Sly Wren Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 20 hours ago, Nevets said: It's likely that any guard she has would be primarily to deter opportunistic local outlaws and the like, and not people or groups intent on causing actual trouble. It's quite possible that Rhaegar offered to escort her someplace safe, and things went wrong. If someone attacked Rhaegar and his friends and Lyanna and her guard as they were all going to a safe location--that's a pretty big deal. Seems like the sort of thing Rhaegar would be likely to report--an attack on the crown prince--as soon as he got somewhere safe. It's possible, but unless Rhaegar wanted to hold onto Lyanna (as posited in the OP), why wouldn't he report it? Quote Or, maybe Tywin knew about Rhaegar's interest in involving Lyanna in fulfilling the prophecies (which I think Rhaegar had), and was hoping that Rhaegar would take this opportunity to try to convince Lyanna and either succeed or run off with her. Ned's comments about her "wolf's blood" and about 15-year-olds not having sense lend some credence to this possibility. I agree that Rhaegar was clearly interested in prophecy. But talking about such things with Tywin. . . we know Rhaegar discussed it with Aemon. Tywin seems like an unlikely sympathetic ear. If Rhaegar has said something about wanting a Stark. . . maybe. But so far, no indication he innately wanted a Stark. As for convincing Lyanna to help him get his prophecy child--if that's what happened I really want to hear that conversation. That must have been one hell of a speech. We have an example of prophecy-driven folk with Stannis, Mel, and Selyse. In that case, we've got Selyse being closer to Mel at first and then convincing Stannis. They keep that circle close, only true believers. We know Ashara is Elia's lady in waiting. Both Dornish. Probably came to court together. And Ashara is Arthur's sister--Rhaegar's best friend. All in one circle. All together in King's Landing or on Dragonstone (where we see Stannis, Mel, and Selyse discuss prophecy) where they can safely discuss it all. Seems like if Rhaegar wanted a third prophecy child, he'd be more likely to choose a woman he trusted. That in NO way denies that Jon could end up being Rhaegar and Lyanna's child--the idea that Rhaegar got his prophecy child by accident is a viable option. But a plan to steal Lyanna and talk her into a Targaryen prophecy seems much less likely compared to what Martin has already shown us re: religious/prophectic true believers. 20 hours ago, Nevets said: GRRM likes to do "perfect storm" stories, where disparate events come together in the worst way possible to create the greatest amount of trouble. If my idea is true, that could be the case here. Maybe she decided to go along with the prophecy idea, or decided to take the opportunity to break her betrothal to Robert. In this scenario, everything that could go wrong, would. I agree on the perfect storm idea. Which is one of the things my OP relies on. And that I think Tywin relied on. And that we definitely see Baelish rely on. But I struggle to see anything in the text that shows Lyanna would have gone along with such a thing. Accepted help in a crisis? Absolutely--we see that with both Sansa and Arya. But embrace a prophecy cult idea? Can't find it. 20 hours ago, Nevets said: One reason I prefer this idea is that it makes Rhaegar's taking of Lyanna appear to be unprovoked. If he is doing an actual rescue, there is too much chance of that fact getting out, in which case Rhaegar is the hero, not the goat. But look at how Ned's actions in King's Landing get spun. Baelish's murder of Lysa has two witnesses--and still gets spun. The idea that Tywin couldn't spin the story--we've seen too much to doubt it's being very possible. And the novels very clearly leave any witnesses to the "abduction" out. Same with the World Book. It just teases us. Humph!!! That info gets left out for a reason. Meanwhile, we're told flat out that Tywin and Aerys loathe each other and that Tywin wants power. In the novels, we see HOW Tywin works. We've never seen Rhaegar do something as reckless as just take a highborn girl. We have seen Tywin act like this. And Baelish, too. We know this could work. 20 hours ago, Nevets said: I am firmly of the belief that Rhaegar took Lyanna directly. I think GRRM is not completely fooling us on this. The motives might be in doubt, but I don't really doubt the bare facts that we are given. Fair enough, but the bare facts are almost non-existent. And perhaps you were far more prescient than I, but I did not see Lysa's confession at the Moon Door coming. I saw the Red Wedding coming a mile away. I saw Ned's execution coming. As soon as I read "Lyanna in her bed of blood," RLJ was confirmed as a very likely possibility. I got all that on my first read. But I never saw Lysa and Baelish as the initial instigators of the war. That confession stunned me. Martin has shown us flat out how Robb's Rebellion really got started. And the ones who were blamed were not the instigators. Rhaegar has been "blamed" for starting Robert's Rebellion. The idea that he, like Cersei and Jaime, might not have been the instigator, has to be on the table given what Martin's shown us. 20 hours ago, Nevets said: Also, Blount's sigil is never mentioned in the text, despite opportunity to do so. If GRRM intended the porcupine to be Blount, and it's a clue, as you suggest, then he would have mentioned it somewhere. For example, in ASOS, Jaime is reading through the White Book, which includes the KG's sigils. It would have been very easy for Martin to have him read about his fellow KG and