Heresy 188

[Black Crow]

Welcome to Heresy 188, the latest edition of the quirky thread where we take an in-depth look at the story and in particular what GRRM has referred to as the real conflict, not the Game of Thrones, but the apparent threat which lies in  the North, in the magical otherlands beyond the Wall.

Otherwise Heresy is not of itself a theory but rather a free-flowing and above all a very friendly series of open discussions about the Song of Ice and Ice and Fire.

The strength and the beauty and ultimately the value of Heresy as a critical discussion group is that it reflects diversity and open-ness. This is a thread where ideas can be discussed – and argued – freely, because above all it is about an exchange of ideas and sometimes too a remarkably well informed exchange drawing upon an astonishing broad base of literature ranging through Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness and so many others all to the way to the Táin Bó Cúailnge and the Mabinogion.

If new to the thread, don’t be intimidated by the size and scope of Heresy, or by some of the many ideas we’ve discussed here over the years since it began in 2011. This is very much a come as you are thread with no previous experience required. We’re very welcoming and we’re very good at talking in circles and we don’t mind going over old ground again, especially with a fresh pair of eyes, so just ask. You will neither be monstered, patronized nor directed to follow links, but will be engaged directly. Just be patient and observe the local house rules that the debate be conducted by reference to the text, with respect for the ideas of others, and above all with great good humour

And just a quick reminder. The run-up to Heresy bicentennial will begin in Heresy 191 with the first of a series of in-depth essays on various aspects of our discussions over the years. Some will be re-runs of the essays from the original Centennial project; others will be updated to reflect current thinking and some will be entirely new. Some of you have already very kindly volunteered and I look forward to your re-affirming your interest in contributing – or volunteering if you haven’t already done so.

Beyond that, read on…

 

[Black Crow]

And now as usual the slightly spoilerish full text of GRRM's1993  letter to his agent, Ralph Vicinanza. Things have obviously changed a bit since then but a lot of it remains relevant so If you don’t want to know, don’t read on:

October 1993

Dear Ralph,

Here are the first thirteen chapters (170 pages) of the high fantasy novel I promised you, which I'm calling A Game of Thrones. When completed, this will be the first volume in what I see as an epic trilogy with the overall title, A Song of Ice and Fire.

As you know, I don't outline my novels. I find that if I know exactly where a book is going, I lose all interest in writing it. I do, however, have some strong notions as to the overall structure of the story I'm telling, and the eventual fate of many of the principle [sic] characters in the drama.

Roughly speaking, there are three major conflicts set in motion in the chapters enclosed. These will form the major plot threads of the trilogy, intertwining with each other in what should be a complex but exciting (I hope) narrative tapestry. Each of the conflicts presents a major threat to the peace of my imaginary realm, the Seven Kingdoms, and to the lives of the principal characters.

The first threat grows from the enmity between the great houses of Lannister and Stark as it plays out in a cycle of plot, counterplot, ambition, murder, and revenge, with the iron throne of the Seven Kingdoms as the ultimate prize. This will form the backbone of the first volume of the trilogy, A Game of Thrones.

While the lion of Lannister and the direwolf of Stark snarl and scrap, however, a second and greater threat takes shape across the narrow sea, where the Dothraki horselords mass their barbarians hordes for a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords. The Dothraki invasion will be the central story of my second volume,A Dance with Dragons.

The greatest danger of all, however, comes from the north, from the icy wastes beyond the Wall, where half-forgotten demons out of legend, the inhuman others, raise cold legions of the undead and the neverborn and prepare to ride down on the winds of winter to extinguish everything that we would call "life." The only thing that stands between the Seven Kingdoms and and endless night is the Wall, and a handful of men in black called the Night's Watch. Their story will be the heart of my third volume, The Winds of Winter. The final battle will also draw together characters and plot threads left from the first two books and resolve all in one huge climax.

