Doran didn't send Quentyn to Meereen

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Alright, so I wrote this, and then I refined my thoughts into this, and then I thought I'd give it its own thread here. Thanks @YOVMO for prodding my thoughts in the right direction. The first link has all the details and quotes and stuff.

I am quite confident that Doran must have intended Quentyn to find Daenerys in the Free Cities, probably Volantis. The conclusions I've drawn from that, and the connections to my tinfoily speculations, are naturally less solid. But I do think I'm on to something. Anyway, copy-pasted from the second link:

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299 AC

• Aug. 22 - Dany leaves Qarth
• Oct. 02 - Dany reaches Astapor
• Oct. 30 - frees the slaves at Yunkai

This is the very earliest point at which news could start travelling that she was going to Meereen

• Dec. 01 - Dany's taken Meereen and decides to stay

300 AC

• Jan. 16 - Doran leaves the Water Gardens

Note that Areo Hotah doesn't think about Quentyn once - either he didn't know they'd met, or it was long enough ago that it's not on his mind

• Jan. 26 - Australia Day, but also the first garbled bits of news about Dany in Meereen have reached Oldtown (and not, interestingly, the news of Tywin's death)
• Feb. 02 - Tyrion leaves Pentos with Illyrio

Note that Illyrio, who's probably better informed that anyone, doesn't know Dany is staying in Meereen

• Feb. 05 - Arianne says her brother has already set sail
• Feb. 07 - Quentyn arrives in Volantis
• Feb. 08 - Garin tells Arianne the latest gossip from the Planky Town, mentioning Astapor but not Meereen
• Feb. 27 - Quentyn's been in Volantis for twenty days; we learn that they came via Lys, where they were delayed four days due to illness; they know Dany's in Meereen
• Mar. 22 - news reaches King's Landing of a slave revolt in Meereen, but apparently they don't know that Dany has declared herself Queen there.

So once we start accounting for the travel times, there's no way Quentyn or Doran could have known, when they had their little chat at the Water Gardens, that Dany would be staying put in Meereen. They probably didn't even know that she'd gone to Meereen, and they might not have known that she'd gone to Slaver's Bay at all.

But they had to at least know that she'd been to Qarth, because how else would they know that she was even alive? They probably figured she'd turn up in one of the Free Cities, most likely Volantis. This explains why they took Maester Kedry: he's an expert in the nine Free Cities, and speaks all of their languages. (His Ghiscari language skills sound like an afterthought.) And this also explains why Quentyn had such a small bodyguard: the Free Cities are safe enough for a merchant and his men to visit. It's always seemed odd that Doran would send his son into a warzone with only four men to protect him; well, what if he didn't send him to a warzone at all?

Quentyn exhibits a determination to see his quest through, against all his instincts and judgment. If he found out that Daenerys wasn't coming to Volantis as expected, why wouldn't he try to press on to Meereen? It's not as risky as stealing a dragon, is it?

This also explains why GRRM has Quentyn's story start in Volantis, after he's decided to go to Meereen: we don't see anything that would clue us in to the fact that Meereen wasn't his original destination, because if we knew that was the case, then we might also figure out...

(put on your tinfoil hats, folks!)

...that Quentyn's quest was never intended to succeed!

Preston Jacobs has done yeoman's work explaining how crappy and underwhelming and suspicious that marriage pact is, and I won't rehash his argument here. But if you accept that the marriage pact was a dud (or are at least willing to entertain the possibility), then the question arises why, in the name of all that is holy, did Doran risk his son's life on a wild goose chase? Is Doran stupid? No. Incautious? Far from it. Does he not care about his family, or about the other innocents he sent along with Quentyn? Of course he cares - that's his defining attribute!

So what's going on?

Well, it's my wild theory that Quentyn is not being fostered by the Yronwoods, but rather held hostage by them; that this arrangement was put together by Jon Arryn in 284 AC to stop the burgeoning Dornish rebellion; and that, for some reason, this arrangement was kept secret. Possibly there's a connection with whatever Jon Arryn meant by "the seed is strong"; either way, now that Jon Arryn's dead, and the Lannisters apparently still consider them allies, it seems apparent that whatever secrets Jon Arryn had died with him, and thus, after all these years, the Dornish are finally free to start enacting their terrible plans for revenge.

