What if Balon Greyjoy died before AGOT?

[Oakhearts head]

How would have Balon Greyjoys death immediately affected the landscape of Winterfell and the Iron Islands, if he had died in an accident shortly prior before the events of the first book?

1. How would have Ned and Robert reacted?

So, the Iron Throne is essentially losing their hostage. However, Ned had attempted to raise Theon so that he would be a better man and for the North to have an ally on Pyke. This is could potentially kick that plan into overdrive.

2. How would Asha, Victarian and Aeron react?

Asha had obviously been eyeing the Salt Throne for some time and humiliated Theon upon returning to Pyke. I assume nothing would change here if Theon was allowed to return to claim his seat. With no War in the Greenlands however, this rivalry could potentially be allowed to boil over. I'm unsure if civil war on the Iron Islands could be the cards.

I assume Victarion would back Theon as the male heir, but Aeron seemed resistant to Theon being named the heir in Clash and again with Asha in Feast. I'm wondering who he would ultimately support.


Anyway, Euron is of course the Wildcard here. So, I'll lay down two hypotheticals :

A. Euron is alive.
B. Both Balon and Euron are dead.


What do you guys think?

[dariopatke]

Theon was like 19, it was wierd he still was ward so that would make things easier.

Theon was greedy, I really can see him attacking West with Robb.

Asha would never opose Robert, she and everyone else would have to accept Theon as Lord. They still have scars from Stannis and Robert.

Aeron seemed reluctant because he didnt mnow how much Ned changed Theon, I am 100% certain that he would have backed Theon at Kingsmoot had he been there. 

[MinotaurWarrior]

I'm pretty sure that the plan was to put Theon on the throne with an army or two at his back. Maybe marry him to Arya or Sansa if they had gotten along. If anyone resisted, Thoros would have had a great time playing Kool-aid man, busting his fat red belly through the breeches in their walls. Robert would have been happy to fight Victarion again, and Ned could probably look him in the eyes and decide he deserved to die. If Asha resisted she'd likely be married off to an inland house. If Euron returned, he'd be hunted down. 

[INCBlackbird]

Ned would have killed Theon (*cries*) and there would have been a kingsmoot I guess. if Euron didn't show up in time, perhaps Victarion would have won?

[Maxxine]

10 minutes ago, INCBlackbird said:

Ned would have killed Theon (*cries*) and there would have been a kingsmoot I guess. if Euron didn't show up in time, perhaps Victarion would have won?

Why?

[INCBlackbird]

Just now, Maxxine said:

Why?

why what?

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Theon would be sent back by Ned, who would probably have him marry a Northern lady, though not one of his own daughters, to try and cement this alliance.

18 hours ago, dariopatke said:

 

Theon was greedy, I really can see him attacking West with Robb.

He was also insecure and deep down, despite his friendship with Robb, despised being a hostage at Winterfell.

It could go either way, he could support the North but he's already be returning to the Iron Islands as an Outsider and lackey of the Starks and may instead attack them to prove to the Ironborn that he is his own man. It really depends how long ago before the series Balon died and how little respect the new Lord of the Iron Isles was given.

One thing is for sure is that Theon would not be intelligent enough to stay neutral.

 

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

14 minutes ago, INCBlackbird said:

Ned would have killed Theon (*cries*) and there would have been a kingsmoot I guess. if Euron didn't show up in time, perhaps Victarion would have won?

Why would Ned have killed Theon and guaranteed that Euron or Victarion became the new Lord?

 

Ned would have, reluctantly, let Theon become Lord, married him off to a Northern Lady and only exchanged him for a few Ironborn wards/hostages to try and keep the peace.

[Maxxine]

4 minutes ago, INCBlackbird said:

why what?

Why would Ned kill Theon if Balon died? 

[INCBlackbird]

Just now, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Why would Ned have killed Theon and guaranteed that Euron or Victarion became the new Lord?

 

Ned would have, reluctantly, let Theon become Lord, married him off to a Northern Lady and only exchanged him for a few Ironborn wards/hostages to try and keep the peace.

wait, I think I read the thread wrong, i'm really tired. I read it as Balon dying while rebelling. I don't really know what he would have done if Balon had just died, your theory makes sense though.

[INCBlackbird]

1 minute ago, Maxxine said:

Why would Ned kill Theon if Balon died? 

see post above, I read the thread wrong.

[Eden-Mackenzie]

Scenario A, Euron is alive: I see this playing about pretty much the same way as the the current situation, except maybe Theon escapes back to Winterfell when Euron wins the Kingsmoot, but it is just as, if not more, likely he ends up dead or as Euron's pet instead of Ramsay's. 

Scenario B, Euron is also dead: Greyjoy civil war, potentially Asha teams up with Victarion and Aeron, or there are three factions. Theon will not have much popular support when he shows up to claim his father's seat with a greenland army, so even if he wins, he will likely face a constant threat of rebellion and/or assassination. 

However, if Balon is dead and Theon is unwelcome in the Iron Islands, Robb will not send him to try to seek an alliance, so Theon will not betray Robb and take Winterfell, and the War of the Five Kings could have a very different outcome. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Theon becomes lord of the Iron Born ( Do anybody still refers to them as Ironmen ) or King's Moot chooses Euron ,who is more ambitious than vengeful .