notice the porcupine sigil in the corner. Since he didn't, I'm skeptical that it matters. Completely fair. I need to message @Ran and ask what the source is for the sigils in the Citadel. But so far, the info we get on Harrenhal seems very important. And we know two of the defeated knights are used as Tywin's lackeys. We know the men the story names as Ashara's dance partners are all key players. Seems like we're being given a lot of info in Meera's little tale. And that the sigils are given because they count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Wren Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 16 hours ago, nanother said: I looked into the World Book for an Aerys& Tywin timeline. It doesn't have to do with the Porcupine Knight, but maybe helps to better understand what was going on between them, so I don't think it's too far off topic. Very on topic! 16 hours ago, nanother said: Note that the main source for all this is Pycelle, loyal to House Lannister and a huge Tywin fan. pre-259: Also, at some point, Aerys married Rhaella and Rhaegar was conceived. Seeing that Aerys was 18 when he ascended to the throne, he must have been 15 or younger when this happened. Hopefully Rhaella was his older sister. 259: Summerhall, Rhaegar born, Jaehaerys becomes King. Joanna Lannister goes to court, rumour (unfounded, maester Pycelle assures us) is that Aerys deflowered her and made her his paramour. 260: 261: Extinction of houses Reyne and Tarbeck 262: Aerys King, Tywin Hand 263: Tywin's wedding, where Aerys reportedly tooks some 'unwonted liberties'. Joanna is dismissed from court soon after. 266: Cersei & Jaime born 267: Tywin's father dies 268: 270-ish: Aerys begins to dismiss westernmen he suspects being 'Hand's men' from their positions. Appoints Darry as Master of Arms of the Red Keep, instead of Tygett Lannister. 272: Tywin attempts to resign over an insult to Joanna, but Aerys refuses: 273: Joanna dies giving birth to Tyrion. Oberyn and Elia visit with their mother, Tywin refuses the proposed matches. Ilyn Payne de-tongued for boasting that it's Tywin who really rules the realm. In general, "the king grew ever more erratic, violent, and suspicious". 276: Viserys born, Tywin proposes to wed Cersei to Rhaegar and is refused 277: Duskendale Okay--that list makes me even more suspicious that Tywin had a hand in encouraging the Darklyns' Defiance. He'd been swallowing Aerys' insults for a while. He'd had huge success with the extinction of the Reynes and Tjrbecks. Obviously he can't do the same with Aerys. But the idea that he would want to not wait until someone rebelled--that I can see. We've also got the Myrish wife of Darklyn--Serala. Seems to be a potential echo of her in Taena with Cersei. Tywin uses another woman of Essosi origin--Sybell Spicer--to help him jump start the Red Wedding. No way that's enough info, but it does make me wonder. As well as how/where Aerys got the brilliant idea to show up Tywin by dealing with the Darklyns himself. 16 hours ago, nanother said: 278: Aerys grows madder and more paranoid 279: Rhaegar betrothed to Elia; Tywin brings Cersei to court; Varys is imported from Pentos 280: Rhaenys born, Harrenhal tourney announced late in the year 281: Grandison dies, Jaime appointed, Harrenhal 283: Tywin shows up with an army at the gates of KL Yup! Aerys really stepped up his game of "goad the lion." 16 hours ago, nanother said: A few things that stand out: 1. What reason did Tywin have to think Aerys was going to accept the marriage proposal? They had been at odds for several years by then and Aerys had been "undermining him in ways both great and small." I'm wondering if they'd talked about it earlier when they were friendly? And Tywin was thinking Aerys would want to fix things so as to strengthen the alliance? Or Tywin's arrogance getting the better of him? 16 hours ago, nanother said: 2. His comment about "having a better king" at Duskendale - I find it hard to believe that he really said that out loud and in front of witnessess. Yeah--that does seem odd. But it also seems like the sort of thing that did have witnesses. The "debating his meaning" thing makes it sound like he at least said something similar. 16 hours ago, nanother said: 3. Joanna. Did Aerys start antagonising Tywin because he was obsessed with Joanna, or was he obsessed with Joanna because she was his rival's wife? Or even because she was his rival's intended? If she looked anything like Cersei, the idea that she was desirable per se seems likely. Either way, Aerys stepped up his goading game when they married. 16 hours ago, nanother said: 4. It's repeated several times (in TWoIaF and the books) that "Tywin ruled the Seven Kingdoms, but was ruled at home by his lady wife". Indeed, it seems that the marriage plans for Cersei changed from Oberyn to Rhaegar as soon as Joanna died. Well done. I'd missed that connection. But yes--that makes sense. And makes me again wonder if Tywin is acting on a previous plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Wren Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 16 hours ago, nanother said: FWIW, Tywin remarks at some point that at the time of the sack, "Ser Amory acted on his own in the hope of winning favor from the new king. Robert's hatred for Rhaegar was scarcely a secret." Sounds like that Lorch had no way of knowing who the new king was yet. Unless it was an open secret, but then why did Crakehall ask Jaime who to proclaim? OOH! Good catch! I missed that. So, he's clearly lying, even to Tyrion. As always--he only tells what is needed and what will help him. 16 hours ago, nanother said: Another