What's going on with the Glovers?

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Protagoras said:

In general, just because two people conspire against the same target doesn´t mean they work together or are even aware of the other´s scheming. For me, this is where GNC fail for me - the coordination. This is not the age of cell phones and no one wants to be exposed so they hide their plans even for possible friends in order to stay safe. 

I don´t think Howland, Maege and Robett are aware Wyman is up to something. And vice versa

This. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

If all this is as you say - why are they even scheming? If every lord is in on it, has coordinated and want to do something about it, why not, after Tywins death and the chaos in the south, raise your troops officially and beat the Boltons up. The rest of the lords should have numbers at least twice, most likely trice or more then them. Why care about hostages - people die, after all - just mobilize and kick the shit out of the fucking Boltons.

No, this conspiracy must lack coordination and participants. Not all lords can be in on it. Many, like Lady Dustin, is on the fence or have gotten their previous lords killed - which means we have a internal struggle in many northern houses (suddenly, you could be leader of your house and only thing you need to do is to like the opposite faction - Bolton/Stark than your opponent). I think the Stark dislike and the Bolton support in the North is higher than this forum think and that Lady Dustin was written in to represent those that resent the Starks, but at the same time are nervous about the current events (and of course hates the Freys and dislikes Ramsay).

I think this struggle will be far more even, painful and bloody. If GNC is true, this will be over very quickly. Which makes the best literature?

Oh I agree that there are various levels of commitment, torn loyalties, communication difficulties and other complications. That is part of the reason for the delay, and the biding of time.

But we have to remember that as with a lot of the timing in this series, Martin has to delay things to culminate in a climax at the right time. There are other plot developments that need to take place first, for his story to have maximum effect.

Also, consider that not that much time has passed since Storm of Swords. Feast and Dance covered a lot of the same time period. And I disagree that the hostages could just be sacrificed. Manderly clearly was not willing to even consider that. Look at the gravity with which he tells Davos; " My son is back, and the mummer's farce is almost over".

I think Manderly was absolutely key to the loyalist conspiracy. And he was unwilling to move until he had his son back. Similarly the Greatjon and others are likely key too. Probably a requirement for the Umbers to commit to one side or another. The Flints, Slates and Lockes take their lead from Wyman Manderly, and while he was biding his time, so would they.

And there was still the Ironborn threat to deal with in the west. Why fight Bolton, if you needed him to deal with that threat first. Especially if he had the Iron Throne's support. No to mention Stannis arriving in the mix to confuse things even further.

But all of that is soon to be in the past now. It is all coming together. You cannot imagine that Martin had Gallbart and Maege in hiding for so long, and kept the Greatjon alive for all this time, only for there not to be some major payoff for that delay soon.

[Protagoras]

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Oh I agree that there are various levels of comittment, torn loyalties, communication difficulties and other complications. That is part of the reason for the delay, and the biding of time.

But we have to remember that as with a lot of the timing in this series, Martin has to delay things to culminate in a climax at the right time. There are other plot developments that need to take place first, for his story to have maximum effect.

Also, consider that not that much time has passed since Storm of Swords. Feast and Dance covered a lot of the same time period. And I disagree that the hostages could just be sacrificed. Manderly clearly was not willing to even consider that. Look at the gravity with which he tells Davos; " My son is back, and the mummer's farce is almost over".

I think Manderly was absolutely key to the loyalist conspiracy. And he was unwilling to move until he had his son back. Similarly the Greatjon and others are likely key too. Probably a requirement for the Umbers to commit to one side or another. The Flints, Slates and Lockes take their lead from Wyman Manderly, and while he was biding his time, so would they.

And there was still the Ironborn threat to deal with in the west. Why fight Bolton, if you needed him to deal with that threat first. Especially if he had the Iron Throne's support. No to mention Stannis arriving in the mix to confuse things even further.

But alll of that is soon to be in the past now. It is all coming together. You cannot imagine that Martin had Gallbart and Maege in hiding for so long, and kept the Greatjon alive for all this time, only for there not to be some major payoff for that delay soon.

Ok, a counter-suggestion. Say that Wyman is unable to do something before he gets his son back. But then he do get him back. Instead of going to Winterfell with the pies, he officially declares war, executes the Freys in public and sends out his ravens, contacting every loyalist he knows. The loyalist converge and cut a deal with Stannis (or ignore him and march on). They defeat the Boltons. Game over. If I was a northern lord I would be going for this - "We don´t need Stannis to fight our battles, this is a northern matter - Stannis can deal with the ironborn and acknowledge what we are doing and we will wish him luck in your fights in the south. Hell, we might even give some few dozens of solders if he acts nice".

In short, this all feels very cowardly if you have the coordination. The North isn´t THAT bled and the last Ironborn strongholds are abandoned so it should be pretty easy combats for those say 10000 soldiers who might be left when the Boltons are dust.

Since we agree on the torn loyalites and different commitments - isn´t it more likely that the conspirators are few, act alone without coordination and simply hope when they rise - others will join? Wyman isn´t doing this because of the coordination - he is doing this because of his troops, because he doesn´t care if he dies and because he hopes more northerners will join him - since he is uncertain on the other houses position (apart from Glover, maybe Mormont and those that follow his lead).

And of course there will be a pay-off. Not just the pay-off you are hoping for. Again - with the forces and the coordination and the influence even amongst people like Lady Dustin, this should be a 15 minute-job. And there is no way GRRM will make it that easy.

[Free Northman Reborn]

8 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Ok, a counter-suggestion. Say that Wyman is unable to do something before he gets his son back. But then he do get him back. Instead of going to Winterfell with the pies, he officially declares war, executes the Freys in public and sends out his ravens, contacting every loyalist he knows. The loyalist converge and cut a deal with Stannis (or ignore him and march on). They defeat the Boltons. Game over. If I was a northern lord I would be going for this - "We don´t need Stannis to fight our battles, this is a northern matter - Stannis can deal with the ironborn and acknowledge what we are doing and we will wish him luck in your fights in the south. Hell, we might even give some few dozens of solders if he acts nice".

In short, this all feels very cowardly if you have the coordination. The North isn´t THAT bled and the last Ironborn strongholds are abandoned so it should be pretty easy combats for those say 10000 soldiers who might be left when the Boltons are dust.

