Where are the Others?

[Runaway Penguin]

Exactly. They are warriors, they are not an army. They probably could build pallisades - Wildling settlements would have them - but then there is a reason why in the land of armies, stone walls were the norm. Same for the water option - they are no sailors. Send even small Watch war galley among rafts and crude boats, massacre. 

 

Plus no matter what you do, there is the time factor. They needed to get past Wall FAST. Digging a hole through unstable glacier (plus, arguably, with stone core) is going to take many false starts and a lot of hard work, same for building  elevators etc. on it. While you do this, the Others are...coming...

[Cron]

21 hours ago, Runaway Penguin said:

You do not have a week or three. You do not know how far behind you are the Others. 

As for wading around Eastwatch, good luck. You don't know the water depth (except that large galleys can berth there) and the water is freezing. Dead things in the water indeed

(1) The "week or three" that I basically mentioned was how long it might take the northern lorda to arrive (if they even bothered to come at all), not how long the wildings should sit on the north side of the wall (although I'm not convinced even that would be a problem.  Part of this thread addresses speculation about where the Others are and why they AREN'T going to the Wall.  Clearly, they've had PLENTY of time to do so.  Sam and the other NW returned from the Fist of the First Men and Craster's Keep how long ago?  Two YEARS?  And the Others literally PASSED SAM UP, but STILL are not at the Wall, LONG after Sam arrived.)

Rather, the "week or three" was how much time the wildlings might have after they are already on the south side of the Wall.  I believe if the wildlings had gone to one of the undefended forts, they could have had all the wildings on the south side within 24 to 48 hours (again, as I've mentioned a number ot times now, the wildings had a MASSIVE labor force.  100,000 wildlings!! Giants and mammoths!!  Even if only 20,000 were strong men able to heavily contribute (which is a very low estimate), they should have been able to tunnel through that Wall like a drill through warm butter.  They MUST have had basic tools.  They were living in villages, and if they didn't bring axes, shovels and picks while knowing they were going to assault the Wall, then they must have been total idiots.  Giants and mammoths QUICKLY destroyed the gate(s) at Castle Black, we SAW them do it.  20,000 men with axes, shovels and picks could clear out the flooded, frozen tunnels VERY quickly, then they rip out the gates.  This would not take one to three weeks, it would be one to two days, maybe less.

(2)  Regarding the wading, I said "for all we know" they could wade through it.  As you basically say, we don't know the water depth.  That was part of my point.  As for large galleys berthing there, what's your source for that?  Are you assuming that b/c that's where Stannis arrived with his forces?  If so:  Just b/c Stannis arrived there does NOT mean large galleys are parked right up next to the land and Wall.  In fact, that's extremely unlikely, I think.  Minimally, I would expect a long dock extending out into the water, b/c the land almost definitely slopes down into the water (and continues to just slope down once in the water), not a sudden drop-off of 20 or 30 feet.

(3)  Regarding the water freezing:  Yes, I've thought about this, too.  Frozen water is ice.  Ice can be walked on.  It's possible the wildings could have just walked on the water/ice right around the Wall.

[Cron]

21 hours ago, NutBurz said:

Sorry, Cron, but the fact you´re talking about digging trenches shows you´re thinking about an army when talking about wildlings. They´re not that disciplined, they have don´t have the notion of warfare that a 15 years old nowadays would have from playing video games, one of their most experienced warriors doesn´t know what a "pincer" is.

My friend, I think it's exrremely unlikely that the wildings don't know how to dig trenches, and/or would be incapable of it or unwilling to do it if their lives literally depended on it (which they very well might have).   As I mentioned above, I would think they MUST have at least some basic tools (axes, shovels, picks), but in any event the trenches were only one small part of what I wrote about (not that I would expect anyone here to respond to all of what I wrote, I realize I ran on and on at some length)

[Runaway Penguin]

The thing about tunnel is that you have extremely narrow frontline. 100,000 manpower is worthless for you because you have the (by the size of tunnels) 10-odd folks up front digging. In unstable ice. With either iron or stone obstacles in the way.
How thick is the wall? How long did it take to dig the 500 meter tunnel in the glacier in Iceland with modern tools and equipment?

 

You cannot handwave the engineering obstacle away by throwing warm bodies against it.

 

In both books and series, the Others went for an easy target at Hardhome as the bulk of wildling force passed through Castle Black quickly - in 2 days or so. So they obviously were after a sizeable Wildling group with nowhere to run. Backs to the sea or backs to the Wall... Makes no difference.

[Cron]

14 hours ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Exactly. They are warriors, they are not an army. They probably could build pallisades - Wildling settlements would have them - but then there is a reason why in the land of armies, stone walls were the norm. Same for the water option - they are no sailors. Send even small Watch war galley among rafts and crude boats, massacre. 

 

Plus no matter what you do, there is the time factor. They needed to get past Wall FAST. Digging a hole through unstable glacier (plus, arguably, with stone core) is going to take many false starts and a lot of hard work, same for building  elevators etc. on it. While you do this, the Others are...coming...

