How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

[thelittledragonthatcould]

11 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Killing Lyanna solves three problems: 1) Cersei will be queen, 2) it cements the Starks as an ally..., AND 3) it would succeed in turning the north against Rhaegar.

So why did he drag his feet?  He could have joined the Rebels much, much sooner. He didnt, he kept his options open and from what Kevan says it seems that an alliance with Aerys was not an impossibility

The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more … but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown. -Kevan

 

11 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

He wanted to annihilate the Targaryens, because he was furious. As soon as his marriage offer was refused, Rhaegar was officially off the table.

But Viserys was still a possibility, and considering that Elia was well known to be unwell Rhaegar may have came back on the table.

He refused every offer for her hand, preferring to keep her with him in the Tower of the Hand while she grew older and more womanly and ever more beautiful. No doubt he was waiting for Prince Viserys to mature, or perhaps for Rhaegar's wife to die in childbed. Elia of Dorne was never the healthiest of women. -Jaime

[Melifeather]

11 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

So why did he drag his feet?  He could have joined the Rebels much, much sooner. He didnt, he kept his options open and from what Kevan says it seems that an alliance with Aerys was not an impossibility

The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more … but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown. -Kevan

 

But Viserys was still a possibility, and considering that Elia was well known to be unwell Rhaegar may have came back on the table.

He refused every offer for her hand, preferring to keep her with him in the Tower of the Hand while she grew older and more womanly and ever more beautiful. No doubt he was waiting for Prince Viserys to mature, or perhaps for Rhaegar's wife to die in childbed. Elia of Dorne was never the healthiest of women. -Jaime

Tywin's modus operandi is to make it appear as if he had nothing to do with anything, but he always works it out so that he gets what he wants. He didn't drag his feet. I believe his allies always knew which side he was on. The only ones that weren't sure, was the other side, furthermore I believe Jon Arryn was more complicit than we suspect. Of all of the allies, I believe he knew more than the rest. Rather than drag his feet I think he was getting tired of waiting and he needed something to start it "now". Lyanna's death solved that.

As for Viserys...he was Targaryen, and Tywin already had made up his mind that there would be no mercy. Of the three hundred men, women, and children in the Reynes Castamere subterranean castle, there were zero survivors.

Regarding Jaime - Jaime wasn't privy to everything. Tywin never told anybody everything. He only told each person as much as they needed to know to play their part. Recall that Jaime left to go change into his Lannister golden armor before killing Rossart and Aerys. How did he know? How did he know that his father had arrived to sack the city, when everyone else believed he was there to save them? Aerys thought he came because of the raven. Maester Pycelle convinced them to open the gates, but Jaime removes his Kingsguard armor???

[thelittledragonthatcould]

5 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

Regarding Jaime - Jaime wasn't privy to everything. Tywin never told anybody everything. He only told each person as much as they needed to know to play their part. Recall that Jaime left to go change into his Lannister golden armor before killing Rossart and Aerys. How did he know? How did he know that his father had arrived to sack the city, when everyone else believed he was there to save them? Aerys thought he came because of the raven. Maester Pycelle convinced them to open the gates, but Jaime removes his Kingsguard armor???

Jaime was not with Aerys when he commanded him to kill his father. He had time to change.

"It fell to me to hold the Red Keep, but I knew we were lost. I sent to Aerys asking his leave to make terms. My man came back with a royal command. 'Bring me your father's head, if you are no traitor.' Aerys would have no yielding. Lord Rossart was with him, my messenger said. I knew what that meant.

"When I came on Rossart, he was dressed as a common man-at-arms, hurrying to a postern gate. I slew him first. Then I slew Aerys, before he could find someone else to carry his message to the pyromancers.

 

[Melifeather]

7 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

19 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

Regarding Jaime - Jaime wasn't privy to everything. Tywin never told anybody everything. He only told each person as much as they needed to know to play their part. Recall that Jaime left to go change into his Lannister golden armor before killing Rossart and Aerys. How did he know? How did he know that his father had arrived to sack the city, when everyone else believed he was there to save them? Aerys thought he came because of the raven. Maester Pycelle convinced them to open the gates, but Jaime removes his Kingsguard armor???

Jaime was not with Aerys when he commanded him to kill his father. He had time to change.

"It fell to me to hold the Red Keep, but I knew we were lost. I sent to Aerys asking his leave to make terms. My man came back with a royal command. 'Bring me your father's head, if you are no traitor.' Aerys would have no yielding. Lord Rossart was with him, my messenger said. I knew what that meant.

"When I came on Rossart, he was dressed as a common man-at-arms, hurrying to a postern gate. I slew him first. Then I slew Aerys, before he could find someone else to carry his message to the pyromancers.