Now, I'll admit that that's a load of nonsense, totally unsupported by the text. (Update: I think even less of that tinfoil now, see here.) But it does jibe rather well with the observations detailed above. Doran is plainly about to rebel against the Iron Throne, and he knows full well what Tywin Lannister does to the children of those who defy him. His own daughter and one of his sons are safely under his own care, but his other son is held hostage by his most dangerous local rival. What to do?

By sending Quentyn with an Yronwood escort on a doomed-to-fail diplomatic mission to Daenerys Targaryen, he achieves mutiple goals with one smooth stroke, and, no matter how things play out, they work out well for Doran.

Best case scenario:

• his son becomes king
• he gets three dragons with which to destory House Lannister

Likeliest scenario:

• He gets Quentyn away from war-torn Westeros to the relative safety of the Free Cities
• He makes the Yronwoods think they're a trusted part of his team
• He distracts the Yronwoods from whatever he's really doing
• He signals to Daenerys Targaryen that he's on her side without having to make too firm a commitment
• He has an excuse not to side with her, because she spurned his son

Worst-case scenario:

• They get caught, and Doran pins as much blame as he can on the Yronwoods

Of course, he failed to fully appreciate just how much worse the worst-case scenario could get. Or, as Doran himself puts it:

We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry.

Bummer.

For much more detail, click here. For more on my stupid Dorne theory, click here. For more Preston Jacobs click here, and a hot spicy shoutout to whoever put together this magnificent ASOIAF timeline. Thanks, guys.

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Any thoughts?

[Bonkers]

Personally, I believe Preston Jacobs theory that Doran never wanted Q to succeed...he provided no help (of which he has plenty of) during their travels and the agreement is worthless, and not signed by a Lord - whom cannot make marriage pacts.  Youtube Deeper Dorne series

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

20 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

Personally, I believe Preston Jacobs theory that Doran never wanted Q to succeed...he provided no help (of which he has plenty of) during their travels and the agreement is worthless, and not signed by a Lord - whom cannot make marriage pacts.  Youtube Deeper Dorne series

...there's a link to that theory in the post.

[Bonkers]

12 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

...there's a link to that theory in the post.

Ah. missed it.  But I agree that it is a complete mess lol!

 

[YOVMO]

8 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

...there's a link to that theory in the post.

Excellent work on this post. Truly. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

2 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Excellent work on this post. Truly. 

Thank'ee kindly

[Lord Vance II]

I've always seen it as Doran tossing a Hail Mary on the off chance it works, because he doesn't have much to work with. 

Doran is trying to be a player but doesn't have many pieces. His army is decent but not strong enough to fight the crown. So he's willing to risk his son's life to create a sudden turn of fortune for his house, which he sees as downtrodden and not in their rightful place. 

But, of course, he cant risk being revealed, so he sends minimal support. 

I don't really see the Yronwood angle, but who knows. Dorne is weird. 

[devilish]

On 25/09/2016 at 8:32 AM, Bonkers said:

Personally, I believe Preston Jacobs theory that Doran never wanted Q to succeed...he provided no help (of which he has plenty of) during their travels and the agreement is worthless, and not signed by a Lord - whom cannot make marriage pacts.  Youtube Deeper Dorne series

Fathers tend to send their own son to dangerous missions in the other side of the world while hoping them to fail. 

[The Ice Wolf of Loki]

2 hours ago, devilish said:

Fathers tend to send their own son to dangerous missions in the other side of the world while hoping them to fail. 

Arrianne is his heir and he still has Trystane as backup. You're correct though I highly doubt Doran intended for Quentyn to fail, Doran's problem may lie in overestimating his sons abilities.

[Michael Mertyns]

While I'm disinclined to agree about Quentyn being set up to fail, I think you are spot on as to his original destination. If Doran doesn't really care about the success of the pact, why does he reveal it to Arianne as the centerpiece of his plan for Dorne to get the revenge its too weak to complete on its own?

[devilish]

1 hour ago, The Ice Wolf of Loki said:

Arrianne is his heir and he still has Trystane as backup. You're correct though I highly doubt Doran intended for Quentyn to fail, Doran's problem may lie in overestimating his sons abilities.

I sympathise alot with Doran. Robert's rebellion caused his sister's death and the annihilation of most of his army which makes Dorne a rather peripheral region in the great scheme of things. Doran doesn’t possess the army needed to conquer KL by itself and he also know that justice won’t be achieved if he decided to side either with the Baratheon brothers or Robb Stark. Robb simply doesn’t care about KL as too far away to come to the rescue if Dorne is in trouble. The Baratheon brothers would probably have the incest siblings heads on the stake but they wouldn’t dare going too tough against Tywin or his children because they know that money rules, the crown is heavily in debt and no one knows how to administer to rich Westerlands than Tywin and his brood.

