SER SHADRICH, HIS ALLIES AND ADVERSARIES.. (Morgarth, Byron, Creighton, Illifer)

[sweetsunray]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf

Very interestig about the chestnut heir. Something to ponder.

I've been gathering evidence to show how Brienne is an unreliable POV to assess trustworthiness. I've been analysing the dialogues in her conversations, and what is very striking is that if you remove her inner mind (which is a chatterbox), you end up with very one-sided conversations where her speech is formulaic or the question. She never has a social chat. She does not really greet people. She mutters a  goodnight. People may say something, and she answers in her head, but does not actually speak. Jaime's assessment that she's the least companiable person he ever met is correct. And the sad thing is that she doesn't do it on purpose. She's completely unaware of the fact that she does this. The whole issue with Ser Illifer drawing his knife is not so much over the Lothston bat but because she makes a fatal social error. These men offer her food (yup, trout, but let's put that aside for a moment) and warmth by a fire, they answer her question, offer food again; she asks them for their names; they give their names; and then she accepts and eats the offered food without ever introducing herself. She doesn't even have the intention to hide who she is. She simply forgets this.

And then eyes: she mentions the color of eyes of only 5 peoople (not counting Sansa): Hyle, Gendry, and thus Renly, and Willow and her sister Jeyne. Septon Meribald? Nope. Podrick, the boy she shouts "sword" for? Nope. Elder Brother to whom she confesses her life story? Nope. Shadrich? Nope. The hedge knights? Nope. Nimble Dick? Nope. With the last 3 she wonders whether she can trust them with her life. What would you do if you were traveling with a guy like Nimble Dick for weeks in some wilderness and suspect he may be leading you to a trap with accomplices to rob you? You would watch and study their eyes several times. Checking whether their smile reaches their eyes (as Sansa checks with LF). And inevitably you'd notice the color of their eyes, no? Jaime does this in aSoS with every one of his captors when he's unsure and dependent on them: Brienne, Urswyck, Roose, Qyburn, in memory Ned Stark entering the throne room. Only guy he never checks it with is the Goat, but who needs to know the Goat's eyes when evil drips off of him with buckets? Jaime notes the eye color each time: beautiful, big blue,honest determint eyes for Brienne, reddened eyes for corpse-like Urswyck, pale eyes (lighter than stone, darkr than milk) he dislikes with Roose, warm brown eyes for Qyburn, cold grey judgning eyes with Ned. He even thinks he can read people through their eyes. Admittedly he makes mistakes. He wonders about Qyburn and asks him how he ends up with the mosntrous Bloody Mummers. Qyburn's treatment of him convinces him to think well enough of him, but we know he is a monster that tortures and experiments on women and children in his dungeons. And Ned Stark's idea of honor is different from that of Selmy's and if he had known Jaime's reasons, it's not impossible that Ned would have understood Jaime differently.

Anyhow, while the eyes do not always say all, they are a big and natural part still of trying to assess someone's trustworthiness. And exactly with the men she is reluctant to trust we get no eye color, or hardly much any bit of eye information at all. That's utterly peculiar. All you have with the hedge knights is that she thinks they have "honest faces". But WTF? What's an "honest face"? I can't for the life imagine what an "honest face" looks like.

And it's kind of frustrating too. Because I as a reader want that as part of the information to assess for myself. But you absolutely cannot! Aaaagh! And it's the same thing with the voices. With Jaime you get Roose's hushed, soft but creepy spidery voice. Or you have Qyburn's lick spittle soothing voice. Well only thing you know about Shadrich is that he sounds cocksure. WTH does that mean?

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And it's kind of frustrating too. Because I as a reader want that as part of the information to assess for myself. But you absolutely cannot! Aaaagh! And it's the same thing with the voices. With Jaime you get Roose's hushed, soft but creepy spidery voice. Or you have Qyburn's lick spittle soothing voice. Well only thing you know about Shadrich is that he sounds cocksure. WTH does that mean?

  Well if Illifer and Creighton look like honest people to her, makes you wonder what "cocksure" sounds like to her.  Honestly, the way Creighton speaks about his "exploits" at the BotW sounds more cocksure to me.  By Shadrich's perceptive quips, he sounds more world-wise and calls 'em like he sees 'em.  Cocksure sounds more like arrogance without grounds to stand on.  Shadrich makes no such boasts about himself, only that he will "run toward danger" and seems to be quite aware of his own limitations.  I like your analysis of Brienne and it sounds like she could be on the autism spectrum.  I think it goes beyond mere innocence and naivete.  

There's another interesting part of her journey with Meribald and it happens just after the fox crossing their path part:

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Once a fox crossed their path, and set Meribald's dog to barking wildly.

And there were people too. Some lived amongst the reeds in houses built of mud and straw, whilst others fished the bay in leather coracles and built their homes on rickety wooden stilts above the dunes. Most seemed to live alone, out of sight of any human habitation but their own. They seemed a shy folk for the most part, but near midday the dog began to bark again, and three women emerged from the reeds to give Meribald a woven basket full of clams. He gave each of them an orange in return, though clams were as common as mud in this world, and oranges were rare and costly. One of the women was very old, one was heavy with child, and one was a girl as fresh and pretty as a flower in spring. When Meribald took them off to hear their sins, Ser Hyle chuckled, and said, "It would seem the gods walk with us . . . at least the Maiden, the Mother, and the Crone." Podrick looked so astonished that Brienne had to tell him no, they were only three marsh women.

Afterward, when they resumed their journey, she turned to the septon, and said, "These people live less than a day's ride from Maidenpool, and yet the fighting has not touched them."

