How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

[The Flayed Knight]

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

....

 Thank you! And I fully agree on Tywin. The idea that he would give up after Duskendale, especially after Aerys took Jaime--no way. 

 

Indeed. Most lords and noble houses never got away with slighting Tywin or the Lannister name without some form of repercussion, and as Aerys grew madder by the day and continued to insult Tywin's honor, there had to be something in the works from Tywin's perspective (aside from sitting on the side lines up until the Sack of KL at the end of Robert's Rebellion). 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

This is kind of silly. How exactly could Tywin have predicted that Brandon would charge off to Kings Landing and threaten to kill the Prince of the Realm or that Aerys would flip and execute Rickard for no real reason or that he would also want to execute Robert and Ned in the process.

There are just too many variables for anyone to have plotted the outcome.

 

I get that there is a need to make Tywin some kind of mastermind supervillain but this strikes me, like the tinfoil theory that he also had a hand in the events at Summerhall, a little ridiculous. Too many spinning plates for anyone to predict the outcome.

 

[NutBurz]

49 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

This is kind of silly. How exactly could Tywin have predicted that Brandon would charge off to Kings Landing and threaten to kill the Prince of the Realm or that Aerys would flip and execute Rickard for no real reason or that he would also want to execute Robert and Ned in the process.

It doesn´t take a Lex Luthor to see that Reckless Warrior vs Mad King with a thing for burning people would result in war.

Paranoid as Aerys was, anyone who slammed the gates a little harder would get a war in the making.

 

edit-what I mean is, Tywin didn´t require Aerys´ acts of cruelty, that Brandon was executed as a traitor would be plenty. Brandon was not in position to raise banners, nor apparently was he patient enough to warn his father. He was probably rather stupid like a good Stark and didn´t expect imprisionment. That´s not hard to foresse.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

4 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

It doesn´t take a Lex Luthor to see that Reckless Warrior vs Mad King with a thing for burning people would result in war.

Except it didnt lead to war. Brandon's death was not what led to war, infact it was not even the execution of the innocent Rickard that led to war it was the mad king demanding that Jon Arryn execute his wards, Ned and the Kings cousin Robert, that led to war.

Predicting that Brandon would overreact and the likes of Hoster and Brandon's lordling friends would not be able to control him is a fair enough assumption.

• That the mad king would then execute Brandon and his friends fathers as well is not.
• Or that he would also blame Brandon's younger brother
• Or that he would blame his cousin and the son of one of his best friends
• Or that Arryn and Hoster would rebel
• Or that the Crown would screw the war up so badly. Connington could have easily won the war at the StoneY Sept

There was just too many variables to predict.

4 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

Paranoid as Aerys was, anyone who slammed the gates a little harder would get a war in the making.

Clearly Rickard did not think so otherwise he would never have went to Kings Landing.

[Seams]

Thank you for working out this good theory! Some interesting and fun possibilities.

A lot of this fits with my own recent thinking about Tywin as an evil mastermind who excels at hiding his own role in some of the major plots and intrigues of recent Westeros history.

Your tie between the defeated opponents of the Knight of the Laughing Tree and Tywin, for instance, helps me to explain a gap in the symbolism. I realize many people in the forum don't care about the literary analysis, but I find it very helpful. The gap I couldn't close was the regular references to the crannogmen as frog-eaters and the close (but secret) association between Maggy the Frog and the Lannisters of Casterly Rock. I believe Cersei was not the only Lannister to demand a prophecy from Maggy the Frog; that Tywin also went to her years ago to learn whether his son would ever sit the Iron Throne. If Tywin has secretly employed the foes of the little crannogman from the Harrenhal tournament in key actions to undermine the royal family, this could explain the linked (but opposing) symbols of the fortune-teller and the frog-eaters. Interesting, too, that the heir of the Reed family is a famous green-seer who appears to be helping the Starks with a foretold destiny, while the descendants of fortune teller Maggie the Frog are helping Tywin Lannister. Or are they? Jeyne Westerling seemed genuine in her love for Robb Stark . . . Are House Reed and House Spicer opposites or two sides of the same coin?

Obviously, a lot of my Tywin / Maggy connection is speculative on my part. But we know Tywin is ambitious and we suspect that he had grown to hate King Aerys. I believe that he made a visit to the fortune teller as one of many steps to figure out how to get rid of his best friend/archenemy and to establish a Lannister dynasty - perhaps he was even in the room the night that Cersei and Melara heard the predictions about Cersei's future. (Years later, Tywin's corpse is notably overpoweringly smelly; Maggy says to Melara, "Your death is here tonight, little one. Can you smell her breath? She is very close." If the feminine pronoun refers to death as "she," it might not be a reference to Cersei pushing Melara in the well, but to Tywin, who is also famous for drowning people.) Even if Tywin just found out about Cersei's fortune at another session with Maggy, he would have realized that Cersei was a dead end in his ambitions to establish a Lannister dynasty - her children will be crowned but will all die before having children of their own. Maybe he is also aware that Jaime is the father of Cersei's children, so his usefulness as an heir is also limited. So Tywin is secretly pinning his hopes on Tyrion, even though he hates the idea that his ambitions rest on a son who doesn't fit the heroic stereotype. This could explain why he won't let Tyrion travel, demands that he refrain from foolish behavior in public, violently annuls Tyrion's early marriage, and why he sends Tyrion to be the Hand of the King. (I admit, it doesn't explain why he lets the trial go forward where Tyrion is accused of poisoning Joffrey.)

One interesting piece of evidence that may or may not be useful for this idea of Tywin trying to bring about a Maggy prophecy is whether Tywin is aware that Ned Stark found Jaime sitting on the Iron Throne after Jaime killed Aerys. If Tywin's fortune-telling from Maggy was similar to the three questions asked by Cersei, I can imagine Tywin asking, "Will my son sit on the Iron Throne?" Maggy could honestly answer yes, but this would be one of those famous cases where people misinterpret prophecy. Jaime sat on the Iron Throne for about five minutes and then stepped down without ever becoming king. Tywin may have been working to fulfill a prophecy that has already been fulfilled in a way he didn't expect or want.

Maggy may have also told Tywin that he would die while sitting on a throne in King's Landing.

There are parts of the good theory from your OP that I can't yet embrace, however. Maybe I will come around as I read more of the comments on this active thread, but I am selfish about pet crackpot theories of my own and find it hard to let them go. For instance, I don't believe Lyanna gave birth to Jon Snow in the Tower of Joy. I think it's essential that Jon was born in the North somewhere - my current thinking is that he was born in the Winterfell crypt. I also don't think Rhaegar was his father. I realize I am in the minority in this forum, and I don't mean to reignite the debate or hijack this thread. The reason I mention this is that I think the Rhaegar-kidnapped-Lyanna story is fiction; maybe the story was put out there by Tywin trying to cover up his actions or trying to please King Robert who was heartbroken about the "loss" of Lyanna.

