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The Fate of Shireen TWoW


Rubicante

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8 hours ago, Ruhail said:

He said in a later interview with IGN that the character was killed in S5 which narrows it down alot. So thats Barristan, Myrcella, Mance and Stannis from what i can remember

So more like a 25% chance at being Stannis and not 55%. Still very interesting however.

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23 minutes ago, sifth said:

So more like a 25% chance at being Stannis and not 55%. Still very interesting however.

YeH i got carried away with that percentage haha <_<

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I think Barristan's unlikely because he is, given his way of thinking and his whole life, nothing if not predictable. He's a warrior, for truth, justice and loyalty: he will live that way and die that way. In his case, although I don't believe in him simply being murdered by street assassins, I would bet that "he dies in Meereen, fairly soon" is a likely end. Whether it's death by Victarion, or dragon, or enemy action. Meereen is falling apart worse than Westeros right now in Dany's absence, she won't be back for some time, and he's not the kind of person to be a faction leader.

I also can't see it being Myrcella because she's still too young - both too young to do much in the way of acting, and too young to *be* predictable enough that anything she does would be a particularly shocking surprise if she were to gain the capability to do much. However she's mainly, at this stage, a pawn, not a player: she is acted upon, not acting. The same is also true of Shireen who is even younger.

Mance is a possibility but didn't he die in a previous series of the show, not series 5? If he is currently Ramsay's captive at Winterfell, he's in no position to do much, but if he should escape (or cut a deal with Ramsay) (or have never been taken prisoner in the first place), then he could still produce a surprise. But I'm not sure what it would be, since neither "siding with Jon" nor "opposing Jon by siding with the Boltons" would be particularly surprising: in any case he seems to have some grudging respect for Jon which I think is genuine. What CAN he do that would actually be a surprise? Ideas please on a postcard. Although maybe he, rather than a Northern lord, might be the one to go in search of Davos and Rickon, steal Rickon from Davos and turn him over to Ramsay - in which case Show Series 6 will have predicted GRRM's "mega twist", since we've never yet seen any sign that Mance cares enough about Northern lords to take sides between them (although his rationale for doing so could be pro-Ramsay, or it could be a case of removing an obstacle from Jon's path in a way that Jon could never do, and a way that would force the North and Wildlings to unite against the Boltons for long enough to remain united against the Others: with the understanding that Jon is the only person present that might be capable of holding such an alliance, and the idea of a child-King in the North who could overrule Jon, or a council ruling in the name of said child-king who could do the same, would be a danger to everybody.)

Selyse might be someone who pulls something completely out of left-field: we haven't seen much of her but we know she's more of a religious fanatic than her husband. And given that she is there, and he isn't, she may be the one to sacrifice Shireen. But then, "sacrificing Shireen" has already been done by the show and *somebody* doing it would no longer be a surprise in the books. Still, she might pull something especially if she abandons her faith and turns against Melisandre.

My money's still on Stannis doing something in-book that he would never have done in-show, that is in some way more radically game-changing (even if not necessarily more evil - indeed it may be LESS evil) than what he has done in the show.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/2/2016 at 8:22 AM, JLE said:

And that's why I wonder if the twist will be that he sacrifices himself instead of her - whether out of a belief that it will do more good, or out of a despairing belief that if the world requires him to murder his daughter, it is not a world worth fighting or living for.

Again, it would wreck all the above "chess" or "cyvasse" imagery - that the survival of the king equals the survival of the realm, your own king (which, in the game *as* a king, is "oneself") is the one piece you cannot sacrifice - and, as such, upset the Game in a way that very little else could.

I can't imagine a scenario where he feels that necessary, given his touchstone for magical things is Melisandre and her Azor Ahai prophecy, and that requires the hero to kill someone he loves rather than himself. He's also not suicidal or a quitter, and he's probably the only person who would put his duty ahead of what he loves, so I don't see him giving up and deciding it's not worth it.