"They have little to touch, my lady. Their treasures are shells and stones and leather boats, their finest weapons knives of rusted iron. They are born, they live, they love, they die. They know Lord Mooton rules their lands, but few have ever seen him, and Riverrun and King's Landing are only names to them."

I'm still trying to figure all this out.  The "shy folk" living among the "reeds" could point to the boggy area of the Neck ruled by Howland Reed as you've said before.  They even have little boats (coracles) just like Meera described.  What's interesting is later in the day, Dog barks (I'm putting a lot of stock in what Dog barks at now) and the 3 women who are compared to the Maiden, Mother, and Crone emerge to make a trade with Meribald:  3 oranges in exchange for a basket of clams.  My head is spinning so I'm not certain about this yet.  If oranges = helpfulness, self-sacrifice, it's significant there are 3 as in possibly our 3 hedge knights.  In return, there is a basket of "common as mud" clams.  Brienne may interpret the clams that way, but they do have value to these people.  It's probably a large part of their sustenance since they are largely cut off from the outside world as are the crannogmen.  I'm thinking that the "common" basket of clams is the bastard Alayne.  As a bastard, she is low-born and "common," but she has value in what's hidden inside the shell.  Also among their treasures are also "stones" or maybe Alayne Stone.  All 3 female aspects of the Seven have been prayed to by Sansa or for Sansa.  Catelyn prayed to the Maiden to protect her girls' innocence.  Sansa has prayed to both the Mother and Maiden.  Brienne prayed to the Crone to help find her.  The area that they are in has not been touched by war, much like the area of the crannogmen.  The crannogmen would technically know that Starks are their liege lords, but most would not have ventured from home or been involved in conflict.  As I've said before, if you want to hide someone, Greywater Watch might be the perfect place to do so.  The rest of the world seems to forget the crannogmen even exist.  I need to think on this more and I might not have it quite right, but this seems like a significant meeting.     

[sweetsunray]

40 minutes ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

I like your analysis of Brienne and it sounds like she could be on the autism spectrum.  I think it goes beyond mere innocence and naivete.  

It certaingly goes farther than that. She has somewhat of the social awkward symptoms with regards to autism spectrum (milder version), including being prone to look for the literal: "can't the Father see though hair?" and then Septa Roelle calling her a "slow child" (delayed language developments), or she noticing that the Stinking Goose smells bad but there's no goose in sight, asking the Mad Mouse whether he is mad, her being startled at people having issues with the sigil on her shield (the bat) when it's such a practical large one of good wood. And there's an example where Cat warns about Winter is coming and how the knights at Bitterbridge are Knights of Summer, and Brienne goes off into this tangent on how it's always summer for knights. While she goes on tangents, she lacks the obsessive going into details or a subject, and does not seem to have motoric issues either. There's the Pragmatical Language Impairment which is basically the communication issues of Autism Spectrum without all the other issues.

Ah yes, that's the scene that made think of "oranges" and Shadrich's orange hair. Well let's see: who's the Crone? That would be LS right? And the Maiden would be Sansa. The Mother who's pregnant would be Lyanna. And for some reason the "clams" especially with Maiden, Mother and Crone had a gender connotation to me. Swords are phallic. Clams and roses are female.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

58 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Ah yes, that's the scene that made think of "oranges" and Shadrich's orange hair. Well let's see: who's the Crone? That would be LS right? And the Maiden would be Sansa. The Mother who's pregnant would be Lyanna. And for some reason the "clams" especially with Maiden, Mother and Crone had a gender connotation to me. Swords are phallic. Clams and roses are female

Well that does make sense if you consider.  Brienne swore a vow to Catelyn to find Sansa.  That got vow got too mangled with her vow to Jaime, so now she's in a position with LS where she has to "choose" and re-affirm her vow with the Crone.  HR would have felt he owed a debt to Lyanna (and because of friendship with the other Starks) who defended him at Harrenhal, which led to her relationship with Rhaegar and the pregnancy that killed her.  He can make good by protecting her niece.  Sandor made a promise that he would kill anyone that tried to hurt Sansa, but he wasn't in a state he could keep that promise.  The appearance of the 3 women is like a divine providence that the timing is right to make good on old promises and debts.  Meribald goes off to listen to their confessions of sins, which sounds like the guilt and regrets all these women had also need to be put to rest now.  Well, yeah there is that whole clam thing.          

[Ashes Of Westeros]

12 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

The appearance of the 3 women is like a divine providence that the timing is right to make good on old promises and debts.

I totaly forgot about this scene! There must whola lotta of meanings there. I would also point out the mud. The word mud is also connected to Asha, thus Iron Islands. I just checked ADWD, the word "mud" has been repeated many times in her POVs. And even with Dorne, see Selmy's POV where he compared Quentyn with mud:

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You could make a poultice out of mud to cool a fever. You could plant seeds in mud and grow a crop to feed your children. Mud would nourish you, where fire would only consume you, but fools and children and young girls would choose fire every time.

"Shy people" stayed safe because they chose mud over fire (the war). I don't know how it is connected to the story, but I'm positive somehow it does.

 

[sweetsunray]

4 hours ago, Ashes Of Westeros said:

I would also point out the mud. The word mud is also connected to Asha, thus Iron Islands. I just checked ADWD, the word "mud" has been repeated many times in her POVs.

 

4 hours ago, Ashes Of Westeros said:

"Shy people" stayed safe because they chose mud over fire (the war). I don't know how it is connected to the story, but I'm positive somehow it does.

