The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread, Part II

[Ned Sand]

The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?"

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire."

--ACOK p701

Lately, I've been toying with the idea that Jon = the "Aegon" in this scene. The scene contains evidence that the man is Rhaegar and the child is the prince that was promised, but the only reason to conclude that the woman is Elia of Dorne is that the child's name is "Aegon". (Well, that and the absence of blue roses. )

To be sure, Rhaegar had a son with Elia named Aegon (who might have been Aegon VI had he reigned). But, if L+R=J, then Rhaegar also had a son with Lyanna Stark. Could Rhaegar have named Lyanna's son "Aegon" as well? After all, something told Rhaegar that he should become a warrior. Something led him to find Lyanna. That same something could have told him to name the child "Aegon". Surely, the child's birth name was not "Jon" -- that name would have been applied after Ned's promise to Lyanna.

If this theory is true, then Elia's son Aegon could indeed be dead at Ser Gregor's hands. Nevertheless, GRRM would have reason to equivocate as to whether "Aegon" (the child in the vision) was dead. This neatly eliminates Elia's son from consideration for future events like dragon riding, conquering the seven kingdoms, and fighting the Others while keeping Rhaegar's prince-that-was-promised eligible.

Against this theory is the imagery that suggests that the blood surrounding Lyanna's death was the blood of childbirth. That childbirth is thought to have happened at or just after the time that Ned Stark arrived at the Tower of Joy. If so, it's unlikely that Rhaegar could have been present with Lyanna and the born child at any time. Instead, he would have been at the Trident being killed by Robert.

Would some one please cite me the evidence that proves that Jon is not this "Aegon" so that I can stop worrying about it?

[Werthead]

It's possible the vision wasn't literal. For example, the vision that Daenerys has of the Red Wedding isn't literal either. However, I don't think even Rhaegar would be confusing enough as to call both his sons Aegon. More likely he'd call the second son after the next Targaryen male in the descent (in this case Aenys) or he'd give him another name (Aemon would be quite likely). So I think it is Elia in this image making the mistake about his son by her being the PWWP.

[Sarella]

Indeed, GRRM has confirmed that the woman in this scene is Elia. I agree with Werthead - Rhaegar was mistaken about the prophesy.

As far as I'm concerned, either Rhaegar knew the PTWP would be his son, but was mistaken about which son (i.e. Jon is the PTWP), or he was completely mistaken about the PTWP being his son (i.e. the PTWP is infact his sister, Dany).

[Mezeh]

As for the Tower of Joy, if they were there to guard Jon from Robert and saw that Eddard was there instead, why not just give Jon up? As you said, he's an honorable guy. Then they could have trusted Ned to keep Jon safe and then sailed off to help Willem Darry guard Viserys and Dany.

The answer of your question could be easily found in the text. When Ned remind his final conversation with his sister he remind that “fear went from her eyes†after he made his promise. So if the theory is right and the promise was about child then even Lyanna feared for his fate before Ned made a promise.

[Gil-galad]

Two possible reasons:

a) Robert is likely to want any child of Rhaegar dead, even if the mother was Lyanna (and remember that at this point Robert and Ned were estranged after a bitter quarrel about the morality of killing Targaryen children).

Targaryen loyalists, and simple opportunists of the LF type, are going to want to use Jon as a figurehead for their Game of Thrones plotting. Very likely this will lead to Jon's life being unhappy and short.

Why should the Daynes help Ned to deliver a cover story? As far as we know Ned was responsible of the death of two family members. So the only thing they would say: ok we help you. Even if they are Targ loyalists they wouldn’t do. I think especially if they are Targ loyalists they would say it to Robert. Why? At this point there were still potential for war. Dorne hasn’t resigned yet. What would be more benefit for the case that the stag and wolf(and the Tullys would be more on Neds side than Roberts and Jon Arryn wouldn’t know what to do) hang at each others throat for a targaryan bastard child. Their force would have wakened and Dorne would have had the possibility for a counter strike.