 

 

Jaime cannot just come out and admit to the conspiracy! Plus, his job is to protect the king no matter what. Aren't those his vows? Even against his father he could have kept Aerys safe or taken him hostage. We read how easy it was for him to kill him. Why not keep his safely hostage in a room even if it meant his father would have him executed? And why change his armor? Jaime knew he was supposed to kill the king and the only way he could do that without repercussion was to know exactly what the plan was.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 minute ago, Feather Crystal said:

Jaime cannot just come out and admit to the conspiracy! Plus, his job is to protect the king no matter what. Aren't those his vows? Even against his father he could have kept Aerys safe or taken him hostage. We read how easy it was for him to kill him. Why not keep his safely hostage in a room even if it meant his father would have him executed?

According to Ned Stark there was thousands of loyalists still in the city. Had some Royal guards came in and freed Aerys then the city goes up in Wildfire. Why would Jaime take that chance?

1 minute ago, Feather Crystal said:

And why change his armor?

His King had told him to kill his father, he clearly picked his family over his King. Changing from the White to his Lannister armor is symbolic of this.

1 minute ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

Jaime knew he was supposed to kill the king and the only way he could do that without repercussion was to know exactly what the plan was.

How did he know that? Is there a single quote from any of the Jaime POV chapters that indicate that he was supposed to kill the King for his father?

[Melifeather]

33 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

According to Ned Stark there was thousands of loyalists still in the city. Had some Royal guards came in and freed Aerys then the city goes up in Wildfire. Why would Jaime take that chance?

His King had told him to kill his father, he clearly picked his family over his King. Changing from the White to his Lannister armor is symbolic of this.

How did he know that? Is there a single quote from any of the Jaime POV chapters that indicate that he was supposed to kill the King for his father?

I admit that I am basing my theory on information gleaned from two inversion chapters: The Soiled Knight, and The Queenmaker. If you're interested in how I come to this conclusion you can click on the links to my essays in my signature below.

[Sly Wren]

21 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

He wanted to annihilate the Targaryens, because he was furious. As soon as his marriage offer was refused, Rhaegar was officially off the table. The comment at Duskendale was only a comment....maybe a dalliance. Tywin is a very deliberate man and a master strategist. He was playing everyone like puppets.

I agree that Tywin worked people like puppets. But why would Rhaegar be off of the table? The Duskendale comment seems not only reasonable but wise--Rhaegar was much more well liked than his father and much more likely to keep the kingdoms steady as Tywin reigned with him as Hand--a position from which Tywin could be very powerful for his family. And Elia was only an impediment as long as she lived. Given her sickly constitution, she might "catch" a tragic illness at the "opportune moment,t" allowing Tywin to put Cersei on the throne with Rhaegar. That would be Tywin's ideal situation: Cersei as queen, himself as Hand.

Robert on the throne is a good plan B--which is why I think Tywin is playing both sides. But Robert would be unlikely to keep Tywin as Hand, lessening Tywin's power. Which is exactly what happened.

21 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I do believe it's true that Rhaegar thought he was part of the alliance and that the riverlords were assembling banners for his support, so on his side he had his mother and wife also doing their parts. There is a hint that even Elia was slowly poisoning Aerys. I get this from the Captain of Guards inversion chapter. Lady Nym says Tyene was so sweet and innocent that no one would suspect her of poisoning Tywin. (The inverted characters for these three in this chapter are Ashara, Elia, and Aerys.)

On Elia--Given that she and Rhaegar didn't live in King's Landing most of the time, and given Aerys' vile comments about Rhaenys' "smelling Dornish," this seems very unlikely. Lack of access plus lack of trust.

Elia knew of Rhaegar's desire for a third child and the Prince that was Promised stuff. It's one of the reasons why I think Ashara and Rhaegar are a good potential for producing that third child--Dany. Who better to help your husband get his prophecy than a lady in wanting and friend you can trust?

But on manipulating Aerys, as I said above: lack of access, lack of trust.

21 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Since Sansa secretly went behind her father's back, the inversion would be for Cersei to cooperate fully with Tywin when it comes to Jaime's investiture to the Kingsguard, only Jaime doesn't know his father had a part in this.

I struggle with the idea of direct inversions, as you know. But be that as it may, Jaime's investiture seems like something Tywin would innately hate. Twin's arranging Jaime's marriage at the same time Rhaegar is planning Harrenhal--that sounds much more reasonable: Tywin's working on allying with the Great Houses via marriage while Rhaegar creates a place where they can all talk "let's get rid of the king"--that fits perfectly.

Cersei, being Cersei, didn't think things through at all and helpled muck it up. That give Aerys the info he needs to strike Tywin where it hurts him most--taking his heir, undermining his legacy. Cut off from a clear marriage alliance with the Great Houses, Tywin now has even more motive to start a war and play both sides of it.

21 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

He thinks it was Cersei's plan, and when he finds out that it was a deliberate plot between Cersei and Tywin, that will be that reveal that causes him to strangle her...or push her down a well.

At this point, would Jaime need much more impetus to loose his temper and kill Cersei? Plus, Tywin doesn't include his children in most of his key plots so far such as The Red Wedding. So, why run the risk including Cersei on this?

