The Mountain vs. The Viper & the Hammer of the Waters (Mythical Astronomy of Ice and Fire 4)

[Nissa]

I just finished the part with the hammer of the waters so you already covered the point that the cotf wouldn't by nature want to destroy nature (haha).

In your quote in the CoK it sounds like Maester Lewin says "the greenseers tried to bring the hammer of the waters down upon the neck"  so Maester Lewin makes that distinction as well. I honestly don't know enough about the cotf and greenseers from my one time read of the series so I'll have to investigate.

[LmL]

5 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

As I mentioned in a recent discussion of the Gods Eye lake (in reply to one of your comments in fact), the Children knew Dorne as 'The Empty Land' and it's a place isolated by mountains with no trees around, I've often thought that the Children would regard the Breaking of the Arm as an acceptable loss, considering that their way of life was terminally threatened.

Where did you get that "empty land" quote from? That one is not ringing a bell for me.  We don't know if Dorne was mostly desert 10,000 years ago either - the connection of the Shivering Sea and Summer Sea through the newly opened straights would no doubt have a drastic impact on global climate, as would a catastrophe like the Long Night moon disaster I am theorizing about. But to get to the heart of your thinking here, would the cotf sacrifice part of the earth to stop a great evil? Mayyyyybe. Maybe. I don't think so, but I can see someone (Martin) conceiving of this. But there are still some issues:

• The moon explosion (the calling down of the hammer) destroyed a lot more than the Arm - it nearly wiped out all life on earth, if the sun was really blocked for more than 5 years or so, due to starvation. 
• It also BROKE THE MOON - are you implying that the cotf would literally break one of our moons to stop the First Men from cutting down trees? That seems well out of bounds for any creature claiming to be in harmony with the earth and nature
• There still exists the issue of closing the barn door after the horses got out, which is mentioned by Yandel in TWOIAF. Why break the arm after thousands of FM have been crossing for centuries? Martin gives this obvious and inescapable logical issue with the "cotf dropped the hammer" theory because he wants us to question it. It doesn't make sense.
• We've never seen anything to indicate the cotf have anything close to or similar to this power, to cause earthquakes. Literally nothing. 

I'd also like to add that we don't even know if the cotf actually practice blood magic. We've only seen humans offering blood to weirwoods. Unless Jojen paste is partly true, we have nothing to indicate the cotf would even massacre a large number of humans or cotf to work blood magic... to break the moon... all to save the trees. I just don't find that idea to be credible, and I never did, even before I was on to any of this moon disaster stuff. 

5 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

In addition, the Hammer seems to be the sort of weapon that is inaccurate and clumsy; not really suitable for targeted attacks on ringforts. This issue is compounded by the Hammer only being able to affect coastal locations.

Perhaps, but we really have nothing to indicate the level of control they had, if they indeed possessed this power at all. If they were able to focus their efforts on a general region like the arm of the Neck, then simply causing a few quakes in the most populous First Men area would turn the tables. I mean, you'd only have to cause one small earthquake - all you need to do is TELL THEM ahead of time, "we're going to earthquake you tomorrow, because we can do that kind of thing," and then do it. The FM would grovel and beg for mercy. How can you fight someone who can cause freaking earthquakes? Not only does in not make sense to break the arm after so many FM were across - I mean this literally does nothing to help you agains the FM already there - it makes even less sense to think they'd waste all their power or expendable sacrifices to do something so useless. A much better strategy would be to send them where the FM were. 

And if they didn't have very precise control over where they can cause a quake, then its even more reckless to nature and the earth to try to trigger one so massive as to collapse the land bridge. That would be a reckless and desperate act, and the cotf don't really come across that way. 

We don't know if the Hammer is restricted to coastal locations either - we only know that the Neck and the Arm were supposedly damaged by the hammer. The Neck is pretty wide, anyway, I don't think it's fair to say the entire Neck is coastline. Besides, humans overwhelmingly tend to live near water, so any ring fort near the water would make a great target, if indeed there is a restriction to coastal areas. Oldtown? Starfall? Storm's End? Casterly Rock? Iron Islands? If you're counting the Neck as coastal, then Highgarden is within reach too (pun intended). 

No, I think it's inescapable that striking the arm makes no strategic sense if it was cotf trying to stop FM. The Neck, yes, that's more strategic, because the FM seem to have been more populous in the south at first. Breaking the Neck would divide the land, certainly. But only if you were a civilization that knows how to build fortresses on a chokepoint like the Neck (pun intended) and then defend them.  Moat Cailin clearly serves this purpose - but it's built out of freakishly large black blocks of basalt (cottage sized blocks) which may or may not be oily black stone (based on an ambiguous quote from ADWD). That was not built by any cotf we know. I don't even think it was built by First Men - it's completely unlock anything else built by the FM. I mean completely. The only thing that's close to that style, with blocks that big, is Yeen, which is built of oily black stone. 

But Yeen is in Sothoryos. 