But if Jon is Asharas child than Wylla as cover story would make sense. I mean the Daynes are a honourable house and Ashara having a bastard child would be a flaw to the house, no? So the collaboration would make sense. For Wylla being really Jons mother, don’t know… I mean how could Ned meet her, father a bastard and why ended she up in the service of the Daynes?

Other thing what makes the R+L=J theory a bit fishy. Lyanna is out of a house that strongly believes in honour and Rhaegar is stated more than once to be a honourable guy. So the first thing they do after they meet each other is run of together and produce an offspring(and shame both)? People could say but Rhaegar crowned Lyanna as queen of beauty and love at the tourney at Harrenhal, but I rather believe he crowned her because Lyanna was the knight of the laughing tree.

And this one: Robb Stark has red-brown hair and Jon is stated darker as him. Arya has the same brown hair as Ned (and her hair is brown). So probably Jon has darker hair than Arya and Robb. This means he has darker hair as the Stark side. So from whom he got them? From our satin blond (with satin blond dynasty) Rhaegar? Or from someone else? But this depends if Jon has really darker hair as Robb and Arya, so I could be mistaken. But I would be a problem with Ashara too; she was blond if I remember well. But does someone know the physical description of Arthur Dayne?

And unlike Targaryens Jon has no Dragondreams. I mean in the hedge knigth most of the Targs had dragon dreams. In AFfC Ameon said Egg had dragondreams and before his death Ameon had dragondreams as well. From the other books we know that Dany had dragondreams as well and this was before she hatched the dragoneggs. So if Jon is a Targ why hasn't he dragondreams? Instead he has dreams of Winterfell.

[Shewoman]

If Wylla was actually Jon's mother, I can think of no reason for Ned not to tell Catelyn, Jon, and the National Enquirer. We keep hearing that it's not particularly shameful for a lord to father a bastard during war when he's separated from his wife (although for a lord to raise the bastard in his own home seems to be rarer), and claiming to be Jon's mother isn't going to keep Wylla from making a noble marriage because she's not of that class. Jon's presence causes trouble in the Stark family because Catelyn believes that, since Ned is shielding Jon's mom's identity, he is more loyal to this nameless woman than he is to Cat. Cat would be relieved, I think, to learn that Jon's mother was a servant. She'd consider a servant less of a threat to her own position. She's afraid it's Ashara (which she suggests--ONCE--to Ned).

And yet Wylla does seem to have claimed to be Jon's mother. If Ned has some reason or need to keep Jon's parentage a secret--so he can't tell the truth--then it would help to have someone who can be Jon's "mother" if it ever looks like anyone's getting close to the unsharable truth. This woman would have to have some loyalty to Ned or Jon or someone.

Wylla is now a Dayne retainer and may have been one before the war. Perhaps her connection to Ned is through Ashara, who was in KL during the war as one of Elia's ladies. It would be very strange if Rhaegar had not arranged for a wet nurse to be at the ToJ; I think it's likely (although not stated) that this was Wylla because Wylla is now claiming to be Jon's mother and the surrogate would need to have been involved in this mess somehow. One advantage of this is that IF Wylla is from Starfall, she may have the typical Targaryenesque coloring of the Daynes, which would be handy if R+L=Targlookalike kid.

[PetiteFlower]

Rhaegar would not have been able to name Lyanna's child, he probably never even knew that it was born safely or what happened to Lyanna.

As long as Jon's hair isn't black (because all black-haired children in this world are Robert's children ), it's probably safe to say he looks like a Stark. Different shades of brown can be present in the same family. Robb looks like his mother, auburn-haired.

As far as the famed "Stark honor" goes, it seems that Lyanna had her own interpretation of it, which was pretty strongly different then Ned's or even that generation's Brandon. Ned seems to be the most unwavering in his belief in honor, far more then any of the others. The way Lyanna was portrayed, I think she'd be more likely to follow her heart.