[Sly Wren]

21 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

So why did he drag his feet?  He could have joined the Rebels much, much sooner. He didnt, he kept his options open and from what Kevan says it seems that an alliance with Aerys was not an impossibility

The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more … but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown. -Kevan

Tywin had a number of options for regaining power. I think Rhaegar was his ideal choice. But he was sitting back and waiting for the opportune moment when he could best capitalize on the mess of the Rebellion.

21 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

But Viserys was still a possibility, and considering that Elia was well known to be unwell Rhaegar may have came back on the table.

Yup!

20 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

According to Ned Stark there was thousands of loyalists still in the city. Had some Royal guards came in and freed Aerys then the city goes up in Wildfire. Why would Jaime take that chance?

Agreed. I do think there's a chance Rhaegar left Jaime as the only Kingsguard in King's Landing on purpose. That he and Tywin might have thought it best to kill Aerys and that Jaime, as Tywin's son, might be less likely to get in the way than someone like Hightower. 

But that would be a manipulation, not a "plan" he made with Jaime. Jaime really seems like he was trying to stop the wildfire plot. He had a lot of other feelings re: Aerys. But he also really wanted the city NOT to burn.

 

[nanother]

So the idea is that Tywin framed Rhaegar for kidnapping Lyanna, then 'framed' Aerys for framing Rhaegar (in Rhaegar's eyes at least)? Yup, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Tywin turned out to be behind Lyanna's disappearance, and I'd be very surprised if he just sat back after resigning from Handship and waited for events to unfold. It'd also make sense for him to play both (or even all three) sides of the conflict.

You're definitely onto something with Ser Boros and his porcupine sigil - it's a very odd move from Tywin to reinstate him. Even if it wasn't kidnapping Lyanna (although your argument is very convincing), there must have been some reason he was so protective of him. More so because later he wants to use Cersei's precedent of dismissing Ser Barristan to get Jaime out of the KG ... granted, Jaime was still in captivity at the time, and not missing a hand, so it might not mean anything, but one would think that strengthening the precedent with Blount would still be in Tywin's best interest.

Also, I found this while looking for something else, not sure how relevant it is:

 

Quote

 

Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

 

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

 

 

I'm reluctant to make too much of it, but I figured it's worth quoting here. Does Tyrion have some in-story reason to single out Rhaegar? Or is it just GRRM hinting at something? Of course, there was a similar thing in an earlier Bran chapter, one of the rumours about the events in the south is that Rhaegar returned from the dead and is leading a host of ancient heroes ... so, paired with that, it seems to feed into the 'Rhaegar still alive or is reincarnated in Dany or whoever else' theories more than hint at Tywin and Rhaegar's relationship.

[NutBurz]

27 minutes ago, nanother said:

I'm reluctant to make too much of it, but I figured it's worth quoting here. Does Tyrion have some in-story reason to single out Rhaegar? 

I´m conflicted. Out of context like that it looks very promising, but if he said that as a nod to Rhaegar being able to spill the beans regarding Tywin´s plan, that would imply Tyrion knows about a plan and never thought about it. Unless he did and I don´t have the photographic memory to recall it. That would also imply Tywin letting Tyrion into the secret, which...eh, sounds odd, but I guess he did make Tyrion Hand of the King.

On the other hand, why else would Tywin particularly want Rhaegar dead, if not for some story I´m sure Tywin didn´t believe? Could be just a jest, maybe not 100% of words are foreshadowing after all. ^^

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, nanother said:

So the idea is that Tywin framed Rhaegar for kidnapping Lyanna, then 'framed' Aerys for framing Rhaegar (in Rhaegar's eyes at least)?

Pretty much. And he used lackeys with clear motives to do it.

He tells Tyrion that the murders of Elia and her children were not his fault. That Rhaenys in particular was killed because Amory Lorch was trying to curry favor with Robert. Tywin says that he plans to tell Oberyn the same thing. Will it work? Only so well. But if the three defeated knights were the Amory Lorch of the attack on Lyanna, Tywin's got the same level of deniability. He could even blame Aerys--say that the 3 men were trying to curry favor with a king who was angry over the KotLT.

4 hours ago, nanother said:

Yup, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Tywin turned out to be behind Lyanna's disappearance, and I'd be very surprised if he just sat back after resigning from Handship and waited for events to unfold. It'd also make sense for him to play both (or even all three) sides of the conflict.

Amen. We learn he started working against Robb earlier on with the Westerlings. He kept things quiet, but he played multiple potential hands, very like Baelish. The Rebellion was too big an opportunity to sit out, even if he hadn't tried to start it. If he did want it--which I think he did, he really wouldn't sit it out.

4 hours ago, nanother said:

You're definitely onto something with Ser Boros and his porcupine sigil - it's a very odd move from Tywin to reinstate him. Even if it wasn't kidnapping Lyanna (although your argument is very convincing), there must have been some reason he was so protective of him. More so because later he wants to use Cersei's precedent of dismissing Ser Barristan to get Jaime out of the KG ... granted, Jaime was still in captivity at the time, and not missing a hand, so it might not mean anything, but one would think that strengthening the precedent with Blount would still be in Tywin's best interest.

