Dothrakis in Westeros

[tugela]

On ‎6‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 0:11 PM, OrcusOfUndeath said:

Again I won't quote, it becomes very unreadable.

The Red Waste is a harsher desert, but the Dothraki Sea is not a desert. It has water and whole lot of grass. Everything a horse needs.

On record the Dornish did march a large army across the desert, but only once and it was 10.000 people. Dany is bringing more than 11 times that. I assumed they'd have guidance, but there are just no resources in the desert to support such a huge number of people for days or even weeks. This doesn't take into account at the very least tens of thousands of horses. Getting that many people through any desert is hell. I'm not saying half of them would die in the desert (but later in the winter), but the loses could be crippling. And now the Tyrells can't provide food immediately because it will be obvious that something is up.

Also the majority of fighting of Martells against the Tyrells was done in the Dornish marches which Martells held, which is today in the Stormlands, not in the Dorne itself.

During the war the Targaryens entered the desert fully equipped by Tyrells with water and food and mainly had infantry and dragons and their conquest lasted a Summer (reasonable to assume at least 5 years). They relied so heavily upon dragons that one was actually killed in Dorne.

The reason why the Knight of the Vale cut down the Boltons as easily as they did was because they flanked them and they were heavy cavalry charging into winded infantry. These are special circumstances. Furthermore the knights of the Vale are heavy cavalry and the Dothraki are the lightest cavalry you can imagine.

Dany never contacted the Iron Bank and at this point its too late to bring significant mercenary companies into play (some could arrive in time). But this would put Westeros even further in debt, thus damning the realm even more for Dany's conquest. 

Meereen is not a great place to pull resources from because it was just nearly razed to the ground and is also far away from Westeros.

In the end I'm not saying the Tyrell stores won't feed them. They'll definitely feed them, but after they are done there won't be enough left for the winter, because they are already not totally full. You have to feed 100k+ people and at least half as, and potentially just as many horses. The stores are going to be strained to hell, there's no doubt about that, especially if they have to feed Martells as well.

My main point here is that the Dothraki will not be under any logical circumstances able to keep their horses for long. And dothraki without forces are not nearly as effective as mounted Dothraki. They'll have them at the beginning of the invasion and that's it. To further attempt to feed them would mean taking food from the mouth of smallfolk. Not to mention they are already ineffective against armor. Slashing weapons will do little damage to armored opponents. The numbers are impressive, that's true and probably on numbers alone will they conquer southern and some of central Westeros. That's when the winter will hit them and they'll start losing Dothraki by the tens of thousands.

 

 

 

 

They have plenty of ships, so they could use Dorne as a staging post and move along the coast to more hospitable environments. They could go east up along the Stormllands and attack via the Blackwater, as Stannis did, or they could move to the Reach (which is the breadbasket of Westeros btw) and attack from that direction (as Renly's forces were planning to do). So they have plenty of options. The big advantage of Dorne is that it is a well protected base that they can land at and prepare without being harassed by a counterattack. The desert is their fortress wall.

The reason the Vale cut down the Boltons so easily is because they were unprepared as they were not expecting cavalry. Infantry fighting other infantry uses different tactics than when fighting cavalry. Against infantry you form line since that is the most effective use of your arms offensively, but against cavalry you form box (since that maximizes your defensive capability). The Boltons were caught in the open in line formation, which allowed the Vale cavalry to flank them and cut them down. The Vale forces came down on the flank of the line, which minimized the number of Boltons capable of defending, and then swept along it. These are pretty traditional tactics in the days when mounted cavalry were used in the main battle.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

Attacking King's Landing turned out to be a bad idea for Stannis. They'd have the best chance of invading the Stormlands first, but they wouldn't be provisioned for a prolonged siege. They'd have to take everything quickly. As for Dorne it does protect them .... while they are at Sunspear. And it won't protect them for long. Sunspear can't sustain that many people for days let along weeks. But as I said the Reach can't do any preparatory steps because they'd very likely be found out and Mace is still in King's Landing and has no idea anything is going on. Getting the 100k+ soldiers through the desert is the issue. So by far their best strat is landing in Stormlands. But as I said the horses won't last. They'll have to slaughter them for food at some point or just leave them. They won't be able to provide food and water for such an insane amount of horses. And then there's the winter ...

Secondly, I absolutely agree that's the reason why the Vale knights cut the Boltons down. That's what I basically said.

[Cron]

Yeah, good stuff in this thread.

Not only would there likely be a big "culture clash," but the clothing issues (b/c winter is here), the horse transportation issues (HOW could they possibly have brought all those horses on those ships???) and other matters seem highly problematic.