[thick]

A few observations

First off, that nifty little quote from ACOK finishes with Rhaegar mentioning that there must be a third and that the dragon has 3 heads. That alone makes a fairly convincing case for Jon. Maybe Elia couldn't have any more kids (I seem to remember she was frail no?) but I don't want to speculate on that. In the last raving days of Maester Aemon Targ, we hear that Rhaegar at one time thought that he was the PWWP. It's only fair to assume that someone about to be king in a society where all focus seems to be on heirs, would focus on his heir as the PWWP and not the heirs other siblings. However, what is important is that he states clearly that there must be another.

There has been the suggestion that the Wylla would make sense if Jon was Ashara's bastard because the Dayne's are an honorable house. That is some twisted sh. Everything about bastards and honor etc. etc. suggests otherwise. Nowhere have I seen the honor of a house translate into hiding the parentage of a bastard child in the books. In compromising situations

1. You could do the Hoster, i.e. get rid of the child and then bide your time and marry off your daughter when the opportunity presents itself -- in this case Jon Arryn's need for swords. Jon Arryn was aware that he was getting "soiled goods"

2. You ship the bastard off somewhere or you keep him around. Either way, the kid is taken care of -- Edric Storm, Ramsay Bolton, Lord Hornwood's bastard at the Glovers, all of Walder Freys Bastards etc. It's easier to toss the kid around or not acknowledge parentage if say the mother isn't noble (Robert and Mya Stone, Robert and ... oh what a bastard that Robert was) but a Dayne/Stark bastard...bastard or no, that's some hard diplomatic currency. Excuse my casual language on the subject matter please. This is perhaps the grayest subject matter in my little thesis here.

3. Like Shewoman said, if Wylla is Jon's mother (even if the Dayne's have somehow decided that Wylla is Jon's mother) why not spit it out and be done with?

Finally, about the dragon dreams. Tyrion dreams of dragons, and some ppl say that makes him a Targ. I think there's a difference between dreaming of riding a pet dragon and being able to look down on the world versus Dany's dream where the line between person and dragon is so thin. From that fool Aerion Brightflame's actions, I'd actually go so far as to say the Targ dragon dreams are a little like the Stark wolf dreams. Ned didn't dream of himself as a wolf to my knowledge. Heck, Rickon, Bran and Arya for the most part have wolf dreams. Jon has like 2. Robb's question to Cat about whether he should let Grey Wind sniff every man seems to suggest that he likes his wolf but especially after he thinks Bran and Rickon dead, it Robb the man and Grey Wind the wolf. Are these ppl any less because they don't warg with their wolves pretty often in their dreams?

Jjon dreams of Winterfell might be a pre-req to his dragon dreams. I suspect that the whole crypts/"you don't belong here thing" points to his finding out who he truly is. I'll get a little bit more crackpot. I suspect Jon has probably had a couple of dragon dreams. There was his whole chat with Tyrion on the way to the wall. When Tyrion says "you dream them too!" I wondered whether Jon's horrorstruck pose and fascinated "no" was "no i don't dream about dragons", "no i don't dream abput my dead relatives when they piss me off" or no to both.

[Piper]

The answer of your question could be easily found in the text. When Ned remind his final conversation with his sister he remind that “fear went from her eyes†after he made his promise. So if the theory is right and the promise was about child then even Lyanna feared for his fate before Ned made a promise.

Not sure what this has to do with what I was talking about. I was trying to refute the claim that the presence of the Kingsguard proves Jon was there. The point I was countering said, "well if they were just there to guard Lyanna, why wouldn't they just give her to Ned. Obviously, they were guarding someone else, someone else."

My quote here questions that assertaion. I was trying to say, why would the Kingsgaurd trust him with Lyanna but not Jon? It was about the motivation of Dayne, Hightower, and Whent, not of Lyanna. Not quite sure what you meant to say in regards to that.

[Mad Queen]

Other thing what makes the R+L=J theory a bit fishy. Lyanna is out of a house that strongly believes in honour and Rhaegar is stated more than once to be a honourable guy. So the first thing they do after they meet each other is run of together and produce an offspring(and shame both)?

The alternative explanation is that Rhaegar kidnapped her, which makes Rhaegar a lot less honorable.

