Winter warfare in TWoW (and later on)

[bent branch]

I had six posts I was going to respond to and then figured it was hopeless. I live in the lands that you guys are comparing to the Land of Always Winter. Yep, I am a RL north(wo)man. As I have said before, it all depends on where you live on how you judge a "severe" winter. I don't know how Werthead came up with 53 degrees north as the best equivalent of how far north Winterfell is, but I think he is at least 500 miles too far south. If we consider the Wall as being at the about the same degree north as the arctic circle, than Winterfell would be closer to 60 degrees north. (Yes, I know Planetos is bigger than Earth, but I am comparing the conditions that Martin describes and my experience in living in the north to make my assessment.) Also, I don't think you should consider the make-up of forests in the north a sign of the climate. The mix of trees that GRRM writes about is imaginary as well as one of the types of trees. The vague "conifers" being referred to is the taiga biome and extends much further south than you seem to realize. It is definitely NOT the land of always winter.

I think only crazy people (read: Cersei and Euron) will be inclined to continue warring. But then, I have a much different concept of a "severe" winter than most of you seem to.

[bent branch]

On ‎1‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 11:05 AM, Hodor's Aunt said:

In a real world mediaevel setting there would be literaly no war during the weather conditions described in the most recent books. Everybody would wait for the next spring to come. There are very few - if any - examples for winter warfare in middle/northern Europe until the 19th century. And even then you just have to look at Napoleon who was unwillingly forced to battle in winter in Russia to understand that it would have been a pretty bad idea.

Since waiting for spring could take years in ASoIF I understand the motivation to carry on with wars but I doubt it would be realistic at all.

This is especially true since they just had a war that destroyed almost everyone's provisions that they had put aside for winter. The main battles that are going to be fought at this point are those forced on them by the Others.

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Starting with the last bit, you yourself said that the next book will only cover a few months at most. In fact, as it stands, Stannis's army is trapped by a blizzard, and they were waiting for it to pass.

How do you know it will pass?

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By the time the Battles of Ice and Fire are done, we may well be almost halfway into the book. So we could essentially be halfway into the book, with the current blizzard only just having broken, and some clear weather following it.

Why should there be any clear weather?

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Clearly as of now there is still hope for the thousands of wildlings trapped at Hardhome to march hundreds of miles down to the Wall. Else Jon would not have considered that an option.

Oh, so Jon is now a weather god? He and Tormund both have no idea yet that winter has come. When they made their plans to go to Hardhome the weather was still pretty good (at the Wall, mind you, not necessarily between the Wall and Hardhome unless you think they have a magic mirror to check on the weather in those regions) and they lived still in autumn. Now winter has come.

The idea that a character making a plan is evidence that this is a good plan that has to work makes no sense.

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So if that is possible, North of the Wall, why can't thousands of people also march South of the Wall?

Have you ever considered the possibility that the snowstorm engulfing Stannis and the Boltons was no accident? That the Others might have sent that storm to target men that could become a danger when they were finally making their move? And that the clear weather at the Wall is a means to draw the Night's Watch and the wildlings out so that the wights and Others (and real winter weather) can kill them all while they are marching to Hardhome?

I find that not unlikely at all.

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We know there is plenty of conflict ahead. And that conflict cannot happen if everyone is stuck in their castles from now until next Spring. Cregan Stark was mentioned before. Well, he marched a large army from the North down to King's Landing, in Winter. Clearly it can be done. And that would have been further into Winter than the point we are at now, seeing as the White Raven only arrived at the end of Dance.

That was early in winter. When there had previously been no civil war in the North and no major losses of Northmen during a lost campaign in the Riverlands.

Remember, winter officially began on Maiden's Day in 130 AC, quite some time into Rhaenyra's half-year reign. And we actually don't know anything about it snowing in KL (during, say, the Storming of the Dragonpit), Tumbleton, the Riverlands, or elsewhere during the Dance. Perhaps the winter during the Dance began in a less severe fashion than our winter during the series has?

It has begun snowing in the Riverlands and even KL before winter officially began.

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There is some marching left to do. And in large numbers.

Perhaps. But not by the Northmen.

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But in the very depths of Winter, those numbers will decrease. Even so, however, smaller, lighter groups on hardy mountain ponies, or equipped with snowshoes and the like will still be in play. And probably give the Northmen a vast advantage over much larger Southron forces that are essentially  stuck in place. Should the plot need to unfold in that direction.

Imagine 2000 Northmen, for example, traversing a snowcovered Riverlands with snowshoes and garrons, hitting large, immobile and isolated southron armies at will, because those souhtroners are not used to operating in such conditions.

It need not be 20,000 men to make a big impact in such a scenario. Note that even in the original Dance of the Dragons, some of the most notable battles of the War involved maybe 2000 men on one side. And yet resulted in turning points for the conflict. So I foresee more of those type of engagements. Smaller in army size, but huge in impact.

Imagine 20,000 Dothraki stuck in the snow, and anihilated by 2000 Northmen who have mastered the conditions perfectly, for example. Not saying that is something that will happen, but certainly a scenario worth sketching. And maybe one which forces Daenerys to the negotiating table, and to the apparently inevitable marriage with Jon.

Those scenarios are, in part, possible in the coming story but there is no reason to believe the story is going to go down that way. Why on earth should the Northmen march again into the Riverlands in the middle of winter? They just lost a war there. Why should Dany's Dothraki (if she is in total 'conquest mode' when she arrives) march against the Northmen in the middle of winter? Why can't she wait for spring to subdue the Northmen? All she needs to do is to take the Iron Throne and force her enemies (if she has any left at that point) to march against her. She could even wait until spring to subdue the Riverlands because they are essentially no threat right now, either. They won't march against an outside enemy who is not attacking them.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, bent branch said:

I think only crazy people (read: Cersei and Euron) will be inclined to continue warring. But then, I have a much different concept of a "severe" winter than most of you seem to.

Indeed. Why the hell should they continue to war? Nothing is as important as one's own life, and whatever evil invaders there might come won't be able to cross all of Westeros to attack the North or the West. Even the Vale would be perfectly safe as long as they don't attack by sea. And if they did that they would be stuck in the Vale since they can only leave by ship in winter.

3 hours ago, bent branch said:

This is especially true since they just had a war that destroyed almost everyone's provisions that they had put aside for winter. The main battles that are going to be fought at this point are those forced on them by the Others.

Indeed. It was a deliberate tactic of the enemy to burn down your crops or seize them feed your own army. In winter, there won't be any crops to burn so they would have to continue to do the kind of shit the Lannisters did to the Riverlands. But with the Riverlands as devastated as they are right now no army should be able to march through that wasteland and live in winter. Half or more the men on the march should die of starvation because they would not be able to get enough supplies off the land.

In antiquity and the middle ages winter was the season when there was no war. Those were basically the rules dictated by nature. And that should true even more in Martinworld.

[Free Northman Reborn]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How do you know it will pass?

Why should there be any clear weather?

Oh, so Jon is now a weather god? He and Tormund both have no idea yet that winter has come. When they made their plans to go to Hardhome the weather was still pretty good (at the Wall, mind you, not necessarily between the Wall and Hardhome unless you think they have a magic mirror to check on the weather in those regions) and they lived still in autumn. Now winter has come.

The idea that a character making a plan is evidence that this is a good plan that has to work makes no sense.

Have you ever considered the possibility that the snowstorm engulfing Stannis and the Boltons was no accident? That the Others might have sent that storm to target men that could become a danger when they were finally making their move? And that the clear weather at the Wall is a means to draw the Night's Watch and the wildlings out so that the wights and Others (and real winter weather) can kill them all while they are marching to Hardhome?

I find that not unlikely at all.

That was early in winter. When there had previously been no civil war in the North and no major losses of Northmen during a lost campaign in the Riverlands.

Remember, winter officially began on Maiden's Day in 130 AC, quite some time into Rhaenyra's half-year reign. And we actually don't know anything about it snowing in KL (during, say, the Storming of the Dragonpit), Tumbleton, the Riverlands, or elsewhere during the Dance. Perhaps the winter during the Dance began in a less severe fashion than our winter during the series has?

It has begun snowing in the Riverlands and even KL before winter officially began.

Perhaps. But not by the Northmen.

Those scenarios are, in part, possible in the coming story but there is no reason to believe the story is going to go down that way. Why on earth should the Northmen march again into the Riverlands in the middle of winter? They just lost a war there. Why should Dany's Dothraki (if she is in total 'conquest mode' when she arrives) march against the Northmen in the middle of winter? Why can't she wait for spring to subdue the Northmen? All she needs to do is to take the Iron Throne and force her enemies (if she has any left at that point) to march against her. She could even wait until spring to subdue the Riverlands because they are essentially no threat right now, either. They won't march against an outside enemy who is not attacking them.

I think one thing that is apparent at this point is that we have sharply diverging views of what Winter will entail. The single bolded opening line in your post above refers.

If you seriously propose that the rest of the series will take place in a single, neverending blizzard, I don't see how the drama can realistically continue. A permanent "white out" means everyone stuck in their castles or caves, and no interaction between distant locations. This is not a realistic way to further the story.

Winter will inevitably entail, in my view, severe blizzards, followed by interludes of calm between snowstorms. Even in Alaska, Canada or Siberia that is the nature of winter. And in Martinworld we know for example that the storms in the Narrow Sea bear out this pattern. . We are told that while Winter storms are more severe, Autumn storms are more frequent. Therefore, the interludes between storms are actually longer during Winter, than during Autumn.

Also, the danger of the Long Night has always been presented as arising from its duration, rather than its intensity. It was starvation and the relentless continuation of the Winter that brought down the kingdoms of men, one by one. And even in this severest of all Winters, the Long Night, the Last Hero still ventured out, travelling across the land with his companions.

Quite simply, a story where people and armies are castle bound, with no hope of interacting, means conflict is virtually impossible. And that means the series effectively comes to an end. So no, I don't agree with your assessment of Winter warfare.