I believe Lyanna left Winterfell on her own, after the birth of her baby. This idea dovetails with the OP again where you suggest that a "pink letter" of some kind was sent to Brandon Stark, causing him to rush to King's Landing to demand the release of his sister. He was accusing the Targaryens of a crime for which they were not guilty because Lyanna has not been kidnapped. But this false communication to Brandon could still have originated with Tywin or his henchmen for the purposes you describe: he wanted a conflict between the North and the Targaryens. Maybe Aerys and Tywin were both aware of a prophecy that some kind of alliance between the north and Storm's End would lead to the downfall of the Targaryen dynasty. Aerys' strategy was to wipe out the Stark heirs and Robert Baratheon; Tywin's strategy was to incite war that would solidify and motivate the Stark / Baratheon alliance.

The blue roses and the crowning of the "Queen of Love and Beauty" does seem to imply that there was some kind of spark between Rhaegar and Lyanna, though. I see the blue roses as a sly allusion to the Bael the Bard story, and a signal that Rhaegar is aware that Lyanna was carrying a secret child conceived out of wedlock. The Stark family did not want anyone to know Lyanna had been having an affair - the betrothal to Robert Baratheon was important to them and they didn't want it undermined. I admit that more evidence would be needed to confirm all of this, but we know from an early Tyrion POV that the Winterfell library contained books and scrolls not found in other libraries of Westeros. What if Lyanna was a bookworm, and had come across some stuff in the family library about a prophecy; perhaps the same prophecy that Rhaegar had discovered that motivated him to learn swordplay. What if Lyanna had contacted Rhaegar by raven, and told him that she was aware of a prophecy that seemed to involve him? Their first chance to meet and confer about this prophecy was at the Harrenhal tournament.

I also find it hard to embrace the idea that Tywin and Rhaegar were working together in any way. I think Rhaegar was a smart guy, and he would see that Tywin was a "keep your enemies closer" kind of ally, but not someone you would enlist to help depose your insane father. It seems more likely to me that Tywin was trying to implicate Rhaegar in the so-called kidnapping of Lyanna as payback to Aerys for making Jaime a member of the Kingsguard. You ruin my heir, I'll ruin your heir.

Well, I realize I am now wandering far afield from the OP. I do think that Tywin has been pulling strings behind the scenes and that he has a lot more blood on his hands than people realized during his lifetime. I like the original and well-reasoned thinking of your theory and I will come back and re-read a lot of the good ideas you have raised.

 

[norwaywolf123]

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

Thank you for working out this good theory! Some interesting and fun possibilities.

A lot of this fits with my own recent thinking about Tywin as an evil mastermind who excels at hiding his own role in some of the major plots and intrigues of recent Westeros history.

Tywin is not evil but is amoral. He is a sociopath borderline psychopath in my mind.

Cersei and Tyrion are also this.

Joffrey too.

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

Your tie between the defeated opponents of the Knight of the Laughing Tree and Tywin, for instance, helps me to explain a gap in the symbolism. I realize many people in the forum don't care about the literary analysis, but I find it very helpful. The gap I couldn't close was the regular references to the crannogmen as frog-eaters and the close (but secret) association between Maggy the Frog and the Lannisters of Casterly Rock. I believe Cersei was not the only Lannister to demand a prophecy from Maggy the Frog; that Tywin also went to her years ago to learn whether his son would ever sit the Iron Throne. If Tywin has secretly employed the foes of the little crannogman from the Harrenhal tournament in key actions to undermine the royal family, this could explain the linked (but opposing) symbols of the fortune-teller and the frog-eaters. Interesting, too, that the heir of the Reed family is a famous green-seer who appears to be helping the Starks with a foretold destiny, while the descendants of fortune teller Maggie the Frog are helping Tywin Lannister. Or are they? Jeyne Westerling seemed genuine in her love for Robb Stark . . . Are House Reed and House Spicer opposites or two sides of the same coin?

nice observation

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

Obviously, a lot of my Tywin / Maggy connection is speculative on my part. But we know Tywin is ambitious and we suspect that he had grown to hate King Aerys. I believe that he made a visit to the fortune teller as one of many steps to figure out how to get rid of his best friend/archenemy and to establish a Lannister dynasty - perhaps he was even in the room the night that Cersei and Melara heard the predictions about Cersei's future. (Years later, Tywin's corpse is notably overpoweringly smelly; Maggy says to Melara, "Your death is here tonight, little one. Can you smell her breath? She is very close." If the feminine pronoun refers to death as "she," it might not be a reference to Cersei pushing Melara in the well, but to Tywin, who is also famous for drowning people.) Even if Tywin just found out about Cersei's fortune at another session with Maggy, he would have realized that Cersei was a dead end in his ambitions to establish a Lannister dynasty - her children will be crowned but will all die before having children of their own. Maybe he is also aware that Jaime is the father of Cersei's children, so his usefulness as an heir is also limited. So Tywin is secretly pinning his hopes on Tyrion, even though he hates the idea that his ambitions rest on a son who doesn't fit the heroic stereotype. This could explain why he won't let Tyrion travel, demands that he refrain from foolish behavior in public, violently annuls Tyrion's early marriage, and why he sends Tyrion to be the Hand of the King. (I admit, it doesn't explain why he lets the trial go forward where Tyrion is accused of poisoning Joffrey.)

Im not sure did Cersei's chapter say that she pushed Melara? If not Tywin could be guilty.

I think that Tywin knows that Jaime is the father of Cersei children and even that he supports it even tho he is disgusted by the notion of incest as it would make Joffrey the first Lannsiter king of the Ironthrone or the first Andal king of the ironthrone just like Joffrey Lydden became the first Andal king of the Rock. (It also fits with my pet theory/wishfullfilment theory that Dany will give birth to a daughter who will be married to Tommen)  

Gives more reason to tolerate Tyrion id there is a prophecy around him even it Tywin did not believe in it.

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

One interesting piece of evidence that may or may not be useful for this idea of Tywin trying to bring about a Maggy prophecy is whether Tywin is aware that Ned Stark found Jaime sitting on the Iron Throne after Jaime killed Aerys. If Tywin's fortune-telling from Maggy was similar to the three questions asked by Cersei, I can imagine Tywin asking, "Will my son sit on the Iron Throne?" Maggy could honestly answer yes, but this would be one of those famous cases where people misinterpret prophecy. Jaime sat on the Iron Throne for about five minutes and then stepped down without ever becoming king. Tywin may have been working to fulfill a prophecy that has already been fulfilled in a way he didn't expect or want.

Was it not Cersei Tywin wanted on the Ironthrone?

Is there any scenario Jaime might become king? Or maybe in a twisted way he already is since he is the lover of the queen anf father of the prices and princess?

Maybe Jaime could marry Daenerys? If Lannisters get on the wrong side of fAegon they might declare of the Stormborn? Maybe Tyrion by this time will even support this?

Or like you said it's already happened with Jaime.

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

Maggy may have also told Tywin that he would die while sitting on a throne in King's Landing.