(1) Regarding fortifications:  My point is NOT that I believe the wildings could have dug in or fortified well enough to hold off 50 M-1 Abrams tanks.  My point is that WHATEVER they might have been able to crudely do for defense on the south side of the Wall, that would HAVE to be better than what they did, which was to attack the north side of the Wall.  I'm not an expert on warfare, but here's something I do know: In the kind of warfare we are talking about, defending is gonna be a better option than attacking FAR more often than not.  One of the few exceptions?  What ended up actually happening to the wildings, they got overrun and destroyed by cavalry out in the open.

But in any event, there would have been no need for all 100,000 to make a stand right at the Wall anyway.  They could have tunnelled through, passed through, and then SCATTERED in many directions to the south  My goodness, what a nightmare for the Northern Lords THAT would have been.  Good luck trying to track all them down and accounting for them.

(2) Eastwatch: Separate and apart from the possibilities of wading or walking on frozen icewater (both of which would have wildlings swarming around the Wall by the thousands) I'm very skeptical of the "war galley" issue you raise. Does the NW have a navy?  Not that I'm aware of, but whatever, we know the NW is outrageously undermanned, whether we are talking about soldiers defending Castle Black or sailors (I guess) by Eastwatch.  Again, the wildlings had MASSIVE manpower and labor power.  They could have gone to the water a half mile or so north of Eastwatch, start dropping trees by the dozens, lashing them together, and have 50 rafts capable of carrying 20 men or more each very quickly.  Then, they float south near the coast, and presto, you've got 1,000 men on rafts going around the Wall.  How is a war galley or two (assuming the NW even HAS such things) going to deal with that?  Ramming?  All those rafts?  They don't have gunpowder or cannons.  A war galley is going to destroy all those rafts by ramming them?  I am deeply skeptical of that.  Presumably, the wildlings would bring long, stout poles both to guide and push themselves down the coast and to push themselves away from any war galley trying to ram them, and remember, the NW is outrageously undermanned.  How many guys at Eastwatch?  Less than Castle Black I assume and Castle Black only had aobut 100.

(3)  I have addressed the logistics of the wildlings tunnelling through the Wall above.  You say it will take much hard work  I agree.  Good thing if I was Mance I would have had 100,000 workers (AT LEAST 20,000 of whom would be very strong men) PLUS giants and mammoths.  You mention a stone core.  Maybe.  I don't know that for sure.  I've never heard that before, but if you have information I'd be interested in it, but mostly I'm talking about clearing out the frozen tunnels anyway, and to my knowledge they don't have stone cores, they are frozen water plus the gates, which I addressed above.

(4)  You raised an issue about the Others coming.  Actually, i'm not sure they ARE coming.  Why aren't they there already?  Indeed, that is the very focus of this entire thread, Where Are the Others?  They have had PLENTY of time to get to the Wall, yet they are not there. They passed Sam and other NW at the Fist of the First Men in Season Two, and Sam has LONG since returned to the Wall, hung out there for quite a while, then travelled all the way to Oldtown (!!!!), and the Others are STILL not at the Wall.  In any event, i remain convinced the wildlings could have cleared a tunnel within a day or two (maybe a lot less), and then been pouring through the Wall by the tens of thousands in no time.

[Runaway Penguin]

Again, if you want to dig a tunnel, it does not matter if you have 100 or 100,000 guys - there is only so many who can work at the front. And no, it definitely would not be a day or two. Just as an example, using modern ice "drill" when excavating P-38 under 260 feet of ice, it took better part of a month to basically make a hole four feet in diameter. Part of that was extra care on the last meters, but most of it was because of the "simple" problem of tunneling trough the ice. Now you need to get a mammoth-sized tunnel (or at least Giant-sized) through at least as much ice and stone (sealed tunnels were filled with stone and then sealed with ice) - good luck.

We know where the Others went: To Hardhome, to snatch more meat puppets. meat puppets that were there because of the defeat at the Wall by Stannis. If they instead lingered in front of the Wall, that's where Others would go for them. Heck, fear of the Others was the primary reason the Wildlings gort together and why they were trying to get to the other side of Wall. From their point of view, you had just the evidence that Others are out in force (the massacre at FotFM, maybe they knew also about Craster's Keep) - which bought them some time as Others were busy with the Watch survivors. Mance and co. did not know how much time they have before the Others show up again - and they've just seen evidence that the time for skirmishes was over.

 

EDIT: As for Others not showing up at the Wall... Why would they? There are no meat puppets to be had anymore, they snatched what they can in Hardhome and they know they cannot cross the Wall until Bran passes

[Cron]

21 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

The thing about tunnel is that you have extremely narrow frontline. 100,000 manpower is worthless for you because you have the (by the size of tunnels) 10-odd folks up front digging. In unstable ice. With either iron or stone obstacles in the way.
How thick is the wall? How long did it take to dig the 500 meter tunnel in the glacier in Iceland with modern tools and equipment?

 

You cannot handwave the engineering obstacle away by throwing warm bodies against it.

 

In both books and series, the Others went for an easy target at Hardhome as the bulk of wildling force passed through Castle Black quickly - in 2 days or so. So they obviously were after a sizeable Wildling group with nowhere to run. Backs to the sea or backs to the Wall... Makes no difference.

I hear you about the narrow frontline, but I think you go too far when you say manpower of 100,000 is "worthless."