Since we agree on the torn loyalites and different commitments - isn´t it more likely that the conspirators are few, act alone without coordination and simply hope when they rise - others will join? Wyman isn´t doing this because of the coordination - he is doing this because of his troops, because he doesn´t care if he dies and because he hopes more northerners will join him - since he is uncertain on the other houses position (apart from Glover, maybe Mormont and those that follow his lead).

And of course there will be a pay-off. Not just the pay-off you are hoping for. Again - with the forces and the coordination and the influence even amongst people like Lady Dustin, this should be a 15 minute-job. And there is no way GRRM will make it that easy.

But if Jon is the heir named in Robb' will, then declaring for him at that point is foolish, considering he is in Stannis's power at the Wall. Nice going, getting your King made a hostage the moment you declare for him. Nevermind that you haven't even consulted with him yet about it all.

At the same time, the Umbers cannot commit while the Greatjon is captive at the Twins. The Dustins and Ryswells are likely sitting on the fence, waiting to see which way things are going to go. And most importantly, the Boltons still have the nominal support of the Lannisters. News of the Lannister implosion in King's Landing is only reaching the North in bits and pieces.

For all Manderly knows, a Royal Fleet of 200 warships could arrive in White Harbor if he marches on Winterfell. For him to move against the Lannister supported Warden of the North, he needs to be sure that he has a united North with him. It is not just Bolton's 4000 Dreadfort troops he could be facing. The situation is a lot more complicated than that.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

About a year and a half ago, I asked a similar question focused on House Mormont. I cannot imagine Mage and Galbart's are chillin' in the Neck. 

A couple of weeks before arriving at the Twins for the Red Wedding, Robb dispatched Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover with a detachment of troops to Greywater Watch to prepare an assault on the Ironborn at Moat Cailin with Howland Reed. Maege and Galbert knew of Robb's desire to disinherit Sansa, legitimize Jon as the natural son of Eddard, and name Jon as his heir, believing that Bran, Rickon, and Arya were dead. 

Eleven years after Storm, The George finally gave his readers a hint as to what was going on northwest of Winterfell...

Quote

 

Jon took a knee. The king frowned at him, and rattled the parchment angrily. "Rise. Tell me, who is Lyanna Mormont?"

"One of Lady Maege's daughters, Sire. The youngest. She was named for my lord fathers sister."

"To curry your lord fathers favor, I dont doubt. I know how that game is played. How old is this wretched girl child?"

Jon had to think a moment. "Ten. Or near enough to make no matter. Might I know how she has offended Your Grace?"

Stannis read from the letter. "'Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK.' A girl of ten, you say, and she presumes to scold her lawful king." His close-cropped beard lay like a shadow over his hollow cheeks. "See that you keep these tidings to yourself, Lord Snow. Karhold is with me, that is all the men need know. I will not have your brothers trading tales of how this child spat on me."

"As you command, Sire." Maege Mormont had ridden south with Robb, Jon knew. Her eldest daughter had joined the Young Wolf's host as well. Even if both of them had died, however, Lady Maege had other daughters, some with children of their own. Had they gone with Robb as well? Surely Lady Maege would have left at least one of the older girls behind as castellan. He did not understand why Lyanna should be writing Stannis, and could not help but wonder if the girl's answer might have been different if the letter had been sealed with a direwolf instead of a crowned stag, and signed by Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell. It is too late for such misgivings. You made your choice.

 

Jon I, Dance

We know that Dacey, Lyra, and Jorelle went south with Maege and the Young Wolf, and The George suggests to us that Maege left Alysane as castellan when she marched south, and we find out later that Alysane joined Stannis after burning Asha's ships at Deepwood Motte, and that Lyra and Jorelle are still with Maege.

Did Maege return to Bear Island clandestinely, or at least send a bird, or did Alysane act on her own?

If Maege did not return, how did Lyanna know that a STARK was the King in the North? (Bran and Rickon were presumed dead.)

If Maege returned to give Alysane the order to burn Asha's ships, did she then leave again with Lyra and Jorelle leaving Lyanna at Bear Island? Or did Maege perhaps remain at Bear Island with Lyra and Jorelle? 

And where is Galbert Glover? Again through Jon, the George suggests that he should have gone with Maege to free Deepwood Motte...

Quote

"But my father's bannermen have wives and children to protect," ...

Jon I, Dance

Galbert is not wed, but his brother's wife and children were captured when Asha seized Deepwood Motte. 

But if Maege and Galbart did go to Bear Island/and or Deepwood Motte, where are they now, and what are they doing? 

[estermonty python]

8 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Ok, a counter-suggestion. Say that Wyman is unable to do something before he gets his son back. But then he do get him back. Instead of going to Winterfell with the pies, he officially declares war, executes the Freys in public and sends out his ravens, contacting every loyalist he knows. The loyalist converge and cut a deal with Stannis (or ignore him and march on). They defeat the Boltons. Game over. If I was a northern lord I would be going for this - "We don´t need Stannis to fight our battles, this is a northern matter - Stannis can deal with the ironborn and acknowledge what we are doing and we will wish him luck in your fights in the south. Hell, we might even give some few dozens of solders if he acts nice".

In short, this all feels very cowardly if you have the coordination. The North isn´t THAT bled and the last Ironborn strongholds are abandoned so it should be pretty easy combats for those say 10000 soldiers who might be left when the Boltons are dust.

Since we agree on the torn loyalites and different commitments - isn´t it more likely that the conspirators are few, act alone without coordination and simply hope when they rise - others will join? Wyman isn´t doing this because of the coordination - he is doing this because of his troops, because he doesn´t care if he dies and because he hopes more northerners will join him - since he is uncertain on the other houses position (apart from Glover, maybe Mormont and those that follow his lead).

And of course there will be a pay-off. Not just the pay-off you are hoping for. Again - with the forces and the coordination and the influence even amongst people like Lady Dustin, this should be a 15 minute-job. And there is no way GRRM will make it that easy.

The two immediate flaws in this alternate reality are 1) it assumes the North exists in a vacuum, and doesn't take into account the combined Lannister/Tyrell army, to say nothing of the Freys and the rest of the strength of the Riverlords who Jaime has forced back into the fold, who would descend upon White Harbor immediately; and 2) it lacks any motivation beyond "fuck the Freys and the Boltons."  Essentially this would assume all of White Harbor acts like Raynald Westerling, except on a grand scale.  It just doesn't make sense.  They'd just be restarting the War of the Five Kings, except this time they've lost the Riverlands, the BOltons, any Bolton loyalists (aka those who follow strength), and all of the opposing armies, including the Ironborn and Stannis, are already on their turf.  They're all smarter than that. 