puzzling tidbit is about restoring Pycelle: Tyrion is quite wrong about Pycelle being his sister's creature. He's Tywin's, above all. He worked with him ever since he firts became a Hand, and he was the one advising Aerys to open the gates for Tywin: He sounds as loyal and useful as you can get, yet Tywin needed the threat of a Highgarden maester to restore him ... Another fabulous catch! And Pycelle was actually involved in plotting and things (which I doubt very much with men like Blount, Lorch, and Clegane). Trusted with secrets--though he gives them up to another Lannister when threatened. Maybe that's why Tywin though to leave him in the cells. But the fact that Tywin had to be arm twisted into re-instating a provenly useful man does lend credence to the idea that he only reinstated Blount for his usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nanother Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Sly Wren said: Very on topic! Okay--that list makes me even more suspicious that Tywin had a hand in encouraging the Darklyns' Defiance. He'd been swallowing Aerys' insults for a while. He'd had huge success with the extinction of the Reynes and Tjrbecks. Obviously he can't do the same with Aerys. But the idea that he would want to not wait until someone rebelled--that I can see. We've also got the Myrish wife of Darklyn--Serala. Seems to be a potential echo of her in Taena with Cersei. Tywin uses another woman of Essosi origin--Sybell Spicer--to help him jump start the Red Wedding. No way that's enough info, but it does make me wonder. As well as how/where Aerys got the brilliant idea to show up Tywin by dealing with the Darklyns himself. Quite possibly: Quote The ancient harbor town of Duskendale had been a seat of kings of old, in the days of the Hundred Kingdoms. Once the most important port on Blackwater Bay, the town had seen its trade dwindle and its wealth shrink as King's Landing grew and burgeoned, a decline that its young lord, Denys Darklyn, wished to halt. Many have long debated why Lord Darklyn chose to do what he did, but most agree that his Myrish wife, the Lady Serala, played some part. Her detractors blame her entirely for what transpired; the Lace Serpent, as they name her, poisoned Lord Darklyn against his king with her pillow talk. Her defenders insist that the folly lay with Lord Denys himself; his wife is hated simply because she was a woman of foreign birth who prayed to gods alien to Westeros. It was Lord Denys's desire to win a charter for Duskendale that would give it more autonomy from the crown, much as had been done for Dorne many years before, that began the trouble. This did not seem to him such a vast demand; such charters were common across the narrow sea, as Lady Serala most certainly had told him. Yet it was understandable that Lord Tywin, as Hand, firmly rejected his proposals, for fear it might set a dangerous precedent. Infuriated at the refusal, Lord Darklyn then devised a new plan to win his charter (and with it, lower port fees and tariffs to allow Duskendale once more to vie for trade with King's Landing)—a plan that was pure folly. The Defiance of Duskendale began quietly enough. Lord Denys, seeing that Aerys's erratic behavior had begun to strain his relations with Lord Tywin, refused to pay the taxes expected of him and instead invited the king to come to Duskendale and hear his petition. It seems most unlikely that King Aerys would ever have considered accepting this invitation...until Lord Tywin advised him to refuse in the strongest possible terms, whereupon the king decided to accept, informing Grand Maester Pycelle and the small council that he meant to settle this matter himself and bring the defiant Darklyn to heel. The big question is whether Lord Darklyn was simply an idiot, hoped for some support that didn't come, was outright duped, or something else entirely. I mean, taking your King hostage and threatening to kill him? FFS. Let's say he carries it out - he won't have any leverage anymore, and even if there is a plot to replace Aerys, and he heard rumours of such, how likely are they to thank him for doing so? Or did he really hope that Tywin would get bored and go home? 2 hours ago, Sly Wren said: I'm wondering if they'd talked about it earlier when they were friendly? And Tywin was thinking Aerys would want to fix things so as to strengthen the alliance? Or Tywin's arrogance getting the better of him? ... Well done. I'd missed that connection. But yes--that makes sense. And makes me again wonder if Tywin is acting on a previous plan. To be fair, it's Oberyn's speculation that their mothers came up with the plan to cross-marry thetwo pairs of siblings. It's not clear how firm the agreement was, or if it was really there in the first place. I mean, it doesn't seem to make any political sense, so it's hard to believe more than one of those marriages would have happened even if Joanna lived. Not sure about earlier agreement between Aerys and Tywin - Cersei was only a year or two old when the problems already begun, but there may have been talks or tentative plans between them. Cersei said she was no more than 6 or 7 when Tywin told her about the plan. Joanna died when she was 7, but it's not clear from the quote whether it was before, or slightly after that. Before is more likely, though, both based on her age and the fact that there's no indication that either of them was grieving at the time: Quote When she was just a little girl, her father had promised her that she would marry Rhaegar. She could not have been more than six or seven. "Never speak of it, child," he had told her, smiling his secret