In that narrow frontline, Mance would have had an inexhaustible labor force.  Get 1,000 or so VERY strong men (he's got PLENTY) and divide them into crews of 20 or 30.  Get 'em organized.  1st crew goes, digs like MADMEN for 10 minutes.  Next crew up. 10 minutes later, next crew up.  10 minutes later, next crew up.  Actually, I don't think you'd even need 1,000.  Say, 400 or 500 men divided into crews like that, and I'm telling you that ice and snow would be FLYING out of there (some crews using shovels, other tools, or even their own hands to clear away the ice and snow as the choppers tear into that Wall.  I'm telling you, they would be going through that Wall like a hot drill through butter.  It is ICE and SNOW!  it IS vulnerable, not invulnerable, we know this to be true, it melts in the sun!

Oh, found a rock (almost no matter how big) or a gate??  NO PROBLEM    He's got giants and mammoths!  Get 'em up front, attach the ropes or chains or whatever they used at Castle Black to rip out the gates, and rip out the rocks and/or gates.

You raise the issue of the thickness of the Wall.  Well, I don't know exactly, but I can tell you it's not even CLOSE to 500 meters thick, no way, that is almost a third of a mile, and that is inconceivable to me.  We have seen the top very clearly (most notably, off the top of my head, in the episode "The Climb," where we got a really good luck at it after Jon and Ygritte reached the top), and I think it was only 20 or 30 feet (at most) but of course it's much thicker at the base.

Even so, we've seen characters walk through the tunnels at the base, and it only takes a few moments.  It is clearly NOT anywhere near a third of a mile.   My guess is that at the base the Wall is somewhere between 50 to 100 yards thick, no more.  We've seen distant shots of the Wall, and it does not have sloping sides (which it would have if it was 20 feet at the top and 500 meters at the bottom).  My goodness, when Jon climbed it, and when the wildlings attacked Castle Black, the sides were nearly vertical (if NOT vertical), although I understand the Wall is thicker at the bottom.

Bottom line: I continue to maintain Mance could have cleared out a tunnel at an undefended fort within a day or two, and it continues to make NO sense to me that Mance decided to attack the Wall at its most heavily defended spot, even though there are HUNDREDS of MILES of undefended Wall, including SIXTEEN undefended forts (and none of this even touches on any of the Eastwatch stuff I wrote about above)

Plot hotes.

Plot armor.

And/or Mance Rayder was basically a colossal idiot.

[Cron]

9 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Again, if you want to dig a tunnel, it does not matter if you have 100 or 100,000 guys - there is only so many who can work at the front. And no, it definitely would not be a day or two. Just as an example, using modern ice "drill" when excavating P-38 under 260 feet of ice, it took better part of a month to basically make a hole four feet in diameter. Part of that was extra care on the last meters, but most of it was because of the "simple" problem of tunneling trough the ice. Now you need to get a mammoth-sized tunnel (or at least Giant-sized) through at least as much ice and stone (sealed tunnels were filled with stone and then sealed with ice) - good luck.

We know where the Others went: To Hardhome, to snatch more meat puppets. meat puppets that were there because of the defeat at the Wall by Stannis. If they instead lingered in front of the Wall, that's where Others would go for them. Heck, fear of the Others was the primary reason the Wildlings gort together and why they were trying to get to the other side of Wall. From their point of view, you had just the evidence that Others are out in force (the massacre at FotFM, maybe they knew also about Craster's Keep) - which bought them some time as Others were busy with the Watch survivors. Mance and co. did not know how much time they have before the Others show up again - and they've just seen evidence that the time for skirmishes was over.

 

EDIT: As for Others not showing up at the Wall... Why would they? There are no meat puppets to be had anymore, they snatched what they can in Hardhome and they know they cannot cross the Wall until Bran passes

(1) I disagree that it does not matter if you have 100 or 100,000 to dig.  See my comment above about rotating crews.  Mance had a virtually inexhaustible supply of big, FRESH, strong men, all of whom were motivated to get to the south side of the Wall to save their own lives and their families.

(2)  Remember, the wildings, under this scenario, would not be digging a new tunnel.  They would have been clearing out a tunnel which previously existed and then was filled in.  I think that's important. The top and sides of the old tunnel are still there, and would provide support for the "new" tunnel they are making.  Look, it's ice and snow, not granite.  ice and snow.  Whatever rocks were put in place, I'm not terribly concerned about.  Would the rocks slow them down? Some, I guess, but they were put in place by MEN (NW) and Mance had GIANTS and MAMMOTHS to get them out.

(3)  I know nothing about this P-38 project you're talking about other than what you just said.  Is that the 500 meter thing?  If so, why did they drill a hole 4 feet in diameter through 500 meters of ice?  I dunno, but as I addressed in another reply above, the Wall is nowhere near 500 meters at its base, there's just no way.  We have enough information to say that with certainty.

(4) The size of the tunnel is interesting too.  I actually believe they could dig a decent sized tunnel faster than a small tunnel hole (for reasons you've already alluded to.  With, say, a 4 foot diameter tunnel, now we're talking about a REALLY small "frontline" for digging, with diggers crawling in and out and VERY little room to maneuver up front.  No, I'd set up my rotating crews, and have 'em go at it.  As I've said, the snow and ice would be flying, and the crews are literally inexhaustible because Mance has SO many men at his disposal.  We don't know details of what the NW did with the rocks, but depending on that, I still think the wildlings could clear out one of those tunnels pretty quickly.