There are parts of the good theory from your OP that I can't yet embrace, however. Maybe I will come around as I read more of the comments on this active thread, but I am selfish about pet crackpot theories of my own and find it hard to let them go. For instance, I don't believe Lyanna gave birth to Jon Snow in the Tower of Joy. I think it's essential that Jon was born in the North somewhere - my current thinking is that he was born in the Winterfell crypt. I also don't think Rhaegar was his father. I realize I am in the minority in this forum, and I don't mean to reignite the debate or hijack this thread. The reason I mention this is that I think the Rhaegar-kidnapped-Lyanna story is fiction; maybe the story was put out there by Tywin trying to cover up his actions or trying to please King Robert who was heartbroken about the "loss" of Lyanna.

Why is it essential that Jon was born in the North.

Since you don't think Rhaegar is the father who is? Robert Baratheon? Howland Read? Hodor? Mance Raydar? Tywin  ?

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

I believe Lyanna left Winterfell on her own, after the birth of her baby. This idea dovetails with the OP again where you suggest that a "pink letter" of some kind was sent to Brandon Stark, causing him to rush to King's Landing to demand the release of his sister. He was accusing the Targaryens of a crime for which they were not guilty because Lyanna has not been kidnapped. But this false communication to Brandon could still have originated with Tywin or his henchmen for the purposes you describe: he wanted a conflict between the North and the Targaryens. Maybe Aerys and Tywin were both aware of a prophecy that some kind of alliance between the north and Storm's End would lead to the downfall of the Targaryen dynasty. Aerys' strategy was to wipe out the Stark heirs and Robert Baratheon; Tywin's strategy was to incite war that would solidify and motivate the Stark / Baratheon alliance.

When did Lyanna leave the North? Before or after the Tourney of Harrenhal

I think that Tywin, Kevan, Aerys, Rhaella and Rhaegar was aware of the STAB alliance. I think that Varys worked to weaken the L-TM Alliance.

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

The blue roses and the crowning of the "Queen of Love and Beauty" does seem to imply that there was some kind of spark between Rhaegar and Lyanna, though. I see the blue roses as a sly allusion to the Bael the Bard story, and a signal that Rhaegar is aware that Lyanna was carrying a secret child conceived out of wedlock. The Stark family did not want anyone to know Lyanna had been having an affair - the betrothal to Robert Baratheon was important to them and they didn't want it undermined. I admit that more evidence would be needed to confirm all of this, but we know from an early Tyrion POV that the Winterfell library contained books and scrolls not found in other libraries of Westeros. What if Lyanna was a bookworm, and had come across some stuff in the family library about a prophecy; perhaps the same prophecy that Rhaegar had discovered that motivated him to learn swordplay. What if Lyanna had contacted Rhaegar by raven, and told him that she was aware of a prophecy that seemed to involve him? Their first chance to meet and confer about this prophecy was at the Harrenhal tournament.

"Rhaegar is aware that Lyanna was carrying a secret child out of wedlock"

How can Rhaegar know this? Did Rhaegar know the father personally? Was Rhaegar the father? Did he just stumble into something and found it out? Don't say that Mance is the father. Who could the father be, a Northmen or a Southron?

Makes sense for the Starks to hide a oit of wedlock pregnancy.

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

I also find it hard to embrace the idea that Tywin and Rhaegar were working together in any way. I think Rhaegar was a smart guy, and he would see that Tywin was a "keep your enemies closer" kind of ally, but not someone you would enlist to help depose your insane father. It seems more likely to me that Tywin was trying to implicate Rhaegar in the so-called kidnapping of Lyanna as payback to Aerys for making Jaime a member of the Kingsguard. You ruin my heir, I'll ruin your heir.

I like this

49 minutes ago, Seams said:

Well, I realize I am now wandering far afield from the OP. I do think that Tywin has been pulling strings behind the scenes and that he has a lot more blood on his hands than people realized during his lifetime. I like the original and well-reasoned thinking of your theory and I will come back and re-read a lot of the good ideas you have raised.

 

There should be a spinnoff series about Tywin's life up to the end od Robert rebellion when Cersei married the king Robert.

- Intro: When Tywin goes to court to serve as Cupbearer

- Tywin talking against Genna-Emmon Frey marriage

- Tywin/Aerys relationship and Joanna&Rhaella

- Tragedy Summerhall

- War of Ninepenny Kings

- Reyne-Tarbeck rebbelion

- Tywin as hand

- Marriage to Joanna

- Birth of Jaime&Cersei

- Birth of Tyrion

- Defiance of Duskendale

- Kingswood Brotherhood

PS Tywin is my favorite ASOIAF character

Also if you think that Lyanna had a baby in the north. And that Tywin believed that his son will ne king. What if Jon Snow is the son of Tywin and Lyanna?  Then he is the blue rose in danys prophecy and the son of Tywin  

[Sly Wren]

13 hours ago, The Flayed Knight said:

Indeed. Most lords and noble houses never got away with slighting Tywin or the Lannister name without some form of repercussion, and as Aerys grew madder by the day and continued to insult Tywin's honor, there had to be something in the works from Tywin's perspective (aside from sitting on the side lines up until the Sack of KL at the end of Robert's Rebellion). 

Yup! Aerys and Tywin were escalating for a while:

Aerys refuses Cersei as a bride for Rhaegar and Jaime as Rhaegar's squire. Then Tywin tries to use the Darklyns to kill Aerys.

Aerys sends Steffon Baratheon to Essos for Rhaegar's wife. When Steffon dies, Aerys insists that Tywin did it.

Aerys marries Rhaegar to Elia. Tywin tries to unite with the Tullys by marrying Jaime to Lysa.

Then Aerys takes Jaime as Kingsguard. Tywin resigns and leaves King's Landing.

Resigning? No way that's enough of a move for all Aerys did. Just sitting out the war? No, Tywin would want to make sure Aerys lost once and for all.

[Sly Wren]

11 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Except it didnt lead to war. Brandon's death was not what led to war, infact it was not even the execution of the innocent Rickard that led to war it was the mad king demanding that Jon Arryn execute his wards, Ned and the Kings cousin Robert, that led to war.

Right--but it set the ball rolling. Baelish and Lysa's killing Jon Arryn didn't start the War of the 5 Kings. But it show things up.

Then Lysa sent a letter accusing the Lannisters. Could they have predicted all that Ned would do in response? No. But could they predict something was likely to happen? Yup. Once Ned was in King's Landing, Baelish had a lot of opportunities to keep prodding Ned and the Lannisters. Could he predict or control specific outcomes? No. But could he promote the animosity and chaos that resulted in Ned's death and the war? Yup.

Could Tywin have guaranteed that the Westerlings would get Robb to break his betrothal to Walder Frey's daughter? No. But it was a potential breakdown of Robb's power. They tried it and it worked. That left Robb more vulnerable so Tywin could try other things to break Robb down.

Same with Lyanna. They send word to Brandon, not Rickard (apparently), that Rhaegar took her. Why Brandon? Because he was angriest at the crowning. Could Tywin predict exactly what Brandon would do? No. But it was a good bet. And then Tywin has a mess that he can prod to encourage chaos.

As for what Aerys ending up doing: Aerys was already paranoid and executing people with wildfire. The idea that he would take things way too far if the Starks freaked out over Lyanna was a pretty safe bet.