Yes, I noticed the mud word being mentioned often in Brienne's POV too, not just in the Maiden-Mother-Crone passages amongst the reeds. The first time it's mentioned is when Podrick bumps into her in the alley in Duskendale. He lands in the mud. When she apprehends him afterwards on the road, he lands again in the mud. And Podrick is extremely shy with signs of delayed development in speech: both Sansa and Tyrion noticed he rarely speaks, he stammers, interrupts his speech often to explain himself, and he often takes people at their words, having literal understanding. In many ways he takes people at their words like a 7-year old, though he's 12. Brienne also feels an enormous amount of empathy for him once she apprehends him and he begins to explain himself. He's imo the boy-version of who she was as a young girl.

House Mudd were once the Kings of Rivers and Hills at the castle now called Oldstones (the ruins). They were the last First Men dynasty in the Riverlands (all the way to the Blackwater Rush) to be defeated by the Andals, and reigned for over a thousand years.

[The Sleeper]

Couldn't ser Shadrich be who he appears to be? A lordless knight looking out for a payday?

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

There is a ton of mud in Brienne's chapters in AFFC, but it's not always a positive association.  Mud can kill too if you don't know your way around it.  And more oranges!

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"Stay off the mud, child," counseled Septon Meribald. "The mud is not fond of strangers. If you walk in the wrong place, it will open up and swallow you."

"It's only mud," insisted Podrick.

"Until it fills your mouth and starts creeping up your nose. Then it's death." He smiled to take the chill off his words. "Wipe off that mud and have a slice of orange, lad."

The next day was more of the same. They broke their fast on salt cod and more orange slices, and were on their way before the sun was wholly risen, with a pink sky behind them and a purple sky ahead. Dog led the way, sniffing at every clump of reeds and stopping every now and then to piss on one; he seemed to know the road as well as Meribald. The cries of terns shivered through the morning air as the tide came rushing in.

 

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cross the mud with me. The path of faith, we call it. Only the faithful may cross safely. The wicked are swallowed by the quicksands, or drowned when the tide comes rushing in. None of you are wicked, I hope? Even so, I would be careful where I set my feet. Walk only where I walk, and you shall reach the other side."

The path of faith was a crooked one, Brienne could not help but note. Though the island seemed to rise to the northeast of where they left the shore, Septon Meribald did not make directly for it. Instead, he started due east, toward the deeper waters of the bay, which shimmered blue and silver in the distance. The soft brown mud squished up between his toes. As he walked he paused from time to time, to probe ahead with his quarterstaff. Dog stayed near his heels, sniffing at every rock, shell, and clump of seaweed. For once he did not bound ahead or stray.

Brienne followed, taking care to keep close to the line of prints left by the dog, the donkey, and the holy man. Then came Podrick, and last of all Ser Hyle. A hundred yards out, Meribald turned abruptly toward the south, so his back was almost to the septry. He proceeded in that direction for another hundred yards, leading them between two shallow tidal pools. Dog stuck his nose in one and yelped when a crab pinched it with his claw. A brief but furious struggle ensued before the dog came trotting back, wet and mud-spattered, with the crab between his jaws.

We have two warnings about the dangers of the tides rushing in. There's the cries of the birds "shivering" through the air (death cries from being buried under snow?).  Then there's the wicked being swallowed by the quicksands or drowned with the tides.  To not get swallowed up or drowned and make it through safely, you need to stick close to the holy man who knows the way.  Dog knows the road, but Meribald knows how to navigate the mud safely.  @sweetsunray I think at this point, this mud and tide coming in sounds a lot like your earthquake and avalanche swallowing up the Eyrie and it's waycastles, and maybe even the Gates of the Moon.  Mud is a combination of earth and water as well as rock and ice is a combination of earth and water.  "It will open up and swallow you" sounds like the earthquake opening up the ground under people and then the avalanche burying people.  There's also a literal connection between the moon and tides.  You got the Mountains of the Moon and you also have a Moonmaiden who has just come back down to earth.  If she leaves, does that not pull the tides in her wake?  Dog is leading the way here.   What's up with Dog pissing on the reeds?    As they get closer to their destination, it's Meribald leading and Dog staying at his heels, except for this peculiar fight with a crab. *edit*  I was just reading that crabs are symbolicly associated with the Moon as are all shelled sea creatures (clams!)  When the tide is out, and the time is right, Dog goes for the crab, gets his nose pinched (cause he can smell a lie), but makes off with the crab anyway.  Wife stealing anyone!?!  

There's magical connections between mud and the Reeds according to Jojen and Meera in Bran I & II, ASOS:

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The gods give many gifts, Bran. My sister is a hunter. It is given to her to run swiftly, and stand so still she seems to vanish. She has sharp ears, keen eyes, a steady hand with net and spear. She can breathe mud and fly through trees. 

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"No," said Meera, "but he could breathe mud and run on leaves, and change earth to water and water to earth with no more than a whispered word. He could talk to trees and weave words and make castles appear and disappear."

So both HR and Meera can breathe mud and HR can change earth and water back and forth.  The in-between state would presumably be mud.  The breathing mud part is very curious and it's repeated twice so it's got to be important.  He can not just navigate the mud, but thrive in what otherwise would kill people.  So much freaking mud to sift through!!!     

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

53 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Couldn't ser Shadrich be who he appears to be? A lordless knight looking out for a payday?

Sure he could just be some guy, but there's just way too many hints to suggest he isn't.  He's introduced to us by Brienne, who has demonstrated she's not good at sussing people out if they are trustworthy or not.  Look at her not being able to see Creighton and Illifer for the obvious liars that they are?  She tends to take many things too literally, doesn't get sarcasm, and has trouble reading faces.  So we probably shouldn't take her assessments of Shadrich at face value.          