smile that only Cersei ever saw. "Not until His Grace agrees to the betrothal. It must remain our secret for now." What we know for sure is that she was 10 to Rhaegar's 17 when Tywin proposed the match - which would have meant a long betrothal. Which is't necessarily a problem, but it makes the wording in TWoIaF's account a bit odd: Quote Perhaps seeking to gain advantage of His Grace's high spirits, Lord Tywin chose that very night to suggest that it was past time the king's heir wed and produced an heir of his own; he proposed his own daughter, Cersei, as wife for the crown prince. Also, FWIW: Quote Mayhaps [the tournament] was meant to be a gesture toward reconciliation. There the wealth and power of House Lannister was displayed for all the realm to see. King Aerys at first refused to attend, then relented, but the queen and her new son were kept under confinement back at King's Landing. 2 hours ago, Sly Wren said: OOH! Good catch! I missed that. So, he's clearly lying, even to Tyrion. As always--he only tells what is needed and what will help him. To be fair, he doesn't expect Tyrion to believe it - he just sketches the 'official' story to tell the Dornish. 2 hours ago, Sly Wren said: Another fabulous catch! And Pycelle was actually involved in plotting and things (which I doubt very much with men like Blount, Lorch, and Clegane). Trusted with secrets--though he gives them up to another Lannister when threatened. Maybe that's why Tywin though to leave him in the cells. But the fact that Tywin had to be arm twisted into re-instating a provenly useful man does lend credence to the idea that he only reinstated Blount for his usefulness. TBH this can cut in both ways - either Boros is exceptionally useful, which I have trouble seeing ... or usefulness isn't always a factor for Tywin Good point about him possibly thinking that Pycelle gave up his secrets too easily, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Great work, Sly Wren! I'd been arguing lately that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna for political reasons, and that the ultimate goal was to remove Aerys. The main problem with this is that it is hard to see how Rhaegar could be certain that causing war would benefit him. Your theory however provides the missing piece: Rhaegar was played by Tywin, who was in a perfect position to do so, had both the reasons and the means, and who could play both sides in the coming conflict. I'm now convinced that Duskendale proved that Tywin was actively trying to get Aerys killed. Your weak point is the abduction itself. Maybe I missed it, but I don't think you explain too well who actually abducted Lyanna and why. Last year I tried to argue that Rhaegar was only framed for it, but the app' apparently says he did, with Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent. I'm not sure how Tywin got Rhaegar to do it exactly, and this is where you/we are forced to speculate. But the theory that Tywin was the one who acted to initiate the conflict between the STAB alliance and the Crown seems very likely to me. The books themselves made it unclear which part Tywin was playing in the rebellion, and left open the possibility that he had been a shadow player ; the World Book provides tons of evidence to say so, Two more things I agree with: On 13/05/2016 at 9:00 PM, NutBurz said: Both the Lannisters and the Targaryen are diplomaticly exhausted. Both rely on the status quo and sheer political power to keep themselves influential, but the status quo is changing and Tywin and Aerys had been undermining each other. Aerys was never a great politician and strategist, but Tywin was, and he most likely was the political tutor of Rhaegar. Like it´s said in the OP, Starks, Tullys, Baratheon and Arryn had been strenghtening their political ties, while Rhaegar was to have Dornish children. Tywin couldn´t possibly like that, and he most likely tried to influence Rhaegar against this arrangement. Yes. At the time of Harrenhal, the Lannisters were weakened. It's unlikely Tywin would be content to let that happen without doing anything. On 17/05/2016 at 0:54 AM, nanother said: Yup, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Tywin turned out to be behind Lyanna's disappearance, and I'd be very surprised if he just sat back after resigning from Handship and waited for events to unfold. It'd also make sense for him to play both (or even all three) sides of the conflict. Edit: a few additional thoughts. A) I've always wondered why everyone (and the World Book) thought that Rhaegar provided the funds for the Harrenhal tournament when Tywin and the Lannisters' huge wealth were a likely candidate as well (also, Rhaegar was closely watched by Aerys supporters). I still think ti's possible Rhaegar and Tywin acted together on this one. There are three reasons for this: - Whenever you think of gold, you just have to think of the Lannisters. And the World Book was written with a bias toward Tywin. - The books pretty much tell us that Rhaegar meant to call a council to depose Aerys at Harrenhal (we have that perfect Rhaegar quote to Jaime before the Trident). It's unlikely Rhaegar was willing to try this without having the support of at least one Lord Paramount. And the best candidate would be Tywin. Rhaegar probably had the support of Dorne as well at this point, since Aerys's mistrust for the Dornish was well-known. - I don't think Rhaegar would be thrilled to kidnap Lyanna and antagonise the STAB alliance. However, he was no doubt willing to plot with Tywin to organise a council. So I think Rhaegar plotted with Tywin for a peaceful solution (to Aerys) at first, but