Point it, whomever built Moat Cailin is someone we haven't heard of. And we can assume it was built before the Hammer was dropped, because you cannot build a structure with cottage sized stone blocks in a swamp. There is no way to support them of lift them in a swamp. And clearly, Moat Cailin has been badly damaged by a very traumatic event. I think we know what that event is - the Hammer of the Waters, a.k.a. one or more moon meteor impacts. 

As for the ones who built MC, I suspect it was the greenseer who actually did break the moon - whatever race of people Azor Ahai was from. the Great Empire of the Dawn folks. The Green Men, the Horned Lords, the Old Ones, call them what you will - I think they are the missing link here. They were the OG greenseers, at least the first human / humanoid ones, and many things that they did were later attributed to the cotf, because they are greenseers we have left. I think these horned lord greenseers actually did many things we attribute to the cotf, like turning stone to liquid while constructing Storm's End (a folktale attributed to the cotf and Bran the B); building the Wall with old spells (same old spells that are at Storm's End, I think); calling down the Hammer with blood magic, perhaps from MC as it is said; creating the Others; creating the NW (why do you think the NW always swore their vows in front of heart trees before the Andals came? They are swearing vows to the greenseers!)

I will have full write-ups on this in the near future. The point is, all of the evidence I can see points to the idea that the cotf did not drop the Hammer. 

5 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

As for the Bloodstone Island thing, in-universe I think it's probably a reference to all the blood that has been spilt on the stony island, although I accept that GRRM may be using it as foreshadowing.

Yep. Everyone has a different threshold for what can be coincidence and what is likely intentional. For me, finding the names of Bloodstone and Sunspear next to the broken arm sings out pretty loudly, for all the reasons I laid out. The name Grey Gallows applies to the Odin and Yggdrasil ideas present in the concept of greenseers and weirwoods - because Azor Ahai was a greenseer.   Yggdrasil is Odin's astral projection "horse," as well as his gallows tree. He's hung on the tree to gain magical sight, which he uses to mount the world with astral travel. I think that's how you crash a comet into a moon, or at least one of the things you need, a greenseer. 

[LmL]

6 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

Im sorry, having said I wouldn't, I can't resist asking a couple of question prior to reading the essay 

 

1. You maintain that Planetos magic does work to a great extent with the Laws of Nature, so given that the red comet passed by just a few years ago, wouldn't it be incredulous for it to appear so soon? I kind of had it that Drogon will symbolise the comet, with Dany riding on his back.

Yes, probably, although we have no idea what the orbital period of the comet is. Originally, Martin was going to have a 5 year gap too, so that would have been 8 years. Bottom line, I don't think the comet hitting the moon was an accident - I think humans did it with magic, although I am keeping those ideas mostly under my hat. Ergo, if the comet returns, it may well be because someone called it back. Someone bound it to their will. If only there was a device to bind comets. Maybe a horn called "comet binder."

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2. Not connected to this specific essay, but a query about your term "mythical astronomy" - would a better term not be "cosmology", in the older sense of the word, like 'Biblical cosmology', 'Chinese cosmology', 'Babylonian cosmology'? Or do you reserve that strictly for the creation of Planetos, of which I don't think we have any clues. Or better perhaps, "Primeval myths" if you're going to encompass the origins of the COTF?

Mythical astronomy (which is my own term) definitely serves a cosmological function, as all myth does. I discussed this in an essay I wrote about George Martin writing modern mythology in the Campbelian sense.  The ting I want to focus on with this parsing is that astronomy - observation of the cycles of the heavens - underlies most, if not all, world mythoglogy, like a backbone.  The cosmological function of astronomical myth is complex - it's more than just a way to remember how long various cycles are and when the rainy season comes and when the equinox is, etc. All of that happens, but there is more. The astronomical cycles form the framework of the characters and events; then esoteric fables instilled with the values and ideals of a given culture are grafted on top of this skeleton. The result is a very subtle and complex way of storing knowledge about the world - specifically, knowledge about man's relationship with the world around him (and above him). 

Mythical astronomy means myths based on observation of the stars. And as I said, this is actually most world mythology - it's a specific aspect of myth which I feel is under-appreciated. It applies just as easily to the real world as it does to ASOIAF. In fact, all Martin is really doing is imitating the structure of real world myth. Every people from every part of the world has those old flood myths (and Atlantis myths, but that's another can o worms), because there was a period of intense global sea level rise and glacial flooding (as well as a couple of major comet impacts) between 13,000 BC and 7,000 BC. If an event as momentous and calamitous as a Long Night- inducing meteor impact occurred 10,000 years ago on earth, you'd get myths much like we see in ASOIAF about fire from the heavens and falling hammers and moons which explode with dragons... in fact, we actually have discovered that we did have such a massive impact event - this would have been the "Younger Dryas" comet which kicked off the 1200 cold snap known as the Younger Dryas. I quoted it in my third essay / podcast:

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The Brulé people of the Lakota nation in modern-day South Dakota have a legend of a  ‘fiery blast [that] shook the entire world, toppling mountain ranges and setting forests and prairies ablaze . . . Even the rocks glowed red-hot, and the giant animals and evil people burned up where they stood.  The rivers overflowed their banks and surged across the landscape. Finally, the Creator stamped the Earth, and with a great quake the Earth split open, sending torrents . . . across the entire world until only a few mountain peaks stood above the flood.’

