The Fate of Shireen TWoW

[Rubicante]

Well according to the big spoiler from "Game of Thrones Season 5 Episode 9 Behind the Scenes Commentary", Stannis will at some point in the books make the decision to sacrifice his daughter.  Although I have slowly come to accept that he could do this, I believe the circumstances will be completely different in the novel.

I've been contemplating how exactly this can occur in the books.  I believe the following three things need to occur for this to happen.

1. Stannis must directly meet up with Shireen and Melisandre again (there is no way he orders this command through raven).  The only way this can happen is if he either retreats to Castle Black or takes Winterfell.  I find a retreat difficult to believe considering how he appears to be "all in" with attacking the Bolton's according to the sample Theon chapter in TWoW.  Nonetheless, he could suffer heavy losses and retreat.

2. The circumstances must be much more extreme, and by this I mean an imminent others and wights invasion. 

3. Jon Snow must still be dead prior to the sacrifice.  If Jon Snow is resurrected, I don't think Stannis would see himself as Azor Ahai anymore and therefore would not carry out the sacrifice.

So here's what I think will happen.  Stannis will defeat the Frey army using the terrain to his advantage and with help from the Manderly's who will turn on the Frey's.  I do not know if he will take Winterfell (and how he would do it).  If he can't, he goes back to the Wall.  If he does, he will return to Wall afterwards.  At the Wall, he then witnesses the incoming Others and Wights army and realizes just how screwed they are.  He sacrifices Shireen with the belief that he will properly forge Lightbringer, which is the only thing that can defeat the army.  Jon is still dead at the wall at this point.  Not really sure what happens at this point.  Somehow Jon is resurrected and is taken south from the wall while still in a weak state.  Stannis attacks the Others and fails.  The Wall then falls.

Anyhow, I'm probably totally wrong.  What are your thoughts?  And feel free to criticize my idea.

[JonisHenryTudor]

Well... I have an idea, not one I would put much stock in, but here: 

 

I don't think Jon is dead for one. Shireen could be a tool (Martin) for Mel's downfall. In an attempt to save Jon, Mel could try and sacrifice shireen (she may not need Stannis' orders, after all she serves the god of Light, not Stannis). When it fails (because I don't think Jon is dead or that fire will be used in his "resurrection"), it could be Mel's downfall with Stannis. She could confuse Jon's temporary moment in Ghost (if it happens) as Jon being dead, and then tries to save him. The attempt fails...

But I do think Shireen dies. She may even offer herself to save her father?   

[aryagonnakill#2]

Did D&D really say that Stannis will make the decision?  I thought it was much more vague than that, where it could easily be Mel that does it without Stannis' order.

[The Giver]

Or that Mel sacrifices Shireen in the hopes of saving Stannis. Afterall, in the book she has just heard from the pink letter that Stannis is dead, and she believes him to be Azor Ahai. Maybe when she tries to save Stannis, she ends up saving Jon instead. (afterall, Stannis is not dead in the books).

[JonisHenryTudor]

32 minutes ago, The Giver said:

Or that Mel sacrifices Shireen in the hopes of saving Stannis. Afterall, in the book she has just heard from the pink letter that Stannis is dead, and she believes him to be Azor Ahai. Maybe when she tries to save Stannis, she ends up saving Jon instead. (afterall, Stannis is not dead in the books).

Yes, but doesn't Mel start to question her previous beliefs by that point? Maybe not entirely, but after "seeing only snow" (think that is right) she seems to waver a bit. 

 

Either way, I still think Mel does it with, or without, Stannis' consent. 

We know how disgusted Davos is with Lady Mel in the books and show, and particularly his disgust regarding human sacrifice. In the show, Davos is still at the Wall, so they played out the scene as they did. In the books, Davos is not there, so Mel doesn't have to contend with Davos. Stannis of course is not there, so Mel really has few obstacles. 

