BigFatCoward Posted July 4, 2017 Author Share Posted July 4, 2017 Wednesday should see a proper separation and indicate who will compete. 6km at 8+% isn't a leg destroyer. But this early on it will cause some people problems. Sky normally dominate the first mtf and nothing makes me think they won't again. Expect froome and Porte to be the class is the field with the other gc contenders coming in dribs and drabs, but nobody losing more than 30-45 seconds. Contador is biggest worry as short and steep isn't really his thing anymore, much less explosive than he used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 And we have a solo breakaway on a flat stage. I feel a bit sorry for him. Totally doomed, of course, and his legs are going to be shot to pieces after this stage, but I suppose at least his sponsors and team get some coverage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Sagan DQ seems a bit harsh, I thought the original penalty was plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 yeah thats well harsh on sagan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Woah that was a shock. No Green Jersey for Sagan for the first time since 2011. He'll have to wait now to eclipse Zabel's record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Im a bit torn on this. On the one hand the penalty seems harsh, on the other I'm not sure whether a dq on the stage would be enough. There needs to be consistent application of this though, sprinters are always being dicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 It's just a shame he's out at as well, after already losing Valverde, these are two of the most interesting riders in the Tour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 The pre-show here in Australia is taking Sagan's side and are bashing the decision to disqualify him, showing lots of other incidents that didn't get punished (including archival footage of Cavendish's own discretions in previous editions of the Tour). This has probably influenced me but even before I saw the pre-show, watching the crash a few times over earlier today, two things stuck in my mind 1. Sagan held his line and never deviated...Cavendish was the one trying to barge his way in 2. It's questionable whether Sagan's elbow actually was the prima facie cause of the crash. It looks really bad, but the elbow does look like it comes after Cav is already starting to lose it. I think the original relegation from the stage, points penalty and time penalty would have been appropriate and that this is a bit over the top. However, on the other side of it, you can see why they did it - Sagan does look incredibly bad in the video in real-time. I think more than anything it's the sudden imposition of the harsh penalty that makes it a bit dodgy - if they're going to punish things consistently, I suspect a few more people are going to get chucked out of Grand Tours. As it is, the green jersey is wide open now. Demare is looking pretty good for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 I get the feeling that if Cav had been uninjured and got up immediately, Sagan would still be in the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmanion Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 I saw a really good slow motion break down of the crash on facebook and it shows cav making initial contact and he is going down even before sagans elbow comes out to regain his balance. edit: here it is https://streamable.com/j7gqb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 Enjoyable Stage 5! Nice maiden tour victory for Aru, who will wear Polka Dots tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 So Aru, Porte, Martin and Bardet were the only ones able to keep up with Froome when the going got tough. We can draw some preliminary conclusions from this, but not too much. Quintana doesn't look right, and this was unexpected. On the other hand the damage is not that severe and the question is, can he get better as the Tour goes on. Same for Contador, is he really past his prime? He looks it, but then we know that the last few years he's lost skills in short and explosive climbs. His team says he will be better in the real mountain stages. We'll see but I am sceptical. Simon Yates looked very good, and as I hinted at last week, Rigoberto Uran might be in for a very good Tour for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 6, 2017 Author Share Posted July 6, 2017 Other than Froome (who i now see as the big favourite, since he is presumably riding into form with the double in mind), i could see any of the top 10 making the podium. After sunday we should have a descent idea of who the top few contenders are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Froome the nailed on favourite, but Porte didn't look in any trouble at all. I don't know why BMC spent all their energy directing the chase, but a tactical blunder on one stage isn't going to stuff up the team in the long term. Also, although Froome had a lot of friends to begin the climb with, the Sky fellas dropped off pretty quickly when the going got tough. Aru is probably the dark horse at the moment. Realistically any challenger to Froome will have to have a great second time trial. Froome's TT skills are good and will always put him reliably within a few seconds of the TT leader, so it gives him a bit of a safety blanket. On that basis, I think Quintana and today's Contador are not going to be able to get him (they'd have to amass big leads in the mountains), and Porte has the best chance. Aru had a decent TT the first go as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 6, 2017 Author Share Posted July 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Jeor said: Froome the nailed on favourite, but Porte didn't look in any trouble at all. I don't know why BMC spent all their energy directing the chase, but a tactical blunder on one stage isn't going to stuff up the team in the long term. Also, although Froome had a lot of friends to begin the climb with, the Sky fellas dropped off pretty quickly when the going got tough. Aru is probably the dark horse at the moment. Realistically any challenger to Froome will have to have a great second time trial. Froome's TT skills are good and will always put him reliably within a few seconds of the TT leader, so it gives him a bit of a safety blanket. On that basis, I think Quintana and today's Contador are not going to be able to get him (they'd have to amass big leads in the mountains), and Porte has the best chance. Aru had a decent TT the first go as well. 're the sky train dropping off. I read that landa and henao rode their own pace to save themselves as kwiatkowski, nieve and Thomas were still there with only 3km to go. Also many were speculating bmc drilled it to make the sky train weaker on final climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calibandar Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Jeor said: Froome the nailed on favourite, but Porte didn't look in any trouble at all. I don't know why BMC spent all their energy directing the chase, but a tactical blunder on one stage isn't going to stuff up the team in the long term. Also, although Froome had a lot of friends to begin the climb with, the Sky fellas dropped off pretty quickly when the going got tough. Aru is probably the dark horse at the moment. Realistically any challenger to Froome will have to have a great second time trial. Let's not even consider the TT. If we have still have tension as to who is going to win this Tour by the time of the final weekend, I'll be more than pleased. We had an unexciting one last year and if the top contenders can stay close to each other throughout, it'll be good. You'd still back Froome to be the best GC man in that final TT, but let's worry about that when we get there. The main worry was that Froome would drop everyone uphill, which is still an option of course. But it might not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Given that the course is not that strenuous in terms of mountain stages, I'm hopeful that the second time trial might still have some interest in it, even if it's only an outside chance. But you're right...it's unlikely that the second TT will be a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted July 8, 2017 Author Share Posted July 8, 2017 So, tomorrow should really show who is in form, though the gap between the first 2 climbs and the last one is a bit shit, and the flat after the final climb up mont du chat i could also do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Looking forward to the stage today. As BFC says the only pity is that there's a long flat leading up to the last climb, which somewhat dents the impact of the first two HC climbs. No point attacking on the first two climbs if there's a long flat for everyone to catch up to you again. I'm guessing there'll be an initial breakaway by all the King of the Mountain wannabes, but all the main GC guys will stay together until the final climb when things will hopefully get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 5 hours ago, Jeor said: Looking forward to the stage today. As BFC says the only pity is that there's a long flat leading up to the last climb, which somewhat dents the impact of the first two HC climbs. No point attacking on the first two climbs if there's a long flat for everyone to catch up to you again. AG2R have disagreed with you and it's made this much more entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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