The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread, Part II

[Mezeh]

Yes, but I don't think he's going to step forward and say anything any time soon

What bothers me about a wedding at Harrenhal is still that Ned thinks of Jon as a bastard. If the wedding occurred at Harrenhal, wouldn't Howland or Ned know about it? I would have thought one or both of them would have been with Lyanna when Rhaegar found her. Or wouldn't Lyanna have told Benjen when they were back at Winterfell? I mean, knowing the kind of person she was, I doubt she could have kept completely quiet that she'd just married a young hot prince.

How could they possibly know? Neither of them had “little birds†to inform them and neither apparently was aware about Rhaegar and Lyanna plans to run away. Marriage in the godswood that usually was an empty place would take only a few minutes on the way out so if they missed the whole escape they would miss a marriage as well.

[Mezeh]

If Lyanna and Rhaegar married and wanted it kept secret, I think they'd've done it in King's Landing with someone they trusted totally marrying them and the only witnesses being trustworthy as well. Why would they marry at Harrenhal?

Why wait? And what for? Rhaegar already had both of his most trusted friends in Harenhall and that was everything that he needed. The marriage would be a great scandal either way but if it was revealed afterwards and already consummated by the time it would be irreversible and all would have no other chance but to accept it. Marriage would be a far less offence for House Stark as well. Greater offence for Martells but they would do nothing about it because Rhaegar was still married to Elia and her son was still his heir. Besides Lyanna reputation would be hurt much less if it would become known that she married first and already after that run away. And her reputation was important if Rhaegar wanted to have children by her.

So marriage in Harenhall before the escape looks more likely to me then every other variant.

[SFDanny]

Mezeh, the problem with a marriage at Harrenhal isn't that it is impossible, but rather you have nothing that indicates it happened. Lyanna doesn't go with Rhaegar from Harrenhal, she is kidnapped or elopes later on. Why does she wait to go with her husband if she has already married him? The only thing I can think of is Brandon's presence at Harrenhal, but that also points to a later marriage. In short, it's not enough to say it could have happened, if you want people to accept it, you need to show something that points to the fact it did happen.

I also think your last post underestimates the dangers Lyanna faced from Aerys and the Martells. If Lyanna is really the Knight of the Laughing Tree, she has been declared an enemy by Aerys. The Martells have every reason to oppose this marriage and even greater reasons to try to stop Lyanna from giving birth to a rival to the throne. Up until the events of the Sack of Kings Landing, the Dornishmen and King Aerys are a greater threat to Lyanna than Robert or any of the rebels. Can anyone rule out a plot to kill Lyanna from either of the two? I don't think so.

[SFDanny]

SFDanny, that doesn't answer the basic question: He has her and so far nobody knows. Wonderful. How does he propose to keep her?

I'm not sure I understand, TSS. Once Lyanna elopes or is kidnapped it is not a secret who she is with (obviously Brandon knows right away;) it is a secret where she is (she is not at King's Landing when Brandon rides there.) How does Rhaegar plan to pull this off? He plans to keep her location a secret from his father, his other wife, the Martells, the Baratheons, the Starks, and the rest of the world. At least a secret until a child is born. Then Lyanna has status, assuming a marriage, as the mother of an heir to the throne that helps Rhaegar demand her acceptance. It doesn't eliminate dangers to Lyanna and her child, but it does force an acceptance of his child and marriage. Of course, events at the Trident and at King's Landing make all of Rhaegar's plans irrelevant.

[Mezeh]

2 SFDanny

I agree that nothing indicated that marriage happened in Harenhall. I only state that if it happened then Harenhall after tourney and before the escape looks like the most likely place and time. By logic nothing else.

Why marry in Harenhall? I stated reasons above.

Why to escape after it? You answered the question yourself. Lyanna was in danger in Harenhall besides marriage needs consummation and for that they needed more private and safe place like the Tower of Joy. The best prove of consummation would be pregnancy that would also mad Lyanna much safer. Attack on her then would be attack on royal family and Aerys while mad was never mad enough to harm his grandchildren or their mother.

So it seems logical to me. Marry Lyanna before escaping so there would be proof that her children were conceived in marriage and hiding for a while was necessary for her safety and also needed to make marriage more easily accepted.

[Rhaegon Targaryen]

Darkstar is not Aegon. This is an old and disproven argument. He is too old. And of the night.

[Mezeh]

Darkstar is not Aegon. This is an old and disproven argument. He is too old. And of the night.