Under such circumstances they need someone who hates the Lannisters so much that they wouldn’t mind going against Tywin and his ilk. The Targs offer an e-way to that. Aegon’s mother and sister were brutally killed by Gregor while Danny’s father was backstabbed by Jaime. I think that Doran’s plan was to stay neutral while everyone is losing soldiers to then seal a deal with Aegon or Danny or both. Aegon can marry Arianne and rule Dorne at her side (possibly with the new Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, Connington at his side). Danny would become queen with Trystane as her husband. Dorne would take its revenge and would rise in this new era stronger than ever before. 
 

Unfortunately Doran being Doran was far too cautious which lead to his son going with the bare minimum. If he was caught doing anything shifty, no one could attribute anything back to Dorne. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

2 hours ago, Michael Mertyns said:

While I'm disinclined to agree about Quentyn being set up to fail, I think you are spot on as to his original destination. If Doran doesn't really care about the success of the pact, why does he reveal it to Arianne as the centerpiece of his plan for Dorne to get the revenge its too weak to complete on its own?

Now that I can't explain. Maybe... um... maybe...

I dunno

Maybe it's got something to do with when he told her. Clearly he didn't trust her, or perhaps he just wanted to use his children as little as possible in his scheming in case it backfired, to minimise the chance that they'd be punished. (Quentyn wouldn't enter into this consideration if he was already being held hostage for Doran's good behaviour.) Perhaps he only tells Arianne because (a) he realises that by not confiding in her, he'd driven her to her own drastic plans, and (b) he's heard some unfavourable news from the east that makes him worry about Quentyn somehow.

(We know from Arianne's TWOW chapters that

Spoiler

Doran is worried about Quentyn.)

It's possible that Doran has heard Daenerys is staying in Meereen and has abolished the slave trade there, which means war, and a difficult passage: perhaps he can see the dangers Quentyn will be facing. I've gone through the timeline to try and find stuff.

• 30th Jan - Kingsmoot
• 8th Feb - Arianne arrested
• 22nd March - news reaches King's Landing that Spotted Sylva has been betrothed, and of a slave revolt in Meereen
• 5th April - Sam meets Xhondo Dhoru in Braavos
• 30th April - attack on the Shield Islands
• 3rd May - Fire and Blood speech
• 21st May - Sam in Oldtown
• 17th June - ADWD Epilogue

Now, there's definitely a very wide margin for error on that third-last date, because it's based on The Princess in the Tower; that chapter lasts for weeks, even months, but it's impossible to know for sure because Arianne loses track of time. Anyway, here are some quotes:

Quote

"We have these tales coming from the east as well. A second Targaryen, and one whose blood no man can question. Daenerys Stormborn."
"As mad as her father," declared Lord Mace Tyrell.
That would be the same father that Highgarden and House Tyrell supported to the bitter end and well beyond. "Mad she may be," Ser Kevan said, "but with so much smoke drifting west, surely there must be some fire burning in the east."
 Grand Maester Pycelle bobbed his head. "Dragons. These same stories have reached Oldtown. Too many to discount. A silver-haired queen with three dragons."
"At the far end of the world," said Mace Tyrell. "Queen of Slaver's Bay, aye. She is welcome to it."
"On that we can agree," Ser Kevan said, "but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever."

-- A Dance with Dragons, Epilogue

This is definitely after Doran clues Arianne in - in fact, she's already on her way to meet Aegon at this point - I include it as the first time someone in Westeros unambiguously says that Dany is Queen of Meereen, i.e. that she's staying there. Note that they're still not totally 100% sure it's her: they're just piecing this information together from "smoke" and "stories" - stories that they didn't know to be listening out for.

Quote

"What will you do?" asked Alleras, the Sphinx.
"Get myself to Slaver's Bay, in Aemon's place."

-- A Feast for Crows, Samwell V

Marwyn expects to find Dany in Meereen.

Quote

"Aemon said the Citadel must send her a maester at once, to bring her home to Westeros before it is too late."

-- A Feast for Crows, Samwell V

Sam first hears about Dany when he's in Braavos, from someone who saw her in Qarth; I think they sail straight to Oldtown without stopping, so if Aemon thinks Dany's in Meereen, that means it was already common knowledge when Sam was in Braavos (and note that Dorne is closer than Braavos, and so should hear the gossip first). If anybody can find a quote that proves that they knew Dany was in Meereen, I'd love to see it. I couldn't find one.