[sweetsunray]

8 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

We have two warnings about the dangers of the tides rushing in. There's the cries of the birds "shivering" through the air (death cries from being buried under snow?).  Then there's the wicked being swallowed by the quicksands or drowned with the tides.  To not get swallowed up or drowned and make it through safely, you need to stick close to the holy man who knows the way.  Dog knows the road, but Meribald knows how to navigate the mud safely.  @sweetsunray I think at this point, this mud and tide coming in sounds a lot like your earthquake and avalanche swallowing up the Eyrie and it's waycastles, and maybe even the Gates of the Moon.

Yes, it does. And the scene where Biter covers her, suffocates her, and make it impossible for her to move also has pointers to it.

 

8 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

What's up with Dog pissing on the reeds?  

I remember lifting my eyebrows on that too. He'll probably say something along the lines of "Piss on that!"

9 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

When the tide is out, and the time is right, Dog goes for the crab, gets his nose pinched (cause he can smell a lie), but makes off with the crab anyway.  Wife stealing anyone!?!  

Absolutely!

 

9 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

So both HR and Meera can breathe mud and HR can change earth and water back and forth.  The in-between state would presumably be mud.  The breathing mud part is very curious and it's repeated twice so it's got to be important.  He can not just navigate the mud, but thrive in what otherwise would kill people.  So much freaking mud to sift through!!!     

Reading Meera's claims about HR has made me wonder whether some magic might be involved in bringing down the avalanche. Snow is fluffy frozen water really, resting on rock and earth. A shift here. A wind gust there. Or maybe some will afterward claim it was the "children's" magic, like with the Hammer of the Waters.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Yes, it does. And the scene where Biter covers her, suffocates her, and make it impossible for her to move also has pointers to it

I was just reading that scene.  "Avalanche" is specifically to describe Biter's tackle.  It's raining in that scene where Brienne is facing Rorge in the Hound's helm and she recalls later the mud under her and the lightning flashing and the thunder crashing.  Lightening could represent fire of the gods, so yeah it's my feeling this has a magical cause.  "His face it was like punching a ball of wet white dough" then 

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 Biter threw back his head and opened his mouth again, howling, and stuck his tongue out at her. It was sharply pointed, dripping blood, longer than any tongue should be. Sliding from his mouth, out and out and out, red and wet and glistening, it made a hideous sight, obscene. His tongue is a foot long, Brienne thought, just before the darkness took her. Why, it looks almost like a sword

Does he not then resemble a really, really scary weirwood face with his weeping sores on his face and the teeth and long bloody tongue that looks like a sword?  Like this is full on wrath of the old gods come back?  The hammer of the waters was rumored to involve human sacrifice.  "Some stories claim they sacrificed a thousand captive humans to weirwoods, while others claim the greenseers used blood from their own youths" -- from the wiki.  Biter does break her arm as in "breaking the arm of Dorne?"  He grabs her neck in his hands and slams her head down as in the creation of the Neck?   

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

He'll probably say something along the lines of "Piss on that!"

That conversation would be priceless. So would the bride stealing if she thinks Byron is trying to collect the ransom and puts up a fight lol          

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

I was just reading that scene.  "Avalanche" is specifically to describe Biter's tackle.  It's raining in that scene where Brienne is facing Rorge in the Hound's helm and she recalls later the mud under her and the lightning flashing and the thunder crashing.  Lightening could represent fire of the gods, so yeah it's my feeling this has a magical cause.  "His face it was like punching a ball of wet white dough" then

 

2 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Does he not then resemble a really, really scary weirwood face with his weeping sores on his face and the teeth and long bloody tongue that looks like a sword?

 

2 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Biter does break her arm as in "breaking the arm of Dorne?"  He grabs her neck in his hands and slams her head down as in the creation of the Neck?

All of that, yes!!!!! And Nimble Dick's death at the foot of the weirwood at the Whispers has allusions to the scenes of Mythological Astronomy for @LmL The morningstar that Shagwell uses has 3 spheres. Brienne is at some point standing in between Timeon (Dornish, sun related) and Shagwell, eclipse like, deliberating who to kill first. Like the Red Viper-Mountain fight she hacks of the "head of the spear" that wounded her shoulder. And Oathkeeper flies around as if empowered by magic in her opinion. Nimble Dick was the sacrifice here. Oh, and one of the things they notice, before the 3 Bloody Mummers come out of hiding is that a fire was made, and she buries "2 dragons" with Nimble Dick.

[LmL]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

 

 

All of that, yes!!!!! And Nimble Dick's death at the foot of the weirwood at the Whispers has allusions to the scenes of Mythological Astronomy for @LmL The morningstar that Shagwell uses has 3 spheres. Brienne is at some point standing in between Timeon (Dornish, sun related) and Shagwell, eclipse like, deliberating who to kill first. Like the Red Viper-Mountain fight she hacks of the "head of the spear" that wounded her shoulder. And Oathkeeper flies around as if empowered by magic in her opinion. Nimble Dick was the sacrifice here. Oh, and one of the things they notice, before the 3 Bloody Mummers come out of hiding is that a fire was made, and she buries "2 dragons" with Nimble Dick.