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However there IS a possibility that if he is convinced that a sacrifice of royal blood is needed, then a king is a more powerful one than a child-princess. The king who gave his life to save the realm and what he loved most, rather than give what he loved most to save the realm and his own life? Plausible, if he comes to think it his duty to put *himself* on the line.

As I mentioned before: Book Stannis has seen what Show Stannis has not: the vision in the fire, that he related to Davos, of a king burning away to ashes. A *king*. Not a child princess. I believe Stannis hopes this is a warning - "his search for the crown will destroy him" - but fears that it may be a prophecy. If he actually thinks to take it literally... then, an actual king, not a child princess, will go into the fire.

Book Stannis has also learned what Show Stannis has not, from the Mountain Clans: sometimes the best thing the old can do is sacrifice themselves for the next generation to survive. The Mountain Clan elders are glad to be given a chance to go out fighting rather than die of cold alone in the snow or "go out hunting" and never come back.

So if he does it, it'll be because he's convinced that Melisandre has the right idea but the wrong details. And, again, Book Stannis unlike Show Stannis is skeptical enough to potentially come to that conclusion.

I may well be wrong but I hope I'm right because I think it would make a great story.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Stannis will do the deed unfortunately. It has been heavily foreshadowed by the repeated mentions of Nissa Nissa and Azor Ahai along with the steady escalation of sacrificial burnings to R'hllor. One could draw an straight, escalating line from the burning of the seven in the prologue of ACOK to the burning of captives in ADWD until the death of Shireen in TWOW. Stannis will win the battle for Winterfell, meanwhile the new commander of the Nights Watch will throw out Stannis's family and queensmen from the Wall and they will join him in Winterfell. Then, at the moment of Stannis's great victory, Euron will blow the horn of winter and knock down the wall. The Others and their undead army will stream south. Mel will tell Stannis that he must sacrifice his daughter to raise a stone dragon in Winterfell. Should every child in Westeros die or should his child die? Given that impossible choice Stannis, believing he is doing the just thing, will burn his only child to death.....and fail to raise the dragon. It's a true tragedy and Stannis will break because of it. 

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Something like that would make sense rather than the hamfisted trainwreck we got on the show to get some sunny weather. 

 

I hope George has something really clever up his sleeve. It would need to be an end of the world situation to work and he would really need to build it up. This is the man who held Storm's End for a year because Robert told him to. To burn his daughter and only heir he would have to be truly desperate with no other possible options. That could only mean White Walkers. 

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I have always thought that it will be Selyse who panics and orders Shireen's death.  She is far more devout than Stannis, and stupid to boot.  I think dire news from Winterfell will cause Selyse to act rashly, perhaps without Mel's permission.  

Mix in a little wishful thinking on my part because I do not WANT Stannis or Mel to be responsible.   

I hate Queen Floppy Ears anyway, so let her be the child killer.  

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  • 5 months later...
On 3/29/2016 at 11:52 PM, Rubicante said:

I don't know if they directly said it, but something more along the lines "When George told us about this", and I heard this was further confirmed on the blu-ray commentary for season 5.  Immediately I was dismissive, but after watching Linda and Elio's video on "The Spoiler" I was convinced that the decision has to be Stannis', as much as I don't want to accept it.  Or maybe I'm just setting myself for the disappointment of this action by Stannis in advance so I won't throw the book across my living room when I read it.  I always hated the portrayal of the Stannis character on the HBO show, but I don't think I've ever been as angry at a television show as I was while I watched that scene. 

Anyhow, I tend to agree with what most people have already said.  Mel just found out Stannis, who she still thinks is Azor Ahai (although her fires are telling her differently), has been killed.  The sacrifice might be performed at the Wall in an attempt to bring Stannis back.  I don't think she would ever do the sacrifice without Stannis' approval, but that approval is irrelevant if she thinks he is dead.

I find the pink letter itself to be very confusing.  Apparently the sample Theon chapter in the Winds of Winter occurs BEFORE the pink letter chapter in ADWD.  Why would GRRM do this?

