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SpaceX--Spacecraft, rockets, and Mars


SpaceChampion

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Today at the ISS R&D conference, a few things from Musk's Q&A: (not exact quotes, just a summary)

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Elon: "IAC 2017 would be a good place for Mars update. It's evolved significantly. Might ask for prewritten questions *[laughter]. How to pay for it? Downsize for Earth-orbit activity., it's a little bit smaller, I think this one has a better shot at being real re: economics."

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Tunnels can be really good for Mars, optimizations for the red planet though. Ice mining will be important, also underground habitats for radiation shielding. Entire cities underground if you wanted to.

"I try to spend as much on R&D as I can. I spend 80% of my time doing engineering."

 

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Q: Dragon will no longer land propulsively?

A: That's true, hard decision. Technically it still is, but it'd have to land on a soft landing pad, no legs. Hard to qualify the safety for crew. Base-mounted heatshield and side-mounted thrusters were going to be the plan for landing on Mars, that's no longer the plan. Red Dragon could be brought back later, but not a good resource drain right now.

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Q: Will you ride Dragon to ISS?

A: "I would like to, assuming things work out. Maybe three or four years."

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Q: Principle biological concerns for landing on Mars?

A: Going to Mars is not for the faint of heart. Risky, dangerous, cramped, you might die. There will be issues, but not irradiated to death; about equivalent to smoking. Some shielding should cut down on the marginal risk for cancer. Learning a lot about solar winds. Not a show-stopper.

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Q: Follow up on biology: will SpaceX develop biological technology for colonization?

A: SpaceX focused on transportation. Propellant depot on Mars, but don't want to get in the way of what others are doing.

 

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  • Dragon 2 propulsive landing has been dropped. Crew Dragon and next-gen Cargo Dragon will both use parachutes to land, and next-gen Cargo Dragon will lack the SuperDraco system entirely. The risk factor is too high, legs protruding from the heatshield were deemed unworkable.

  • Red Dragon missions have been canceled. This is a result of the propulsive landing decision and that Red Dragon's Mars atmospheric entry in no way resembles ITS's planned entry.

  • Scaled-down ITS to be used for commercial missions.

  • Falcon Heavy demo flight stands a good chance of failure. Elon would be happy if SpaceX gets away with an undamaged pad LC-39A. "Real good chance that vehicle does not make it to orbit", and "major pucker factor".

  • Boca Chica launch site can serve as a backup pad for ISS flights. If a hurricane renders Cape launch facilities inoperable, SpaceX's in-progress southern Texas pad can pick up the slack.

  • First Dragon 1 reflight cost as much or more than a new Dragon. Elon expects this to improve drastically, first refurbishment had to deal with issues like water intrusion into the capsule.

  • Fairing recovery and eventual reuse is progressing well. First successful recovery is expected later this year, with the first fairing reflights late 2017 or early 2018. Repeated figure of '5 to 6 million dollars' for the fairings.

  • Second stage recovery and reuse is still on the table. It's not a priority until after streamlined first stage reuse and Dragon 2 flights, but it's there. Second stage is approximately 20% of total mission costs.

  • 12 flights still planned this year. SpaceX should have 3 pads firing on all cylinders by Q4.

  • Goal for end of 2018 is 24-hour first stage turnaround. Zero refurbishment, including paint.

 

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So it looks like the ITS will be resized from the 2016 version of 12m diameter to a 9m diameter rocket.  About 75% of the size in all dimensions probably , and the booster at half the thrust with 21 Raptor engines instead of 42, it'll still be a massive vehicle.

Using the existing launch pads and factory is a good plan to save money, do it quickly (by 2022 or 2024) and using this to replace the Falcon Heavy (which hasn't even flown yet but is maybe overly difficult and not fully reusable for every mission), would be a good entry way into proving capability for not just a Mars mission, but a Mars program, and take a grab at all the business in LEO or Moon orbit before Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin can.

About 150 mT to LEO (assuming arrives empty using up all fuel but that needed for return flight), which if refueled from tanker ships to full tank capacity could take maybe 100 mT to the surface of the Moon, and 225? mT to Mars.  (Moon payload capacity is less than Mars because you have to bring down all your propellants to launch from the Moon, whereas Mars assumes you land with tanks nearly empty and refuel from Martian methane and oxygen).