12 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

There was just too many variables to predict.

He doesn't have to predict it all. Just has to stir things up, reassess, and stir again. Like Baelish. Like Varys. Like Tywin himself did with Robb.

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, Seams said:

Thank you for working out this good theory! Some interesting and fun possibilities.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

Maggy may have also told Tywin that he would die while sitting on a throne in King's Landing.

An very interesting idea. I have never looked into Tywin as driven by prophecy. Given the time he spent around the Targaryens, I could see him getting interested in it. But I could also see him thinking of it with contempt when he sees how the Targaryens got caught up in it. Or using it to manipulate them--I'm assuming he might have heard something of it from Rhaegar. 

I'm trying to think, but I can't remember any time Tywin seems interested in the gods or fate. He seems more invested in making his own fate. Can you think of actions where he seem to embrace the idea of a "predicted" fate?

2 hours ago, Seams said:

There are parts of the good theory from your OP that I can't yet embrace, however. Maybe I will come around as I read more of the comments on this active thread, but I am selfish about pet crackpot theories of my own and find it hard to let them go. For instance, I don't believe Lyanna gave birth to Jon Snow in the Tower of Joy. I think it's essential that Jon was born in the North somewhere - my current thinking is that he was born in the Winterfell crypt. I also don't think Rhaegar was his father. I realize I am in the minority in this forum, and I don't mean to reignite the debate or hijack this thread. The reason I mention this is that I think the Rhaegar-kidnapped-Lyanna story is fiction; maybe the story was put out there by Tywin trying to cover up his actions or trying to please King Robert who was heartbroken about the "loss" of Lyanna.

1. HA! We are all "selfish" when it comes to our pet theories. That's what makes the forums fun.

2. I, too, think it likely that Rhaegar wasn't Jon's father. I can't dismiss Rhaegar by any means, but I also think others are possible. Nor do I think Lyanna was necessarily in the tower. She could have been, but no way the text requires it.

ETA: That said, I think Tywin as encouraging the war by taking/trying to take Lyanna works regardless of who Jon's father is. Rhaegar, Arthur, anyone else--Tywin's role still could work.

3. As for the Winterfell crypts--if so, any ideas on how Lyanna got far enough south that Ned had to bring her bones all the way back north? 

4. As for Rhaegar's kidnapping Lyanna being at least partly, if not entirely, fiction--I'm right with you on that. And it would help Tywin cover up his role in the affair--which is what Tywin does with Duskendale and the Red Wedding.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

I also find it hard to embrace the idea that Tywin and Rhaegar were working together in any way. I think Rhaegar was a smart guy, and he would see that Tywin was a "keep your enemies closer" kind of ally, but not someone you would enlist to help depose your insane father. It seems more likely to me that Tywin was trying to implicate Rhaegar in the so-called kidnapping of Lyanna as payback to Aerys for making Jaime a member of the Kingsguard. You ruin my heir, I'll ruin your heir.

Any reason it can't be both? We know Tywin wanted Rhaegar on the throne and married to Cersei. We know Rheagar wanted his father off of the throne and three children for his interpretation of a prophecy. 

So, Tywin tries to get Rhaegar on the throne (I'm guessing Elia might well have ended up mysteriously ill and dead not too long after). But it would also help him get vengeance on Aerys. So--the "kidnapping" both pays Aerys back for trying to screw up Tywin's legacy AND gets Tywin the potential to have Cersei be Rhaegar's queen.

Would Rhaegar suspect that Tywin was a dangerous ally? He'd be a fool not to. And there's no reason he'd need to know about Tywin's "kidnapping" plans ahead of time. But Rhaegar, like Tywin, sat out a massive civil war. They both entered at the opportune moment. So, either they both came to the same conclusion re: getting rid of Aerys via war independently (possible), or at some point, Aerys and Rhaegar agreed to stay out of the war until the right time.

2 hours ago, Seams said:

Well, I realize I am now wandering far afield from the OP. I do think that Tywin has been pulling strings behind the scenes and that he has a lot more blood on his hands than people realized during his lifetime. I like the original and well-reasoned thinking of your theory and I will come back and re-read a lot of the good ideas you have raised.

All seems on topic to me. No worries.

And thanks! I'll look forward to what else you find/think of.

[The Flayed Knight]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Yup! Aerys and Tywin were escalating for a while:

Aerys refuses Cersei as a bride for Rhaegar and Jaime as Rhaegar's squire. Then Tywin tries to use the Darklyns to kill Aerys.

Aerys sends Steffon Baratheon to Essos for Rhaegar's wife. When Steffon dies, Aerys insists that Tywin did it.

Aerys marries Rhaegar to Elia. Tywin tries to unite with the Tullys by marrying Jaime to Lysa.

Then Aerys takes Jaime as Kingsguard. Tywin resigns and leaves King's Landing.

Resigning? No way that's enough of a move for all Aerys did. Just sitting out the war? No, Tywin would want to make sure Aerys lost once and for all.

Indeed.

 

Hence why I'm leaning more in favor of believing that Tywin was a principle architect on both sides of the effort to depose of Aerys, by either having Rhaegar ascend to the throne or with Robert taking the crown and marrying his daughter to the Baratheon king. The fact that Robert's Rebellion ended so well for Lannisters cannot be down to coincidence, and had Rhaegar won the Battle of the Trident then no doubt Tywin would have reaped similar rewards.

Basically, it just doesn't add up to think that Tywin suddenly grew a spine and entered the war towards its conclusion. He''s not that kind of man...

[NutBurz]

21 minutes ago, The Flayed Knight said:

IHence why I'm leaning more in favor of believing that Tywin was a principle architect on both sides of the effort to depose of Aerys, by either having Rhaegar ascend to the throne or with Robert taking the crown and marrying his daughter to the Baratheon king. The fact that Robert's Rebellion ended so well for Lannisters cannot be down to coincidence, and had Rhaegar won the Battle of the Trident then no doubt Tywin would have reaped similar rewards.

I agree. I´ve always interpreted Robert´s easy acceptance of what happened in the Sack of King´s Landing as previous knowledge - I always doubted Tywin would watch the rebellion brew without making his own investment on it. In my mind, Tywin needed Robert to force the Dornish army out of Dorne - if he managed to do that, Tywin would take enough men to King´s Landing to hand it on a plate to Robert.

 

I just could never place him on the other side of the bet, before the thread. How could he gamble with a position for Cersei without having any hand on the fate of Lyanna?

Well, there you go, he was the one who got her in the first place and gave her to Rhaegar. Things that might have happened or not between the abduction and the ultimate resolution of the Trident don´t really matter - either a) Rhaegar gave Lyanna(+baby) back and unified the realm by deposing his father and appointed Tywin as Hand, or b ) Robert killed Rhaegar and deposed Aerys himself and Tywin has Lyanna killed (even if through an indirect suggestion to Rhaegar, who then orders the Kingsguards) in order to crown Cersei. In both scenarios, the Lannister army simply shows up for a parade.

