What the Show tells us about the Northern storyline in the books.

[Lord Varys]

@Free Northman Reborn

I'm basically not sure what to make of the Pink Letter scenario. I don't think we necessarily have to go with taking anything from the letter at face value that hasn't been confirmed (which is only the stuff about Mance and the spearwives being sent to Winterfell by Jon Snow).

But if Stannis actually fakes his death for some occult reason (I don't think we can take his conversation with Massey as confirmation that he'll do that) then it is pretty clear, I think, that he'll thereafter successfully infiltrate and take over Winterfell.

I think to fake such a death would be very difficult, especially if Lightbringer was involved in some way. A Manderly man perpetrating the story wouldn't be believed by Roose or Ramsay, sword or not. And if Stannis' alleged body is lost for some reason in the story (say, because he drowned in the lake, too) then the fact that his sword was recovered would be a very problematic element in this story. Nobody is going to believe that somebody not very trustworthy got Stannis' sword but not his corpse. Especially not a person as cautious as Roose.

Not sure, either, if Ramsay will ever go to the lake. In the books that is just Theon's conjecture, and Theon is not exactly a mind reader. He fears that Ramsay is coming because he fears Ramsay. Not to mention that Ramsay is not exactly an experienced or masterful general. What makes us believe that Ramsay is going to command the Bolton troops rather than Roose himself? Would he entrust Ramsay with the task of defeating Stannis Baratheon and win glory in the process? Difficult to say.

As to why a infiltration plot might be unnecessary:

If the Boltons lose at the lake and the Manderlys change they cloaks then this will have a major impact on the remaining Northern forces in the castle. Roose/Ramsay might either get abandoned or even killed or delivered to Stannis. All Stannis would need to take the castle in such a setting would be one open gate.

The Shireen sacrifice must happen at a (much) later point in the story. Perhaps at the point when they are already fighting the Others. Stannis not being the savior could actually be finally revealed when this sacrifice does not work the way it should. Mel/Stannis might set up Shireen as another Nissa Nissa, making Lightbringer into a really burning sword or something like that (or accomplish another big spoil that would help them against the Others).

There is a lot of stuff going to happen after the battles are over. Wall stuff, wildlings stuff, Northern alliances stuff, Skagos/Rickon stuff, Hardhome stuff, and so on. An immediate aftermath could be an expedition to Torrhen's Square, by the way. With Theon/Asha Stannis should be able to restore the castle to the Glovers and perhaps even recruit Dagmer's men to his cause.

By the way: Theon most likely will survive not only the weirwood island but also the battles. George recently worked on another Theon chapter, and that's most likely not Theon 1 (which is pretty much finished).

And whatever Stark restoration there will be under Stannis isn't going to look great or glorious considering that a lot of people will die in the battles. And the sellswords aren't yet there. Somehow I doubt that many men will we actually want to spend winter at the Wall. Some might come, but most likely not 20,000. Perhaps 5,000-10,000. And they will be swords to prepare for the war against the Others, not in any war in the South.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

I'm basically not sure what to make of the Pink Letter scenario. I don't think we necessarily have to go with taking anything from the letter at face value that hasn't been confirmed (which is only the stuff about Mance and the spearwives being sent to Winterfell by Jon Snow).

But if Stannis actually fakes his death for some occult reason (I don't think we can take his conversation with Massey as confirmation that he'll do that) then it is pretty clear, I think, that he'll thereafter successfully infiltrate and take over Winterfell.

I think to fake such a death would be very difficult, especially if Lightbringer was involved in some way. A Manderly man perpetrating the story wouldn't be believed by Roose or Ramsay, sword or not. And if Stannis' alleged body is lost for some reason in the story (say, because he drowned in the lake, too) then the fact that his sword was recovered would be a very problematic element in this story. Nobody is going to believe that somebody not very trustworthy got Stannis' sword but not his corpse. Especially not a person as cautious as Roose.

Not sure, either, if Ramsay will ever go to the lake. In the books that is just Theon's conjecture, and Theon is not exactly a mind reader. He fears that Ramsay is coming because he fears Ramsay. Not to mention that Ramsay is not exactly an experienced or masterful general. What makes us believe that Ramsay is going to command the Bolton troops rather than Roose himself? Would he entrust Ramsay with the task of defeating Stannis Baratheon and win glory in the process? Difficult to say.

As to why a infiltration plot might be unnecessary:

If the Boltons lose at the lake and the Manderlys change they cloaks then this will have a major impact on the remaining Northern forces in the castle. Roose/Ramsay might either get abandoned or even killed or delivered to Stannis. All Stannis would need to take the castle in such a setting would be one open gate.

The Shireen sacrifice must happen at a (much) later point in the story. Perhaps at the point when they are already fighting the Others. Stannis not being the savior could actually be finally revealed when this sacrifice does not work the way it should. Mel/Stannis might set up Shireen as another Nissa Nissa, making Lightbringer into a really burning sword or something like that (or accomplish another big spoil that would help them against the Others).

There is a lot of stuff going to happen after the battles are over. Wall stuff, wildlings stuff, Northern alliances stuff, Skagos/Rickon stuff, Hardhome stuff, and so on. An immediate aftermath could be an expedition to Torrhen's Square, by the way. With Theon/Asha Stannis should be able to restore the castle to the Glovers and perhaps even recruit Dagmer's men to his cause.

By the way: Theon most likely will survive not only the weirwood island but also the battles. George recently worked on another Theon chapter, and that's most likely not Theon 1 (which is pretty much finished).

And whatever Stark restoration there will be under Stannis isn't going to look great or glorious considering that a lot of people will die in the battles. And the sellswords aren't yet there. Somehow I doubt that many men will we actually want to spend winter at the Wall. Some might come, but most likely not 20,000. Perhaps 5,000-10,000. And they will be swords to prepare for the war against the Others, not in any war in the South.

Well, a very different story to the one that I envisage, let me say that at least.

One in which the Starks are very much supporting characters only, rather than the focal points of the plot. With Stannis entrenched in Winterfell, Jon becomes a lost soul wandering around up at the Wall, Rickon becomes a pawn of Stannis to unite the North and Bran remains North of the Wall in obscurity.

Not the story that I foresee, to be frank.

 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, a very different story to the one that I envisage, let me say that at least.

One in which the Starks are very much supporting characters only, rather than the focal points of the plot. With Stannis entrenched in Winterfell, Jon becomes a lost soul wandering around up at the Wall, Rickon becomes a pawn of Stannis to unite the North and Bran remains North of the Wall in obscurity.

Not the story that I foresee, to be frank.

Stannis will eventually be gone, and then the Starks will take over (or rather Jon, who by that time might be Stannis second-in-command/main ally anyway).

I think the main point of our difference is that I see the stuff you see farther in the future. The Starks will come really to the fore when they true war against the Others begins.

And perhaps in the sense that I don't expect anything politically going to come from the North. They are no longer playing the political game - if they would, they would be utter fools. Winter has come and the Others are threatening them. All their efforts should now be about securing the Wall. Perhaps they will man Moat Cailin to ensure that no mad pretender in the South actually tries to invade the North, but that should be it.

I certainly see Jon become one of the main heroes in his own right eventually. He already is that, by the way. He doesn't have to wear a crown to be important. And even with Stannis still there there is no reason that he'll dominate things or be in charge of everything. He wasn't in ADwD, or was he?

Bran being in the cave doesn't prevent him from pulling many strings and actually show up (in the tree faces, ravens, dreams, etc.) one way or another. Or to magically intervene on a larger scale.

Rickon is too young to be anything but a pawn, sadly. But Sansa and Arya most certainly will play major roles. Not necessarily in the North, though, but still major roles in the grand scale of things - which will be the war against the Others, and nothing else.

Say, if Sansa marries or tries to marry Aegon and eventually hooks up with Tyrion and Dany then she could play a very crucial role in forging the final humanity-saving alliance between Daenerys and the guys in the North.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis will eventually be gone, and then the Starks will take over (or rather Jon, who by that time might be Stannis second-in-command/main ally anyway).

I think the main point of our difference is that I see the stuff you see farther in the future. The Starks will come really to the fore when they true war against the Others begins.

And perhaps in the sense that I don't expect anything politically going to come from the North. They are no longer playing the political game - if they would, they would be utter fools. Winter has come and the Others are threatening them. All their efforts should now be about securing the Wall. Perhaps they will man Moat Cailin to ensure that no mad pretender in the South actually tries to invade the North, but that should be it.

I certainly see Jon become one of the main heroes in his own right eventually. He already is that, by the way. He doesn't have to wear a crown to be important. And even with Stannis still there there is no reason that he'll dominate things or be in charge of everything. He wasn't in ADwD, or was he?

Bran being in the cave doesn't prevent him from pulling many strings and actually show up (in the tree faces, ravens, dreams, etc.) one way or another. Or to magically intervene on a larger scale.

Rickon is too young to be anything but a pawn, sadly. But Sansa and Arya most certainly will play major roles. Not necessarily in the North, though, but still major roles in the grand scale of things - which will be the war against the Others, and nothing else.

Say, if Sansa marries or tries to marry Aegon and eventually hooks up with Tyrion and Dany then she could play a very crucial role in forging the final humanity-saving alliance between Daenerys and the guys in the North.

But this is our main point of contention. If the North is as devestated, desperate and desolate as you believe it will be, then no alliance is needed between them and Daenerys. With everything seemingly falling into Daenerys's lap in the South, added to her Essosi horde and three Dragons, she can do what she wants to against the Others without any help or approval from the "poor, weak and hungry refugees" of the North.

For the entire Northern plot to mean something, there has to be a prize at stake. And that prize is Winterfell and a united strong North, allied to the Vale and the Riverlands. And that is only possible with a Stark in charge. That will bring us to some kind of alliance between equals, rather than a bunch of Northern refugees being saved by the grace of the great Queen Daenerys.

[Maia]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 With everything seemingly falling into Daenerys's lap in the South, added to her Essosi horde and three Dragons, she can do what she wants to against the Others without any help or approval from the "poor, weak and hungry refugees" of the North.

Well, the northeners will be the ones who will know what needs to be done, the ones with the know-how of fighting in the cold and snow, most extensive experiences with the Others and with the access to weirwood archive and greenseer/CoTF magic via Bran. But when all is said and done, the Others and the Long Night need to be genuine threats, otherwise the whole build-up to them until now would be utterly pointless and misleading.  I.e. they can't stay penned beyond the Wall by your strong North, but have to break through at the worst possible time, overrun the North and push humanity south - at least as far as the Riverlands, but better still further. I do think that some old castles are warded against them, as Storm's End was warded against Mel's magic - it wouldn't surprise me if  it's protections were initially intended against the Others and just proved to be universal. So, there may be pockets of hold-outs, but on the whole, yes, people would need to flee south to survive.

