[Spoilers All] Boltons Misled - Karstarks and the GNC?

[Harrenhal Haunter]

This is my first time posting to the forum, so please forgive me if my information on theories is out of date, or if this is the wrong place to potentially tie together the books and the show.

In this episode, Ramsey claims, in response to Roose saying that murdering the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch, that they don't need all of the houses, but the few he does choose to list gave me pause. The scene to which I am referring starts around 31:53. Ramsey, Lord Karstark, and Roose are discussing the latest news about Sansa and her likely destination, Castle Black.

 

Quote

Lord Karstark: "Ned Stark's last surviving son."

[...]

Lord Karstark: "Your hold on the North will never be secure as long as a Stark can walk through that door."

[...]

Roose: "Murder the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch? You'd unite every house in the North against us."

Ramsey: "We don't need every house in the North. The Umbers, the Manderlys, and the Karstarks command more soldiers than all the other houses combined. With their support, none could challenge us."

Lord Karstark: "The Starks lost my house the day King Robb cut off my father's head. It's time for new blood in the North."

[...]

 

I can understand if the Karstarks are truly on the side of the Boltons, but what has happened in the show to give the Umbers and the Manderlys cause to truly be on the side of the Boltons, if anything? This could be a hint of the Great Northern Conspiracy, and when I look at Lord Karstark's words from the point of view that he is trying to goad the Boltons into a bad move, it seems as deliberate and planned as the fact that Lord Karstark was utterly unmoved by Roose being murdered in front of his eyes.

Lord Karstark's argument plays upon Ramsey's own fears: the last surviving threat in the form of a son. All of their work being undone by the mere existence of this son. And, in particular, the insistence on a need for "new blood in the North," which Ramsey could easily apply to himself and the introduction of a Bolton line through himself instead of Roose.

Having Ramsey in charge will certainly make the destruction of House Bolton easier, as Ramsey does not know how to play the game as Roose did. Since the show can't have the conspiracy play out with Baratheon and Bolton exhausting each other, getting House Bolton to implode on its own due to Ramsey's short-sightedness makes more sense.

The major questions I come away with from this are: Would Karstark wish for the Boltons to self-destruct, or does newfound hatred for the Starks win out? What are the motivations for House Umber and House Manderly in this? Did the show have them switch loyalties in the Red Wedding? I don't have time to go back and watch the episodes that might pertain to this such as the Red Wedding, but perhaps someone else knows off the top of their head.

[Hos the Hostage]

The Karstark males in the books are not part of GNC. They are on Roose's side. Except perhaps Harrion who is a prisoner of the Crown. The book Karstarks have even lesser reason to be involved in GNC, if there is a GNC. It looks like they are simply choosing the safer option by siding with Ramsay. If the Lannisters come North with an army, this same Lord Karstark may turn over to their side. Umbers now, I don't recall who died in show's version of Red Wedding, but they could easily have a young son or favorite uncle captive of the Boltons or the Crown which will ensure their loylaty to Ramsay - at least on the surface. From the banners we saw in the trailers, the Umbers clearly side with the Boltons. But it is possible that they are part of a ploy and will turn over to the Starks's side at the right/wrong moment. Hpwever, the 'next time on GoT' seems to show an Umber bringing a gift (RIckon most likely) to Ramsay. Anyone who'd do that is clearly not a Stark supporter. I really hope show!Manderlys do not become truly loyal to Boltons, because that is a great insult to Wyman Manderly's speech from the books. Even if they do side with Boltons, they should turn on their back mid-battle at least.

As for the intentions of Karstarks or Umbers in supporting Ramsay, maybe they are actually supporting Littlefinger (for money or food for winter), who knows. In the show, that guy turns up like everywhere. People are already theorizing him to be the show!Harpy.

[SamuelVimes]

Interesting question. It made me go back and check, and realize that I was bringing my book knowledge into the show, which at this point is probably not a great idea, since they're diverging significantly. I was thinking that while Ramsay is an idiot for thinking he'd hold the allegiance of people who are at best grudgingly allied with House Bolton, at least those houses are officially allied with House Bolton--but that's in the books. In the series... all we know is that the Greatjon is a Stark loyalist but wasn't at the Red Wedding and now he's off somewhere, maybe with an army, maybe in the Riverlands, and there's no reason whatsoever to think House Umber would ally with the Boltons. Ditto the Manderleys--we've only met one, and he died at the Red Wedding, so again, no earthly reason they'd ally themselves with the Boltons. 

I suppose it's possible Ramsay's an even bigger fool than he's been this episode, and those houses weren't Bolton allies at all, but Roose would definitely know and doesn't correct him on it, and it seems like Ramsay would at least know who is (supposedly) a Bolton ally. 