(5) The Others:  I'll address your Edit first. The time frame we are talking about is quite a while before the wilding survivors and the Others went to Hardhome.  Beyond that, it seems to me that some people seem to think the Others are racing to the Wall, and other people seem to think they are wandering around the north for reasons I don't even really understand.  I already addressed in another post, the fact that the Others have had PLENTY of time to go to the Wall, and yet they are not there.  How much time passed between when they passed Sam at the Fist of the First Men and when Sam arrived at Oldtown?  Months? YEARS????  I'm sorry, but what they are doing and why is not at all clear to me.  Some people seem to think Mance HAD to get through the Wall as fast as humanly possible, but WHY??  Clearly, years have passed since Season One and Season Six, and yet...STILL no Others at the Wall.  I understand they are likely waiting for the magic that keeps them from passing the Wall to be turned off, but I don't think it's reasonable to assume Mance did what he did in attacking at Castle Black b/c he either believed or even feared the Others were breathing down his neck.

[DaMavs]

Near as I can tell the "Into the Glacier" 500 meter tunnel in Iceland took 15 months to construct starting in March 2014.  The main tunnel is around 3 meters wide, but there are also some chambers built that form larger rooms.  So with modern drilling tools, it was 15 months.  Even if we presume the Wall is much thinner than 500 meters at the base - let's even say 50m, that's still a month and a half with powered drilling techniques.  Digging by hand?  Far longer.  Honestly I could easily believe that's a 6 month dig with GoT technology if not longer...

[Runaway Penguin]

Cron, packed old ice is not something that "comes flying out". It is very tricky material - trickier than rock.  also if suitably compressed, pretty hard. How hard? Ask Titanic. You will dig through it, eventually, even with primitive tools, but the question we have here is how long would it take. Do not bet on old tunnel holding up if you try to be too fast.

100 yards is 300 feet. The Glacier Girl excavation (the 4-feet hole) was 260 feet. the hole was done by a modern ice coring machine, providing pretty stable and fast way how to do so big hole in ice quickly. Still... Better part of month. For a tunnel that is giant-sized, check the 500m tunnel construction. And that went down (thanks to good surveys) without the tunnel caving in etc.

 

[Slaysman]

The Others could be sweeping the lands beyond the wall for any living beings to add to their army. As the wall is still up maybe their leadership wants to be as prepared as possible since the last time they invaded there was no warning. This time people are preparing because they know they are coming. It is a poor assumption to make that the Others are mindless.

[Cron]

15 hours ago, DaMavs said:

Near as I can tell the "Into the Glacier" 500 meter tunnel in Iceland took 15 months to construct starting in March 2014.  The main tunnel is around 3 meters wide, but there are also some chambers built that form larger rooms.  So with modern drilling tools, it was 15 months.  Even if we presume the Wall is much thinner than 500 meters at the base - let's even say 50m, that's still a month and a half with powered drilling techniques.  Digging by hand?  Far longer.  Honestly I could easily believe that's a 6 month dig with GoT technology if not longer...

 

12 hours ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Cron, packed old ice is not something that "comes flying out". It is very tricky material - trickier than rock.  also if suitably compressed, pretty hard. How hard? Ask Titanic. You will dig through it, eventually, even with primitive tools, but the question we have here is how long would it take. Do not bet on old tunnel holding up if you try to be too fast.

100 yards is 300 feet. The Glacier Girl excavation (the 4-feet hole) was 260 feet. the hole was done by a modern ice coring machine, providing pretty stable and fast way how to do so big hole in ice quickly. Still... Better part of month. For a tunnel that is giant-sized, check the 500m tunnel construction. And that went down (thanks to good surveys) without the tunnel caving in etc.

 

Good conversation with both of you, I read both posts with interest, and learned some interesting stuff about our "real" world that I didn't know (about the ice drilling projects)

I think there are some material distinctions between those situations and the Wall, but I believe I've pretty much already mentioned them, above, and I don't want to bore people here by just repeating myself.

I will say this, though:  If I had been Mance, I STILL would not have attacked Castle Black the way he did.  It is fun to talk about the logistics of drilling through ice (in the "real" world and in ASOIAF), but at least attempting to clear out one or more of the tunnels is only one thing I have mentioned in this thread that I think Mance would have been far smarter to do.

I've also talked about strategies for climbing the Wall en masse and setting up rope "webs" along the way to make it VERY easy for others to follow up behind (it would take a lot of rope, but again, Mance has virtually limitless manpower, for all practical purposes).  Picture a scenario where the best climbers (maybe 10) all scramble up side by side trailing ropes behind them, then securing the rope every 50 feet or so with pitons sunk deeply into the Wall, and so on until they get to the top, then secure the ropes there.  After that, the 10 vertical ropes are connected by horizontal ropes, securely knotted and also strategically fastened to the Wall with pitons.  At this point, it would resemble a HUGE fishing net going from the ground all the way up the Wall, and people could be scrambling up it by the dozens in no time. (Or how about this, and this is probably much better:  Build the enormous net completely on the ground, then 50 climbers go up, lower ropes to fasten to the net and start hauling it up, 5 men per rope, pulliing the net up the side of the Wall, as men on the ground "feed" the net towards them.  Once it reaches the top they securely fasten it there, then the first group of guys up the net fasten it in numerou s places with pitons.  What's that, you say, maybe such a huge net would be too heavy for the men to pull up?  Well, I doubt it, but even if you're gith, then fine, split it into two 350' segments, or four 175' segments, and do it chunk by chunk.  Whatever.  These people were highly motivated, their very LIVES were at stake) 

Some people (old, sick, children) would need to be lifted from the top by baskets, or even just by tying ropes around their waist.