[dariopatke]

10 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

He was also insecure and deep down, despite his friendship with Robb, despised being a hostage at Winterfell.

It could go either way, he could support the North but he's already be returning to the Iron Islands as an Outsider and lackey of the Starks and may instead attack them to prove to the Ironborn that he is his own man. It really depends how long ago before the series Balon died and how little respect the new Lord of the Iron Isles was given.

One thing is for sure is that Theon would not be intelligent enough to stay neutral.

 

 

Yes, I can see both scenarios, but attacking mighty Tywin and taking his gold will do the job just as attacking Stony Shore. There is a reason why people give gifts at Kingsmoot. Yes, I am sure he would go to war, he will want to show his people he is Ironborn and again I can see him attacking both North amd West, but West is more likely because he is now equal with Robb and is greedy and thirst for glory enough to want to Casterly Rock.

[Oakhearts head]

Wouldn't having a definitive ally in the Iron Islands immediately put the North in a much better postion at the outset of the WotFK? 

Theon wouldn't betray Robb if Balon wasn't there to pressure him into it. Aeron might not be happy about Theon going in a different direction to what Balon would have wanted, but he wouldn't do anything drastic to challenge him. He's not a kinslayer, and neither is Victarion. Asha was pro Greenland/Iron Island unification in Feast so I'm sure she would begrudgingly agree with Theon siding with the North, provided he was chosen at the Kingsmoot.

I am interested in how Eddard and Robert would have reacted to Balon's death, though.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

5 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

 

Theon wouldn't betray Robb if Balon wasn't there to pressure him into it.

Of course he would. Balon did not pressure him to take Winterfell, Theon was supposed to only take the coast. Balon did not pressure him into publicly claiming to have murdered Robb's brothers. Nor did Balon tell him to hold on to Winterfell with a handful of men, make deals with Northern sellswords or hang Beth Cassel.

 

Theon was incredibly insecure and felt hugely conflicted about his time in the North. He didn't need Balon to make him betray his friendship with Robb, he was quite capable of doing that all by himself.

[Oakhearts head]

6 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Of course he would.

Na, he wouldn't.

As we know, the idea of betraying Robb never entered his head before Balon commanded him to. Without Father of the Year Balon Greyjoy there standing over him pressuring him to betray his family to gain respect in his "real" family, Ned and Robb absolutely have a real ally in Theon. Aeron may bring up betrayal but the likelihood of an entitled guy like Theon listening to his crazed uncle is pretty slim, especially when we know from his inner thoughts that he doesn't hold his uncle's counsel in high regard.

Yes. Theon (understandably) had some resentment towards the Starks, but we also learn in Dance that he had tremendous amount of affection for them as well.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

6 minutes ago, Oakhearts head said:

Na, he wouldn't. As we know, the idea of betraying Robb never entered his head before Balon commanded him to

Of course it didnt as he spent little time with the Ironborn from when he left Robb. Had Balon died earlier he would have spent more time amongst his people, the same people who looked down on him for being the fostered son of a Stark.

Or do you think that the sensitive and insecure Theon would go home and not react to how others saw him and remain Robb's disciple in those months/years?

 

And of course, as goes without saying, Theon would not be betraying Robb just like he did not betray Robb in the series. He is an Ironborn not a Northerner. He is not a vassal of the Starks.

[fenr1s]

There would not be a Kingsmoot, Theon becomes Kings and is supported by Victarion and Aeron who are both very traditional. Asha might get angry and turn freelance Pirate.

Theon would attack the Westerlands together with Robb and get thousands of Ironborn killed. He might capture or atleast plunder Lannisport but fail to take Casterlyrock.

Sooner or later the tide would turn against Robb and the Tyrell-Lannister alliance drives out the Ironborn and Northmen. The Redwedding might happen still when they Freys and Boltons see the war as lost, if the Redwedding doesnt happen Robb will be forced to retreat to Moat Cailin.

Euron murders Theon instead of Balon in a Storm of Swords and becomes Kings.

[Oakhearts head]

19 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Of course it didnt as he spent little time with the Ironborn from when he left Robb. Had Balon died earlier he would have spent more time amongst his people, the same people who looked down on him for being the fostered son of a Stark.

Or do you think that the sensitive and insecure Theon would go home and not react to how others saw him and remain Robb's disciple in those months/years?

 

And of course, as goes without saying, Theon would not be betraying Robb just like he did not betray Robb in the series. He is an Ironborn not a Northerner. He is not a vassal of the Starks.

I can't remember any specific instances where the Ironmen blatantly disregarded or showed resentment towards Theon. HBO certainly went in that direction.

In the books, the Iron Born mostly seem like a mixture of conservative but dutiful (Victarion, Aeron, Dagmer) or surprisingly progressive (Asha, Rodrik the Reader, Tristofer Botley, Wex Pyke, Gylbert Farwynd). Attacking the North was entirely Balon's idea. It was a terrible idea by the way, which Theon was well aware of.