The Ojibwa people of the Canadian grasslands refer to a comet called the Long-Tailed Heavenly Climbing Star which swept low through the skies, scorching the Earth and leaving behind ‘a different world. After that, survival was hard work. The weather was colder than before.’ 

Ojibwa shaman Fred Pine says “It came down here once, thousands of years ago. Just like a sun. It had radiation and burning heat in its tail.  It was just so hot that everything, even the stones, were cooked. The giant animals were killed off. You can find their bones today in the earth. It is said that the comet came down and spread his tail for miles and miles.”

 

You see what I mean. Events like this are always remembered in myth - this one is a very straightforward recounting, but of course there are plenty of more metaphorical or allegorical examples of similar ideas. 

As for the specific title, none of the things you suggested say quite what I want to say. It's not just cosmology, and it's not just ancient myth. It's specifically astronomy-based myth. 

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3. Oh, one more although I'm sure I'll read your explanation in one of your essays: you're saying both Dany AND Jon are Azor Ahai incarnate, at the same time? That seems weird. Have you looked into the possibility that Azor Ahai and TPTWP/The Last Hero are different 'messiahs' that became conflated in ancient times? I'm mulling over the notion that we have a dualistic universe ruled by R'hllor, Lord of Light and The Great Other. R'hllor being effectively the Satanic one with AA his antichrist, and Jon being the Apocalyptic christ-like figure that needs to defeat her, with - subversion of subversions - the aid of the Others (okay, that's my crazy hypothesis which I'd appreciate you deconstructing!).

I don't think this is like reincarnation, just reprisal of a world archetype. Think about the events of the Dawn Age creating disharmony which needs to be remedied - the repressing cycles of events and characters will play out, over and over, until shit is set right... something like that. Azor Ahai reborn is manifest in a lot of ways, I think. Jon and Dany, yes, but many other characters manifest the symbolism too... I think Martin could be saying one or more of several things by doing this. Perhaps it's mostly reader easter eggs - like he's hiding the main pattern of events everywhere as a kind of game. Perhaps he's saying that in his universe, there is a repressing karma like mechanism such as I described above. Perhaps Azor Ahai reborn is more like a curse carried by the blood of the dragon, and periodically dragon blooded people will incarnate as someone carrying the magical baggage of Azor Ahai and his foul deeds. I think this is one of the more interesting questions to ponder, once you accept that a bunch of people are Azor Ahai reborn in some way. 

I haven't given too much thought into the PTWP vs. AA prophecies. I suspect they could refer to a pair of people that are like a yin and yang to each other. I can't help but notice that Dany is a silver queen with a black shadow for a spirit animal, and Jon dresses in black and bleeds the "black blood" of the NW, but has a "white shadow" spirit animal. Very yin and yang. 

Lightbringer is the same. Is it a flaming sword? Dany's dragons? The red comet? The Wall or the Watch itself, the sword in the darkness and the light that brings the dawn? All of these, I think. All of them certainly symbolize Lightbringer - it's just a question of what the meaning is behind that. 

P.S. if you like talking about all this, you should really try my essays and podcasts! Lots of stuff like this!

[House Cambodia]

Thanks for the detailed response. I'll be setting aside the weekend for your podcasts and essays!

[LmL]

23 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Thanks for the detailed response. I'll be setting aside the weekend for your podcasts and essays!

WOO!! There are no words more magical than those in all the land

Like I said, judging on your comments, you're interested in some of the same stuff I am, so hopefully you'll enjoy the cast.  If you can listen, do that, I recommend. I have a nice home studio (meaning good sound quality) and I have been told I have a good reading voice (which certainly surprised me at first, lol). 

[House Cambodia]

^ Ha, my first degree was in  Biblical Studies; I'm not religious but it gave me a deep appreciation of close readings of mythical and ancient texts. I've not really employed those intellectual muscles since I was a Tolkein fan decades ago, so I'm enjoying your analyses immensely.

[Maester of Valyria]

17 hours ago, LmL said:

Where did you get that "empty land" quote from? That one is not ringing a bell for me.  We don't know if Dorne was mostly desert 10,000 years ago either - the connection of the Shivering Sea and Summer Sea through the newly opened straights would no doubt have a drastic impact on global climate, as would a catastrophe like the Long Night moon disaster I am theorizing about

  The children of the forest called Dorne the Empty Land, and for good reason.

-TWOIAF, Dorne.

While I completely agree that the Breaking of the Arm by whatever means would have had profound impacts on the climate, it is certainly possible for a desert to have formed in Dorne naturally. This link contains an interesting (although slightly tongue-in-cheek) possible explanation.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

The moon explosion (the calling down of the hammer) destroyed a lot more than the Arm - it nearly wiped out all life on earth, if the sun was really blocked for more than 5 years or so, due to starvation. 