Or how about LADDERS?  The Wall is 700' tall, so believe me I understand it's not just a matter of putting a ladder against the Wall and climbing up, but again, they'd have to be creative.  If youve got 35 ladders that are 20' each, then bam, you're up the Wall.  They'd have to pick a good spot (looking for a place where it's mostly smooth with no bulges or anything), then put the 1st 20' ladder up, fasten it SECURELY at the top and bottom.  Do that 34 more times, and people will be scarambling up those ladders lickety-split.  Best of all, do multiple sets of ladders side by side, both to make it easier in building and climbing.  Again, Mance had a labor force CLEARLY capable of doing such things, no problem.  35 ladders 20' each?  His work force should be able to crank that out in one afternoon or less, especially with giants helping in chopping down trees and trimming them..

What about the giants and mammoths?  Start chopping out the ice tunnels, I guess.  Even if it takes a month, start chopping.  Give those giants enormous ice picks, and start chopping, with other guys clearing away the debris.  You guys are talking about modern drilling techniques, but how about a 20' giant swinging a monstrous ice pick?

Beyond all this,  Mance could have sent a MUCH larger force to climb the Wall in the first place when Jon and Ygritte climbed it. Why didn't Mance send a LOT more guys to attack Castle Black from the south?  I have no clue.  In episode 401, Mance tells Jon he sent 400 more wildlings to climb the Wall (this was the morning after the failed wilidling attack at Castle Black)  Why didn't Mance send all of them with Jon and Ygritte to climb the Wall in the first place?  I have no clue.  The NW would have been annihilated, and the wildlings would have easily prevailed even at Castle Black. (I have heard theories that Mance didn't really want to destroy the NW, and/or "needed" them for some reason.  I dismiss all of that.  The notion that Mance's entire ultimate strategy was dependent on convincing the NW to let them through the gates and tunnels is something I simply cannot accept.)

I have gone on at GREAT length above about possibilities at Eastwatch (multiple ways to try to get AROUND the end of the Wall), but I'll spare everyone a rehashing of it all here.

All of which leads me back to my big picture point:

In my opinion, Mance was an idiot.  The Wall is hundreds of miles long (many, many points of vulnerability) and the NW was outrageously undermanned.  As I've said, there's a REASON 19 forts were built in the first place, cuz that's what it took to adequately defend the Wall in the first place, even with thousands and thousands of NW men there were when all 19 forts were manned.  But by the time Mance attacked, SIXTEEN forts were totally abandoned, and the NW was down to (I estimate) somewhere around 200 to 300 men, to defend three hundred miles of Wall!

in sum, it is so stunning that Mance failed that I've got to chalk it up to pure plot holes and plot armor, and/or Mance being quite possibly the worst military commander that ever lived.

[NutBurz]

Except he didn´t fail. He was so beautifully successful that the Commander of the Night´s Watch adopted Mance´s goal as his own. That was chance, sure, but so was Stannis coming North because Davos suddenly knows how to read, and if he hadn´t come, Mance would´ve won anyway.

[hitman47]

They are trapped inside Tyrion's body

[Cron]

18 hours ago, NutBurz said:

Except he didn´t fail. He was so beautifully successful that the Commander of the Night´s Watch adopted Mance´s goal as his own. That was chance, sure, but so was Stannis coming North because Davos suddenly knows how to read, and if he hadn´t come, Mance would´ve won anyway.

You make an interesting point, which I understand to be that Mance nearly succeeded anyway.

But for me, I would have to tack onto that "...in spite of his own atrocious planning and terrible command decisions."

And I'm pretty comfortable calling what happened to Mance and the wildings a LOT more failure than success.  He failed to take Castle Black, many wildlings got slaughtered by Stannis, then the wildlings scattered, Mance himself got burned alive, then a bunch of wildlings got killed at Hardhome, and who even knows if the rest of them are all accounted for  After all that, a ragtag band of stragglers (maybe a couple thousand? Less?) were finally led by Jon into Castle Black..

Those are pretty wretched results, in my opinion, for a commander (Mance) who had overwhelming manpower against outrageously undermanned opponents (and I'm not talking about a 3-1 ratio here, I'm talking more like about a 300-1 ratio ratio between the wildlings and the NW), with multiple ways I can think of to get over, through or around the Wall.

Indeed, Mance had SO many men he could have tried ALL THREE methods (over, around and through the Wall) at NUMEROUS places simultaneously.

Did he?

Nope.

[Runaway Penguin]

Again, he does not lead an army. He leads a ragtag group of unknown qualities and loyalties. He sends the two chieftains he can really trust to do the right thing (and, for example, not to bolt once across the Wall and not to go "as far South as South goes) on a main attack (assault on Castle Black from behind), but he has to keep the rest pretty closely in hand lest they wander off or evens tart fighting among themselves. Night's Watch knew this - that is why Jon chose to try to kill him (series) / was sent to kill him (books).