Not to mention, that armies would be able to do zip against the Long Night itself. If it can be stopped/shortened, then by magic - i.e. Bran. If not, it will be a test of  perseverance. All in all, Dany's armies and even her dragons won't be nearly as useful as you claim. After all, from TWoIAF we know that Meraxes was not all that helpful  during The Last Storm because of strong rain - how much  more will Dany's 3 young dragons, who yes, are growing pretty quickly, but won't be a patch on those used by the Conquerors even so, be hampered by fierce snow storms? IMHO, they will be mainly important for communication and scouting - though, there again, the Others seem to have superb camouflage and/or limited invisibility, perhaps? Not to mention that they mainly operate in the dark.  

Which is why I think that Stannis will be the one to take Winterfell from the Boltons and maybe will become besieged in it, when the Others overrun the North, and he'll refuse to retreat south. Basically, this re-taking of Winterfell will prove to be pretty meaningless when all is said and done - so why have a Stark do it? I also think that WF was protected against the Others, but recent destruction and shoddy re-building by the Boltons may have damaged that aspect of it. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But this is our main point of contention. If the North is as devestated, desperate and desolate as you believe it will be, then no alliance is needed between them and Daenerys. With everything seemingly falling into Daenerys's lap in the South, added to her Essosi horde and three Dragons, she can do what she wants to against the Others without any help or approval from the "poor, weak and hungry refugees" of the North.

Well, there won't be a reason for conflict in the books, though. I mean, if Jon learns his true parentage he is not going to want to challenge Dany's (or even Aegon's) claim. Not to mention that it would be utter stupidity for Rhaegar's son to proclaim himself a King in the North and challenge the claim of another Targaryen.

The show will resolve this 'problem' (if there is such a thing at all) with the marriage of Dany and Jon Snow. This will reunite the kingdoms again. That marriage is going to happen in the books, too, although I doubt we'll get it under similar circumstances.

The books will have Daenerys and her people know and believe in the threat the Others pose. Insofar as the North is concerned she is not going to come as a conqueror. We know that since AFfC where it was made clear that Archmaester Marwyn is going to go to her and tell her about the existence of the Others and the threat they pose to the Night's Watch and the Realm.

It will depend on the time line whether the North is going to get involved in the Second Dance but there is no reason to believe that the Others have to bring down the Wall before Dany arrives. Only if the Others have already invaded the North would they be refugees in any real sense. But I think we'll get skirmishes and fights against the Others before the Wall comes down simply because we have the Gorge and the Bridge of Skulls and the possibility of Others/wights using rafts/ships or simply freezing the sea to get south of the Wall.

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

For the entire Northern plot to mean something, there has to be a prize at stake. And that prize is Winterfell and a united strong North, allied to the Vale and the Riverlands. And that is only possible with a Stark in charge. That will bring us to some kind of alliance between equals, rather than a bunch of Northern refugees being saved by the grace of the great Queen Daenerys.

It wouldn't be an alliance among equals. Not by a long shot. Dany's forces could still conquer the North. Perhaps not in winter but so what? They could wait. And if Dany conquers the South and most of the Free Cities then the North won't get any food from down there unless at her leave. They cannot (and would not) want to remain independent. That dream is already done in ADwD unless you don't imagine Lord Wyman is lying to Davos. Lord Manderly wants revenge and a Stark restoration but he has no problem allying with Stannis to do so.

You have to ask yourself what you would do if most of your people are dead, you lack provisions to get all your remaining people through the worst winter in history, and you are also in danger of being crushed by zombies and ice demons: Would you accept the help that is offered or not?

And from a political point of view it just doesn't make any sense for Littlefinger and Sansa to go north in winter:

1. It would leave the Vale more or less undefended allowing Euron Greyjoy or Daenerys Targaryen to seize with their armadas (they would have to go north by ship, anyway).

2. Depending who wins the war in the South they would risk losing influence down in the South if the wrong king ends up on the Iron Throne or remains there.

3. The Vale men should be ill equipped for winter warfare in the North and subsequently would not likely be of much help up there after one initial battle. Nobody would want to stay there to man the castles of the Wall or defend land that is not theirs against imagined foes in the middle of a lot of snow. They would see this as a fool's errand, and quickly desert or return home.

4. Sansa's cause would profit much more if they become kingmakers in the South, clearing her name and reputation in the process, rather than ignoring all that. There is a reason as to why Sansa was disguised as Littlefinger's bastard daughter in the books. She is a suspect in the murder of King Joffrey and whatever the truth might be I guess a lot of people would not want her to get away with such a deed. Even people who aren't exactly Lannister friends (Sansa own ancestor, Cregan Stark, would want her head for such a crime as would her own father, Eddard Stark).

You also have to think about the interesting potential of a Sansa story taking place in the South. She could meet Sandor and her mother again, we could see her reveal the truth about the murder of Joffrey causing problems for certain members of House Tyrell, and she could actually acquire some power.

Not to mention that whoever ends up taking Winterfell to early might lose it again. When the Others come there is little chance that people staying there will survive that.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

Well, the northeners will be the ones who will know what needs to be done, the ones with the know-how of fighting in the cold and snow, most extensive experiences with the Others and with the access to weirwood archive and greenseer/CoTF magic via Bran. But when all is said and done, the Others and the Long Night need to be genuine threats, otherwise the whole build-up to them until now would be utterly pointless and misleading.  I.e. they can't stay penned beyond the Wall by your strong North, but have to break through at the worst possible time, overrun the North and push humanity south - at least as far as the Riverlands, but better still further. I do think that some old castles are warded against them, as Storm's End was warded against Mel's magic - it wouldn't surprise me if  it's protections were initially intended against the Others and just proved to be universal. So, there may be pockets of hold-outs, but on the whole, yes, people would need to flee south to survive.

Well, FNR has the idea that there will be a lot of wights down in the South attacking the people there before the Others even march down South. Or that the Others will first ignore the North and push on down south.

I don't think both is very plausible because if the Others are smart they will play the 'We are just imaginary monsters' card as long as they can and not resurrect every corpse down in the South as soon as they can.

And I think we have to consider the winter warfare thing (I actually started a thread about this whole thing in the TWoW forum). I don't think winter warfare is a common thing in the North (Brandon Ice Eyes was just dealing with some foreign slavers in winter, not one of the Red Kings). Warfare in Westeros always involves sieges, and sieges are impossible in winter. As are pitched battles (at least when there is a lot of snow lying around).

Stannis' army was surprised by an autumn storm. Winter storms should be much worse. And the winter that has come should be the worst ever, a calamity no one in the North should be prepared for thanks to Ned and Robb Stark.

It is beyond me how we could assume that anyone could recover or gather new strength in such a winter. A lot of commoners in the North should die of cold and starvation now because we do know that they don't have enough food.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

Not to mention, that armies would be able to do zip against the Long Night itself. If it can be stopped/shortened, then by magic - i.e. Bran. If not, it will be a test of  perseverance. All in all, Dany's armies and even her dragons won't be nearly as useful as you claim. After all, from TWoIAF we know that Meraxes was not all that helpful  during The Last Storm because of strong rain - how much  more will Dany's 3 young dragons, who yes, are growing pretty quickly, but won't be a patch on those used by the Conquerors even so, be hampered by fierce snow storms? IMHO, they will be mainly important for communication and scouting - though, there again, the Others seem to have superb camouflage and/or limited invisibility, perhaps? Not to mention that they mainly operate in the dark.

That is another point. The dragons should be able to deal with the Others quickly enough in direct combat, but only under favorable weather conditions. And somehow I don't think they will get any of those. If the Others bring cold and snow then they should also be capable of bringing some snow storms.

But whatever food and men Dany is going to bring west from Essos is going to be a huge help.

8 hours ago, Maia said:

Which is why I think that Stannis will be the one to take Winterfell from the Boltons and maybe will become besieged in it, when the Others overrun the North, and he'll refuse to retreat south. Basically, this re-taking of Winterfell will prove to be pretty meaningless when all is said and done - so why have a Stark do it? I also think that WF was protected against the Others, but recent destruction and shoddy re-building by the Boltons may have damaged that aspect of it. 

I don't think whatever wards there are will help anyone against the Others if they are at your door. They don't have to get inside to kill you. The cold will do that. After all, the cold also gets across the Wall and the walls of Winterfell. That part of the magic of the Others is very powerful. If Stannis ends up in there in Winterfell then the Shireen sacrifice could happen there, part last hope, part mercy killing to prevent her from becoming a wight. And one expects Stannis to burn himself and Selyse and perhaps even more of his people rather than to have them become wights.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, there won't be a reason for conflict in the books, though. I mean, if Jon learns his true parentage he is not going to want to challenge Dany's (or even Aegon's) claim. Not to mention that it would be utter stupidity for Rhaegar's son to proclaim himself a King in the North and challenge the claim of another Targaryen.

The show will resolve this 'problem' (if there is such a thing at all) with the marriage of Dany and Jon Snow. This will reunite the kingdoms again. That marriage is going to happen in the books, too, although I doubt we'll get it under similar circumstances.

The books will have Daenerys and her people know and believe in the threat the Others pose. Insofar as the North is concerned she is not going to come as a conqueror. We know that since AFfC where it was made clear that Archmaester Marwyn is going to go to her and tell her about the existence of the Others and the threat they pose to the Night's Watch and the Realm.

It will depend on the time line whether the North is going to get involved in the Second Dance but there is no reason to believe that the Others have to bring down the Wall before Dany arrives. Only if the Others have already invaded the North would they be refugees in any real sense. But I think we'll get skirmishes and fights against the Others before the Wall comes down simply because we have the Gorge and the Bridge of Skulls and the possibility of Others/wights using rafts/ships or simply freezing the sea to get south of the Wall.

It wouldn't be an alliance among equals. Not by a long shot. Dany's forces could still conquer the North. Perhaps not in winter but so what? They could wait. And if Dany conquers the South and most of the Free Cities then the North won't get any food from down there unless at her leave. They cannot (and would not) want to remain independent. That dream is already done in ADwD unless you don't imagine Lord Wyman is lying to Davos. Lord Manderly wants revenge and a Stark restoration but he has no problem allying with Stannis to do so.