[Sarella]

Not sure what this has to do with what I was talking about. I was trying to refute the claim that the presence of the Kingsguard proves Jon was there. The point I was countering said, "well if they were just there to guard Lyanna, why wouldn't they just give her to Ned. Obviously, they were guarding someone else, someone else."

My quote here questions that assertaion. I was trying to say, why would the Kingsgaurd trust him with Lyanna but not Jon? It was about the motivation of Dayne, Hightower, and Whent, not of Lyanna. Not quite sure what you meant to say in regards to that.

Well I'm not Mezeh, but what I took it to mean was this:

Lyanna herself feared what Ned would do until he promised to take care of Jon. If Lyanna, Ned's own sister, feared what he would do, why wouldn't the kingsguard?

[Piper]

Well I'm not Mezeh, but what I took it to mean was this:

Lyanna herself feared what Ned would do until he promised to take care of Jon. If Lyanna, Ned's own sister, feared what he would do, why wouldn't the kingsguard?

Thank you Sarella, that does make sense.

My reply would be they may both have something to fear, things that are not necessarily the same. The kingsguard fear for someone doing harm to Lyanna - we're not sure they knew she was close to death, and were guarding her because that was Rhaegar's last command.

What Lyanna fears for could be different; she knows at this point she's going to die, most likely. Could it be for Jon? It would make sense. Could it be something else? Also could be. But I don't think the mere presence of the Kingsguard is really evidence towards it being Jon, which is how we got down this path.

Again, I'm not against the whole theory (I do think it's likely), I was just arguing against one very specific point used to prove it.

[Artanaro]

Exactly. And you are ever so happy to prop yourself up as the arbiter of what does and does not constitute "group think."

Actually, "groupthink" is easy to spot. If someone doesn't substantiate an assertion, and merely latches on to what a group says, it is groupthink. Simple. It is not definitive, but based on their refusal to argue a point and rather simple advocate the conclusion, it shows "groupthink."

In the specific case you mention, Tyrion's Song had watched me annihilate your bogus (and horrifyingly ironic, given the alternate theory you attempt to prop up in its place) "probabilistic" argument as to why R+L=J can't be true

Remember the basic rule of debating online. It's impossible to make someone agree with you. I looked at your comments, and you have no understanding of probability beyond basic terminology. For example, you say any any particular series of events is by itself improbable since the number of variables needed for that entire series of events to occur is unlikely to happen. This is true, but is in total avoidance of my arguement. Not all events are relevant to whether D happens when D is only dependent on A, B, and C happening. All outside variables make the path from A, B, and C to D unique, but they are not necessary for D to happen. Only A, B, and C are. It's basicly a stochastic series.

Therein lies the distinction you have thusfar shown yourself incapable of making: expressing agreement with somebody else does not necessarily constitute "group think".

But "groupthink" is easily categorizable.

a) Person does not substantiate their beliefs with arguements or a supportable position.

Person follows the mentality of a majority.

I've asked Tyrion's Song on occasion to support his positions. He does not, aka, he's a sheep.

Artanaro

[Artanaro]

He must have been the best of his generation, but in an actual fight, I think a sober Sandor could have won, not sure about that.

Jaime speaks to the contrary. I value his opinion more.

I doubt Jaime would have admitted that anyone was better than Arthur Dayne (or himself). It's really hard to judge across several decades. Didn't you have a favorite food in your childhood, which was amazing, but when you proved it again as an adult, you realized it was not that great?

This analogy does not work. Taste cannot be quantified. Combat can. Simply comparing tournament results, melees, people defeated, and an objective analysis of speed and technique can determine if someone is better than another. The reader cannot make that distinction because of our limited data, but Jaime sure can.

But again Arthur Dayne might have been the best knight ever, but his actions didn't affect the story much. A lot of characters have achieved more with their little skills.

Can you tell me what is your sample set on important characters? How many can be considered important? I want to know. Of the ones you listed, over half were wrong.

Lyanna isn't the most important character in the story either. Both are dead and Ned was the only one who thought often about Lyanna.

