don't know, I'm still not convinced Pycelle wasn't about to offer some innocent explanation. Here's how GRRM could've written the scene:

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"Why does Margaery send for you?"

"She desires . . . she . . . she . . ."

"Say it!"

He cringed. "Moon tea," he whispered. There it is.

 

And here's how he did write it:

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"Why does Margaery send for you?"

"She desires . . . she . . . she . . ."

"Say it!"

He cringed. "Moon tea," he whispered. "Moon tea, for . . ."

"I know what moon tea is for." There it is.

 

I don't see what purpose those extra words serve, except to plant the possibility that Cersei's hubris will be her undoing. It's very much in character for her understanding of a situation to be wrong, and it's very much in character for her to attempt to force her version of reality on others. (That vegan bloke did an interesting video on it.)

We also have Cersei on more than one occassion literally forcing people to accept her version of reality, and training them to repeat it under pressure, through threats, bribery and even torture. The Blue Bard, Hamish the Harper, Shae... If I'm right, then Pycelle wouldn't be the only person to lie about Margaery after some pressure from Cersei. And it doesn't seem like it'd take much pressure in his case:

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"What I want to know is why she has need of you. Is my good-daughter unwell?"

"Unwell?" The old man plucked at the thing he called a beard, that patched growth of thin white hair sprouting from the loose pink wattles under his chin. "N-not unwell, Your Grace, not as such. My oaths forbid me to divulge . . ."

"Your oaths will be of small comfort in the black cells," she warned him. "I'll hear the truth, or you'll wear chains."

Pycelle collapsed to his knees. "I beg you . . . I was your lord father's man, and a friend to you in the matter of Lord Arryn. I could not survive the dungeons, not again . . ."

 

I know it's a bit thin, but it'd be very much in keeping with Cersei's story for her best-laid plans to blow up in her face because (a) she's too arrogant and impatient and (b) her lackeys are too afraid to tell her the truth.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The idea that Margaery would ask for it for herself to protect one of her ladies in waiting seems pretty far fetched since we would normally expect it to be the other way round.

Not necessarily. Margaery has access to a maester who is sworn to keep her secrets. Do the other ladies-in-waiting have the same?

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I forgot to mention: Pycelle saying he got moon tea for Margaery many times might have timeline and other plausibility issues: how many is many? And how long has Margaery been in King's Landing? From the start of ASOS to "many times" is only a few months, a year at best. Just how much cock was she getting?

Alternatively, we have the idea that Pycelle is repeating a lie that's been told to him by Cersei, and overegging the pudding seems more her style.

[The Fattest Leech]

6 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I forgot to mention: Pycelle saying he got moon tea for Margaery many times might have timeline and other plausibility issues: how many is many? And how long has Margaery been in King's Landing? From the start of ASOS to "many times" is only a few months, a year at best. Just how much cock was she getting?

Alternatively, we have the idea that Pycelle is repeating a lie that's been told to him by Cersei, and overegging the pudding seems more her style.

I just mentioned the timeline in my post above. Here is what I mentioned:

I don't know if the timeline adds up that Marg could be preggo with Renly's child. It seems more than a year has passed since Marg married Renly, and if Renly did his duty for even one night, that baby would be about three months old by now.

So, apparently, Marg married Renly about 1/5-1/8 299. Renly dies about 6/12/299. Marg arrives in KL about 10/25/299. Sansa plot to marry Willas is a few days later, about 10/29/299. Tywin dies about 1/24/300. And it is not until about 3/16/300 that Mace is at Storm's End and Cersei is plotting with Osney to seduce Marg.

I am awful with keeping track of the timeline just in my head, but I do use this timeline from time to time. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

It seems Marg has been in KL for about 5-6 months already by the time the trials and everything comes to a head. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I don't know how many "many times" actually is, though.

[Lost Melnibonean]

If Margaery was playing a bit of how's your father, with whom was she playing? 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

And how does Jhalabar Xho fit into all this? I know he's in exile, but perhaps the Summer Islanders will still take it as an affront

[The Fattest Leech]

2 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

And how does Jhalabar Xho fit into all this? I know he's in exile, but perhaps the Summer Islanders will still take it as an affront

I am hoping like all hells he does!!!

It could be the SI will take offense to this. It was also noted recently in another thread that Sansa got to be sorta friendly (non-sexual) with Jhalabar and there may be some future swing back connections to Sansa and the Tyrells (maybe) and this could add to it in the future.

[The Fattest Leech]

8 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Margaery was playing a bit of how's your father, with whom was she playing? 

Don't know. Maybe that is not the important part??? Not claiming anything here, but maybe just the act of it, not the with who, is to further her and Cersei's plot along???

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I just mentioned the timeline in my post above. Here is what I mentioned:

I don't know if the timeline adds up that Marg could be preggo with Renly's child. It seems more than a year has passed since Marg married Renly, and if Renly did his duty for even one night, that baby would be about three months old by now.