[Protagoras]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For all Manderly knows, a Royal Fleet of 200 warships could arrive in White Harbor if he marches on Winterfell. For him to move against the Lannister supported Warden of the North, he needs to be sure that he has a united North with him. It is not just Bolton's 4000 Dreadfort troops he could be facing. The situation is a lot more complicated than that.

 

Yeah, but we as readers know this won´t happen. Right now the Bolton-ousting looks like a pretty likely thing. To this you want to add high coordination and a plan that somehow involves many people without a single word getting out. Sounds very unlikely.

And who cares what Jon thinks. This fight is bigger than him and the plan could work with Rickon as a back-up. Even if his name is on that will, he shouldn´t be consulted. Why even declare for him? Beat the Boltons up and then offer him the kingship. If he refuses - install Rickon. Why even give that away at this stage?

Again - all this will make the fights with the Boltons easy. Do you really think it will be that easy?

9 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

The two immediate flaws in this alternate reality are 1) it assumes the North exists in a vacuum, and doesn't take into account the combined Lannister/Tyrell army, to say nothing of the Freys and the rest of the strength of the Riverlords who Jaime has forced back into the fold, who would descend upon White Harbor immediately; and 2) it lacks any motivation beyond "fuck the Freys and the Boltons."  Essentially this would assume all of White Harbor acts like Raynald Westerling, except on a grand scale.  It just doesn't make sense.  They'd just be restarting the War of the Five Kings, except this time they've lost the Riverlands, the BOltons, any Bolton loyalists (aka those who follow strength), and all of the opposing armies, including the Ironborn and Stannis, are already on their turf.  They're all smarter than that. 

I don´t see the issue.

They have already lost Riverlands and the Boltons. Stannis can be worked with in theory and he is too weak anyway to really matter (remember, his troop boost came from the clans and after the re-taking of Deepwood motte - troops he won´t have in this scenario). And yes - fuck the Freys and Boltons is pretty much the only thing I believe those groups 100% agree on.

And if the North get the news then they should also get the news from King´s landing as well as news from Eurons attack on the Reach. They are not restarting anything since no army south will have the possibility to attack them for a long while.

[Free Northman Reborn]

22 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Yeah, but we as readers know this won´t happen. Right now the Bolton-ousting looks like a pretty likely thing. To this you want to add high coordination and a plan that somehow involves many people without a single word getting out. Sounds very unlikely.

And who cares what Jon thinks. This fight is bigger than him and the plan could work with Rickon as a back-up. Even if his name is on that will, he shouldn´t be consulted. Why even declare for him? Beat the Boltons up and then offer him the kingship. If he refuses - install Rickon. Why even give that away at this stage?

Again - all this will make the fights with the Boltons easy. Do you really think it will be that easy?

I don´t see the issue.

They have already lost Riverlands and the Boltons. Stannis can be worked with in theory and he is too weak anyway to really matter (remember, his troop boost came from the clans and after the re-taking of Deepwood motte - troops he won´t have in this scenario). And yes - fuck the Freys and Boltons is pretty much the only thing I believe those groups 100% agree on.

And if the North get the news then they should also get the news from King´s landing as well as news from Eurons attack on the Reach. They are not restarting anything since no army south will have the possibility to attack them for a long while.

I think the Northern Lords are rational actors, rather than "F*ck em, let's go kills some Boltons and screw the consequences" cardboard cutouts. The Mountain Clans may be an exception, but I suspect that even they are acting with a larger motive, hidden as simple bloodlust to kill some Boltons.

As to who the key conspirators are and who knows the contents of the will? The Glovers and Mormonts for sure. And with Robett Glover being shown in cahoots with Manderly, I suspect Manderly is in on it as well. The Mormonts live very close to the Mountain Clans, and I suspect the Clan chiefs are in on it as well.

Hother and Mors Umber? I suspect they don't know all the details, but are aware that there is resistance to the Boltons and they need to play both sides for the time being.

Lady Dustin is a mystery to me. Either she is fully aware of what is going on and is working against Bolton from the inside, or else she is out of the loop for the time being, but is a pragmatist who, like the Umbers, are waiting to see how things turn out. And the Ryswells will apparently follow her lead.

And yes, maybe the rumours of Rickon and Bran's initial survival are causing some like the Mountain Clans and the Manderlys to keep alternative options open, should Jon not prove suitable. But bear in mind that there is no guarantee that Rickon or Bran is still alive, even if they survived Theon's initial conquest of Winterfell. So it is likely just prudent to keep as many Stark options available as possible.

But I suspect that events will climax in the first half of the next book, to bring it all together. And yes, to answer your question. I do think the victory over the Boltons is going to be fairly easy. Because unlike the Show, they are not these invincible villains in the books. They are just opportunists, who backed a losing horse, and are now living on borrowed time.

And ultimately, I don't believe that Martin intends to bleed the North further, after the losses they have already suffered in the South. Instead, I believe he is moving into a phase where the South is about to be bled to come down to a similar footing as the North, comparatively speaking. This is not a story of the North being utterly devestated while the South comes in to save the day in the final war against the Others.

Instead, it is a story of the entire Westeros being weakened more or less equally. The Starks will be on an equal footing to other Great Houses, when the grand alliance against the Others need to be forged. And for that, the Starks need to stop bleeding men, and regain power, while the South needs to bleed a lot in the next book. Which is exactly what is set up to happen.

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But I suspect that events will climax in the first half of the next book, to bring it all together. And yes, to answer your question. I do think the victory over the Boltons is going to be fairly easy. Because unlike the Show, they are not these invincible villains in the books. They are just opportunists, who backed a losing horse, and are now living on borrowed time.

And ultimately, I don't believe that Martin intends to bleed the North further, after the losses they have already suffered in the South. Instead, I believe he is moving into a phase where the South is about to be bled to come down to a similar footing as the North, comparatively speaking. This is not a story of the North being utterly devestated while the South comes in to save the day in the final war against the Others.