The thirteen chapters on hand should give you a notion as to my narrative strategy. All three books will feature a complex mosaic of intercutting points-of-view among various of my large and diverse cast of players. The cast will not always remains the same. Old characters will die, and new ones will be introduced. Some of the fatalities will include sympathetic viewpoint characters. I want the reader to feel that no one is ever completely safe, not even the characters who seem to be the heroes. The suspense always ratchets up a notch when you know that any character can die at any time.

Five central characters will make it through all three volumes, however, growing from children to adults and changing the world and themselves in the process. In a sense, my trilogy is almost a generational saga, telling the life stories of these five characters, three men and two women. The five key players are Tyrion Lannister, Daenerys Targaryen, and three of the children of Winterfell, Arya, Bran, and the bastard Jon Snow. All of them are introduced at some length in the chapters you have to hand.

This is going to be (I hope) quite an epic. Epic in its scale, epic in its action, and epic in its length. I see all three volumes as big books, running about 700 to 800 manuscript pages, so things are just barely getting underway in the thirteen chapters I've sent you.

I have quite a clear notion of how the story is going to unfold in the first volume, A Game of Thrones. Things will get a lot worse for the poor Starks before they get better, I'm afraid. Lord Eddard Stark and his wife Catelyn Tully are both doomed, and will perish at the hands of their enemies. Ned will discover what happened to his friend Jon Arryn, but before he can act on his knowledge, King Robert will have an unfortunate accident, and the throne will pass to his sullen and brutal son Joffrey, still a minor. Joffrey will not be sympathetic and Ned will be accused of treason, but before he is taken he will help his wife and his daughter escape back to Winterfell.

Each of the contending families will learn it has a member of dubious loyalty in its midst. Sansa Stark, wed to Joffrey Baratheon, will bear him a son, the heir to the throne, and when the crunch comes she will choose her husband and child over her parents and siblings, a choice she will later bitterly rue. Tyrion Lannister, meanwhile, befriend both Sansa and her sister Arya, while growing more and more disenchanted with his own family.

Young Bran will come out of his coma, after a strange prophetic dream, only to discover that he will never walk again. He will turn to magic, at first in the hope of restoring his legs, but later for its own sake. When his father Eddard Stark is executed, Bran will see the shape of doom descending on all of them, but nothing he can say will stop his brother Robb from calling the banners in rebellion. All the north will be inflamed by war. Robb will win several splendid victories, and maim Joffrey Baratheon on the battlefield, but in the end he will not be able to stand against Jaime and Tyrion Lannister and their allies. Robb Stark will die in battle, and Tyrion Lannister will besiege and burn Winterfell.

Jon Snow, the bastard, will remain in the far north. He will mature into a ranger of great daring, and ultimately will succeed his uncle as the commander of the Night's Watch. When Winterfell burns, Catelyn Stark will be forced to flee north with her son Bran and her daughter Arya. Hounded by Lannister riders, they will seek refuge at the Wall, but the men of the Night's Watch give up their families when they take the black, and Jon and Benjen will not be able to help, to Jon's anguish. It will lead to a bitter estrangement between Jon and Bran. Arya will be more forgiving... until she realizes, with terror, that she has fallen in love with Jon, who is not only her half-brother but a man of the Night's Watch, sworn to celibacy. Their passion will continue to torment Jon and Arya throughout the trilogy, until the secret of Jon's true parentage is finally revealed in the last book.

Abandoned by the Night's Watch, Catelyn and her children will find their only hope of safety lies even further north, beyond the Wall, where they fall into the hands of Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall, and get a dreadful glimpse of the inhuman others as they attack the wildling encampment. Bran's magic, Arya's sword Needle, and the savagery of their direwolves will help them survive, but their mother Catelyn will die at the hands of the others.