PLUS, how many Dothraki does Dany have with her, anyway?  My understanding is that when she wiped out the Khals, she became leader of ALL the Dothraki.   Well, myunderstanding is that that would be HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people (all the combined hordes).  Did she take them all, or just the best warriors, or what?

[OrcusOfUndeath]

On 6/30/2016 at 5:52 PM, Cron said:

Yeah, good stuff in this thread.

Not only would there likely be a big "culture clash," but the clothing issues (b/c winter is here), the horse transportation issues (HOW could they possibly have brought all those horses on those ships???) and other matters seem highly problematic.

PLUS, how many Dothraki does Dany have with her, anyway?  My understanding is that when she wiped out the Khals, she became leader of ALL the Dothraki.   Well, myunderstanding is that that would be HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people (all the combined hordes).  Did she take them all, or just the best warriors, or what?

 

I have some data here. In 1174 an Italo-Norman force attacked Alexandria with 1,500 horses transported on 36 tarides. So by my calculations Dany would need about 2500 such ships to transport horses alone. I found another number claiming that ships with two decks could carry up to 100 horses. If her entire fleet consisted of two decked ships she would still need 1000 such ships to carry the horses and an additional 100 for horse food and water. I have not found a number of more than 3000 horses being transported over sea. This is of course assuming she doesn't have more than 100.000 mounted Dothraki.

So if I see 100.000 mounted Dothraki next season I'm gonna start asking some questions.

[Mayor of Winterfell]

The show doesn't care about logistcs. We will never see where the her armee gets the warm clothes from. They will just wear them.Remember that all ships in Danys fleet have the same sails ? Where did these come from ?

I don't believe we will see countless battles with the Dothraki in the Riverlands, and the same with the WW in the north. I think Dany sacks King's Landing, about that time the wall comes down, Sansa asks for help and than Dany smashes her forces against the Others / WW. Here she will loose everything but her naked life. But she has a new friend now

 

 

 

[Cron]

7 hours ago, OrcusOfUndeath said:

 

I have some data here. In 1174 an Italo-Norman force attacked Alexandria with 1,500 horses transported on 36 tarides. So by my calculations Dany would need about 2500 such ships to transport horses alone. I found another number claiming that ships with two decks could carry up to 100 horses. If her entire fleet consisted of two decked ships she would still need 1000 such ships to carry the horses and an additional 100 for horse food and water. I have not found a number of more than 3000 horses being transported over sea. This is of course assuming she doesn't have more than 100.000 mounted Dothraki.

So if I see 100.000 mounted Dothraki next season I'm gonna start asking some questions.

Hey, great stuff, great work!

I really enjoyed reading it, and discussing logistics of things like that.

Thanks!

[OrcusOfUndeath]

On 7/5/2016 at 4:43 AM, Cron said:

Hey, great stuff, great work!

I really enjoyed reading it, and discussing logistics of things like that.

Thanks!

Thanks! I'd just like to add that they'd also have to refill on horse food and water at least once (I assume Volantis or Lys)

[Aryakills]

I figure they'll be kept out of cities,  much like the mountain clans Tyrion had.

Win the throne and send the majority back to Essos with the statue  of Joffery in tow.

[Rhaegun]

On 6/27/2016 at 8:36 AM, OrcusOfUndeath said:

Dothraki will be ineffectual in Westeros, 

You mean like the hordes of Central Asia were ineffectual against the Eastern Europeans?  Oh wait, they obliterated everything in their path.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

On 7/12/2016 at 0:55 PM, Rhaegun said:

You mean like the hordes of Central Asia were ineffectual against the Eastern Europeans?  Oh wait, they obliterated everything in their path.

That's not an apt comparison. A bit less than half of their army was not light cavalry, but even they wore light armor. They used massive siege engines and had sophisticated strategy. And they used a small hardy breed of horses that could survive the winter (evolved in colder climates) and ate less than normal horses (but they were slower than conventional horses). Even so, the horde had to move really fast lest the horses starve. Specifically because of all these traits they were so successful in raiding Europe. Furthermore the Mongol conquest of Europe happened during the Medieval Warm Period, a period of warm climate the lands have not experienced in potentially thousands of years prior which really helped out in keeping the horses alive and well. What the Dothraki are coming in is the exact opposite of that.

They brought a large army into Europe but in the end could not hold onto any significant part of it. They held parts of Eastern Europe and were eventually driven back. Also they employed infantry units to be used as shields made up from previously conquered areas. They also made use of gunpowder, axes, maces, lances (for piercing armor) and scimitars. In addition they also gathered intelligence about areas they were about to invade years in advance. Technology (as well as sophisticated battle tactics and scouting and spying) that Mongols possessed was one of the primary movers of their expanse into Europe.

