Jeor Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 I think there's quite a gap between Froome and the rest. He's going to have to really stumble for anyone else to have a chance. The only possibility of that happening is if the Giro (despite the extra week in between) really is still bothering him. Even so, with a strong team we might not really see that until the very late stages, and it's not exactly a gameplan for rival teams to wait for a Yates-like implosion in the final days. This may sound harsh given he's only recently come into being a team leader and has been injured, but Porte has never really put together a Grand Tour run. He's never had a podium finish in a Grand Tour - admittedly because he has never really gotten the chance as a domestique - but his record and experience as a contender in a 3-week race is actually quite unproven. And as we saw with Simon Yates, that does count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 8 hours ago, Jeor said: I think there's quite a gap between Froome and the rest. He's going to have to really stumble for anyone else to have a chance. Have to disagree with that. I think the gap is very small and there will be a couple of guys who will be very close to him. On top of that, the Tour has never seen so stacked a field of candidates as it has this year. Roglic is an interesting dark horse, we don't yet know if he can do this 3 weeks. Dumoulin will be close. Nibali is a big question mark but let's assume for the moment that he will be good like he usually is. Movistar has 3 excellent candidates to make it really hard, Landa and Quintana will be super motivated and Valverde is in stellar form this year. Porte, Bardet, Daniel Martin, Adam Yates possibly after what he's seen his brother do. Finally, Uran. froome never dropped him last year and he is in good shape. Opposed to that team Sky has their best team in years though. Incredible team strength. Aside from all of this, there is a packed field of sprinters in a way I have not seen in years. Basically, everybody is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Calibandar said: Aside from all of this, there is a packed field of sprinters in a way I have not seen in years. Basically, everybody is there. Does that really matter though? Surely Sagan will just clean up the green jersey again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 The real battle will be for stage wins, and for that there are about 8 great candidates. Green jersey is secondary for the sprinters, stage wins is what matters and then Sagan is still a great contender, but not a standout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Sagan's a lock for the green overall, but with sprinters like Kittel, Cavendish, Greipel all there plus some worthy second-stringers like Demare, Matthews etc the stage wins are going to be a crowded field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 6, 2018 Author Share Posted July 6, 2018 9 hours ago, Jeor said: Sagan's a lock for the green overall, but with sprinters like Kittel, Cavendish, Greipel all there plus some worthy second-stringers like Demare, Matthews etc the stage wins are going to be a crowded field. Big reputations, but none have shown any real form this year. Out of the 3 Cav is the only one who can still win when not at his absolute best, as he's clearly the smartest sprinter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 Well, what on earth happened on that stage. An innocuous flat stage and already we have time gaps with the GC contenders. And the stage win goes to a debutant and not one of the established names. Good call @BigFatCoward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Interesting start so far 2 of the strongest TTT teams have leaders who have lost time and Quintana is further back again. Nibali looks in prime position and should be the best of the gc guys on the cobbles. Especially when him and Sagan decide to team up with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 10 hours ago, lmanion said: Interesting start so far 2 of the strongest TTT teams have leaders who have lost time and Quintana is further back again. Nibali looks in prime position and should be the best of the gc guys on the cobbles. Especially when him and Sagan decide to team up with each other. After the ttt Froome and Porte should be back level with the rest of the gc riders (except Quintana). G Thomas should be in yellow after today, and is a great shout for an even bigger lead after the cobbles, assuming he is allowed to go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Bmc have Van Avermet and TJ up there as well so could be interesting if they were to win the ttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 2 hours ago, lmanion said: Bmc have Van Avermet and TJ up there as well so could be interesting if they were to win the ttt TJ getting to wear the yellow jersey would be a tragedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 Todays TTT couldn't have gone any better from a spectacle point of view, Quintana will have to go early and hard to put the 2-3 mins into Froome he needs (assuming he accepts he will lose at least a minute in the final TT) and he along with Landa are the only ones who i think can. current standings of main contenders. G. ThomasJungels +4Dumoulin +8Uran +32Majka +47Fuglsang +48PorteZakarin +49Valverde +50LandaFroome +52Yates +57Nibali +1.03Bardet +1.12KruijswijkRoglicMollema +1.13Martin +1.35Quintana +2.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Im not seeing Thomas as good enough in the mountains over 3 weeks to be a real contender but hope im wrong as he is in a great position. Havent looked into it but possible that Van Avermet keeps yellow until after the cobble stage now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 3 hours ago, lmanion said: Im not seeing Thomas as good enough in the mountains over 3 weeks to be a real contender but hope im wrong as he is in a great position. Havent looked into it but possible that Van Avermet keeps yellow until after the cobble stage now? There is a 2km @ 7% finish on Thursday. Either Thomas or Gilbert could take the required time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 First little GC dig and nobody lost any real time, other than Dumoulin and Bardet, but that was due to mechanicals. 2 more boring stages then Sunday is the Roubaix day. Got to think that Thomas (if he stays upright) puts bags of time into many of the GC contenders on that stage, even if Sky keep all their strongmen in reserve to help Froome if he gets in trouble. First real climbing stage on Tuesday, then 2 more Weds and Thursday, by this time next week we should know who the genuine contenders are. Overall its still set up very nicely for the final 2 weeks, got to think that sky can't believe their luck so far with not having to do any work defending their lead. The sky train will probably be offensively good in the pointy end of the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Roubaix stage is going to be really interesting Thomas should be strong in his own right but some other gc guys have good teammates/mates to help them through. Sagan and Nibali are supposedly still good friends from their Liquigas days and Majka is on Sagans team so he could be one to watch as well but think if he has trouble it would be Burghart or Oss to help him, Bora have quite a strong team for that classics sort of stage. Porte has Van Avermet, Yates has Hayman I think Out of the GC guys only Thomas is yet to have a real issue, he stayed in the front group on stage 1 when all the crashes were happening, in a very good team for the ttt and hasnt had a mechanical issue. I am very interested to see if he can gap the other guys on the cobbles and then how he climbs into the later part of a 3 week tour in the high mountains and his recovery into an itt. The standings this time next week and the way guys perform in the alps is going to be very interesting. I really hope that last tt is close enough with a few guys that its not a victory lap for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Shame that Dumoulin lost 52 seconds due to broken wheel and then got a 20 second penalty as well, very dubious that, as Astana had been stayering for miles behine their car earlier in the day and Fuglsang and others were not penalized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 Yeah that seems bullshit to me he really didnt spend much time behind his team car compared to other guys that have had issues and were recovering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 14, 2018 Author Share Posted July 14, 2018 Roubaix tomorrow, I was worried i'd have to split my time between this, England in the WC final and Fed in the Wimbledon final but now I can give it my full attention. Don't mind what happens as long as any time gained or lost is due to something other than crashes or mechanicals. Expect G, Tommy D, Fuglsang and Nibs to do best of the GC contenders, Froome and Valverde best of the rest. Quintana, Bardet and Landa to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Im interested to see what BMC does with Van Avermet if they give him free reign to go for it for himself or if they are all in for Porte and use him to try and keep Porte in touch with other GC guys. Im picking Sagan for the stage win and Thomas to be in yellow after the stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.