Actually I see no reason even to suspect him. His eyes? But it was stated that violet eyes are not so rare in Dorne and alone do not mean any connection with Targaryens. And Daynes do have violet eyes.

[HarryStark]

Darkstar is not Aegon. This is an old and disproven argument. He is too old. And of the night.

Well, his age isn't actually stated anywhere in AFFC - I checked. While it's odd that the 23-year-old Aryanne would keep a 17(ish?)-year-old around, I wouldn't say it's beyond the realms of possibility.

I don't see why there'a sl this speculation about whether R+L were be married at all, let alone when it happened. Or for that matter that everyone would be all worked up about it (and Elia/her family in particular; I accept that Robert may've been upset, but still...)

What I think is safe to presume is:

- Rhaegar wanted another child / needed one to fulfil a prophecy involving "a song of ice and fire" (from Dany's vision in the House of the Undying)

- The fact patterns make it possible for him to have had a child with Lyanna at the ToJ (i.e., I'm assuming that R+L=? is true, without it being relevant for the present purposes whether the child ended up being Jon or the Darkstar or anyone else)

- Elia was (IIRC) not of a stature to bear children all that well (I believe I got that from one of Catelyn's PoVs sometime..?).

Why assume from these facts that:

- the child had to be legitimate? all that was needed was that there WAS a child, as far as we know; who knows what this whole "song of ice and fire" prophecy is actually all about?!?

- that Elia wasn't actually "filled in" on the plan? after all, isn't it strange how we never learn what her reaction to Lyanna being crowned at the Tourney was?

As for Varys potentially swapping Aegon, I suppose you could be right Mezeh. Though my personal interpretation of the "Aegon the Darkstar" theory always involved the Daynes and Rhaegar swapping the babies long before the sack (and thus leading to Ashara's death later when she learned about the fate of her son)... But since we have the main supporter of the theory among us, I'll leave it up to him to settle this point, I think!

Edit: yeah, I did mean Varys, sorry...

[The Wolf Maid]

Why assume from these facts that:

- the child had to be legitimate? all that was needed was that there WAS a child, as far as we know; who knows what this whole "song of ice and fire" prophecy is actually all about?!?

- that Elia wasn't actually "filled in" on the plan? after all, isn't it strange how we never learn what her reaction to Lyanna being crowned at the Tourney was?

For the legitimacy, I think Rhaegar would have preferred his child to have the Targaryen surname?

Elia...hm, IIRC, it seems Dorne was quite pissed on how Elia was treated.

[Hedge Knight]

Well, his age isn't actually stated anywhere in AFFC - I checked. While it's odd that the 23-year-old Aryanne would keep a 17(ish?)-year-old around, I wouldn't say it's beyond the realms of possibility.

I don't see why there'a sl this speculation about whether R+L were be married at all, let alone when it happened. Or for that matter that everyone would be all worked up about it (and Elia/her family in particular; I accept that Robert may've been upset, but still...)

As for Viserys potentially swapping Aegon, I suppose you could be right Mezeh. Though my personal interpretation of the "Aegon the Darkstar" theory always involved the Daynes and Rhaegar swapping the babies long before the sack (and thus leading to Ashara's death later when she learned about the fate of her son)... But since we have the main supporter of the theory among us, I'll leave it up to him to settle this point, I think!

I am with you on Aegon being Darkstar. I do think Aegon is still alive and Darkstar would make a very suitable Aegon. He has the right Targaryen features (GRRM said that Aegon looks more like a Targ and Rhaenys more Dornish)....He has silver hair with a dark streak down the middle; he is "very angry." And Darkstar tries to kill Mircella and start a war with the Lannnisters.

I think you mean Varys switching the babies, not Viscerys. Could very well be. Why not. VArys always claims he is for the realm.

[SFDanny]

Darkstar is not Aegon. This is an old and disproven argument. He is too old. And of the night.

At the risk of taking this thread on a tangent that has nothing to do with the topic at hand, let me raise these points:

(1) Just how old is this argument? If there is an earlier round on this question, before I raised it, I'd love to see the discussion. Can you point it out for me?