So, apparently, Marg married Renly about 1/5-1/8 299. Renly dies about 6/12/299. Marg arrives in KL about 10/25/299. Sansa plot to marry Willas is a few days later, about 10/29/299. Tywin dies about 1/24/300. And it is not until about 3/16/300 that Mace is at Storm's End and Cersei is plotting with Osney to seduce Marg.

I am awful with keeping track of the timeline just in my head, but I do use this timeline from time to time. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

It seems Marg has been in KL for about 5-6 months already by the time the trials and everything comes to a head. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I don't know how many "many times" actually is, though.

Sansa says the PW won't before a moon's turn in the chapter with Loras making the request for the marriage between Joffrey and Margaery, but that's before Margaery arrives. Anyhow, the battle of the Blackwater is early October. Renly's death coincides with what appears to be a moonless night (which I always take being at the turn of a month). Stannis stays between 2 weeks and a moon at Storm's End, before taking it and march on King's Landing. So, it seems to me that Renly died later than half through 299, and Renly proclaimed himself king at the start of 299 AC (in aGoT) and consecutively married Margaery. Remember that Renly took his fine time to travel from Highgarden towards King's Landing. I would place Cat 4 more in late August. So, Margaery could have been preggers around half August, making it 5-6th month for Margaery in January and February after the PW. And theoretically it's possible she only realizes she's pregnant then. We are not exactly sure when Margaery asked for it, but I'd suspect not before Olenna leaves.

I don't believe a, exaggerated word of Pycelle's public confession - that was rehearsed and Cersei preppred him to what exactly he was to say or it would be the dungeons for him. When the Septa declared inspection revealed Margaery was no virgin anymore, he said what he had been told to say to save his own skin, believing the Tyrells to be history and powerless. Kevan's POV in aDwD months later, with Pycelle and Mace together at a council meeting with Mace being convinced his daughter can prove her innocense at a normal trial shows that neither Kevan nor Mace consider Pycell's public statements in the throne room as damnable. And though Pycelle likes to have some bodyguards for those statements made months earlier and acts apologetic about saying those things in the throne room, Mace is not actually out to kill him. I'm pretty sure that Pycelle and Mace already talked things over in that time, and I don't think it's a secret to Mace or even Kevan what the "for" was about. I don't think those two men would otherwise be in the same room afterwards. We just are not privy to it, because Kevan is only a POV in the epilogue, and we otherwise only have Cersei's two chapters, while she's shut away in a cell and doesn't get back to the Red Keep at the end of her walk. 

 

4 hours ago, Red Man Racey said:

Pycelle could reveal at any time the truth about who was doing the actual requesting, but conveniently, Pycelle goes and gets himself murdered. Murdered by whom? Varys. In this scenario Varys allows Pycelle to reveal just enough information that it sows further chaos and discord in King's Landing and then kills him before he can clear Margaery's name.

Pycelle's death before the trial is not extra incriminating for Margaery. Sure, he can't explain why she asked the moon tea for, but neither can he be called as a witness to claim she asked for it in the first place. Since he's dead, all of his testimony is inadmissable. His death is actually beneficial for Margaery, especially when Kettleback and the Blue Bard are exposed as liars.

Kevan and Pycelle were the Lannister men who wanted to re-cement the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. Killing them pits Cersei and the Tyrells against each other, and he simply wishes that alliance to break, most likely make for the last push so that the Tyrells choose to join Aegon. The Tyrells have Dragonstone and Storm's End. And Aegon doesn't come with a crazy mother-regent.

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

And how does Jhalabar Xho fit into all this? I know he's in exile, but perhaps the Summer Islanders will still take it as an affront

Aurane took off with the fleet after Cersei ended up in a cell, supposedly to the Stepstones. What if he sails even more South to the Summer Isles? Imo Aurane is up to something and we'll see him again. Just not sure whether he'll go pro-Aegon or sails for Mereen and is pro-Dany.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

17 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Pycelle's death before the trial is not extra incriminating for Margaery. Sure, he can't explain why she asked the moon tea for, but neither can he be called as a witness to claim she asked for it in the first place. Since he's dead, all of his testimony is inadmissable. 

It most certainly is admissible. Even in the current US courts, it could come in. One of the exceptions to hearsay rule under certain circumstances is when the declarant is unavailable. If the declarant is deceased, he is unavailable. 

[sweetsunray]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It most certainly is admissible. Even in the current US courts, it could come in. One of the exceptions to hearsay rule under certain circumstances is when the declarant is unavailable. If the declarant is deceased, he is unavailable. 