that it was Tywin who went for the more radical approach (using STAB) after Aerys showed up at Harrenhal. B ) Geographically speaking, the Lannisters would have to plot to undermine a STAB alliance. Even under Targaryan rule, I don't see the Lannisters being happy about their neighbors (Baratheons and Tullys most importantly) building a strong alliance together. C) I think ultimately, Robert's rebellion was the result of many shadow players plotting, sometimes together and sometimes not, sometimes with common goals and sometimes not. Here's a possible list (from most likely to least likely imho): - Rhaegar wanted to depose his father (probably peacefully, at least at first). - Tywin Lannister wanted to prevent the weakening of his house and had grown to despise Aerys. A conflict between STAB and the Crown was perfect for him. - Rickard Stark had "southern ambitions" (and let's remember that Lady Dustin notwithstanding, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully may have had plans of their own). - The maesters of the Citadel were trying to end Targaryan rule (to prevent the return of the dragons and/or magic). - Varys wanted the Targaryans out (possibly because he is or supports the Blackfyres). - Young Littlefinger wanted revenge on Brandon Stark. - The Hightowers had a secret agenda as well (and possibly the Whents) linked to magic (and perhaps prophecy). - Bloodraven may have influenced things from afar. - A faceless man may have been involved somewhere (taking someone's appearance at some point). Alternatively, a glamour may have been involved (the last D&E story heavily suggests Bloodraven could use glamouring before the return of the dragons). I don't think we get the end result (the last Targaryans on the run, Rhaegar dead, Robert on the throne with Cersei Lannister as queen... ) without several separate schemes colliding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Wren Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 23 hours ago, nanother said: The big question is whether Lord Darklyn was simply an idiot, hoped for some support that didn't come, was outright duped, or something else entirely. I mean, taking your King hostage and threatening to kill him? FFS. Let's say he carries it out - he won't have any leverage anymore, and even if there is a plot to replace Aerys, and he heard rumours of such, how likely are they to thank him for doing so? Or did he really hope that Tywin would get bored and go home? 1. I actually face-palmed over the quotes you gave. Somehow I missed that in my working out this thread and can't quite believe it. So, well done. 2. The idiocy of the Darklyns: this may be where Tywin also came in. If the Darklyns though they had a deal with Tywin, that this was all staged (rather like the Red Wedding) then the idiocy might be a bit less. Though Making a deal with Tywin seems insane. We also have the Kingswood Brotherhood attacking Elia, which I'm starting to think might be a Tywin thing, too. Like Tywin used the Brave Companions. The comparison: if they, too, intended to take Elia for a political gain, they'd need some assurance that the kidnapping of a Dornish Princess would work out for them. Tywin has the court to give those assurances, even if he never meant to keep them. The same could be true of the Darklyns. Though the Darklyns might just be idiots--especially since this is all hypothetical. 23 hours ago, nanother said: To be fair, it's Oberyn's speculation that their mothers came up with the plan to cross-marry thetwo pairs of siblings. It's not clear how firm the agreement was, or if it was really there in the first place. I mean, it doesn't seem to make any political sense, so it's hard to believe more than one of those marriages would have happened even if Joanna lived. Not sure about earlier agreement between Aerys and Tywin - Cersei was only a year or two old when the problems already begun, but there may have been talks or tentative plans between them. Cersei said she was no more than 6 or 7 when Tywin told her about the plan. Joanna died when she was 7, but it's not clear from the quote whether it was before, or slightly after that. Before is more likely, though, both based on her age and the fact that there's no indication that either of them was grieving at the time: All true. This could just be a sign of Tywin's arrogance, a belief that anyone would see Cersei as a great match for the crown prince. 23 hours ago, nanother said: What we know for sure is that she was 10 to Rhaegar's 17 when Tywin proposed the match - which would have meant a long betrothal. Which is't necessarily a problem, but it makes the wording in TWoIaF's account a bit odd: Quote Perhaps seeking to gain advantage of His Grace's high spirits, Lord Tywin chose that very night to suggest that it was past time the king's heir wed and produced an heir of his own; he proposed his own daughter, Cersei, as wife for the crown prince. I had not put the ages together with that quote. Which makes that quote rather creepy. So, perhaps Tywin wasn't planning on a very long betrothal after all. 23 hours ago, nanother said: To be fair, he doesn't expect Tyrion to believe it - he just sketches the 'official' story to tell the Dornish. True, but I don't think he cares whether Tyrion believes as long as Tyrion sticks to the story. 