 

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think one thing that is apparent at this point is that we have sharply diverging views of what Winter will entail. The single bolded opening line in your post above refers.

It is much more in line with what George has said the book would entail, though. It is supposed to be a very grim and dark book, depicting the effects of winter. Possibly the darkest yet to come. Go and check his recent talks about it.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If you seriously propose that the rest of the series will take place in a a single, neverending blizzard, I don't see how the drama can realistically continue.

Well, I guess the wind can eventually cease for a time, and all, but there is no good reason to assume that we should get some weeks without snowing, especially not up north. Do you recall what happened above Bran's cave back in ADwD? It snowed. Continuously.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

A permanent "white out" means everyone stuck in their castles or caves, and no interaction between distant locations. This is not a realistic way to further the story.

A lot of people have already teamed up. They can interact with each other. There is little chance for long travels overland in the next books. People might make longer voyages by ship, of course, but that would be it, at least for the people up north. Down where it is not yet snowing everybody might be somewhat more mobile.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Winter will inevitably entail, in my view, severe blizzards, followed by interludes of calm between snowstorms. Even in Alaska, Canada or Siberia that is the nature of winter.

But we are talking about a magical winter here. A winter most likely cooked up/created by some ice demons who intend to use to wipe out mankind. You don't compare such a winter to your run-of-the-mill real world winter.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And in Martinworld we know for example that the storms in the Narrow Sea bear out this pattern. . We are told that while Winter storms are more severe, Autumn storms are more frequent. Therefore, the interludes between storms are actually longer during Winter, than during Autumn.

Those are storms at sea. If you knew anything about weather than you the sea is a different animal than the land. And again, snowstorms aren't necessarily the problem. Snowing alone could suffice.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also, the danger of the Long Night has always been presented as arising from its duration, rather than its intensity. It was starvation and the relentless continuation of the Winter that brought down the kingdoms of men, one by one. And even in this severest of all Winters, the Long Night, the Last Hero still ventured out, travelling across the land with his companions.

That is the story. Is that story true? Was the Long Night truly as long as Old Nan's story makes it? Did Ser Arlan of Pennytree truly break seven lances against the Prince of Dragonstone?

Do you really believe the people of Westeros would have survived a winter that lasted for a generation (which would mean about twenty years)? I'm somewhat skeptical about that.

But even if they did - that is not going to happen now. Now Westeros has weakened itself during some bloody civil war and continues to do so. The story is not going to cover a Long Night that lasts for a generation. Winter has to get very sharp teeth very soon just as the dragons will grow as quickly (and as large) as they have to.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Quite simply, a story where people and armies are castle bound, with no hope of interacting, means conflict is virtually impossible. And that means the series effectively comes to an end. So no, I don't agree with your assessment of Winter warfare.

It depends on the story. I'm pretty sure many people down in the South won't be castle bound yet. Far to the contrary, actually.

But I don't think a lot of conflict and moving is going to happen in the North in the next book. Stannis and Roose will decide the matter at Winterfell, and that will be the end of it. There might be additional fighting at or beyond the Wall - when the Weeper attacks and if there is a Hardhome mission after all. Once the Others have killed all the wildlings still at Hardhome (if Mel's vision about all the fires there going out was correct that's what's going to happen) they can prepare to move against the Wall itself, although they most likely will first meticulously kill every other human being north of the Wall before they proceed farther south.

And those ships could easily enough complicate things. What if some of Pyke's men make it back but some wights have hidden aboard or beneath the ship? What if the Others capture one of Pyke's ships or even one of the slavers the Lyseni intend to send up north?

If you intend people up north will enjoy hitting the road in winter you are mistaken. They will do it if they have to, but they probably only will have to when the Others come knocking at their doors and not before. The coming of winter will mark the end of all mundane wars for power and control. Even if neither Stannis nor the Boltons would win a decisive victory at Winterfell they would most likely not decide to pursue or continue to attack each other in winter because their followers would not suffer this (although Stannis might try to). You cannot hope to successfully besiege a castle in winter. The Northmen actually know what winter means. Do you?

[Free Northman Reborn]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is much more in line with what George has said the book would entail, though. It is supposed to be a very grim and dark book, depicting the effects of winter. Possibly the darkest yet to come. Go and check his recent talks about it.

Well, I guess the wind can eventually cease for a time, and all, but there is no good reason to assume that we should get some weeks without snowing, especially not up north. Do you recall what happened above Bran's cave back in ADwD? It snowed. Continuously.

A lot of people have already teamed up. They can interact with each other. There is little chance for long travels overland in the next books. People might make longer voyages by ship, of course, but that would be it, at least for the people up north. Down where it is not yet snowing everybody might be somewhat more mobile.

But we are talking about a magical winter here. A winter most likely cooked up/created by some ice demons who intend to use to wipe out mankind. You don't compare such a winter to your run-of-the-mill real world winter.

Those are storms at sea. If you knew anything about weather than you the sea is a different animal than the land. And again, snowstorms aren't necessarily the problem. Snowing alone could suffice.

That is the story. Is that story true? Was the Long Night truly as long as Old Nan's story makes it? Did Ser Arlan of Pennytree truly break seven lances against the Prince of Dragonstone?

Do you really believe the people of Westeros would have survived a winter that lasted for a generation (which would mean about twenty years)? I'm somewhat skeptical about that.

But even if they did - that is not going to happen now. Now Westeros has weakened itself during some bloody civil war and continues to do so. The story is not going to cover a Long Night that lasts for a generation. Winter has to get very sharp teeth very soon just as the dragons will grow as quickly (and as large) as they have to.

It depends on the story. I'm pretty sure many people down in the South won't be castle bound yet. Far to the contrary, actually.

But I don't think a lot of conflict and moving is going to happen in the North in the next book. Stannis and Roose will decide the matter at Winterfell, and that will be the end of it. There might be additional fighting at or beyond the Wall - when the Weeper attacks and if there is a Hardhome mission after all. Once the Others have killed all the wildlings still at Hardhome (if Mel's vision about all the fires there going out was correct that's what's going to happen) they can prepare to move against the Wall itself, although they most likely will first meticulously kill every other human being north of the Wall before they proceed farther south.

And those ships could easily enough complicate things. What if some of Pyke's men make it back but some wights have hidden aboard or beneath the ship? What if the Others capture one of Pyke's ships or even one of the slavers the Lyseni intend to send up north?

If you intend people up north will enjoy hitting the road in winter you are mistaken. They will do it if they have to, but they probably only will have to when the Others come knocking at their doors and not before. The coming of winter will mark the end of all mundane wars for power and control. Even if neither Stannis nor the Boltons would win a decisive victory at Winterfell they would most likely not decide to pursue or continue to attack each other in winter because their followers would not suffer this (although Stannis might try to). You cannot hope to successfully besiege a castle in winter. The Northmen actually know what winter means. Do you?

Once again, you conflate a whole bunch of issues to reach the conclusion of your choice.

Martin's reference to the next book being grim, dark and showing the effects of Winter refers. That can mean many things other than 40 foot snowdrifts making travel impossible. It can mean grim as in the released Damphair chapter. It can mean dark as in Euron's continued depravities in the South, Arya's continued path towards violence and death dealing and the darkness in Jon after returning from death. And it can show the effects of Winter on food supplies, men suffering from frostbite, resorting to cannibalism and smallfolk suffering without sufficient sustenance or shelter.

It does not have to depict what you suggest.

Same with the generation long Winter. That is a nice strawman. I am one of the strongest advocates for the Long Night never having lasted a generation. As I have often said, a 20 year long Winter would have left no human life on the planet, and very little animal life either. For an unprepared world, never having experienced a lop sided season before, a 5 year Winter would pretty much have led to the same devestation. My point is, it was this extended Winter (anything longer than 2 seasons in a row) which led to the collapse of human civilization. Not a single, freezing blizzard that buried everyone in 6 months.

What we will see soon is that Mountain passes will seal shut for the Winter, isolating remote communities. Migrations will start to Winter holdouts as is traditional in the North. The Clansmen will bring some of their families down to Wintertown. Barrowton and White Harbour will swell in size. The Thenns will settle at Karhold. People will go into Winter mode in the North. As they have done for 8000 years.

But activity will continue, albeit under much harsher conditions. We aren't looking at a single blizzard covering the North from now until the Epilogue of the series. That is not realistic.

[Lord Varys]

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Once again, you conflate a whole bunch of issues to reach the conclusion of your choice.

I don't.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Martin's reference to the next book being grim, dark and showing the effects of Winter refers. That can mean many things other than 40 foot snowdrifts making travel impossible. It can mean grim as in the released Damphair chapter.

It actually also includes that, of course, because in the recent interview I was talking about 'The Forsaken' was what begun the discussion of TWoW. And I did say that the weather would still be somewhat shinier down in the South, didn't I?

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It can mean dark as in Euron's continued depravities in the South, Arya's continued path towards violence and death dealing and the darkness in Jon after returning from death.

It will most certainly also entail that.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And it can show the effects of Winter on food supplies, men suffering from frostbite, resorting to cannibalism and smallfolk suffering without sufficient sustenance or shelter.

And that's going to restrict travel. Frostbite is quite harmless compared to the stuff that actually happens to you if you are too cold too long. Cannibalism should become very familiar rather quickly to everybody who actually marching in some (small) host, especially in the North were food will be scarce. People who actually without sustenance and shelter will quickly starve and freeze to death. If you have to sleep outside in winter you die pretty quickly if you don't have any shelter whatsoever. The temperatures don't have go drop all that low for that.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It does not have to depict what you suggest.

What did I suggest that isn't entailed in all that? I said people would not continue to go to war in the regions where winter has set in. Don't you agree with that?

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Same with the generation long Winter. That is a nice strawman. I am one of the strongest advocates for the Long Night never having lasted a generation. As I have often said, a 20 year long Winter would have left no human life on the planet, and very little animal life either.

