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Aegon is not a Blackfyre


Shierak Qiya

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17 hours ago, ThePrinceThatKnewNothing said:

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . . 

in danys visions in the house of the undying she's given these three visions which end with "slayer of lies". I feel that this is enough evidence to say Aegon isn't a targ

I agree with the conclusion, but this reasoning in isolation only works if we believe that Aegon is the mummer's dragon. If you believe that Aegon is the mummer's dragon because he's fake, aren't we then using circular logic? On the other hand, if we believe that Aegon is the mummer's dragon because he's supported by Varys, then we have something. 

Now, if we could just figure out that stone beast...

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15 hours ago, lomiller said:

It's specifically about pretenders to the Iron Throne.  The lie in question is that they are the rightful King. 

I agree this might be possible. It would suggest that Euron is the great stone beast taking wing from a smoking tower and breathing shadow fire

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14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

First of all, not even in the ample material we've been given do we have one instance of Varys lying. Other people not understanding him is not the same as him deliberately misleading anyone.

Second, you're implying she's known the guy for years, but we don't really know how long he's worked for King Crazy at this point.

Third, Elia is surrounded by people who would willingly put the king's orders above everything else, if only out of fear of being the next BBQ victim, which means she may not have much choice but trust the one person who has a plan to keep her boy safe.  The original plan may even have been to send Aegon to her family in Dorne, which she might well have agreed to and she could have checked, or to send him to the Queen which Elia would have no reason to reject. 

What evidence in the text indicates that Elia was brilliantly intelligent?  And have you never in your life allowed emotion to override intellect? We're talking about a mother trying to protect her baby from not only the rebels, if they win, but from crazy grandpa across the palace. She might well have been acting purely on instinct. Rhaegar deserted her, Tywin Lannister is approaching the city, her father-in-law couldn't care less what happens to her and has already cut little Aegon out of the line of succession. What does she have to lose at this point? It's her against the world, and she's got one shot to save her son.

I would add that Tyrion trusted Varys with Shae. 

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12 hours ago, James Arryn said:

The argument that he must be a BF in order to explain all prior mentions of the BF Rebellions is faulty. If that's true, why then might not Danny be a BF? (She's not, IMO, but that would accomplish the same alleged need for the BF's to be included in The narrative.)

I do think that the novels and the ancillary works create the expectation that Aegon is a Blackfyre, but I agree that a Blackfyre claimant is not necessary. I cannot reconcile Aegon as the son of Rhaegar, but it is possible that the Blackfyre Rebellion backstory was written to set up only the Golden Company. 

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2 hours ago, The Snow Bear said:

One thing no one ever mentions in this debate (possibly because of its' meagre in-world value) is the way we first come to know of the Young Griff is Aegon idea.

 

Tyrion figures it out on his own. In-world one might say that he merely come to a circumstantial conclusion based on clues that could equally lead to Aegon being FAegon. But from a literary point of view I think it makes a pretty strong argument, especially with all the talk about Tyrions intelligence.

 

 

 

So for me the story goes like.

Varys came to Kingslanding and for some time just did his job as spymaster aiming always on keeping the smallfolk casualties low. (Thus his informing on possible Harrenhall plans, which could have led to a civil war).

 

Sometime during RR he came to believe, that a true and truthful king must have a nobler upbringing.

 

When Tywins troops sacked Kingslanding he told Elia, that the only way to safe her boy was to switch him (either to give him back to her later or to bring him to a safe place).

 

Aegon than was hidden and formed into the ideal of a king.

 

During this time Varys again did his job as spymaster aiming again always on keeping the smallfolk casualties low. (thus, possibly, the long years of peace).

 

I’m not sure which role exactly Varys played in the actions of the books, but I see him much less as an active actor as Littlefinger. But Varys’ aim would be to make the realm ripe for the reign of glory king Aegon.

 

 

 

Why do people think Tyrion figured it out on his own?