In the mean time they'll get Falcon Heavy working, Dragon 2 working, and fly missions to swing by the Moon if they can, but mostly fulfill their contracts to deliver cargo and crew to ISS, and satellites to orbit with the Block 5 version of Falcon 9.  This means their factory will be busy building a fleet of F9 block 5 rockets first that would last them several years of reuse, then switch over to making the first ITS.

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SpaceX closed another funding round, valuing the company at about $22 billion.

In other news, Luke Nosek of the venture capitial firm Founders Fund is leaving that to start a SpaceX focused fund -- called the Gigafund.  Nosek co-founded Paypal with Musk, and is a SpaceX board member. 

There is speculation the Gigafund might invest in technology companies related to Mars colonization in addition to SpaceX.  Gigafund appears to be starting with a $100 million dollar fund, but has no guarantee it'll be allowed to invest in SpaceX.

Founders Fund already has about $200 million invested in SpaceX, but will not have any relationship with the Gigafund. 

Another rumour is that Nosek is the guy who bought the ticket from SpaceX to ride a Dragon around the Moon.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sunday is the scheduled launch date of SpaceX's next flight, the Formosat-5 satellite for Taiwan.  What's unusual about this flight is the sat is less than 500 kg.  Originally it was scheduled to fly in 2014-2015 on a Falcon 1e rocket, but SpaceX discontinued that rocket long ago in favour of developing the F9.  This mission was a rideshare with a co-customer (Spaceflight's Sherpa payload adapter that would have carried 89 nanosats and microsats) set to share the lift to orbit, but they pulled out due to uncertainly with launch delays.

Without reusability this flight would be a net loss for SpaceX, sold to the customer at $23M, but with it assuming they fly the same first stage several times at their normal prices, it essentially just pushes amortization of development costs for F9 by a flight or two.  Except I'm not sure they are going to refly this first stage, since it appears to be the last "Block 3" version of the F9, and they want to retire Block 4 and quickly move on to Block 5 later this year -- the latter will apparently require little refurbishment in order to refly 10 times each.

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20 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

Sunday is the scheduled launch date of SpaceX's next flight, the Formosat-5 satellite for Taiwan.  What's unusual about this flight is the sat is less than 500 kg.  Originally it was scheduled to fly in 2014-2015 on a Falcon 1e rocket, but SpaceX discontinued that rocket long ago in favour of developing the F9.  This mission was a rideshare with a co-customer (Spaceflight's Sherpa payload adapter that would have carried 89 nanosats and microsats) set to share the lift to orbit, but they pulled out due to uncertainly with launch delays.

Without reusability this flight would be a net loss for SpaceX, sold to the customer at $23M, but with it assuming they fly the same first stage several times at their normal prices, it essentially just pushes amortization of development costs for F9 by a flight or two.  Except I'm not sure they are going to refly this first stage, since it appears to be the last "Block 3" version of the F9, and they want to retire Block 4 and quickly move on to Block 5 later this year -- the latter will apparently require little refurbishment in order to refly 10 times each.

It is the CRS-12 ressuply mission on August 14. The Formosat mission is scheduled towards the end of August.

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On 2017-08-09 at 6:19 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is the CRS-12 ressuply mission on August 14. The Formosat mission is scheduled towards the end of August.

You are correct.  A bunch of SpaceX flight dates were in flux, I got confused.  :dunno:

The CRS-12 launching tomorrow at 12:31PM EST and weather is 70% favourable.

This will be the last time a brand new Dragon 1 cargo vehicle will fly -- remainder of missions will be previously flown until Dragon 2's first flight.  This'll be one of their heaviest Dragons, maxed out the volume and mass to stuff it for the ISS resupply.

Also the first stage is the first Block 4 version (but the landing legs have previously been flown).  Block 4 engines have 58% more acceleration at sea level than Block 3, so the difference should be visible.

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On 2017/08/08 at 9:34 PM, SpaceChampion said:

Sunday is the scheduled launch date of SpaceX's next flight, the Formosat-5 satellite for Taiwan.  What's unusual about this flight is the sat is less than 500 kg.  Originally it was scheduled to fly in 2014-2015 on a Falcon 1e rocket, but SpaceX discontinued that rocket long ago in favour of developing the F9.  This mission was a rideshare with a co-customer (Spaceflight's Sherpa payload adapter that would have carried 89 nanosats and microsats) set to share the lift to orbit, but they pulled out due to uncertainly with launch delays.