I'd forgotten the attempt to use a Kingsguard precedent--good catch!

Granted, Boros was dismissed for complete failure, but a dismissal is still precedent.

One way or another, Blount's reinstatement makes no sense.

4 hours ago, nanother said:

I'm reluctant to make too much of it, but I figured it's worth quoting here. Does Tyrion have some in-story reason to single out Rhaegar? Or is it just GRRM hinting at something? Of course, there was a similar thing in an earlier Bran chapter, one of the rumours about the events in the south is that Rhaegar returned from the dead and is leading a host of ancient heroes ... so, paired with that, it seems to feed into the 'Rhaegar still alive or is reincarnated in Dany or whoever else' theories more than hint at Tywin and Rhaegar's relationship.

Interesting--I'd forgotten this completely.

Looking at the scene, it seems like Tyrion is saying that there's at least one potential claimant to the throne that they don't need to worry about. 

The Bran chapter reference--it does seem to feed the idea that Rhaegar reborn could return. That the small folk still think of him, good or bad.

@Lord Wraith has a theory that the small folk in the Riverlands are still pro-Rhaegar. Given that Dany sees herself in Rhaegar's armor, the idea that this is tied to that "renewal" of Rhaegar--that would make sense.

4 hours ago, NutBurz said:

That would also imply Tywin letting Tyrion into the secret, which...eh, sounds odd, but I guess he did make Tyrion Hand of the King.

This--I doubt Tywin would let his children in on any of the moves I've theorized re: the Rebellion.

He doesn't seem to tell his older children about the Red Wedding. Tywin even insists to Tyrion that Amory Lorch acted on his own when he killed Rhaenys, absolving himself (Tywin) of guilt.

So, more than a decade earlier, when his children are in their teens--that would be an odd time to confide in them.

4 hours ago, NutBurz said:

On the other hand, why else would Tywin particularly want Rhaegar dead, if not for some story I´m sure Tywin didn´t believe? Could be just a jest, maybe not 100% of words are foreshadowing after all. ^

Maybe. But I think Tywin would want Rhaegar dead at this point so as to make sure there are no challenges to the throne.

Though if Dany is Rhaegar 2.0, or even Rhaegar's daughter--the phrase would be very interesting foreshadowing.

[RoamingRonin]

On May 13, 2016 at 7:59 AM, Humble Maester said:

Your OP is so very long it's pretty hard to break down, so I'll keep my response short.

Plausible? Yes. Likely? No.

It's neither.

If Tywin wanted Rhaegar as king, he would had Aerys killed in Duskendale when he had the chance. He could have killed his co-conspirators and the king in one fell swoop. 

[wolfmaid7]

@Slywren: Awesome write up on this.One of by favorite proposals of how Lyanna went missing next to it being and "inside job" and by inside i mean Stark involvement.I also love that you touched on the other theme in the Bael story and that is of a  dude getting back at a highlord for running his mouth about him.I said this on Feather's thread that we have a story that utilizes more or less the "Trickster" archetype( I'm actually doing an essay about that as we speak) to cause the "CCs-Chaos and change predominantly to suit there own ends.We have been privy to people not being who they are in order to enact the aforementioned i.e. Loras in Renly's armour helping Tywin with the Stannis situation (Though it was really Tyrion) and Ser Gregor for what he pulled off in the Riverlands while wearing no identifying arms.I wonder who gave them that idea..hmmm.

I don't know how "in the know" Rhaegar was.Tywin IMO may have given him the impression that he was player when he really was a pawn and in this Littlefingers lesson to Sansa comes to mind.

“Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you. Remember that, Sansa, when you come to play the game.”
“What . . . what game?”

“The only game. The game of thrones.”

Did Tywin have any allies in this really or was anyone who wasn't a Lannister and enemey or better yet an interest.

Tywin took/usedRhaegar as far as he could as best served him and then he just hung back.But something in Rhaegar's tone in his last conversation with Jamie and much of the verbage of people during that time tells me the whole Lyanna going missing was a later addition and no one outside of a few people knew she was gone.I don't think Rhaegar knew  Lyanna was missing .In everybody's mind this was a rebellion,a resistence against the ruiling monarch.

Could it be that Tywin's plan was ultimately to use Rhaegar to a point and leave him out to hang?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

5 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Granted, Boros was dismissed for complete failure, but a dismissal is still precedent.

One way or another, Blount's reinstatement makes no sense.

 

Sure it does. The reader and the inner circle of Kings Landing might know how poor a Knight Blount is but to much of the realm he is a longstanding Kingsguard* member appointed by Joffrey's 'father' Robert. Barristan had been dismissed (something that pissed off Tywin), Jaime was a prisoner, Oakheart in Dorne, Moore and Greenfield killed. There was not much left of the previous Kings Kingsguard. It is a good PR move to retain members of the previous regime (something Robert himself did) as it adds to legitimacy to Joffrey's  crown.

On the flip side it would be a huge disaster if Blount and the missing Barristan made their way to Stannis and proclaimed him as the true King.