I'm actually all over the Biter scene you're discussing too. I see Biter as the ice moon here, and Brienne as a Morninstar meteor being imbedded inside of it. This is the most cryptic part of my basic astronomy scenario, but I think it's important. If there were really two moons, I certainly think they were ice and fire moons. When the fire moon blew up and turned into black meteor dragons, some of that moon shrapnel would have probably hit the survive (ice) moon as well as Planetos. Those blck fire moon meteors are Lightbringer (the dark kind), they play the Morningstar role. When we see a black dragon meteor symbol or person have sex with or stab an ice symbol, I belive we are seeing the ice moon become infected with the black fire / corrupted fire of the blck moon meteors. NK impreganting the icy moon pale corpse queen is one example, and Rhaegar impreganting Lyanna is another. Brienne, a Morningstar figure with a black meteor sword, is "eaten" and "buried" by Biter's avalanche, just like a meteor embedding into the ice moon. Biter is huge, he becomes the world or something like that, and all the rest of the white and doughy clues lend itself to a round moon face type of image. 

The way I see it, this is what explains the state of all things ice - specifically, the idea that ice can burn. The Others have brining blue star eyes, almost like they have internal fire, but cold fire. The heart of winter sees possessed. I think it's a parallel to the ice moon, which ate a fire moon meteor and basically "froze" its fire magic. 

Thus, Brienne's new status, after surviving the death experience of the hanging and Biter's attack, will be analogous to the frozen version of Azor Ahai reborn, which is exactly what Jon Snow represents. This cold AA reborn represents the offspring of the ice moon and the black dragon meteor, which is a form of Lightbringer.

And yes I absolutely think that pretty much anytime we see an arm breaking and a neck injury where other Lightbronger symbolism is going on, that's referring to the Hammer of the Waters, the Arm of Dorne, and the Neck. Gendry starts the scene smithing, then come out with his hammer in hand right as the lightning flashes. I've quoted that scene a bit but I will be coming back to it when I do my ice moon / fire moon essay.  

[Nevets]

16 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Couldn't ser Shadrich be who he appears to be? A lordless knight looking out for a payday?

Apparently, just because there are a bunch of accepted hidden identities in AFFC ( I count four, with a couple more from the other books as possibilities), now everyone has to have a secret identity.

15 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Sure he could just be some guy, but there's just way too many hints to suggest he isn't.  He's introduced to us by Brienne, who has demonstrated she's not good at sussing people out if they are trustworthy or not.  Look at her not being able to see Creighton and Illifer for the obvious liars that they are?  She tends to take many things too literally, doesn't get sarcasm, and has trouble reading faces.  So we probably shouldn't take her assessments of Shadrich at face value.          

I don't base my assessment that Shadrich is nobody special on Brienne's assessment of him.  I base it on his actions and statements.  They are the actions and statements of a hedge knight who lost at Blackwater and is flat broke looking for a payday. 

A few questions:

Why would Howland Reed be on the road from KL to Duskendale in the first place?  It's too soon after Sansa's disappearance to get there from Greywater Watch, especially through a conflict zone.  And news gets to Greywater late, if at all in any case.

Why would he be taking employment from a skinflint merchant like Hibald unless he's desperate for money?

Why is he so open about his intention to sell Sansa to Varys (and presumably Cersei).  If he gets any help that way it's going to be people who can't be trusted.

What's with the orange hair?

Why would the Elder Brother suddenly pick up stakes after 15 years, especially since his skills seem to be prized by the locals, who may well be dependent upon them.  What would he hope to accomplish, in any case?

Sandor Clegane under glamour.  Can you offer a shred of evidence that that is the case.  I don't even see anyone capable of using magic in the vicinity, let alone anything else to even suggest the barest possibility of a glamour.   As opposed to Ser Byron being who he appears to be, that is.  Wishful thinking doesn't count.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

@Nevets Here's the link to my summary on why I think SC=Byron  .  It just got buried in the middle of this thread, but I did lay everything out, so that can answer most of your questions.  I focused more on that aspect rather than HR=Shadrich, since the OP already tackled that.  I think we're talking about a massive collection of circumstantial evidence that seems to point one way.  Just as an example, it's not spelled out with scientific certainty that R+L=J, there's just a ton of hints from characters as well as GRRM inserting symbols to hint at it.  While the idea on these men is not as big of a deal as the above theory, circumstantial and symbolic evidence does have it's value and shouldn't be written off without serious consideration.  

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

 They are the actions and statements of a hedge knight who lost at Blackwater and is flat broke looking for a payday

Well, that is what he said, but is there a reason to also take everything he says at face value?  I don't take Creighton and Illifer's claim that they were also at Blackwater seriously because everything else about them seems like empty boasting.  Maybe or maybe not, but it makes a good and plausible story even if they are just grifters that scavenged some armor and weapons.  It doesn't occur to Brienne to leave them until Shadrich plants the idea that these guys are false.  He tells her there's other people hunting Sansa and will turn her in for the gold and that her story about her sister is not fooling anyone.  These two probably would betray her if they happened to stumble on Sansa.  A broke man offering to share half the gold with someone who is clearly not cut out for detective work seems flimsy as his reason.  You could also read it as testing Brienne to see what her motivations are.  She doesn't jump all over his offer, so that shows she isn't motivated by money, but she's still not good at this and won't be a help.    

Quote

Ser Shadrich laughed. "Oh, I doubt that, but it may be that you and I share a quest. A little lost sister, is it? With blue eyes and auburn hair?" He laughed again. "You are not the only hunter in the woods. I seek for Sansa Stark as well."

Brienne kept her face a mask, to hide her dismay. "Who is this Sansa Stark, and why do you seek her?"

"For love, why else?"

She furrowed her brow. "Love?"

"Aye, love of gold. Unlike your good Ser Creighton, I did fight upon the Blackwater, but on the losing side. My ransom ruined me. You know who Varys is, I trust? The eunuch has offered a plump bag of gold for this girl you've never heard of. I am not a greedy man. If some oversized wench would help me find this naughty child, I would split the Spider's coin with her."

"I thought you were in this merchant's hire."