You have to ask yourself what you would do if most of your people are dead, you lack provisions to get all your remaining people through the worst winter in history, and you are also in danger of being crushed by zombies and ice demons: Would you accept the help that is offered or not?

And from a political point of view it just doesn't make any sense for Littlefinger and Sansa to go north in winter:

1. It would leave the Vale more or less undefended allowing Euron Greyjoy or Daenerys Targaryen to seize with their armadas (they would have to go north by ship, anyway).

2. Depending who wins the war in the South they would risk losing influence down in the South if the wrong king ends up on the Iron Throne or remains there.

3. The Vale men should be ill equipped for winter warfare in the North and subsequently would not likely be of much help up there after one initial battle. Nobody would want to stay there to man the castles of the Wall or defend land that is not theirs against imagined foes in the middle of a lot of snow. They would see this as a fool's errand, and quickly desert or return home.

4. Sansa's cause would profit much more if they become kingmakers in the South, clearing her name and reputation in the process, rather than ignoring all that. There is a reason as to why Sansa was disguised as Littlefinger's bastard daughter in the books. She is a suspect in the murder of King Joffrey and whatever the truth might be I guess a lot of people would not want her to get away with such a deed. Even people who aren't exactly Lannister friends (Sansa own ancestor, Cregan Stark, would want her head for such a crime as would her own father, Eddard Stark).

You also have to think about the interesting potential of a Sansa story taking place in the South. She could meet Sandor and her mother again, we could see her reveal the truth about the murder of Joffrey causing problems for certain members of House Tyrell, and she could actually acquire some power.

Not to mention that whoever ends up taking Winterfell to early might lose it again. When the Others come there is little chance that people staying there will survive that.

Well, FNR has the idea that there will be a lot of wights down in the South attacking the people there before the Others even march down South. Or that the Others will first ignore the North and push on down south.

I don't think both is very plausible because if the Others are smart they will play the 'We are just imaginary monsters' card as long as they can and not resurrect every corpse down in the South as soon as they can.

And I think we have to consider the winter warfare thing (I actually started a thread about this whole thing in the TWoW forum). I don't think winter warfare is a common thing in the North (Brandon Ice Eyes was just dealing with some foreign slavers in winter, not one of the Red Kings). Warfare in Westeros always involves sieges, and sieges are impossible in winter. As are pitched battles (at least when there is a lot of snow lying around).

Stannis' army was surprised by an autumn storm. Winter storms should be much worse. And the winter that has come should be the worst ever, a calamity no one in the North should be prepared for thanks to Ned and Robb Stark.

It is beyond me how we could assume that anyone could recover or gather new strength in such a winter. A lot of commoners in the North should die of cold and starvation now because we do know that they don't have enough food.

That is another point. The dragons should be able to deal with the Others quickly enough in direct combat, but only under favorable weather conditions. And somehow I don't think they will get any of those. If the Others bring cold and snow then they should also be capable of bringing some snow storms.

But whatever food and men Dany is going to bring west from Essos is going to be a huge help.

I don't think whatever wards there are will help anyone against the Others if they are at your door. They don't have to get inside to kill you. The cold will do that. After all, the cold also gets across the Wall and the walls of Winterfell. That part of the magic of the Others is very powerful. If Stannis ends up in there in Winterfell then the Shireen sacrifice could happen there, part last hope, part mercy killing to prevent her from becoming a wight. And one expects Stannis to burn himself and Selyse and perhaps even more of his people rather than to have them become wights.

I think you conflate a lot of issues in the process of criticizing the Northern-Vale-Riverlands alliance storyline.

Firstly - Winter warfare.

I think the internal fighting in the North is almost done. Any further fighting will be a united North against the Others. That will not require the movement of large armies on extended campaigns. Additionally, the threat of a united North allied with the Vale and the Riverlands will give this alliance political power. But it will never need to be exercised as a real campaign against Daenerys's forces, or against Aegon's or any other forces from the South, as the mere threat thereof will be sufficient to force an alliance between the Northern and Southron power blocs. Perhaps resulting in this marriage between Jon and Dany that you foresee.

Regarding the Vale:

They are not going to ride North to engage in conventional warfare in support of the Starks. Instead, they are there to provide logistical support largely in the form of food sales - to the North. The foundation for this is already set in the Sansa sample chapter where Littlefinger is having the Vale hoard food, ostensibly to make huge profits in Winter by exporting it from Gulltown. In reality we know that once Sansa controls the Vale she is going to direct that food to the North, and not at exploitative profit margins.

Regarding Sansa:

The only way for her to gain power in the Vale is by marrying Harry and killing Robert Arryn. And that means that she cannot marry Aegon, because the only reason Aegon would be interested in her is due to her claim to the Vale, which is dependent on her link to Harry. So I don't understand this idea you have of a marriage alliance between Aegon and Sansa. How would that work? What does Sansa have to offer?

Even in your own scenario of Stannis taking control of the North via Rickon, that still leaves Sansa out of the loop of the Northern inheritance, just as Rickon's presence removes her from the line of succession of Riverrun. So all she has to offer is the Vale. Which she loses if she abandons Harry to marry Aegon.

So the entire idea of Sansa marrying Aegon does not make sense.

Instead, Aegon's rise to power is critically dependent on a marriage alliance with Dorne. Which is already being set up in Arriane's released sample chapters. Arriane brings Aegon Dorne. Sansa brings him nothing unless she is already the mother of Harry's child, and Harry is dead. And it seems unlikely that we have another year to wait for that to happen. Nor do I imagine Aegon is interested in marrying someone who just gave birth to someone else's child.

So Sansa's likely path to power seems to be as  Lady of the Vale, and close kin and ally of the King in the North and the Lord of the Riverlands. But by marrying Aegon, she cannot bring any of these three regions along with her, as she doesn't have power over any of them in her own right.

By being the Lady who forges the alliance between the North, Vale and Riverlands, however, she can play the role of powerbroker and political manipulator far more effectively. But this relies on her being present as Lady of the Vale, and not as consort or second wife to Aegon in King's Landing.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Firstly - Winter warfare.

I think the internal fighting in the North is almost done. Any further fighting will be a united North against the Others. That will not require the movement of large armies on extended campaigns. Additionally, the threat of a united North allied with the Vale and the Riverlands will give this alliance political power. But it will never need to be exercised as a real campaign against Daenerys's forces, or against Aegon's or any other forces from the South, as the mere threat thereof will be sufficient to force an alliance between the Northern and Southron power blocs. Perhaps resulting in this marriage between Jon and Dany that you foresee.

Hm. That doesn't make much sense. The Lords of the Vale will enter the fight. That is necessitated by their presence as well as the whole Sansa plot. They won't sit around on their asses for much longer. And considering that they have no good reason to go north soon they will interfere with the fights in the South.

The only faction powerful enough to challenge Tommen/Aegon/Euron right now would be the Vale, and even they couldn't hope to win on their own. The Riverlands might be able to rid themselves of the Freys but they have no way of intimidating any outside forces. If the Riverlords don't bent the knee to Aegon then he'll have a very effective (and deadly) way to make them pay by ensuring they get neither food nor help during the winter.

Not to mention that the retaking of Riverrun by Catelyn (and the subsequent treatment of Genna Lannister) will trigger some sort of response from the West - as will Aegon's ascension to the throne. The Riverlands lie between KL and Lannisport, and are thus likely to become a battleground again. If they were stupid enough to declare for a Stark king with no armies again the Westermen and Aegon's people will rip them apart for good.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding the Vale:

They are not going to ride North to engage in conventional warfare in support of the Starks. Instead, they are there to provide logistical support largely in the form of food sales - to the North. The foundation for this is already set in the Sansa sample chapter where Littlefinger is having the Vale hoard food, ostensibly to make huge profits in Winter by exporting it from Gulltown. In reality we know that once Sansa controls the Vale she is going to direct that food to the North, and not at exploitative profit margins.

Well, I must say I've still great problems seeing Sansa ever 'controlling the Vale'. She is a thirteen-year-old girl, after all. That said, I'm with you that the Vale might sell food to the North. But that is not going to help them all that much considering that the Wall is going to fall in the foreseeable future.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding Sansa:

The only way for her to gain power in the Vale is by marrying Harry and killing Robert Arryn. And that means that she cannot marry Aegon, because the only reason Aegon would be interested in her is due to her claim to the Vale, which is dependent on her link to Harry. So I don't understand this idea you have of a marriage alliance between Aegon and Sansa. How would that work? What does Sansa have to offer?

Oh, that works pretty fine, actually. You remember the original plan Littlefinger laid out in AFfC?

1. Littlefinger convinced Lady Waynwood to arrange a betrothal between Alayne Stone and Harrold Hardyng under the condition that Harry agrees.

2. Alayne has to win Harry's trust and affection to convince him to go along with that (we see the beginning of that in Alayne 1).

3. Alayne and Harry have to formally betrothed.

4. Tyrion has to die or Sansa's marriage has to be formally annulled.

5. Lord Robert has to die.

6. Sansa Stark and Harrold Hardyng Arryn marry each other.

Now, we can be sure that Littlefinger learns of Aegon's arrival very soon, he might even have heard of that in Alayne 1. That is a complete game changer. Harry could easily enough be discarded as Sansa's future husband. Lord Robert still lives, after all, the Vale could come to Aegon's aid under his leadership. And even if he was already dead Littlefinger would remain the Lord Protector because Harry clearly isn't a man grown (in such a scenario Lady Waynwood would have no right to arrange marriages for him).

Sansa doesn't have to have anything to offer herself in marriage to Aegon. Margaery didn't have anything either, when the Tyrells forced the Lannister to accept her as Joffrey's queen. But Sansa would still be the heir of Winterfell at this point, possibly enabling Aegon to win the allegiance of the North or at least the promise that the Northmen would not support Stannis in any war against him.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Instead, Aegon's rise to power is critically dependent on a marriage alliance with Dorne. Which is already being set up in Arriane's released sample chapters. Arriane brings Aegon Dorne. Sansa brings him nothing unless she is already the mother of Harry's child, and Harry is dead. And it seems unlikely that we have another year to wait for that to happen. Nor do I imagine Aegon is interested in marrying someone who just gave birth to someone else's child.

Arianne marrying Aegon is still a good guess, but we don't yet know if things turn out this way. Littlefinger and Sansa might act too rashly miscalculating things (after all, they won't know that Varys is the man behind Aegon), falsely hoping Sansa could marry Aegon. Not to mention that Arianne might actually be content just declaring for Aegon without enforcing a marriage alliance. 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So Sansa's likely path to power seems to be as  Lady of the Vale, and close kin and ally of the King in the North and the Lord of the Riverlands. But by marrying Aegon, she cannot bring any of these three regions along with her, as she doesn't have power over any of them in her own right.