Doing a late day resurrection for this request here, but, do you know where you heard this info that the Theon/Sacrifice chapter happens before the PL???? Much appreciated as it has come up again, and I too read it somewhere, but now cannot find it.

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On 1/2/2017 at 4:57 PM, The Fattest Leech said:

Doing a late day resurrection for this request here, but, do you know where you heard this info that the Theon/Sacrifice chapter happens before the PL???? Much appreciated as it has come up again, and I too read it somewhere, but now cannot find it.

It probably does as Theon is getting "ridiculed" by Stannis when the message arrives that the gate of Winterfell opened, which meands forces are headed out to him in force and he knows that the Boltons have a map to his location, however, Stannis now has the Karstark leaders as hostages and their men will fight for him, not turn on him and he has almost 3 days to set a trap for the Boltons.

Rambling here but 7 days of battle is in the pink letter but they are located 3 days away from each other, 3 to ride there and back and 1 to fight. Yeah, the pink letter comes after a battle I would guess.

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On 7/5/2016 at 8:14 AM, aFeastForDragons said:

Something like that would make sense rather than the hamfisted trainwreck we got on the show to get some sunny weather. 

 

I hope George has something really clever up his sleeve. It would need to be an end of the world situation to work and he would really need to build it up. This is the man who held Storm's End for a year because Robert told him to. To burn his daughter and only heir he would have to be truly desperate with no other possible options. That could only mean White Walkers. 

This. I think the show really dropped the ball as D&D wanted to end Stannis's arc by the end of the season and have Jon Snow be the one who defeats Ramsey. This does make sense for the show but the really needed to find a better reason than the weather or the at least needed a bit more time to get the audience to understand how dire Stannis's situation was at the time although even then it ends up that he torched his daughter for better weather. If nothing else Stephen Dillane is an incredible actor who was able to do right by the character rather consistently even though the writing for Stannis's storyline was often inconsistent.  They also cast the cutest little girl to play Shireen I thought she was just great. 

Anyway, yes I think the "stone dragons" Shireen had nightmares about were not referencing Dragonstone at all but that there are dragon eggs deep below Winterfell. I have always assumed that Winterfell was meant to be command HQ for the greatest force multiplier in Westeros, the Wall.

I also think Mance wanted back in Winterfell for some reason as well...maybe he thinks the horn of winter is kept in Winterfell. He is number 2 on my list of possible horn of winter horn blowers fwiw. 

 

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Her mother in the books would do it or maybe Mel would take it upon herself to do it anyway. I cannot see Stannis doing such a thing, just can't. Besides, they think Stannis is dead, Jon comments that he should have spoken to Selyse before reading the letter out loud or even gone to Mel. Things are going to be out of his control for the near future anyway.

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12 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Her mother in the books would do it or maybe Mel would take it upon herself to do it anyway. I cannot see Stannis doing such a thing, just can't. Besides, they think Stannis is dead, Jon comments that he should have spoken to Selyse before reading the letter out loud or even gone to Mel. Things are going to be out of his control for the near future anyway.

I strongly disagree. We know for a fact that he was seriously considering burning Edric Storm as that's the entire reason Davos sends Storm away behind Stannis's back. Stannis Baratheon if nothing else a just man and what does Vary's say about just men in general and Stannis in specific, "There is nothing so terrifying than a truly just man." From Stannis's point of view if someone else's child was worth sacrificing in order to save the rest of the children of Westeros how could he not do the same if the child in question is his? He would see that as failing to do his duty. Assume the wall comes down and the nightmare of nightmares are pouring forth, unstoppable and looking to destroy all light and life. If he believes sacrificing his daughter is the only thing that can save humanity how can he not do it and still be the man he thinks he is? I'm not defending it and I think it will fail as Stannis is not Azor Ahai reborn but I do think it's what the character we have been reading about for five large books would do.