Over across the narrow sea, Daenerys Targaryen will discover that her new husband, the Dothraki Khal Drogo, has little interest in invading the Seven Kingdoms, much to her brother's frustration. When Viserys presses his claims past the point of tact or wisdom, Khal Drogo will finally grow annoyed and kill him out of hand, eliminating the Targaryen pretender and leaving Daenerys as the last of her line. Daenerys will bide her time, but she will not forget. When the moment is right, she will kill her husband to avenge her brother, and then flee with a trusted friend into the wilderness beyond Vaes Dothrak. There, hunted by Dothraki bloodriders [?] of her life, she stumbles on a cache of dragon's eggs [?] of a young dragon will give Daenerys the power to bend the Dothraki to her will. Then she begins to plan for her invasion of the Seven Kingdoms.

Tyrion Lannister will continue to travel, to plot, and to play the game of thrones, finally removing his nephew Joffrey in disgust at the boy king's brutality. Jaime Lannister will follow Joffrey on the throne of the Seven Kingdoms, by the simple expedient of killing everyone ahead of him in the line of succession and blaming his brother Tyrion for the murders. Exiled, Tyrion will change sides, making common cause with surviving Starks to bring his brother down, and falling helplessly in love with Arya Stark while he's at it. His passion is, alas, unreciprocated, but no less intense for that, and it will lead to a deadly rivalry between Tyrion and Snow.

[7 Lines Redacted]

But that's the second book...

I hope you'll find some editors who are as excited about all of this as I am. Feel free to share this letter with anyone who wants to know how the story will go.

All best,

George R.R. Martin

What’s in that redacted passage we don’t know but here’s what appears to be the equally spoilerish original synopsis/publisher’s blurb for Winds of Winter; not the forthcoming one, alas, but one apparently dating back to when it was still to be the third volume of the trilogy and following directly on in content and style from the first synopsis set out above:

Continuing the most imaginative and ambitious epic fantasy since The Lord of the Rings Winter has come at last and no man can say whether it will ever go again. The Wall is broken, the cold dead legions are coming south, and the people of the Seven Kingdoms turn to their queen to protect them. But Daenerys Targaryen is learning what Robert Baratheon learned before her; that it is one thing to win a throne and quite another to sit on one. Before she can hope to defeat the Others, Dany knows she must unite the broken realm behind her. Wolf and lion must hunt together, maester and greenseer work as one, all the blood feuds must be put aside, the bitter rivals and sworn enemies join hands. The Winds of Winter tells the story of Dany’s fight to save her new-won kingdom, of two desperate journeys beyond the known world in to the very hearts of ice and fire, and of the final climactic battle at Winterfell, with life itself in the balance.

 

 

[Black Crow]

OK, just to continue the discussion from the last page of Heresy 187:

 

 

Something which occurs to me, which I don't think has been discussed before, is whether the trigger was Aerys' execution of Rickard Stark by FIRE.

Back in Aegon's day, Torrhen Stark knelt to the Targaryen conqueror. We don't really know why - there was that business of the weirwood arrows and an intention to slay dragons - so was it just a simple submission or was there a pact of Ice and Fire - a pact broken by Aerys when he set Fire to Rickard?

[Melifeather]

I still assert that magic was released when the warding upon the hinge became unraveled and it happened fairly recent. I think it was shortly before the Starks found their direwolf pups. It's after they found the pups that certain cyclical events began to play out in reverse.

There is a wheel of time in play, and the first significant event that was replayed was the blood magic fire ritual that Mirri performed in the tent to resurrect Drogo. This is a replay of whatever happened at the tower of joy. Some Pig has a compelling argument that a similar blood magic ritual was tried on a dead Rhaegar, only he may have been resurrected successfully since Drogo's result was "not so much".  Dany lost her baby, Rhaego after she went into the tent in labor, but whoever was in the tower of joy during that ritual delivered a live son while it was the mother that died.

Since the tower of joy was at the end of Robert's Rebellion and the tent ritual was early on in the current story, this is the point where the wheel of time began to roll in reverse. However the hinge was opened, it happened after Robert's Rebellion, but before Drogo's failed resurrection.