By being the Lady who forges the alliance between the North, Vale and Riverlands, however, she can play the role of powerbroker and political manipulator far more effectively. But this relies on her being present as Lady of the Vale, and not as consort or second wife to Aegon in King's Landing.

Again, I've trouble imagining Sansa in a real position of power. She might be able to suggest ideas or manipulate people but it is very difficult to see her as a character who actively takes charge.

However, becoming queen is an interesting thing in itself. It gives you power that far extends those of mere ladies, considering that you have the ear of the king in such a scenario. She might still like that. After all, she wanted to be Joffrey's queen.

And if you think about it - what do you think you would do if you were Sansa? Entering into some reckless/weirdo scheme to retake the North in the middle of winter when you can wait until next spring or trying to get back at Cersei and the Lannisters, avenging your dead family members in the process. An alliance with Aegon is going to offer all that, and more.

[Free Northman Reborn]

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Hm. That doesn't make much sense. The Lords of the Vale will enter the fight. That is necessitated by their presence as well as the whole Sansa plot. They won't sit around on their asses for much longer. And considering that they have no good reason to go north soon they will interfere with the fights in the South.

The only faction powerful enough to challenge Tommen/Aegon/Euron right now would be the Vale, and even they couldn't hope to win on their own. The Riverlands might be able to rid themselves of the Freys but they have no way of intimidating any outside forces. If the Riverlords don't bent the knee to Aegon then he'll have a very effective (and deadly) way to make them pay by ensuring they get neither food nor help during the winter.

Not to mention that the retaking of Riverrun by Catelyn (and the subsequent treatment of Genna Lannister) will trigger some sort of response from the West - as will Aegon's ascension to the throne. The Riverlands lie between KL and Lannisport, and are thus likely to become a battleground again. If they were stupid enough to declare for a Stark king with no armies again the Westermen and Aegon's people will rip them apart for good.

Well, I must say I've still great problems seeing Sansa ever 'controlling the Vale'. She is a thirteen-year-old girl, after all. That said, I'm with you that the Vale might sell food to the North. But that is not going to help them all that much considering that the Wall is going to fall in the foreseeable future.

Oh, that works pretty fine, actually. You remember the original plan Littlefinger laid out in AFfC?

1. Littlefinger convinced Lady Waynwood to arrange a betrothal between Alayne Stone and Harrold Hardyng under the condition that Harry agrees.

2. Alayne has to win Harry's trust and affection to convince him to go along with that (we see the beginning of that in Alayne 1).

3. Alayne and Harry have to formally betrothed.

4. Tyrion has to die or Sansa's marriage has to be formally annulled.

5. Lord Robert has to die.

6. Sansa Stark and Harrold Hardyng Arryn marry each other.

Now, we can be sure that Littlefinger learns of Aegon's arrival very soon, he might even have heard of that in Alayne 1. That is a complete game changer. Harry could easily enough be discarded as Sansa's future husband. Lord Robert still lives, after all, the Vale could come to Aegon's aid under his leadership. And even if he was already dead Littlefinger would remain the Lord Protector because Harry clearly isn't a man grown (in such a scenario Lady Waynwood would have no right to arrange marriages for him).

Sansa doesn't have to have anything to offer herself in marriage to Aegon. Margaery didn't have anything either, when the Tyrells forced the Lannister to accept her as Joffrey's queen. But Sansa would still be the heir of Winterfell at this point, possibly enabling Aegon to win the allegiance of the North or at least the promise that the Northmen would not support Stannis in any war against him.

Arianne marrying Aegon is still a good guess, but we don't yet know if things turn out this way. Littlefinger and Sansa might act too rashly miscalculating things (after all, they won't know that Varys is the man behind Aegon), falsely hoping Sansa could marry Aegon. Not to mention that Arianne might actually be content just declaring for Aegon without enforcing a marriage alliance. 

Again, I've trouble imagining Sansa in a real position of power. She might be able to suggest ideas or manipulate people but it is very difficult to see her as a character who actively takes charge.

However, becoming queen is an interesting thing in itself. It gives you power that far extends those of mere ladies, considering that you have the ear of the king in such a scenario. She might still like that. After all, she wanted to be Joffrey's queen.

And if you think about it - what do you think you would do if you were Sansa? Entering into some reckless/weirdo scheme to retake the North in the middle of winter when you can wait until next spring or trying to get back at Cersei and the Lannisters, avenging your dead family members in the process. An alliance with Aegon is going to offer all that, and more.

You seem to feel that the Lords of the Vale must pick fights simply for the thrill of it. This while Winter has arrived, as you continuously point out. Why would they enter a fight on behalf of a Targaryen claimant, when they were integral in the war that deposed the Targaryens just 15 years ago?

As to how Sansa gains control of the Vale? Well, the obvious way is by making Harry completely infatuated with her, and getting rid of Robert and Littlefinger. Yohn Royce would rush to her side once he learns that she is Ned's daughter. And that would both cement Harry's position and bring the Lords Declarant to her side.

After that it is a simple matter to align the Vale with the Starks and with the Tullys - their allies from the last great war.

You seem to once again mix up the timelines going forward. While Aegon's conquest is underway in the Stormlands, Reach and Crownlands, this will weaken the Lannisters sufficiently for the Riverlanders to take their lands back and restore the Tully's. Especially if this coincides with the Stark return in the North and with the support of the Vale.

Aegon is not going to conquer all of Westeros. He will take Dorne, the Reach, Stormlands and King's  Landing. And then Daenerys will arrive and end his reign. I highly doubt that he is also going to gain the allegiance of the Riverlands and Vale. Especially not once the Tullys recapture Riverrun, and Winterfell is returned to the Starks.

Aegon is going to be a short blip on the radar. Not a lengthy presence in the story. By the end of Winds he will have King's Landing, but Daenerys will be on her way back as well.

I think your quest for a Sansa-Aegon match up is not based on substance. And it is not consistent with your other positions, such as Stannis ruling the North with Rickon as figurehead. If Rickon is back, then Sansa means nothing to Aegon as a potential heir. Her situation is very different from Margaery's, as Margaery brought Joffrey 100,000 Tyrell swords and her Lord Father's blessing. Sansa brings none of that to Aegon.

The snowcastle foreshadowing makes it clear that Sansa's future plot arc involves her repaying the damage she has done to the North with her early indiscretions and misguided betrayals. There is plenty of political intrigue that needs to happen between the Vale, Riverlands and North, which will occupy an entire book or more.

And this does not mean that she is isolated from the greater Game of Thrones either. Instead, it just makes her an even more powerful player, which is obviously the 'power" that Martin is training her for (if assassin skills is Arya's power, greenseeing is Bran's, and military leadership is Jon's.)

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You seem to feel that the Lords of the Vale must pick fights simply for the thrill of it. This while Winter has arrived, as you continuously point out. Why would they enter a fight on behalf of a Targaryen claimant, when they were integral in the war that deposed the Targaryens just 15 years ago?

Because they wanted to fight the entire time and now they have a reason to finally do so? They would be fighting for their true king not some pretender. A Targaryen king is the one thing that has the chance to unite Westeros again. And nobody more so than the son of beloved Rhaegar. People are drinking to the health of the Targaryens from White Harbor to Oldtown.

George himself complains on occasion that Seven Kingdoms are too much but now that he has so many he has to deal with them all. The Vale is not just going to sit around doing nothing. And besides, the Targaryens are talked about and 

Quote

As to how Sansa gains control of the Vale? Well, the obvious way is by making Harry completely infatuated with her, and getting rid of Robert and Littlefinger. Yohn Royce would rush to her side once he learns that she is Ned's daughter. And that would both cement Harry's position and bring the Lords Declarant to her side.

Aha. And how is that going to happen? Again, Harry is still a minor so his word won't mean all that much. He might be a man grown in next spring, according to Littlefinger's original Winterfell plan, but he isn't now. 

Quote

After that it is as simple matter to align the Vale with the Starks and with the Tullys - their allies from the last great war.

Which effectively are a non-factor in a war.

Quote

You seem to once again mix up the timelines going forward. While Aegon's conquest is underway in the Stormlands, Reach and Crownlands, this will weaken the Lannisters sufficiently for the Riverlanders to take their lands back and restore the Tully's. Especially if this coincides with the Stark return in the North and with the support of the Vale.

That is just nonsense. The Lannisters have no troops in KL or the Crownlands. Subsequently they won't suffer any losses when Aegon takes the throne. But we can be pretty sure that a majority is not going to look kindly on things there if Tommen/Myrcella die now, too. First there Lady was stripped naked and paraded through the streets and then Ser Kevan was murdered. This has to trigger some response. And if Catelyn hangs Genna and Emmon (which she most likely will) that will be another provocation.

The Riverlords might be able to take back their lands and oust the Freys but there in no shape to assemble a new army or fight another war. They are done.

Quote

Aegon is not going to conquer all of Westeros. He will take Dorne, the Reach, Stormlands and King's  Landing. And then Daenerys will arrive and end his reign. I highly doubt that he is also going to gain the allegiance of the Riverlands and Vale. Especially not once the Tullys recapture Riverrun, and Winterfell is returned to the Starks.

And why not? Half the Riverlords were with Rhaegar, anyway. Bonifer Hasty (now in charge of Harrenhal) is a staunch Targaryen man. The Mootons were, too.

Quote

Aegon is going to be a short blip on the radar. Not a lengthy presence in the story. By the end of Winds he will have King's Landing, but Daenerys will be on her way back as well.

So what? The Targaryens are calling the shots now. If there is war in the South people will have to decide between Aegon, Euron, and Dany. Anybody else will be a non-factor.

Quote

I think your quest for a Sansa-Aegon match up is not based on substance. And it is not consistent with your other positions, such as Stannis ruling the North with Rickon as figurehead. If Rickon is back, then Sansa means nothing to Aegon as a potential heir. Her situation is very different from Margaery's, as Margaery brought Joffrey 100,000 Tyrell swords and her Lord Father's blessing. Sansa brings none of that to Aegon.

So you think the North and Lord Rickon won't be happy that King Aegon VI has taken Lord Rickon's sister to wife? Or thank him for saving/caring for her?

This could certainly both work because, you know, Aegon might marry Sansa before anyone down south learns that Rickon is still alive. And Sansa as Aegon's queen could seriously weaken whatever hold Stannis has over the North.

