Aegon is not a Blackfyre

[Shierak Qiya]

Fans have wondered ever since the release of ADWD whether Varys was telling the truth to Kevan Lannister at the end of the book.  I have summarized some of the more popular theories below:

1. Varys is ignorant of young Griff's real identity.  He believes the young man is the real Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne.  Illyrio cheated Varys and switched the children without Varys knowing.
2. Varys lied to Kevan.  Varys is so used to lying that it comes a second-nature.  He has been perpetuating the lie for many years and used to telling the story.
3. The baby boys were switched before the sack of King's Landing.  The baby that Varys took was actually an impostor.  Illyrio has another accomplice who know the story.  Elia knew the plan to protect Aegon and played her part so well that even Varys was fooled.  Varys smuggled out the impostor. 
4. Prince Aegon was actually not the son of Rhaegar.  Rhaenys and Aegon were sired by someone else.  Elia had a secret lover, a Blackfyre.  A twist on this, Rhaegar was impotent.  He desired to heal the rift between the Targaryens and the Blackfyres.  He was willing to let the crown pass to a Blackfyre rather than letting a great council make the decision. 
5. Varys lied because his little birds were listening.

Another possible explanation that is just as good as any other; Aegon is the real deal.  Varys tricked the Golden Company to think the boy is a Blackfyre in order to get their support.  He was telling the truth to Kevan.  There was really no reason to lie to a dead man.  The little birds are loyal and were really too young to care about politics.  Young Griff is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen. 

[edd tollett:(]

Then why snitch on Rhaegar if all he wanted was a compatent Targaryen ruler?

[Shierak Qiya]

23 minutes ago, edd tollett:( said:

Then why snitch on Rhaegar if all he wanted was a compatent Targaryen ruler?

Just because Rhaegar was dreamy and impractical doesn't mean his son, Aegon, would be.  The kind of childhood shaped by Varys and Illyrio away from the king's palace could shape the child into a practical ruler.  Someone who can be generous to the loyal and ruthless to the enemy at the same time.

[Ser Knute]

26 minutes ago, Franklin VI said:

Fans have wondered ever since the release of ADWD whether Varys was telling the truth to Kevan Lannister at the end of the book.  I have summarized some of the more popular theories below:

1. Varys is ignorant of young Griff's real identity.  He believes the young man is the real Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne.  Illyrio cheated Varys and switched the children without Varys knowing.
2. Varys lied to Kevan.  Varys is so used to lying that it comes a second-nature.  He has been perpetuating the lie for many years and used to telling the story.
3. The baby boys were switched before the sack of King's Landing.  The baby that Varys took was actually an impostor.  Illyrio has another accomplice who know the story.  Elia knew the plan to protect Aegon and played her part so well that even Varys was fooled.  Varys smuggled out the impostor. 
4. Prince Aegon was actually not the son of Rhaegar.  Rhaenys and Aegon were sired by someone else.  Elia had a secret lover, a Blackfyre.  A twist on this, Rhaegar was impotent.  He desired to heal the rift between the Targaryens and the Blackfyres.  He was willing to let the crown pass to a Blackfyre rather than letting a great council make the decision. 
5. Varys lied because his little birds were listening.

Another possible explanation that is just as good as any other; Aegon is the real deal.  Varys tricked the Golden Company to think the boy is a Blackfyre in order to get their support.  He was telling the truth to Kevan.  There was really no reason to lie to a dead man.  The little birds are loyal and were really too young to care about politics.  Young Griff is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen.

Varys lying to Kevan or not has no actual bearing on whether Aegon is or isn't a Blackfyre.  Believe what you like but more evidence is needed.  You can't just say Varys not lying = Aegon = Targaryen, or Varys lying = Aegon = Blackfyre.  It just does not follow logically.

[A bowl of brown]

I think the most popular blackfyre theory is that faegon is illyrios son with serra who was a blackfyre descendent and possibly varys sister. 

If hes not a blackfyre I struggle to see why there are so many references to them throughout the books and prequels.

[Shierak Qiya]

1 minute ago, Ser Knute said:

Varys lying to Kevan or not has no actual bearing on whether Aegon is or isn't a Blackfyre.  Believe what you like but more evidence is needed.  You can't just say Varys not lying = Aegon = Targaryen, or Varys lying = Aegon = Blackfyre.  It just does not follow logically.