If his prior public confession in court had been recorded by Faith officials. It's not a court trial, but a Faith trial, with the judges being chosen from the Faith. They can of course ask numerous witnesses who were in the throne room to recount what Pycelle said, but Margaery can still use an explanation for the request without Pycelle having the ability to deny it. In fact the "many times" can be used by her for that. And if they allow Pycelle's throne room words, then it's problematic to deny Mace the chance to recount or make up an explanation that Pycelle todl him about it afterwards.

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

If his prior public confession in court had been recorded by Faith officials. It's not a court trial, but a Faith trial, with the judges being chosen from the Faith. They can of course ask numerous witnesses who were in the throne room to recount what Pycelle said, but Margaery can still use an explanation for the request without Pycelle having the ability to deny it. In fact the "many times" can be used by her for that. And if they allow Pycelle's throne room words, then it's problematic to deny Mace the chance to recount or make up an explanation that Pycelle todl him about it afterwards.

You should consider retaining a public maester. He might counsel you to bolster your argument by asserting that the unavailable declarant exception should not apply since the proponent wrongfully caused the declarant’s unavailability as a witness in order to prevent the declarant from attending or testifying. Otherwise, that testimony is coming in as former testimony and a statement against interest. 

Yes it is problematic for Mace. Mace has a lot of problems about now. This could make for a nice blue book exam in an evidence class. 

[The Fattest Leech]

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Sansa says the PW won't before a moon's turn in the chapter with Loras making the request for the marriage between Joffrey and Margaery, but that's before Margaery arrives. Anyhow, the battle of the Blackwater is early October. Renly's death coincides with what appears to be a moonless night (which I always take being at the turn of a month). Stannis stays between 2 weeks and a moon at Storm's End, before taking it and march on King's Landing. So, it seems to me that Renly died later than half through 299, and Renly proclaimed himself king at the start of 299 AC (in aGoT) and consecutively married Margaery. Remember that Renly took his fine time to travel from Highgarden towards King's Landing. I would place Cat 4 more in late August. So, Margaery could have been preggers around half August, making it 5-6th month for Margaery in January and February after the PW. And theoretically it's possible she only realizes she's pregnant then. We are not exactly sure when Margaery asked for it, but I'd suspect not before Olenna leaves.

This feels awkward to not fully agree with you.

Hmm, I can give a little bit of sway one way or the other on the timeline, but maybe not so much for a prime teenaged girl in the story being pregnant and not knowing it that far along. Fat Walda seems to have some symptoms and she is not that far along and a large sized lady. Dany at the end of ADWD even counts her cycle time. She would be counting her menstrual cycle and keeping mental note, especially is she was the queen and needed to be pregnant, or, the queen and needed to not be pregnant because Renly could not perform all the way/at all.

Not wanting to be too descriptive and crass, but to lose a baby at 5-6 months is not a physically easy thing. There is a large something there. Fetuses that size are somewhere between 10-14 inches long, bones are solidifying, external digits, ears, etc are mostly formed. If George is skipping the real-world technicals for story purposes, ok, his rules, but he seems to keep many real world realities in place as we see with the malformed, lackwitted, whatever incest Targ babies.

Also, I think it was you who mentioned to me several months ago that there could be some issues like this with that posted timeline??? How does one go about getting that updated?

Quote

I don't believe a, exaggerated word of Pycelle's public confession - that was rehearsed and Cersei preppred him to what exactly he was to say or it would be the dungeons for him. When the Septa declared inspection revealed Margaery was no virgin anymore, he said what he had been told to say to save his own skin, believing the Tyrells to be history and powerless. Kevan's POV in aDwD months later, with Pycelle and Mace together at a council meeting with Mace being convinced his daughter can prove her innocense at a normal trial shows that neither Kevan nor Mace consider Pycell's public statements in the throne room as damnable. And though Pycelle likes to have some bodyguards for those statements made months earlier and acts apologetic about saying those things in the throne room, Mace is not actually out to kill him. I'm pretty sure that Pycelle and Mace already talked things over in that time, and I don't think it's a secret to Mace or even Kevan what the "for" was about. I don't think those two men would otherwise be in the same room afterwards. We just are not privy to it, because Kevan is only a POV in the epilogue, and we otherwise only have Cersei's two chapters, while she's shut away in a cell and doesn't get back to the Red Keep at the end of her walk. 

 

For me, this is why I think Pycelle knew what Marg was doing, but he did not feel the need to tell Cersei straight away, or maybe at all unless provoked and prodded by her. Pycelle seemed more of loyal Tywin specific man, and now poor Tywin is dead by his own son (the one who shaved his precious beard), all the while poor Tywin's crazy daughter just ignores him, blames him for Tywin "smiling" when dead, shuts him up in councils, and promotes Qyburn, which is also against his suggestion. I think Pycelle was possibly considering an allegiance switch to Kevan specifically, and even working to get in the little queen's favor in the meantime. A sort of insurance bet for his future. I know he was asking for guards at the end of ADWD, but I think that was just because of Mace himself, who was pissed Pycelle squealed.