Westeros vs. Dothraki (spoilers probable)

[Toddrick Snow]

A few days ago at work, some co-workers and I debated the "what if" of Daenerys bringing the Dothraki to Westeros and their chances of succeeding.  Between the four of us, we were split down the middle two vs. two.  So I bring the tiebreaker to you all.  The educated of the educated when it comes to ASOIAF.  The what if we discussed is as follows:

In Essos:

Daenerys marries Drogo

Viserys still is given his "crown"

Drogo never is wounded and poisoned

The dragons are still hatched, however are small

In Westeros:

Joffrey is King

Ned is still intact

 

With the dragons still hatchlings, this makes it more of the Dothraki vs. Westeros armies.  So what says you?  How does the invasion play out?  You be the judge!

[watcher of the night]

I think that against a united westeros they have a snowballs chance in hell. I do not think it would be feasible to ship more than 20-25k dothraki with horses (it could be even less). Compared to this just the Reach can field an army of 80k (or more).

Now, during a civilwar or shortly after it, fighting the weakened kingdoms one by one, that is a different issue.

Also the outcome of any given fight depends on a number of factors: army size, quality of the troops,  terrain, leadership; it is impossible to make meaningful predictions without the knowledge of these factors.

[Maester of Valyria]

Leaving aside the logistics of convincing, transporting and provisioning the Dothraki, nothing unites old foes faster than a common enemy. I also doubt that the Dothraki would do well with Westeros' climate. Assuming the Westerosi don't do something stupid like meet them on an open field, they can just sit back and let the invaders' ill-discipline tear the khalasar apart.

[WSmith84]

The Dothraki are a joke, militarily speaking. They don't wear armour. I'll repeat that. They. Don't. Wear. Armour. That makes them incredibly easy to kill with arrowfire. Let's break it down.

Weapons

Dothraki use whips, bows and curved swords. They have no penetrating weapons like pikes, spears etc. and no heavy weapons like maces, morningstars etc. Their bow range is shorter, due to firing from horseback, than that of a Westerosi army.

Armour

Dothraki have none. Westerosi armies have plenty, of varying quality. No, Westerosi armies are not mostly made up of untrained peasants with farming tools. They're mostly semi-professional soldiers with at least some armour and proper weapons.

Leadership and tactics

Dothraki seem to have one tactic: charge. They don't seem to be the sort to do drills and learn how to fight in formation and whatnot. Westerosi armies train to fight in formation, they have commanders capable of executing complex military strategies and they have a much greater range of troop type. A Khalasar is led by a Khal and when he falls, chaos ensues as other Dothraki vie to become Khal themselves. When a Westerosi leader falls, there is usually an obvious choice to follow next. If Ned falls in battle, his men would probably rally to Robb, or Roose Bolton or Rickard Karstark etc.

The Westerosi armies are just superior in every way. And that's allowing for the Dothraki to just teleport their army across, because transporting that many men and horses across the Narrow Sea sounds logistically impossible.

[daccu65]

My humble opinion, the Dothraki aren't going to beat a unified Westeros...on Westeros.  They are a highly specialized people, who thrive, live and fight on the vast grassland of the Dothraki sea.  If you take a Westeros army onto the Dothraki Sea, you're going to be in trouble because the Dothraki live and thrive there...it's their home turf and they don't have to worry about supplies, recon, etc.  The heavy horses that the Westeros knights favor probably wouldn't thrive on a grain-less diet, while the lighter Dothraki mounts will handle a diet of grass just fine.  With no supplies of coal, or even charcoal, maintaining the iron weapons and armor is going to be difficult.  In addition the Westerosi armor, so useful in a battle, is going to overheat the soldiers during the long marches between battles.

Once in Westeros, you're on the Westerosi's home turf.  Knights use heavy warhorses because the climate/flora will sustain the large and specialized creatures.  There are plenty of villages, with blacksmiths, carpenters and other craftsmen to maintain your weapons.  You know the area, so you know where the mobility traps, such as bogs and wide rivers, are located.  The cooler temperatures, combined with shorter distances between key-points, means that your armor isn't as much of a hindrance here...and boy is it invaluable when the arrows and blades start to fly! 

