Cercei is walking into a trap ?

[Aedam Targaryen]

It seems like there's traps all around! The HS is trying to trap Cersei and the crown, Cersei is trying to trap the Tyrell's, and on top of that the Tyrell's will have their army escorted into the city, which would then allow them to put their own traps into play. Everyone involved seems to think that they have the upper hand... and I can't tell for the life of me who ACTUALLY has the upper hand!

[Lordsteve666]

15 minutes ago, Pies are coming said:

Jaime is later seen at Riverrun. Or he might be trying to copy Che Guevara and incite a peasant revolt (doesn't work IRL). 

My view on this is that its a reworking of the book plot involving him & Cersei. 

Basically I think the trap is sprung by HS or whomever and Cersei goes nuts and tries something uttery depraved and mad, Jaimie just decides there and then it's not worth it and leaves.
Then we see Cersei falling apart in KL whilst Jaimie is off saving the rest of the kingdom by trying out diplomacy as we see him doing so in ADWD. That could be an interesting touch I think.

Either way I don't think the Tyrells will be hanging around long, I have a feeling they are about to get "recalled" due to a nasty case of pirate marauding in the reach that needs dealing with. Imagine Cersei losing to the High Sparrow, and with Jaimie leaving as well and possibly Tommen getting killed as well. She'd probably go all "Aerys Targaryen" of KL and try to burn the place to the ground.

[House Cambodia]

^ That's exactly what I see happening. Last 5 minutes of ep 10 she burns KL with wildfire just as Dany swoops in on Drogon to claim the throne.

[TickTak7]

This feels like the path to Cersei's downfall, doesn't it? 

Driven by revenge without thinking a few steps ahead, like she normally does? 

If their plan succeeds, and the High Sparrow is killed, great. 

HOWEVER - Margaery is free and able to sink her claws into Tommen. 

The Tyrell army will be secure within King's Landing. 

Olenna Tyrell's position will be strengthened on the small council. 

What does that leave Cersei? A little bit of revenge against the High Sparrow, and then what? 

I'd argue she's in a better position now, before her trial, than she would be if this plot against the Faith Militant actually took place

[Rhoynar]

Let's keep in mind most soldiers in Westeros are peasants and revere the Faith and the High Septon. They fear but not necessarily like their lords. If they order them to break into the Holy Sept and kill the High Sparrow, they might turn against them.

The High Sparrow told/threatened Olenna last year: when the many stop fearing the few...

PS: during the Middle Ages, the Church and the Pope had a similar position. It was never good for a Lord to antagonise the Church.

[TickTak7]

51 minutes ago, Rhoynar said:

Let's keep in mind most soldiers in Westeros are peasants and revere the Faith and the High Septon. They fear but not necessarily like their lords. If they order them to break into the Holy Sept and kill the High Sparrow, they might turn against them.

The High Sparrow told/threatened Olenna last year: when the many stop fearing the few...

PS: during the Middle Ages, the Church and the Pope had a similar position. It was never good for a Lord to antagonise the Church.

Good point. 

Many people, including me, have completely overlooked the actual religious conflict here. 

Well said. 

[Viper Hound]

Any chance Cersei flips sides and helps the Faith Millitant destroy the Tyrells? Doesn't really help the situation in KL, but sure does remove a rival.

[MoonWoman]

I don't see what Cersei thinks she gains by trying to dispose of the Tyrells in the first place - her plotting to have HS take Margaery seemed so wacky. Tommen needs Margaery to produce an heir. That's how the game works - houses need other houses. Cersei cant seriously believe the Lannisters can exist and rule in isolation from other houses. Or maybe she does and this just shows what a loose cannon she is.

Can someone remind me - in the books, Cersei and Margaery got taken by the faith at the same time, no plotting on Cersei's part provoked it right? Its been awhile, I can't remember how that played out.

 

[jandslegate]

I don't think Tommen is going to die. I think he's going to abdicate the throne and join the faith. His betrayal by giving up rule would leave Cersei and the Lannisters utterly powerless and with plenty of enemies waiting in the wings. 

[jandslegate]

2 hours ago, MoonWoman said:

I don't see what Cersei thinks she gains by trying to dispose of the Tyrells in the first place - her plotting to have HS take Margaery seemed so wacky. Tommen needs Margaery to produce an heir. That's how the game works - houses need other houses. Cersei cant seriously believe the Lannisters can exist and rule in isolation from other houses. Or maybe she does and this just shows what a loose cannon she is.

Can someone remind me - in the books, Cersei and Margaery got taken by the faith at the same time, no plotting on Cersei's part provoked it right? Its been awhile, I can't remember how that played out.

 

 

Cersei's plotting absolutely provoked it. It worked in that Margaery was imprisoned but it backfired when the HS decided to lock her up too. It seemed (to me, at least) that the HS had Cersei in his sights from the beginning, though. 

[Vastet]

I agree with the OP. There's no reason to let Tommen know that Margery is about to take her walk unless he expects Tommen to spill the beans. I think it's going to be a very messy day.

[Pies are coming]

2 hours ago, MoonWoman said:

I don't see what Cersei thinks she gains by trying to dispose of the Tyrells in the first place - her plotting to have HS take Margaery seemed so wacky. Tommen needs Margaery to produce an heir. That's how the game works - houses need other houses. Cersei cant seriously believe the Lannisters can exist and rule in isolation from other houses. Or maybe she does and this just shows what a loose cannon she is

 

Yep, she actually believes the Lannisters should rule alone. In the books Tyrion calls her on this, telling her if she expects Joffrey to marry Myrcella or something.