Without reusability this flight would be a net loss for SpaceX, sold to the customer at $23M, but with it assuming they fly the same first stage several times at their normal prices, it essentially just pushes amortization of development costs for F9 by a flight or two.  Except I'm not sure they are going to refly this first stage, since it appears to be the last "Block 3" version of the F9, and they want to retire Block 4 and quickly move on to Block 5 later this year -- the latter will apparently require little refurbishment in order to refly 10 times each.

Today!  2:51pm ET out of Vandenburg.

 

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On 4/27/2016 at 4:02 PM, SpaceChampion said:

SpaceX going to Mars in 2018...

SpaceX (with NASA hitching a ride for its science payload) is planning on sending a Dragon 2 capsule to Mars, same version as the one that successfully did the Pad Abort test last year.  It'll be launched on a Falcon Heavy rocket, which is yet to have its first flight, though that is expected to happen later this year.  The Red Dragon project is a series of missions to test propulsive landing using Dragon 2, which is the same capsule that would be used for SpaceX's plans for future cargo and human landings in support of permanent Mars base.

[Note from February 2017: Clearly I was wrong about Dragon 2 used for human Mars landings as part of the Mars Colonial Transport system / Interplanetary Transport System or whatever Musk is calling it by the time it launches.  I imagine Dragon 2 would be used for fast delivery of special packages to Mars for any colony, but ITS would be the main cargo & human transporter.]

Dragon is a launch and landing vehicle. It does not have long enough duration life support systems to get humans from Earth orbit to Mars orbit, but once in Mars orbit, it would be used for landings.  Fortunately, companies like Bigelow Aerospace are developing exactly that habitat tech that could be used for both transferring to Mars orbit, and as a habitat down on Mars itself.

SpaceX is funding Red Dragon itself.  NASA participation is an extension of one of its existing no-exchange-of-funds agreements.  Red Dragon is about 5x to 10x the mass of Curiosity, so it'll be by far the heaviest thing to land on Mars.  NASA seems to be sending scientific instruments on board, in exchange for technical support and data exchange.

Update:  NASA's contribution specifically

ie. with NASA's Deep Space Network for comms, and currently orbiting Mars spacecraft for photography and sensing.

Exciting!

Now that is really cool ! :cool4:

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  • 2 weeks later...

Launch attempt of the OTV-5 mission of the X-37B reusable space plane for the U.S. Air Force atop the Falcon 9, at 9:50 a.m. EDT (13:50 GMT) Sept. 7, 2017 morning, with a 5 hour launch window. What the OTV-5 mission is going to do in orbit is a military secret.  Since X-37B has a payload bay like the Shuttle did, presumably something is riding up in it.

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According to the Air Force, this mission carries small satellite ride shares and will demonstrate greater opportunities for rapid space access and on-orbit testing of emerging space technologies. Additionally, the mission will host the Air Force Research Laboratory Advanced Structurally Embedded Thermal Spreader payload to test experimental electronics and oscillating heat pipe technologies in the long duration space environment.

Everything else about the OTV-5 mission, like all of the other flights of the stubby spaceplane, is currently classified.

How it is going to launch when a hurricane is bearing down on Florida, I don't know.  Irma doesn't makes landfall until Sunday in Miami, but there is still a 60% chance of weather scrub.  I guess if they have to scrub they'll still have time to pull the rocket and payload back to the vehicle assembly building for securing until the skies clear, but the VAB is only rated for Cat 3 hurricanes!  Good luck with that, SpaceX!

If successful this will be SpaceX's first launch for the U.S. Air Force.

Webcast will be here:

but once the upper stage separates from the booster the webcast won't be following it, since it's exact orbit is secret.  Instead, live streaming of the first stage landing at LZ-1 landing pad will be the only thing on the screen.

 

In other news:

* SpaceX still targetting 20 launches this year, and 40 next year.

* Propulsive landing for Dragon 2 may be back on the table! With the latest landing of the booster achieving  accuracy of 0.7m from the bulls-eye, that's well within the 2m accuracy needed to land in a cradle (similar to the launch mount cradles that would be used for the ITS tanker/cargo/crew ships when landing on Earth for rapid turnaround relaunch within a day).  The problem with the current design that NASA didn't like is the landing legs extending out through the thermal protection shield in the final moments of descent.  NASA had a number of impossible hurdles for SpaceX to prove the safety of the system, so SpaceX had decided to scrap propulsive landing and consequently scrapping the Red Dragon test missions to Mars.  With a landing mount cradle, a legless Dragon 2 can achieve the goal of landing safely back on dry land and returning astronauts can walk right off it.