Instead, it is a story of the entire Westeros being weakened more or less equally. The Starks will be on an equal footing to other Great Houses, when the grand alliance against the Others need to be forged. And for that, the Starks need to stop bleeding men, and regain power, while the South needs to bleed a lot in the next book. Which is exactly what is set up to happen.

Yeah, this was what I was afraid of - we are seeing and reading a completely different book series.

Yours have the approach of a more classical fantasy with an overbearing arch, heroes joining together, grand alliances, people joining behind Jon etc, etc, etc. Ned and Robb was just early losses in order to raise the stakes and now the heroes will join together, beat their foes and live happily ever after (Ok, maybe you don´t believe all this - but you get my picture).

I don´t believe this is what you will get in the future. Instead you will see more blood, more suffering, less heroics and a bittersweet ending slightly more positive than Romeo and Juliet. There won´t be any true heroes - there will be duality, soulsearching and the struggle with yourself, there will be complications, there will be big setbacks for the good guys. The Boltons will get support, there will be disunity among their foes and the victory will be very costly. Characters you love will die and yes - the assistance from the south will come (most likely from the Vale), but not in a finishing heroic way, but with more tragedy and backstabbing. Jon himself will struggle and become darker and darker - but so will most characters, especially those we love.

I think the only thing we can do here is to wait for the next book in order to see whose future is more accurate. I think your take on this simply doesn´t fit with GRRMs style - especially since he have criticized these types of books in the past, but you wouldn´t write what you wrote unless you where convinced so I guess there is not much more for me to say. Our visions doesn´t converge.

 

[MtnLion]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

1) it assumes the North exists in a vacuum, and doesn't take into account the combined Lannister/Tyrell army, to say nothing of the Freys and the rest of the strength of the Riverlords who Jaime has forced back into the fold, who would descend upon White Harbor immediately

Ned told us the value of Moat Cailin and archers guarding passage to the north against any army.  Much like the Bloody Gate, there is a history to it, I suspect.  Lannister, Tyrell, Frey and the Riverlands armies are all south of the Neck, and need to travers Moat Cailin to do anything in the north to rescue the Boltons, if they want to (I believe that it is unlikely that anyone will want to). 

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

2) it lacks any motivation beyond "fuck the Freys and the Boltons."  Essentially this would assume all of White Harbor acts like Raynald Westerling, except on a grand scale.  It just doesn't make sense.  They'd just be restarting the War of the Five Kings, except this time they've lost the Riverlands, the BOltons, any Bolton loyalists (aka those who follow strength), and all of the opposing armies, including the Ironborn and Stannis, are already on their turf.

The Riverlands are outside of consideration, because they are outside of the north.  The Boltons are the enemy, true enough.  The Ironborn have been driven off, at least in the north.  In the south they are making themselves a pain in the arse.  Stannis is nearly dead.  His only true support against Starks would be Karstarks, but Jon won points with Alys, remember, and she is the heir.  But, add in that Stannis uncovered the Karstark treachery, and is punishing them.  Only the men that Stannis brought north with him would support him against the Stark King, and those presently are very, very few. 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Protagoras said:

Yeah, this was what I was afraid of - we are seeing and reading a completely different book series.

Yours have the approach of a more classical fantasy with an overbearing arch, heroes joining together, grand alliances, people joining behind Jon etc, etc, etc. Ned and Robb was just early losses in order to raise the stakes and now the heroes will join together, beat their foes and live happily ever after (Ok, maybe you don´t believe all this - but you get my picture).

I don´t believe this is what you will get in the future. Instead you will see more blood, more suffering, less heroics and a bittersweet ending slightly more positive than Romeo and Juliet. There won´t be any true heroes - there will be duality, soulsearching and the struggle with yourself, there will be complications, there will be big setbacks for the good guys. The Boltons will get support, there will be disunity among their foes and the victory will be very costly. Characters you love will die and yes - the assistance from the south will come (most likely from the Vale), but not in a finishing heroic way, but with more tragedy and backstabbing. Jon himself will struggle and become darker and darker - but so will most characters, especially those we love.

I think the only thing we can do here is to wait for the next book in order to see whose future is more accurate. I think your take on this simply doesn´t fit with GRRMs style - especially since he have criticized these types of books in the past, but you wouldn´t write what you wrote unless you where convinced so I guess there is not much more for me to say. Our visions doesn´t converge.

 

This could just as easily have been a post agreeing with everything Free Northman Reborn said but that's not as interesting, so I'll just respectfully challenge a couple of your points instead :-)

I think GRRM is more of a romantic than he's given credit for.  He's not a nihilist; he just likes to surprise, he likes all his characters to have shades of gray, and he likes for his victories to be earned.  He doesn't dislike the outcome of LOTR; he speaks of Tolkein in glowing terms.  His objections are 1) the bad guys are bad just bc they are bad, and ugly to boot; and 2) what it means to "rule wisely" at the end, i.e., the "yada yada"ing of the practical details.  Each one of these characters - good and bad - are flawed.  I think the "realism" that will be injected into this plot are things like the "good guys" being self-interested (like the Manderlys), other "good guys" simply following strength at any cost (like the Dustins/Ryswells), and just generally needing to offer people things in order to get them to help you, rather than relying on blind loyalty.  I'm a big believer in the rebellion against the Boltons at the first opportunity, and part of the reason is that the Boltons being in charge isn't interesting, and the Bolton's winning or losing isn't interesting, but the Northern rebels deposing the Boltons and then trying to figure out which Stark to support is VERY interesting.  Some could want to honor Robb's will and support Jon.  Others could want to support Rickon.  Some may want to put "Arya" back in Winterfell.  It's possible that the Liddle who helped Bran has told the other mountain clans than Bran is still alive and in hiding, and the mountain clans could support Bran instead.  It's a whole other fascinating, fruitful path, with the Stark children as unwitting pawns in a game they have no interest in being a part of. 