Sure it follows just as logically as the theory he's a Blackfyre.  We cannot assume that Varys was lying.  It makes no sense to lie to a dying man.  Varys and Illyrio have worked together for decades.  It's unlikely for Illyrio to cheat Varys and switch baby boys.  The motivation is there to present Aegon as a Blackfyre, even if he is the real Aegon.  They need the Golden Company to fight for them.

If we look at the text, there is more to support that he's the real Aegon than there is to support that he is a Blackfyre. 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

36 minutes ago, Franklin VI said:

 Varys tricked the Golden Company to think the boy is a Blackfyre in order to get their support.  

If this is true then the whole golden company knows he is not the son of rhaegar, while Jon con thinks he is rhaegars son. I don't see varys creating a chance for things to implode like that. Bc when/if Jon con finds out he is not rhaegars son well he will be pissed to the max.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Since every theory under the sun has likely been discussed before, I doubt my idea is particularly novel. But is it not possible that Elia Martell - being of Arriane's family and promiscuous culture - could have been infatuated with Arthur Dayne in the same way that Arriane was tempted to sleep with Gerold Dayne?

And if so, her children might in fact have been Arthur Dayne's bastards, and not Rhaegar's at all. (Which could have been a motivation for Rhaegar's affair with Lyanna, but that is another topic). In any case, then Aegon might indeed by Elia's son who was smuggled out of King's Landing, and he would indeed have the Targaryen look (or in this case the Dayne look, which is essentially exactly the same) but he would still not be the true Targaryen heir.

 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Since every theory under the sun has likely been discussed before, I doubt my idea is particularly novel. But is it not possible that Elia Martell - being of Arriane's family and promiscuous culture - could have been infatuated with Arthur Dayne in the same way that Arriane was tempted to sleep with Gerold Dayne?

And if so, her children might in fact have been Arthur Dayne's bastards, and not Rhaegar's at all. (Which could have been a motivation for Rhaegar's affair with Lyanna, but that is another topic). In any case, then Aegon might indeed by Elia's son who was smuggled out of King's Landing, and he would indeed have the Targaryen look (or in this case the Dayne look, which is essentially exactly the same) but he would still not be the true Targaryen heir.

 

Dayne and targs look nothing alike

[Ser Knute]

2 minutes ago, Franklin VI said:

Sure it follows just as logically as the theory he's a Blackfyre.  We cannot assume that Varys was lying.  It makes no sense to lie to a dying man.  Varys and Illyrio have worked together for decades.  It's unlikely for Illyrio to cheat Varys and switch baby boys.  The motivation is there to present Aegon as a Blackfyre, even if he is the real Aegon.  They need the Golden Company to fight for them.

If we look at the text, there is more to support that he's the real Aegon than there is to support that he is a Blackfyre. 

No it doesn't.  It's a logical fallacy to think that one statements truth or falseness makes another statement true or false, that's not how logic works.

You're getting hung up on your belief of what a statement means, which you can't prove with hard evidence, thus the fallacy.

Sure you can believe that because of the GC's involvement you believe that they would only break a contract as a SS company to support a Blackfyre and that you believe Varys lied to them to gain their support, etc., but that belief is based on wishful thinking not cold-hard facts.  You can't prove what is a fact and what isn't with the information at hand, and what you really have is supposition that you're choosing to believe as fact... doesn't make it a fact, yet.  Possible yes but not fact.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

Dayne and targs look nothing alike

From the wiki:

The Daynes, who originate in the western Red Mountains,[3] would be considered "stony" Dornishmen by Daeron II Targaryen. They have fair skin, unlike fellow countrymen more influenced by the Rhoynar.[4] Their hair has been described as pale blond (Edric), dark (Ashara), and silver with a streak of black (Gerold). Daynes have been observed with dark blue (Edric) or purple eyes (Ashara and Gerold).

[Makk]

I think Varys was lying to Kevan because he wanted to test out the lie and see how Kevan reacted. Soon Varys is going to have to start lying to all the nobles. It's an important test case.

[Mick of House Guinness]

1 hour ago, Franklin VI said:

Another possible explanation that is just as good as any other; Aegon is the real deal.  Varys tricked the Golden Company to think the boy is a Blackfyre in order to get their support.  He was telling the truth to Kevan.  There was really no reason to lie to a dead man.  The little birds are loyal and were really too young to care about politics.  Young Griff is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen.