[Tucu]

There are a lot of pre-book events that could be triggers or linked to the resurgence of the WW

~1 BC Torrhen Stark bends the knee without a fight
~130 The Pact of Ice and Fire is agreed. The Targs promise a princess to the Starks but the Targs never fullfill their part (we know how murdery the CoTF/Weirwoods/Others get about broken pacts)
252 A 77 years old Bloodraven becomes a Greenseer (first with Targ blood?)
?-259 The Ghost of High Heart prophesies that the Prince (or Princess) that was Promised would be born of Jaehaerys line
259 Aegon V assisted by the Ghost of High Heart tries to hatch dragons. Rhaegar is born during the incident.

~260-270 Bloodraven messes up Euron's training.
~270-275 Rhaegar decides to become a warrior after reading some books (prophecies?)
281 Howland Reed visits the Isles of Faces
282-283 Rhaegar and Lyanna ran away (late fullfillment of the Pact?), Rickard and Brandon are executed by Aerys and Robert's Rebellion ends the Targ reign. Jon Snow is born continuing Jaehaerys line
284 Daenerys is born continuing Jaehaerys line

 

[Rodx]

I thinking if some tapestries that Littlefinger collect actually shows future events,but they show all the Butterfly effect thing what actually helps Petyr plans his next moves ...

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

There are a lot of pre-book events that could be triggers or linked to the resurgence of the WW

~1 BC Torrhen Stark bends the knee without a fight
~130 The Pact of Ice and Fire is agreed. The Targs promise a princess to the Starks but the Targs never fullfill their part (we know how murdery the CoTF/Weirwoods/Others get about broken pacts)
252 A 77 years old Bloodraven becomes a Greenseer (first with Targ blood?)
?-259 The Ghost of High Heart prophesies that the Prince (or Princess) that was Promised would be born of Jaehaerys line
259 Aegon V assisted by the Ghost of High Heart tries to hatch dragons. Rhaegar is born during the incident.

~260-270 Bloodraven messes up Euron's training.
~270-275 Rhaegar decides to become a warrior after reading some books (prophecies?)
281 Howland Reed visits the Isles of Faces
282-283 Rhaegar and Lyanna ran away (late fullfillment of the Pact?), Rickard and Brandon are executed by Aerys and Robert's Rebellion ends the Targ reign. Jon Snow is born continuing Jaehaerys line
284 Daenerys is born continuing Jaehaerys line

 

I'm inclined to see all of these as being related and part of the ongoing song of Ice and Fire. 

Aegon turns up with his dragons breathing Fire and conquers Westeros, or at least all of it except the North. The King in the North kneels and becomes Warden of the North, otherwise nothing changes. Torrhen kneels but we've seen in Jaime's western campaign how much of a meaningless formality that can be. Something more than those weirwood arrows, dragonslaying Mk1, was involved because Ice can chalk up that meeting as a victory. Torrhen has cheerfully obliged by kneeling, Fire has been stopped in its tracks by Ice and north of the Neck its business as usual There may not be a formal pact written on parchment but some kind of understanding between Ice and Fire has been reached. Thereafter we seeing jockeying for advantage and even an actual [abortive] pact before the truce is shattered by Aegon's burning of Rickard.

[Black Crow]

14 minutes ago, Rodx said:

I thinking if some tapestries that Littlefinger collect actually shows future events,but they show all the Butterfly effect thing what actually helps Petyr plans his next moves ...

Not quite following this one but sounds intriguing. Do you have specific examples in mind?

[Tucu]

31 minutes ago, Rodx said:

I thinking if some tapestries that Littlefinger collect actually shows future events,but they show all the Butterfly effect thing what actually helps Petyr plans his next moves ...

In Alayne's chapter we see that Littlefinger has gifted the tapestries to Nestor Royce. We don't know how LF wants to use them, but he is not hiding them.

[Rodx]

36 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Not quite following this one but sounds intriguing. Do you have specific examples in mind?