 

*In AGOT Bran is pretty impressed with the Kingsguard visiting Winterfell

Two of the Kingsguard had come north with King Robert. Bran had watched them with fascination, never quite daring to speak to them. Ser Boros was a bald man with a jowly face, and Ser Meryn had droopy eyes and a beard the color of rust. Ser Jaime Lannister looked more like the knights in the stories, and he was of the Kingsguard too, but Robb said he had killed the old mad king and shouldn't count anymore.

And Ned never thinks negatively of Blount.

[nanother]

Regarding Jaime and what he might have known and done:

What he tells Brienne:

Quote

"Ned Stark was racing south with Robert's van, but my father's forces reached the city first. Pycelle convinced the king that his Warden of the West had come to defend him, so he opened the gates. The one time he should have heeded Varys, and he ignored him. My father had held back from the war, brooding on all the wrongs Aerys had done him and determined that House Lannister should be on the winning side. The Trident decided him.

"It fell to me to hold the Red Keep, but I knew we were lost. I sent to Aerys asking his leave to make terms. My man came back with a royal command. 'Bring me your father's head, if you are no traitor.' Aerys would have no yielding. Lord Rossart was with him, my messenger said. I knew what that meant.

"When I came on Rossart, he was dressed as a common man-at-arms, hurrying to a postern gate. I slew him first. Then I slew Aerys, before he could find someone else to carry his message to the pyromancers. Days later, I hunted down the others and slew them as well. Belis offered me gold, and Garigus wept for mercy. Well, a sword's more merciful than fire, but I don't think Garigus much appreciated the kindness I showed him."

Now, this raises some questions: when exactly did he find the time to change his armour? How did he know where he'll find Rossart? Also, what would Aerys have done in the unlikely case Jaime did bring him his father's head? He supposedly sent the command to burn the city already, or so Jaime assumed. Still, his own thoughts give no indication that what he tells Brienne about his past is significantly different from what he thinks the truth:

Quote

He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child?

^ this is from the same chapter

Quote

“I earned my knighthood. Nothing was given to me. I won a tourney melee at thirteen, when I was yet a squire. At fifteen, I rode with Ser Arthur Dayne against the Kingswood Brotherhood, and he knighted me on the battlefield. It was that white cloak that soiled me, not the other way around. So spare me your envy. It was the gods who neglected to give you a cock, not me.” 
The look Brienne gave him then was full of loathing. She would gladly hack me to pieces, but for her precious vow, he reflected. Good. I’ve had enough of feeble pieties and maidens’ judgments. The wench stalked off without saying a word. Jaime curled up beneath his cloak, hoping to dream of Cersei.

But when he closed his eyes, it was Aerys Targaryen he saw, pacing alone in his throne room, picking at his scabbed and bleeding hands. The fool was always cutting himself on the blades and barbs of the Iron Throne. Jaime had slipped in through the king's door, clad in his golden armor, sword in hand. The golden armor, not the white, but no one ever remembers that. Would that I had taken off that damned cloak as well.

When Aerys saw the blood on his blade, he demanded to know if it was Lord Tywin's. "I want him dead, the traitor. I want his head, you'll bring me his head, or you'll burn with all the rest. All the traitors. Rossart says they are inside the walls! He's gone to make them a warm welcome. Whose blood? Whose?"

"Rossart's," answered Jaime.

^ this is from an earlier one ... all his own thoughts. This also answers my earlier question - sounds like Aerys did give the command to burn the city, but also wanted Tywin's head I'm not sure how he was planning to avoid burning Jaime with the rest, whether or not he brought his father's head ... he was called the Mad King for a reason, after all ...

After Jaime killed Aerys (again, his own thoughts)

Quote

“Shall I proclaim a new king as well?” Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain: Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking? He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to Dragonstone, and of Rhaegar’s infant son Aegon, still in Maegor’s with his mother. A new Targaryen king, and my father as Hand. How the wolves will howl, and the storm lord choke with rage. For a moment he was tempted, until he glanced down again at the body on the floor, in its spreading pool of blood. His blood is in both of them, he thought. “Proclaim who you bloody well like,” he told Crakehall. Then he climbed the Iron Throne and seated himself with his sword across his knees, to see who would come to claim the kingdom. As it happened, it had been Eddard Stark.

Doesn't sound like he was in on Tywin's plans ...

Also, Aerys's plan to burn the city down is backed by

1. Dany's HotU vision (depending on how much faith you put in visions being accurate, but it certainly does echo Jaime's words):

Quote

Upon a towering barbed throne sat an old man in rich robes, an old man with dark eyes and long silver-grey hair. "Let him be king over charred bones and cooked meat," he said to a man below him. "Let him be the king of ashes."

vs

Quote

The traitors want my city, I heard him tell Rossart, but I'll give them naught but ashes. Let Robert be king over charred bones and cooked meat. The Targaryens never bury their dead, they burn them. Aerys meant to have the greatest funeral pyre of them all. Though if truth be told, I do not believe he truly expected to die. Like Aerion Brightfire before him, Aerys thought the fire would transform him . . . that he would rise again, reborn as a dragon, and turn all his enemies to ash.