On a Doylist level GRRM has been slow walking Stannis to this choice from the prologue of ACOK. Thematically we have not been reading a story arc in which Selyse or Mel doing it would make any narrative sense. In fact I think GRRM included the Mel chapter as push back against the interpretation that she is a faking her faith or some troupe like evil seductress and that's not what she is. She is telling a lot of little lies as she thinks that is the best way to serve her god and defeat the ultimate evil. GRRM is playing off of the sexy witch manipulator troupe and not giving us yet another one. I'm not saying she is a good person but that she has a lot in common with someone like Vary's. The are both staunch utilitarians who believe they are doing terrible things for the greater good. Mel is a true believer in the Lord of Light and the Azor Ahai myth is not about sacrifice for kings blood it is about plunging a sword into the only person you love in order to prove you are willing to do anything to save the day and in return you are rewarded with a super weapon to do just that. 

I would also say that our revulsion at the idea of Stannis murdering his own child as a sacrifice is based on the fact that in our world we know sacrificing to gods is a worthless gesture but readers, and Stannis, have seen things that at least suggest it works, fire and blood and all, which is further evidence this will be what Stannis chooses to do. 

I hope I don't sound as if I am justifying this at all as I am not. It's horrific and it will end in failure and the destruction of Stannis's family and probably Stannis himself  as that bit about him being like iron and will break before he bends will come into play and this will break him. 

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1 hour ago, Unknownfinger said:

I strongly disagree. We know for a fact that he was seriously considering burning Edric Storm as that's the entire reason Davos sends Storm away behind Stannis's back. Stannis Baratheon if nothing else a just man and what does Vary's say about just men in general and Stannis in specific, "There is nothing so terrifying than a truly just man." From Stannis's point of view if someone else's child was worth sacrificing in order to save the rest of the children of Westeros how could he not do the same if the child in question is his? He would see that as failing to do his duty. Assume the wall comes down and the nightmare of nightmares are pouring forth, unstoppable and looking to destroy all light and life. If he believes sacrificing his daughter is the only thing that can save humanity how can he not do it and still be the man he thinks he is? I'm not defending it and I think it will fail as Stannis is not Azor Ahai reborn but I do think it's what the character we have been reading about for five large books would do.

On a Doylist level GRRM has been slow walking Stannis to this choice from the prologue of ACOK. Thematically we have not been reading a story arc in which Selyse or Mel doing it would make any narrative sense. In fact I think GRRM included the Mel chapter as push back against the interpretation that she is a faking her faith or some troupe like evil seductress and that's not what she is. She is telling a lot of little lies as she thinks that is the best way to serve her god and defeat the ultimate evil. GRRM is playing off of the sexy witch manipulator troupe and not giving us yet another one. I'm not saying she is a good person but that she has a lot in common with someone like Vary's. The are both staunch utilitarians who believe they are doing terrible things for the greater good. Mel is a true believer in the Lord of Light and the Azor Ahai myth is not about sacrifice for kings blood it is about plunging a sword into the only person you love in order to prove you are willing to do anything to save the day and in return you are rewarded with a super weapon to do just that. 

I would also say that our revulsion at the idea of Stannis murdering his own child as a sacrifice is based on the fact that in our world we know sacrificing to gods is a worthless gesture but readers, and Stannis, have seen things that at least suggest it works, fire and blood and all, which is further evidence this will be what Stannis chooses to do. 

I hope I don't sound as if I am justifying this at all as I am not. It's horrific and it will end in failure and the destruction of Stannis's family and probably Stannis himself  as that bit about him being like iron and will break before he bends will come into play and this will break him. 

Stannis is different than a just man, he is an obsessed man. Ned Stark was a truly just man. Stannis though, it seems really out there as he seems to have a lot on his hands at the moment and it strikes me that  his faith in Rhilor may not be as fervent as it once was. I do not doubt she burns but i think it most likely by her mother or Mel's command.

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18 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Stannis is different than a just man, he is an obsessed man. Ned Stark was a truly just man. Stannis though, it seems really out there as he seems to have a lot on his hands at the moment and it strikes me that  his faith in Rhilor may not be as fervent as it once was. I do not doubt she burns but i think it most likely by her mother or Mel's command.