"Only so far as Duskendale. Hibald is as niggardly as he is fearful. And he is very fearful. What say you, wench?"

"I know no Sansa Stark," she insisted. "I am searching for my sister, a highborn girl . . ."

". . . with blue eyes and auburn hair, aye. Pray, who is this knight who travels with your sister? Or did you name him fool?" Ser Shadrich did not wait for her answer, which was good, since she had none. "A certain fool vanished from King's Landing the night King Joffrey died, a stout fellow with a nose full of broken veins, one Ser Dontos the Red, formerly of Duskendale. I pray your sister and her drunken fool are not mistaken for the Stark girl and Ser Dontos. That could be most unfortunate." He put his heels into his courser and trotted on ahead.

 

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Why would Howland Reed be on the road from KL to Duskendale in the first place?  It's too soon after Sansa's disappearance to get there from Greywater Watch, especially through a conflict zone.  And news gets to Greywater late, if at all in any case.

Well people do find it sensible to band up and travel together for safety.  The PW happened on the first day of the new year and this is almost 1 month later.  It is tight if he's coming from Greywater Watch.  However, if he was at Blackwater as he said, he would have been in the general area many months prior and the Wot5K has been going on for months prior to that.  If Stannis had won the war, he may have hoped to make contact with Sansa or at least be able to keep closer tabs on her to develop a plan.  He did fight on the Baratheon side in Robert's Rebellion.  Meera says in her story of the crannogman to Bran that he (her father) was able to travel passed the Twins by himself without getting caught.  He has experience traveling through enemy territory by boat.  The crannog are very self-sufficient hunters as they are isolated and live in a highly inhospitable area.  I don't know how many places there are to spend gold in a swamp, so I don't get the impression the crannog need or value gold as much as in other areas.  Meera and Jojen are perfectly capable of travelling through the war-torn north and living off the land as they go.  Why not their father?  As a "hedge knight" on the roads, he may have found it prudent to travel with a party, at least to his destination of Duskendale.  Getting "hired" just seems to be out of convenience and safety rather than for desperate need for money.  Besides, you never know what information you can learn from other travelers as we've seen.  He already knew of Dontos, so Duskendale would be a perfectly logical place to start looking when Sansa disappeared.  Everyone looking for Sansa was hitting up Duskendale.    

I answered all your other questions in my linked post, plus we've discovered some more interesting bits from thoroughly going over Brienne's journey in AFFC in the subsequent conversations.

[sweetsunray]

Have been thinking on the proposal that the old woman in the horse litter is Lady Shella Whent. And I think a very strong case can be made for her.

The mysterious ward of Gyles Rosby

Two names are offered for the ward - Olyvar Frey and Tyrek Lannister. I think we can ruler out Tyrek, for one major reason: while George has kept the identity of the ward a secret to the reader, it is not a secret for Pycelle, Cersei, Falyse and others. The characters in KL speak of the ward as if they know who he is. So, it cannot be Tyrek, since everybody believes he died in the riot.

Falyse Stokeworth believes she has a claim on Rosby, because her mother was an aunt to Gyles' second wife and was a third cousin of Rosby. But Walder Frey's 7th wife was Lady Bethany Rosby. Gyles is said to be childless. Still, this would not directly rule out Bethany being his daughter, since she was already dead. Still, Cersei claims the ward is not of "Gyles' blood", so Bethany must have been at most a niece to Gyles. And since there are so many Freys, it is likely that Cersei simply assumes that Olyvar has no Rosby blood. Anyhow, if her name is Rosby she must be the daughter of a male relation to Gyles, which would make Bethany's children have more claim to Rosby than Falyse ever can have.

There is a sneaky tactic that George hammers down on the word ward. It suggests to readers that the ward must be someone who is under age. But this assumption by the reader is false. Both Theon Greyjoy, Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon were regarded as wards to their respective forster fathers (even in Theon's case as a ward-hostage) even when they were 18 and older already. The way Falyse words the refusal of being admitted into Rosby on her way to King's Landing from Stokeworth suggests the ward is not some child where the castellan or maester makes the decisions, but the ward himself. While he may still take advice, the ward seems sure and old enough to have command over the keep.

Olyvar was 18 when he squired for the younger Robb Stark. Olyvar is not a grandson or far off cousin of Lord Walder Frey. He is one of Walder Frey's sons. Now Walder also tends to send his sons to their mother's kin to squire, if they do not study for maester or septon. As Walder Frey's son, surely Olyvar would have been able to squire for other men at the Twins and be a knight at 18, if he grew up at the Twins. Unless he did not grow up at the Twins at all. As Gyles' ward he would have grown up at Rosby, not the Twins. But Gyles was so old already that Olyvar's squire experience would not be enough to be knighted. It's likely that Olyvar was visiting and jumped on his chance to squire for Robb. He wanted to remain with Robb, even after Robb married Jeyne Westerling (and not Roslin), but still was made to go, and yet he is not seen at the Twins. Bethany's eldest son Perwyn is purposefully kept away too, because he did not agree with the plans for the Red Wedding.

The ward would have 2 reasons to refuse entry to Falyse Stokeworth. From Gyles he'd already know she's a Lannister lackey. He also very personally knows how greedy the Lannisters are. There's Ermisandre who was wedded to Tyrek Lannister while she was a baby too. While Riverrun is rewarded to Emmon Frey, this is because Emmon is wedded to Genna Lannister. Darry is rewarded to Lancel Lannister who is wedded to Opengate Amy. And though Olyvar's sister Roslin is wedded to Lord Edmure Tully and with child, she and her child are barred from getting anything, since Riverrun was rewarded to Emmon Frey.  And he knows at what length the Lannisters would go - they use their lackeys to break guest right. And the persons most likely to be killed by guests breaking guest right without anyone caring would be a Frey. And of course, the ward would have often seen Falyse visit Rosby in the past, and she probably often remarked on her distant relation to the Rosby family. The ward is not taking any risks. Even if the crown decides on another claimant for Rosby, they still have to acquire the castle. Best plan to preserve his claim on Rosby for the ward is to make sure nobody believing they have a claim is gained admittance. (and of course we have a bastard from Walder Frey being maester there too).