I'm afraid that this is the thing that I find hardest to fully swallow: an exploding moon would not just set life on the planet back, it would utterly obliterate anything living that was larger than a rat. Humanity wouldn't just be decimated: it would be completely wiped out. The best example from Earth's history is the meteorite that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago: only the small mammals survived (for which all humans are thankful).

17 hours ago, LmL said:

It also BROKE THE MOON - are you implying that the cotf would literally break one of our moons to stop the First Men from cutting down trees? That seems well out of bounds for any creature claiming to be in harmony with the earth and nature

The Children's very way of life was threatened: I imagine that at least a section of their society would have been willing to go to any lengths to stem the tide of invaders. However, this is predicated upon the breaking moon theory, which while I accept is extremely well substantiated by your research, is not my preferred explanation for the Breaking (I go for a sea level rise).

17 hours ago, LmL said:

There still exists the issue of closing the barn door after the horses got out, which is mentioned by Yandel in TWOIAF. Why break the arm after thousands of FM have been crossing for centuries? Martin gives this obvious and inescapable logical issue with the "cotf dropped the hammer" theory because he wants us to question it. It doesn't make sense.

You've said it yourself: the chronology is not constrictive. I realise that this presents a problem, but I don't believe it to be insurmountable: perhaps it was simply the last throw of the dice for a desparate and dying race, or perhaps they wanted to do what you've been talking about and send a message to the First Men, but refrain from killing anyone or destroying valuable land in the process.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

We've never seen anything to indicate the cotf have anything close to or similar to this power, to cause earthquakes. Literally nothing. 

To be fair, we know very little about the full extent of the Children's powers. We also know (read 'strongly suspect') that it is possible to interfere with geological processes, as we see with the Doom of Valyria and possible Faceless Men involvement. I for one can't see the Faceless Men as having greater powers than the Children at their apex. Of course, time and lack of numbers may have diminished the Children's powers in the present day, but that's a different matter, and may even explain why they haven't made many grand displays of power: the power is no longer accessible to them, but it once was.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

I'd also like to add that we don't even know if the cotf actually practice blood magic. We've only seen humans offering blood to weirwoods. Unless Jojen paste is partly true, we have nothing to indicate the cotf would even massacre a large number of humans or cotf to work blood magic... to break the moon... all to save the trees.

Why would the humans have adopted the practice of blood magic into their new religion if it wasn't already a constituent part of their new religion? We are told several times that powerful magic often requires blood.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

Perhaps, but we really have nothing to indicate the level of control they had, if they indeed possessed this power at all. If they were able to focus their efforts on a general region like the arm of the Neck, then simply causing a few quakes in the most populous First Men area would turn the tables. I mean, you'd only have to cause one small earthquake - all you need to do is TELL THEM ahead of time, "we're going to earthquake you tomorrow, because we can do that kind of thing," and then do it. The FM would grovel and beg for mercy. How can you fight someone who can cause freaking earthquakes? Not only does in not make sense to break the arm after so many FM were across - I mean this literally does nothing to help you agains the FM already there - it makes even less sense to think they'd waste all their power or expendable sacrifices to do something so useless. A much better strategy would be to send them where the FM were. 

And if they didn't have very precise control over where they can cause a quake, then its even more reckless to nature and the earth to try to trigger one so massive as to collapse the land bridge. That would be a reckless and desperate act, and the cotf don't really come across that way. 

I think that by the time the Children decided to break the Arm they were desperate and willing to try anything. They weren't that concerned with damage to the earth anymore, not when their entire civilisation (as well as that of their 'brothers' the giants) was under threat. And while the Children don't come across as reckless and desperate now, the interval of thousands of years (be it two or ten or any number in between) may have something to do with that: now they are just resigned to their fate.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

We don't know if the Hammer is restricted to coastal locations either - we only know that the Neck and the Arm were supposedly damaged by the hammer. The Neck is pretty wide, anyway, I don't think it's fair to say the entire Neck is coastline. Besides, humans overwhelmingly tend to live near water, so any ring fort near the water would make a great target, if indeed there is a restriction to coastal areas. Oldtown? Starfall? Storm's End? Casterly Rock? Iron Islands? If you're counting the Neck as coastal, then Highgarden is within reach too (pun intended). 

All the sites of the Black Stone are in coastal locations, with the exception of Yeen (which is by a river and was possibly supplied from the Isle of Toads) and Moat Cailin (debatable whether it even is a site of Black Stone). I think that the fact that the Children wanted to sweep away the whole Neck means that they weren't so concerned about its width: the 'Hammer' could just work its way inland. This tallies with my belief that the Hammer was the Waters (rising sea levels again).

17 hours ago, LmL said:

No, I think it's inescapable that striking the arm makes no strategic sense if it was cotf trying to stop FM. The Neck, yes, that's more strategic, because the FM seem to have been more populous in the south at first. Breaking the Neck would divide the land, certainly. But only if you were a civilization that knows how to build fortresses on a chokepoint like the Neck (pun intended) and then defend them.  Moat Cailin clearly serves this purpose - but it's built out of freakishly large black blocks of basalt (cottage sized blocks) which may or may not be oily black stone (based on an ambiguous quote from ADWD). That was not built by any cotf we know. I don't even think it was built by First Men - it's completely unlock anything else built by the FM. I mean completely. The only thing that's close to that style, with blocks that big, is Yeen, which is built of oily black stone. 