(2) As to Ser Gerold's age, as HarryStark has pointed out, there is nothing in the text that explicitly points to his age. The argument that says he is too old relies on the "trend" of Arianne's attractions. A trend of two. She is attracted, as a young girl, to her dashing uncle, and she has an affair with a man who is likely 5 to 7 years older than she (Ser Arys Oakheart.) The logic is supposed to be this means she can't be attracted to a younger man (Aegon would be 18 to 19 years old.) I ask you is that the experience of your life? Do you find that these minor age differences could stop you from finding someone attractive? I think there is something else going on here. The assumption is too often that men can be attracted to younger women, but when women are attracted to younger men a line is crossed. It is the only explanation I can come up with for the vehemence in the argument that Ser Gerold MUST be older than Arianne.

(3) What does the catch phrase "of the night" have to do with anything? Is it just your way of making fun of the character and not dealing with the argument?

(4) HarryStark, my take on Varys role in a possible baby switch is that, if he had, we would have had a clue to that involvement in one of Ned's POV chapters in A Game of Thrones. Ned views him with distrust, but there isn't a hint of old animosities or old shared conspiracies in Ned's thoughts towards the Spider. Rather, what we have is a general distaste from Ned towards the kind of work Varys does and methods he uses. What we have is no indication that Varys was involved in a secret that should be kept to the barest minimum if it has any chance of success. I have a better chance of believing that Varys discovered the scheme, but he had no role in carrying it out.

My own take on this corollary to the "Aegon the Darkstar" idea is that it is most likely a scheme hatched between Elia and Ashara with the endorsement of Rhaegar. The foreshadowing of the swapping of Gilly's child and the splitting up of Rickon and Bran, just lends credence to the idea that this could have happened. Now, if Ashara is involved, and there really isn't a way she could not be involved, it would have to take place early in the war. Ashara leaves the court and travels back to Starfall and isn't around King's Landing for the Sack.

Having said that, I want to again say I think the most likely scenario is that Aegon is dead. I think Martin is probably dropping red herrings all over the place to have us think it is possible for Aegon to be alive for his little version of "Anastasia."

[the silent speaker]

How does Rhaegar plan to pull this off? He plans to keep her location a secret from his father, his other wife, the Martells, the Baratheons, the Starks, and the rest of the world. At least a secret until a child is born. Then Lyanna has status, assuming a marriage, as the mother of an heir to the throne that helps Rhaegar demand her acceptance.

And so he's just going to keep her isolated from her entire family for maybe the rest of her life. While simultaneously avoiding them himself, never mind that they're one of the seven most important noble families in the land. Instead of, oh I don't know, telling them that their daughter is safe and sound and happy and with him of her own free will, and relying on her status as the newlywed wife of the crown prince to demand acceptance. After all, the wedding was already consummated by then; it can't be set aside, so grumble all they like there is still a fait accompli they have no choice but to put up with, and it's not like the Starks would have a grievance for the free decision of one of their own. Some loving husband.

[SFDanny]

And so he's just going to keep her isolated from her entire family for maybe the rest of her life. While simultaneously avoiding them himself, never mind that they're one of the seven most important noble families in the land. Instead of, oh I don't know, telling them that their daughter is safe and sound and happy and with him of her own free will, and relying on her status as the newlywed wife of the crown prince to demand acceptance. After all, the wedding was already consummated by then; it can't be set aside, so grumble all they like there is still a fait accompli they have no choice but to put up with, and it's not like the Starks would have a grievance for the free decision of one of their own. Some loving husband.

Not even close to what I said, TSS. Did you want to have a discussion with me or with some imaginary person?

Last I knew, loving husbands don't like to get their newlywed wives killed. So secrecy might be in order. At least if my options were secrecy or having my father the king try to do away with my bride or my first wife's in-laws try to poison her morning tea, I think I'll choose secrecy. However, regardless of what I would do, it is clear Rhaegar chose secrecy. That's part of the established backstory. I'm only trying to point to the obvious reasons why he may have chosen the way he did.

[the silent speaker]

But there was no danger to Lyanna. None at all. Okay, the Nymeros Martells will need to be reassured that he's not setting Elia aside, but you really think Aerys would have killed Lyanna for marrying his son? Honestly, is there any evidence he even noticed before Brandon and Rickard Stark came banging on the door?

If Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar, there would be a scandal, but no one would be under any threat. There is a threat only if Lyanna was abducted by Rhaegar, or people think she was. Therefore, the best way to keep her safe is to make certain sure that everyone knew what had happened. Hiding her increases the threat, not decreases, since she can't possibly be hidden forever. That applies to Robert, it applies double to the Martells, and it applies tenfold to the Starks.