 

“I only need half my wits to be a match for you.” Tyrion moved up his heavy horse to support the light. “Perhaps you would care to wager on the outcome?” The Halfmaester arched an eyebrow. “How much?” “I have no coin. We’ll play for secrets.” “Griff would cut my tongue out.” “Afraid, are you? I would be if I were you.” “The day you defeat me at cyvasse will be the day turtles crawl out my arse.” The Halfmaester moved his spears. “You have your wager, little man.”

Then not even two pages later we get the reveal of Aegon. 

 

Tyrion lies that he figured it out on his own. We know he didn't because not once does he think oh Aegon.. I mean Young Griff..in. but he does know something isn't right and thinks about that ie playing for secrets.

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3 hours ago, The Snow Bear said:

One thing no one ever mentions in this debate (possibly because of its' meagre in-world value) is the way we first come to know of the Young Griff is Aegon idea.

 

Tyrion figures it out on his own. In-world one might say that he merely come to a circumstantial conclusion based on clues that could equally lead to Aegon being FAegon. But from a literary point of view I think it makes a pretty strong argument, especially with all the talk about Tyrions intelligence.

 

 

 

So for me the story goes like.

Varys came to Kingslanding and for some time just did his job as spymaster aiming always on keeping the smallfolk casualties low. (Thus his informing on possible Harrenhall plans, which could have led to a civil war).

 

Sometime during RR he came to believe, that a true and truthful king must have a nobler upbringing.

 

When Tywins troops sacked Kingslanding he told Elia, that the only way to safe her boy was to switch him (either to give him back to her later or to bring him to a safe place).

 

Aegon than was hidden and formed into the ideal of a king.

 

During this time Varys again did his job as spymaster aiming again always on keeping the smallfolk casualties low. (thus, possibly, the long years of peace).

 

I’m not sure which role exactly Varys played in the actions of the books, but I see him much less as an active actor as Littlefinger. But Varys’ aim would be to make the realm ripe for the reign of glory king Aegon.

 

 

 

A. I don't for a minute believe Varys is really looking out for the greater good.

B. Isn't it suspicious that Varys seems to have worked against Rhaegar's plot at Harrenhall (assuming it wasn't just a rumor of his creation) and yet went to such great lengths to save his son? Especially since Viserys was named heir?

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Here's an alternate theory that I have that involves "Blackfyre" and "Aegon."

According to Dornish Law, Daena Targaryen should have inherited the throne upon Baelor I's death.  However, Daena (Baelor's eldest sister) was passed up in the line of succession, as was the precedent which favored male heirs over females.  Daemon Blackfyre was Daena's son and (insofar as we know at this time) her only child.  Dornish favoritism in Daeron II's court was one of the main factors (if not the biggest factor) that lead lords to support the black dragon against the red.  Unfortunate perhaps that the Martells were not allied with Daemon, since Dornish Law might have been used as a legal means to help him claim the throne.

Per a theory I've been nursing, the Blackfyres (or rather their descendants) now have such an alliance: Mellario of Norvos is a Blackfyre descendant. 

Varys began serving in KL around the time Rhaegar married Elia.  Perhaps one of his first councils to Aerys was to marry Rhaegar and Elia, in hopes of appeasing any ambitions Doran might have for the throne.  Per the law in his own kingdom, Doran's children had a right to the throne, but he might overlook his children's inheritance if his sister were to be queen.

Fast-forward past Robert's Rebellion.  Aegon is assumed dead.  Doran begins nursing the idea (again or for the first time is uncertain) to have his children sit the throne.  Doran has Quentyn fostered with the Yronwoods.  House Yronwood is traditionally a rival of House Martell, but a known supporter of House Blackfyre for at least three Blackfyre Rebellions.  Later, Doran attempts to have Arianne fostered in Tyrosh, another place known to support House Blackfyre.  (Daemon Blackfyre was married to Rohanne of Tyrosh, and all of his children were born from this marriage.) 