His plan was rather good, practicable and the fastest way to get across the Wall. It failed only because he trusted Jon and because NW leadership got so thinned out Jon was able to take command - so he would go for a more traditional approach the next day with climbers on both flanks (while presumably maintaining pressure at the gate so that NW has to disperse). He got defeated by higher power he had no ability to predict (Stannis) - otherwise he would be across the wall on that day (especially since he would have captured/killed the guy who managed to hold the Wall the day before and there won't be that many Rangers left afterwards).

So... Going by his plan, best option: Have a tunnel through the Wall on Day 1 (thanks to Tormund and Thenns). When this failed, Plan B was to have tunnel on Day 2-3 the latest (climbers, pincer attack). Both SIGNIFICANTLY faster than either trying to dig or trying to build gantries and cranes (do not forget: Your objective is to get EVERYONE through, not just the able bodied men and women capable of climbing).

 

Both variants are sound from both military and logistical point of view. Plan would have worked if not for Stannis.

[Cron]

7 hours ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Again, he does not lead an army. He leads a ragtag group of unknown qualities and loyalties. He sends the two chieftains he can really trust to do the right thing (and, for example, not to bolt once across the Wall and not to go "as far South as South goes) on a main attack (assault on Castle Black from behind), but he has to keep the rest pretty closely in hand lest they wander off or evens tart fighting among themselves. Night's Watch knew this - that is why Jon chose to try to kill him (series) / was sent to kill him (books).

His plan was rather good, practicable and the fastest way to get across the Wall. It failed only because he trusted Jon and because NW leadership got so thinned out Jon was able to take command - so he would go for a more traditional approach the next day with climbers on both flanks (while presumably maintaining pressure at the gate so that NW has to disperse). He got defeated by higher power he had no ability to predict (Stannis) - otherwise he would be across the wall on that day (especially since he would have captured/killed the guy who managed to hold the Wall the day before and there won't be that many Rangers left afterwards).

So... Going by his plan, best option: Have a tunnel through the Wall on Day 1 (thanks to Tormund and Thenns). When this failed, Plan B was to have tunnel on Day 2-3 the latest (climbers, pincer attack). Both SIGNIFICANTLY faster than either trying to dig or trying to build gantries and cranes (do not forget: Your objective is to get EVERYONE through, not just the able bodied men and women capable of climbing).

 

Both variants are sound from both military and logistical point of view. Plan would have worked if not for Stannis.

You do make some interesting points, but I'm still adamant I would not have done what Mance did, I would have attacked the Wall at one of almost innumerable other places that were more vulnerable than Castle Black.

A lot of arguments in this thread relate to "getting everyone through as fast as possible" (my words), but as I've said elsewhere, I'm just not convinced there was a need for such tremendous urgency.  Years passed between books and show seasons...still no Others at the Wall (as I have discussed at great length)  Why was it suddenly SO urgent that the wildlings pass through the Wall in the next 24 to 48 hours?  I dunno.  PERHAPS my ways would have taken longer than the gamble Mance took, but I believe my ways had a much greater probability of success, and far more wildlings would have lived.

I guess a lot of my beliefs on this subject boil down to 2 points:

(1)  Hit 'em where they ain't (a baseball expression).  So many miles of Wall and forts were compltetely undefended b/c the NW was so heavily undrmanned that my instincts just scream "Hit 'em where they ain't," especially when I can think of so many ways to go over, through and/or around the Wall itself.  Again, there are reason  s the Wall had 19 forts, and there are reasons the NW used to be comprised of thousands of men, and it's b/c that's what it took to adequately defend the Wall.

(2)  There's been great discussion here about the time and effort that would be required to clear out the tunnels, but in addition to the climbing tactics I've described at great length, I'm just not convinced that clearing out the tunnels would be as hard as some people think.  The giants alone would have been capable of doing massive damage.  In addition to everything else I've already said on this subjet, consider giant spikes being driven into the ice by giants wielding giant hammers.  I'm sorry, but ice is not granite, especially when the full weight of the Wall above is NOT compressing it (b/c the tunnels have support structures separate from the ice that was used to block the tunnels. Frozen ice is NOT granite.  Have the giants drive the spikes in strategically, and I believe soon you'll be busting out large chunks of ice over and over and over.  Drive spikes in at angles towards each other, and then use them as levers to pry huge chunks of ice out.  Ice is NOT granite, I can chew up ice cubes in my mouth easily, but I won't be trying that with granite, ever.

And even beyond this, I've raised points in this thread I'm not sure anyone has adequately responded to. Why didn't Mance send the 400 climbers he told Jon about in Episod 201 with Jon and Ygritte to climb the Wall in the first place???  I have no idea.  I believe some people have theorized that Mance didn't WANT to overwhelm and defeat the NW, much less kill them all, but ratther, his goal was to simply convince them to let the wildlings pass.