Of course we know that the Children didn't build structures. However if you assume that Moat Cailin is not Black Stone and is, as it appears to be, basalt, then it becomes conceivable that it was built by the First Men. You might then postulate that the Children took the castle by one means or another (crannogmen help maybe?), and then used it as a defensible base from which to work their magics.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

Point it, whomever built Moat Cailin is someone we haven't heard of. And we can assume it was built before the Hammer was dropped, because you cannot build a structure with cottage sized stone blocks in a swamp. There is no way to support them of lift them in a swamp. And clearly, Moat Cailin has been badly damaged by a very traumatic event. I think we know what that event is - the Hammer of the Waters, a.k.a. one or more moon meteor impacts. 

While of course the cause of destruction may have been a meteorite, could it not also have been the ravages of time, thousands of years of neglect, and the environmental problem of being situated in a swamp? This would seem to fit the ruined-but-still-not-completely-obliterated state of the castle.

17 hours ago, LmL said:

As for the ones who built MC, I suspect it was the greenseer who actually did break the moon - whatever race of people Azor Ahai was from. the Great Empire of the Dawn folks. The Green Men, the Horned Lords, the Old Ones, call them what you will - I think they are the missing link here. They were the OG greenseers, at least the first human / humanoid ones, and many things that they did were later attributed to the cotf, because they are greenseers we have left. I think these horned lord greenseers actually did many things we attribute to the cotf, like turning stone to liquid while constructing Storm's End (a folktale attributed to the cotf and Bran the B); building the Wall with old spells (same old spells that are at Storm's End, I think); calling down the Hammer with blood magic, perhaps from MC as it is said; creating the Others; creating the NW (why do you think the NW always swore their vows in front of heart trees before the Andals came? They are swearing vows to the greenseers!)

Interesting idea about Storm's End, but could you remind me why would the human greenseers have wanted to break the moon either (I'm having a brain-fade on your explanation for that)? Also, what's your theory on the Others, and if they aren't natural then mightn't the Children have created them as a weapon against the First Men. Long lives, long memories and all?

17 hours ago, LmL said:

Yep. Everyone has a different threshold for what can be coincidence and what is likely intentional. For me, finding the names of Bloodstone and Sunspear next to the broken arm sings out pretty loudly, for all the reasons I laid out. The name Grey Gallows applies to the Odin and Yggdrasil ideas present in the concept of greenseers and weirwoods - because Azor Ahai was a greenseer.   Yggdrasil is Odin's astral projection "horse," as well as his gallows tree. He's hung on the tree to gain magical sight, which he uses to mount the world with astral travel. I think that's how you crash a comet into a moon, or at least one of the things you need, a greenseer. 

I know I'm questioning a lot of your stuff here, but please don't mistake that for general cynicism: I do not necessarily believe everything you say, but a lot of it I do, and I have enormous respect for you and your work. Some of the ideas you support are actually very similar to the ones I had myself before I joined the online fan community.

 

By the way, what's your opinion on Lucifer Dryland?

[House Cambodia]

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I'm afraid that this is the thing that I find hardest to fully swallow: an exploding moon would not just set life on the planet back, it would utterly obliterate anything living that was larger than a rat. Humanity wouldn't just be decimated: it would be completely wiped out. The best example from Earth's history is the meteorite that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago: only the small mammals survived (for which all humans are thankful).

I think we're likely looking at far smaller fragments than that meteorite/asteroid, and they would have travelled a much lesser distance. I imagine the impacts being more like the scale of the Tunguska event but with 20 or so crashing onto Planetos, their combined effect causing a nuclear winter. Is that how you envisage it, LmL?

[Maester of Valyria]

1 minute ago, House Cambodia said:

I think we're likely looking at far smaller fragments than that meteorite/asteroid, and they would have travelled a much lesser distance. I imagine the impacts being more like the scale of the Tunguska event but with 20 or so crashing onto Planetos, their combined effect causing a nuclear winter. Is that how you envisage it, LmL?

Any fragments large enough to break a land bridge the size of the Arm, shatter the Thousand Islands or cause a crater the size of the Shrinking Sea, let alone cause such a long and severe ice age, would be large enough to create a mass-extinction event all by themselves.

[LmL]

19 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

I think we're likely looking at far smaller fragments than that meteorite/asteroid, and they would have travelled a much lesser distance. I imagine the impacts being more like the scale of the Tunguska event but with 20 or so crashing onto Planetos, their combined effect causing a nuclear winter. Is that how you envisage it, LmL?

Yes, more or less. Also, we have to remember this is fantasy and not sci-fi; the networks were big enough to cloud the skies but not big enough to kill absolutely everything. Don't forget magic was involved. 

