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Anyone still want to claim this is a book event?


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3 hours ago, JonSnowed said:

I used to think similar but the show has convinced me the pink letter is true and Stannis is defeated.

And GRRM has said the exact oppose site of that. 

Furthermore if the Pink Letter is true then D & D lied about Stannis burning Shireen and I think they wouldn't do that in one of their inside the episodes.

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33 minutes ago, Minuteman said:

The show has to truncate the story because screen time is limited and casts and sets are expensive. If Martin takes 3000 pages and two dozen superfluous characters to write that the Boltons are defeated in a battle, Roose dies, Ramsay dies, Stannis dies, Shireen dies, Jon and Sansa end up together in Winterfell with the latter bringing the Vale forces, while Davos fails to retrieve a living Rickon for Manderly rather than taking us through the endless intrigues of Martins' prose they just draw a straight line from A to B and make up enough story and combined plots to get us there while trimming everything else what real impact is there? They made a three hour move out of War and Peace for Pete's sake. The real story is what the White Walkers want and why and how or if they are defeated and I don't see the show departing much from that. The core characters are the Stark children, the Lannister siblings, and Dany and I doubt that their destinies will be different between the book and the show.

Right all the subletly of a brick through a window.

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1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

agreed 100%.  I don't get why people seem to think that Chekhov's Knights of the Vale will be staying in the Vale because "Winter".  They will not.  Sansa is there for a reason and the Knights of the Vale have been mentioned so many times for a reason.  I think Sansa's story has certainly been leading her back to Winterfell sooner rather than later, with the Knights of the Vale playing a key role.

Besides winter and the huge blizzard in the north, what about Moat Calin?  I believe it is actually defended in the books.

There are other places the Vale army could go besides "north."  The Vale not going to WF does not mean that they stay in the Vale.  What about the Riverlands?  What about the Crownlands after Aegon attacks?  What about defending against Dany?  Or siding with Dany?  What about defending against the mountain clans?  It is far more likely that if the Vale army is used it will be used closer to home.

Given winter, the blizzard, Moat Calin, the impending invasion by the White Walkers, Dany's impending invasion, I find it bizarre that so many people think the Vale army comes north in books.  I wonder if there are any Vegas odds on this.

I do agree that Sansa may eventually go back to WF, but not sooner rather than later.  What could she possibly do there during the White Walker invasion?  What purpose would she serve there during another Long Night except to die?  That would be pointless.  I think she will get back to WF eventually, but later rather than sooner - probably in ADOS (without the Vale knights).

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37 minutes ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

And GRRM has said the exact oppose site of that. 

Furthermore if the Pink Letter is true then D & D lied about Stannis burning Shireen and I think they wouldn't do that in one of their inside the episodes.

This is the one doubt that I have however it could be that Stannis is defeated but retreats again or Mel burns Shireen to bring him back somehow.

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I think this is a case of them trying to keep the show simple by giving book character stories to living characters on the show in order to limit the number of characters and give the existing show characters something to do when their book plot is going slowly.

My guess is that they've given Stannis' story line to Jon and Sansa, they've replaced the mountain clans with the wildlings, and they've replaced the Grand Northern Conspiracy with the arrival of the Vale knights.  If the bwb is part of the GNC in the books then that would explain why Dondarrion is taking the bwb north, and it would allow Sansa to take over the Lady Stoneheart story line.

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13 hours ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

This battle resulted in Rickon dead as we all now he is no near the Boltons right now and Davos is on his way to save him. The Umber (notably a man who died at the Red Wedding) were straight up villains. Jon Snow's motivation for this battle was saving Rickon but again like the books he is no where near them. The Vale saved everyone while in the books they are still way too wrapped up in their own politics right now to go North. Finally, Ramsay downfall is based on an event he never did in the books (rape Sansa). So with all this does anyone still think this was some future book event?

No, but it can hint to how will the battle of ice will go down.

The issue with this battle in the show is that Sansa, Littlefinger, Rickon and Davos are not in their book locations; The vale is too wrapped up in their issues, and it would be impossible to bring an army to the north without getting killed in Moat Cailin or raising the alarms all over the north.