We know the Long Night wasn't as worse in in the southern reaches of the world as it was in the north of the world. So, no, a 20-year-long winter wouldn't have eradicated all human or animal life on the planet but it certainly could have depopulated entire regions. And perhaps it did just that, we don't know. I still don't think there was a 20-year-long winter.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For an unprepared world, never having experienced a lop sided season before, a 5 year Winter would pretty much have led to the same devestation. My point is, it was this extended Winter (anything longer than 2 seasons in a row) which led to the collapse of human civilization. Not a single, freezing blizzard that buried everyone in 6 months.

But this doesn't mean that this was a winter where there were some sunny days where people could still war amongst each other, right? And we don't know how far the Last Hero and his companions could travel when they began their journey. Perhaps they didn't get all that far? We don't know where they started their journey and where the Hero finally found the Children of the Forest if he did.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What we will see soon is that Mountain passes will seal shut for the Winter, isolating remote communities.

That already happened.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Migrations will start to Winter holdouts as is traditional in the North. The Clansmen will bring some of their families down to Wintertown.

With Winterfell destroyed? Not all that likely. The castle has been crudely rebuilt, true, but it is no longer a winter refuge for the Northmen. The glass gardens are gone, and Ramsay would have either burned all the food stored at Winterfell or taken it, along with the prisoners he made, to the Dreadfort. What would the people looking for shelter at Winterfell eat? Snow?

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Barrowton and White Harbour will swell in size. The Thenns will settle at Karhold. People will go into Winter mode in the North. As they have done for 8000 years.

White Harbor has already swollen in size due to the refugees seeking shelter there. But nothing suggests people travel to Barrowton and White Harbor in winter. The Starks are apparently famed for offering shelter and food (if they have it) to their people if they ask for it. But nothing suggests the Manderlys or the Dustins do the same.

Winter mode would mean they settle down and wait until winter is over. What else could or should they do?

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But activity will continue, albeit under much harsher conditions. We aren't looking at a single blizzard covering the North from now until the Epilogue of the series. That is not realistic.

That is not what I said. I asked the question whether the winter weather the people in the North were facing in ADwD might have been cooked up the Others. And, assuming that could be the case, whether that could also mean that things won't get better because the Others have no interest in granting their enemies any good weather if they can prevent it.

Even if the sun comes out again for days or even weeks, it is not likely to get any warmer (you know that sunny weather in winter doesn't mean it is getting warm, right?), and it will continue to be very cold in the nights. Nobody would come up with a notion as stupid as 'Well, the snowstorm is over now, let's go march somewhere' since, you know, marching through snow is an ordeal, it will take very long to go even a small distance, and the weather could get worse any day. So just as Stannis began his march on a sunny day they could all freeze to death just twenty miles away from whatever castle they set out from.

People who have nothing to lose might try it anyways, but the Northmen still have a lot to lose, presumably.

Additionally, you have to keep in mind that we know the North basically has not enough food. That means those people who still sit on some food will do hell and risk losing large portions of it during some march. If you sit on your ass the entire day you don't need as much food as you need to survive if you are marching and freezing in the open the entire day. Not to mention that as a lord/commander you have a purpose with whatever host you have. You need the men in your service in fighting condition on the battlefield you are trying to reach. So you can't afford to give them no or only insufficient food.

But if you stay at home you don't have to share your food with anybody aside from the people that usually live in your castle (i.e. your family, your servants, your garrison, if you have any, etc.). That way you have a much better chance to survive winter. You know, because you don't know how many years winter will last.

Inside your castle you can let the men starve and freeze to death you would actually have to feed if they were marching in your army. You are safe behind high walls.

Now tell me again why anybody would want to go to war in winter if he can prevent it? And the Lords of the North can prevent that simply by going home after whatever happens near/at Winterfell. They intended to end this campaign in autumn. Nobody of them is likely to have any inclination to fight in winter. And they will learn that winter has officially begun quickly enough.

[Free Northman Reborn]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't.

It actually also includes that, of course, because in the recent interview I was talking about 'The Forsaken' was what begun the discussion of TWoW. And I did say that the weather would still be somewhat shinier down in the South, didn't I?

It will most certainly also entail that.

And that's going to restrict travel. Frostbite is quite harmless compared to the stuff that actually happens to you if you are too cold too long. Cannibalism should become very familiar rather quickly to everybody who actually marching in some (small) host, especially in the North were food will be scarce. People who actually without sustenance and shelter will quickly starve and freeze to death. If you have to sleep outside in winter you die pretty quickly if you don't have any shelter whatsoever. The temperatures don't have go drop all that low for that.

What did I suggest that isn't entailed in all that? I said people would not continue to go to war in the regions where winter has set in. Don't you agree with that?

We know the Long Night wasn't as worse in in the southern reaches of the world as it was in the north of the world. So, no, a 20-year-long winter wouldn't have eradicated all human or animal life on the planet but it certainly could have depopulated entire regions. And perhaps it did just that, we don't know. I still don't think there was a 20-year-long winter.

But this doesn't mean that this was a winter where there were some sunny days where people could still war amongst each other, right? And we don't know how far the Last Hero and his companions could travel when they began their journey. Perhaps they didn't get all that far? We don't know where they started their journey and where the Hero finally found the Children of the Forest if he did.

That already happened.

With Winterfell destroyed? Not all that likely. The castle has been crudely rebuilt, true, but it is no longer a winter refuge for the Northmen. The glass gardens are gone, and Ramsay would have either burned all the food stored at Winterfell or taken it, along with the prisoners he made, to the Dreadfort. What would the people looking for shelter at Winterfell eat? Snow?

White Harbor has already swollen in size due to the refugees seeking shelter there. But nothing suggests people travel to Barrowton and White Harbor in winter. The Starks are apparently famed for offering shelter and food (if they have it) to their people if they ask for it. But nothing suggests the Manderlys or the Dustins do the same.

Winter mode would mean they settle down and wait until winter is over. What else could or should they do?

That is not what I said. I asked the question whether the winter weather the people in the North were facing in ADwD might have been cooked up the Others. And, assuming that could be the case, whether that could also mean that things won't get better because the Others have no interest in granting their enemies any good weather if they can prevent it.

Even if the sun comes out again for days or even weeks, it is not likely to get any warmer (you know that sunny weather in winter doesn't mean it is getting warm, right?), and it will continue to be very cold in the nights. Nobody would come up with a notion as stupid as 'Well, the snowstorm is over now, let's go march somewhere' since, you know, marching through snow is an ordeal, it will take very long to go even a small distance, and the weather could get worse any day. So just as Stannis began his march on a sunny day they could all freeze to death just twenty miles away from whatever castle they set out from.

People who have nothing to lose might try it anyways, but the Northmen still have a lot to lose, presumably.

Additionally, you have to keep in mind that we know the North basically has not enough food. That means those people who still sit on some food will do hell and risk losing large portions of it during some march. If you sit on your ass the entire day you don't need as much food as you need to survive if you are marching and freezing in the open the entire day. Not to mention that as a lord/commander you have a purpose with whatever host you have. You need the men in your service in fighting condition on the battlefield you are trying to reach. So you can't afford to give them no or only insufficient food.

But if you stay at home you don't have to share your food with anybody aside from the people that usually live in your castle (i.e. your family, your servants, your garrison, if you have any, etc.). That way you have a much better chance to survive winter. You know, because you don't know how many years winter will last.

Inside your castle you can let the men starve and freeze to death you would actually have to feed if they were marching in your army. You are safe behind high walls.

Now tell me again why anybody would want to go to war in winter if he can prevent it? And the Lords of the North can prevent that simply by going home after whatever happens near/at Winterfell. They intended to end this campaign in autumn. Nobody of them is likely to have any inclination to fight in winter. And they will learn that winter has officially begun quickly enough.

So much to address, all over the place. But let's focus on your last question. Why would they want to go to war? Because the story requires it, quite simply.

And as for how Martin makes it happen: Whether it gets warm or not between blizzards, Martin has shown the Clansmen and their horses traversing deep snow quite manageably. Braving sub zero conditions without losing a man. Tycho Nestoris and his ransomed Ironborn travelled in the middle of the blizzard, 300 miles from Deepwood Motte, to Winterfell and back to Stannis's camp with Theon in tow, without major apparent difficulty.

Brandon Ice Eyes travelled in the depths of a colder than usual Winter from Winterfell to White Harbor - so what if he ventured down the White Knife, that could be a nice model for travel on other frozen rivers in the North. The point is, it was done.

Val travelled North of the Wall at about the same time as Stannis's Wolfswood journey, and returned with a host of wildlings, again, without them all succumbing to the cold at night.

Even now, Stannis is sending Jeyne Pool and a company of knights all the way from the Wolfswood to the Wall, which will take place early in Winds of Winter. Do you have any doubt that they will arrive safely?

Look, as much as you want Winter to effectively shut down the story in the North, it is quite clear that Martin has a lot of unfinished business in the North, and if he wants people to travel from point A to point B in snow covered conditions, he will make it happen.

The Northern plot cannot continue if people cannot travel between locations. Hence, people will continue to travel between locations. Whether it be from Winterfell to Castle Black, from Winterfell to the Dreadfort or from Winterfell to King's Landing for that matter.

[Lord Varys]

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So much to address, all over the place. But let's focus on your last question. Why would they want to go to war? Because the story requires it, quite simply.

Actually, it doesn't. Once the Stannis-Bolton thing is settled there is no reason for the Northmen to continue to go to war. They are done. The only people who might threaten them are the Weeper and the Others.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as for how Martin makes it happen: Whether it gets warm or not between blizzards, Martin has shown the Clansmen and their horses traversing deep snow quite manageably. Braving sub zero conditions without losing a man.

During an autumn storm. While they still had provisions. On a march from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell with the storm only setting in after they had gone a good portion of the way. You do remember that they are only three days away from Winterfell when they finally can't move anymore, right? It begins snowing before that, of course, but it didn't snow when they began their march. That's the whole point of the chapter where they end up in the snow.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Tycho Nestoris and his ransomed Ironborn travelled in the middle of the blizzard, 300 miles from Deepwood Motte, to Winterfell and back to Stannis's camp with Theon in tow, without major apparent difficulty.