Mellario resented any of her children being fostered away.  Giving a child up as a foster or ward is not something she (as a Lady of Norvos) is accustomed to.  She relented when Quentyn was sent to Yronwood, but threatened to hurt herself if Arianne were sent away.  One might say that Arianne's case was "the last straw," that one child being sent away was already unbearable, but two was just too much.  However, after Mellario's threat to hurt herself, she returns to Norvos leaving behind not just Arianne, but also a baby Trystane.  No, I don't think her wish to be near her children was feigned.  It simply was not the only reason for her anger, not by far.  Her husband's ambitions angered her most of all.  She was able to bear (enough) Quentyn being fostered with House Yronwood, friends and allies of House Blackfyre, but could not bear Arianne being fostered in Tyrosh to meet her Targaryen consort, Viserys.

Now, let's look where Aegon was raised: along the Rhoyne, the ancestoral lands of the Rhoynar.  We know from Arianne's chapters that the Martells hold their Rhoynish heritage dear.  Both Doran and Oberyn toured the ruins of the Rhoynar in their youth, the former's trip leading to him meeting his future wife.  (And let's imagine Doran exploring the lands of his ancestors, thinking of his heritage and culture, how his people hold women equal to men, even in inheritance.  And then, at the end of his trip, meeting none other than Mellario.) 

Varys couldn't be certain that Doran would support Aegon's claim; he might think Aegon to be feigned, or he might - this time - support his children's claim over anyone else's, even his own nephew's.  Varys' choice for raising Aegon along the Rhoynar might have been to appease Doran in some way.  This boy had been raised amongst the ruins along the Rhoyne, and being of Rhoynish heritage himself, would come to appreciate and support Rhoynar culture.  (In theory at least.  We see in ADwD that Aegon might have "inherited" Connington's sexism.  The intention of raising Aegon on the Rhoyne to appreciate its culture might have been for naught.)

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3 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

A. I don't for a minute believe Varys is really looking out for the greater good.

B. Isn't it suspicious that Varys seems to have worked against Rhaegar's plot at Harrenhall (assuming it wasn't just a rumor of his creation) and yet went to such great lengths to save his son? Especially since Viserys was named heir?

Ignoring A as a matter of opinion, and since we don't know anyway...

I don't find it remotely suspicious that Varys would do his job (aka not get burned...just occurred to me that Thoros should have been sent to KL long before and he could have converted Aerys easily...) with little risk of anything much happening to Rhaegar as a result, and then save Rhaegar's innocent baby son after Rhaegar is dead.  

Rhaegar may or may not have been involved in any plotting at Harrenhal. Varys might have been warning Aerys that the Wardens of the Westerlands, Riverlands, North, and Vale were getting way too cozy with each other. But even if Rhae Rhae were in on something there, Aerys wasn't going to have his own son killed. Disinherited maybe, but not killed. Remember how upset Aerys got when Brandon wanted to kill Rhae Rhae?

Then of course we have the Viserys issue. Remember from Ser Barristan that in childhood Viserys was already showing mini-Aerys tendencies. So we've got the possibly great future-king Rhaegar dead. Then Tywin shows up at the city gates and Varys tries to convince Aerys NOT to open the gates.  Aerys opens the gates. Aerys is done-for, and Viserys would likely end up as bad as his daddy was if there was any chance of him getting the throne, and with Tywin on Robert's side that's not going to happen anyway. What's a Spider to do? Take the kid, who is innocent and the son of the maybe-could-have-been-great-Rhaegar, get him to safety and invest in the future.

Makes perfect sense to me.

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3 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Isobel Harper, that's interesting but I don't see anything in it that actually points to Mellario being a Blackfyre descendant other than that it might make her actions more understandable. 

I was literally in the middle of writing you a personal message when I saw that you replied.  After the forum update, I lost record of our conversation about possible Blackfyres in the series.  I was going to mention Mellario.  This is more of an "idea" than a true "theory," but one I've been nursing for a little while. 

I still have a "War of the Nine Penny Kings 2.0" thread that I need to post, and have done little research on it in a while.  (I have half the post saved on a computer somewhere...)  This would tie into that. 

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On April 17, 2016 at 0:18 PM, Franklin VI said:

 

Another possible explanation that is just as good as any other; Aegon is the real deal.  Varys tricked the Golden Company to think the boy is a Blackfyre in order to get their support.   