But it's not that hard to picture Stannis attacking Winterfell and be on the brink of defeat when Jon and a bunch of wildlings appear to save the day and then they kill Roose and Ramsay. That could actually go down, as for the rest, well, it's utter bullshit since there's no wormhole between the vale and the heart of the north in the books as in the show.

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40 minutes ago, Stannistician said:

Besides winter and the huge blizzard in the north, what about Moat Calin?  I believe it is actually defended in the books.

There are other places the Vale army could go besides "north."  The Vale not going to WF does not mean that they stay in the Vale.  What about the Riverlands?  What about the Crownlands after Aegon attacks?  What about defending against Dany?  Or siding with Dany?  What about defending against the mountain clans?  It is far more likely that if the Vale army is used it will be used closer to home.

Given winter, the blizzard, Moat Calin, the impending invasion by the White Walkers, Dany's impending invasion, I find it bizarre that so many people think the Vale army comes north in books.  I wonder if there are any Vegas odds on this.

I do agree that Sansa may eventually go back to WF, but not sooner rather than later.  What could she possibly do there during the White Walker invasion?  What purpose would she serve there during another Long Night except to die?  That would be pointless.  I think she will get back to WF eventually, but later rather than sooner - probably in ADOS (without the Vale knights).

I don't recall who runs Moat Cailin at this point in the books- In name it is the Boltons after kicking the Ironborn out through Reek/Ramsay, but in practicality it might be the Crannogmen/House Reed who I seem to recall have always exercised a certain amount of control over Moat Cailin and who were inflicting casualties on the Ironborn and perhaps the Boltons.  In any case, I can't imagine anything more than a token force being garrisoned there.

You're entirely right the Vale could go somewhere else, but I think the evidence so far points to them going North.  First, I don't think the prophecy of the Ghost of High Heart referred to such a mundane matter as Sansa ripping apart Sweet Robin's doll in her snow castle.  I think Sansa will eventually be killing LF or being responsible for LF's death in Winterfell per the prophecy.  Second, Sansa is specifically made aware of Jon Snow being named LC of the Night's Watch by Myranda Royce- a fact that I think could become important.  Third, we know Ned fostered there and was like a son to Jon Arryn.  Fourth, we know many, if not a majority of the Lords of the Vale, wanted to support Robb Stark's rebellion.  Bronze Yohn Royce in particular seems to have closer ties with the Starks and the North and has visited Winterfell a few times.  We know he was agitating to support Robb's rebellion.  Fifth, I think Littlefinger still wants Winterfell as a personal thing, to further stick it to Ned Stark's memory.  These things lead me to believe the Vale will be riding North.  

But yes, it's entirely possible they do not go North.  It's all speculation here.     

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3 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

I don't recall who runs Moat Cailin at this point in the books- In name it is the Boltons after kicking the Ironborn out through Reek/Ramsay, but in practicality it might be the Crannogmen/House Reed who I seem to recall have always exercised a certain amount of control over Moat Cailin and who were inflicting casualties on the Ironborn and perhaps the Boltons.  In any case, I can't imagine anything more than a token force being garrisoned there.

You're entirely right the Vale could go somewhere else, but I think the evidence so far points to them going North.  First, I don't think the prophecy of the Ghost of High Heart referred to such a mundane matter as Sansa ripping apart Sweet Robin's doll in her snow castle.  I think Sansa will eventually be killing LF or being responsible for LF's death in Winterfell per the prophecy.  Second, Sansa is specifically made aware of Jon Snow being named LC of the Night's Watch by Myranda Royce- a fact that I think could become important.  Third, we know Ned fostered there and was like a son to Jon Arryn.  Fourth, we know many, if not a majority of the Lords of the Vale, wanted to support Robb Stark's rebellion.  Bronze Yohn Royce in particular seems to have closer ties with the Starks and the North and has visited Winterfell a few times.  We know he was agitating to support Robb's rebellion.  Fifth, I think Littlefinger still wants Winterfell as a personal thing, to further stick it to Ned Stark's memory.  These things lead me to believe the Vale will be riding North.  