Actually, not. Nobody has said that it was snowing and storming at Deepwood Motte, right? And I did never say that a small and well-provisioned party couldn't travel in winter. Don't compare apples and oranges here. And they did face quite some difficulty during the travel from Winterfell to the village in the snow. Remember, Jeyne Poole lost her nose to frostbite.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Brandon Ice Eyes travelled in the depths of a colder than usual Winter from Winterfell to White Harbor - so what if he ventured down the White Knife, that could be a nice model for travel on other frozen rivers in the North. The point is, it was done.

We have already discussed this. This is not an example that makes sense. Brandon Ice Eyes didn't lose 15,000 Northmen to the Lannisters and Freys. Why would anybody now entertain such an idea when they have neither the food nor the men nor a reason to do anything of that sort.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Val travelled North of the Wall at about the same time as Stannis's Wolfswood journey, and returned with a host of wildlings, again, without them all succumbing to the cold at night.

Val comes from the lands beyond the Wall. She was riding all by herself and most likely knew where to look for Tormund. Else she wouldn't have found him. The man and his people wouldn't exactly have been all that far from the Wall. A lot of wildlings are actually dying from the cold in the night and then rise again with blue eyes. You can ask Tormund about that.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Even now, Stannis is sending Jeyne Pool and a company of knights all the way from the Wolfswood to the Wall, which will take place early in Winds of Winter. Do you have any doubt that they will arrive safely?

Actually, in light of Jeyne's nose I'd not bet on that. But then, if Stannis gives them enough horses and they have enough provisions they might make it to Winterfell. But that's not a guarantee.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, as much as you want Winter to effectively shut down the story in the North, it is quite clear that Martin has a lot of unfinished business in the North, and if he wants people to travel from point A to point B in snow covered conditions, he will make it happen.

What is all that unfinished business you are talking about? Perhaps George will actually model his story on the weather conditions he wants winter to have. You know, because this series is about those freak seasons and the whole 'Winter is coming' theme.

26 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Northern plot cannot continue if people cannot travel between locations. Hence, people will continue to travel between locations. Whether it be from Winterfell to Castle Black, from Winterfell to the Dreadfort or from Winterfell to King's Landing for that matter.

The elite controlling access to food, horses, and warm clothes will continue to move around if they have to. Others won't. They no longer can.

[Free Northman Reborn]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, it doesn't. Once the Stannis-Bolton thing is settled there is no reason for the Northmen to continue to go to war. They are done. The only people who might threaten them are the Weeper and the Others.

During an autumn storm. While they still had provisions. On a march from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell with the storm only setting in after they had gone a good portion of the way. You do remember that they are only three days away from Winterfell when they finally can't move anymore, right? It begins snowing before that, of course, but it didn't snow when they began their march. That's the whole point of the chapter where they end up in the snow.

Actually, not. Nobody has said that it was snowing and storming at Deepwood Motte, right? And I did never say that a small and well-provisioned party couldn't travel in winter. Don't compare apples and oranges here. And they did face quite some difficulty during the travel from Winterfell to the village in the snow. Remember, Jeyne Poole lost her nose to frostbite.

We have already discussed this. This is not an example that makes sense. Brandon Ice Eyes didn't lose 15,000 Northmen to the Lannisters and Freys. Why would anybody now entertain such an idea when they have neither the food nor the men nor a reason to do anything of that sort.

Val comes from the lands beyond the Wall. She was riding all by herself and most likely knew where to look for Tormund. Else she wouldn't have found him. The man and his people wouldn't exactly have been all that far from the Wall. A lot of wildlings are actually dying from the cold in the night and then rise again with blue eyes. You can ask Tormund about that.

Actually, in light of Jeyne's nose I'd not bet on that. But then, if Stannis gives them enough horses and they have enough provisions they might make it to Winterfell. But that's not a guarantee.

What is all that unfinished business you are talking about? Perhaps George will actually model his story on the weather conditions he wants winter to have. You know, because this series is about those freak seasons and the whole 'Winter is coming' theme.

The elite controlling access to food, horses, and warm clothes will continue to move around if they have to. Others won't. They no longer can.

Your contention was that even if blizzards end, that does not mean that it gets warm during the interlude. I was pointing out that it does not have to get warm, the northmen can traverse the snow covered landscape quite well, as long as the weather is clear (meaning no blizzard).

And as far as Tycho Nestoris and his Ironborn guards are concerned, you don't seem to get it. It doesn't matter if the blizzard extended to Deepwood Motte. The point is, they travelled from Deepwood Motte, past Stannis and all the way to Winterfell, and back to Stannis again, during the time that Stannis was snowed in by the blizzard. Hence, they travelled through the blizzard, on horseback. Obviously on horses supplied by the Glovers, hence these would be northern horses, aclimatized to the conditions.

Now, this is an even greater achievement than marching inbetween blizzards.

And then you get to a different line of argument. The provisions issue. This is quite a different issue from the weather making the land impassable. Hopefully we've now addressed the latter, with the Brandon Ice Eyes, Clansmen and their garrons and Tycho Nestoris examples.

As for the provisions issue. Well, that goes without saying. If a party does not have provisions, they cannot sustain themselves, and hence, cannot travel. So that would be a precondition to going anywhere. However, I do not see that as prohibiting any warfare in the next book. Lord Manderly's food stores appear to be overflowing, the last time we saw him. And he has the potential of endless resupply from the ocean. If an army is gathered at White Harbor, it could easily have sufficient supplies for thousands of men to march.

Similarly, there is no indication that the Ryswells, Dustins, Flints of Widow's Watch, Dreadfort or even the Last Hearth is out of food. Bowen Marsh himself stated that the Summer had been bountiful, and the northern lords generous in their donations to the Watch.

Anyway, the point is, the food supply issue is a given in any military scenario. You need food to feed an army. And consider that even now, Manderly is quite confident that he can feed any refugee that wishes to join his army, hence his recruiting spree in White Harbor. And his offer to Stannis makes it clear that he can supply and feed more heavy horse than even the Boltons, if Stannis meets his terms. That in addition to his infantry forces. Wherever they need to march, Manderly will be feeding them.

So again, the idea that all military activity will stop now because the White Raven has arrived from the Citadel does not hold water.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Your contention was that even if blizzards end, that does not mean that it gets warm during the interlude. I was pointing out that it does not have to get warm, the northmen can traverse the snow covered landscape quite well, as long as the weather is clear (meaning no blizzard).

Well, the horses and equipment also works in a blizzard. I'm not saying that they cannot possibly, just that it would be dangerous, suicidal, and pointless to go on a campaign in winter. They have no need to do so.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And as far as Tycho Nestoris and his Ironborn guards are concerned, you don't seem to get it. It doesn't matter if the blizzard extended to Deepwood Motte. The point is, they travelled from Deepwood Motte, past Stannis and all the way to Winterell, and back to Stannis again, during the time that Stannis was snowed in by the blizzard. Hence, they travelled through the blizzard, on horseback. Obviously on horses supplied by the Glovers, hence these would be northern horses, aclimatized to the conditions.

Yeah, this is still just an autumn storm after all. But I don't see that as a great accomplishment. Stannis' army cannot continue its march because there are a lot of men on foot in his army, and an army cannot much quickly in snow. They are also carrying food, tents, and other stuff they have to move. It is taking time, that means they will have to eat more food, and that means they will starve.

A small party has none of those problems because they carry less stuff around, can all ride, and so on.

And whether Tycho's group actually rode through the storm isn't clear. Stannis' people were hit by it on the march, but Tycho's group might actually have evaded it depending what route they took

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Now, this is an even greater achievement than marching inbetween blizzards.

No, it isn't. 

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And then you get to a different line of argument. The provisions issue. This is quite a different issue from the weather making the land impassable. Hopefully we've now addressed the latter, with the Brandon Ice Eyes, Clansmen and their garrons and Tycho Nestoris examples.

No, we did not. And honestly, you have no idea how many people died on Brandon Ice Eyes march to the Wolf's Den. The man might have been called Ice Eyes for reason. Say, for not caring whether his men lived or died. But he would have had ample provisions beginning his journey at an intact Winterfell.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the provisions issue. Well, that goes without saying. If a party does not have provisions, they cannot sustain themselves, and hence, cannot travel. So that would be a precondition to going anywhere. However, I do not see that as prohibiting any warfare in the next book. Lord Manderly's food stores appear to be oveflowing, the last time we saw him. And he has the potential of endless resupply from the ocean. If an army is gathered at White Harbor, it could easily have sufficient supplies for thousands of men to march.

Certainly not. Lord Manderly sits right now at Winterfell, at Roose Bolton's mercy, and is not likely to going to survive his betrayal. They will find the time to kill the fat man if everything goes to hell. And he cannot run. Assuming he recovers from the wound Hosteen Frey dealt him. It didn't seem mortal but it could fester and kill him all the same. Just remember Victarion's wound from AFfC.

That said, we actually don't know who is going to lead the Manderly men in Lord Wyman's absence. Neither Wylis nor Wyman's cousin Ser Marlon is mentioned as being at Winterfell. That could become a problem.

As to the provisions - we know that the thousands of people that were cramped into Winterfell in ADwD were putting a strain on Roose's provisions. That's one of the reason why he sent the Freys and the Manderlys out. Usually an army lives off the land as well as by the stuff they actually have in their baggage. In winter they can't live off the land because there is no food to be had, They would have to carry along food for the horses as well as the men. That is simply not going to work.

Lord Wyman could feed people at or near White Harbor, but he cannot make whatever food he has magically accompanying an army he sending off to march to war. And we actually know he only brought 300 men to Winterfell. That doesn't make it likely he brought a lot of food with him, right? He had the Frey pies and a lot of food for himself, sure, but he is the Lord Manderly. He eats well. But not everybody else.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Similarly, there is no indication that the Ryswells, Dustins, Flints of Widow's Watch, Dreadfort or even the Last Hearth is out of food.