I'll admit that the Dothraki are probably their world's greatest light cavalry.  The only problem is that light cavalry's best asset is speed.  On the vast, open Dothraki sea, this speed is decisive...which is why the Dothraki lifestyle dominates there.  In Westros, they're at a considerable disadvantage. 

[lordstewie]

for me there are three key points to consider
1 strategy: the Dothraki are wild riders who make the speed its main force used in an arid climate, whose only strategy is a wild charge.
open field can definitely have some successes against less mobile troops.
the westerosi have various kinds of troops that change due to the geographical diversity of the realms and have different strategies that surely would pose a problem the Dothraki.
Therefore, I find it incredible success of nomadic horsemen compared to the armies more organized 7k

2 rules:
The Dothraki have none
the armies of 7k is formed by professionals who do not, are certainly more disciplined
This could explain the defeat suffered by the Dothraki against unsullied in
qohor
the first would be loaded with his head, unable to minimally disrupt their iron discipline

there is a further aspect less analyzed the technology.
Westeros is definitely more advanced than the nomadic civilization Essos
armor, various weapons, siege engines and other things which are totally absent in the way of fighting the Dothraki
I also believe that we can say that the two armies also use different techniques because they are similar to two different eras of the past the 7k are in a Renaissance dotraki resemble the peoples such as the Huns of nearly a thousand years before

 

 

[norwaywolf123]

They would probably sink in a Storm

[Trigger Warning]

They'd get krumped by the Westerosi if they even managed to survive the various logistical nightmares, they're a skin deep amalgamation of generic steppe peoples with none of the meat that made their real world counterparts they're so often likened to actually successful. 

They're totally just as deadly as the Mongols though.

[1000th Lord Commander]

4 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

They'd get krumped by the Westerosi if they even managed to survive the various logistical nightmares, they're a skin deep amalgamation of generic steppe peoples with none of the meat that made their real world counterparts they're so often likened to actually successful. 

They're totally just as deadly as the Mongols though.

Given that the Mongols invaded Europe quite successfully, we can't write off the Dothraki. However, I see a problem here that the Mongols didn't have to contend with

Ships as supply lines

given the Dothraki aversion to salt water, it is difficult to see how this would work in the event of invasion. They also lack the Mongol attitude for absorbing good ideas and people, which limits them to being unable to adapt to newer situations. It was the Mongols ability to absorb good ideas that led them to develop seige engines, a must for attacking Westeros

Given the distance they have to traverse, a surprise attack by Drogo is out of the question.

We, speaking as ominescient gods, can defend Westeros quite easily. Speaking for myself, I'd mobilise all armies, stationing them in solid castles, and bring in as many smallfolk and supplies behind walls as possible. Send the Redwyne fleet and the ironborn around Dorne to destroy any Dotraki reinforcements. Starve any landing party, put archers on every castle wall and pepper them with arrows until they are beaten and demoralised, then smash them with overwhelming force.

But the Dothraki are not without advantages here. Varys being on the Dothaki side is worth a few thousand men right there. More to the point, if the Dothraki can face the Westerosi armies piecemeal, they can win. Most Westerosi high command would simply rally what forces they have, and attack with little thought as to waiting for others. Furthermore, if the Dothraki can sack Kings Landing right at the start, they can disrupt the Westerosi chain of command. To say nothing of Dany persuading anyone in Westeros to turn thier cloaks and fight for her.

With the ships issue, I'm going to hand this one to Westeros. But its not going to be as simple as people think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Europe

 

[Boarsbane]

23 minutes ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

Given that the Mongols invaded Europe quite successfully, we can't write off the Dothraki. However, I see a problem here that the Mongols didn't have to contend with

Ships as supply lines

given the Dothraki aversion to salt water, it is difficult to see how this would work in the event of invasion. They also lack the Mongol attitude for absorbing good ideas and people, which limits them to being unable to adapt to newer situations. It was the Mongols ability to absorb good ideas that led them to develop seige engines, a must for attacking Westeros

Given the distance they have to traverse, a surprise attack by Drogo is out of the question.

