Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

BigFatCoward

Cycling 2019 - the British are coming.

Recommended Posts

Dumoulin needs to have a good day today still to keep his confidence for tt if he stays within 1.30 of quintana its pretty well wrapped up. Might even be a good thing he doesnt have the jersey for this stage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Itt is going to be really interesting now dumoulin should be favourite but has looked spent the last 2 days. Im backing him still but i think pinot is an outside shot for the upset win has been looking the best in the last couple of days. I dont think quintana has the legs or tt ability to hold on but he does have the advantage of knowing what everyone else is doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really want Dumoulin to win, and i don't see anything other than a mechanical costing him 30 seconds + that would prevent that.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, Richie Porte looks amazing at the Dauphine, Froome is nowhere near where he normally is at this time of year but maybe he is coming undercooked as he has made the Tour, Vuelta double a major target and last year showed it is possible.  Has to be assumed he knows what he is doing, and even then he is still second going into today's final stage.

Tour de Suisse also starts today but is mainly a chance for second tier contenders to have some glory.  

current rankings for tour

Froome/Porte

Quintana/Contador/Valverde

the field

Team Sky look like they will have a ridiculous team, with even Kennaugh who looked amazing up the Alpe yesterday not guaranteed a spot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am quietely wondering what form Dumoulin is in in the Tour de Suisse. It's a big race, if he could somehow excel here again...

Forgot to mention here what a great win it was for him in the Giro. Very pleased with that, and ever so well deserved. It wouldn't have been nearly as close if he hadn't lost a full two minutes in the sanitary disaster stage.

Dauphine:

Porte looks incredible. Comfortably the best rider here in a very strong field. Concern: Is he in his best shape too early? I hope not, because we need to see him in the Tour at his best.

Froome- not bad but as you say, poorer shape than normal. Hard to say what that signals. Team Sky was not great in the Dauphine by any means, I wonder who will end up being selected.

You have to wonder what Fuglsang can do in the Tour. You could write him off and say he won't do it in the GC but he's never been this strong, not even close. I think he's dangerous. Aru's first big race has shown he is up there with the best as well. Bardet looks good. Buchmann is a big surprise. I wonder what sort of shape Pinot will be in when the Tour begins, he could be the second big French contender.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great ride from Porte but a brilliant steal from Fuglsang to take out the Dauphine.

Froome looks a little underdone but by the Tour he should be fine. Porte looks in fine form, but BMC aren't nearly as strong a team as Sky, so I would still put Froome as the favourite.

Valverde and Contador just don't look like they have a Grand Tour win in them anymore. They might take out individual stages here and there and pull off an attack, but they don't seem to pose too much of an overall threat to the real contenders. I expect some of the up and coming riders (Bardet, Pinot, etc) will soon overtake them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we have the tour route yet? Are they taking them over pavé again this year? As that's one of the things that Froome has been hit and miss on, and an early shake up there could really open it up for Porte (and I'm switching from my Quintana #1 Porte #2 hopes to Porte #1 this year).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, karaddin said:

Do we have the tour route yet? Are they taking them over pavé again this year? As that's one of the things that Froome has been hit and miss on, and an early shake up there could really open it up for Porte (and I'm switching from my Quintana #1 Porte #2 hopes to Porte #1 this year).

Go to steephill, you can see all the profiles there, can't link from my phone. No cobbles, shite mountains, not enough time trial km' s. It's an utterly crap and uninspiring route. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

very poor route this year its like they saw what the giro did and thought how do we have the opposite of a good grand tour

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Froome isn't in top shape this could be the most open tour for years. However we have to assume he knows what he is doing, and team sky is absurdly strong. Therefore I go 50% Froome, 25% Ritchie Porte, 25% the field.  Of the rest I'm interested to see if Fuglsang can bring his dauphine form, and if Contador can have an Indian summer and go ballistic and mix things up. Also Aru winning Italian road race decisively means he could be a wildcard along with bardet as both like to mix things up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Other riders of interest:

Uran- Cannondale lead guy. Finally a good GC from him? Has been quiet so far this season.

Pinot leads FDJ- How good is he now after a few weeks of rest. You can imagine he'll not let Bardet take all the shine.

Gesink, Roglic and Bennett from the Dutch team, what can they do?

Meintjens, unexciting but very good uphill.

What shape will Contador be in? He has a very good helper in Pantano, and Mollema as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I imagine pinot goes for KOTM. 

Roglic could win both tts, but probably needs more than 36 km total tt to top 10 in gc. 

Looking at my shift pattern I'm off for the few decent stages that there are, however I'm not particularly enthused by the route at all. Top form cav could have won shitloads of these boring stages, he must be gutted he is coming back from illness. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything I've seen says it's a boring route with basically only two proper mountain stages and very small time trials.

On the one hand, people will say it could make it interesting as the time gaps in GC will be very small so it should stay close for the majority of the Tour. But the big problem on the other hand is I can see a yawn fest where all the main contenders keep on finishing in the same time on every stage except for the two mountain stages where they might go crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not concerned about the route. It's always a mix between a difficult route and what the riders are willing to do.

So now they will have to make the difference on fewer mountain stages, and there are a lot of contenders that need to make a difference somewhere. This could well mean an increased amount of attacks when it's less expected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hoping some of the flatter courses get interesting due to cross winds or breakaways. Stage 11 last year was awesome, love to see another replay of something like that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Calibandar said:

I'm not concerned about the route. It's always a mix between a difficult route and what the riders are willing to do.

So now they will have to make the difference on fewer mountain stages, and there are a lot of contenders that need to make a difference somewhere. This could well mean an increased amount of attacks when it's less expected.

It's possible there will be more unexpected attacks, but I think it's more likely that everyone will ride conservatively in the flat stages and they'll all be holding fire until they get to the couple of big mountain stages where they'll go crazy. It will make the rare mountain stages interesting, but that's only a handful of stages out of 21.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, here we go.  looking at photos of Contador he looks very thin, i think he has come correct.  First yellow jersey is wide open as the route is all power, even Sagan could win.  I'm going to go for Roglic, even though Martin will be desperate to take the first stage in Germany. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let the nocturnal three weeks (for an Australian) begin!

Tony Martin doesn't get the win. The big story is Valverde is probably out with a crash, poor guy. Massive hit to Quintana's chances if he's going to have to go without Valverde's help and protection.

Froome predictably the best of the GCers in the time trial at +12 and putting in around 30 seconds on Quintana and Porte.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man what a shame about Valverde. He's broken his kneecap so not only is the Tour over for him, the Vuelta is in question as well.

I am not sure what the normal recovery time is, you have people saying it's end of season and some who say Vuelta is still an option. He's been severly injured though, deep gash in his leg as well.

Izagirre out as well, a top 10 candidate. Still, Valverde is a big loss for this Tour.

Not too pleased to see Froome win 35 seconds on Porte and 40 plus seconds on Contador, Quintana, Aru, Bardet. I like seeing Froome in good shape but no one expected this sort of difference on Contador on Porte on 14km's, even with them taking it easy on a very slippery parcours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...