The Umbers also had trouble bringing the last harvest in. Ramsay, Barbrey, and the Ryswells would have brought a lot of their provisions to Winterfell when they marched there. Thanks to Ramsay there was no food there, they had to bring everything they eat right now.

Whatever food those people have stored is back home in their stores. And it is not going to magically materialize wherever you think the plot might need it.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bowen Marsh himself stated that the Summer had been bountiful, and the northern lords generous in their donations to the Watch.

That was summer, not autumn. And the Watch has means to permanently store a large variety of foods in the Wall. Nothing suggests that the castles of Westeros also has a magical ice wall to keep the food fresh. George does nothing to convince us that Westeros could even live through a year-long winter but that is a separate issue.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, the point is, the food supply issue is a given in any military scenario. You need food to feed an army.

Yeah, and you usually live off the land you are on. That's how it is done. That's what foragers are for. That's what Gregor and his people and the Bloody Mummers are doing in ACoK in the Riverlands. But you can't do that in winter.

Roose might still win his war even if he and his forces are all defeated if he gets the chance to destroy all the food in Winterfell before leaving with enough food to return to the Dreadfort. Stannis provisions are dwindling already, and he cannot possibly feed all the survivors of the battles, especially if a decent portion of them defect to his side.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And his offer to Stannis makes it clear that he can supply and feed more heavy horse than even the Boltons, if Stannis meets his terms. That in addition to his infantry forces. Wherever they need to march, Manderly will be feeding them.

Manderly said nothing about going to war in winter as far as I recall. Where did you read anything about that? When he and Davos were talking it was still autumn.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So again, the idea that all military activity will stop now because the White Raven has arrived from the Citadel does not hold water.

It is pretty obvious that it does. I really suggest you go back and read the relevant Asha and Theon chapter covering the situation in Stannis' camp and at Winterfell. The overall feeling is depressing. People don't want this kind of thing. They might continue for a while if they have to but they won't begin a new war.

[Free Northman Reborn]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the horses and equipment also works in a blizzard. I'm not saying that they cannot possibly, just that it would be dangerous, suicidal, and pointless to go on a campaign in winter. They have no need to do so.

Yeah, this is still just an autumn storm after all. But I don't see that as a great accomplishment. Stannis' army cannot continue its march because there are a lot of men on foot in his army, and an army cannot much quickly in snow. They are also carrying food, tents, and other stuff they have to move. It is taking time, that means they will have to eat more food, and that means they will starve.

A small party has none of those problems because they carry less stuff around, can all ride, and so on.

And whether Tycho's group actually rode through the storm isn't clear. Stannis' people were hit by it on the march, but Tycho's group might actually have evaded it depending what route they took

No, it isn't. 

No, we did not. And honestly, you have no idea how many people died on Brandon Ice Eyes march to the Wolf's Den. The man might have been called Ice Eyes for reason. Say, for not caring whether his men lived or died. But he would have had ample provisions beginning his journey at an intact Winterfell.

Certainly not. Lord Manderly sits right now at Winterfell, at Roose Bolton's mercy, and is not likely to going to survive his betrayal. They will find the time to kill the fat man if everything goes to hell. And he cannot run. Assuming he recovers from the wound Hosteen Frey dealt him. It didn't seem mortal but it could fester and kill him all the same. Just remember Victarion's wound from AFfC.

That said, we actually don't know who is going to lead the Manderly men in Lord Wyman's absence. Neither Wylis nor Wyman's cousin Ser Marlon is mentioned as being at Winterfell. That could become a problem.

As to the provisions - we know that the thousands of people that were cramped into Winterfell in ADwD were putting a strain on Roose's provisions. That's one of the reason why he sent the Freys and the Manderlys out. Usually an army lives off the land as well as by the stuff they actually have in their baggage. In winter they can't live off the land because there is no food to be had, They would have to carry along food for the horses as well as the men. That is simply not going to work.

Lord Wyman could feed people at or near White Harbor, but he cannot make whatever food he has magically accompanying an army he sending off to march to war. And we actually know he only brought 300 men to Winterfell. That doesn't make it likely he brought a lot of food with him, right? He had the Frey pies and a lot of food for himself, sure, but he is the Lord Manderly. He eats well. But not everybody else.

The Umbers also had trouble bringing the last harvest in. Ramsay, Barbrey, and the Ryswells would have brought a lot of their provisions to Winterfell when they marched there. Thanks to Ramsay there was no food there, they had to bring everything they eat right now.

Whatever food those people have stored is back home in their stores. And it is not going to magically materialize wherever you think the plot might need it.

That was summer, not autumn. And the Watch has means to permanently store a large variety of foods in the Wall. Nothing suggests that the castles of Westeros also has a magical ice wall to keep the food fresh. George does nothing to convince us that Westeros could even live through a year-long winter but that is a separate issue.

Yeah, and you usually live off the land you are on. That's how it is done. That's what foragers are for. That's what Gregor and his people and the Bloody Mummers are doing in ACoK in the Riverlands. But you can't do that in winter.

Roose might still win his war even if he and his forces are all defeated if he gets the chance to destroy all the food in Winterfell before leaving with enough food to return to the Dreadfort. Stannis provisions are dwindling already, and he cannot possibly feed all the survivors of the battles, especially if a decent portion of them defect to his side.

Manderly said nothing about going to war in winter as far as I recall. Where did you read anything about that? When he and Davos were talking it was still autumn.

It is pretty obvious that it does. I really suggest you go back and read the relevant Asha and Theon chapter covering the situation in Stannis' camp and at Winterfell. The overall feeling is depressing. People don't want this kind of thing. They might continue for a while if they have to but they won't begin a new war.

This post just leaves me exasperated, quite frankly. It's like we are talking past each other. Your focus is incredibly narrow. The Manderly argument is a perfect example of this. I went to some length to demonstrate how much food and resources there is at White Harbor, and you reply with an argument about how Manderly is at the point of death in Winterfell.

What is utterly clear is that you cannot see beyond the immediate aftermath of the Battle of Ice, to the extent that you are so blinkered by this that you view the current positions of the various role players in the North as greatly defining the future involvement of their forces. You go on about how much food Manderly brought to Winterfell. That is irrelevant in the bigger scheme of things, as House Manderly has vast supplies of food available at White Harbor.

You cannot seem to grasp that the Northern story goes on into the next books. Whether Manderly dies in Winterfell, or whether Roose's food supply in Winterfell is stretched or not, the story conitnues. The main White Harbor forces and resources will come into play whether Manderly and his 300 men die in Winterfell or not. An army of 10,000 men could gather at White Harbor in Dream of Spring, when the Battle of Ice is long forgotten and none of the Boltons or Stannis are in the picture anymore.

But as I said, you are so blinkered in your determination that the Northern storyline must end imminently, that we are indeed talking past each other.

"Different roads sometimes lead to the same castle." And I believe the castle foreshadowed there is the one it all started at. Winterfell. I expect the Stark kids to unite at Winterfell again. But one finds himself 500 miles North of the Wall at the moment, the other is dead, at the Wall. Another is on the remote isle of Skagos, and another across the Narrow Sea, in Braavos. For them to all gather together at Winterfell will take at least another couple of books. So even at that point, Winterfell will be a central point in the story.

Clearly, the North will remain an active part of the plot until the end. And be travelled across extensively by many key roleplayers, right to the end.

[Lord Varys]

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This post just leaves me exasperated, quite frankly. It's like we are talking past each other. Your focus is incredibly narrow. The Manderly argument is a perfect example of this. I went to some length to demonstrate how much food and resources there is at White Harbor, and you reply with an argument about how Manderly is at the point of death in Winterfell.

Well, those things are somewhat interconnected, aren't they? Lord Wyman is leading some sort of conspiracy. His heir Wylis seemed rather broken during the few instances we saw him in enemy captivity. Is he going to continue Lord Wyman's schemes should he father die? I'm not so sure of that.

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What is utterly clear is that you cannot see beyond the immediate aftermath of the Battle of Ice, to the extent that you are so blinkered by this that you view the current positions of the various role players in the North as greatly defining the future involvement of their forces. You go on about how much food Manderly brought to Winterfell. That is irrelevant in the bigger scheme of things, as House Manderly has vast supplies of food available at White Harbor.

How vast those are we don't know, actually. Again, it is one thing to feed people in a harbor city where there is trade and you can import stuff and go fishing, and quite another to take all that stuff and ride to war in the middle of winter. How are they going to transport this stuff? On carts, dragging it through the snow?

The food at Winterfell will inevitably influence the survival of the men at Winterfell. And since Winterfell is right now in the middle of nowhere with White Harbor hundreds of leagues away food at White Harbor isn't going to help the people at Winterfell if they begin to starve. And as it happens most/all of the men in the North still willing to fight are at or near Winterfell right now.

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You cannot seem to grasp that the Northern story goes on into the next books. Whether Manderly dies in Winterfell, or whether Roose's food supply in Winterfell is stretched or not, the story conitnues. The main White Harbor forces and resources will come into play whether Manderly and his 300 men die in Winterfell or not. An army of 10,000 men could gather at White Harbor in Dream of Spring, when the Battle of Ice is long forgotten and none of the Boltons or Stannis are in the picture anymore.

And if you pray hard enough Rhaegar Targaryen might indeed come back from the dead.

The story grows organically. You cannot say something can happen a thousand pages from now. Sure it can. But it is very unlikely to happen if the situation right now and whatever we can guess the immediate future will bring based on the facts we currently precludes something of that sort from happening.

You throw out scenarios without properly thinking them through or explaining why the characters more or less acting like real people would do stuff like that.

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But as I said, you are so blinkered in your determination that the Northern storyline must end imminently, that we are indeed talking past each other.

I'm not saying the Northern story ends. I'm saying the Northern war story is going to end. That is a difference.

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

"Different roads sometimes lead to the same castle." And I believe the castle foreshadowed there is the one it all started at. Winterfell. I expect the Stark kids to unite at Winterfell again. But one finds himself 500 miles North of the Wall at the moment, the other is dead, at the Wall. Another is on the remote isle of Skagos, and another across the Narrow Sea, in Braavos. For them to all gather together at Winterfell will take at least another couple of books. So even at that point, Winterfell will be a central point in the story.