 

Perhaps we can see it this way. Take the show scene lift Mel and Shireen out of it, return them to the Wall, and instead of consulting Stannis; she consults her fires. This partially explains the diversion from the source material. Again I don't think Jon needs a resurrection, but I can see Mel responding to news of Stannis' death (as you say) by sacrificing Shireen; but I think the sacrifice will come to naught and Shireen will die in vain.  

[Rubicante]

On 3/28/2016 at 0:37 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Did D&D really say that Stannis will make the decision?  I thought it was much more vague than that, where it could easily be Mel that does it without Stannis' order.

I don't know if they directly said it, but something more along the lines "When George told us about this", and I heard this was further confirmed on the blu-ray commentary for season 5.  Immediately I was dismissive, but after watching Linda and Elio's video on "The Spoiler" I was convinced that the decision has to be Stannis', as much as I don't want to accept it.  Or maybe I'm just setting myself for the disappointment of this action by Stannis in advance so I won't throw the book across my living room when I read it.  I always hated the portrayal of the Stannis character on the HBO show, but I don't think I've ever been as angry at a television show as I was while I watched that scene. 

Anyhow, I tend to agree with what most people have already said.  Mel just found out Stannis, who she still thinks is Azor Ahai (although her fires are telling her differently), has been killed.  The sacrifice might be performed at the Wall in an attempt to bring Stannis back.  I don't think she would ever do the sacrifice without Stannis' approval, but that approval is irrelevant if she thinks he is dead.

I find the pink letter itself to be very confusing.  Apparently the sample Theon chapter in the Winds of Winter occurs BEFORE the pink letter chapter in ADWD.  Why would GRRM do this?

[JLE]

Shireen definitely can't be sacrificed without Stannis's direct order on the matter.

Which means that he has to actually beat the Boltons first, just to survive to meet her again.

Which in turn means that the scene must be part of the battle against the Others, rather than against the Boltons - meaning that Stannis is therefore unlikely to suffer huge desertions and loss of morale among his own forces as a result: it is, after all, a *human* army. Defecting to another human side of a conflict is possible: switching sides en masse to the Others is not.

I also am not convinced that Stannis will actually give the order. This is based on his own vision in the flames, in "A Storm of Swords", which he describes to Davos - of a king on fire, his crown burning him away to ashes. I honestly believe that it is Stannis himself who will die in fire, somehow - possibly taking the place of his daughter after setting up the sacrifice, maybe even getting as far as tying her to the stake.

After all, what could be more appropriate for the North, it's what the Northern Clans do in the winter after all: the parent giving their life so that the children can survive the winter and grow up? (It being apparently the custom for the older Northern folk to "go out hunting" and never be seen again, if food is scarce in the winter.) It's the only thing that makes any sense: if the world is to continue, it's the next generation that needs to survive, not this one. Stannis loses Shireen == Stannis loses his royalty because there will be no heir to his claim to the throne, no chance of a future heir, and therefore no point backing him: the ENTIRE reason for the war was over The Next Generation. Renly's claim was defunct from the start because he was incapable of providing one, although arrogant enough not to be able to see this fact. Daenerys may herself be the last of her line and incapable of providing another generation. Even Euron, who wants to take the throne by force, has sired only bastards for which even he has no respect, and has no wife - and certainly Daenerys will not marry him. Aegon may be an impostor but in any case I think is going to die - he's made his move too early, before he has his actual dragon (Daenerys) on-side, and as Tyrion points out when beating him at cyvasse, "your dragon was too far away to save you"... he's going to die, not by Daenerys's hand, and probably before ever meeting her, so the question of his parentage will never matter.

For better or worse, only the "Lannister / Baratheon" children, Jon Snow if he should be released from his Watch vows (and only death can do that), and Stannis's Shireen represent a chance of a "future generation" on the throne - and the Lannister children (a) are interlopers and (b) are doomed, if Maggy the Frog is to be believed, all three will die before their own mother Cersei: there is a better chance of one of Robert's bastards growing up to inherit something, even if it be only as simple as Edric inheriting Storm's End.