[The Flayed Knight]

6 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

I agree. I´ve always interpreted Robert´s easy acceptance of what happened in the Sack of King´s Landing as previous knowledge - I always doubted Tywin would watch the rebellion brew without making his own investment on it. In my mind, Tywin needed Robert to force the Dornish army out of Dorne - if he managed to do that, Tywin would take enough men to King´s Landing to hand it on a plate to Robert.

 

I just could never place him on the other side of the bet, before the thread. How could he gamble with a position for Cersei without having any hand on the fate of Lyanna?

Well, there you go, he was the one who got her in the first place and gave her to Rhaegar. Things that might have happened or not between the abduction and the ultimate resolution of the Trident don´t really matter - either a) Rhaegar gave Lyanna(+baby) back and unified the realm by deposing his father and appointed Tywin as Hand, or b ) Robert killed Rhaegar and deposed Aerys himself and Tywin has Lyanna killed (even if through an indirect suggestion to Rhaegar, who then orders the Kingsguards) in order to crown Cersei. In both scenarios, the Lannister army simply shows up for a parade.

Agreed.

In some way or another Tywin needed the outcome to ensure that House Lannister reaped a majority (or close to) of the benefits to come. If Rhaegar had been triumphant then Tywin would have gotten his wish of a more favorable king that would heed his council (something Aerys stopped doing a long, long time ago).  Even though Rhaegar couldn't marry Cersei, being Hand to one of the realm's most loved figures would have been victory enough for Tywin - Aerys would be out of the picture and, come the end of the rebellion, the strong and noble houses that supported Robert would have been depleted. 

But of course the events supported Robert, and Tywin used the Baratheon king's hatred of the Targaryens' to sack KL and murder the royal family (an act that was clearly in bad taste from the perspectives of most who witnessed the outcome). Tywin was then able to marry his daughter to Robert (and must have seen this as a stronger position than holding a position as the King's Hand) and, with a permanent Lannister presence besides Robert, Tywin could tend to his own matters at Casterly Rock and broaden the influence and power of his house.

Either way, it cannot be coincidence that events played in his favor - there had to be a degree of involvement from his end to ensure that everything played out to the letter.

 

[Nevets]

17 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. My main point was that if Lyanna was taken from her guard, it would likely be done under the authority of the king. That could be how she was taken from her guard, just as Tyrion was taken from his.

As for "in secret and hiding identities"--that wasn't my point and I apologize for being unclear. Tywin would want to not be known, but the defeated knights would probably want the Starks to know this was payback. Just as the Freys want the north to know they are paying back the Starks. So, no reason the defeated knights would have to disguise themselves.

Then why do the Starks still think that Rhaegar was the one responsible for her disappearance.  In both Eddard and Catelyn's POV's we get no indication whatsoever that anyone but Rhaegar was responsible.  While Brandon may have wrongly thought Rhaegar was responsible in your scenario, the rest of them,. including Ned, would have found out.  And if the Freys were involved and the Starks knew it, why does Catelyn not mention it in her POV when she is visiting the Twins? She obviously has nothing but contempt for the Freys.

 

17 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I agree on the Freys and Haighs, as you know.

But on Boros--he's a craven. He's broken down and aging. In his heyday, he seems to have been an excellent jouster. But he's repeatedly mocked for cowardice. And he gave up the heir to the throne.  Cersei has no trouble finding fighting men who are willing to be her lickspittles. The idea that Tywin of all people couldn't find someone better beggars the imagination.

There had to be someone better for the Kingsguard To protect Tywin's legacy.

How do we know it was a Blount, much less Boros?  There is no indication in the books that the porcupine is even Blount's sigil.  While the pitchfork is identified as the Haigh sigil later in ASOS, the porcupine is never identified at all.  A Search of Ice and Fire only lists the mentions in the KOtLT story, plus one from D&E where he thinks someone looks like one.

I am very reluctant to rely on information not in the books to back up a theory.  GRRM plays fair with his audience.  He gives them the information they need, albeit often hidden, or he makes it clear that he is withholding necessary information (e.g., Septa Lemore's eye color).  Without Ser Boros, this theory falls to the level of sheer speculation.

[Sly Wren]

5 hours ago, The Flayed Knight said:

Hence why I'm leaning more in favor of believing that Tywin was a principle architect on both sides of the effort to depose of Aerys, by either having Rhaegar ascend to the throne or with Robert taking the crown and marrying his daughter to the Baratheon king. The fact that Robert's Rebellion ended so well for Lannisters cannot be down to coincidence, and had Rhaegar won the Battle of the Trident then no doubt Tywin would have reaped similar rewards.

Agreed--though I think that if Rhaegar had won, sickly Elia might have become even more sickly and soon dead. And who better to console poor Rhaegar than Cersei? Just saying--I think Tywin would have been Rhaegar's Hand and Cersei would have ended up his wife after not all all that much time.

5 hours ago, The Flayed Knight said:

Basically, it just doesn't add up to think that Tywin suddenly grew a spine and entered the war towards its conclusion. He''s not that kind of man...

No--and Tywin's never lacked for spine. He entered when it best served him and had plans for multiple contingencies.

[The Flayed Knight]

2 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--though I think that if Rhaegar had won, sickly Elia might have become even more sickly and soon dead. And who better to console poor Rhaegar than Cersei? Just saying--I think Tywin would have been Rhaegar's Hand and Cersei would have ended up his wife after not all all that much time.

No--and Tywin's never lacked for spine. He entered when it best served him and had plans for multiple contingencies.

True. Thought I do believe that despite the sickly nature of Elia there would still be an element of time to pass before she passed. But yes the end result would see Cersei comforting and marrying Rhaegar, and if Tywin served as Hand then House Lannister would only be rivaled by the Targaryen's in terms of power. Plus Tywin would get his wish at establishing a long lasting dynasty for the family name...

And that's what I love about his character; he is not one-minded. If something goes eerie then more contingencies are put in place. We have seen this time and time again in the books, and I agree that he likely had such plans in motion prior to Robert's Rebellion. (Likely it started during the Defiance of Duskendale or, perhaps, before).

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

Then why do the Starks still think that Rhaegar was the one responsible for her disappearance.  In both Eddard and Catelyn's POV's we get no indication whatsoever that anyone but Rhaegar was responsible.  While Brandon may have wrongly thought Rhaegar was responsible in your scenario, the rest of them,. including Ned, would have found out.  And if the Freys were involved and the Starks knew it, why does Catelyn not mention it in her POV when she is visiting the Twins? She obviously has nothing but contempt for the Freys.

If Rhaegar was getting Lyanna away from Tywin's lackeys, or if Lyanna ran and Rhaegar found her (as Yoren, Beric, and the Hound do for Arya), then Lyanna might not know Tywin sent the lackeys. Which means Ned might not know where the attacks originated.

As for Ned's thoughts on Rhaegar, they are pretty limited. He's hardly glowing about dragon-boy, but not terribly negative, either. Which is an odd stance if Ned thinks Rhaegar stole Lyanna. Which could fit Lyanna's running off with Rhaegar (as some have hypothesized); or with Rhaegar's "rescuing" Lyanna, but then holding onto her until the war was done; or Lyanna's running from her attackers and Rhaegar helped her--but then held onto her until the war was done.