Not really,but I based that on The Shining book, We know about Martin friendship and inspiration on King so :

Jack thorne become mad with the Winter and start to see ghosts (The Others ?)and Try murder his son and wife (Stannis and Shereen, who ?)

Also in the book is revelated that the spirit that talks to his son is actually from the future and a author avathar  put all the events of the book in a Painting,  also, about Redrum and Hodor I will just show the cover image of a Brazilian edition of The Shining and I found very curious :

https://www.google.com.br/search?q=the+shining+book+image&espv=2&biw=2133&bih=1061&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjy_tiSmNPNAhVCHpAKHRdQCPsQ_AUIBigB&dpr=0.9#tbm=isch&q=o+iluminado+capa+livro&imgrc=kFGyPoM37pNOyM%3A

 

[Rodx]

So I don't know if double posting was permited but I see some people doing above and I find this new train of tought more suitable for a new post so :

if my Butterfly Theory of Prophecy Function was correct we have :

Davos will go after Rickon  -  maybe He found Rickon's death and send a letter to manderly  -  manderly wrotte the pink letter  -  Jon need to have Targaryen blood and be Lyanna son to feel incestuous love for Arya who will cause his desertion from the wall  -  his desertion cause a riot  -  with Jon's death,  Selyse,Shireen and Melissandre scapes to Winterfell - Shereen sacrifice will cause a new chain of events and the list is infinite so :

Azor Ahai = Rhaegar,Davos,Jon,Stannis (and going on)  , Nissa Nissa = Lyanna,Rickon,Jayne Poole,Arya Stark,Shireen (and going on)

who exactly was don't matter since words was wind, for the prophecy all of them is part of the same web,or tapestry ...

[House Cambodia]

10 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And just a quick reminder. The run-up to Heresy bicentennial will begin in Heresy 191 with the first of a series of in-depth essays on various aspects of our discussions over the years. Some will be re-runs of the essays from the original Centennial project; others will be updated to reflect current thinking and some will be entirely new. Some of you have already very kindly volunteered and I look forward to your re-affirming your interest in contributing – or volunteering if you haven’t already done so.

I love these threads and am particularly looking forward to this, having only joined a few heresies ago 

[Other other stark]

I was watching something on YouTube and it really made me ponder an event I never thought could be the trigger. But when good queen Alasayne shuts down the night fort and gives the gift to the watch could be a major issue. The gift are lands that are most likely at that time stiff observing lords right to the first night. Creating a lot of bastards. "Snow"gate or "bastard"gate is now queens gate. not sure how this works because it's south of the wall but I don't buy the reasoning she put forth. Because there brave. I call bs on that. 

[House Cambodia]

Yeah, that's a big and intriguing theory. In essence, What GQA did by endowing all the land to the Night's Watch was turn their focus from watching north of the Wall to concerns about managing land south of the Wall, thus considerably weakening the NW. Even more significantly, the Night Fort that she closed down appears to have contained the secret door by which the COTF and greenseers could move from north to south. The third point is the effects of her banning the right of lords to shag any woman on her wedding night - previously the custom created enough bastard boys to offer like Craster; ending that custom, thus ending the sacrifices of baby boys to the Others could have broken the 8000-year-old treaty. There's a lot to mull over there.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, Other other stark said:

I was watching something on YouTube and it really made me ponder an event I never thought could be the trigger. But when good queen Alasayne shuts down the night fort and gives the gift to the watch could be a major issue. The gift are lands that are most likely at that time stiff observing lords right to the first night. Creating a lot of bastards. "Snow"gate or "bastard"gate is now queens gate. not sure how this works because it's south of the wall but I don't buy the reasoning she put forth. Because there brave. I call bs on that. 

Ah well, technically they aint bastards cos said progeny are born to a married couple and its not necessarily possible to tell who the father is. Although there's a lot of salacious licking of chops over this business of the wicked lord getting to have his evil way with every young maiden who comes along its actually a two way thing binding lords and people together over time into one clan sharing the bloodline of the chief; and likewise the business of foster brothers or milk brothers; a wet nurse obviously has her own sprog which is why she has the milk in the first place and that sprog is held to have a special relationship with the sprog being fostered.