Also, mark my words on this: Greyscale. It's been built up over the last couple of books as this Big Horrible Incurable Disease which nobody ever recovers from, at best it "stops progressing". And Shireen has it, although it has apparently reached the "stopped" stage.

But at some point, somebody is actually going to get fully cured of it. One doesn't set up an Incurable Disease Of Doom in a world full of magic and miracles, without setting up a major plot point which consists of somebody actually getting better from it. Not cured as in "not getting any worse", cured as in "actually getting better, and making a full recovery" like that moment near the end of "Ben Hur" where it's revealed that the two ladies have been cured of leprosy and their faces are no longer marked by the disease... and if she is not sacrificed, I would say there's a good chance of Shireen, if she survives, being a prime candidate for the unlikely recipient of a cure... which in turn makes her the Miracle Kid and suddenly gives her own supporters something to shout about her.

[Hodor's Aunt]

If Shireen will die as a sacrifice it could be Selyse giving the orders. She is fanatic enough to do it.

Another possibilty would be that there is a fight between the Queen's men and the Wildlings after the death of Patrek or for some other reason. Val has called for her death already. So the story could unfold differently from the show with no sacrifice at all.

Shireen herself had forshadowed something very different.

I had bad dreams. About the dragons. They were coming to eat me.

So maybe we have to wait for Dany to arrive.

[Kyll.Ing.]

Plot twist: Shireen burns herself.

[aFeastForDragons]

D and D didn't say outright that Stannis does it,  they said something along the lines of "When George told us about this". 

 

Also George hadn't even wrote that chapter yet when the scene had aired on TV so that really changes things up since George has said he already wrote The Battle of Ice chapters years before ADWD was released. That must mean IF Stannis burns her then he survived the Battle of Winterfell(disproving the Pink Letter) and somehow meets up again with Mel & co(which is very unlike George) very late into TWOW.

 

We know Mel is involved but the logistics of Stannis being there doesn't ad up. 

[Tianzi]

OR they were lying about it. I mean, making a smokescreen to not spoil the books is actually a merciful thing.

Book!Stannis is much mentally stable than his counterpart and not pathetic, I can't see him doing the same thing. Only in, as you've already said 'Others banging to the door' scenario. I can, however, see Mel or Selyse taking initiative here.

[aFeastForDragons]

They can say and do whatever they want. George is under contract not to speak out about the show, we learned that back in S2 when he got more and more vocal with his complaints but abruptly stopped and now avoids any questions or gives 2 word answers. The show will end before TWOW is out so it won't matter anymore. They finished their version of the story first.

 

Shireen, Mel and Selyse have to meet back up with Stannis for it to happen with him there and that is unrealistic on so many levels given the state of Stannis's army, Pink Letter, pending slaughter at Castle Black and travelling 700 miles in several feet of snow.

[Orangeblood]

This doesn't quite square with the show (though the show doesn't do Azor Ahai), but what if Jon getting raised from the dead is an accident caused by Shireen's sacrifice?

Maybe Mel promises that burning Shireen will bring Azor Ahai forth completely...and then Jon wakes up though is changed somehow.

George likes unintended consequences and only death may pay for life.

What do you all think?

[The Drunkard]

I used to think that. Shireen dreams about a dragon coming to eat her (which would be Jon, in this case), and we know Melisandre is worried about Stannis and can't see him in the flames (from her POV), so she may have believed the Pink Letter and taken drastic action to resurrect Azor Ahai, inadvertently resurrecting Jon. (But a sacrifice wasn't needed to resurrect Beric after any of his deaths, and wasn't required for Catelyn, so I can't see why it would be required for Jon)

On 3/27/2016 at 10:47 AM, Rubicante said:

Anyhow, I'm probably totally wrong.  What are your thoughts?  And feel free to criticize my idea.