[LordPathera]

2 hours ago, estermonty python said:

This could just as easily have been a post agreeing with everything Free Northman Reborn said but that's not as interesting, so I'll just respectfully challenge a couple of your points instead :-)

I think GRRM is more of a romantic than he's given credit for.  He's not a nihilist; he just likes to surprise, he likes all his characters to have shades of gray, and he likes for his victories to be earned.  He doesn't dislike the outcome of LOTR; he speaks of Tolkein in glowing terms.  His objections are 1) the bad guys are bad just bc they are bad, and ugly to boot; and 2) what it means to "rule wisely" at the end, i.e., the "yada yada"ing of the practical details.  Each one of these characters - good and bad - are flawed.  I think the "realism" that will be injected into this plot are things like the "good guys" being self-interested (like the Manderlys), other "good guys" simply following strength at any cost (like the Dustins/Ryswells), and just generally needing to offer people things in order to get them to help you, rather than relying on blind loyalty.  I'm a big believer in the rebellion against the Boltons at the first opportunity, and part of the reason is that the Boltons being in charge isn't interesting, and the Bolton's winning or losing isn't interesting, but the Northern rebels deposing the Boltons and then trying to figure out which Stark to support is VERY interesting.  Some could want to honor Robb's will and support Jon.  Others could want to support Rickon.  Some may want to put "Arya" back in Winterfell.  It's possible that the Liddle who helped Bran has told the other mountain clans than Bran is still alive and in hiding, and the mountain clans could support Bran instead.  It's a whole other fascinating, fruitful path, with the Stark children as unwitting pawns in a game they have no interest in being a part of. 

It also serves a much needed counterpoint in a story over-saturated with pessimism and cruelty.

"The North Remembers" symbolizes that the people of the North not only remember their loyalty to lieges who treated them with honor, dignity and protected them from foreign and domestic threats, but also that they remember the treachery and crimes which their usurpers and their friends inflicted on them.

It's a narrative balancing act. The first three books demonstrate how being overly good, noble, trusting and honorable won't win you the game of thrones. So it makes sense that the next three books demonstrate how being overly cruel, evil, treacherous and selfish won't win you any favors either. It's both cathartic and authentic for the Boltons to be thrown down by the very vassals and people whom they pissed off. Why? Because the Starks were honest and decent liege-lords and the North honors that memory.

I mean has anyone done a head-count of how many houses the Boltons, Freys and Lannisters pissed off? Of course many of these houses are going to tear them apart as soon as an opportune moment appears. Even Roose admits that he's uncertain of the loyalty of the North houses who've supposedly bent their knees to him.

Keep in mind also that the Northerners are the only ones in-story who crowned their own king after getting fed up with the South and its nonsense. It makes way more sense for them to resist the traitors and tear them apart rather than meekly accept the murder of their fellow countrymen in the worst act of betrayal and dishonor ever witnessed Westeros.

Therefore, the GNC is very plausible to me or something equivalent to it where the North is working to purge the filth at the top and restore the rightful Kings in the North to Winterfell. Will it work? That can go either way and I'll admit, I'm hoping for the Bolton's to crash and burn. (As interesting of antagonists as they are, Valar Morgulis)

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yes, the last two posts say it well.

Martin is no Abercrombie. His aim is not woe and devastation for the sake of it. Instead, he uses hardship and suffering to make you care more about the characters, and to make you realise the stakes are high.

It is clear that the deaths of Ned, Robb, Catelyn etc served as literary devices to raise the stakes. Jon, Bran, Arya etc were always going to make it to the end game. We know the Starks will rise again, we are just debating how.

George did not even want to make it happen in an unsatisfying way such as Jon just accepting Winterfell from Stannis. No, the payoff is meant to happen more cathartically than that.

Of course the realism and compexity of the characters will continue, and of course every victory will still come at a price.

But at its heart this is still a pretty traditional fantasy story, just written with more realistic characters and with real stakes at play for the protagonists.

Kids live happily. Tragedy strikes. Kids get scattered and their home destroyed. Kids go into training to become a war leader, master assassin, magician and Machiavellian politician. (Thats where we are now).

Kids come back and their House gets restored. Kids pay the price for achieving this. Some emotionally, some physically. Some die at the end. Bittersweet. Think Frodo at the end of LotR.

All of this on the backdrop of a war to save humanity, terrible tragedies and realistic character depictions for both pro- and antagonists.

All of which makes you care even more about the characters.

Great story.

 

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn & in general:

I think there is no real debate about the question of an eventual 'Stark restoration'. That seems to be set. Just as there will be a Targaryen restoration of some sort.

However, there is no reason to believe that this will go your way. Meaning that a Stark (or Targaryen) restoration (of the final monarch on the Iron Throne) will or has to happen before the Others crisis finally gains momentum. In fact, I see it more likely that whoever ends up in charge of Winterfell/the North or KL before the grand finale is pretty much destined to lose it again - simply because a lot of people are most likely destined to die during the grand finale.

If we imagine a Stark restoration of some sort right now - meaning the next books, unknowing how many books this series will actually have in the end - then we'll actually have to imagine 'magical shields' and (perhaps not very convincing) plot devices as to why those Stark remain in charge in the middle of the War for the Dawn. This is most likely going to be the most devastating conflict in the entire series, with the most casualties and the greatest suffering. I don't see Rickon or Sansa playing any major roles in any of that. They can be figureheads in a political war, but neither of them would work as a figurehead to unite the Realm (or the North) against the Others.

Nobody doubts that the Stark POVs will play important and crucial roles in the remainder of the series. But this does not have to take the shape of the kind of restoration and revenge story you seem to want to read. Especially not the 'Northern independence' part. If something is dead and gone then it is the idea of an independent kingdom of the North and the Riverlands. This was always a foolish idea and the main (if not not only) reason for Robb's downfall.

Such a scenario would only make sense if George didn't have other important main protagonists introduced (Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow) either of which might end up uniting the Realm under a new Targaryen dynasty. Characters whose story arcs are among the most essential of the story insofar as the connected political developments are concerned.

We do not get the impression that a united rule is bad at all, nor has the concept of a central authority been targeted or weakened throughout the series. If the common interpretation of the vision of the dwarfs raping the girl in the House of the Undying is correct then all of the Five Kings were false kings who made Dany's kingdom bleed and it is her destiny/mission to end that. In addition, we see the Stark soldiers also painted in a bad light through the eyes of some of the Riverlands smallfolk as well as the eyes of the Brotherhood without Banners. The fact that Beric and company don't see only the Lannisters as evil but all the warring factions is a telltale sign in that direction.

And cutting down Jon Snow to the size of a champion for House Stark doesn't work, either, in my opinion. The man has long realized what his true mission is and is not going to fulfill it playing the secessionist card again. Assuming he is playing any cards at all in the near future.