2. the alchemists finding Rossart's 'caches':

Quote

Only last year, two hundred jars were discovered in a storeroom beneath the Great Sept of Baelor. No one could recall how they came there, but I’m sure I do not need to tell you that the High Septon was beside himself with terror.

... ... ...

"No, no," Hallyne squeaked, "the sums are accurate, I swear. We have been, hmmm, most fortunate, my lord Hand. Another cache of Lord Rossart's was found, more than three hundred jars. Under the Dragonpit! Some whores have been using the ruins to entertain their patrons, and one of them fell through a patch of rotted floor into a cellar. When he felt the jars, he mistook them for wine. He was so drunk he broke the seal and drank some."

"There was a prince who tried that once," said Tyrion dryly. "I haven't seen any dragons rising over the city, so it would seem it didn't work this time either." The Dragonpit atop the hill of Rhaenys had been abandoned for a century and a half. He supposed it was as good a place as any to store wildfire, and better than most, but it would have been nice if the late Lord Rossart had told someone.

vs

Quote

Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

 

Also, moving on from Jaime, the wider context of a passage someone quoted above is also interesting:

Quote

Ser Kevan wished that he could share his certainty. He had known Jon Connington, slightly—a proud youth, the most headstrong of the gaggle of young lordlings who had gathered around Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, competing for his royal favor. Arrogant, but able and energetic. That, and his skill at arms, was why Mad King Aerys had named him Hand. Old Lord Merryweather's inaction had allowed the rebellion to take root and spread, and Aerys wanted someone young and vigorous to match Robert's own youth and vigor. "Too soon," Lord Tywin Lannister had declared when word of the king's choice had reached Casterly Rock. "Connington is too young, too bold, too eager for glory."

The Battle of the Bells had proved the truth of that. Ser Kevan had expected that afterward Aerys would have no choice but to summon Tywin once more … but the Mad King had turned to the Lords Chelsted and Rossart instead, and paid for it with life and crown. That was all so long ago, though. If this is indeed Jon Connington, he will be a different man. Older, harder, more seasoned … more dangerous. "Connington may have more than the Golden Company. It is said he has a Targaryen pretender."

1. and this is an issue with several of Aerys's actions: he supposedly mistrusts Rhaegar, thinks his son is plotting against him - yet it's Rhaegar whom he send after the KotLT, whom he puts in charge of ending the rebellion, and it's one of Rhaegar's men he appoints as a hand. Is this a sign of his madness, or something else?

2. it almost sounds like Tywin is concerned about Aerys. Of course, it's hard to tell, it might be just a matter-of-fact evaluation of the news. I can picture Tywin saying that with an inscrutable expression on his face. But whatever his intentions were, I get the impression that he kept them even from Kevan.

 

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. I do think there's a chance Rhaegar left Jaime as the only Kingsguard in King's Landing on purpose. That he and Tywin might have thought it best to kill Aerys and that Jaime, as Tywin's son, might be less likely to get in the way than someone like Hightower. 

But that would be a manipulation, not a "plan" he made with Jaime. Jaime really seems like he was trying to stop the wildfire plot. He had a lot of other feelings re: Aerys. But he also really wanted the city NOT to burn.

 

8 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Looking at the scene, it seems like Tyrion is saying that there's at least one potential claimant to the throne that they don't need to worry about. 

Yeah, that could be it.

2 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Sure it does. The reader and the inner circle of Kings Landing might know how poor a Knight Blount is but to much of the realm he is a longstanding Kingsguard* member appointed by Joffrey's 'father' Robert. Barristan had been dismissed (something that pissed off Tywin), Jaime was a prisoner, Oakheart in Dorne, Moore and Greenfield killed. There was not much left of the previous Kings Kingsguard. It is a good PR move to retain members of the previous regime (something Robert himself did) as it adds to legitimacy to Joffrey's  crown.

On the flip side it would be a huge disaster if Blount and the missing Barristan made their way to Stannis and proclaimed him as the true King.

That's a fair point, but ... Blount was imprisoned, or do I misremember? And he's not a legend like Selmy. And he let Tywin's own blood down, and I agree with @Sly Wren that Tywin.is unforgiving when it comes to 'crimes' against his family. So I still think it's an odd move from Tywin

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

3 minutes ago, nanother said:

 

That's a fair point, but ... Blount was imprisoned, or do I misremember? And he's not a legend like Selmy. And he let Tywin's own blood down, and I agree with @Sly Wren that Tywin.is unforgiving when it comes to 'crimes' against his family. So I still think it's an odd move from Tywin

 

Jaime made him a food taster and stripped him of any dignity infront of the other Kingsguard members which Blount was very, very angry about.  If he had anything over Tywin he would have had the decision overturned.

[Sly Wren]

9 hours ago, RoamingRonin said:

If Tywin wanted Rhaegar as king, he would had Aerys killed in Duskendale when he had the chance. He could have killed his co-conspirators and the king in one fell swoop. 