15 minutes ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Any fragments large enough to break a land bridge the size of the Arm, shatter the Thousand Islands or cause a crater the size of the Shrinking Sea, let alone cause such a long and severe ice age, would be large enough to create a mass-extinction event all by themselves.

Not necessarily. The Younger Dryas (as 1200 year mini-ice age) seems to have been triggered by a series of comet impacts on the North American ice sheet. Many died, but not all. There's also several instances of volcanoes or comets clouding the sky (at least in part) for several years to be found in tree ring data and the like. There's a enough of a window there for George to posit impacts which darken the skies and kill most, but not all, life. Consider also that a comet impact wouldn't explode or crack a moon in real life either. I think the explanation is simply magical enhancement of natural disasters, just with the Doom being a volcano on magic steroids or the Others being a manifestation of the worst aspects of winter. I tend to think we are supposed to follow the textual metaphors primarily, and then figure out how it can make sense, in a magical universe. The text indicates the comet cracked the moon open, so I just assume the comet was packing some magical firepower and that was that. Volcanic explosions don't leave a magical toxicity 400 years into the future, but it's a magic volcano, so whatever, it's all good . 

I also suspect the cotf might have been the difference, helping mankind to survive with their cave system and underground food supply that we see in ADWD. This might also explain the motivation for the Pact - if the cotf helped man survive, and helped the Last Hero defeat the Others, we have a compelling reason for the FM to adopt the religion of the cotf. 

@Maester of Valyria, I have more responses to your responses above, which I'll get to later when I have a moment. I very much appreciate your take here; this is the conversation I wanted to start.

[Maester of Valyria]

1 minute ago, LmL said:

Not necessarily. The Younger Dryas (as 1200 year mini-ice age) seems to have been triggered by a series of comet impacts on the North American ice sheet. Many died, but not all. There's also several instances of volcanoes or comets clouding the sky (at least in part) for several years to be found in tree ring data and the like. There's a enough of a window there for George to posit impacts which darken the skies and kill most, but not all, life. 

I also suspect the cotf might have been the difference, helping mankind to survive with their cave system and underground food supply that we see in ADWD. This might also explain the motivation for the Pact - if the cotf helped man survive, and helped the Last Hero defeat the Others, we have a compelling reason for the FM to adopt the religion of the cotf. 

@Maester of Valyria, I have more responses to your responses above, which I'll get to later when I have a moment. I very much appreciate your take here; this is the conversation I wanted to start.

Yes, but the Younger Dryas impacts were confined to North America, and were not dispersed worldwide (although the effects of the impacts were felt globally). If the Dryas impacts had been spread over the entirety of the Earth's surface then we'd have had global extinction of megafauna, including humans. And while humanity might hang on if a volcano or meteorite clouded the skys for a few years, there's no way that large lifeforms could survive for any period of time longer than that, such as the length of time the Long Night is supposed to have lasted for.

That idea about the Children is very interesting, although I do wonder why they would have gone to such great lengths to aid the survival of their great enemies and invaders. Also, the Children seemed confined to Westeros (and I suppose a small part of Essos, depending on who the Ifeqevron are). The thing is, eastern civilisations such as Yi Ti and the Patrimony seem to have survived just fine without the Children's help. I mean, they couldn't all have hidden on Marahai; the histories would reflect that shared experience, and the island just isn't big enough.

I look forward to reading your responses! I always enjoy talking with you, and I'm glad that you appreciate my input.

 

[House Cambodia]

LmL, I'm still making my way carefully through your corpus, but a passing thought, if you will.

The more I read of your analyses, the more I appear to see  dualism at play.

Sun: Fire: Red: Dragons: acolytes of R'hllor

Moon (no heat of its own): Ice: Black: Crows, Ravens, Wolves, Wargs (I'm going to assume you can't warg into a dragon), Night Watch

Swords - Dawn, Ice - Ice

Lightbringer - Fire

Azor Ahai - from Asshai, purely Essosi myth

The Last Hero, the Prince That Was Promised - are we sure he/they are Essosi myths or could they be Westerosi, like the Eldric guy?

Rather than conflating the contrasts as you do and seeing the same motifs everywhere, I wonder how it would look if you saw the patterns and motifs in terms of Manichaen dualism, Ahura-Mazda, Yin&Yang?

What's your best guess as to when The Others were "activated"? Certainly some time before ASOIAF opens since Mance has been gathering the Wilding to flee for some time. In the period of the War of the Five Kings, when Jon (?) was born - and Daenerys? I'm wondering if there is any textual evidence to refute my notion that they were activated at this time due to the birth of Daenerys, AA, the bringer of the next Long Night.

[LmL]

3 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Yes, but the Younger Dryas impacts were confined to North America, and were not dispersed worldwide (although the effects of the impacts were felt globally). If the Dryas impacts had been spread over the entirety of the Earth's surface then we'd have had global extinction of megafauna, including humans. And while humanity might hang on if a volcano or meteorite clouded the skys for a few years, there's no way that large lifeforms could survive for any period of time longer than that, such as the length of time the Long Night is supposed to have lasted for.