And the idea of a 'Grand Northern Conspiracy' isn't really supported by the text. The concept only works if you pretty much assert that many characters lie about their true intentions and that what they actually mean - really mean - is not even hinted. Say, I accept that Lady Dustin has a complicated relationship with the Starks and actually wanted to be loved by them but Rickard prevented that, and later on Ned's war robbed her of her husband. The idea that she is not bitter about that is just ridiculous. Assuming that such a noblewoman is only feigning her anti-Stark resentment to get close to Roose - or that she is bitter but not so bitter as to turn on the Starks - is just wishful-thinking in my opinion. I mean, she publicly boasts that she did sent as few men to Robb as she dared. Roose would know whether this is true or not. He commanded a large chunk of the Stark host for most of the war. If it is true then this fact alone is proof enough for me that Lady Dustin has grown to hate the Starks and wanted Robb's campaign to fail.

Or take Wyman Manderly. The man (and the other members of his house) are universally perceived as weak and cowardly. Even in the North. People look down on him with contempt. This is not just a ruse on Wyman's part it is really as he is seen by many Northmen (and other Westerosi). Nobody would approach such a guy with some grand plan to defy their new liege lord. Not to mention that they would be clearly right not to do this. Wyman Manderly first thinks about himself, his family, and his city before taking other things into account. How long did he know that Rickon Stark was on Skagos? Weeks? Months? We do not know. But only bestirs himself after his son has returned to him. If the Lannisters had never returned his son to him he would most likely have never dared to do anything at all. And he still doesn't do much. His cowardice and unwillingness to commit himself to do anything is pretty clear when he makes it clear that he was perfectly willing to execute Davos should the Freys see through his rule.

And the idea that he is trying to double-cross Stannis here in favor of a restoration of the Stark kingdom doesn't make much sense in light of the fact that he actually sends Davos Seaworth, Stannis Baratheon's Hand, to retrieve Rickon from Skagos. I mean, if Wyman actually gives this task to Davos of all people then it is very likely that they will go from Skagos directly to Stannis at the Wall (if he is back there) rather than back to White Harbor. And then the surviving Stark heir would be in Stannis' hands, not in the hands of some Grand Northern Conspiracy who wants to make another King in the North. If Wyman wanted to do that why didn't he sent one of his own man to Skagos to do the job? The idea that he needs Davos because he is a smuggler doesn't make much sense. The Lord of White Harbor should know other smugglers. The whole truth would be that Davos doing this job and succeeding at it should help seal the alliance between King Stannis Baratheon and Lord Rickon Stark.

And Lyanna Mormont - well, since when are the overconfident letters written by ten-year-olds suddenly evidence for grand conspiracies...?

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn & in general:

I think there is no real debate about the question of an eventual 'Stark restoration'. That seems to be set. Just as there will be a Targaryen restoration of some sort.

However, there is no reason to believe that this will go your way. Meaning that a Stark (or Targaryen) restoration (of the final monarch on the Iron Throne) will or has to happen before the Others crisis finally gains momentum. In fact, I see it more likely that whoever ends up in charge of Winterfell/the North or KL before the grand finale is pretty much destined to lose it again - simply because a lot of people are most likely destined to die during the grand finale.

If we imagine a Stark restoration of some sort right now - meaning the next books, unknowing how many books this series will actually have in the end - then we'll actually have to imagine 'magical shields' and (perhaps not very convincing) plot devices as to why those Stark remain in charge in the middle of the War for the Dawn. This is most likely going to be the most devastating conflict in the entire series, with the most casualties and the greatest suffering. I don't see Rickon or Sansa playing any major roles in any of that. They can be figureheads in a political war, but neither of them would work as a figurehead to unite the Realm (or the North) against the Others.

Nobody doubts that the Stark POVs will play important and crucial roles in the remainder of the series. But this does not have to take the shape of the kind of restoration and revenge story you seem to want to read. Especially not the 'Northern independence' part. If something is dead and gone then it is the idea of an independent kingdom of the North and the Riverlands. This was always a foolish idea and the main (if not not only) reason for Robb's downfall.

Such a scenario would only make sense if George didn't have other important main protagonists introduced (Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow) either of which might end up uniting the Realm under a new Targaryen dynasty. Characters whose story arcs are among the most essential of the story insofar as the connected political developments are concerned.

We do not get the impression that a united rule is bad at all, nor has the concept of a central authority been targeted or weakened throughout the series. If the common interpretation of the vision of the dwarfs raping the girl in the House of the Undying is correct then all of the Five Kings were false kings who made Dany's kingdom bleed and it is her destiny/mission to end that. In addition, we see the Stark soldiers also painted in a bad light through the eyes of some of the Riverlands smallfolk as well as the eyes of the Brotherhood without Banners. The fact that Beric and company don't see only the Lannisters as evil but all the warring factions is a telltale sign in that direction.

And cutting down Jon Snow to the size of a champion for House Stark doesn't work, either, in my opinion. The man has long realized what his true mission is and is not going to fulfill it playing the secessionist card again. Assuming he is playing any cards at all in the near future.

And the idea of a 'Grand Northern Conspiracy' isn't really supported by the text. The concept only works if you pretty much assert that many characters lie about their true intentions and that what they actually mean - really mean - is not even hinted. Say, I accept that Lady Dustin has a complicated relationship with the Starks and actually wanted to be loved by them but Rickard prevented that, and later on Ned's war robbed her of her husband. The idea that she is not bitter about that is just ridiculous. Assuming that such a noblewoman is only feigning her anti-Stark resentment to get close to Roose - or that she is bitter but not so bitter as to turn on the Starks - is just wishful-thinking in my opinion. I mean, she publicly boasts that she did sent as few men to Robb as she dared. Roose would know whether this is true or not. He commanded a large chunk of the Stark host for most of the war. If it is true then this fact alone is proof enough for me that Lady Dustin has grown to hate the Starks and wanted Robb's campaign to fail.