We, speaking as ominescient gods, can defend Westeros quite easily. Speaking for myself, I'd mobilise all armies, stationing them in solid castles, and bring in as many smallfolk and supplies behind walls as possible. Send the Redwyne fleet and the ironborn around Dorne to destroy any Dotraki reinforcements. Starve any landing party, put archers on every castle wall and pepper them with arrows until they are beaten and demoralised, then smash them with overwhelming force.

But the Dothraki are not without advantages here. Varys being on the Dothaki side is worth a few thousand men right there. More to the point, if the Dothraki can face the Westerosi armies piecemeal, they can win. Most Westerosi high command would simply rally what forces they have, and attack with little thought as to waiting for others. Furthermore, if the Dothraki can sack Kings Landing right at the start, they can disrupt the Westerosi chain of command. To say nothing of Dany persuading anyone in Westeros to turn thier cloaks and fight for her.

With the ships issue, I'm going to hand this one to Westeros. But its not going to be as simple as people think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Europe

 

You talk about the Westerosi chain of command as if these regions all are being directed from Kings Landing. We see how little control Joffrey as over military matters, the armies answer to their Lords, things won't collapse if by some miracle the Dothraki sack King's Landing and kill the king.

The Dothraki on the other hand would dissolve into infighting and much smaller bands if Drogo were killed, which is pretty likely if he tries fighting in the front lines as seems to be his nature. 

[Makk]

How do you have a situation in which Joffery is king but Ned is intact? Does that mean Ned is out of the game at the wall?

I feel it would take years for the Dothraki to acquire enough ships to get over to Westeros. What is Euron doing in this time?

 

40 minutes ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

But the Dothraki are not without advantages here. Varys being on the Dothaki side is worth a few thousand men right there.

Why is Varys on the Dothraki side? He appears to want fAegon on the throne and I don't see how having Viserys there would help that at all. Is the golden company fighting with the Dothraki as well?

[Trigger Warning]

The point was that the Mongols and the Dothraki are only superficially similar, they field a lot of light cavalry and mounted archers and they're nomads. That's about it. 

What reason do we have to believe they'd defeat a similar sized Westerosi force in the field, other than Jorah sucking up to Dany.

[Slaver's Dread]

The Dothraki are nothing like the Mongols. The biggest fundamental difference other than the steppe tribes in our world being almost exclusively horse archers is that the Dothraki way of war is to always charge, while our steppe tribes were excellent at faking routs. Real steppe tribes would eat the 7 kingdoms alive, but the Dothraki are a pale imitation of the tribes thatcaused havoc all through Eurasia.

[Kyll.Ing.]

Just imagine the difficulties of getting the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea.

First, you need ships. Lots of ships. Rumour-creating amouts of ships. And of course somewhere to embark them. Few harbours in Essos can provide or hold so many ships, and those that do are filled with Westerosi traders bringing news across the Sea. News which could very well reward the messenger with a handsome sum of gold. If the Pentoshi harbour was suddenly filled with troop-transport ships, the lords across the sea would hear about it shortly afterwards. With time to prepare, a few warships could easily destroy the Dothraki piecemeal, much the same way they themselves outmaneuver enemies on their home turf. Dothraki are notoriously afraid of salt water and wouldn't be able to fight well in naval combat. Having to transport horses also means there is room for fewer warriors per ship, once again decreasing their effectiveness.