Shella Whent

Another reason to barr the doors is because the ward is sheltering someone. Many readers often hope it's the Blackfish. But the ward's refusel to admit Falyse happens before the Blackfish's escape. So, it's not the Blackfish. And so we have the old woman in the horse litter and with personal guards (on horses) traveling from Duskendale to Rosby, early on in aFfC, while Gyles is at KL. She is the person the ward does not want anyone to know to be in Rosby. Shella Whent fled after yielding HH to Tywin.  She was homeless and we never know where exactly where she hid all that time. I propose she actually stayed at Maidenpool for a long while with Lord Mooton. Lord Mooton's older brother was Rhaegar's friend as was Oswell Whent (KG, cousin and brother in law to Shella). And this was the main reason that the current Lord Mooton kept the gates of his keep shut when Maidenpool was raided by lions, wolves and then outlaws. After the last raid Mooton likely begged Shella to leave, especially with the news of Lord Tarly marching from Duskendale to Maidenpool.

Where to go? We know of 2 other Whents. One was married to Walder Frey once, but had no children. Walder Frey also turned against Robb Stark, performed the Red Wedding and is now a lackey of the Lannisters. The other Whent was Minisa, wife of Hoster Tully, and mother of Catelyn, Lysa and Edmure. These are the last distant relations that Shella has. But Catelyn was killed at the RW, WF is sacked, and aside from Tyrion's wife Sansa no other Stark is known to be alive. Shella would not have heard about fArya until long after Ramsay's marriage to her. So, Shella would not sail for White Harbor. Lysa's son is Lord of the Vale, so this would be tempting, except for the news that certainly would have reached Maidenpool from Gulltown - that Lysa married to the Lord of Harrenhal, Littlefinger. Though Shella yielded the castle to Tywin, Janos Slyntwas granted HH, and after him Littlefinger. That leaves Edmure, lord of RR, her closest male relation. Except for the fact that Edmure is a captive at the Twins and RR is besieged by Freys and Lannisters. Edmure's wife though is Roslin, sister of Olyvar, who is expecting a child.

Shella Whent probably embarked on a ship at Maidenpool sailing for Duskendale, and from Duskendale traveled overland to Rosby, to the sole person who might be willing to shelter her: the good brother of Edmure, uncle of Edmure's unborn son or daughter, Stark sympathizer and anti-Lannister, ward of Gyles Rosby, Olyvar Frey.

And she would have 3 reasons to refrain from using her sigil: she is wanted by the crown to bend the knee, even if the Whent sigil is not the same as the Lothston bat, it is very recognizable and memorable. Nor can she trust that common folk would not mistake the Whent bats for a Lothston bat. So, she travels completely incognito. 

By helping Olyvar with Rosby, Shella is also helping out Edmure's child. Though Olyvar is young, may still marry and have children of his own, Roslin's child (and thus Edmure's) would be in line of inheriting Rosby in the future.

[sweetsunray]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf and @Nevets

One of the reasons to not take Shadrich's background story at face value is Brienne's response to Ser Creighton's stories.

Ser Creighton claims to have slain Ser Herbert Bolling, then later mentions he fought a dozen fearsome knights with names that she never heard of. House Tarth is of the Stormlands, as was Renly. She then rides all the way to Highgarden and lives in the camp with the knights and hedge knights and sworn swords. They court her for their game, but she gets to know many there. She travels with them to Bitterbridge, where she fights her melee (what according to Shadrich is all a hedge knight can hope for in a tourney) and is the melee's champion. Then she escorts Renly to the point of rendez vous with Stannis outside of Storm's End.

After Renly's death many knights defect to Stannis, who had little support to begin with. Since Shadrich claims to have been made poor because of his ransom, this would mean he fought on Stannis' side, and was no follower of Stannis on conviction, but opportunity, just like most of the defectors after Renly's death. And yet, Brienne has never heard of him nor seen him. On top of that, Shadrich also leaves out any identification information about who took him, whom he had to pay ransom. He gives a story that is unverifiable. What are the chances that a cocky Shadrich with glaring orange hair and a game with much golden dragons at stake would not have participated in Hyle's game or would have been completely unnoticed by Brienne at Highgarden all the way to Bitterbridge if he is who he claims to be? I'd say 0%. 

[Nevets]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf and @sweetsunray

Nice try!  And I'm not buying a word of it

On 10/2/2016 at 4:47 PM, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Well, that is what he said, but is there a reason to also take everything he says at face value?  I don't take Creighton and Illifer's claim that they were also at Blackwater seriously because everything else about them seems like empty boasting.  Maybe or maybe not, but it makes a good and plausible story even if they are just grifters that scavenged some armor and weapons.  It doesn't occur to Brienne to leave them until Shadrich plants the idea that these guys are false.  He tells her there's other people hunting Sansa and will turn her in for the gold and that her story about her sister is not fooling anyone.  These two probably would betray her if they happened to stumble on Sansa.  A broke man offering to share half the gold with someone who is clearly not cut out for detective work seems flimsy as his reason.  You could also read it as testing Brienne to see what her motivations are.  She doesn't jump all over his offer, so that shows she isn't motivated by money, but she's still not good at this and won't be a help.    