Lyanna is one of the most important characters in the story from my perspective. The problem lies in the criteria of "most important character." Anyone can shift this criteria to limit whomever they want.

But Lyanna had mysterious death, we don't know for sure what she made Ned promise, but it was something that troubled Ned deeply. On the other hand, Arthur was a great knight and Jaime's role model. That's not mysterious.

It keeps coming back to changing what makes a character important. There must be state criteria. Tyrek's disappearance is mysterious, but he's been far from very important so far.

An objective method for measuring the amount of a book character's thoughts hasn't been created yet, so we'll have to agree to disagree about this one.

It's a simple solution. I even posed it to you. Skim the books where Jaime has scenes, and list where Kettleblack or Moonboy (or whomever) is mentioned, count that as a page if they're on it and Jaime mentions or thinks on them. I'll do it for Jaime, if you do it for the characters you listed. You are wrong in your earlier assertion, but I'm not going to waste my time on someone who won't do her part. Don't make an assertion if you won't back it up.

Artanaro

[Mezeh]

Not sure what this has to do with what I was talking about. I was trying to refute the claim that the presence of the Kingsguard proves Jon was there. The point I was countering said, "well if they were just there to guard Lyanna, why wouldn't they just give her to Ned. Obviously, they were guarding someone else, someone else."

My quote here questions that assertaion. I was trying to say, why would the Kingsgaurd trust him with Lyanna but not Jon? It was about the motivation of Dayne, Hightower, and Whent, not of Lyanna. Not quite sure what you meant to say in regards to that.

The same reason that Tywin said that there was no need to kill Elia only her children. She was no danger to anyone and her brother most probably was no danger to her and the Kingsguards must know it. Her child is completely another story.

[Mezeh]

Thank you Sarella, that does make sense.

Yes, thanks it was exactly what I meant.

My reply would be they may both have something to fear, things that are not necessarily the same. The kingsguard fear for someone doing harm to Lyanna - we're not sure they knew she was close to death, and were guarding her because that was Rhaegar's last command.

Forgive me but it would be illogical to fear that brother would harm his sister besides Ned had no apparent reason to do so. As for Rhaegar’s command – he surely was the one who ordered Kingsgurd to guard Lyanna, but he was already dead and all other Kingsguard out of duty. Whatever the orders their prime goal was to guard royal family so Ned tried to persuade them to go after their main duty by telling them about remaining Targs and let him have his sister. If she was just Rhaegar’s lover then she wasn’t a member of the royal family. Yet they refused. Why?

What Lyanna fears for could be different; she knows at this point she's going to die, most likely. Could it be for Jon? It would make sense. Could it be something else? Also could be. But I don't think the mere presence of the Kingsguard is really evidence towards it being Jon, which is how we got down this path.

Something else? What? About what could a woman who knows that she is going to die worry so much? And don’t forget that she feared until Ned gave his promise so she wasn’t sure that he won’t refuse. So it was quite a thing if she feared that her brother could refuse her last wish.

If she asked about Rhaegar’s chilled everything make cense. Mother who knew that she is going to die surely would worry about her child. And she asked Ned for a thing that would be very close to treason. So his loyalty to his friend and his King against his love for his sister. She had a reason to fear indeed.

Could it be something else? Perhaps but I have nothing else in the mind that could fit.

[Shewoman]

We're told that Jon looks like Arya, who has the Stark look (Sansa looks like a Tully), so Jon must look like a Stark. In Hedge Knight one of Egg's full-blood Targaryen brothers doesn't have the distinctive Targ coloring--that "the seed is strong" line is about Robert's seed.

We don't know how it happend that Rhaegar and Lyanna wound up together. As far as I know, the first indication of it was when Rhaegar made her Queen of Love and Beauty at Harrenhal when his own wife was there. That may have been the first time they even saw each other; I don't get the impression that the Starks travelled that much.