It could be abused of course, everything can, but if there is a significance to Queen Alysane ending First Night its not saving young virgins from a fate worse than death but a weakening of the blood ties between lords and men.

[Black Crow]

As to shutting down the Nightfort being significant, I'm inclined to think not, at least in so far that I don't see it as deliberate. I suggested back-aways that the true history of the Wall is not as told by the gallant lads of the Nights Watch. That it was raised by the three-fingered tree-huggers and the only "castle" was the Nightfort with the portal between the realms below. Then come the Andals and the breaking of the Pact and the liberation of the realms of men. The tree-huggers are chased beyond the Wall and Andal prisoners are sent to those prison cages in the Nightfort to make sure they and the Other old races don't come back. Its then that all the other castles are built to accomodate all these men. Then a bit further down the line along comes Aegon and his dragons to impose the Pax Targaryena; the supply of prisoners from the wars in the south and along the line dries up; there aint enough to keep all those castles going especially as nobody's seen the tree-huggers in ages, not since the Nights King was offed, and so the policy of retrenchment and consolidation begins. 

Leaving the Black Gate unguarded might turn out to have been a bad idea, but I really can't see it as a deliberate act of policy, far less a trigger - although it might have come in handy when it came to getting the she-wolf through the wall to deliver the direwolf pups.

[Tucu]

15 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm inclined to see all of these as being related and part of the ongoing song of Ice and Fire. 

Aegon turns up with his dragons breathing Fire and conquers Westeros, or at least all of it except the North. The King in the North kneels and becomes Warden of the North, otherwise nothing changes. Torrhen kneels but we've seen in Jaime's western campaign how much of a meaningless formality that can be. Something more than those weirwood arrows, dragonslaying Mk1, was involved because Ice can chalk up that meeting as a victory. Torrhen has cheerfully obliged by kneeling, Fire has been stopped in its tracks by Ice and north of the Neck its business as usual There may not be a formal pact written on parchment but some kind of understanding between Ice and Fire has been reached. Thereafter we seeing jockeying for advantage and even an actual [abortive] pact before the truce is shattered by Aegon's burning of Rickard.

We don't see a reaction from the WW for 15 years after Rickard's execution and the main offender is dead. Is this because the WW are slow movers? are they waiting for the pretenders to come of age?

[Black Crow]

2 hours ago, Tucu said:

We don't see a reaction from the WW for 15 years after Rickard's execution and the main offender is dead. Is this because the WW are slow movers? are they waiting for the pretenders to come of age?

That's why I referred to it as a slow burn awakening. It takes time to get all the pieces in place and in sufficient numbers, simply twitching your nose and making figures in the air by fluttering your fingers doesn't cut it. This is deep magic at work and the old powers who are awakening. 

[Muttering Ed]

There wasn't a pact of fire and ice prior to Aegon's conquest, and the lands beyond the wall seem to have been pretty quiet for a few thousand years in that state. So, to me, that seems like any pact made at Torrhen's kneeling wouldn't have much influence on the WW's. Or the breaking of that pact later.

I'm more inclined to believe that the tragedy at Summerhall was the trigger since that event almost certainly involved fire and/or blood magic and the attempted fulfillment of prophecies. Or at least an attempt at fire/blood magic. The only other trigger I might favor would be the birth of Jon (the magical Ice/Fire Combo Platter) and/or the birth of Dany (magical conqueror of the Promised Prince persuasion). It just seems that something of a magical sort needs to be involved to get the old powers woken up.

[LordImp]

I agree that Aerys killing Rickard with Fire might have been the trigger for the Others return . I think that one point of the ancient pact was there will be no direct bloodshed between ice and fire. So when Aerys ( fire) killed Rickard ( ice) the pact was broken .