Quote

The snowcastle foreshadowing makes it clear that Sansa's future plot arc involves her repaying the damage she has done to the North with her early indiscretions and misguided betrayals. There is plenty of political intrigue that needs to happen between the Vale, Riverlands and North, which will occupy an entire book or more.

Well, if all that is written into some stone castle I look for such information next winter in my own back yard. Come on, the castle expressed Sansa's longing for her home but it was destroyed. It could very well mean she is never going to return to Winterfell in her life.

Quote

And this does not mean that she is isolated from the greater Game of Thrones either. Instead, it just makes her an even more powerful player, which is obviously the 'power" that Martin is training her for (if assassin skills is Arya's power, greenseeing is Bran's, and military leadership is Jon's.)

Right now, Sansa is just hanging out with some Vale dudes. That has nothing to do with acquiring power. We'll have to wait and see. However, forging an alliance with the Riverlands or the North wouldn't make any sense for her whatsoever from a political point of view. They are mostly spent. If Sansa wants to take on her enemies and gather real power she must lead the Vale into an alliance with real powers. The Riverlands and the North will then follow her anyway due to her legal claims.

[Free Northman Reborn]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

1. Because they wanted to fight the entire time and now they have a reason to finally do so? They would be fighting for their true king not some pretender. A Targaryen king is the one thing that has the chance to unite Westeros again. And nobody more so than the son of beloved Rhaegar. People are drinking to the health of the Targaryens from White Harbor to Oldtown.

George himself complains on occasion that Seven Kingdoms are too much but now that he has so many he has to deal with them all. 2. The Vale is not just going to sit around doing nothing. And besides, the Targaryens are talked about and 

Aha. And how is that going to happen? 3.Again, Harry is still a minor so his word won't mean all that much. He might be a man grown in next spring, according to Littlefinger's original Winterfell plan, but he isn't now. 

Which effectively are a non-factor in a war.

4.That is just nonsense. The Lannisters have no troops in KL or the Crownlands. Subsequently they won't suffer any losses when Aegon takes the throne. But we can be pretty sure that a majority is not going to look kindly on things there if Tommen/Myrcella die now, too. First there Lady was stripped naked and paraded through the streets and then Ser Kevan was murdered. This has to trigger some response. And if Catelyn hangs Genna and Emmon (which she most likely will) that will be another provocation.

The Riverlords might be able to take back their lands and oust the Freys but there in no shape to assemble a new army or fight another war. They are done.

And why not? Half the Riverlords were with Rhaegar, anyway. Bonifer Hasty (now in charge of Harrenhal) is a staunch Targaryen man. The Mootons were, too.

5.So what? The Targaryens are calling the shots now. If there is war in the South people will have to decide between Aegon, Euron, and Dany. Anybody else will be a non-factor.

6.So you think the North and Lord Rickon won't be happy that King Aegon VI has taken Lord Rickon's sister to wife? Or thank him for saving/caring for her?

7.This could certainly both work because, you know, Aegon might marry Sansa before anyone down south learns that Rickon is still alive. And Sansa as Aegon's queen could seriously weaken whatever hold Stannis has over the North.

Well, if all that is written into some stone castle I look for such information next winter in my own back yard. 8.Come on, the castle expressed Sansa's longing for her home but it was destroyed. It could very well mean she is never going to return to Winterfell in her life.

9.Right now, Sansa is just hanging out with some Vale dudes. That has nothing to do with acquiring power. We'll have to wait and see. However, forging an alliance with the Riverlands or the North wouldn't make any sense for her whatsoever from a political point of view. They are mostly spent. 10.If Sansa wants to take on her enemies and gather real power she must lead the Vale into an alliance with real powers. The Riverlands and the North will then follow her anyway due to her legal claims.

Bolded section 1: Those Lords of the Vale who were eager to get involved in the War of the Five Kings, had that sentiment because they wanted to support Robb Stark, not merely for the sake of having a fight. Why would they give two hoots about Aegon? He is not their true King. he is the son of the man they defeated at the Trident in order to overthrow his family's rule.

Bolded section 2: Of course the Vale will not sit around doing nothing. I have already outlined how they are going to get involved. They are going to help restore the rule of their allies, the Tullys, and support their ally, the King in the North. They have no interest in the cause of Aegon, or Cersei, or Euron or anyone else down South.

Bolded section 3: Harry is listed as having been born in 283. That makes him 17, going on 18. Not sure why you need until next Spring for him to be a man. By then he will be 27. Besides, Daenerys is 15, Jon is 17, Loras Tyrell is 17 and so on and so forth. Age has never stopped Martin from giving characters power and authority in this series. In any case, as I have pointed out, once Sansa reveals her identity as a Stark, she will win the allegiance of all the Vale lords who wanted to support Robb in the War. This will include Yohn Royce, House Waynwood and the rest of the Lords Declarant. That will win the Vale to her cause and align with the wishes of the Lords who, according to your own argument, were chomping at the bit to get involved from the start. The difference being that it will align with the real reason they were chomping at the bit in the first place, and that was to support House Stark. Not to support some new Targaryen claimant to the Throne.

Bolded section 4: Hang on, you are going back and forth on the strength of the Lannisters. You are the one who has argued that Cersei has almost no power left. And whatever power she has will surely be further threatened by the arrival of Aegon, his defeat of the Tyrells at Storms End and his subsequent Dornish alliance thereafter. The strength of House Lannister back in the Westerlands is not the issue. The issue is the strength of the Lannister/Tyrell supported crown to enforce the demotion of House Tully in the Riverlands. With Aegon threatening the Crown's very survival, this will inevitably leave zero resources to oppose any Tully restoration in the Riverlands. The Freys are on their own now, and will be deposed in short order, with the Tullys getting back Riverrun.

As for the Riverlords. Why are they done? How many troops have they actually lost in the War? 10,000? 20,000? We never saw more than 10,000-20,000 troops from them in the entire War. This from possibly the second most populous kingdom in Westeros? If united they have thousands more troops to raise.

Bolded section 5: This is your ultimate fantasy. That the Targaryens are the only players now. The entire point of my argument is that the Northern Alliance creates an alternative powerbloc representing a potential 70,000 remaining troops. The factions that I see emerging are Aegon on the one side, the doomed Cersei/Tyrell alliance in the middle, Daenerys with her unknown foreign contingent as a third, and the Northern Alliance as a fourth. 1,2 and 3 will weaken and in some cases annihilate themselves by warfare against each other, with the Northern faction sitting aside, building their strength until only the Northern Alliance and Daenerys remains. Which can then lead to some kind of marriage alliance between Jon and Daenerys (which I don't like, but which you plausibly present as a solution to the division).

Bolded section 6: Many problems with this argument. Firstly, if Stannis rules the North as you suggest, then no, he will not be happy with Aegon marrying Sansa. And if Stannis is gone, then no, the North won't be happy with Aegon using Sansa to stake a competing claim to the North. And thirdly, as I pointed out already, Aegon has no motive to marry Sansa, as she brings nothing to the  table if not married to Harry the Heir. So it is a non-starter. Aegon is marrying Arriane.

Bolded section 7: Why would Aegon marry Sansa, who has a tenuous claim to the distant, inaccessible and divided North, when he could instead marry Arriane for tens of thousands of Dornish troops immediately at his disposal? It makes no sense whatsoever.

Bolded section 8 about the snow castle: Come on, the Snow castle is utterly clear foreshadowing that Sansa will be involved in the restoration of Winterfell/the North. I find it astounding that you dismiss it as casually as you do. I can only imagine that it runs against your narrative and therefore forces you to discount it. This  is one clear area where the Show has leapfrogged a lot of the book plot and brought Sansa to the North prematurely, but in line with Martin's ultimate intention.

Bolded section 9: Right now Sansa is establishing her hold over Harry. The sample chapter is clear about where this is leading. Her entire arc is meaningless there unless she gains that power over the Vale. How Martin makes it happen will be interesting, but that he is going there cannot really be doubted.

Last bolded line: Who are these enemies that you think Sansa needs to target? Tywin is dead. Joffrey is dead. Tyrion is gone. The Freys are about to be done for. The Boltons too. The only person who remains is Cersei, and Aegon will take care of her on his own. He will be ruling in King's Landing by the end of Winds. With Arriane by his side. Sansa's goal can only be to restore the North, and use her influence to achieve that in the best way possible. To go chasing off after a doomed Cersei, as Aegon's mistress or paramour is not a worthy goal, nor is it achievable, given that it will require her abandoning Harry and thus giving up any influence she has over the Vale.

To conclude, I think your arguments on this issue are weak. And not based on a fair reading of the evidence. The narrative is not going in the way you are predicting in this case. Aegon will rise, Arriane will be his  bride, and Cersei will fall. But Sansa will not be involved in that plotline. She will focus on the  Vale-Riverlands-North intrigue. And on getting out from under Littlefinger's control, to become a player in her own right. I expect Shadrack the Mad Mouse, Brienne, the Hound and even Arya to come into play to help her achieve this.

[Lord Varys]

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 1: Those Lords of the Vale who were eager to get involved in the War of the Five Kings, had that sentiment because they wanted to support Robb Stark, not merely for the sake of having a fight. Why would they give two hoots about Aegon? He is not their true King. he is the son of the man they defeated at the Trident in order to overthrow his family's rule.

Certain lords in the Vale stayed true to King Aerys. And you are conveniently forgetting that the Lords of the Vale fought for Robert Baratheon and Jon Arryn. They have nothing invested in some (dead) Starks. I mean, the very idea that the Lords of the Vale would want to the cause of Northern independence is ridiculous. How would they profit from that? Lord Harrold might like the idea to install as Lady of Winterfell because that means that he would control two vast lordships, but what would be the point of doing this via some secessionist kingdoms? That would only cause problems.

Yohn Royce didn't have the guts to stand by Ned Stark side when Cersei staged her coup, suggesting that these houses were never really close. Jocelyn Stark married into the lesser branch of House Royce, after all. More importantly, he also didn't have the guts to defy Lysa on the whole War of the Five Kings issue. Don't expect any heroics from this guy.

Besides, the point why any Lords of the Vale wanted to involve themselves in the war was because the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn. That is why a majority of Lysa's suitors also wanted Tyrion dead. They don't give a fig about the Starks.

And even if Sansa's distant kin - the Waynwoods, Corbrays, Templetons - now discover their love for her then there is no reason why the way to Winterfell could not lead through Aegon and a Targaryen restoration in the middle of winter. If they help make the new king they could demand something in return - Sansa installation as Lady of Winterfell, for instance, if that's what Sansa wants.