There is a reason why Tywin thought Cersei wasn't as smart as she believed herself to be.

[Masha]

10 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

I completely agree. I like the HS - I want him to outsmart the bitch.

The way Marge was talking, it looks like she's decided that the only escape for her and her brother is to 'repent of their sins' and join the Faith Militant. That will take the wind out of the sails of the forces led by Jaime to liberate them, but it will also mean Marge giving up her marriage to Tommy, and no hope of a Tyrell heir.

I can see this leading to a humungous barney between Cercei and Olenna, because there needs to be an implosion in the KL power-struggle now that I think Dany is gathering her forces to take it.

I don't think Marge will give up her marriage to Tommen, but she will go pious - in grey robes and such. its not his way.  

HS tried to play Tommen card with Marge. Cersei was so desperate to see her son, she agreed to do everything he asked. When Marge kept asking for her brother, HS went - don't you want to see your husband? He was obviously trying to get her going like he did Cersei, only she didn't bite.

Also, HS knows that Marge is loved by poor because of her charity works - even if it was just to win popularity contest, so to punish a relatively innocent girl who has done nothing other than being loyal to her brother. While whole population of KL hates Lannisters and especially Cersei, it won't work with Marge (other with the very crude and criminal element).

So when Tyrell army with Jaime at top will come up to demand Marge, she will basically say to them - go away, I don't need your help, I am siding with HS. That will make Jaime fall flat on his face, and Tyrells take control of KL as they wait for Marge.  Then pissed off Cersei will send Jaime to riverlands.

[Forlong the Fat]

3 hours ago, MoonWoman said:

I don't see what Cersei thinks she gains by trying to dispose of the Tyrells in the first place - her plotting to have HS take Margaery seemed so wacky. Tommen needs Margaery to produce an heir. That's how the game works - houses need other houses. Cersei cant seriously believe the Lannisters can exist and rule in isolation from other houses. Or maybe she does and this just shows what a loose cannon she is.

Can someone remind me - in the books, Cersei and Margaery got taken by the faith at the same time, no plotting on Cersei's part provoked it right? Its been awhile, I can't remember how that played out.

 

It was 100% Cersei's plotting in the book.  She sent one of the Kettleblack brothers to sleep with her and testify against her.

Book Cersei is 100% driven by the idea that she should be in charge, and specifically that she should be the queen--not Margery.  Show Cersei has been portrayed a bit more sympathetically.

[Masha]

 

8 minutes ago, Forlong the Fat said:

It was 100% Cersei's plotting in the book.  She sent one of the Kettleblack brothers to sleep with her and testify against her.

Book Cersei is 100% driven by the idea that she should be in charge, and specifically that she should be the queen--not Margery.  Show Cersei has been portrayed a bit more sympathetically.

In the books, I read it that Cersei just got paranoid and crazy and prescribing to Marge most of her sins. Like being close to her brother = incestuous relationship, gifting kittens to Tommen = stealing Tommen. Then she basically plotted to make up a crime and then accuse Margaery in it.

In the shows, Marge is opening antagonistic to Cersei, she keeps needling her - first with Joffrey then with Tommen. Margaery is actively  trying to usurp Cersei's power here - as she and her grandmother keep telling Cersei that "she is not the queen". Then Cersei uses the known fact to catch Loras in order to get her revenge to Tyrells and Marge sort of gets caught in it. Cersei looked genuinely surprised that HS arrested Marge (pleased but surprised)

 

 

[MoonWoman]

1 minute ago, Forlong the Fat said:

It was 100% Cersei's plotting in the book.  She sent one of the Kettleblack brothers to sleep with her and testify against her.

Book Cersei is 100% driven by the idea that she should be in charge, and specifically that she should be the queen--not Margery.  Show Cersei has been portrayed a bit more sympathetically.

Ah yes, now I remember the Kettleblacks, etc. And I agree, book Cersei seemed much more unhinged and power hungry (and crazy drunk I recall) 

The fact that HS most likely knew Tommen would tell Cersei suggests a planned trap, but whether it ends up being a trap, I'm not sure.

[jandslegate]

Just now, MoonWoman said:

Ah yes, now I remember the Kettleblacks, etc. And I agree, book Cersei seemed much more unhinged and power hungry (and crazy drunk I recall) 

The fact that HS most likely knew Tommen would tell Cersei suggests a planned trap, but whether it ends up being a trap, I'm not sure.

 

Yeah, I also think the Tyrells are in on the impending trap. 

[MoonWoman]

Just now, jandslegate said:

Yeah, I also think the Tyrells are in on the impending trap. 

Now that would be interesting!

[jandslegate]

I mean if you think about it, the Faith Militant wouldn't really be able to stand up against an armed Lannister force. Granted, assaulting them would be bad PR for the Lannisters but what do they care? It would take a larger armed host to seize them. Or, I suppose Tommen could turn on his own family and order them captured.

[Florina Laufeyson]

Im actually unsure whats happening here and whats gonna happen here, but its hella interesting. The trails though, the Faith is still gonna do that, and name champions...