Just as in Dorne, where viewers were basically asked to take on faith that a lot of politicking went on somewhere behind the scenes to ensure that not a single member of the guard minded when their prince was killed in front of them and so forth, the show's skimped a heck of a lot on background for what's going on in the North. We're supposed to take on faith that two major northern houses, both known as Stark loyalists, are now Bolton allies. This all increases my concern that we're in for a season that focuses on action at the expense of the behind-the-scenes intrigue...and that behind-the-scenes stuff is, of course, the actual darn game of thrones, so I am not OK with it being shortchanged! 

[RadSam]

The fact that he mentioned the Manderly's made me finally start thinking we're going to get a full on GNC. Not just an old lady saying 'The North Remembers' only to be killed a few episodes later.

I need Frey Pie but more than anything, I need Wyman's 'The North Remembers' speech.

[ssls6]

I did not take that scene as "I have these houses" rather "with these houses you have enough men".  Maybe through the Manderly's play that role along with the umbers.  Next week's previews made me pause at one line and wonder.

[White Harbors Wrath]

Well the Umbers are safely out of the pro-Stark equation. With Smalljon showing up next week with a gift for Ramsay (widely speculated to be Rickon since the Umbers is where she was taking him after they parted ways with Bran & co) there's no way we're not in for weeks of suspenseful "I have Rickon Stark" torture tension to remind us Ramsay is bad. This is textbook D&D...Rickon Stark is our motivation for Bastard Bowl...it's going to be ham-fisted.

I don't see how the showUmbers come back from that, they're just another casualty of D&D. There was the casting of a Northern lord who "switches allegiances"...once could assume now, with name mention it's Manderly. Though since they like to change things it's probably Bob Manderly...and who knows how they'll botch that.

[Oberyn1104]

I wonder if it wasn't just Harald(whoever that is) Karstark who knew about the plot but also the Manderlays and Umbers. It does not appear Davos is going to Whiteharbor so I wonder if Ramsay contacted them and said that he would give them justice for their families members that Roose conspired to kill at the Red Wedding. He does have plausible deniability since he was at the Dreadfort at the time and its unlikely Roose would tell more people than necessary about the plot.

[Oberyn1104]

Do you think its Rickon or is it fake Arya stark that the Umbers bring?

[episodenone]

Oddly -- [or not so] I have been wondering for the longest time why Ramsey ever seems to show fear of Roose -- I was planning to post it here and ask if someone could help me to understand the rationale.

The Voila! Ramsey answers my questions for me once and for all!

As for what seems to me to be a sentiment that Ramsey is some piker who won't last long -- a couple things stand out:

Foreshadowing:

Roose tells Ramsey his methods are inherently flawed for the very reasons we all know. Then Ramsey kills him. So my presumption is that those were Roose's last prophetic words to his son -- and he'll get his -- likely the Manderly's do him in as a Pie Face if we are lucky.

However - Robb's actions created enemies in his own ranks. So how it all plays out in the North is unclear - though Ramsey has made his dreams a reality one way or the other -- so i wouldn't count him out in the near term. Longer term though - i can't see how he lasts. Then of course -- is it possible Sansa is pregnant???  That would keep the Bolton line alive and rife for some show story plot twists.

I just think Ramsey is smarter than we think and actually IS playing the game quite well. Time will tell.

I still am glad that Ramsey did what he did -- made perfect sense. Though i presume i'll never get to know why Roose [who I would guess was never as sadistic as his child] made Ramsey so nervous - especially once he legitimized him

[RhaenysBee]

Ramsey: "We don't need every house in the North. The Umbers, the Manderlys, and the Karstarks command more soldiers than all the other houses combined. With their support, none could challenge us."

5 hours ago, ssls6 said:

I did not take that scene as "I have these houses" rather "with these houses you have enough men". 

^ This. 

Those words don't mean that the Boltons have all those houses. It means that Ramsay thinks, winning all those houses would be enough to rule the North. 

The Karstarks have every reason to side with Ramsay, it would make zero sense if they were the part of some secret Stark supporting plan. Robb Stark raised the North to take revenge on the Lannisters for chopping off Ned Stark's head. Of course the Karstark boy would do the same for his father. 

As for the other houses, they will obviously side with the Starks, namely Sansa and Rickon as one of them currently holds Rickon. But since neither or them are eligible to lead the north against Ramsay, of course Jon will step in and take lead as one bastard against the other and root Ramsay out of Winterfell and the north. 

I personally can perfectly do without the Manderly speech especially Wylla Manderly and the Frey Pies are blatant bullshit, in my opinion (as is Jojen pie). 

[RhaenysBee]

Sorry about the accidental double post

[Xcorpyo001]

There are enough hints to make us know that the Karstarks and the Umbers are 100% on Ramsay's side.