I don't think Varys did any tricking of the GC or that the Golden Company thinks he is a Blackfyre without JonCon having the same info.  Also, we heard from Dany that The Golden Company met with Viserys.  They didn't take him seriously, but they also didn't treat him as an enemy.  

Illyrio says when pressed about the same question "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon."  

At this point it has been 40 years since the last Blackfyre rebellion and I doubt many of the current fighters (most likely younger than 40) are that devoted to anti-Targaryen sentiment and along the lines of what Illyrio said, the ruling party is in Westeros is now Lannister. Aegon/Illyrio provided the best opportunity to the company regardless of heritage.  

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3 hours ago, Rob Storm said:

I don't think Varys did any tricking of the GC or that the Golden Company thinks he is a Blackfyre without JonCon having the same info.  Also, we heard from Dany that The Golden Company met with Viserys.  They didn't take him seriously, but they also didn't treat him as an enemy.  

Illyrio says when pressed about the same question "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon."  

At this point it has been 40 years since the last Blackfyre rebellion and I doubt many of the current fighters (most likely younger than 40) are that devoted to anti-Targaryen sentiment and along the lines of what Illyrio said, the ruling party is in Westeros is now Lannister. Aegon/Illyrio provided the best opportunity to the company regardless of heritage.  

Quote

"So you are fighting over a crown that one of you took from the other back when the Casterlys still held Casterly Rock, is that the root of it? The crown of a kingdom that has not existed for thousands of years?" He chuckled. "So many years, so many wars, so many kings … you'd think someone would have made a peace."

"Someone did, my lord. Many someones. We've had a hundred peaces with the Brackens, many sealed with marriages. There's Blackwood blood in every Bracken, and Bracken blood in every Blackwood. The Old King's Peace lasted half a century. But then some fresh quarrel broke out, and the old wounds opened and began to bleed again. That's how it always happens, my father says. So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it."

"There could be."

"How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says."

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance."

"Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically.

Jaime, Dance 48

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5 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

I was literally in the middle of writing you a personal message when I saw that you replied.  After the forum update, I lost record of our conversation about possible Blackfyres in the series.  I was going to mention Mellario.  This is more of an "idea" than a true "theory," but one I've been nursing for a little while. 

I still have a "War of the Nine Penny Kings 2.0" thread that I need to post, and have done little research on it in a while.  (I have half the post saved on a computer somewhere...)  This would tie into that. 

Oh, okay. I'm good with ideas. Was just wondering if there was more to it. 

If you want to discuss the Blackfyres some more, by all means send me a message. I've been thinking more about BBP lately and how it would be so convenient for him to be one cause the dragons already like him. 

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10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

A. I don't for a minute believe Varys is really looking out for the greater good.

B. Isn't it suspicious that Varys seems to have worked against Rhaegar's plot at Harrenhall (assuming it wasn't just a rumor of his creation) and yet went to such great lengths to save his son? Especially since Viserys was named heir?

To A.:

Well, few do. But to me it stillmakes sense that the one character, who is hated by almost everyone for what he is and is perceived to be, is out for the greater good.

To B.:

7 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Ignoring A as a matter of opinion, and since we don't know anyway...

I don't find it remotely suspicious that Varys would do his job (aka not get burned...just occurred to me that Thoros should have been sent to KL long before and he could have converted Aerys easily...) with little risk of anything much happening to Rhaegar as a result, and then save Rhaegar's innocent baby son after Rhaegar is dead.  

Rhaegar may or may not have been involved in any plotting at Harrenhal. Varys might have been warning Aerys that the Wardens of the Westerlands, Riverlands, North, and Vale were getting way too cozy with each other. But even if Rhae Rhae were in on something there, Aerys wasn't going to have his own son killed. Disinherited maybe, but not killed. Remember how upset Aerys got when Brandon wanted to kill Rhae Rhae?