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7 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

Launch attempt of the OTV-5 mission of the X-37B reusable space plane for the U.S. Air Force atop the Falcon 9, at 9:50 a.m. EDT (13:50 GMT) Sept. 7, 2017 morning, with a 5 hour launch window. What the OTV-5 mission is going to do in orbit is a military secret.  Since X-37B has a payload bay like the Shuttle did, presumably something is riding up in it.

How it is going to launch when a hurricane is bearing down on Florida, I don't know.  Irma doesn't makes landfall until Sunday in Miami, but there is still a 60% chance of weather scrub.  I guess if they have to scrub they'll still have time to pull the rocket and payload back to the vehicle assembly building for securing until the skies clear, but the VAB is only rated for Cat 3 hurricanes!  Good luck with that, SpaceX!

If successful this will be SpaceX's first launch for the U.S. Air Force.

Webcast will be here:

but once the upper stage separates from the booster the webcast won't be following it, since it's exact orbit is secret.  Instead, live streaming of the first stage landing at LZ-1 landing pad will be the only thing on the screen.

 

In other news:

* SpaceX still targetting 20 launches this year, and 40 next year.

* Propulsive landing for Dragon 2 may be back on the table! With the latest landing of the booster achieving  accuracy of 0.7m from the bulls-eye, that's well within the 2m accuracy needed to land in a cradle (similar to the launch mount cradles that would be used for the ITS tanker/cargo/crew ships when landing on Earth for rapid turnaround relaunch within a day).  The problem with the current design that NASA didn't like is the landing legs extending out through the thermal protection shield in the final moments of descent.  NASA had a number of impossible hurdles for SpaceX to prove the safety of the system, so SpaceX had decided to scrap propulsive landing and consequently scrapping the Red Dragon test missions to Mars.  With a landing mount cradle, a legless Dragon 2 can achieve the goal of landing safely back on dry land and returning astronauts can walk right off it.

As long as the weather holds for today I think they'll be okay.  Florida isn't supposed to have bad weather until Saturday.  They don't even have Hurricane watches on the coast yet.

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I watched it as well, it's becoming almost "normal" now, watching these rockets return to earth and land.  It's incredible what SpaceX has done in such a short period of time.  Great to see them helping the USAF loft their bird too, it'll be interesting to find out what that x37 has been up to all these years, should that ever become declassified.  It's amazing tech in its own right too, staying in orbit literally for years, doing things we can only guess at.  I was hoping after the 2nd stage separation sequence they'd turn the camera towards to payload, as they did with the last satellite launch, so we could watch the X37 deploy - alas, I'm sure that USAF/DND classification rules cut that feed to us mere civilians. 

I think if just a matter of a couple/few years, civilians will be going into space, even orbiting the moon, thanks to SpaceX and other civilian space tech companies.  I still feel we should get our feet under us by establishing a moon base or colony before taking shots to Mars, and I hope that advances in tech will do that.

Does anyone else who watches these launches frequently think that if we could only have peace, and not waste SO much on defense, that we could as humans be moving so much faster into our solar system?  Such resources and lives we waste fighting each other, over nonsense mostly, and every time I see how fast our tech and space capabilities are advancing, I wonder just how much farther we could be going by putting our efforts into peaceful and helpful endeavors.  Every new launch and landing I watch, it's a marvel, but I can't help but still have these feelings, every single time.

This is a great thread, SpaceChampion, Scot, others, it's always a good visit to the board when I see this thread near the top.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Musk is once again appearing at the International Astronautical Congress to give an update for his Mars plans.  The IAC has started, Musk is presenting on Friday, 2pm in Adelaide, South Australia, which in your local time is: http://erthbeet.com/lv5230

This time he'll be taking screened questioned through twitter.  The talk will be webcast, so I'll post the youtube link when it's available.

The update to the Interplanetary Transport System design will have a few surprises, apparently.

In other news, SpaceX's satellite constellation has a name: Starlink.  I guess Skynet was taken.

 

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