That idea about the Children is very interesting, although I do wonder why they would have gone to such great lengths to aid the survival of their great enemies and invaders. Also, the Children seemed confined to Westeros (and I suppose a small part of Essos, depending on who the Ifeqevron are). The thing is, eastern civilisations such as Yi Ti and the Patrimony seem to have survived just fine without the Children's help. I mean, they couldn't all have hidden on Marahai; the histories would reflect that shared experience, and the island just isn't big enough.

I look forward to reading your responses! I always enjoy talking with you, and I'm glad that you appreciate my input.

 

I'm about to address your previous points, but I wanted to point out that the YD comet did actually break into multiple large pieces, and some them also hit the European ice sheet, according to the latest research. I definitely don't think we can say that multiple impacts would de facto equate to "everyone dies." There's enough wiggle room for a fantasy author to work with, no question. 

We also don't know how long the LN even lasted - I suspect no more than six years, if we are thinking realistically, because of the inevitable mass starvation. I always tend to remember that the mists of time obscure all of this. We can't take any one specific detail as gospel, and honestly even some of the large details are highly suspect.

I mentioned cotf and blood sacrifice last time, and I stand by the fact that we have never seen a cotf kill anyone. I also don't agree that the FM must have picked up their bloody sacrifice from the cotf. Is it possible? Very, perhaps even likely - I'm merely pointing out that we don't really know, at all, and that we should not make assumptions in a series where the author thinks about various kinds of misinformation quite a bit. I think it's equally plausible that the FM corrupted, changes, or added to whatever they learned from the cotf. 

There is a ton of evidence pointing towards the First Men having a much tighter relationship with greenseers in the Dawn Age, or of the kings of the First Men being greenseers (essay forthcoming). I do not think the story was simply that the FM invaded and burned constantly and then they made the pact and that was that. I think that's likely to be an oversimplified account. The story I am seeing is one where the children taught the First Men their greenseer magic, but eventually, some human greenseers (or perhaps my green men / horned lords) used that magic for ill. The moon breaking was committed by Azor Ahai, but I keep finding signs that he was a greenseer. Again, not a cotf, but a greenseer. One of the stories about Battle Isle is that the ancient mariners who built it had come to Westeros to learn from the children. I think that's an important detail. 

You asked why break the moon? Well, all the themes around Azor Ahai and the Bloodstpne Emepror seem to parallel Prometheus and related stories - it's all about trying to be a god and stealing the heavenly fire and knowledge. That's usually the theme of most Morningstar related myths, and it seems like Martin is rolling with that. The Bloodstone E worshipped that black stone - the moon meteor - and worked dark magic. I say he made Lightbringer from that black meteor, so he's literally possessing the fire of the gods, and I suspect the oily black stone enables magic as well. Perhaps there were other magical motivations - perhaps he drew power from the LN somehow. 

Or maybe, it was something of an accident. Perhaps he was trying to do something more glorious but in his hubris, he fucked up. It's something along those lines. Durran stole a goddess from heaven, Grey King stole heaven's fire, Lann stole gold from the sun, Night's King had to have his moon pale maiden, Hugor Hill had seven stars pulled down from heaven for his crown, Azor Ahai and Galladon of Morne seem to have received magic swords from divine women, while the story of Dawn just straight out says "meteorite." Stealing from heaven, trying to be like God or be immortal - that's the theme here. 

[The Young Black Dragon]

Nothing constructive or furtuitous to add, just been a fan of your essays and podcasts since your started. Originally your handle drew me in, I have a soft spot for old Lucy. But I love your work, as someone mentioned you have a very unique and different way of approaching asoiaf topics and it's refreshing. Much like the Davo's fingers podcast (highly suggest to anyone who hasn't checked them out). Also, great job on the readings on this one. One of my wishes is to create my own audio books for asoiaf. There are so many options for a project like that! Keep up the good work my dude, I'll still be listening/reading/wishing I was good enough to partake in the fandom like many of you lol. 

[LmL]

@The Young Black Dragon thanks my friend and glad you're enjoying it! Even if you don't have anything specific to add it means a lot when anyone tells me they are enjoying the cast.

At first the readings were just done in a different voice so as to provide contrast and clear delineation between he text and my commentary, but we've been having so much fun doing voice acting that we are ramping it up as we go. Tons of fun! The next one will feature my very talented friend doing male voices, and he's in another class altogether. You'll love his Tyrion and Maester Aemon voices

I haven't checked out Davos's fingers but I've heard about it a few times now. I'll have to check it. What kind of analysis do they do?

[LmL]

!

[The Young Black Dragon]

1 hour ago, LmL said:

@The Young Black Dragon thanks my friend and glad you're enjoying it! Even if you don't have anything specific to add it means a lot when anyone tells me they are enjoying the cast.

At first the readings were just done in a different voice so as to provide contrast and clear delineation between he text and my commentary, but we've been having so much fun doing voice acting that we are ramping it up as we go. Tons of fun! The next one will feature my very talented friend doing male voices, and he's in another class altogether. You'll love his Tyrion and Maester Aemon voices

I haven't checked out Davos's fingers but I've heard about it a few times now. I'll have to check it. What kind of analysis do they do?