Or take Wyman Manderly. The man (and the other members of his house) are universally perceived as weak and cowardly. Even in the North. People look down on him with contempt. This is not just a ruse on Wyman's part it is really as he is seen by many Northmen (and other Westerosi). Nobody would approach such a guy with some grand plan to defy their new liege lord. Not to mention that they would be clearly right not to do this. Wyman Manderly first thinks about himself, his family, and his city before taking other things into account. How long did he know that Rickon Stark was on Skagos? Weeks? Months? We do not know. But only bestirs himself after his son has returned to him. If the Lannisters had never returned his son to him he would most likely have never dared to do anything at all. And he still doesn't do much. His cowardice and unwillingness to commit himself to do anything is pretty clear when he makes it clear that he was perfectly willing to execute Davos should the Freys see through his rule.

And the idea that he is trying to double-cross Stannis here in favor of a restoration of the Stark kingdom doesn't make much sense in light of the fact that he actually sends Davos Seaworth, Stannis Baratheon's Hand, to retrieve Rickon from Skagos. I mean, if Wyman actually gives this task to Davos of all people then it is very likely that they will go from Skagos directly to Stannis at the Wall (if he is back there) rather than back to White Harbor. And then the surviving Stark heir would be in Stannis' hands, not in the hands of some Grand Northern Conspiracy who wants to make another King in the North. If Wyman wanted to do that why didn't he sent one of his own man to Skagos to do the job? The idea that he needs Davos because he is a smuggler doesn't make much sense. The Lord of White Harbor should know other smugglers. The whole truth would be that Davos doing this job and succeeding at it should help seal the alliance between King Stannis Baratheon and Lord Rickon Stark.

And Lyanna Mormont - well, since when are the overconfident letters written by ten-year-olds suddenly evidence for grand conspiracies...?

A lot to respond to.

Clearly Robett Glover did trust Manderly in his hour of need. He is in cahoots with him, after all. And I would argue that privately Manderly seems a lot more impatient to be done with his "Mummers Farce" than Doran was with his 15 year long vengeance plan in Dorne. Manderly just wanted his son back first. Why is that so shameful?

And if Robett trusts Manderly, why would Gallbart and Maege not trust him too? So that connects Houses Mormont, Glover and Manderly at the very least. I would argue that the Flints, Slates and Lockes are kept more in the dark, but that they come as a package deal with Lord Manderly, who states openly to Davos that they will follow his lead whether that be in swearing to Stannis or joining Roose Bolton. So at a minimum we have Houses Mormont, Glover, Manderly, Flint, Locke and Slate united in some scheme. And of course House Reed, who are Stark loyalists and who know that Bran is alive as well.

At the least, therefore, I think we can agree that these Houses - some with more knowledge than others - are united in striving for a Stark restoration in Winterfell, whether that be Rickon, Jon or Bran.

If the Crannogmen free the Greatjon I'm pretty sure the Umbers will be added to that list. And the Mountain clans have already declared themselves Stark loyalists. So are the Cerwyns. The Karstarks have now been neutralized, as we see in the Sample chapter from Winds. Who does that leave? Only the Dustins and Ryswells. And we really don't know what is going on with them.

I see Stannis winning the battle of the Lake, but that the casualties will mostly be Freys. And that this will not bring down the Boltons yet. There will be the Battle of the Lake, then an interlude with Ramsay retreating back to Winterfell. Then I can easily see some action happening in the Riverlands with the freeing of some Northern hostages. This might well happen off-screen, as we lack a viewpoint character there. We might just hear tales of it from a Sansa or Cersei chapter.

Meanwhile there will be developments at the Wall, and Jon's resurrection will be concluded in whatever way Martin chooses to play it out.

And then, when we finally go back to Winterfell, I will really not be surprised to see the Greatjon bursting through the Great Hall's doors, and smashing some Bolton heads in with an axe. I feel there will be some kind of direct closure of the loop in terms of men who were present at the Red Wedding avenging themselves on the Boltons before the end.

Where Stannis fits into this picture is a mystery. I tend to think that he disappears from the scene after the Battle of the Lake, but not necessarily permanently.

Of course, this begs the question as to who the PoV character will be in Winterfell when this all goes down, considering that Martin is not adding any new PoV's. We know that Stannis plans to execute Theon, so I doubt he will be present at Winterfell again soon. Asha is a possibility, I guess. But otherwise it would have to be Jon or Davos. There is no one else in the Northern storyline who could show us what happens at Winterfell.

EDIT

In fact, the rumour was that Jeyne Westerling would appear in the Prologue, which means it is set in the Riverlands. So maybe the rescue of the Northern hostages occurs in the Prologue already.

 

[Protagoras]

Well, well, well - I don´t think I can get further here. You are all convinced it will go the way you think it will and I am convinced it will go the way I think it will.

We will have to wait for the WoW and see. I could survive being wrong. Can you? I am curious - if the next book will be as bitter and as little heroic and "North, fuck yeah" as I think it will, how will you all feel about it? What will be the reaction if indeed my vision come to pass? What will you all think then?

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Well, well, well - I don´t think I can get further here. You are all convinced it will go the way you think it will and I am convinced it will go the way I think it will.

We will have to wait for the WoW and see. I could survive being wrong. Can you? I am curious - if the next book will be as bitter and as little heroic and "North, fuck yeah" as I think it will, how will you all feel about it? What will be the reaction if indeed my vision come to pass? What will you all think then?

Can you expand on your vision a bit more?

 

[Protagoras]

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Can you expand on your vision a bit more?

 

Didn´t I say? Well, I am not a fan of long, exact theories since those rarely, if never, survives contact with the reality - but I could give some sketchings. See this more as general thoughts than an exact plothread. 

In general - Less classical fantasy, less heroics - more suffering and more corruption. Allies attacking each other. The Boltons having more support in the North than expected. A Stannis-Manderley clash. Characters acting in their own self-interest and only doing lip service to a stark restoration. The northern hostages will die. Many lords in the north will die. A darker Jon who will care less about human lives and will continue to have his "Hero´s journey trope" twisted and at the end  turning "evil", grasping power and deciding that humanity is not worth saving . At least one more dead Stark. The price to oust the Boltons will be very high. Think Romeo and Juliet. The GNC , too loose and disorganized, fail to remove the Boltons easily - and have different agendas. Troops from the Vale will act under littlefingers motives (more infighting) and there will be even more chaos and death - when the Others arrive, slaughering more northerners - who will have a hard time defending themselves. 

And I havn´t even touched on the shitstorm that will affect the south.