My response:  WHAAT???  The wildlings attacked the Wall from north and south, and were killing every NW man they could find, no questions asked, near as I could tell. Where was the part about handling the NW with kid gloves so the NW would, hopefully, let the wildlings pass and then the NW would (hopefully) somehow convince the northern lords to let the wildlings remain south of the Wall?? I must have totally missed that.   Near as I could tell, the wildlings were killing every NW man they COULD and WOULD have wiped the NW out if they could have.   But even under Mance's actual plan (attacking at BY FAR the most heavily defended point in hundreds of miles of Wall), they lost b/c Mance, for some inexplicable reason, held back the VAST majority of his forces, both in climbing the Wall (with Jon and Ygritte) AND in attacking the Wall from the north.

I guess the best point I'm hearing from the other side on this is the Stannis issue which you mentioned.  Okay, I suppose it's true that Mance would have prevailed if Stannis hadn't shown up, but that's of very limited use to me in analyzing Mance's tactics prior to Stannis showing up, and really has nothing to do with what I consider to be Mance's numerous tactical blunders.  Maybe the Stannis thing takes a little bit of the edge off it, but to me what it indicates, at best, is that maybe Mance, rather than being a tactical and strategic idiot, was just "merely" heavily overconfident (basically thinking he was going to win without bothering to take all the extra measures I've been describing, and in fact, as some people have pointed out here, he almost DID, but for Stannis showing up)

[NutBurz]

1 hour ago, Cron said:

it indicates, at best, is that maybe Mance, rather than being a tactical and strategic idiot, was just "merely" heavily overconfident

(:

This is the closest I´ve been to agreeing with you here, and I´ll try to improve that perception by trying to answer something else:

1 hour ago, Cron said:

And even beyond this, I've raised points in this thread I'm not sure anyone has adequately responded to. Why didn't Mance send the 400 climbers he told Jon about in Episod 201 with Jon and Ygritte to climb the Wall in the first place???  I have no idea.  I believe some people have theorized that Mance didn't WANT to overwhelm and defeat the NW, much less kill them all, but ratther, his goal was to simply convince them to let the wildlings pass.

He was not heavily overconfident. He was heavily afraid.

-People have to eat. I´m not trying to be patronizing here, I´m trying to remind you that 400 people need to eat a lot, and for that they would have to hunt, they would have to move around and bother people. That draws attention. Mance cannot draw attention, because if the Northern Lords even suspect that the Night´s Watch is about to be overwhelmed, they would certainly send people.

-Wildlings fight among themselves. 30 people can be controlled by 2 trusted leaders. 400 people can´t. They´re not soldiers, they have little concern with honor, they have little to no respect for hierarchy, they´re not paid, they don´t take orders because of some social superstructure that they feel it´s greater than they are. Up until Mance arrived they did not have the social awareness to realize how similar they were, and how their interests were aligned in defeating the 8 thousands years old institution of the NW.

 

When I said he didn´t send more people because he didn´t want to destroy the NW, I´m not saying that "not destroying the NW" is necessarily his main goal, only that "destroying the NW" was not his main goal.

That is to say that, in case he had some sort of hatred for the NW which compelled him to make bad decisions, then he would probably send 400 men over the wall and risk drawing the Northern Lord´s attention. Since he was not emotionally involved, he was able to be more careful and stealth.

The smaller force he sent over the Wall was almost all killed or captured, but that´s how war goes. If generals were afraid of losing one batalion to win an entire battle, they´d never have become generals in the first place. The series also touches this during Robb´s campaign, when he feinted the lannister army and captured the kingslayer at the cost of 2k people.

[Cron]

1 hour ago, NutBurz said:

(:

This is the closest I´ve been to agreeing with you here, and I´ll try to improve that perception by trying to answer something else:

He was not heavily overconfident. He was heavily afraid.

-People have to eat. I´m not trying to be patronizing here, I´m trying to remind you that 400 people need to eat a lot, and for that they would have to hunt, they would have to move around and bother people. That draws attention. Mance cannot draw attention, because if the Northern Lords even suspect that the Night´s Watch is about to be overwhelmed, they would certainly send people.

-Wildlings fight among themselves. 30 people can be controlled by 2 trusted leaders. 400 people can´t. They´re not soldiers, they have little concern with honor, they have little to no respect for hierarchy, they´re not paid, they don´t take orders because of some social superstructure that they feel it´s greater than they are. Up until Mance arrived they did not have the social awareness to realize how similar they were, and how their interests were aligned in defeating the 8 thousands years old institution of the NW.

 

When I said he didn´t send more people because he didn´t want to destroy the NW, I´m not saying that "not destroying the NW" is necessarily his main goal, only that "destroying the NW" was not his main goal.

That is to say that, in case he had some sort of hatred for the NW which compelled him to make bad decisions, then he would probably send 400 men over the wall and risk drawing the Northern Lord´s attention. Since he was not emotionally involved, he was able to be more careful and stealth.

The smaller force he sent over the Wall was almost all killed or captured, but that´s how war goes. If generals were afraid of losing one batalion to win an entire battle, they´d never have become generals in the first place. The series also touches this during Robb´s campaign, when he feinted the lannister army and captured the kingslayer at the cost of 2k people.