Well, I'm not holding my breath for a Stark reunion at Winterfell being an important plot point in and of itself. I also expect that to happen at the very end. The surviving Starks could witness the proper rebuilding of Winterfell and the inauguration of the new Lord of Winterfell, whoever that might be. And then we could have a sort of farewell scene mirroring the departure of the children back in AGoT. That would be a fitting ending for their story.

But Winterfell as a place where the action is going to be in the near future doesn't seem very likely to me. The Wall is important. They have to hold the Wall, not rebuild a castle they cannot hope to properly rebuild in the middle of winter.

The two castles Jon and Arya are talking about in the quote you gave were Castle Black and the Red Keep, by the way. Now, Jon is not unlikely to be at the Red Keep in the distant future, right? His way to the Red Keep goes via Castle Black, and black and red are the Targaryen colors, right?

46 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Clearly, the North will remain an active part of the plot until the end. And be travelled across extensively by many key roleplayers, right to the end.

And you know this how exactly?

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, those things are somewhat interconnected, aren't they? Lord Wyman is leading some sort of conspiracy. His heir Wylis seemed rather broken during the few instances we saw him in enemy captivity. Is he going to continue Lord Wyman's schemes should he father die? I'm not so sure of that.

How vast those are we don't know, actually. Again, it is one thing to feed people in a harbor city where there is trade and you can import stuff and go fishing, and quite another to take all that stuff and ride to war in the middle of winter. How are they going to transport this stuff? On carts, dragging it through the snow?

The food at Winterfell will inevitably influence the survival of the men at Winterfell. And since Winterfell is right now in the middle of nowhere with White Harbor hundreds of leagues away food at White Harbor isn't going to help the people at Winterfell if they begin to starve. And as it happens most/all of the men in the North still willing to fight are at or near Winterfell right now.

And if you pray hard enough Rhaegar Targaryen might indeed come back from the dead.

The story grows organically. You cannot say something can happen a thousand pages from now. Sure it can. But it is very unlikely to happen if the situation right now and whatever we can guess the immediate future will bring based on the facts we currently precludes something of that sort from happening.

You throw out scenarios without properly thinking them through or explaining why the characters more or less acting like real people would do stuff like that.

I'm not saying the Northern story ends. I'm saying the Northern war story is going to end. That is a difference.

Well, I'm not holding my breath for a Stark reunion at Winterfell being an important plot point in and of itself. I also expect that to happen at the very end. The surviving Starks could witness the proper rebuilding of Winterfell and the inauguration of the new Lord of Winterfell, whoever that might be. And then we could have a sort of farewell scene mirroring the departure of the children back in AGoT. That would be a fitting ending for their story.

But Winterfell as a place where the action is going to be in the near future doesn't seem very likely to me. The Wall is important. They have to hold the Wall, not rebuild a castle they cannot hope to properly rebuild in the middle of winter.

The two castles Jon and Arya are talking about in the quote you gave were Castle Black and the Red Keep, by the way. Now, Jon is not unlikely to be at the Red Keep in the distant future, right? His way to the Red Keep goes via Castle Black, and black and red are the Targaryen colors, right?

And you know this how exactly?

Fundamentally, we disagree on the importance of Winterfell. I think it will be the central point of the resistance to the Others, and will be rebuilt as a fortress before Winter reaches its peak intensity. It will be the key bullwark against the Others, for supernatural and symbolic reasons.

You, on the other hand, believe that it is on borrowed time, that its current ruined state will endure and in fact get worse very soon, and that it will be abandoned once the Others overrun the North.

So we have two very contrasting views on the future, which indeed shape our expectations of the plot. We shall have to see who got it right.

EDIT

In fact, if one is inclined to see a pattern, I find it noteworthy how Martin has gone to some lengths to weaken and depopulate the Northern half of the North, while showing the southern half of the North in sharp contrast to that.

He has effectively laid the groundwork for many of the more Northern Houses falling, while the frontline is drawn basically where Winterfell is. Note how the Bear Islanders, Umbers, Karstarks and Mountain clans have now all committed the largest part of their forces to the war. And if I am right, Skagos is soon to join them when Rickon brings their forces to the mainland.

By contrast, White Harbor, the Dreadfort, the Dustins and Ryswells etc. are all still in very good shape, and we can effectively see a scenario where the northern half of the North retreats to the southern half. With Winterfell becoming the new frontline and focal point of the plot, after the Wall has fallen.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Fundamentally, we disagree on the importance of Winterfell. I think it will be the central point of the resistance to the Others, and will be rebuilt as a fortress before Winter reaches its peak intensity. It will be the key bullwark against the Others, for supernatural and symbolic reasons.

I doubt the castle can be rebuilt now in winter, and there is little reason to do so. Not when the resources of the people should now be focused on the defense of the Wall. I also don't see how Winterfell could operate as some sort of key bulwark against the Others if it is just some castle. Only a few thousands of people could hole up in there and they would quickly starve for lack of food. The Others are in no need to attack them, they can just wait until they starve or freeze to death, only to rise and again and kill their fellow humans.

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You, on the other hand, believe that it is on borrowed time, that its current ruined state will endure and in fact get worse very soon, and that it will be abandoned once the Others overrun the North.

I actually never said that Winterfell would remain empty. Regardless whether Stannis or Roose take/keep it it will be manned, most likely. But it won't be a center of operations because it is hundreds of leagues away from the Wall.

Whether the people there will abandon it after the fall of the Wall I don't know. Could be. I'd abandon it in such a scenario. But perhaps some people stay there. Perhaps continuous blood sacrifices to the heart tree will enable Bran to create a ward to keep the Others and the wights out. But this isn't going to help many people and they won't be able to sacrifice people every day or week or so.

Perhaps the Others will just ignore the people in there for other reasons.

But I'm pretty sure the only way the Others can be slowed down or even stopped if you actually attack them (which you won't do while hiding/holing up in a castle - if you do that you have already decided that the enemy is too strong to be attacked openly).

I expect the Neck to play a crucial role in the slowing-down process. Zombie armies don't help you all that much if they are all stuck in a swamp.

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In fact, if one is inclined to see a pattern, I find it noteworthy how Martin has gone to some lengths to weaken and depopulate the Northern half of the North, while showing the southern half of the North in sharp contrast to that.

It is? So the Manderlys, Cerwyns, Tallharts, and Hornwoods didn't lose many men? Less men even then the Boltons, Karstarks, Umbers, and Mormonts? I don't think so. In fact, the clansmen seem to have lost almost none during Robb's war.

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

He has effectively laid the groundwork for many of the more Northern Houses falling, while the frontline is drawn basically where Winterfell is.

There won't be a 'front line' where Winterfell is. Winterfell is a castle in the middle of nowhere. Neither the geography nor any structures enable the people to create some sort of front line near Winterfell.

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Note how the Bear Islanders, Umbers, Karstarks and Mountain clans have now all committed the largest part of their forces to the war. And if I am right, Skagos is soon to join them when Rickon brings their forces to the mainland.

You have to keep in mind that people will die in the battles to come. Quite a lot of them, actually, if George is going to deliver on TWoW being a dark book. The Boltons won't go down easily.

Rickon might be accompanied by some Skagosi when he returns to the North, but I still don't see against whom they would go to war. Surely not against other Northmen unless the Boltons win.

22 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By contrast, White Harbor, the Dreadfort, the Dustins and Ryswells etc. are all still in very good shape, and we can effectively see a scenario where the northern half of the North retreats to the southern half. With Winterfell becoming the new frontline and focal point of the plot, after the Wall has fallen.

Again, all the people at Winterfell will bleed, and they will most likely bleed a lot. What remains then isn't going to be all that strong.

If what those reddit guys deciphered that piece from the Asha chapter correctly then Mors Umber's death makes it rather likely that his boys died with him. Hosteen Frey most likely didn't get to Mors without first having to kill a lot of his men. And once the Freys knew where they were it would have been pretty easy to butcher them all, winter or not. It was thousands of Freys against a few hundred Umbers.

[Free Northman Reborn]

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt the castle can be rebuilt now in winter, and there is little reason to do so. Not when the resources of the people should now be focused on the defense of the Wall. I also don't see how Winterfell could operate as some sort of key bulwark against the Others if it is just some castle. Only a few thousands of people could hole up in there and they would quickly starve for lack of food. The Others are in no need to attack them, they can just wait until they starve or freeze to death, only to rise and again and kill their fellow humans.

I actually never said that Winterfell would remain empty. Regardless whether Stannis or Roose take/keep it it will be manned, most likely. But it won't be a center of operations because it is hundreds of leagues away from the Wall.

Whether the people there will abandon it after the fall of the Wall I don't know. Could be. I'd abandon it in such a scenario. But perhaps some people stay there. Perhaps continuous blood sacrifices to the heart tree will enable Bran to create a ward to keep the Others and the wights out. But this isn't going to help many people and they won't be able to sacrifice people every day or week or so.

Perhaps the Others will just ignore the people in there for other reasons.

But I'm pretty sure the only way the Others can be slowed down or even stopped if you actually attack them (which you won't do while hiding/holing up in a castle - if you do that you have already decided that the enemy is too strong to be attacked openly).

I expect the Neck to play a crucial role in the slowing-down process. Zombie armies don't help you all that much if they are all stuck in a swamp.

It is? So the Manderlys, Cerwyns, Tallharts, and Hornwoods didn't lose many men? Less men even then the Boltons, Karstarks, Umbers, and Mormonts? I don't think so. In fact, the clansmen seem to have lost almost none during Robb's war.

There won't be a 'front line' where Winterfell is. Winterfell is a castle in the middle of nowhere. Neither the geography nor any structures enable the people to create some sort of front line near Winterfell.

You have to keep in mind that people will die in the battles to come. Quite a lot of them, actually, if George is going to deliver on TWoW being a dark book. The Boltons won't go down easily.