An independent North or people caring about an independent North only exist in your mind. Especially in the Vale. Why would they not want to play the big game if they can?

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 2: Of course the Vale will not sit around doing nothing. I have already outlined how they are going to get involved. They are going to help restore the rule of their allies, the Tullys, and support their ally, the King in the North. They have no interest in the cause of Aegon, or Cersei, or Euron or anyone else down South.

How do you know that? Did you ask them? By the way - what King in the North? Right now there is none, and if there is one in the books it will take quite some time.

I'm really baffled by the idea that Littlefinger wouldn't react to the Aegon thing in the books. That is going to cause trouble in the Vale, and why the hell should Sansa not try to get back at her enemies and the people who fucked with her (Cersei and the Tyrells) when she can? Especially in a situation in which she could actually try to become queen. That is what she wanted to be in the beginning, and that is what she is good at (when you reread her chapter during the Blackwater you'll realize this). More importantly, she is receiving training from Littlefinger who should instill ambition and kindle a desire for power in her.

She is already going along with the murder of her cousin, Lord Robert, so she certainly might have big dreams rather than doomed dreams about secession and independence. Why take the North when you can have everything?

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 3: Harry is listed as having been born in 283. That makes him 17, going on 18. Not sure why you need until next Spring for him to be a man. By then he will be 27.

That is a mistake from the App. If Harry was a man grown then Littlefinger could not have possibly gone through Lady Waynwood to arrange the marriage, nor would his claim that Lady Waynwood would not force Harry to marry Alayne make any sense because Lady Waynwood couldn't force a man grown who isn't a member of her house to do anything. And most certainly not the heir presumptive of the Vale of Arryn.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Besides, Daenerys is 15, Jon is 17, Loras Tyrell is 17 and so on and so forth. Age has never stopped Martin from giving characters power and authority in this series.

Well, Harry certainly lacks the power to arrange his own marriage, no?

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, as I have pointed out, once Sansa reveals her identity as a Stark, she will win the allegiance of all the Vale lords who wanted to support Robb in the War. This will include Yohn Royce, House Waynwood and the rest of the Lords Declarant. That will win the Vale to her cause and align with the wishes of the Lords who, according to your own argument, were chomping at the bit to get involved from the start. The difference being that it will align with the real reason they were chomping at the bit in the first place, and that was to support House Stark. Not to support some new Targaryen claimant to the Throne.

Again: How do you know that? Did you ask them? And again: Supporting the cause of House Stark and supporting a Targaryen pretender in his war are only mutually exclusive in your mind, not in mine (and not in general).

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 4: Hang on, you are going back and forth on the strength of the Lannisters. You are the one who has argued that Cersei has almost no power left. And whatever power she has will surely be further threatened by the arrival of Aegon, his defeat of the Tyrells at Storms End and his subsequent Dornish alliance thereafter. The strength of House Lannister back in the Westerlands is not the issue. The issue is the strength of the Lannister/Tyrell supported crown to enforce the demotion of House Tully in the Riverlands. With Aegon threatening the Crown's very survival, this will inevitably leave zero resources to oppose any Tully restoration in the Riverlands. The Freys are on their own now, and will be deposed in short order, with the Tullys getting back Riverrun.

Aha. So the tens of thousands of men the West still has at its disposal cannot regroup and eventually march against somebody? The Lannisters and other Lords of the West who are in charge of those men have nothing to do with the situation in KL - and that fact enables them to do something about the situation. I mean, you know that Robb Stark called his father's banners when said father was imprisoned by King Joffrey, right? How do you think Daven, Damion, and the other Lannister cousins and Lords of the West will react when they learn about Cersei's walk and Ser Kevan's murder? I guess you don't think they will just ignore all that?

Cersei cannot get any men to her aid in KL right now. Because an army has to be assembled and march to KL first. But this doesn't mean the West will do nothing.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the Riverlords. Why are they done? How many troops have they actually lost in the War? 10,000? 20,000? We never saw more than 10,000-20,000 troops from them in the entire War. This from possibly the second most populous kingdom in Westeros? If united they have thousands more troops to raise.

Well, pretty much all the lands of every prominent lord in the Riverlands has been scorched repeatedly by Lannister hosts. Just reread the books and check what happened to the Bracken, Blackwood, Darry, Whent, Mooton, and Mallister lands. Thanks to Edmure's stupid decision in the end of AGoT Tywin took them out piece by piece.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 5: This is your ultimate fantasy. That the Targaryens are the only players now. The entire point of my argument is that the Northern Alliance creates an alternative powerbloc representing a potential 70,000 remaining troops. The factions that I see emerging are Aegon on the one side, the doomed Cersei/Tyrell alliance in the middle, Daenerys with her unknown foreign contingent as a third, and the Northern Alliance as a fourth. 1,2 and 3 will weaken and in some cases annihilate themselves by warfare against each other, with the Northern faction sitting aside, building their strength until only the Northern Alliance and Daenerys remains. Which can then lead to some kind of marriage alliance between Jon and Daenerys (which I don't like, but which you plausibly present as a solution to the division).

Well, I don't think anyone in Westeros is now stupid enough to think you can continue the secessionist thing. Especially not in the North because, you know, the Others. The very idea that anyone would want to create 'an alternative powerbloc' is completely insane in realpolitik environment. The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Aegon is the friend of the Riverlords because he the enemy of the Lannisters/Tyrells. Aegon is also a potential friend of the Vale and Sansa, just as Dany can be the best friend of the Northmen in the future. Nobody would be stupid enough to continue some doomed independence scheme if your very survival is at stake.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 6: Many problems with this argument. Firstly, if Stannis rules the North as you suggest, then no, he will not be happy with Aegon marrying Sansa. And if Stannis is gone, then no, the North won't be happy with Aegon using Sansa to stake a competing claim to the North. And thirdly, as I pointed out already, Aegon has no motive to marry Sansa, as she brings nothing to the  table if not married to Harry the Heir. So it is a non-starter. Aegon is marrying Arriane.

We don't know that for certainty. But even if Aegon did marry Arianne - how the hell can Littlefinger and Sansa know that in advance? More importantly, Sansa certainly would offer Aegon more than Arianne ever could - a legal claim to the North. It could easily turn out that Aegon has no need to buy Dorne's allegiance through a marriage. They have no other choice but to support him if they want their revenge and not look like utter cowards. He is Elia's son, after all.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section 7: Why would Aegon marry Sansa, who has a tenuous claim to the distant, inaccessible and divided North, when he could instead marry Arriane for tens of thousands of Dornish troops immediately at his disposal? It makes no sense whatsoever.

Again, only if Arianne doesn't join him anyway. Once the Dornish troops are committed to his cause there is no turning back. And the news about Daenerys disappearance/alleged death and Quentyn's demise are not going to travel by light speed to Storm's End. Dorne may be forced to commit itself to Aegon's cause before they have good knowledge about Quentyn and Dany.

It is not very likely that Aegon is going to marry anyone in the midst of battle.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Bolded section about the snow castle: Come on, the Snow castle is utterly clear foreshadowing that Sansa will be involved in the restoration of Winterfell/the North. I find it astounding that you dismiss it as casually as you do. I can only imagine that it runs against your narrative and therefore forces you to discount it. This  is one clear area where the Show has leapfrogged a lot of the book plot and brought Sansa to the North prematurely, but in line with Martin's ultimate intention.

Sansa could certainly play a role in some Northern restoration. But that doesn't mean she has to go there and cannot ally herself with a Targaryen (or anybody else, really) in the process.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Second last bolded line: Right now Sansa is establishing her hold over Harry. The sample chapter is clear about where this is leading. Her entire arc is meaningless there unless she gains that power over the Vale. How Martin makes it happen will be interesting, but that he is going there cannot really be doubted.

From Alayne 1 we have no clue in which direction things are going. There is not just Aegon to consider, but also Ser Shadrich, what's going on in the Vale itself, the eventual fate of Lord Robert, and a ton of other things. Like Littlefinger's plans. The idea that Sansa is going to die soon is ridiculous. He'll stick around for a long while and Sansa might actually follow his teachings and examples.

We don't even have an idea whether Sansa is interested in marrying Harry. She may change her mind.

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Last bolded line: Who are these enemies that you think Sansa needs to target? Tywin is dead. Joffrey is dead. Tyrion is gone. The Freys are about to be done for. The Boltons too. The only person who remains is Cersei, and Aegon will take care of her on his own. He will be ruling in King's Landing by the end of Winds. With Arriane by his side. Sansa's goal can only be to restore the North, and use her influence to achieve that in the best way possible. To go chasing off after a doomed Cersei, as Aegon's mistress or paramour is not a worthy goal, nor is it achievable, given that it will require her abandoning Harry and thus giving up any influence she has over the Vale.

Well, no. Sansa's goal is whatever Sansa's goal will be. You don't know what that is. I'm not saying a version of your ideas is completely impossible but I don't see Sansa and the Vale doing nothing until they learn about some King in the North whom they could now support.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Certain lords in the Vale stayed true to King Aerys. And you are conveniently forgetting that the Lords of the Vale fought for Robert Baratheon and Jon Arryn. They have nothing invested in some (dead) Starks. I mean, the very idea that the Lords of the Vale would want to the cause of Northern independence is ridiculous. How would they profit from that? Lord Harrold might like the idea to install as Lady of Winterfell because that means that he would control two vast lordships, but what would be the point of doing this via some secessionist kingdoms? That would only cause problems.

Yohn Royce didn't have the guts to stand by Ned Stark side when Cersei staged her coup, suggesting that these houses were never really close. Jocelyn Stark married into the lesser branch of House Royce, after all. More importantly, he also didn't have the guts to defy Lysa on the whole War of the Five Kings issue. Don't expect any heroics from this guy.

Besides, the point why any Lords of the Vale wanted to involve themselves in the war was because the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn. That is why a majority of Lysa's suitors also wanted Tyrion dead. They don't give a fig about the Starks.

And even if Sansa's distant kin - the Waynwoods, Corbrays, Templetons - now discover their love for her then there is no reason why the way to Winterfell could not lead through Aegon and a Targaryen restoration in the middle of winter. If they help make the new king they could demand something in return - Sansa installation as Lady of Winterfell, for instance, if that's what Sansa wants.

An independent North or people caring about an independent North only exist in your mind. Especially in the Vale. Why would they not want to play the big game if they can?

How do you know that? Did you ask them? By the way - what King in the North? Right now there is none, and if there is one in the books it will take quite some time.