In the last two scenarios (one like Baelish's actions with Sansa, one like Beric or Sandor's actions with Arya), Rhaegar would be a bit of a mixed bag--not a bad guy who stole her, but not a great guy for keeping it all secret. Ned's limited thoughts about Rhaegar could easily fit that mix.

As for Cat--there's a fair amount Ned doesn't tell her: he doesn't tell her the specifics of Brandon and Rickard's deaths (as we learn from that scene with Jaime). He won't talk about Ashara Dayne. He apparently never gave out the details of how he and Howland defeated Arthur. He won't talk about Jon's origins. He's left a LOT in the past, and not just to protect Jon's identity. The idea that he might leave out what he knows (if he knows) about the Freys' attacking Lyanna, might leave all of the story in the past--that would fit with what we've seen.

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

How do we know it was a Blount, much less Boros?  There is no indication in the books that the porcupine is even Blount's sigil.  While the pitchfork is identified as the Haigh sigil later in ASOS, the porcupine is never identified at all.  A Search of Ice and Fire only lists the mentions in the KOtLT story, plus one from D&E where he thinks someone looks like one.

I am very reluctant to rely on information not in the books to back up a theory.  GRRM plays fair with his audience.  He gives them the information they need, albeit often hidden, or he makes it clear that he is withholding necessary information (e.g., Septa Lemore's eye color).  Without Ser Boros, this theory falls to the level of sheer speculation.

Very fair point re: the source of the sigil. The only source given is the Citadel. And the Citadel lists a copyright after the sigil, not a source or SSM. So, as you say, until the novels confirm the sigil, or until Martin SSM's it, this is by no means proven.

That said, the identity of the porcupine knight does seem to matter, especially since we get the identities of the Freys and Haighs--and they definitely matter. And, if it is a Blount sigil, so far, there are no other Blounts mentioned in any other books--not the novellas, not the World of Ice and Fire--at all. Boros is it.

Plus, no way around it, Boros Blount is a Lannister lackey. After Cersei attacks and kills Ned's household, she send Boros of all of the Kingsguard to bring Sansa to her. And Boros is wearing a golden lion pin with red eyes, of all things.

Most of all, Boros' reinstatement to the Kingsguard after giving up Tommen makes no sense. At all. Not from a man like Tywin. Something is up.

So, I will not be at all surprised if the novels confirm the wiki/Citadel identity of the Blount sigil. But I agree that until the novels do so, this isn't settled.

[Seams]

21 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Im not sure did Cersei's chapter say that she pushed Melara? If not Tywin could be guilty.

I think that Tywin knows that Jaime is the father of Cersei children and even that he supports it even tho he is disgusted by the notion of incest as it would make Joffrey the first Lannsiter king of the Ironthrone or the first Andal king of the ironthrone just like Joffrey Lydden became the first Andal king of the Rock. (It also fits with my pet theory/wishfullfilment theory that Dany will give birth to a daughter who will be married to Tommen)  

The book doesn't come right out and say that Cersei pushed Melara down the well, if I recall correctly. It is implied by the pronouns in Maggy's line, "Your death is here tonight, little one. Can you smell her breath? She is very close." But not pinned down precisely. So it may be one of those areas where GRRM will surprise us later by revealing what really happened. Or he may never explain it and our own grandchildren will be writing posts in this forum arguing about possible explanations!

I agree that Tywin suspects that Cersei's children are also Jaime's children, and that he has mixed feelings about it. He wants a Lannister dynasty, and he might see the usefulness of having full-blooded Lannisters pretending to be Baratheons for a generation. (But carrying Lannister swords, referring to themselves as lions, etc.)

Was it not Cersei Tywin wanted on the Ironthrone?

I think Tywin sees Cersei as a vessel for babies and as a bargaining chip for forming alliances through marriage. He does not see her as a useful long-term occupant of the Iron throne.

Is there any scenario Jaime might become king? Or maybe in a twisted way he already is since he is the lover of the queen anf father of the prices and princess?

Maybe Jaime could marry Daenerys? If Lannisters get on the wrong side of fAegon they might declare of the Stormborn? Maybe Tyrion by this time will even support this?

Or like you said it's already happened with Jaime.

I can tell you are a fan of Jaime! I don't see Jaime as having any ambition about becoming a ruler. All he wanted was to openly share his love for Cersei and to honorably serve in the King's Guard. I think his brotherly affection for Tyrion is also genuine and that he tried to be a dutiful son to Tywin, even though he saw Tywin's crazed ambition and he didn't share it. I don't see any evidence leading toward Jaime bonding with anyone other than Brienne, and I think that bond will probably not be sexual, although I may be wrong.

Why is it essential that Jon was born in the North.

Since you don't think Rhaegar is the father who is? Robert Baratheon? Howland Read? Hodor? Mance Raydar? Tywin  ?

When did Lyanna leave the North? Before or after the Tourney of Harrenhal

I realized that the location where a highborn or royal baby was born is important when I helped with the last AGoT chapters in the direwolf reread thread. The last Catelyn POV has her returning to Riverrun and recalling that she had last been present in her childhood home when she left for Winterfell with baby Robb in her arms. In other words, Robb was born in the River Lands. There is also a moment in the chapter when Catelyn has to remind herself that Robb is Ned's son, too. A couple times in the chapter, the dying Hoster Tully refers to Robb saying, "He has my eyes." I was also working on the "Puns and Wordplay" thread at that time and had worked out the linked symbol around the pun on "eyes" and "Ice." The chapter includes Robb dictating the demands the Lannisters must fulfill if they want him to free his hostage, Jaime Lannister, and one of the demands is that the sword Ice be returned to Robb at Riverrun. This just immediately sounded wrong to me - not only does Robb not have the sword (although he does have Hoster's eyes) but he is insisting that the sword come to Riverrun, which is obviously the wrong "home" for Ice. There are other details in the chapter that hint that Robb is doomed and all the evidence added up to me that he was not destined to be a long-lived King in the North. (Note the irony that The King IN the North never sets foot in the North after he is crowned, wearing a facsimile crown created by the Tully's smith.)

I think that either Brandon Stark or Ned is the father of Jon Snow. I haven't worked out the details clearly, but I think Lyanna was already pregnant at the tourney at Harrenhal. When she started to show, she hid in the crypt at Winterfell and gave birth to the baby there. Maybe she entrusted her newborn to the care of Old Nan or - who knows? - the Children of the Forest. Maybe the thing Hodor saw in the crypt that caused him to lose most of his power of speech is a secret having to do with Jon's birth or early survival.