[Shewoman]

"As for Viserys potentially swapping Aegon, I suppose you could be right Mezeh. "

Harry Stark

VISERYS swapped the babies? How old was he at this point? Isn't he still in his teens or early twenties when he dies 14 years later? Where did this come from?

I don't see much point in Rhaegar and Lyanna getting married at Harrenhal and not telling anyone. If Aerys is angry at the Knight of the Laughing Tree, they 1) don't have to tell him that was Lyanna, and 2) if they do and he's still angry, she's the wife of his heir. It's hard to believe that they wouldn't notify her family, at least.

I also think we'd've gotten some hint of there being more to Harrenhal than we know.

[Sarella]

SFDanny, that doesn't answer the basic question: He has her and so far nobody knows. Wonderful. How does he propose to keep her?

Jaime remembers Rhaegar just before he rode to The Trident. Rhaegar says he intends for things to be different when he returns, implying that he is going to deal with Aerys in some way. Most likely, Rhaegar was going to declare Aerys unfit to rule by reason of insanity. Then Rhaegar would be king, and could reveal his mistress/second wife safely.

This would be after quashing Robert's rebellion (and likely killing Robert in the process), so there wouldn't be much opposition to his affair/marriage with Lyanna left.

[Sarella]

But there was no danger to Lyanna. None at all. Okay, the Nymeros Martells will need to be reassured that he's not setting Elia aside, but you really think Aerys would have killed Lyanna for marrying his son? Honestly, is there any evidence he even noticed before Brandon and Rickard Stark came banging on the door?

Aerys was mad and unpredictable. He would be pissed if Rhaegar took a mistress or second wife, after all the trouble Aerys went to to find Elia. A lot of effort was put into finding a wife for Rhaegar. Hell, Lord and Lady Baratheon died because of it.

Now, upon finding Rhaegar has taken a mistress/wife, Aerys could be logical and seek to keep Lyanna safe, because killing her would likely lead to a rebellion (lead by Robert and the Starks). But he wasn't logical. He was mad. I'm not saying Aerys would have killed Lyanna. All I am saying is that Rhaegar didn't know what Aerys would do, and didn't want to risk it.

If Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar, there would be a scandal, but no one would be under any threat. There is a threat only if Lyanna was abducted by Rhaegar, or people think she was. Therefore, the best way to keep her safe is to make certain sure that everyone knew what had happened. Hiding her increases the threat, not decreases, since she can't possibly be hidden forever. That applies to Robert, it applies double to the Martells, and it applies tenfold to the Starks.

I agree. It would be better that everyone know about it. Except Aerys. And therin lay Rhaegar's dilemma - he couldn't go public without filling Aerys in on it too. I still think it would have been better to go public anyway and risk Aerys wrath, but Rhaegar obviously didn't think that.

[Sarella]

How could they possibly know? Neither of them had “little birds†to inform them and neither apparently was aware about Rhaegar and Lyanna plans to run away. Marriage in the godswood that usually was an empty place would take only a few minutes on the way out so if they missed the whole escape they would miss a marriage as well.

Assuming (1) there was a wedding, (2) it happened at the tournament at Harrenhal when Rhaegar went hunting for tKotLT and found her, and (3) neither Howland and Ned know about it, we come to the conclusion that Lyanna must have been hiding ALONE when Rhaegar found her.

I find it hard to believe that Howland and/or Ned would have let her run away and hide BY HERSELF. I think one or both of them would have gone with her.

That is why I find it hard to believe that there was a wedding at Harrenhal. It would require that Lyanna be away from both Howland and Ned, when we know that all three were in close contact in the part of the story that we have heard.

[The Wolf Maid]

I keep on thinking about Arya whenever people discuss what Lyanna was like. I think Lyanna, was a bit like her. I think she would have been bold enough to go by herself, without her brothers.

[Guest Other-in-law]

and (3) neither Howland and Ned know about it, we come to the conclusion that Lyanna must have been hiding ALONE when Rhaegar found her.

I find it hard to believe that Howland and/or Ned would have let her run away and hide BY HERSELF. I think one or both of them would have gone with her.

I could see Howland finding out or even being a witness at the wedding, and then not getting a chance to tell her brothers because they already left (and he would be returning on foot, carrying his boat, so he'd have a hard time catching up) or Lyanna swearing him to secrecy about it (so they wouldn't interfere). If she was the KotLT, he might feel indebted to her and easier to sway.

We really are still very much in the dark about who went where immediately after Harrenhal. We have an idea of Brandon's movements, and some of Ned's, but not much else, afaict.