23 hours ago, nanother said: TBH this can cut in both ways - either Boros is exceptionally useful, which I have trouble seeing ... or usefulness isn't always a factor for Tywin Good point about him possibly thinking that Pycelle gave up his secrets too easily, though. The only reason to protect a man like Lorch is that he's a blunt instrument that Tywin has relied on to do his bidding. The Mountain is exceptionally brutal, but Tywin still only gives up Lorch after Lorch is dead. Seems like if he finds a weapon that works he keeps it. And the fact that Blount gets reinstated must mean Blount did what Tywin wanted at some point. There's no other reason I can find to bring that idiot back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Wren Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: Great work, Sly Wren! Thanks! Quote I'd been arguing lately that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna for political reasons, and that the ultimate goal was to remove Aerys. The main problem with this is that it is hard to see how Rhaegar could be certain that causing war would benefit him. Your theory however provides the missing piece: Rhaegar was played by Tywin, who was in a perfect position to do so, had both the reasons and the means, and who could play both sides in the coming conflict. I'm now convinced that Duskendale proved that Tywin was actively trying to get Aerys killed. I saw your arguments on RLJ on this subject--very well done! And, yes, the World Book really seems to tell us that Duskendale was Tywin's first attempt to really take out Aerys. 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: Your weak point is the abduction itself. Maybe I missed it, but I don't think you explain too well who actually abducted Lyanna and why. Last year I tried to argue that Rhaegar was only framed for it, but the app' apparently says he did, with Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent. I'm not sure how Tywin got Rhaegar to do it exactly, and this is where you/we are forced to speculate. On the abduction--the OP has a number of options because I can't see how we have enough info to pin it down. I do think the three knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree are involved--all three are Tywin lackeys or from families that are Tywin lackeys. And Tywin could use their grievances as cover for his own purposes--as he does with the Darklyns. Even as he does with Amory Lorch, as was pointed out upthread by others--Lorch couldn't know Robert would be king yet since other Lannister men ask Jaime who the king will be. That said, if Rhaegar took her from people who had her, they could lie and say he just took her. If the men attacked and Lyanna ran (as Arya does) too be found by Rhaegar later (as Arya is found by Yoren, Beric, and then taken by the Hound), those who attacked should still blame Rhaegar. And, obviously there are other options. And all of them could, even with the app: Beric takes and holds Arya--for her own good, but also for his: he's hoping to get money for his cause. The Hound wants money for himself. In both cases, they "took" her. But how they got to that "taking" has leeway. Quote But the theory that Tywin was the one who acted to initiate the conflict between the STAB alliance and the Crown seems very likely to me. The books themselves made it unclear which part Tywin was playing in the rebellion, and left open the possibility that he had been a shadow player ; the World Book provides tons of evidence to say so, 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: A) I've always wondered why everyone (and the World Book) thought that Rhaegar provided the funds for the Harrenhal tournament when Tywin and the Lannisters' huge wealth were a likely candidate as well (also, Rhaegar was closely watched by Aerys supporters). I still think ti's possible Rhaegar and Tywin acted together on this one. There are three reasons for this: - Whenever you think of gold, you just have to think of the Lannisters. And the World Book was written with a bias toward Tywin. - The books pretty much tell us that Rhaegar meant to call a council to depose Aerys at Harrenhal (we have that perfect Rhaegar quote to Jaime before the Trident). It's unlikely Rhaegar was willing to try this without having the support of at least one Lord Paramount. And the best candidate would be Tywin. Rhaegar probably had the support of Dorne as well at this point, since Aerys's mistrust for the Dornish was well-known. Agreed. Which might even explain the idea @nanother and I were dealing with upthread re: Tywin's pushing Cersei as Rhaegar's wife. If Tywin and Rhaegar had already decided, Tywin might think he had enough leverage. And it would be a point of trust between them. Rhaegar's "trust" or at least reliance on Tywin might also explain why he leaves Jaime alone in King's Landing. He doesn't leave a more reliable, older Kingsguard. He leaves Tywin's heir, angry and disillusioned about the Kingsguard and unlikely to side with Aerys over his father. That's who Rhaegar left instead of bringing back Hightower or leaving Barristan. If Rhaegar and Tywin had plans for taking the city from Aerys after the Trident, having Jaime as sole Kingsguard would be helpful. Because council or no council, if Rhaegar wanted the throne, he'd have to depose Aerys with force. Quote - I don't think Rhaegar would be thrilled to kidnap Lyanna and antagonise the STAB alliance. However, he was no doubt willing to plot with Tywin to organise a council. So I think Rhaegar plotted with Tywin for a peaceful solution (to Aerys) at first, but that it was Tywin who went for the more radical approach (using STAB) after Aerys showed up at Harrenhal. YUP! That's why one of the OP options was that Rhaegar knew of the plan and played the role of rescuer. It's not my favorite--but it would keep Rhaegar in the clear with Lyanna after the war was done. He'd need Lyanna to think him a rescuer, not an attacker. 