Not sure your explanation is as good as any other. Varys could easily have finished off Kevan himself without any little birds present. The only reason GRRM has the kids in the scene is so the eunuch would have a reason to lie to Kevan. (and the readers)

[ThePrinceThatKnewNothing]

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . 

in danys visions in the house of the undying she's given these three visions which end with "slayer of lies". I feel that this is enough evidence to say Aegon isn't a targ

[Leonardo]

He never says he's Aegon Targaryen, so Varys needn't have lied.

 

The odds of that being Aegon Targaryen, that Elia would have trusted her son with Varys, a known liar and manipulator who has been meddling for a while now implies Elia was stupid, and based on our knowledge of her she was anything but.

[The Commentator]

2 hours ago, ThePrinceThatKnewNothing said:

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . 

in danys visions in the house of the undying she's given these three visions which end with "slayer of lies". I feel that this is enough evidence to say Aegon isn't a targ

The lie has nothing to do with who sits on the iron throne.  It has to do with impostors trying to pass off as Azor Ahai.  Stannis making a claim for the iron throne involves no deception.  His Azor Ahai claim involves big deception.  And Varys is not the only mummer in the story.  Mellisandre is also a mummer.  Mellisandre may try to pass Jon off as Azor Ahai and that will be the deception that Dany will have to destroy.  Jon is not Azor Ahai after all. 

Alright, on to the OP's theory.  Yes, Aegon could be the "real deal" and Varys is passing him off as a Blackfyre.  I understand, there is no reason for Varys to lie to a dying man.  Varys is a skilled spymaster and I don't think there is any way Mopatis can switch the boys and him not find out about it.  I want to take this one step farther and simplify it.  Aegon is the "real deal" and his handlers made a deal with the Golden Company to give them back their lands and status if they support his campaign for the throne.  Does it really matter whether he's a Targaryen or a Blackfyre if he can give them a better life than that of a mercenary?  I think they will readily accept a true Targaryen and support his or her claim to the throne if it meant getting back home.

[Makk]

16 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The lie has nothing to do with who sits on the iron throne.  It has to do with impostors trying to pass off as Azor Ahai.  Stannis making a claim for the iron throne involves no deception.  His Azor Ahai claim involves big deception. 

I think it is more likely it simply involves lies, the lies are not all the same, and the clue to the lie is also in the vision. Stannis is claiming to be Azor Ahai, and that is a lie. fAegon is claiming to be a Targaryen, and that is a lie. No idea what the third one is.

[The Ice Wolf of Loki]

12 minutes ago, Makk said:

I think it is more likely it simply involves lies, the lies are not all the same, and the clue to the lie is also in the vision. Stannis is claiming to be Azor Ahai, and that is a lie. fAegon is claiming to be a Targaryen, and that is a lie. No idea what the third one is.

Dany claims to be Daenerys Stormborn and that is a lie

or Jon Snow clams to be Eddard Stark's bastard and that is a lie.

[Leonardo]

49 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The lie has nothing to do with who sits on the iron throne.  It has to do with impostors trying to pass off as Azor Ahai.  Stannis making a claim for the iron throne involves no deception.  His Azor Ahai claim involves big deception.  And Varys is not the only mummer in the story.  Mellisandre is also a mummer.  Mellisandre may try to pass Jon off as Azor Ahai and that will be the deception that Dany will have to destroy.  Jon is not Azor Ahai after all. 

Alright, on to the OP's theory.  Yes, Aegon could be the "real deal" and Varys is passing him off as a Blackfyre.  I understand, there is no reason for Varys to lie to a dying man.  Varys is a skilled spymaster and I don't think there is any way Mopatis can switch the boys and him not find out about it.  I want to take this one step farther and simplify it.  Aegon is the "real deal" and his handlers made a deal with the Golden Company to give them back their lands and status if they support his campaign for the throne.  Does it really matter whether he's a Targaryen or a Blackfyre if he can give them a better life than that of a mercenary?  I think they will readily accept a true Targaryen and support his or her claim to the throne if it meant getting back home.

They aren't really 'going home' though. Most have never set foot in Westeros at this point; the Golden Company was founded over a hundred years ago.

[lomiller]

1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

The lie has nothing to do with who sits on the iron throne. 

It's specifically about pretenders to the Iron Throne.  The lie in question is that they are the rightful King.