Quote

"...They say she is the fairest woman in the world. Her hair is silver-gold, and her eyes are amethysts . . . but you need not take my word for it, brother. Go to Slaver's Bay, behold her beauty, and bring her back to me."

-- A Feast for Crows, The Reaver

At the Shield Islands, the Ironborn definitely think she's in Meereen...

Quote

 Asha laughed aloud. "...There are no more dragons."
"Again, girl, you are wrong. There are three, and I know where to find them."

-- A Feast for Crows, The Drowned Man

...but does Euron know way back at the Kingsmoot? And how? (If it's magic, then I don't think it counts as knowledge Doran could have.)

 

Anyway, uh, it's possible that by the time he lets Arianne in on his scheme, he's more aware of the dangers Quentyn will be facing, and that's what moves him to tell her. That made a lot more sense to me when I started writing this comment. :S

[GyantSpyder]

One thing I like about this theory is that if it's true, then Quentyn was sent on a trip to go to Volantis and then turn around and come back to Westeros, but instead went to Meereen, and Yung Aegon was sent on a trip to go to Mereen, but instead went to Volantis and then turned around and came back to Westeros.

When Quentyn is in Volantis he sees cyvasse pieces for sale, and Aegon's decision to go west happened because of a game of cyvasse. Meanwhile, in the game of thrones there are players and pieces, both these guys are pieces, and both of them seem to have been moved incorrectly (though perhaps one is being deliberately sacrificed).

Meanwhile, during all this, Volantis was in the midst of a pro-Daenerys revolution that nobody managed to capitalize on.

It's a pretty cool tangle, that.

[Frey family reunion]

Interesting.  As for Illyrio, I think when he talks to Tyrion, he is under the assumption that Dany was leaving Mereen for Volantis and she would be coming by ship.  My guess is he may have known of ( or even been complicit with) Xaro's offer/threat for Dany to leave Mereen by his thirteen ships.  I wonder if Doran was aware of this as well?

[kimim]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Now that I can't explain. Maybe... um... maybe...

I dunno

Maybe it's got something to do with when he told her. Clearly he didn't trust her, or perhaps he just wanted to use his children as little as possible in his scheming in case it backfired, to minimise the chance that they'd be punished. (Quentyn wouldn't enter into this consideration if he was already being held hostage for Doran's good behaviour.) Perhaps he only tells Arianne because (a) he realises that by not confiding in her, he'd driven her to her own drastic plans, and (b) he's heard some unfavourable news from the east that makes him worry about Quentyn somehow.

...

Anyway, uh, it's possible that by the time he lets Arianne in on his scheme, he's more aware of the dangers Quentyn will be facing, and that's what moves him to tell her. That made a lot more sense to me when I started writing this comment. :S

Ita that Doran couldn't have known Dany's exact location when he sent Quentyn. Dany is behaving erratically, moving to Slaver's Bay with no warning, conquering, etc. However, I think that Quentyn's behavior is a hint that Doran told him more or less what he tells Arianne, that his mission is crucial to Doran's plans and to Dorne's future. I think this is why Quentyn risks his life trying to reach Meereen, and why he risks his life trying to capture a dragon. Of course Doran couldn't have known the insanity that Quentyn's quest would eventually entail, but that doesn't mean that he sent the kid to Essos, just to get him out of the way.

Doran has never made sense to me. He says that he wants revenge, fire, blood! Yet he's done nothing for over seventeen years; he's waited so long that all those responsible for Elia's death are also dead. He says that there's a marriage contract with Viserys, yet he apparently didn't lift a finger to help his future son-in-law.

Then there's the fact that he's sent his son off to marry Dany, sent his daughter off to possibly marry Aegon, while his other son is married to Myrcella. Dany will fight Aegon. Myrcella, if she ever takes the throne, will fight both Dany and Aegon. Doran's children will be in the midst of the bloodshed, set against one another in the battle over the throne. Why would Doran want this? Compare his behavior to the Tyrells: They want a queen, so they use Marg. The Tyrell equivalent to what Doran's doing is to marry Marg to Joff, Garlan to Shireen, and Loras to Robb, assuming Robb's more into men than women. It's asking for disaster.

 

[Winter prince]

The thing I don't understand with him sending Arianne off to possibly marry Aegon is the relation they would already have... unless he thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

10 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for Illyrio, I think when he talks to Tyrion, he is under the assumption that Dany was leaving Mereen for Volantis and she would be coming by ship.