Rickon might be accompanied by some Skagosi when he returns to the North, but I still don't see against whom they would go to war. Surely not against other Northmen unless the Boltons win.

Again, all the people at Winterfell will bleed, and they will most likely bleed a lot. What remains then isn't going to be all that strong.

If what those reddit guys deciphered that piece from the Asha chapter correctly then Mors Umber's death makes it rather likely that his boys died with him. Hosteen Frey most likely didn't get to Mors without first having to kill a lot of his men. And once the Freys knew where they were it would have been pretty easy to butcher them all, winter or not. It was thousands of Freys against a few hundred Umbers.

Now we get into tactics against the Others. How to attack them, as you say. Very well. Let's do that.

I have stated it before. Humans are not vulnerable to the Others during the day. Only at night. So at night, you want to be behind strong walls. Fortified keeps from where you can repell slow walking, lumbering hordes of the dead.

And then, come dawn, you open your gates and ride forth, burning corpses whereever you find them. The wights don't move fast. So they will not have gone far before falling dead when the sun comes up. So you burn them all, for miles around. Then you retreat back into your castle come nightfall.

That will reduce the undead numbers in your region dramatically. Furthermore, your skinchangers (of which we now have close to a dozen) can scout for scores of miles around your keep in raven or hawk form, looking for large gatherings of corpses. And then your men can venture forth at dawn to go and burn them. Imagine having Bran at Winterfell. He can scout for hundreds of miles across the North, seeking out slow moving wight armies. And then notify the men at Karhold, or the Last Hearth or the Dreadfort (whichever is closest) to ride forth and burn them during the daytime.

And again, if you want to transport food from say White Harbor to Winterfell. You scout the lands for dead hordes. And send men to burn them during the day. Then, when the land is cleared of any dead host, you send your wagon trains or sleds or pack horses forth, to start the journey. Any small remaining numbers of dead that remain in the area can be dealt with even if you have to build a palisade with watchfires every night.

And if a large horde is gathered by the Others to try and intercept your force, well, Bran will know in advance, and you will be able to send men to burn it as it lies dormant during the day.

These are the types of strategies I see in the Northern fightback against the Others, after the Wall has fallen. A very dynamic, action packed, (yet dark and terrifying) conflict zone with no fixed front line, but scores of strongholds and castles that serve as waypoints for travelling between one region and the next.

As for the Neck. It provides no real defense against the Others. Because they will not need to march a wight army across to the South. They just need a handful of individual Others to slip through the frozen wilderness and raise dead armies directly in the South. No need to try and fight a costly battle down the causeway. There is far more dead meat to raise in the densely packed South in any case. A larger army can be raised there overnight, than can be marched down the Neck with great difficulty.

And in the South the Northern tactics would not work as well. Because there are no skinchangers, no greenseer, and far more densely packed dead corpses for the Others to raise into armies.

That's why Winterfell will be the heart of the resistance. Because Bran will be based there, in its godswood, and he will form the centre or the entire human intelligence network against the Others.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I have stated it before. Humans are not vulnerable to the Others during the day. Only at night.

That is not yet proven. They only seem to show up at night as of yet. Perhaps that's going to change later.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So at night, you want to be behind strong walls. Fortified keeps from where you can repell slow walking, lumbering hordes of the dead.

In principle no bad idea. I think people should try to do that. And it should help quite a bit in the beginning of the war against the Others

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And then, come dawn, you open your gates and ride forth, burning corpses whereever you find them.

That is an unrealistic scenario for a number of reasons.

1. Again, it is winter. Have you ever tried to burn a corpse that is covered in snow? I don't think so. Corpses don't burn easily even if they are not covered in snow.

2. The wildlings most likely tried something of that sort. Hey, the dead only come at night so let's look for them during the day. Obviously that's not a successful tactic, possibly because the Others hide them far too well for people to find them easily. They only wights that were ever found to our knowledge where those the Others wanted to be found.

3. We know that the days grow shorter in winter. They already did do that in Bran's chapters, and that trend is going to affect the entire world. It is called 'the Long Night' not 'the Long Winter', after all. If the sun is only up for 3-6 hours people won't be able to do anything of this sort, not to mention what might happen if the sun no longer rises at all (that this might happen has been suggested in Mel's chapters where she thanks R'hllor for allowing the sun to rise the next day).

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The wights don't move fast. So they will not have gone far before falling dead when the sun comes up. So you burn them all, for miles around. Then you retreat back into your castle come nightfall.

That would make sense if the wights only tried to take your castle each night and allow you to repel them. But what if the wights only show up your door to overwhelm you then and there by sending an insane amount of wights against you? Say, 5,000 for a garrison of 50?

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That will reduce the undead numbers in your region dramatically.

Definitely not.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Furthermore, your skinchangers (of which we now have close to a dozen) can scout for scores of miles around your keep in raven or hawk form, looking for large gatherings of corpses.

Where are those many skinchangers you seem to be seeing. Varamyr is dead. We have the Stark children and Borroq. That could work if they would hide in the open - which they apparently don't. Mance also had skinchangers. He would have tried to do that, too, and he failed.

It could also work in the night, by the way, when the wights actually seem to be moving, if a skinchanger could take possession of some owls.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And then your men can venture forth at dawn to go and burn them. Imagine having Bran at Winterfell. He can scout for hundreds of miles across the North, seeking out slow moving wight armies. And then notify the men at Karhold, or the Last Hearth or the Dreadfort (whichever is closest) to ride forth and burn them during the daytime.

No, he can't. See above. And even if that worked, there would be way too many wights and far too few people to do this kind of thing. Even with the North at its full strength this would have never thanks to the long distances the people would have to cover and the inability of the people to actually coordinate such attacks.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And again, if you want to transport food from say White Harbor to Winterfell. You scout the lands for dead hordes. And send men to burn them during the day. Then, when the land is cleared of any dead host, you send your wagon trains or sleds or pack horses forth, to start the journey. Any small remaining numbers of dead that remain in the area can be dealt with even if you have to build a palisade with watchfires every night.

That is really ridiculous. What about the weather going bad again? What about the Others themselves? What about the ice spiders? What about half your men dying in the night to rise immediately and kill you too?

Such adventures could work if the Northmen had thousands of red shirts to spare on silly missions.

You do know that Melisandre's vision of Hardhome suggests that they are all doomed up there, fires and burning arrows and palisades or not. When the Others really come the fires go out, one by one.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And if a large horde is gathered by the Others to try and intercept your force, well, Bran will know in advance, and you will be able to send men to burn it as it lies dormant during the day.

Right, because you are as movable as superman in the middle of snow and bad weather. You do recall that the wights hide under fallen snow (and possibly elsewhere), right?

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

These are the types of strategies I see in the Northern fightback against the Others, after the Wall has fallen. A very dynamic, action packed, (yet dark and terrifying) conflict zone with no fixed front line, but scores of strongholds and castles that serve as waypoints for travelling between one region and the next.

That would work if were talking about a densely populated area about the size of the Crownlands in the middle of summer in our times and with our weaponry. Then they would stand a chance. 

You are aware that only a small percentage of people in Westeros have access to a castle environment, right? Even if they cramped 10-10% of the entire population into those castles (and the rest into those smaller keeps, holdfasts, and watchtowers they have) then the other 80-90% would still become all wights, sooner or later.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Neck. It provides no real defense against the Others. Because they will not need to march a wight army across to the South. They just need a handful of individual Others to slip through the frozen wilderness and raise dead armies directly in the South. No need to try and fight a costly battle down the causeway. There is far more dead meat to raise in the densely packed South in any case. A larger army can be raised there overnight, than can be marched down the Neck with great difficulty.

That might be true. But then, the Neck is a magical region of great natural heat and might still harbor some Children of the Forest. We have to wait and see. They and the crannogmen could create some wards or other magics trapping the Others in the North. I don't think something of that sort would hold them back forever but it could have some effect early on.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And in the South the Northern tactics would not work as well. Because there are no skinchangers, no greenseer, and far more densely packed dead corpses for the Others to raise into armies.

That would only be true if they can only raise fresh corpses (which we don't know) and if there would not be a lot of dead in the battles in the North to come. I'm positive that the Others will get quite a decent share of dead Northmen for their ranks. In combinations with the tens of thousands they should get at Hardhome (in addition to the unknown number they already have) overwhelming the North shouldn't be all that great a challenge. 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That's why Winterfell will be the heart of the resistance. Because Bran will be based there, in its godswood, and he will form the centre or the entire human intelligence network against the Others.

Aha. Well, then let's hope that the Others won't kill while he is on his walk back to Winterfell. Because, you know, they won't send everything they've got after him should he ever leave that cave.

Bran doesn't have to go to Winterfell. At Winterfell there is only one weirwood tree. Where he is right now there are scores of them above him. Why on earth would he ever exchange that power for whatever Winterfell's heart tree has to offer him? There is a reason why Bloodraven is in that cave and not somewhere else.

[Free Northman Reborn]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not yet proven. They only seem to show up at night as of yet. Perhaps that's going to change later.

In principle no bad idea. I think people should try to do that. And it should help quite a bit in the beginning of the war against the Others

That is an unrealistic scenario for a number of reasons.

1. Again, it is winter. Have you ever tried to burn a corpse that is covered in snow? I don't think so. Corpses don't burn easily even if they are not covered in snow.

2. The wildlings most likely tried something of that sort. Hey, the dead only come at night so let's look for them during the day. Obviously that's not a successful tactic, possibly because the Others hide them far too well for people to find them easily. They only wights that were ever found to our knowledge where those the Others wanted to be found.

3. We know that the days grow shorter in winter. They already did do that in Bran's chapters, and that trend is going to affect the entire world. It is called 'the Long Night' not 'the Long Winter', after all. If the sun is only up for 3-6 hours people won't be able to do anything of this sort, not to mention what might happen if the sun no longer rises at all (that this might happen has been suggested in Mel's chapters where she thanks R'hllor for allowing the sun to rise the next day).