And since Jon has to be shown as the underdog in this fight, Ramsay will somehow get the Manderly troops as well. Let's hope the great Lord Manderly is not sacrificed on the altar of show Ramsay's awesomeness. Ramsay might flay several Manderly family members and keep the rest hostage or something like that. If this is the case, let's hope they find a way to switch sides during the battle.

Umber's allegiance with the Boltons can easily be explained by the wildlings present south of the Wall. He might seen them as a threat to his lands, and blame Jon for it. The Manderly lands on the other hand are way south so the wildlings shouldn't play a large role in their final decision.

[Tadco26]

If they already have all the support they need to hold the north, why did they betray the Lannisters and marry Ramsay to Sansa in the first place?   Why betray the king who made Ramsay legitimate?  The king that made Roose Warden of the North?

 

[Anarcho]

4 minutes ago, Tadco26 said:

If they already have all the support they need to hold the north, why did they betray the Lannisters and marry Ramsay to Sansa in the first place?   Why betray the king who made Ramsay legitimate?  The king that made Roose Warden of the North?

 

This is a good point. In the book, Roose clearly needs 'Arya' to hold the other Northern Houses (apart from Dustin and Ryswell, who genuinely seem to support him) to him (and possibly to guard against the Lannisters stripping him of his title as WotN). In the show, Roose doesn't appear to be getting any other help from Northern houses (or even, weirdly, from the Freys). Marrying Ramsay to Sansa didn't win them any help from Littlefinger either, so what was the point, other than just sticking to a butchered version of the book plotline?

[Tyrek Lannister]

I have a hard time believing that the Manderlys will side with and fight alongside Ramsay Sue till the bitter end. Well, unless the showrunners want to butcher the entire GNC completely and make it dumber meaning "battle of the bastards, who cares about the rest, which is unfortunately possible.

[Miley the Monstrous]

6 hours ago, White Harbors Wrath said:

Well the Umbers are safely out of the pro-Stark equation. With Smalljon showing up next week with a gift for Ramsay (widely speculated to be Rickon since the Umbers is where she was taking him after they parted ways with Bran & co) there's no way we're not in for weeks of suspenseful "I have Rickon Stark" torture tension to remind us Ramsay is bad. This is textbook D&D...Rickon Stark is our motivation for Bastard Bowl...it's going to be ham-fisted.

I don't see how the showUmbers come back from that, they're just another casualty of D&D. There was the casting of a Northern lord who "switches allegiances"...once could assume now, with name mention it's Manderly. Though since they like to change things it's probably Bob Manderly...and who knows how they'll botch that.

Or maybe there is a gnc of sorts between the umbers and manderlys, and the gift (which I think is osha) is part of an elaborate plan to get inside winterfell and do...something? 

[Tadco26]

50 minutes ago, Anarcho said:

This is a good point. In the book, Roose clearly needs 'Arya' to hold the other Northern Houses (apart from Dustin and Ryswell, who genuinely seem to support him) to him (and possibly to guard against the Lannisters stripping him of his title as WotN). In the show, Roose doesn't appear to be getting any other help from Northern houses (or even, weirdly, from the Freys). Marrying Ramsay to Sansa didn't win them any help from Littlefinger either, so what was the point, other than just sticking to a butchered version of the book plotline?

He also doesn't appear to be facing any significant northern resistance.  Really this episode is the first mention of any specific Northern lords that I can remember.  It's a problem the show often has in that they make up their own original story lines, but want to hit critical book moments so they force the story back there even if it makes no sense in the context of the show.

[mattnj81]

I'm thinking the gift is a fake Rickon. Ramsey flays him, outraging the North but the Umbers keep the real Rickon safe. Either that or fake Arya. I'm just rooting for the Umbers to be pro Stark, there's no reason for them to support Boltons unless they have hostages like in the books. They lost men at the RW. 

[Tadco26]

The show isn't exactly consistent in making sure their changes make sense.

[Anarcho]

1 hour ago, Tadco26 said:

He also doesn't appear to be facing any significant northern resistance.  Really this episode is the first mention of any specific Northern lords that I can remember.  It's a problem the show often has in that they make up their own original story lines, but want to hit critical book moments so they force the story back there even if it makes no sense in the context of the show.

With the obvious exception of Bolton and Stark, I think the Greatjon and Rickard Karstark are the only Northern lords to have physically appeared. The Glovers have been mentioned a few times but never seen. Dustin have been mentioned once, by Arya to Tywin, Torrhen's Square has been mentioned but not the Tallharts, and obviously the Reeds and Mormonts have appeared. I'm pretty sure this episode was the first mention of the Manderlys, and I don't think Ryswell, Flint, Hornwood, Cerwyn or the Mountain Clans have been mentioned in any capacity.