Lyanna was a warrior, and I think she subsequently left Winterfell because she felt the call to go forth on a mission. This is obviously entirely guesswork - I suspect she saw herself fighting on the same side as Rhaegar, which might be why the rumor that he had kidnapped her was so effective. Armor can hide a warrior's identity pretty effectively, and I suspect we will find that Lyanna was engaged in combat at the Trident or the Battle of the Bells. Her bed of blood was not brought about by childbirth, but by a mortal wound sustained in combat. (Unless there was a second pregnancy and a second baby . . . )

But I'm not a timeline expert. I'm sure others will shoot down this theory. (I will note though, that the ancient Celts believed that time stood still for mortals who entered the Underworld. You might think you had been gone for twenty years but would emerge to find that only a few minutes had passed. Think also of the Pevensie children coming of age in Narnia and then returning through the wardrobe to find that they were still kids. So the maturation timeline may be different for a baby entrusted to the Children of the Forest. We may know more if/when Bran and Meera emerge from the Bloodraven cave.)

"Rhaegar is aware that Lyanna was carrying a secret child out of wedlock"

How can Rhaegar know this? Did Rhaegar know the father personally? Was Rhaegar the father? Did he just stumble into something and found it out? Don't say that Mance is the father. Who could the father be, a Northmen or a Southron?

Makes sense for the Starks to hide a oit of wedlock pregnancy.

If Lyanna found a prophecy in the Winterfell library (or was made aware of a prophecy involving her baby) she might have contacted Rhaegar by raven because he would have been identified as another part of the same prophecy. Rhaegar was a singer, so he would have known songs about Bael the Bard and the legend of the Stark crypt. I am making a leap of logic here. The evidence has not been put before us. I think Jon's father has to be a north man. When Tyrion meets Jon he says, "You have more of the north in you than your brothers." Tyrion is one of GRRM's fool figures, who says wise things that other people do not recognize. I think this is one of those wise insights that tell us Rhaegar is not Jon's father.

The Starks may not have known about Lyanna's pregnancy. I think she took steps to hide it from them. If Brandon was the father, though, he probably didn't want anyone to know that he had raped or seduced his little sister.

There should be a spinnoff series about Tywin's life up to the end od Robert rebellion when Cersei married the king Robert.

...

PS Tywin is my favorite ASOIAF character

Also if you think that Lyanna had a baby in the north. And that Tywin believed that his son will ne king. What if Jon Snow is the son of Tywin and Lyanna?  Then he is the blue rose in danys prophecy and the son of Tywin  

I would LOVE to watch or read a series focused on Tywin. He is a fascinating character. I don't think Tywin is related to Jon Snow, however.

 

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

An very interesting idea. I have never looked into Tywin as driven by prophecy. Given the time he spent around the Targaryens, I could see him getting interested in it. But I could also see him thinking of it with contempt when he sees how the Targaryens got caught up in it. Or using it to manipulate them--I'm assuming he might have heard something of it from Rhaegar. 

I'm trying to think, but I can't remember any time Tywin seems interested in the gods or fate. He seems more invested in making his own fate. Can you think of actions where he seem to embrace the idea of a "predicted" fate?

You may have hit upon the biggest flaw in my whole house of cards. It seems crazy that logical, pragmatic Tywin would place much trust in prophecy. I thought the same thing about his attitude toward magic, however, and then uncovered some strong hints that he was using magic to achieve his ambitions for House Lannister. His alliance with Sybell Spicer in bringing down Robb Stark is a strong indication that he may have had a longtime connection to Maggy the Frog, so the link to prophecy seems implied through that. There is also a seemingly small line of dialogue (one of GRRM's Agatha Christie moments?) where Tywin seems to have a timeline in mind, perhaps based on a prediction. He has just sent King Joffrey off to be drugged and put to bed after Joffrey both second-guesses Tywin's instructions about being a good king and expresses affection for his late "father," Robert Baratheon:

"Thank you for that wisdom, Your Grace," Lord Tywin said, with a courtesy so cold it was like to freeze their ears off. "Ser Kevan, I can see the king is tired. Please see him safely back to his bedchamber. Pycelle, perhaps some gentle potion to help His Grace sleep restfully?"

"Dreamwine, my lord?"

"I don't want any dreamwine," Joffrey insisted.

Lord Tywin would have paid more heed to a mouse squeaking in the corner. "Dreamwine will serve. Cersei, Tyrion, remain."

….

"The boy is thirteen. There is time yet." Lord Tywin paced to the window. That was unlike him; he was more upset than he wished to show. "He requires a sharp lesson."

 (ASoS, Tyrion VI)

Perhaps Tywin's thought about Joffrey's young age is just a way of trying to excuse Joffrey's rash behavior and to dissipate his own anger. But it might imply that Tywin has been given a timeline in the form of a prediction or prophecy. Something that has to be done before something else can be achieved? I take the concluding statement here, that Joffrey "requires a sharp lesson" as a hint that Tywin has decided to kill Joffrey, though. So the idea that his earlier statement is a way to calm himself down would not fit with my reading of the subsequent phrase. The notion that it has to do with a timeline for creating a Lannister dynasty is a better fit.

2. I, too, think it likely that Rhaegar wasn't Jon's father. I can't dismiss Rhaegar by any means, but I also think others are possible. Nor do I think Lyanna was necessarily in the tower. She could have been, but no way the text requires it.

ETA: That said, I think Tywin as encouraging the war by taking/trying to take Lyanna works regardless of who Jon's father is. Rhaegar, Arthur, anyone else--Tywin's role still could work.

Agreed! You have no idea how relieved I am to read this. So glad I'm not the only one who doubts the obvious explanations.

3. As for the Winterfell crypts--if so, any ideas on how Lyanna got far enough south that Ned had to bring her bones all the way back north? 

Not sure. I think she was wearing armor and/or other disguises. One crackpot notion is that she may have gone south to try to kill Robert Baratheon. He was not her type.

4. As for Rhaegar's kidnapping Lyanna being at least partly, if not entirely, fiction--I'm right with you on that. And it would help Tywin cover up his role in the affair--which is what Tywin does with Duskendale and the Red Wedding.

Any reason it can't be both? We know Tywin wanted Rhaegar on the throne and married to Cersei. We know Rheagar wanted his father off of the throne and three children for his interpretation of a prophecy. 

So, Tywin tries to get Rhaegar on the throne (I'm guessing Elia might well have ended up mysteriously ill and dead not too long after). But it would also help him get vengeance on Aerys. So--the "kidnapping" both pays Aerys back for trying to screw up Tywin's legacy AND gets Tywin the potential to have Cersei be Rhaegar's queen.

Would Rhaegar suspect that Tywin was a dangerous ally? He'd be a fool not to. And there's no reason he'd need to know about Tywin's "kidnapping" plans ahead of time. But Rhaegar, like Tywin, sat out a massive civil war. They both entered at the opportune moment. So, either they both came to the same conclusion re: getting rid of Aerys via war independently (possible), or at some point, Aerys and Rhaegar agreed to stay out of the war until the right time.

These are all good potential plot twists! I also think Elia Martell should not be discounted as an active player. Everything we know about the women of Dorne tells us they are not passive. Wouldn't it be interesting if Lyanna and Elia were in love? Now there's a plot twist. Or how about Elia and Tywin conspiring together to get Aerys off the throne, but Tywin double-crossing her and sending in Gregor Clegane to cover up his treachery by eliminating this co-conspirator?