I think it's clear that Brienne doesn't take them at face value either.  "If I fear the likes of these, I had as well swap my longsword for a set of knitting needles." and "Hedge knights, old and vain and near-sighted, and yet decent men for all that."  She knows they are full of shit,, and is only travelling with them because it's convenient to do so.  She leaves for a lot of reasons, Shadrich among them.

I don't know why he would turn down her help if he was trying to help Sansa.  She is big, has armor and a sword, which she clearly knows how to use, and is interested in helping Sansa.  While she may not be cut out for detective work (I think the jury is still out on that), she would certainly be useful in a fight, or in preventing one.  She showed good tactical sense with Jaime, for example.  The Riverlands in particular are still not entirely safe.  Also, if you are going to convince a 13 year-old girl you are there to help her, having a young woman with you might be useful, especially one who knew Sansa's mother.  His words and his actions suggest a mercenary motive, and his offer to share the reward would probably attract people who wouldn't have Sansa's interests at heart.  If he were truly interested in helping Sansa, he wouldn't have made that particular offer and would have tried to suss out her motives, if only to determine whether on not she was a threat.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

@Blue-Eyed Wolf and @Nevets

One of the reasons to not take Shadrich's background story at face value is Brienne's response to Ser Creighton's stories.

Ser Creighton claims to have slain Ser Herbert Bolling, then later mentions he fought a dozen fearsome knights with names that she never heard of. House Tarth is of the Stormlands, as was Renly. She then rides all the way to Highgarden and lives in the camp with the knights and hedge knights and sworn swords. They court her for their game, but she gets to know many there. She travels with them to Bitterbridge, where she fights her melee (what according to Shadrich is all a hedge knight can hope for in a tourney) and is the melee's champion. Then she escorts Renly to the point of rendez vous with Stannis outside of Storm's End.

After Renly's death many knights defect to Stannis, who had little support to begin with. Since Shadrich claims to have been made poor because of his ransom, this would mean he fought on Stannis' side, and was no follower of Stannis on conviction, but opportunity, just like most of the defectors after Renly's death. And yet, Brienne has never heard of him nor seen him. On top of that, Shadrich also leaves out any identification information about who took him, whom he had to pay ransom. He gives a story that is unverifiable. What are the chances that a cocky Shadrich with glaring orange hair and a game with much golden dragons at stake would not have participated in Hyle's game or would have been completely unnoticed by Brienne at Highgarden all the way to Bitterbridge if he is who he claims to be? I'd say 0%. 

Given the size of Renly's host, and the size of his cavalry, I suspect Shadrich was one of hundreds, or even thousands, or hedge knights and freeriders.  I seriously doubt she would have met all, or even very many, of them.  The men in the maidenhead game were, iirc, close to Tarly, one of the main commanders.  It is also likely that the participants in the melee had high-level connections as well.  The fact that she doesn't recognize Shadrich in no way indicates that he wasn't there.  Also, Stannis had his own freeriders and it is likely that he picked up some after Renly's demise, when his star was ascendant.

To be honest, this looks like wishful thinking presented as a theory.  "It would be neat if Ser Shadrich was Howland Reed."  Since there is nothing directly contradicting it, it sounds plausible.  The problem is, there is no real support for it, either, and plenty of reasons to doubt it.  While I doubt Shadrich is in the Vale by coincidence, and suspect that the other two may be working with him, I don't think they are there to help Sansa.  They are there because they think they can turn her presence there to their advantage somehow.

[sweetsunray]

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Given the size of Renly's host, and the size of his cavalry, I suspect Shadrich was one of hundreds, or even thousands, or hedge knights and freeriders.  I seriously doubt she would have met all, or even very many, of them.  The men in the maidenhead game were, iirc, close to Tarly, one of the main commanders.  It is also likely that the participants in the melee had high-level connections as well.  The fact that she doesn't recognize Shadrich in no way indicates that he wasn't there.  Also, Stannis had his own freeriders and it is likely that he picked up some after Renly's demise, when his star was ascendant.

Then by the same reasoning, Brienne doubting Ser Creighton's story of fighting and slaying 13 knights she doesnt know or heard of should be disregarded as well. But that certainly is not what George implied. Once you accept the implied meaning that Ser Creighton was lying about his battle victories at the Blackwater because aside from Ser Herbert Bollings she knew none of the names and sigils, then by extension the same can be applied to Ser Shadrich. You can't have it both ways.

And no, several of the men playing the game were not all close to Tarly or main commanders. Ser Hyle Hunt was a knight of a house sworn to Tarly. But several others do not get any particular mention in connection to Tarly. I think you should re-read that. And while the game began amongst three, it soon expanded so that men fought to sit with her. Brienne isn't in command or one of Tarly's high level knights, and thus not particularly seated in an Tarly-only area, nor is a commander such as Tarly restricted to only lecturing and demoting his own sworn swords.

[Nevets]

12 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Then by the same reasoning, Brienne doubting Ser Creighton's story of fighting and slaying 13 knights she doesnt know or heard of should be disregarded as well. But that certainly is not what George implied. Once you accept the implied meaning that Ser Creighton was lying about his battle victories at the Blackwater because aside from Ser Herbert Bollings she knew none of the names and sigils, then by extension the same can be applied to Ser Shadrich. You can't have it both ways.

No.  I (and Brienne) disbelieve Creighton's story because it sounds exaggerated and doesn't match his appearance, for one thing.  It's completely ridiculous and unbelievable from the outset.  Shadrich's story is quite believable and matches his appearance and actions (providing security for a skinflint merchant).