He was about to invade the city when Barristan mucked it up by saving Aerys.

At that point, he needed another way to get Aerys dead, Rhaegar king, and himself plausible deniability so that he could be Hand without too much fuss.

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

@Slywren: Awesome write up on this.One of by favorite proposals of how Lyanna went missing next to it being and "inside job" and by inside i mean Stark involvement.I also love that you touched on the other theme in the Bael story and that is of a  dude getting back at a highlord for running his mouth about him.I said this on Feather's thread that we have a story that utilizes more or less the "Trickster" archetype( I'm actually doing an essay about that as we speak) to cause the "CCs-Chaos and change predominantly to suit there own ends.

 Thanks! And will be very interested to see the new Trickster essay.

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

I don't know how "in the know" Rhaegar was.Tywin IMO may have given him the impression that he was player when he really was a pawn and in this Littlefingers lesson to Sansa comes to mind.

“Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you. Remember that, Sansa, when you come to play the game.”
“What . . . what game?”

“The only game. The game of thrones.”

Did Tywin have any allies in this really or was anyone who wasn't a Lannister and enemey or better yet an interest.

Yes--I could see a scenario where Rhaegar was in on it from the first. But it seems the least likely. As you say, Tywin gives people the impression he's working with the, but he'll double cross anyone.

He even keeps his own family in the dark on some issues. He even insists to Tyrion that Amory Lorch was trying to impress Robert by killing Rhaenys and thus not doing it for Tywin.

So, yes--I think the most likely answer is that Tywin was playing both sides and there's only so much he told Rhaegar. And thus there's an excellent chance Rhaegar had no idea Tywin either took or tried to take Lyanna with lackeys.

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Could it be that Tywin's plan was ultimately to use Rhaegar to a point and leave him out to hang?

If Rhaegar had won, I've no doubt Tywin would have joined in the fight to help Rhaegar re-take the rest of the country. When Rhaegar lost, he jumped in to help Robert. So, technically, he let both sides out to hang until he could tell who won.

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Tywin took/usedRhaegar as far as he could as best served him and then he just hung back.But something in Rhaegar's tone in his last conversation with Jamie and much of the verbage of people during that time tells me the whole Lyanna going missing was a later addition and no one outside of a few people knew she was gone.I don't think Rhaegar knew  Lyanna was missing .In everybody's mind this was a rebellion,a resistence against the ruiling monarch.

Wait--are you saying that most of the country didn't know about Lyanna's being missing, or Brandon and Rickard's executions in relation to that? That seems hard to buy.

But if you are saying most didn't care too much about Lyanna and the rebellion was more about rebelling against a bad king--then, yes, that works.

But I doubt very much Rhaegar at the point he was talking to Jaime didn't know Lyanna was missing. He may have correctly assessed that Lyanna was not the core problem--Aerys was the core problem in Rhaegar's head. Thus Aerys was his focus. But it's hard to see how Rhaegar wouldn't know by then that Lyanna was missing.

[Sly Wren]

28 minutes ago, nanother said:

Regarding Jaime and what he might have known and done:

Before I dive in--well done on the research!

Okay--back on task:

28 minutes ago, nanother said:

What he tells Brienne:

Now, this raises some questions: when exactly did he find the time to change his armour? How did he know where he'll find Rossart? Also, what would Aerys have done in the unlikely case Jaime did bring him his father's head? He supposedly sent the command to burn the city already, or so Jaime assumed. Still, his own thoughts give no indication that what he tells Brienne about his past is significantly different from what he thinks the truth:

^ this is from the same chapter

^ this is from an earlier one ... all his own thoughts. This also answers my earlier question - sounds like Aerys did give the command to burn the city, but also wanted Tywin's head I'm not sure how he was planning to avoid burning Jaime with the rest, whether or not he brought his father's head ... he was called the Mad King for a reason, after all ...

1. Aerys' plan is madness as you say.

2. I agree re: the "confession" to Brienne. Jaime has no reason to censor himself (or at least hasn't shown a reason) in that conversation. So, I, too, think he's telling the truth as he sees it.

3. I had not thought on how he found the pyromancers, but that's a good point. Given all of the time he spent with Aerys who was meeting with pyromancers, perhaps their movements were brought up.

4. No idea on the armor. 

28 minutes ago, nanother said:

After Jaime killed Aerys (again, his own thoughts)

Doesn't sound like he was in on Tywin's plans ...

Also, Aerys's plan to burn the city down is backed by 1. Dany's HotU vision (depending on how much faith you put in visions being accurate, but it certainly does echo Jaime's words): vs 2. the alchemists finding Rossart's 'caches': vs

Also, moving on from Jaime, the wider context of a passage someone quoted above is also interesting:

1. and this is an issue with several of Aerys's actions: he supposedly mistrusts Rhaegar, thinks his son is plotting against him - yet it's Rhaegar whom he send after the KotLT, whom he puts in charge of ending the rebellion, and it's one of Rhaegar's men he appoints as a hand. Is this a sign of his madness, or something else?