Edit - I predict WoW will in end in utter northern chaos and set up the Others as a mayor threat for the south, devastating large parts of the North in the process. I also find myself in agreement with much Lord Varys just wrote - especially around the restoration, the revenge story and the northern independence pieces. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

53 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Didn´t I say? Well, I am not a fan of long, exact theories since those rarely, if never, survives contact with the reality - but I could give some sketchings. See this more as general thoughts than an exact plothread. 

In general - Less classical fantasy, less heroics - more suffering and more corruption. Allies attacking each other. The Boltons having more support in the North than expected. A Stannis-Manderley clash. Characters acting in their own self-interest and only doing lip service to a stark restoration. The northern hostages will die. Many lords in the north will die. A darker Jon who will care less about human lives and will continue to have his "Hero´s journey trope" twisted and at the end  turning "evil", grasping power and deciding that humanity is not worth saving . At least one more dead Stark. The price to oust the Boltons will be very high. Think Romeo and Juliet. The GNC , too loose and disorganized, fail to remove the Boltons easily - and have different agendas. Troops from the Vale will act under littlefingers motives (more infighting) and there will be even more chaos and death - when the Others arrive, slaughering more northerners - who will have a hard time defending themselves. 

And I havn´t even touched on the shitstorm that will affect the south.

Edit - I predict WoW will in end in utter northern chaos and set up the Others as a mayor threat for the south, devastating large parts of the North in the process. I also find myself in agreement with much Lord Varys just wrote - especially around the restoration, the revenge story and the northern independence pieces. 

Thank you for the elaboration.

Yes, that is certainly one view of Martin's style that has existed from the moment he killed Ned Stark. But Martin has also said numerous times in interviews that Ned's death was very deliberately written to make readers sit up and realize that the stakes  in this story are very real, and that no one is safe. And Robb's death later on would no doubt have reinforced this even more on people who saw Robb as Ned's successor as the lead protagonist.

But my view is that it is quite clear that neither Ned nor Robb were ever meant to be lead protagonists. For many years I felt it was quite transparent that the main characters in this story are Jon, Daenerys, Tyrion, Bran, Arya and Sansa. These characters are safe until the end game, and all the other deaths were merely meant to obscure this fact.

So actually, it wasn't a case that no one was safe. It was just a case of Martin very cleverly making it seem as if no one was safe. Then when his original plot outline was released a while ago, it was an absolute reinforcement of that long held belief of mine. It showed clearly that the above were indeed the main characters that would make it to the end. Note, that does not mean that they survive the series, but that they make it to the grand finale, where they will all play varying roles of importance.

After all, it is not so difficult to understand that no one is going to spend so much effort on sending the various kids on journeys of learning and development, only to kill them off before the pay-off is reached. It makes no narrative sense.

As for the North: Martin was asked by fans long ago - just after the Red Wedding in fact - why he makes the Stark suffer so much, and why he made the protagonists lose in his story.(This no doubt from readers who viewed Robb Stark as the main protagonist). 

Martin's answer was not that this is just the story he chose to tell, or something along those lines. Instead, his answer was that the story is not over yet. And to that you have added Jojen's prophecies of the Wolves coming again, the original title of the last book being a Time for Wolves, Sansa's forshadowing of the Snow Castle (Wintefell) being rebuilt and so on and so forth.

To me it is quite clear that the Stark return is imminent, and not something that will be left until after the main series has concluded. And the amount of focus on the Northern plotline again makes little sense if it all comes to nothing when the Others extinguish organized civilization North of the Neck.

[estermonty python]

37 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Didn´t I say? Well, I am not a fan of long, exact theories since those rarely, if never, survives contact with the reality - but I could give some sketchings. See this more as general thoughts than an exact plothread. 

In general - Less classical fantasy, less heroics - more suffering and more corruption. Allies attacking each other. The Boltons having more support in the North than expected. A Stannis-Manderley clash. Characters acting in their own self-interest and only doing lip service to a stark restoration. The northern hostages will die. Many lords in the north will die. A darker Jon who will care less about human lives and will continue to have his "Hero´s journey trope" twisted and at the end  turning "evil", grasping power and deciding that humanity is not worth saving . At least one more dead Stark. The price to oust the Boltons will be very high. Think Romeo and Juliet. The GNC , too loose and disorganized, fail to remove the Boltons easily - and have different agendas. Troops from the Vale will act under littlefingers motives (more infighting) and there will be even more chaos and death - when the Others arrive, slaughering more northerners - who will have a hard time defending themselves. 

And I havn´t even touched on the shitstorm that will affect the south.

Edit - I predict WoW will in end in utter northern chaos and set up the Others as a mayor threat for the south, devastating large parts of the North in the process.  

Considering GRRM basically gave himself PTSD writing the red wedding, I just don't think he has it in him to be so nihilistic.  To answer your question, no, I would feel quite betrayed if Winds of Winter ends with widespread death and chaos leading to the rise of Cthulu out of the shivering sea, or whatever, because that's not the story GRRM is telling.  

I do think you are misunderstanding our view, however.  A complicated revolt is not a classical fantasy trope; no one is suggesting Jon Snow will come riding in on a magical white steed into Winterfell with the united North at his back.  Rather, it will be a set of factions, all with their own interests, whose interests happen to align with removing the Boltons and Freys from power.   I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Brotherhood without Banners is working with the cranogmen, and its entirely possible that Galbart/Maege aren't even in contact with Robett and the Manderlys, but they are all working, whether independently or together, to bring down the Freys and the Boltons.  Forming alliances out of mutual self interest is not "traditional fantasy" - its how the world works. 

I also agree with FNR on another point: it creates narrative balance.  First GRRM made the point that nobility and chivalry and blind loyalty are naive and dangerous, and no way to stay in power.  That's true.  Fine.  But he is also making the point that open treachery and naked power grabs are no more effective ways of establishing rule; no sooner do the Lannisters "win" the war than they begin infighting with the Tyrells, and the utter lack of respect the entire world has for the Freys certainly telegraphs their downfall, from one side or the other.  One reason the Lannisters are successful is that they "always pay their debts"; i.e., they have a history of keeping their word.  Conversely, no one will ever trust the Boltons or Freys for generations, allies or no.  There are consequences for those actions, and we have yet to see them, but the're coming, and I don't think it will be in the form of magical ice zombies.