But yes, it's entirely possible they do not go North.  It's all speculation here.     

All good points.  I just think Sansa's story of becoming a political player would be useless in the north before and during the WW invasion.  I could see her coming north after the WW have been dealt with as it would allow her to use whatever political skills she acquires throughout the story.  The Ghost of High Heart prophecy does give me pause though.  But there could still be some snow in WF in ADOS, after the WW have been dealt with.  Of course this assumes that the WW don't win.

I just want the damn book to come out already.  But speculating is fun. 

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Nope. I am far from a Mannis stan, but in the books he will win the Battle of Ice and take Winterfell. He'll destroy the Freys on the lake and with the help of Manderlies and/or GNC, he'll deceive the Boltons into complacency and take the castle with stealth. Of course, it will turn out that a few Others have quietly sneaked into the North in the meantime, so it will all be more or less for naught. Bodies of the fallen in the Battle of Ice will provide a seed for their undead host south of the Wall. When time comes for their main forces to break through, they'll achieve it by attacking the Wall both from the north and from the south.

Ressurected Jon's battles will be against the Others. The show clearly doesn't want to do too much with them, because of all the make-up and CGI, so of course they'd rather tread water and bring back all the plot-lines connected to infighting of the nobles that were previously discarded. And D&D cutting out most of the magic and prophecies doesn't help either. In the books there will be plenty for Jon to do without hogging the Winterfell plot-line. He was stabbed for a reason - to stop him from going in the wrong direction and letting the Wall fall too  quickly. He'll fall back on the castle eventully, during the long retreat before the onslaught of the Others. That's when Stannis will die and Jon will step up towards sole leadership of the living in the North.

Pitting Jon against Ramsey in the books doesn't make much sense, because tBoB isn't the evil genius of the show, and, more importantly, all other nobles hate his guts. They can hold their noses and follow Roose, but should he die, they'll all turn on Ramsey and he, while sly and cruel, just doesn't have the competence to keep the shaky coalition together. Nor would Freys have any stake in propping _him_ by threatening the hostages they hold. If the latter won't be freed by BwB during their transfer to currently leaderless Lannister forces, that is.

Nor does it make any sense for Sansa, LF and knights of the Vale to come north. Apart from the northmen themselves, only the fools and the desperate would conduct a winter war in Russia  in the North. In addition, the mountain passes out of the Vale are closed by snow and they'll have to go through Manderlies if they want to go north by ship. IMHO, if Sansa is supposed to re-build Winterfell, as her snow castle suggesets, it will happen after the Others are defeated.

The only 2 things that I have always felt would happen are: that Shireen will be burned - though possibly by Melisandre on the Wall, without Stannis's knowledge, and that Rickon would die at some point before reaching his majority, not necessarily by violence.

 

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2 hours ago, Stannistician said:

All good points.  I just think Sansa's story of becoming a political player would be useless in the north before and during the WW invasion.  I could see her coming north after the WW have been dealt with as it would allow her to use whatever political skills she acquires throughout the story.  The Ghost of High Heart prophecy does give me pause though.  But there could still be some snow in WF in ADOS, after the WW have been dealt with.  Of course this assumes that the WW don't win.

I just want the damn book to come out already.  But speculating is fun. 

haha yes.  I just want the freaking book to come out.  I feel bad for GRRM that he's sort of lost authority over the telling of his story, but damn I'm also angry and just want him to freaking finish these books.  It's been taking far too long.

And agreed, I really can't tell what is going to happen with the WW/North.  I've always felt as if the saying that a "Stark must always be in Winterfell" will have vital importance when the WW invasion starts...and I've just been waiting for so damn long for Ramsay/the Boltons/the Freys to get their comeuppance.  And it just seems as if Sansa's story is leading her North/towards Jon from my reading (but again could be completely wrong in my part, as it's all speculation).

