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What was Varys intention in telling Ned Robert was in danger?


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Ok, in this episode Varys finally speaks to Ned one on one, claiming that he needed a month of spying on him to determine he was trustworthy enough. He now thinks Ned is a man of honor like himself. Ok then he proceeds to tell him that the King is a fool and is in danger of being poisoned by the tears of Lys like Jon Arryan was unless Ned saves him.


I understand that Varys is trying to get Ned to consider Littlefinger may be behind it. ("There was one boy, everything he was he owed to Jon Arryan") Of course Ned thinks Varys is talking about the squire Ser Hugh but we all know that as is actually the case, he's talking about Littlefinger. So is Varys trying to subtly get Ned to not think the Lannisters were behind this and to instead suspect Littlefinger but Ned is already so swayed by Littlefinger's manipulation that the Lannisters were behind Arryan's murder and the squire was simply paid off by them. When Ned proves to be convinced by Littlefinger's version of events, Varys doesn't press the point.


Next scene, Varys is speaking secretly with Illryio and seems resigned to the fact that the Starks and Lannisters will soon be at war and it's why he comes up with the idea to tell Robert and attempt to assassinate Dany which would motivate Drogo to immediately invade Westeros while the Starks and Lannisters are at war.


Am I getting this right? If so, where does Robert being killed in the same way enter into this equation? Why does Varys also warn Ned that Robert is in danger? Is it because Vays wants Robert to be killed by the Dothraki and not Littlefinger?


This is giving me migraines! lol

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In the books Stannis was investigating Robert's children with Jon Arryn and fled to Dragonstone upon Jon's death and began to prepare for the coming war as he probably suspected Robert would be killed soon as well. It seems in the show Stannis was already on dragonstone and had no clue about the Jaime-Cersei incest. Robert dying meant that a war would erupt too early because Varys and many others already suspected or knew his kids weren't actually his. This included Renly Robert's youngest brother who would without a doubt press his claim upon Robert's death.

Varys tries to avoid war because like Illyrio says in the dungeons.

"What good is war now? We're not ready"

Varys and Illyrio wanted to start a war, but not at the time and between the people that it did, as Dany had just became pregnant with Drogo's child. Until Daenerys gave birth to Drogo's child, the alliance between The Dothraki and Viserys would not be set in stone and they couldn't invade. They probably had a plan for which houses they wanted to set against one another to inflict as much destruction on the realm as humanly possible for Visery's landing. And the North was probably not involved in this potential war at all, but with Jon Arryn's death they had to adjust as Eddard would be coming south and entering the game. In the books Varys' 'for the realm" shtick is a sham in my personal opinion but in the show it seems D&D have made that Vary's main motto so my theory gets very confusing when it comes to the show.

Varys and Illyrio have been planning this for years, the only think they didn't anticipate back when they began plotting was you guessed it...Petyr Baelish. Varys soon enough got wind of what Baelish was trying to pull but Varys failed to stop Baelish's plan from unfolding.

With Faegon being cut from the show a lot of the earlier season decisions by Varys make no sense imo

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