I'm really baffled by the idea that Littlefinger wouldn't react to the Aegon thing in the books. That is going to cause trouble in the Vale, and why the hell should Sansa not try to get back at her enemies and the people who fucked with her (Cersei and the Tyrells) when she can? Especially in a situation in which she could actually try to become queen. That is what she wanted to be in the beginning, and that is what she is good at (when you reread her chapter during the Blackwater you'll realize this). More importantly, she is receiving training from Littlefinger who should instill ambition and kindle a desire for power in her.

She is already going along with the murder of her cousin, Lord Robert, so she certainly might have big dreams rather than doomed dreams about secession and independence. Why take the North when you can have everything?

That is a mistake from the App. If Harry was a man grown then Littlefinger could not have possibly gone through Lady Waynwood to arrange the marriage, nor would his claim that Lady Waynwood would not force Harry to marry Alayne make any sense because Lady Waynwood couldn't force a man grown who isn't a member of her house to do anything. And most certainly not the heir presumptive of the Vale of Arryn.

Well, Harry certainly lacks the power to arrange his own marriage, no?

Again: How do you know that? Did you ask them? And again: Supporting the cause of House Stark and supporting a Targaryen pretender in his war are only mutually exclusive in your mind, not in mine (and not in general).

Aha. So the tens of thousands of men the West still has at its disposal cannot regroup and eventually march against somebody? The Lannisters and other Lords of the West who are in charge of those men have nothing to do with the situation in KL - and that fact enables them to do something about the situation. I mean, you know that Robb Stark called his father's banners when said father was imprisoned by King Joffrey, right? How do you think Daven, Damion, and the other Lannister cousins and Lords of the West will react when they learn about Cersei's walk and Ser Kevan's murder? I guess you don't think they will just ignore all that?

Cersei cannot get any men to her aid in KL right now. Because an army has to be assembled and march to KL first. But this doesn't mean the West will do nothing.

Well, pretty much all the lands of every prominent lord in the Riverlands has been scorched repeatedly by Lannister hosts. Just reread the books and check what happened to the Bracken, Blackwood, Darry, Whent, Mooton, and Mallister lands. Thanks to Edmure's stupid decision in the end of AGoT Tywin took them out piece by piece.

Well, I don't think anyone in Westeros is now stupid enough to think you can continue the secessionist thing. Especially not in the North because, you know, the Others. The very idea that anyone would want to create 'an alternative powerbloc' is completely insane in realpolitik environment. The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Aegon is the friend of the Riverlords because he the enemy of the Lannisters/Tyrells. Aegon is also a potential friend of the Vale and Sansa, just as Dany can be the best friend of the Northmen in the future. Nobody would be stupid enough to continue some doomed independence scheme if your very survival is at stake.

We don't know that for certainty. But even if Aegon did marry Arianne - how the hell can Littlefinger and Sansa know that in advance? More importantly, Sansa certainly would offer Aegon more than Arianne ever could - a legal claim to the North. It could easily turn out that Aegon has no need to buy Dorne's allegiance through a marriage. They have no other choice but to support him if they want their revenge and not look like utter cowards. He is Elia's son, after all.

Again, only if Arianne doesn't join him anyway. Once the Dornish troops are committed to his cause there is no turning back. And the news about Daenerys disappearance/alleged death and Quentyn's demise are not going to travel by light speed to Storm's End. Dorne may be forced to commit itself to Aegon's cause before they have good knowledge about Quentyn and Dany.

It is not very likely that Aegon is going to marry anyone in the midst of battle.

Sansa could certainly play a role in some Northern restoration. But that doesn't mean she has to go there and cannot ally herself with a Targaryen (or anybody else, really) in the process.

From Alayne 1 we have no clue in which direction things are going. There is not just Aegon to consider, but also Ser Shadrich, what's going on in the Vale itself, the eventual fate of Lord Robert, and a ton of other things. Like Littlefinger's plans. The idea that Sansa is going to die soon is ridiculous. He'll stick around for a long while and Sansa might actually follow his teachings and examples.

We don't even have an idea whether Sansa is interested in marrying Harry. She may change her mind.

Well, no. Sansa's goal is whatever Sansa's goal will be. You don't know what that is. I'm not saying a version of your ideas is completely impossible but I don't see Sansa and the Vale doing nothing until they learn about some King in the North whom they could now support.

 

A lot of territory being covered so I will break my argument down into bite sized chunks, for clarity's sake.

Firstly, the timeline. Sansa has only just met Harry the Heir, and there seems significant plot left before she gets to a position of prominence in the Vale. Aegon has already taken Storms End, and is about to defeat the Tyrell army and nail down the Dornish alliance - almost certainly via a betrothal to Arriane.

By the time that Sansa is able to get involved in this plot, Aegon will be close to taking King's Landing, with Arriane by his side. Too much has to still happen in the Vale plot before Sansa can be come a player on a continental scale.

Next, regarding what Sansa offers. Without Harry, all she offers is the North. Why should that appeal to Aegon? The North is the Kingdom least able to offer him physical support in his quest for the Throne. And even the North is something she cannot offer to him until the Boltons/Stannis/Rickon storyline is resolved.

So in reality, she offers little value to Aegon in his immediate quest to conquer Westeros. I can see why there is appeal in the drama and intrique that Sansa plunging back into King's Landing politics offers the reader, but it really does not make sense from a political point of view for Aegon to marry Sansa. She simply is not a great prospect, unless she brings both the Vale and the Riverlands with her too. And she does not.

More on other aspects later.

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

A lot of territory being covered so I will break my argument down into bite sized chunks, for clarity's sake.

Firstly, the timeline. Sansa has only just met Harry the Heir, and there seems significant plot left before she gets her to a position of prominence in the Vale. Aegon has already taken Storms End, and is about to defeat the Tyrell army and nail down the Dornish alliance - almost certainly via a betrothal to Arriane.

We don't know that. Because we don't know how Arianne will react to Aegon. Perhaps she is going to be convinced that Aegon is her cousin? Perhaps she decides to support Aegon for the time being (to get his assistance in removing the Lannister-Tyrell regime) and intends to later stab him in the back when Dany and Quentyn come? After all, if they come they would have dragons and Aegon might then effectively so surrounded by Martell spears that he could easily be deposed/killed.

The point is that the news of Aegon's arrival will quickly travel to the Vale and this is going to cause a reaction from Littlefinger regardless where the Harry plan is at that point. He could easily enough make new plans, right?

The idea that the Vale as a collective would just continue to sit on their asses while another war began outside their borders makes little sense. Both the Lannisters/Tyrells and Aegon would ask the Vale for its help, and if Littlefinger doesn't take charge and leads them to war on this or that side then the Lords of the Vale might decide to ignore him if they see gain in that. He isn't the Lord Arryn, after all, and not exactly popular.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

By the time that Sansa is able to get involved in this plot, Aegon will be close to taking King's Landing, with Arriane by his side. Too much has to still happen in the Vale plot before Sansa can be come a player on a continental scale.

She doesn't have to. Littlefinger is in charge of the Vale. And he is not going to disappear soon. If that was the plan then Sansa could have spilled the beans to Yohn Royce in AFfC, no?

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Next, regarding what Sansa offers. Without Harry, all she offers is the North. Why should that appeal to Aegon? The North is the Kingdom least able to offer him physical support in his quest for the Throne. And even the North is something she cannot offer to him until the Boltons/Stannis/Rickon storyline is resolved.

The idea is that the Vale declares for Aegon and supports him with troops at KL. Littlefinger can easily make such a decision as Lord Protector, not to mention that the Lords of the Vale might be eager to finally avenge Jon Arryn by removing the Lannister regime.

Sansa certainly can offer Aegon the prospect of taking possession of the North. Just as Sansa very much embodied the same prospect because she is the sole remaining child of Eddard Stark when she was supposed to marry Willas Tyrell and eventually did marry Tyrion Lannister. The plan was that Tyrion and Sansa would eventually take possession of the North after Roose and Stannis and ripped each other apart.

And considering that you always talk about Sansa's Tully claims - Aegon could also be interested in them. If he actually married Sansa both the North, the Vale, and the Riverlords would either support him or not oppose him - which would both be help his campaign.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So in reality, she offers little value to Aegon in his immediate quest to conquer Westeros. I can see why there is appeal in the drama and intrique that Sansa plunging back into King's Landing politics offers the reader, but it really does not make sense from a political point of view for Aegon to marry Sansa. She simply is not a great prospect, unless she brings both the Vale and the Riverlands with her too. And she does not.

That depends. Again, the idea is not that there is a marriage alliance made before the Vale intervenes. The idea is that the Vale declares for Aegon and then later forces him to marry Sansa Stark.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know that. Because we don't know how Arianne will react to Aegon. Perhaps she is going to be convinced that Aegon is her cousin? Perhaps she decides to support Aegon for the time being (to get his assistance in removing the Lannister-Tyrell regime) and intends to later stab him in the back when Dany and Quentyn come? After all, if they come they would have dragons and Aegon might then effectively so surrounded by Martell spears that he could easily be deposed/killed.

The point is that the news of Aegon's arrival will quickly travel to the Vale and this is going to cause a reaction from Littlefinger regardless where the Harry plan is at that point. He could easily enough make new plans, right?

The idea that the Vale as a collective would just continue to sit on their asses while another war began outside their borders makes little sense. Both the Lannisters/Tyrells and Aegon would ask the Vale for its help, and if Littlefinger doesn't take charge and leads them to war on this or that side then the Lords of the Vale might decide to ignore him if they see gain in that. He isn't the Lord Arryn, after all, and not exactly popular.

She doesn't have to. Littlefinger is in charge of the Vale. And he is not going to disappear soon. If that was the plan then Sansa could have spilled the beans to Yohn Royce in AFfC, no?

The idea is that the Vale declares for Aegon and supports him with troops at KL. Littlefinger can easily make such a decision as Lord Protector, not to mention that the Lords of the Vale might be eager to finally avenge Jon Arryn by removing the Lannister regime.

Sansa certainly can offer Aegon the prospect of taking possession of the North. Just as Sansa very much embodied the same prospect because she is the sole remaining child of Eddard Stark when she was supposed to marry Willas Tyrell and eventually did marry Tyrion Lannister. The plan was that Tyrion and Sansa would eventually take possession of the North after Roose and Stannis and ripped each other apart.

And considering that you always talk about Sansa's Tully claims - Aegon could also be interested in them. If he actually married Sansa both the North, the Vale, and the Riverlords would either support him or not oppose him - which would both be help his campaign.