I am even more excited for your next cast now, and you are one of my main asoiaf people to check on. I absolutely love the writing and production process, being another amateur musician and artist or whatever. If only I had the computer capable to do the production work I'd like. I also see your next episode is a available, I'll take notes to have a more insightful and impactful response. And the Fingers do a chapter by chapter review and analysis, but they, as a group, are not entrenched with either the forums or tv show. They have really great and unique views, as well as maintaining relatability and enjoyment. I fan boyed a message to them a few casts ago. 

[LmL]

Mythical Astronomy Ch 5: Tyrion Targaryen

Essay:

https://lucifermeanslightbringer.wordpress.com/2016/05/09/tyrion-targaryen/

Podcast:

http://lucifermeanslightbringer.podomatic.com/entry/2016-05-21T08_13_27-07_00

 

[LmL]

13 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

LmL, I'm still making my way carefully through your corpus, but a passing thought, if you will.

The more I read of your analyses, the more I appear to see  dualism at play.

Sun: Fire: Red: Dragons: acolytes of R'hllor

Moon (no heat of its own): Ice: Black: Crows, Ravens, Wolves, Wargs (I'm going to assume you can't warg into a dragon), Night Watch

Swords - Dawn, Ice - Ice

Lightbringer - Fire

Azor Ahai - from Asshai, purely Essosi myth

The Last Hero, the Prince That Was Promised - are we sure he/they are Essosi myths or could they be Westerosi, like the Eldric guy?

Rather than conflating the contrasts as you do and seeing the same motifs everywhere, I wonder how it would look if you saw the patterns and motifs in terms of Manichaen dualism, Ahura-Mazda, Yin&Yang?

Hey thanks for the comment. I'm not sure how far you are into things, but the yin and yang themes begin to take prominence in my writing as the series goes on. I'm building up to a huge comparison between ice and fire.

I'm not understanding the tension you are perceiving between dualistic ideas and comparative mythology. The same motifs are everywhere, but each is translated in the cultural terminology of that people writing the myth - the Ironborn myths are a great example. There is duality everywhere, and the ice and fire duality is obviously the titular stage of equilibrium battles, but it's also not so neat as you're speculating above. The Others come in the night, yes, but they are "pale shadows" and "white shadows," and they wield shining, luminescent swords. Meanwhile, the dragons are associated with fire, obviously, but also darkness and the color black. Black swords, black banners, black magic for that matter. Dragons bring darkness and swallow up the stars. George likes to mix these up a bit. Remember that the yin side also contains a dot of yang, and vise-versa. Ice burns and fire is frozen, in ASOIAF, and George emphasizes these weird contradictions in man ways. Consider Ned's sword, one of the first things we see in AGOT. It's a black dragon sword, called Ice. Is that ice or fire? Both, in a weird way, just like the Others have burning stars for eyes. There's a deep mystery here and I'm working may way through it as best as I can.

My new podcast considers a certain angle on the question of "is there a connection between Azor Ahai and Lightbrinegr and the Last Hero an his dragonsteel?"

13 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

What's your best guess as to when The Others were "activated"? Certainly some time before ASOIAF opens since Mance has been gathering the Wilding to flee for some time. In the period of the War of the Five Kings, when Jon (?) was born - and Daenerys? I'm wondering if there is any textual evidence to refute my notion that they were activated at this time due to the birth of Daenerys, AA, the bringer of the next Long Night.

Man that's a real stumper. Dany's birth is as good a guess as any. I've heard so many theories, and none of them stand out above the rest. There was the comet Rhaegar saw the night Aegon was born. There was Ned killing the Sword of the Morning at the ToJ. Perhaps the union of Stark and Dragon-blood (RLJ) is significant.  I agree Dany may either bring the new LN or end it, or both, and I agree the Others have been stirring for years. I really don't have a strong theory on that however. Dany's birth did during a storm remembered as the worst in Westerosi memory, that's pretty significant if you are looking for signs that Dany's birth provoked consequences from the earth itself. 

[House Cambodia]

Thanks very much for your response LmL. Sure, I've got more to read, especially as I keep clicking on links you reference and spin off into reading the thoughts of the likes of Durran Dundarron and Lost Melnibonian. I was reading last night about Odin and Yggradsil (sp?) and wondering if the Three-Eyed Raven/BR ought to be worked into that discussion.

One thing I find interesting is that there are broadly speaking two types of literary analysts - you are possibly the foremost proponent of what I'd call the static camp, finding the same symbols and motifs pervading or cropping up in the whole series; the other camp (the dynamics?) are the ones who focus on character development and changes. The latter is more my bent which is maybe why I so much enjoy your 'yin' to my 'yang'!

Talking of which, I take your point that there is ying in yang and vice versa and that does complicate looking for patterns in GRRMs writings, but I'm still tied to the overall picture of a duality culminating in a messiah and anti-messiah figure duking it out in an Armageddon-like clash.