28 minutes ago, Maia said:

Nope. I am far from a Mannis stan, but in the books he will win the Battle of Ice and take Winterfell. He'll destroy the Freys on the lake and with the help of Manderlies and/or GNC, he'll deceive the Boltons into complacency and take the castle with stealth. Of course, it will turn out that a few Others have quietly sneaked into the North in the meantime, so it will all be more or less for naught. Bodies of the fallen in the Battle of Ice will provide a seed for their undead host south of the Wall. When time comes for their main forces to break through, they'll achieve it by attacking the Wall both from the north and from the south.

Ressurected Jon's battles will be against the Others. The show clearly doesn't want to do too much with them, because of all the make-up and CGI, so of course they'd rather tread water and bring back all the plot-lines connected to infighting of the nobles that were previously discarded. And D&D cutting out most of the magic and prophecies doesn't help either. In the books there will be plenty for Jon to do without hogging the Winterfell plot-line. He was stabbed for a reason - to stop him from going in the wrong direction and letting the Wall fall too  quickly. He'll fall back on the castle eventully, during the long retreat before the onslaught of the Others. That's when Stannis will die and Jon will step up towards sole leadership of the living in the North.

Pitting Jon against Ramsey in the books doesn't make much sense, because tBoB isn't the evil genius of the show, and, more importantly, all other nobles hate his guts. They can hold their noses and follow Roose, but should he die, they'll all turn on Ramsey and he, while sly and cruel, just doesn't have the competence to keep the shaky coalition together. Nor would Freys have any stake in propping _him_ by threatening the hostages they hold. If the latter won't be freed by BwB during their transfer to currently leaderless Lannister forces, that is.

Nor does it make any sense for Sansa, LF and knights of the Vale to come north. Apart from the northmen themselves, only the fools and the desperate would conduct a winter war in Russia  in the North. In addition, the mountain passes out of the Vale are closed by snow and they'll have to go through Manderlies if they want to go north by ship. IMHO, if Sansa is supposed to re-build Winterfell, as her snow castle suggesets, it will happen after the Others are defeated.

The only 2 things that I have always felt would happen are: that Shireen will be burned - though possibly by Melisandre on the Wall, without Stannis's knowledge, and that Rickon would die at some point before reaching his majority, not necessarily by violence.

 

I was in 100% agreement with most of this pre-Season 5  I was really stunned by what happened with Stannis last year in the show as I was convinced he was winning the Battle of Ice.  The show killing him off so easily has made me revisit my assumption from before that he would win.  D & D have made wholesale major changes to GRRM's books, but I figured they had some kind of outline from him here that they were following.  You could be right.  It's entirely possible D & D made up this "Battle of the Bastards" because they thought it'd be better than Stannis v. Ramsay.  All of this could be a result from their decision last year to ditch Sansa's arc in the Vale and send her to Winterfell (something I honestly sympathized with and understood at first as I don't think Sansa alone in the Vale would have held viewers' interest).  I don't know.

Over time, I have come to appreciate that Ramsay has been built up as such a despicable villain, that I want a Stark to personally take him down for what he's done to Winterfell.  It just feels "wrong" to me that Stannis, an outsider who has nothing to do with Winterfell or the North would take him out with little Stark involvement (outside of Jon's helping hand from afar).  In short, as I said above, I feel as if a Stark needs to be in Winterfell for the WW invasion and I don't like the idea of Stannis running Winterfell.  

I can appreciate your position on the the Knights of the Vale coming North being irrational, as I've discussed, but again, I feel there are textual clues outside of what's been happening on the show to suggest that may happen.  

 

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41 minutes ago, Maia said:

Ressurected Jon's battles will be against the Others. The show clearly doesn't want to do too much with them, because of all the make-up and CGI, so of course they'd rather tread water and bring back all the plot-lines connected to infighting of the nobles that were previously discarded. And D&D cutting out most of the magic and prophecies doesn't help either. In the books there will be plenty for Jon to do without hogging the Winterfell plot-line. He was stabbed for a reason - to stop him from going in the wrong direction and letting the Wall fall too  quickly. He'll fall back on the castle eventully, during the long retreat before the onslaught of the Others. That's when Stannis will die and Jon will step up towards sole leadership of the living in the North.