 

[Sly Wren]

NOTE: I stated in Part I of the OP that @Feather Crystal's arguments had gotten me started on the road to looking at Tywin. And that the essay she had first posted was no longer available.

That is still the case. But @Feather Crystal has posted a new version here. I have amended the OP to include the link to Feather's new essay as well.

Feather and I disagree on key points, but we strongly agree that Tywin helped orchestrate Robert's Rebellion and that Tywin would use others to keep his hands clean. It's an excellent read.

[Sly Wren]

5 hours ago, Seams said:

His alliance with Sybell Spicer in bringing down Robb Stark is a strong indication that he may have had a longtime connection to Maggy the Frog, so the link to prophecy seems implied through that.

Very possible. I'm more inclined to believe that Tywin maintained connections for political machinations vs. magical ones. And that that's what's happening with Sybell. But if Tywin got sucked into the fortune-telling that Maggy did, that would be very interesting.

5 hours ago, Seams said:

Perhaps Tywin's thought about Joffrey's young age is just a way of trying to excuse Joffrey's rash behavior and to dissipate his own anger. But it might imply that Tywin has been given a timeline in the form of a prediction or prophecy. Something that has to be done before something else can be achieved? I take the concluding statement here, that Joffrey "requires a sharp lesson" as a hint that Tywin has decided to kill Joffrey, though. So the idea that his earlier statement is a way to calm himself down would not fit with my reading of the subsequent phrase. The notion that it has to do with a timeline for creating a Lannister dynasty is a better fit.

Very interesting. And I, too, had toyed with the idea that Tywin helped or allowed Joff's murder. 

But I could also see this as the human, ambitious version of Targaryen-prophecy seeking. Tywin wants his own dynasty. Joffrey is young enough that Tywin thinks he can get him in line--at least for now. So, while the Targs chase prophecy, Tywin chases power and dynasty. And the result is the same--misery and self-destructive children. 

I'll keep an eye out, though, now you've brought it up. Because that would be a fabulous twist if, like Cersei, Tywin had gotten sucked into the Targ prophecy madness.

5 hours ago, Seams said:

Agreed! You have no idea how relieved I am to read this. So glad I'm not the only one who doubts the obvious explanations.

5 hours ago, Seams said:

Not sure. I think she was wearing armor and/or other disguises. One crackpot notion is that she may have gone south to try to kill Robert Baratheon. He was not her type.

Running with a disguise--that might fit both Arya and Sansa's echoes of Lyanna. 

But with Robert--I know readers often focus on what she says re: Robert's fidelity. As they should. But there's no way around the fact that Ned loves Robert for loving Lyanna. And that Lyanna's statement never denies that she loves Robert or that Robert loves her. Only that it won't be enough to stop his cheating on her. Not ideal, at all. But worth killing him over? That seems. . . extreme.

5 hours ago, Seams said:

These are all good potential plot twists! I also think Elia Martell should not be discounted as an active player. Everything we know about the women of Dorne tells us they are not passive. Wouldn't it be interesting if Lyanna and Elia were in love? Now there's a plot twist. Or how about Elia and Tywin conspiring together to get Aerys off the throne, but Tywin double-crossing her and sending in Gregor Clegane to cover up his treachery by eliminating this co-conspirator?

I like it! Though I would be more inclined to see Elia and Ashara as the political or even romantic duo than Elia and Lyanna. In the Knight of the Laughing Tree story, we learn who Ashara danced with--she dances with key political players. She's Elia's lady in waiting. Her brother is Rhaegar's bestie. 

So, the idea of Elia and Ashara as politically engaged could make a lot of sense.

But As for Elia and Tywin. . . .given that Tywin wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar, seems unlikely that Elia would trust him. Plus, it wold still be a double cross if Tywin was "working" with Rhaegar AND preparing for the chance that Robert won. The killing of Elia and her children would still be a double cross, just of Rhaegar.

[Melifeather]

On 5/14/2016 at 8:34 PM, thelittledragonthatcould said:

This is kind of silly. How exactly could Tywin have predicted that Brandon would charge off to Kings Landing and threaten to kill the Prince of the Realm or that Aerys would flip and execute Rickard for no real reason or that he would also want to execute Robert and Ned in the process.

There are just too many variables for anyone to have plotted the outcome.

 

I get that there is a need to make Tywin some kind of mastermind supervillain but this strikes me, like the tinfoil theory that he also had a hand in the events at Summerhall, a little ridiculous. Too many spinning plates for anyone to predict the outcome.

 

 

Tywin didn't know or foretell that he would lose an ally, because I believe he viewed Rickard as an ally and maybe even friend. He wanted the Rebellion, but he wanted his daughter as queen too. He proposed Jaime for Lyssa Tully to seem like he was participating in the alliance, but it was a half-hearted effort, because he had other plans for Jaime. 

Killing Lyanna solves three problems: 1) Cersei will be queen, 2) it cements the Starks as an ally..., AND 3) it would succeed in turning the north against Rhaegar.

He wanted to annihilate the Targaryens, because he was furious. As soon as his marriage offer was refused, Rhaegar was officially off the table. The comment at Duskendale was only a comment....maybe a dalliance. Tywin is a very deliberate man and a master strategist. He was playing everyone like puppets.

 

On 5/14/2016 at 9:24 AM, Sly Wren said:

Yup! Aerys and Tywin were escalating for a while:

Aerys refuses Cersei as a bride for Rhaegar and Jaime as Rhaegar's squire. Then Tywin tries to use the Darklyns to kill Aerys.

Aerys sends Steffon Baratheon to Essos for Rhaegar's wife. When Steffon dies, Aerys insists that Tywin did it.

Aerys marries Rhaegar to Elia. Tywin tries to unite with the Tullys by marrying Jaime to Lysa.

Then Aerys takes Jaime as Kingsguard. Tywin resigns and leaves King's Landing.

Resigning? No way that's enough of a move for all Aerys did. Just sitting out the war? No, Tywin would want to make sure Aerys lost once and for all.

Late for the party and too much to catch up on, so just dropping by to offer some viewpoints.

Other co-conspirators...

I do believe it's true that Rhaegar thought he was part of the alliance and that the riverlords were assembling banners for his support, so on his side he had his mother and wife also doing their parts. There is a hint that even Elia was slowly poisoning Aerys. I get this from the Captain of Guards inversion chapter. Lady Nym says Tyene was so sweet and innocent that no one would suspect her of poisoning Tywin. (The inverted characters for these three in this chapter are Ashara, Elia, and Aerys.)

Since Sansa secretly went behind her father's back, the inversion would be for Cersei to cooperate fully with Tywin when it comes to Jaime's investiture to the Kingsguard, only Jaime doesn't know his father had a part in this. He thinks it was Cersei's plan, and when he finds out that it was a deliberate plot between Cersei and Tywin, that will be that reveal that causes him to strangle her...or push her down a well.

As for Melara and the well...the Lannisters do love to drown their enemies. It's kind of their thing, and I think it's actually the meaning of "winkle" when Lann the Clever took the Rock from the Casterlys. His little trick was likely a drowning similar to when Tywin drowned the Reynes.