He is. (Well, he thinks she might be coming by road, but either way, she must go to Volantis.)

10 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

My guess is he may have known of ( or even been complicit with) Xaro's offer/threat for Dany to leave Mereen by his thirteen ships. I wonder if Doran was aware of this as well?

Excellent idea! Illyrio's web spreads all over the world - why not to Qarth? I don't think Doran is involved with Illyrio's plotting, though. I think GRRM has ruled that out, IIRC. Doran's knowledge of Dany must come from the publicly available gossip that spreads through the world's port cities. (Unless he has extra agents in Essos that we don't know about, which is possible: a wife in Norvos, a possible link to an Archon of Tyrosh and a Sealord of Braavos.)

10 hours ago, kimim said:

...I think that Quentyn's behavior is a hint that Doran told him more or less what he tells Arianne, that his mission is crucial to Doran's plans and to Dorne's future. I think this is why Quentyn risks his life trying to reach Meereen, and why he risks his life trying to capture a dragon.

IIRC Quentyn's thoughts in this regard mostly revolve around his desire that his friend's didn't die in vain, and the prospect of shame or embarassment if he goes home unsuccessful. My feeling is that Doran didn't know his son well enough to know that he'd soldier on for fear of shame.

10 hours ago, kimim said:

Doran has never made sense to me. He says that he wants revenge, fire, blood! Yet he's done nothing for over seventeen years.

Crackpot: Doran couldn't make any moves until Jon Arryn died.

10 hours ago, kimim said:

He says that there's a marriage contract with Viserys, yet he apparently didn't lift a finger to help his future son-in-law.

Crackpot: the marriage contract is fake. (See Deeper Dorne 8 by Preston Jacobs.)

10 hours ago, kimim said:

Then there's the fact that he's sent his son off to marry Dany, sent his daughter off to possibly marry Aegon, while his other son is married to Myrcella. Dany will fight Aegon. Myrcella, if she ever takes the throne, will fight both Dany and Aegon. Doran's children will be in the midst of the bloodshed, set against one another in the battle over the throne.

Arianne isn't supposed to marry Aegon, just to get the measure of him. (I actually suspect she's just there to give the diplomatic mission a respectable sheen, and it's Daemon Sand or one of the others (perhaps his treasurer's daughter, I forget her name) whose opinion he really wants.) Trystane is only betrothed to Myrcella; that can be easily set aside (unless Doran wants a Martell to become the Lord of Casterly Rock; the better to unmake Tywin's works.)

As for Quentyn, either he expects Quentyn to fail, or he's started to think that he probably has failed. The news coming from the east wouldn't be encouraging.

9 hours ago, Winter prince said:

The thing I don't understand with him sending Arianne off to possibly marry Aegon is the relation they would already have... unless he thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre

I never clocked that they were related. They're cousins, right? Then again, in Westeros that ain't that weird, especially among those freaky-deaky Dornish. But again, I don't think she's supposed to marry Aegon. If she does, it'll be disastrous for Dorne, and totally down to her impetuousness and her jealousy of "King Quentyn".

[Land's End]

17 hours ago, GyantSpyder said:

One thing I like about this theory is that if it's true, then Quentyn was sent on a trip to go to Volantis and then turn around and come back to Westeros, but instead went to Meereen, and Yung Aegon was sent on a trip to go to Mereen, but instead went to Volantis and then turned around and came back to Westeros.

I thought Quentin was supposed to go back after Volantis but he was like "My friends died I can’t go home with empty hands... honor, shame, etc. etc.“ and Drinkwater was like „Nah, bro, let's go back" but maybe I'm misremembering.

I'm still hoping Doran has some master plot hidden under his thermal blanket. I found him to be an intriguing character when he was introduced and I would be disappointed is he turns out to be what everybody says he is: too slow.

[Ellenandrew]

I just love the theories about Dorne, even though they sometimes make me very confused. I try to take everything with a grain of salt but strangely, I find myself agreeing with the parts about Quentyn's fostering and Jon Arryn. I have no idea about what Doran intends to do for revenge and I don't really care either, but that Jon Arryn had some cards up his sleeve...that I can believe. I would love to find out more about the man.

[Michael Mertyns]

17 hours ago, Winter prince said:

The thing I don't understand with him sending Arianne off to possibly marry Aegon is the relation they would already have... unless he thinks Aegon is a Blackfyre

Tywin Lannister married his first cousin without any complaints.