(1)  The 400 men who Mance sent to climb the Wall (which he told Jon about in Ep. 201) could have climbed the Wall, then raced down the top of the Wall straight to Castle Black   There was NO NEED for them to wander around the The Gift (the territory given by the northern lords to the NW).  400 men, plus the wilding who actually DID climb the Wall with Jon and Ygritte, would have devastated the NW at Castle Black, period.  Mance had vastly overwhelming manpower.  Those 400 could have been 4,000 fightinig men almost just as easily.  Jon climbed thwe Wall.  Ygritte climbed the Wall.  They have no special climbing skills that I'm aware of, especially Jon.  It is inconceivable to me that, out of 100,000 wildlings Mance could not find 4,000 men capable of climbing the Wall and attacking Castle Black from the south side, especially with the highly experienced an skilled climbers assisting the less experienced and skilled.

(2)  The food problem you mention exists NO MATTER WHAT.  This is another logistical issue I have a problem with.  There is NO getting around this, it is inconceivable to me that about 100 men at Castle Black had enough food stores on hand to feed even the wildings that DID come through, plus Stannis' forces, for even a few weeks or longer (which they did anyway.  At one point, Jon speaks to Stannis about the food issue, and Stannis, I believe, tells Jon they'll be leaving within a fortnight.  A fortnight????  With all those wildlings and Stannis' men there, my guess is that the NW's food would have been gone long before that, which the NW could not have reasonably allowed, cuz then  THEY would all starve through the long winter.

(3)  Regarding your point that wildlings fight amongst themselves:  My friend, you are now arguing against things that actually DID happen.  Mance actually DID send the 400 men to climb the Wall.  Mance TOLD Jon about this in Ep. 201.  To the extent that action was reasonable and viable when Mance actually did it, it would have been reasonable and viable at the time I suggest it should have been done.

(4)  The reason the smaller force Mance sent was almost all killed or caputred was BECAUSE HE SENT TOO SMALL A FORCE.  To me, it is beyond dispute that if Mance had sent those extra 400 Wall climbers (or more) with Jon and Ygritte, the NW would have been totally overwhelmed and crushed.  INDEED, under those circumstances I think it's unlikely Jon would have been able to escape from the wildlings, to head back to the NW and warn them in the first place.

(5)  It is NOT my understanding that Robb sacrificed 2,000 men just to capture jaime.  My understanding is that Robb won every battle he fought, straight up, irrespective of whether he captured an enemy commander in the process or not.

[NutBurz]

40 minutes ago, Cron said:

(1)  The 400 men who Mance sent to climb the Wall (which he told Jon about in Ep. 201) could have climbed the Wall, then raced down the top of the Wall straight to Castle Black   There was NO NEED for them to wander around the The Gift (the territory given by the northern lords to the NW).  400 men, plus the wilding who actually DID climb the Wall with Jon and Ygritte, would have devastated the NW at Castle Black, period.  Mance had vastly overwhelming manpower.  Those 400 could have been 4,000 fightinig men almost just as easily.  Jon climbed thwe Wall.  Ygritte climbed the Wall.  They have no special climbing skills that I'm aware of, especially Jon.  It is inconceivable to me that, out of 100,000 wildlings Mance could not find 4,000 men capable of climbing the Wall and attacking Castle Black from the south side, especially with the highly experienced an skilled climbers assisting the less experienced and skilled.

No they couldn´t, dude. For one, they need to rest. Second, they need to feed. They can´t climb with packs and packs of food on their back. They can´t fight hungry, tired and burdened. Third, they need the rest of the army to move, and moving camp is much slower than marching fighting men. Mance doesn´t have the exact numbers of the Night´s Watch to be sure that 400 men will do, he doesn´t know the movement of troops south of the wall. Climbing/sailing in great numbers to attack forts from the south must have been the first idea on every single Wildling warchief´s mind ever, and it probably always failed for these very reasons (although I´m not nearly as knowledgeable of the lore as to know that for sure, someone might correct me).

40 minutes ago, Cron said:

(3)  Regarding your point that wildlings fight amongst themselves:  My friend, you are now arguing against things that actually DID happen.  Mance actually DID send the 400 men to climb the Wall.  Mance TOLD Jon about this in Ep. 201.  To the extent that action was reasonable and viable when Mance actually did it, it would have been reasonable and viable at the time I suggest it should have been done.

He sent those when they had a clear objective - climb and attack. They wouldn´t have to wait around for days like Jon´s group, or even march a long distance.

If Mance tried to climb 400 people in secret within marching range of Castle Black, the NW would simply spot it and man the Wall over there.

 

40 minutes ago, Cron said:

(4)  The reason the smaller force Mance sent was almost all killed or caputred was BECAUSE HE SENT TOO SMALL A FORCE.  To me, it is beyond dispute that if Mance had sent those extra 400 Wall climbers (or more) with Jon and Ygritte, the NW would have been totally overwhelmed and crushed.  INDEED, under those circumstances I think it's unlikely Jon would have been able to escape from the wildlings, to head back to the NW and warn them in the first place.

No, the reason was that the Giants were not able to break through the gates. It was a risk he took, which to him was better than the risk of drawing the attention of other armies. He felt he could win even if those "30" people died, but that he couldn´t win if he´d drawn the attention of someone else.

To me it´s beyond dispute that 400 foraging Wildlings would be spotted by someone in the North.

He also didn´t expect Jon to "turn his cloak". It might be questionable why would he send Jon in such a mission anyway, but I see it as a mistake Mance made based on the fact he projected himself/a son figure on Jon.