Then of course we have the Viserys issue. Remember from Ser Barristan that in childhood Viserys was already showing mini-Aerys tendencies. So we've got the possibly great future-king Rhaegar dead. Then Tywin shows up at the city gates and Varys tries to convince Aerys NOT to open the gates.  Aerys opens the gates. Aerys is done-for, and Viserys would likely end up as bad as his daddy was if there was any chance of him getting the throne, and with Tywin on Robert's side that's not going to happen anyway. What's a Spider to do? Take the kid, who is innocent and the son of the maybe-could-have-been-great-Rhaegar, get him to safety and invest in the future.

Makes perfect sense to me.

That!

And as I tried to state in the brakets, a plot at harrenhall would have likely led to a civil war with high smallfolk casualties

11 hours ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

Why do people think Tyrion figured it out on his own?

 

“I only need half my wits to be a match for you.” Tyrion moved up his heavy horse to support the light. “Perhaps you would care to wager on the outcome?” The Halfmaester arched an eyebrow. “How much?” “I have no coin. We’ll play for secrets.” “Griff would cut my tongue out.” “Afraid, are you? I would be if I were you.” “The day you defeat me at cyvasse will be the day turtles crawl out my arse.” The Halfmaester moved his spears. “You have your wager, little man.”

Then not even two pages later we get the reveal of Aegon. 

 

Tyrion lies that he figured it out on his own. We know he didn't because not once does he think oh Aegon.. I mean Young Griff..in. but he does know something isn't right and thinks about that ie playing for secrets.

Well, thats your opinion. The figuring out happens of stage but, I always imagined it more like a "yes or no" than as a "tell me everything" thing. 

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On 4/17/2016 at 4:09 PM, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

Dayne and targs look nothing alike

Really?

Ashara Dayne had brown hair and purple eyes

 

Bittersteel same thing

Arthur Dayne was a less pretty version of Rhaegar silver hair purple eyes.

Ned Dayne Blue eyes so dark thwy almost look purple with fine golden almost platinum hair.

Good Queen Alysann was a rare Targ with similar coloring even down to the blue eyes. 

 

So yes Daynes and Targ share similar attributes 

 

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On 17/4/2016 at 10:18 PM, Franklin VI said:

Elia knew the plan to protect Aegon and played her part so well that even Varys was fooled

What? I find quite silly the part when Elia abandoned her daughter to die alone in order for her to stay with an imposter but this is a completely new level of nonsense.

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15 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Arthur Dayne was a less pretty version of Rhaegar silver hair purple eyes

We don't know that.

15 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Ashara Dayne had brown hair and purple eyes

Bittersteel same thing

And?

15 minutes ago, the conquering bastard 25 said:

fine golden almost platinum hair

Not really; pale blond, like Tommen and Tyrion.

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6 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

What? I find quite silly the part when Elia abandoned her daughter to die alone in order for her to stay with an imposter but this is a completely new level of nonsense.

That Elia died protecting the pisswater prince while her daughter was butchered elsewhere certainly supports the conclusion that Gregor killed Rhaegar's son, but it doesn't prove it. For example, the switch might have just been accomplished in that moment. But I think the storyteller gave us that bit to help us realize that Gregor really did murder the son of the man who knighted him. 

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14 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That Elia died protecting the pisswater prince while her daughter was butchered elsewhere certainly supports the conclusion that Gregor killed Rhaegar's son, but it doesn't prove

Agree.

14 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

For example, the switch might have just been accomplished in that moment

Then what a mother whose child was in grave danger would had left the fake one to go to her own child. I think that is basic mother instinct.

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20 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

What? I find quite silly the part when Elia abandoned her daughter to die alone in order for her to stay with an imposter but this is a completely new level of nonsense.

 

15 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

That Elia died protecting the pisswater prince while her daughter was butchered elsewhere certainly supports the conclusion that Gregor killed Rhaegar's son, but it doesn't prove it. For example, the switch might have just been accomplished in that moment. But I think the storyteller gave us that bit to help us realize that Gregor really did murder the son of the man who knighted him. 

But wouldn't that make Elias character even stronger? Being ready to pretend the pisswaterkid to be Aegon the full way to save her son?

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