Agreed. I don't think Stannis will ever see his family again in the books. I don't see him defeating the Boltons, either. The Freys, yes, but not all of the forces inside Winterfell.

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7 minutes ago, AlienCarnivore said:

Agreed. I don't think Stannis will ever see his family again in the books. I don't see him defeating the Boltons, either. The Freys, yes, but not all of the forces inside Winterfell.

Again, what I would ask is that how does fit thematically in what we have read both in general and in specific in ASOIAF. I mean how does the Nissa Nissa fit in then if someone other than Stannis does the deed? We have been told that myth over and over and over again..why? Stannis ain't someone you betray lightly as Davos has told as again and again. Davos only gets away with it as Stannis knows how unique and valuable a truly loyal man is. If Selyse were ever to murder Stannis's only daughter she knows full well she will die as wives are easy to come by. I would also say that unlike show Selyse book Selyse sucks but she is actually very caring fore her daughter it does fly with me that she would kill her only child. Once again Mel wouldn't kill Stannis's daughter as she is a Lord of Light fanatic and there is little to no chance she would buy the idea of killing Shireen would stop the others. She would 100% buy the fact that Stannis taking the knowing decision to kill the only person he loves will be following in Azor Ahai's footsteps. 

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11 hours ago, Unknownfinger said:

Again, what I would ask is that how does fit thematically in what we have read both in general and in specific in ASOIAF. I mean how does the Nissa Nissa fit in then if someone other than Stannis does the deed? We have been told that myth over and over and over again..why? Stannis ain't someone you betray lightly as Davos has told as again and again. Davos only gets away with it as Stannis knows how unique and valuable a truly loyal man is. If Selyse were ever to murder Stannis's only daughter she knows full well she will die as wives are easy to come by. I would also say that unlike show Selyse book Selyse sucks but she is actually very caring fore her daughter it does fly with me that she would kill her only child. Once again Mel wouldn't kill Stannis's daughter as she is a Lord of Light fanatic and there is little to no chance she would buy the idea of killing Shireen would stop the others. She would 100% buy the fact that Stannis taking the knowing decision to kill the only person he loves will be following in Azor Ahai's footsteps. 

Eh, I'm not so sure. I would LIKE it if Stannis successfully captured Winterfell and put Hosteen Frey, Hother Umber, and the Boltons to death, because he's probably my favorite non-POV character, but if he takes the North, then there won't be much for Jon to do when he's no doubt resurrected because there would be no conflict in the North besides the impending attack from the Others, and we still have more Bran chapters to go before that, I'm assuming. 

God, I really want this damned book already :(

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

At the top of the steps Davos heard a soft jingle of bells that could only herald Patchface. The princess's fool was waiting outside the maester's door for her like a faithful hound. Dough-soft and slump-shouldered, his broad face tattooed in a motley pattern of red and green squares, Patchface wore a helm made of a rack of deer antlers strapped to a tin bucket. A dozen bells hung from the tines and rang when he moved . . . which meant constantly, since the fool seldom stood still. He jingled and jangled his way everywhere he went; small wonder that Pylos had exiled him from Shireen's lessons. "Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish," the fool muttered at Davos. He bobbed his head, and his bells clanged and chimed and sang. "I know, I know, oh oh oh."

Davos V, Storm 54

Melisandre is old...

Quote

... Strange voices called to her from days long past.

...

... Melisandre had practiced her art for years beyond count, and she had paid the price.

Melisandre, Dance 31

Shireen is young...

Quote

Her name was Shireen. She would be ten on her next name day, and she was the saddest child that Maester Cressen had ever known.

Prologue, Clash

Shireen wants king’s blood...

Quote

Melisandre moved closer. "Save them, sire. Let me wake the stone dragons. Three is three. Give me the boy."

...

... He turned back to Melisandre. "You swear there is no other way? Swear it on your life, for I promise, you shall die by inches if you lie."

... Melisandre went to him, her red lips parted, her ruby throbbing. "Give me this boy," she whispered, "and I will give you your kingdom."