At a glance Dothraki (and the circumstances surrounding them) and the Mongols may appear to be similar, but they are vastly different.

[Rhaegun]

On 7/13/2016 at 8:39 PM, OrcusOfUndeath said:

At a glance Dothraki (and the circumstances surrounding them) and the Mongols may appear to be similar, but they are vastly different.

George R.R. Martin, 

Quote

The Dothraki were actually fashioned as an amalgam of a number of steppe and plains cultures... Mongols and Huns, certainly, but also Alans, Sioux, Cheyenne, and various other Amerindian tribes... seasoned with a dash of pure fantasy.From Not a Blog

 

[Rhaegun]

On 7/4/2016 at 6:45 PM, Mayor of Winterfell said:

Remember that all ships in Danys fleet have the same sails ? Where did these come from 

If you review the dialog from "The Winds of Winter", you'll hear mention of the sails being painted.  Also, there are other sails in the fleet besides Targaryen sails (from Dorne and the Reach).

[rhoynestar]

Some really good points here about the projected impact of Dothraki forces in Westeros. Some quick additions:

I do believe controlling the Dothraki from pillaging, sacking and generally following their previous way of life is going to be very difficult for Dany. Yara(Asha) agreed to give up the Ironborn way of life as a condition for Dany's protection and alliance against Euron. A much greater incentive to change your behavior, and even so it will be difficult for Yara to force this down her followers' throats (Yara will have to sell it very very well). The Dothraki, by contrast, are not facing some terrible enemy -- they are voluntarily following Dany because they were supposedly awed by the might of her dragons and viewed her as a mighty conqueror. They will be extraordinarily hard pressed to follow commands to change their way of life. Riders in a khalasar follow a khal (Dany) because they expect spoils, and their traditional hierarchy demands they follow the strongest warrior -- who supposedly protects their way of life. Even as Khal Drogo's khaleesi her efforts to control raping among Drogo's riders was met with discontent. If she's denying them their spoils and upending their traditions they may lose the will to obey her, and even though the show may try for it, it will be hard to be convincing if they just bow to her will.

On 2016. 7. 14. at 9:39 AM, OrcusOfUndeath said:

At a glance Dothraki (and the circumstances surrounding them) and the Mongols may appear to be similar, but they are vastly different.

I'm sure the Dothraki are less Mongols than an amalgamation of many different groups and tribes (appearances, customs and social structures often model AmerIndian tribes, and there are many steppes groups to consider). As you point out, the conditions and weapons/technology for a successful invasion are absent in the show, and certainly the Dothraki hordes will be less successful than say the Mongol invasion.

 However, the invasion of Westeros by a horde of Dothraki tribesmen -- basically extraordinarily alien to Westeros -- does have several cultural parallels to the Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe and the Huns, two campaigns rather famed among locals for brutality in tactics (which is somewhat different from success). The long progression of events involved in several waves of Mongol invasion were often seen as particularly brutal for the conquered and often led to narratives of culture clash, such as occasional nationalist accounts of "Europeans against the barbaric Mongols, etc" in much later years. Will the Dothraki integrate in the end? And even if they do, will Dany be able to overcome the repercussions of this culture clash?

Regarding Dothraki survival in Westeros, we do have a few isolated cases of Dothraki in Westeros from the books -- sorry to bring the books in, but they mention Dothraki sellswords here and there. Granted it was not winter, but the Dothraki do seem to adapt somewhat. No telling where Dany will land, it looks as if they will have plenty of opportunities to wreak havoc, and remain a legend in local imaginations, in southern lands before potentially dying off en masse in the frozen North. 

Finally the more important implication is: how is all this is going to affect Dany's popularity and prospects of rule? Will a conqueror at the head of a distinctively foreign army from Essos be able to ingratiate herself with the locals? I can see her becoming massively unpopular and triggering some sort of backlash if this situation overplays itself. GRRM's original book synopsis clearly references "a Dothraki invasion of Westeros." Wondering what the implications will be for Dany down the road. 

Just wanted to say really liked this discussion here -- I actually put up another post on the exact same topic without realizing this one existed (search didn't bring this up, deleting it now) . Would love to hear thoughts.

[OrcusOfUndeath]

On 7/18/2016 at 0:49 PM, Rhaegun said:

George R.R. Martin, 

 

So as Martin said they are a mix of everything mentioned there. The key word here is BASED on Mongols and Huns and all of the others. We have clearly proven they are not really that similar to Mongols. The idea of mounted archer horde is mainly at the heart of it. And at a glance they are similar. I posted reasons why they were quite different.