The Dothraki probably wouldn't be able to sail across the Narrow Sea in one go. They'd need way too many ships, and preparing a fleet operation that large gets exponentially more complicated the more you have. That leads us into problem number two, however: Splitting the khalasar. The rules of Dothraki leadership is simple: They follow power, and when a khal isn't present, a new khalasar forms. Should the khal leave Essos on the first wave of ships, those remaining in Essos would elect a new leader and follow the notion of "let's go back home and not bother with this poison water thing" before the khal's ship was even out of sight from land. What could the khal do to stop them? Conversely, should the khal remain in Essos while the first wave crossed without him, the army would have no leadership, and there would be nothing stopping them from sailing a few hundred kilometres north or south down the Essosi coast, and head home rather than risking their life in Westeros. Meanwhile, whatever portion of the khalasar is remaning in Essos will eat the land bare thanks to all the horses.

Hijacking ships is problem number three. Imagine a ship filled with seasick Dothraki warriors. Their khal is on another ship, hours if not days away, the waves are constantly rocking the boat, the horses don't thrive, (poison) salt water is spraying everywhere, and the warriors are starting to have second notions about this "invade Westeros" thing. Maybe Essos is still in sight behind them, whereas ahead of them there is only sea. What's stopping them from pressing an arakh to the captain's throat, demanding he turns the boat around, and starting their own little khalasar back home, now that their biggest competitor (the khal) is across the sea? And how would the other ships react to seeing this? You'd easily have mass desertations all over the Narrow Sea, and the khal is powerless to stop it.

Okay, now let's factor in the weather. The Golden Company, famously disciplined and with solid plans for crossing the sea, were scattered all over the Stepstones when they tried to ferry ten thousand men across the sea. Drogo's horde is ten times that size (at least initially, see above). There would be hundreds of landing sites, no means of remote communication, no lines of command. The warriors are trapped on unknown shores, unaware of the geography, and knowing Westeros' east coast, it's rocky, swampy, with little food for horses and a terrain that really disfavours mounted combat. A prepared lord could see them coming, attack them when disembarking, and slaughter them on the beach. Other groups would form their own khalasars on whatever Stepstone they landed on, then starve to death as they run out of grass. Or freeze to death as winter comes, who knows.

 

Even in a scenario with no combat, the khalasar would be whittled away to nothing really, really quick. Add in the Westerosi terrain, climate, and the Dothraki's complete inability to handle armour (neither wearing it themselves, nor having weapons to pierce the opponents'), and the whole operation would be a complete disaster. Knowing what we do about the Dothraki, Westeros would win without even trying.

[Light a wight tonight]

6 hours ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

Given that the Mongols invaded Europe quite successfully, we can't write off the Dothraki. However, I see a problem here that the Mongols didn't have to contend with

Ships as supply lines

given the Dothraki aversion to salt water, it is difficult to see how this would work in the event of invasion. They also lack the Mongol attitude for absorbing good ideas and people, which limits them to being unable to adapt to newer situations. It was the Mongols ability to absorb good ideas that led them to develop seige engines, a must for attacking Westeros

Given the distance they have to traverse, a surprise attack by Drogo is out of the question.

We, speaking as ominescient gods, can defend Westeros quite easily. Speaking for myself, I'd mobilise all armies, stationing them in solid castles, and bring in as many smallfolk and supplies behind walls as possible. Send the Redwyne fleet and the ironborn around Dorne to destroy any Dotraki reinforcements. Starve any landing party, put archers on every castle wall and pepper them with arrows until they are beaten and demoralised, then smash them with overwhelming force.

But the Dothraki are not without advantages here. Varys being on the Dothaki side is worth a few thousand men right there. More to the point, if the Dothraki can face the Westerosi armies piecemeal, they can win. Most Westerosi high command would simply rally what forces they have, and attack with little thought as to waiting for others. Furthermore, if the Dothraki can sack Kings Landing right at the start, they can disrupt the Westerosi chain of command. To say nothing of Dany persuading anyone in Westeros to turn thier cloaks and fight for her.

With the ships issue, I'm going to hand this one to Westeros. But its not going to be as simple as people think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Europe

 

The problem with this is that the Mongols didn't remain light cavalry. They evolved, so they were able to successfully conduct sieges, etc. They were also better armed than the Dothraki.