 

This is a very good guess and points again at Jon being dead long into TWOW. It would make sense why they had him take over Stannis's story like how how he went to Hardhome.

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13 hours ago, JonSnowed said:

The battle is definitely a book event but it will play out differently for sure, for example I don't expect Rickon to be there but would not be surprised if Sansa and the Vale play a part (reasoning will be different mind).

It probably will play out at and around Stannis' position, the Freys being the Boltons and the Manderlies the Vale. What happens after that? I couldn't fathom. A bone chilling winter has fallen in the North. The Cold saps the Strength from you in very little time. How much fight would actually be in these men?

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38 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

  It just feels "wrong" to me that Stannis, an outsider who has nothing to do with Winterfell or the North would take him out with little Stark involvement (outside of Jon's helping hand from afar).  In short, as I said above, I feel as if a Stark needs to be in Winterfell for the WW invasion and I don't like the idea of Stannis running Winterfell.  

I can appreciate your position on the the Knights of the Vale coming North being irrational, as I've discussed, but again, I feel there are textual clues outside of what's been happening on the show to suggest that may happen.  

 

It felt wrong that LF killed Joffery over a Stark but that isn't what George does, he goes for realism and realism would be the guy who has been built up as "the best military mind in Westeros" winning this fight over Jon and a group of Wildlings

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I think the basic misunderstanding here is that you are expecting "book events" to go exactly as they go in the book.

If you're looking for thos you won't find any left.

Still the battle will take place after Stannis' battle and will outcome in a similar way (Starks retaking Winterfell with the Vale's army help).

Everything else is a side dish that the show runners have shuffled up a bit.

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Agreed. Its become obvious to me for the following reasons:

1) Grrm sees Stannis completely different to D &D so hes not going to warp the plot to get rid of him

2) Its super rudundent to stretch this out for 1.5 books only to go "LOL JUST KIDDING" thats a DandD tactic grrm is about making the plot a result of the characters

3) This whole burn Shireen business cant happen if he loses and dies otherwise dand lied

4) Prophecy has more of a role to play with being a false AA

5) If he and his army die its bye 70% of the north's reserve forces and they'll literally be no one left 

6) The book exclusive twist has a chance of involving him

7) He has actual Northern support whilst other northmen and Davos work to reinstall a Stark because of their loyalty and love (Unlike the show)

8) Its Winter so this is a one way trip, win or die.

9) Relistening to theon's ADWD chapters reminded me of how much tension and frustration is between Stannis' arrival and Roose's concerns

10) Book Ramsay is not a main character or big series villain hes there to further Theon's story and is no where near as competent or plot warping as show Ramsay was

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I think that Stannis is very likely to win the Battle of Ice and don't see Jon or Sansa having anything to do with the Bolton's demise, because honestly their arcs have nothing to do with the Boltons.  Yes Jon gets that pink letter, but that might not have even been sent by Ramsay.  There is however another child of Winterfell who does have a significant tie to the Bolton's who was last seen with Stannis.  Yes I'm referring to our resident Prince of Winterfell, Theon Greyjoy.  To me I think that Jon and Sansa are taking the role that Stannis and Theon fill in the books (very loosely, mind you).

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2 hours ago, Yin & Yang said:

I think it would be terrible storytelling from GRRM if, after all this time, and all the agony felt by the Stark children, that Stannis took back Winterfell, rather than them. 

On the contrary, it would be vintage GRRM. Particularly because it will be a "false spring" as it were, since I fully expect Winterfell to be abandoned again as humans fall back before the Others. In the books, there are hints that climactic battle(s) against them will happen in the Riverlands, but in the show, D&D clearly intend to follow that leaked early outline of Martin's and have the final battle happen at Winterfell. They'll skip the Long Night too, no doubt, and make it, like, solar eclipse during the peak of the fighting. 

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