That would make sense if the wights only tried to take your castle each night and allow you to repel them. But what if the wights only show up your door to overwhelm you then and there by sending an insane amount of wights against you? Say, 5,000 for a garrison of 50?

Definitely not.

Where are those many skinchangers you seem to be seeing. Varamyr is dead. We have the Stark children and Borroq. That could work if they would hide in the open - which they apparently don't. Mance also had skinchangers. He would have tried to do that, too, and he failed.

It could also work in the night, by the way, when the wights actually seem to be moving, if a skinchanger could take possession of some owls.

No, he can't. See above. And even if that worked, there would be way too many wights and far too few people to do this kind of thing. Even with the North at its full strength this would have never thanks to the long distances the people would have to cover and the inability of the people to actually coordinate such attacks.

That is really ridiculous. What about the weather going bad again? What about the Others themselves? What about the ice spiders? What about half your men dying in the night to rise immediately and kill you too?

Such adventures could work if the Northmen had thousands of red shirts to spare on silly missions.

You do know that Melisandre's vision of Hardhome suggests that they are all doomed up there, fires and burning arrows and palisades or not. When the Others really come the fires go out, one by one.

Right, because you are as movable as superman in the middle of snow and bad weather. You do recall that the wights hide under fallen snow (and possibly elsewhere), right?

That would work if were talking about a densely populated area about the size of the Crownlands in the middle of summer in our times and with our weaponry. Then they would stand a chance. 

You are aware that only a small percentage of people in Westeros have access to a castle environment, right? Even if they cramped 10-10% of the entire population into those castles (and the rest into those smaller keeps, holdfasts, and watchtowers they have) then the other 80-90% would still become all wights, sooner or later.

That might be true. But then, the Neck is a magical region of great natural heat and might still harbor some Children of the Forest. We have to wait and see. They and the crannogmen could create some wards or other magics trapping the Others in the North. I don't think something of that sort would hold them back forever but it could have some effect early on.

That would only be true if they can only raise fresh corpses (which we don't know) and if there would not be a lot of dead in the battles in the North to come. I'm positive that the Others will get quite a decent share of dead Northmen for their ranks. In combinations with the tens of thousands they should get at Hardhome (in addition to the unknown number they already have) overwhelming the North shouldn't be all that great a challenge. 

Aha. Well, then let's hope that the Others won't kill while he is on his walk back to Winterfell. Because, you know, they won't send everything they've got after him should he ever leave that cave.

Bran doesn't have to go to Winterfell. At Winterfell there is only one weirwood tree. Where he is right now there are scores of them above him. Why on earth would he ever exchange that power for whatever Winterfell's heart tree has to offer him? There is a reason why Bloodraven is in that cave and not somewhere else.

To start with the last, Hodor is going to hold a door somewhere, which kind of means Bran is going to be there too, no doubt. Bran is leaving that cave.

As for the rest. You seem to view it as an all or nothing scenario. Either the Wall holds, or the North is overrun pretty much without any resistance. I'm saying the lessons learnt by Jon, Bran, Sam etc. are going to mean something. They are going to devise strategies to fight the Others. Not defeat them, or turn their threat into something insignificant, but to fight them, to set up resistance, to make it a real war, rather than a rout.

In the first Long Night, the kingdoms of men fell gradually, one by one after years of war. And these were the petty kingdoms of the First Men. I envisage the same happening this time, only this time men will have access to the records of what happened the last time around (through Bran's complete knowledge of the past) and thus be able to hone their strategies optimally. And you will have a united North, rather than 30 petty kingdoms fighting on their own from the Neck to Thenn.

It is going to be a war. One that - if it extended for a decade long Winter - would see men worn down, starved, weakened and inevitably defeated. But one that, for the first two to three years, will be hard fought. Not a simple walk over by the Others.

As for the wildlings. They could not do it because they lack the technology, they lack the fortifications, they lack the organization, logistics and military capability of the Seven Kingdoms.

In my scenario this war will continue in the North long after the Others have crossed the Neck and started raising wights all over the South.

Ultimately it is Winter and starvation that is the Other's greatest weapon. Not overwhelming military force or magical winds that freeze men in their beds. In other words, it takes time. It is not an instant tsunami of death.

As for the number of holdfasts available. There are holdfasts scattered all over the North. Every village pretty much has one for the smallfolk to gather in during times of danger. Bran's tower at Queenscrown being an example.

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

To start with the last, Hodor is going to hold a door somewhere, which kind of means Bran is going to be there too, no doubt. Bran is leaving that cave.

No, it doesn't. Walder could hold a door pretty much anywhere, with Bran taking possession of him. In fact, since this whole thing is obviously some sort of time warp with Walder having the 'Hold the door' thing affecting his entire life, time-warping back from the moment of his death there is actually only scenario imaginable where this is going to happen - the weirwood gate beneath the Nightfort.

We know that weirwoods feel time differently than animals and humans. Walder can only feel something of that sort, too (unless we assume Bran actually reaches back in time and has him hold some door in the past, which doesn't make a lot of sense), if he sort of merges or gets entangled with a weirwood and its magic. Now, Meera and Walder could eventually return from the cave (along with Jojen who might die during the journey, or only later) being protected by Bran but still hunted by the Others. If they pass through the Wall at the Night Gate Walder might die holding that door, or merge with the the gate in the process of holding it, causing ripple effect through time resulting in him losing his mind and being obsessed with 'holding the door' throughout his entire life because while he is doing that he no longer perceives time as a human being but like a weirwood does.

At least that's my take on that one. In the show the whole thing doesn't make any sense as depicted. Why should the Walder in the past be effected by Bran taking possession of him in the present?

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the rest. You seem to view it as an all or nothing scenario. Either the Wall holds, or the North is overrun pretty much without any resistance.

The North won't be overrun. It won't even be able to resist the Others. It doesn't have much men left, and it is going to lose quite a few in the coming battles. The idea that war-torn country who lost more than half of it's entire strength in battle will have the strength left to fight a war against some ice demons and zombies without sufficient provisions and food in the middle of winter is just insane.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm saying the lessons learnt by Jon, Bran, Sam etc. are going to mean something.

They certainly mean something. They just don't have learned anything about how to deal with the Others.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They are going to devise strategies to fight the Others. Not defeat them, or turn their threat into something insignificant, but to fight them, to set up resistance, to make it a real war, rather than a rout.

There won't be a rout because there won't be a battle. The Others won't declare war on them. The Wall will fall and that will be the end of it, basically. And if the Wall falls a lot people are likely going to die there, too. Many Northmen of them who end up deciding to hold the Wall against the Others together with Stannis and/or Jon.

Who do you think is going to be as stupid as to think he or she can stop a force who has brought down the Wall? Some people who don't have enough food to survive winter? I don't think so.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In the first Long Night, the kingdoms of men fell gradually, one by one after years of war.

They did? Only if the Long Night was as long as you don't think it was. But that's beside the point. Last time the Others might have moved too early, or they might have had filled their own ranks while they were advancing (I'm talking Others here, not wights). That could have made them more vulnerable. In addition, back in those days there most likely were more greenseers and skinchangers around, not to mention the (good) Children of the Forest. Many people might actually have had obsidian weapons and so on, but they still could not stand against them.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And these were the petty kingdoms of the First Men. I envisage the same happening this time, only this time men will have access to the records of what happened the last time around (through Bran's complete knowledge of the past) and thus be able to hone their strategies optimally. And you will have a united North, rather than 30 petty kingdoms fighting on their own from the Neck to Thenn.

Bran's knowledge will certainly be crucial. But I don't think the Others can be defeated in battle. They are obviously designed to that they can win any direct battle, using the soldiers of the enemy against him. They can't be defeated that way. Not after their army has reached a critical mass. And they most likely will reach that mass before the Wall is going to fall.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is going to be a war. One that - if it extended for a decade long Winter - would see men worn down, starved, weakened and inevitably defeated. But one that, for the first two to three years, will be hard fought. Not a simple walk over by the Others.

The people will be sick of war and incapable to fight back in coordinated way long before the Others even make their move. Not just in the North, pretty much everywhere. 

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the wildlings. They could not do it because they lack the technology, they lack the fortifications, they lack the organization, logistics and military capability of the Seven Kingdoms.

What you laid out is easily enough done by a bunch of men with horses and the ability to make fire. Are you saying the wildlings can't do that? In addition they would also be very good hunters who know their lands. They should be much better at finding wights than the Northmen ever will be, especially in light of the fact that they actually have quite a few skinchangers among their ranks. The Northmen are not likely to work with such people.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In my scenario this war will continue in the North long after the Others have crossed the Neck and started raising wights all over the South.

Thinking about that - you are aware of the fact that the Others would have won the war in a week of so if they actually could raise wights all over the place after the fall of the Wall? Those people down south have no clue that the Others exist nor how you fight them or their undead thralls. If in one night the dead would rise everywhere in Westeros then most of those wights would emerge victorious, killing tens of thousands of people in one single night. Some people might find out how to kill a wight before they are killed in turn, but thanks to the medieval setting they won't be able to inform anybody of their knowledge. And fire isn't a great weapon against the wights, anyway.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ultimately it is Winter and starvation that is the Other's greatest weapon. Not overwhelming military force or magical winds that freeze men in their beds. In other words, it takes time. It is not an instant tsunami of death.

You are the one who suggested that the dead could rise all over the place. That's a tsunami of death. Winter and starvation could wear the people down long before the Others make their move. They are in no rush as far as we know. If they bide their time throughout the next book (which it looks they will) then war and winter will continue to do their work for them.

37 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the number of holdfasts available. There are holdfasts scattered all over the North. Every village pretty much has one for the smallfolk to gather in during times of danger. Bran's tower at Queenscrown being an example.

Honestly, how many such towers have our characters actually traveling the North seen? Not all that much. And besides, a tower isn't protection. The wights don't tire. Men do. Do you think twenty men can withstand the attack of a hundred wights in the cold of winter? They tire, the wights don't.