2. it almost sounds like Tywin is concerned about Aerys. Of course, it's hard to tell, it might be just a matter-of-fact evaluation of the news. I can picture Tywin saying that with an inscrutable expression on his face. But whatever his intentions were, I get the impression that he kept them even from Kevan.

On all of the above:

1. I'm now wondering if Aerys was getting conflicting advice re: trusting Rhaegar. Rhaegar would have good reason to try to get his father to trust him, to keep him steady, until Rhaegar could get council together to depose his father. So, perhaps that's why  Aerys waffles on how much he trust Rhaegar.

2. I do not think Tywin was concerned about Aerys--he wanted that man dead. Those words were assessment if anything. And I agree that he kept his plans even from Kevan. We see him misleading his children or withholding information from them now that they are adults. Seems like Tywin has a habit of not telling even his family what he's up to. Which fits with the way he'll use even family to get what he wants.

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Sure it does. The reader and the inner circle of Kings Landing might know how poor a Knight Blount is but to much of the realm he is a longstanding Kingsguard* member appointed by Joffrey's 'father' Robert. Barristan had been dismissed (something that pissed off Tywin), Jaime was a prisoner, Oakheart in Dorne, Moore and Greenfield killed. There was not much left of the previous Kings Kingsguard. It is a good PR move to retain members of the previous regime (something Robert himself did) as it adds to legitimacy to Joffrey's  crown.

Blount gave up Tommen without a fight. Look at what Tywin did to the innkeeper who let armed men take Tyrion. Martin shows us exactly what Tywin does to those who threaten the lives of Lannisters--even ones he hates. But we're supposed to believe Tywin would be cool with Blount protecting Joffrey and Tommen, Tywin's ruling Lannister puppets and his legacy?

4 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

On the flip side it would be a huge disaster if Blount and the missing Barristan made their way to Stannis and proclaimed him as the true King.

There's a big difference between Barristan the Bold and Boros "I gave up the heir to the throne without a fight" Blount. 

4 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

*In AGOT Bran is pretty impressed with the Kingsguard visiting Winterfell

Two of the Kingsguard had come north with King Robert. Bran had watched them with fascination, never quite daring to speak to them. Ser Boros was a bald man with a jowly face, and Ser Meryn had droopy eyes and a beard the color of rust. Ser Jaime Lannister looked more like the knights in the stories, and he was of the Kingsguard too, but Robb said he had killed the old mad king and shouldn't count anymore.

And Ned never thinks negatively of Blount.

In that quote, it sounds like Jaime was the one that actually impressed Bran.

And Ned doesn't think negatively of a number of people. But Bran does remember Ned's saying that the kingsguard is no longer what it used to be. No longer the greatest.

The key point would be what does Tywin think of Blount.

44 minutes ago, nanother said:

That's a fair point, but ... Blount was imprisoned, or do I misremember? And he's not a legend like Selmy. And he let Tywin's own blood down, and I agree with @Sly Wren that Tywin.is unforgiving when it comes to 'crimes' against his family. So I still think it's an odd move from Tywin

Yup!

37 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Jaime made him a food taster and stripped him of any dignity infront of the other Kingsguard members which Blount was very, very angry about.  If he had anything over Tywin he would have had the decision overturned.

Oh, no--my apologies for not being clear. I did not mean to imply that I think Blount is blackmailing Tywin. I think Tywin keeps the man around because he knows Blount is willing to do things for him and keep his mouth shut.

Like Tywin keeps the horror that is the Mountain around even after what he did to Elia and the Targ children. Why he keeps Amory Lorch around.

But Tywin would sell both of them out if necessary--he insists to Tyrion that Lorch killed Rhaenys to impress Robert and thus it's not Tywin's responsibility. And that he will tell Oberyn this and since Lorch died horribly, that should get the onus off of Tywin.

But then Tywin says he will not give up Gregor Clegane to Oberyn because he's too useful:

 

Quote

 

"Not to . . . ?" Tyrion was shocked. "I thought we were agreed that the woods were full of beasts."

"Lesser beasts." Lord Tywin's fingers laced together under his chin. "Ser Gregor has served us well. No other knight in the realm inspires such terror in our enemies." Storm, Tyrion VI

 

 

Tywin will give up Lorch as "guilty" to Oberyn because that "beast" is already dead. But he won't give up a very useful living beast when he doesn't have to. 

That's why Tywin protects men like this--their usefulness to him. Blount has proved that he's useless as a Kingsguard. Jaime knows this and makes him the food taster.

But Blount is still in his place, reinstated by Tywin--which means he's useful to Tywin. How? He must have proved his worth before.

[DarkSister1001]

11 hours ago, RoamingRonin said:

It's neither.

If Tywin wanted Rhaegar as king, he would had Aerys killed in Duskendale when he had the chance. He could have killed his co-conspirators and the king in one fell swoop. 

I think Barristan robbed him of that.  Tywin set Barristan up for failure and Barristan succeeded.  He gave him very little time to get Aerys out alive but had to appear to be doing something to save him.