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: B ) Geographically speaking, the Lannisters would have to plot to undermine a STAB alliance. Even under Targaryan rule, I don't see the Lannisters being happy about their neighbors (Baratheons and Tullys most importantly) building a strong alliance together. Agreed. Tywin wants to be the ruling family. The STAB alliance would be a block of power against the crown. Tywin would want that limited once he got his own heirs on the throne. 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: C) I think ultimately, Robert's rebellion was the result of many shadow players plotting, sometimes together and sometimes not, sometimes with common goals and sometimes not. Here's a possible list (from most likely to least likely imho): - Rhaegar wanted to depose his father (probably peacefully, at least at first). - Tywin Lannister wanted to prevent the weakening of his house and had grown to despise Aerys. A conflict between STAB and the Crown was perfect for him. - Rickard Stark had "southern ambitions" (and let's remember that Lady Dustin notwithstanding, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully may have had plans of their own). - The maesters of the Citadel were trying to end Targaryan rule (to prevent the return of the dragons and/or magic). - Varys wanted the Targaryans out (possibly because he is or supports the Blackfyres). - Young Littlefinger wanted revenge on Brandon Stark. - The Hightowers had a secret agenda as well (and possibly the Whents) linked to magic (and perhaps prophecy). - Bloodraven may have influenced things from afar. - A faceless man may have been involved somewhere (taking someone's appearance at some point). Alternatively, a glamour may have been involved (the last D&E story heavily suggests Bloodraven could use glamouring before the return of the dragons). YUP! Just like Robb's Rebellion and the War of the 5 Kings. Tywin would have seen all the messes. All he needed was an impetus to stir things up. Then sit back, evaluate, and stir again as needed. 3 hours ago, Rippounet said: I don't think we get the end result (the last Targaryans on the run, Rhaegar dead, Robert on the throne with Cersei Lannister as queen... ) without several separate schemes colliding. Agreed--and without a certain amount of basic human error and reactions. That's why a plan from a-z won't work. It had to be push a button, see what happens, then do something else. We only see in the novels where these schemes worked out for Tywin--the Red Wedding. The marriage to Jeyne Poole. The World Book showed us at least one place where it didn't work. Makes me wonder just how many things Tywin might have tried over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynnS Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 5/17/2016 at 10:47 AM, Sly Wren said: Elia knew of Rhaegar's desire for a third child and the Prince that was Promised stuff. It's one of the reasons why I think Ashara and Rhaegar are a good potential for producing that third child--Dany. Who better to help your husband get his prophecy than a lady in wanting and friend you can trust? I don't think I've ever seen this analysis but I do like everything about it. I'm also of the opinion that the Dany is the third child by Rhaegar and that Ashara is most likely her mother. I think there is a reason that Howland pays so much attention to Ashara at the Tourney beyond any involvement with politics. Elia, Ashara and Lyanna are mothers to significant offspring in the story. So I'm guessing that their fathers are present as well. I'm not convinced that Aegon is a fake and if the vision in the HoU is true; then Rhaegar thinks he is the PwiP and would be invested in making sure that he survives. Dany proves that she is part of the prophecy by waking the dragon and then hatching dragons from stone. In that same vision; Rhaegar speaks to someone in the room or just outside the door and I think most likely a lady in waiting who attended Ageon's birth. Dany thinks he is speaking to her; but I think he's speaking to Ashara and Dany is standing in her mother's place. I take Barristan Selmy's observation that Dany look like a younger version of Ashera to be true. Where does this leave Jon? When Aemon talks about dreams but not the dreamer; this could be Rhaegar but I'd speculate that he went to Summerhall to seek out the Ghost of High Heart and trade songs for dreams. She is likely the wood's witch who made the original prophecy. I think it's possible that he learned something about Lyanna from her; but she never names names; so it's likely that Rhaegar 'looked twice' at Lyanna for another reason. He recognized something about her; perhaps something the GoHH told him. I think it's relevant to note that Ned says that Rhaegar gave Lyanna the Queen of Beauty's Laurel. He doesn't call it the Queen of Love and Beauty's laurel. It's Barristan Selmy who makes that leap because of his feelings for Ashara. Rhaegar doesn't actually crown Lyanna; he places the laurel in her lap. I could take that to mean that the crown isn't meant for Lyanna but for the child she will hold in her lap. The Starks no longer have crowns but the crown of winter roses seems like a substitute for the crown of the king of winter. So while I agree with all the reason why Rhaegar would safeguard Lyanna and her child, to be the hero of the story; I don't think he is Jon's father. There is no benefit to returning Lyanna to Robert or Ned with a bastard son by Rhaegar. It certainly wouldn't please Tywin who would see Lyanna as an obstacle either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly Wren Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 hours ago, LynnS said: I don't think I've ever seen this analysis but I do like everything about it. I'm also of the opinion that the Dany is the third child by Rhaegar and that Ashara is most likely her mother. Amen. I've said it before and I intend to repeat myself: Martin shows us this potential with Stannis (a part Targ who believes it's his destiny to be on the throne), Selyse (a wife who believes in her husband's destiny--Elia clearly knew about the prophecy stuff), and Mel (the gorgeous, magical consort--close to the wife and a true believer). That trio does meet up with a Stark (almost) maid--Jon. And we see the Stark take on the conquering, and prophecies, and all the rest of it-- No. Maybe Lyanna was kidnapped by the Cult of the Dragon Must Have Three Heads. But Martin's given us no reason to think she'd be a true believer. Even Arya, who joins a death cult, maintains her sense of morality. No--Martin's shown us that the Cult looks for true believers--not recent, kidnapped converts--as confidants. And when Mel tries to make a confidant of Jon the Stark, she gets nowhere fast. Really think Martin's telling us something--Rhaegar would have looked to someone he could trust. As you said above--someone who might actually be standing in the doorway when Dany thinks he's looking at her--an attendant and confidant. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: I think there is a reason that Howland pays so much attention to Ashara at the Tourney beyond any involvement with politics. AMEN! And to her dancing partners. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: Elia, Ashara and Lyanna are mothers to significant offspring in the story. So I'm guessing that their fathers are present as well. I'm not convinced that Aegon is a fake and if the vision in the HoU is true; then Rhaegar thinks he is the PwiP and would be invested in making sure that he survives. Agreed--though I'm thinking if Aegon got save, Elia might have been less than thrilled with Rhaegar for leaving Rhaenys in King's Landing. But then, I'm pretty sure Shireen is getting sacrificed by her family death cult (have been since the Prologue in Clash)--so, might the parallel to Rhaegar's cult even stronger. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: I take Barristan Selmy's observation that Dany look like a younger version of Ashera to be true. Yup! 2 hours ago, LynnS said: Where does this leave Jon? When Aemon talks about dreams but not the dreamer; this could be Rhaegar but I'd speculate that he went to Summerhall to seek out the Ghost of High Heart and trade songs for dreams. She is likely the wood's witch who made the original prophecy. I'm liking this songs for dreams idea. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: I think it's possible that he learned something about Lyanna from her; but she never names names; so it's likely that Rhaegar 'looked twice' at Lyanna for another reason. He recognized something about her; perhaps something the GoHH told him. Maybe--but we're going to need a LOT more to make this work. Though we do have Mel taking an unusual interest in Jon. . . . could be a potential parallel. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: I think it's relevant to note that Ned says that Rhaegar gave Lyanna the Queen of Beauty's Laurel. He doesn't call it the Queen of Love and Beauty's laurel. It's Barristan Selmy who makes that leap because of his feelings for Ashara. Rhaegar doesn't actually crown Lyanna; he places the laurel in her lap. I could take that to mean that the crown isn't meant for Lyanna but for the child she will hold in her lap. The Starks no longer have crowns but the crown of winter roses seems like a substitute for the crown of the king of winter. Interesting--do we have evidence the "crowner" aways puts the crown on the head of the "crownee?" Seems like putting it in her lap might be . . . practical. Still, if the symbolism holds--it could hold regardless of Rhaegar's intent, no? Could be more for the reader. Especially since I struggle to see that Rhaegar was able to control all of it--knowing his Dad would coming, knowing he would suddenly enter the tourney, knowing the crown would be blue roses, knowing the history tied to the Starks and Bael. . . not even the Starks know that story. . . seems like a lot. Not impossible, But a lot. 2 hours ago, LynnS said: So while I agree with all the reason why Rhaegar would safeguard Lyanna and her child, to be the hero of the story; I don't think he is Jon's father. There is no benefit to returning Lyanna to Robert or Ned with a bastard son by Rhaegar. It certainly wouldn't please Tywin who would see Lyanna as an obstacle either way. Agreed. I really think Rhaegar held her like Beric holds Arya. Or the Hound holds Arya--not to hurt her, but to use her for their own purposes. Beric, too, is driven by magic (literally). And Mance holds onto Jon-the-Stark-Maid (and after-maid) for political and tactical purposes. A VERY useful windfall--as Arya is to Beric and the Hound. But no--returning a hurt, pregnant Arya would get Beric nothing. Same with the Hound. And same with Rhaegar and Lyanna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melifeather Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 @slywren thanks for the shout out. I thought I'd drop by and let you know that I've expanded on some thoughts in a new essay that focuses on my suspicions that Robert was a willing participant in Tywin's plan. Let me know what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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