That depends. Again, the idea is not that there is a marriage alliance made before the Vale intervenes. The idea is that the Vale declares for Aegon and then later forces him to marry Sansa Stark.

Out of interest, how does this play out then? So Sansa is then married to Aegon. And the Vale is allied to him.Then Daenerys arrives and Aegon is killed. How does Sansa emerge from this in your scenario? As a loyal supporter of Daenerys now all of a sudden?

How does your scenario go to its logical conclusion?

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Out of interest, how does this play out then? So Sansa is then married to Aegon. And the Vale is allied to him.Then Daenerys arrives and Aegon is killed. How does Sansa emerge from this in your scenario? As a loyal supporter of Daenerys now all of a sudden?

How does your scenario go to its logical conclusion?

No idea. I'm not the author and do not presume to predict how exactly the books will end. All I can do is speculate a little bit.

It would depend how Aegon goes down (we don't know he'll die, by the way - kings can be deposed without being killed, after all). 

If Sansa gets pregnant and gives Aegon a son then this child could actually be adopted by Dany as her heir if she ends up being barren after all.

Sansa/Littlefinger might easily jump ship from Aegon to Dany if it turned out that Aegon was either unwilling or incapable of dealing with the crisis posed by the Others. Sansa would certainly not want to abandon her people to a bunch of wights.

Not to mention that we don't even know whether Dany or Euron will become the biggest problem for Aegon. If Euron takes the Iron Throne from Aegon then Sansa might be on the run, looking for new allies, eventually joining Dany. Or she could even flee North in such a setting (although that would depend on what has happened in between up there - she wouldn't go there if Others and wights are everywhere).

If you think about what might happen in the future you have to keep in mind that the novels actually contain plot and plot twists, and introduce new characters and elements.

Nobody foresaw the rise of the Faith Militant in AFfC or Aegon's landing in ADwD. Nobody predicted the Red Wedding before ASoS came out, and so on. Speculating how things stand in the second or third book from now make little sense. Okay, we can be pretty sure that Dany will eventually reach Westeros but we have effectively no idea who will then join or oppose her because we don't know what's going to happen in Westeros in the meantime.

We can also be reasonably sure that the Wall will fall and the Others will attack at a certain point in the future. But we don't have any idea about the details and cannot predict any of them while we don't yet know when exactly that will happen.

[Commander Jon Snow]

Here's my guess what it tells us:

- The Boltons are eventually deposed

- Jon will be crowned King in the North

- Sansa will end up in the North

We are moving towards the endgame and D&D know the ending of all the major characters. If Sansa is in the North, it tells me that her storyline will go there in the books as well. The journey will be different but the end will be the same

[Free Northman Reborn]

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No idea. I'm not the author and do not presume to predict how exactly the books will end. All I can do is speculate a little bit.

It would depend how Aegon goes down (we don't know he'll die, by the way - kings can be deposed without being killed, after all). 

If Sansa gets pregnant and gives Aegon a son then this child could actually be adopted by Dany as her heir if she ends up being barren after all.

Sansa/Littlefinger might easily jump ship from Aegon to Dany if it turned out that Aegon was either unwilling or incapable of dealing with the crisis posed by the Others. Sansa would certainly not want to abandon her people to a bunch of wights.

Not to mention that we don't even know whether Dany or Euron will become the biggest problem for Aegon. If Euron takes the Iron Throne from Aegon then Sansa might be on the run, looking for new allies, eventually joining Dany. Or she could even flee North in such a setting (although that would depend on what has happened in between up there - she wouldn't go there if Others and wights are everywhere).

If you think about what might happen in the future you have to keep in mind that the novels actually contain plot and plot twists, and introduce new characters and elements.

Nobody foresaw the rise of the Faith Militant in AFfC or Aegon's landing in ADwD. Nobody predicted the Red Wedding before ASoS came out, and so on. Speculating how things stand in the second or third book from now make little sense. Okay, we can be pretty sure that Dany will eventually reach Westeros but we have effectively no idea who will then join or oppose her because we don't know what's going to happen in Westeros in the meantime.

We can also be reasonably sure that the Wall will fall and the Others will attack at a certain point in the future. But we don't have any idea about the details and cannot predict any of them while we don't yet know when exactly that will happen.

Lord Varys

Naturally we can analyse various sub-plots to death, and I will delve into some of those in more detail when I have a bit more time. For now, I guess my biggest disagreement is that it really comes across as if every one of your scenarios seem to have the stars align almost magically in favour of a united Westeros just falling into Daenerys's lap soon after she arrives.

In your scenario:

- Arriane potentially holds back from marrying Aegon long enough to jump ship and  join with Daenerys.

- Sansa is quite happy to marry Aegon then jump over to Daenerys's side in time to face the Others, despite her having deposed the apparently noble, attractive and princely Aegon, who was everything Sansa could have dreamed of in a husband

- The Vale go over to Aegon, only to happily align with Daenerys after his defeat

- The Riverlands side with Aegon, only to go over to Daenerys when she arrives

- The North is only too happy to join with whoever mercifully pays them some attention, according to you.

- Aegon, even though he is defeated, conveniently leaves his son in Sansa's belly, to become Daenerys's adopted heir.

- Even Arya becomes part of Daenerys's plot in your book, to become a follower of hers in her quest for vengeance.

At that rate, what need does Daenerys have of marrying Jon or doing anything other than acting as a goddess descended to Earth, to save Westeros in their hour of desperation? I just don't believe the story is nearly as one sided as that. And I think the story would be a lot more boring if Daenerys the Saviour just came and made everyone else ride on her coattails to the conclusion of the conflict.

That is the major, major problem I have with many of your scenarios.

[Lord Varys]

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Naturally we can analyse various sub-plots to death, and I will delve into some of those in more detail when I have a bit more time. For now, I guess my biggest disagreement is that it really comes across as if every one of your scenarios seem to have the stars align almost magically in favour of a united Westeros just falling into Daenerys's lap soon after she arrives.

No, she will have to conquer it. Or at least topple whoever is in charge at the time she arrives. While I don't think there will be much actual conventional warfare there could be sea battles and other interesting things involved in that. Both Dany and Euron might even conduct magical warfare (Euron has himself, Cersei has Qyburn, Dany has Marwyn and Moqorro).

And whatever unity there is won't matter because it will be unity of suffering due to winter and the Others.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- Arriane potentially holds back from marrying Aegon long enough to jump ship and  join with Daenerys.

Actually, I was arguing that Sansa might do that. Arianne won't. And Arianne and Sansa both marrying Aegon isn't mutually exclusive. Targaryen polygamy could be revived.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- Sansa is quite happy to marry Aegon then jump over to Daenerys's side in time to face the Others, despite her having deposed the apparently noble, attractive and princely Aegon, who was everything Sansa could have dreamed of in a husband.

Yeah, because he could suck as a king. Remember, Aegon is going to be a false savior. That means he has make some mistakes. And I'm not saying that this is going to happen, it is just a possibility to be tossed around. Once Dany comes things will change again. People who have declared for Aegon or Euron or Stannis or whoever will reconsider their allegiance. After all, Daenerys will come with a huge army and those people who are Aegon's and Euron's enemies at this point will inevitably consider joining her (as will the people who were suffering under the reigns of these two kings).

Not to mention that the people around the place where Dany lands will definitely join her just as the Stormlords are now joining Aegon. They have no other choice.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- The Vale go over to Aegon, only to happily align with Daenerys after his defeat.

Could be. Or not. It is also possible that Sansa does indeed end up going north while Aegon rules, perhaps in attempt to subdue Stannis or whoever else rules in the North at this point. If Aegon ends up taking the threat of the Others seriously he might actually send people up there.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- The Riverlands side with Aegon, only to go over to Daenerys when she arrives.

I don't think the Riverlords will join anyone. I said they would declare for Aegon. They will mostly remain a non-factor militarily because they are spent. But them declaring for a new king certainly will send a message.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- The North is only too happy to join with whoever mercifully pays them some attention, according to you.

Sure they are. They will need help in winter and with the Others. They are not going to get that by making demands.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- Aegon, even though he is defeated, conveniently leaves his son in Sansa's belly, to become Daenerys's adopted heir.

Well, it would be a nice ending for Sansa to be the mother of the next king, wouldn't it? And if Dany (and zombie Jon) end up being infertile then somebody has to continue the dynasty. Arianne could also be the mother of such a prince.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

- Even Arya becomes part of Daenerys's plot in your book, to become a follower of hers in her quest for vengeance.

I think it is obvious that Arya's plot has been cut short in the show. It simply makes no sense. In the books it will take Dany a lot of time to go to Westeros so there is every chance that Arya gets involved in an important political assassin story of her own. She could also be dispatched to take out Stannis' rivals in Westeros but considering that Arya knows a lot of important people in Westeros it is very unlikely the Faceless Men would use her in such a way.

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

At that rate, what need does Daenerys have of marrying Jon or doing anything other than acting as a goddess descended to Earth, to save Westeros in their hour of desperation? I just don't believe the story is nearly as one sided as that. And I think the story would be a lot more boring if Daenerys the Saviour just came and made everyone else ride on her coattails to the conclusion of the conflict.

You repeat that, but this isn't my scenario. I never said Dany would heroically save everybody. I said her people and her dragons will become important in the coming war against the Others. A war Daenerys will lead according to her own prophetic dream. But that doesn't mean she will be sole hero, or be particularly important during the actual fighting (she isn't a warrior, after all) aside from the stuff you can do on dragonback.

And I think that the people will finally realize (too late) that they have to unite to face the Others. If Dany arrives only after the Wall has fallen then her she will come as a much needed helper and savior thanks to her huge army. If not then she will still be the focal point to unite Westeros against the Others because that is her role in the story thanks to all the prophetic foreshadowing there.

If you look at the show then this is obviously what's happening right now. Dany will conquer Westeros, cast Cersei and Euron down, marry Jon Snow (for love or dynastic purposes), and then the Others will attack. If that's the outline of the books as well (and subplots aside it is) then things will happening this way.

The fact which will make Jon Snow Dany's husband isn't going to be his political influence or military power. It will be his Targaryen ancestry. He is her nephew and the dragons have always married their own blood.

[TheLastLibrarian]

I think it will be war between Sansa and the usurper Jon Snow for Winterfell, the theme of usurping is pretty strong in the books, Stannis with his wars, Daenerys wants to retake the IT from the usurpers, Cersei usurping the IT and Jon usurping Winterfell