On 7/18/2016 at 1:27 PM, rhoynestar said:

Some really good points here about the projected impact of Dothraki forces in Westeros. Some quick additions:

I do believe controlling the Dothraki from pillaging, sacking and generally following their previous way of life is going to be very difficult for Dany. Yara(Asha) agreed to give up the Ironborn way of life as a condition for Dany's protection and alliance against Euron. A much greater incentive to change your behavior, and even so it will be difficult for Yara to force this down her followers' throats (Yara will have to sell it very very well). The Dothraki, by contrast, are not facing some terrible enemy -- they are voluntarily following Dany because they were supposedly awed by the might of her dragons and viewed her as a mighty conqueror. They will be extraordinarily hard pressed to follow commands to change their way of life. Riders in a khalasar follow a khal (Dany) because they expect spoils, and their traditional hierarchy demands they follow the strongest warrior -- who supposedly protects their way of life. Even as Khal Drogo's khaleesi her efforts to control raping among Drogo's riders was met with discontent. If she's denying them their spoils and upending their traditions they may lose the will to obey her, and even though the show may try for it, it will be hard to be convincing if they just bow to her will.

I'm sure the Dothraki are less Mongols than an amalgamation of many different groups and tribes (appearances, customs and social structures often model AmerIndian tribes, and there are many steppes groups to consider). As you point out, the conditions and weapons/technology for a successful invasion are absent in the show, and certainly the Dothraki hordes will be less successful than say the Mongol invasion.

 However, the invasion of Westeros by a horde of Dothraki tribesmen -- basically extraordinarily alien to Westeros -- does have several cultural parallels to the Mongol invasion of Eastern Europe and the Huns, two campaigns rather famed among locals for brutality in tactics (which is somewhat different from success). The long progression of events involved in several waves of Mongol invasion were often seen as particularly brutal for the conquered and often led to narratives of culture clash, such as occasional nationalist accounts of "Europeans against the barbaric Mongols, etc" in much later years. Will the Dothraki integrate in the end? And even if they do, will Dany be able to overcome the repercussions of this culture clash?

Regarding Dothraki survival in Westeros, we do have a few isolated cases of Dothraki in Westeros from the books -- sorry to bring the books in, but they mention Dothraki sellswords here and there. Granted it was not winter, but the Dothraki do seem to adapt somewhat. No telling where Dany will land, it looks as if they will have plenty of opportunities to wreak havoc, and remain a legend in local imaginations, in southern lands before potentially dying off en masse in the frozen North. 

Finally the more important implication is: how is all this is going to affect Dany's popularity and prospects of rule? Will a conqueror at the head of a distinctively foreign army from Essos be able to ingratiate herself with the locals? I can see her becoming massively unpopular and triggering some sort of backlash if this situation overplays itself. GRRM's original book synopsis clearly references "a Dothraki invasion of Westeros." Wondering what the implications will be for Dany down the road. 

Just wanted to say really liked this discussion here -- I actually put up another post on the exact same topic without realizing this one existed (search didn't bring this up, deleting it now) . Would love to hear thoughts.

 

I think I recall something like that Dothraki mercenary band but were the they not a band that counted a few hundred people? Maybe not even that? And integrated in a full Westeros army as what I'd imagine to be a support unit of mounted archers mainly for chasing down fleeing enemies and initial barrages, because historically such units were used for that. So I don't think we can really take that as a model for a full scale invasion.

On another note, the Mongols also had the advantage of being able to comparatively easily reinforce by lands they held. They also had the advantage of fighting in parts of Europe that had expanses of grassland such as Sarmatic Plain and Pannonia. Also if you take a look at the map you can easily trace the Mongol invasion by following the Eurasian Steppe, which is exactly the part of Europe they managed to hold onto for a while in the end. They made incursions into other parts of (and nearby) European grasslands previously mentioned before that. And yes, they were certainly seen as barbarians and caused parts of Europe to unite against them after the initial invasions.

Furthermore, there were some accounts of Mongols using chemical warfare (ostensibly, they catapulted diseased cattle and people over city walls) to kill off entire cities under siege, which is something I don't see Dothraki using as they don't even have siege engines. And you make a great point about her potentially denying them spoils of war. That would require a major shift in Dothraki culture and I don't think they'd just change over night.

I agree that anyone invading with such a huge foreign force could very likely cause a culture clash. They have large enough numbers not to have to integrate into the society. That would cause a problem.

 

[ssls6]

I think they are cannon fodder thus the problem will solve itself in the battles to come.