"He can't," said Davos. "Edric Storm is gone."

Davos VI, Storm 63

Shireen has king’s blood, and she is a dead girl...

Quote

"If Stannis wins his war, Shireen will stand as heir to the Iron Throne."

"Then I pity your Seven Kingdoms."

"The maesters say greyscale is not—"

"The maesters may believe what they wish. Ask a woods witch if you would know the truth. The grey death sleeps, only to wake again. The child is not clean! "

"She seems a sweet girl. You cannot know—"

"I can. You know nothing, Jon Snow." Val seized his arm. "I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Melisandre cannot burn Edric Storm, but she is going to burn Shireen with Selyse’s blessing, since they will both be desperate having seen Jon Snow betrayed and wounded or dead, and having come to believe that Ramsay has defeated and killed Stannis.

And the old fish will eat the young fish. Poor Shireen.

Stannis is gonna be pissed. 

Wouldn't this be sweet...

Quote

“They will not.” Melisandre’s voice was soft. “I am sorry, Your Grace. This is not an end. More false kings will soon rise to take up the crowns of those who’ve died.” “More?”Stannis looked as though he would gladly have throttled her.

But it's gonna be the other way round. Compare this...

Quote

“More usurpers? More traitors?” “I have seen it in the flames.” Queen Selyse went to the king’s side. “The Lord of Light sent Melisandre to guide you to your glory. Heed her, I beg you. R’hllor’s holy flames do not lie.”

To this...

Quote

The black priest bowed his head. “There is no need. The Lord of Light has shown me your worth, lord Captain. Every night in my fires I glimpse the glory that awaits you.

And recall this...

Quote

"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning... burning Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash.Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means?"

Is it possible that the fate of Serala, the Lace Serpent of Duskendale foreshadows the fate of Melisandre?

Quote

The queen's men might remain fervent followers of the Lord of Light, but the lesser folk of Dragonstone were drifting back to the gods they'd known all their lives. They said Stannis was ensorceled, that Melisandre had turned him away from the Seven to bow before some demon out of shadow, and . . . worst sin of all . . . that she and her god had failed him. And there were knights and lordlings who felt the same.

Davos V, Storm 54

Quote

"In Duskendale they love Lord Denys still, despite the woe he brought them. 'Tis Lady Serala that they blame, his Myrish wife. The Lace Serpent, she is called. ... The Lace Serpent filled her husband's ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive. ...

... "Once Lord Denys lost his hostage, he opened his gates and ended his defiance rather than let Lord Tywin take the town. He bent the knee and begged for mercy, but the king was not of a forgiving mind. Lord Denys lost his head, as did his brothers and his sister, uncles, cousins, all the lordly Darklyns. The Lace Serpent was burned alive, poor woman, though her tongue was torn out first, and her female parts, with which it was said that she had enslaved her lord. Half of Duskendale will still tell you that Aerys was too kind to her."

Brienne II, Feast 9

I suppose being burned alive would be a fitting end for Melisandre.

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/\Yes/\ to above.

I agree with all of this. You must be in my head. Please do some straightening up while you are browsing.

A few housekeeping things that I wonder about is there will probably be chaos at CB in the moments after the mutiny stabbings. I am sure the wildlings, with Tormund at the lead?, will start lassoing up some mutineers to hang their entrails from a tree, so where does Jon's body go, and with whom??? I have my own ideas, but I like asking around for other perspectives.

Honestly, it never made sense to me that so many posters think Stannis will burn Shireen when he is a month (?) away in the middle of a blizzard deep enough to freeze a man's dragonstones, and Stannis wants Shireen on the throne in his stead in the event he doesn't make it. Stannis was never the religious fanatic, Selyse is, and Mel seems to be as well. And it is clear, as you pointed out, that Stannis really seems to be rethinking the Rahloo thingy.

So the Lace Serpant was claimed as being responsible for bringin' down the house (sadly, not in the party town way), and if Mel burns Shireen, then you can see the parallel to ending Stannis' line. George said Mel acts in her own interest first, sooo....

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