It's been suggested that Aerys raped Lyanna (certainly what we learned in AFFC about his sexual proclivities with his wife make that behavior possible for Aerys) and that Rhaegar took her and hid her to protect her from his father. There's no evidence for this theory and I'm not advocating it; I mention it just because it would explain how honorable Rhaegar could have done this. If Lyanna's like Arya, I wouldn't think she was above running away from home. And, of course, there may be less-than-honorable info about Rhaegar we just haven't heard yet. Ned and Jorah Mormont both seem to think well of him, but I think everyone else we've heard praise him had some sort of connection to the Targs.

I doubt that Lyanna was worried that Ned would harm her child. I think she was worried about what would happen to her child if she died without getting someone to promise to look out for him. That's why she's relieved when Ned makes the promise; she's not leaving a baby defenseless.

Rhaegar must have died before she gave birth, since she seems to have done so quite recently when Ned gets there and Rhaegar died before the sack of KL.

[Piper]

Yes, thanks it was exactly what I meant.

Forgive me but it would be illogical to fear that brother would harm his sister besides Ned had no apparent reason to do so. As for Rhaegar’s command – he surely was the one who ordered Kingsgurd to guard Lyanna, but he was already dead and all other Kingsguard out of duty. Whatever the orders their prime goal was to guard royal family so Ned tried to persuade them to go after their main duty by telling them about remaining Targs and let him have his sister. If she was just Rhaegar’s lover then she wasn’t a member of the royal family. Yet they refused. Why?

"I came down to Storm's End to lift the seige," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them."

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne.

"Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him."

"Ser Willem is a good man and true," said Ser Oswell.

"But not of a Kingsguard," Ser Gerold pointed out. "The Kingsguard to not flee."

"Then or not," said Ser Arthur. He donned his help

They do not yield; they do not bend the knee. Period. I don't think it would have mattered if Rhaegar had said "don't let Robert or anyone who rode with him get close to Lyanna" or "don't let Robert or anyone who rode with him get to that window on the second floor, it's a bit dusty and I won't be embarrassed by my bad housekeeping skills." These guys weren't gonna give up, no matter who they're guarding or where Viserys is. If Rhaegar said guard Lyanna, they were gonna do it, no matter if it was just her, no matter if her brother came to pick her up. I've already mentioned another time when the Kingsguard was away from the entire royal family, it can happen if they are so ordered.

Something else? What? About what could a woman who knows that she is going to die worry so much? And don’t forget that she feared until Ned gave his promise so she wasn’t sure that he won’t refuse. So it was quite a thing if she feared that her brother could refuse her last wish.

If she asked about Rhaegar’s chilled everything make cense. Mother who knew that she is going to die surely would worry about her child. And she asked Ned for a thing that would be very close to treason. So his loyalty to his friend and his King against his love for his sister. She had a reason to fear indeed.

Could it be something else? Perhaps but I have nothing else in the mind that could fit.

Lyanna had a child, yes, but Rhaegar need not be the father for Lyanna to be scared for it's life. She knew Robert better than your or I, she might have thought he would have killed any bastard she bore. Or perhaps the real father's identity would have put Jon in danger as well. Plenty of crackpot theories out there that makes sense on this level.

I'll admit Rhaegar being the father makes plenty of sense, but I don't think you can just say from 1) she was afraid of/for something/one, and 2) the Kingsguard were guarding something/one, that 3) the same motivation carried for both.

[thick]

Thank you Shewoman for bringing another thought I've had for a long time back to me.

Jon Looks like Arya. Ned tells Arya she looks like Lyanna. Jon looks like Lyanna. However, Jon has really dark eyes.

On the whole MadQueen/Gil-galard issue of whether Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna because Rhaegar is supposedly really honorable and Lyana comes from a family that is honorable. I think it's been made pretty clear thoughout the books that the characters pursue follies in the name of love or however Robb puts it to his mother in ASOS. That is one of the more clear thematic elements throughout the series.

[Ned Sand]

Indeed, GRRM has confirmed that the woman in this scene is Elia. I agree with Werthead - Rhaegar was mistaken about the prophesy.

Hey. Thanks, BTW. Now I can focus my attention on finding Aegon VI.