I mostly agree with you. His story seems to be headed that way, with him at the end of ASOS accepting that he's Azor Ahai, seemingly deciding that the needs of the many outweighs the needs of one, and then finally heading north to fight "the foe [he] was born to fight". Though Edric was taken from him he still has Shireen, and if he's faced with a similar but more extreme scenario (like the Others overrunning the Wall or w/e) I see him making the same decision.

[JLE]

Like I said - I think it will be Stannis, not Shireen, that goes into the fire.

And, in doing so, does right what the original Azor Ahai did wrong, by virtue of misunderstanding the choice he was faced with: not a two-way choice, "the world, or what you love most: pick one", but a THREE way choice: "Yourself, what you love most, the world: pick two".

[Stannis is the man....nis]

I just don't know even by D&D standards having Stannis burn Shireen when he doesn't in the books is over the top petty

[JLE]

I think George originally intended to have Stannis burn Shireen - and, perhaps, has been sticking in his head to that original intention even as the characters actually grew away from that possibility. It would work with Book 2 Stannis - and indeed possibly most of Book 3 Stannis. But Book 5 Stannis is moving away from that mentality.

And now he may be faced with having to abandon it - the "twist" that he's talked about meaning that Stannis will do something *else* instead, that many people (including, evidently, the show writers) think is totally out of character for him, or shocking, but is in fact growing from where his character has gone.

Something that won't be a simple matter of "No, I won't do this, and that's that", but doing something else instead, that has major "shock value". Not necessarily evil, not necessarily good, but shock value that *isn't* the shock-value of burning Shireen.

I can't actually see any other character who is "dead in the show, but still alive in the books" that actually has even the potential for any kind of twist.. That is to say, I can think of a couple of other characters capable of an action or two that would be a major plot twist, but most of them don't fall into the "dead in the show but not in the books" category.

Of course, if "The Plot Twist" is not done *by* someone who's dead in the show but alive in the books, but involves events that are done by someone else (alive in both show and books) that tangentially involve a dead-in-the-show character, this opens the field up a lot more.

[aFeastForDragons]

George re-writes the ending with Stannis on the throne!

On 8 April 2016 at 4:02 AM, Stannis is the man....nis said:

I just don't know even by D&D standards having Stannis burn Shireen when he doesn't in the books is over the top petty

 

We won't know until we have the book in our hands but I can tell you this forum will explode when we find out what really happens and how it happens. 

[Gannicus]

For the record, I don't think Stannis orders Shireen to be sacrificed. D&D did implicitly say this, but they don't explicitly say Stannis. And who the heck knows where George Martin takes it?

But if he does there are a few things that need to happen.

1. Stannis must live up to a point where this becomes possible. Which means the pink letter is bogus.

2. They need to meet up. Stannis is not retreating. So chances are they would all have to rendezvous in Winterfell after the battle. Which means more than likely mean Stannis wins the battle and the wall itself has fallen.  Survivors rush to huddle in their last sanctuary, Winterfell.

3. Things need to be beyond desperate. They need to be hopeless. In other words the man who held out during the siege of Storms End for a year is not going to burn his daughter to melt snow. The survivors will need to be surrounded by White Walkers and everyone will be facing imminent death. 

 

What was so frustrating about this scene in the show was that they made it seem like he sacrificed her to win a measly battle on his quest for the crown. 

[messem]

On 13.4.2016 at 5:05 AM, Gannicus said:

1. Stannis must live up to a point where this becomes possible. Which means the pink letter is bogus.

2. They need to meet up. 

3. Things need to be beyond desperate.

I agree (mostly) and come to another conclusion.

• Stannis loses the battle of ice.
• A beaten Stannis withdraws with a small force to Castle Black. Meanwhile Ramsay assumes Stannis is dead and writes the pink letter.
• Stannis arrives at Castle Black and Mel R'hllor expects the greatest sacrifice.
• Stannis burns Shireen.
• Jon awakes. Stannis might become Lord Commander.

As a long time Stannis defender I still hope I'm wrong but that might be possible.