Marvel Netflix - Sweet Christmas!

[RumHam]

5 hours ago, john said:

(although I suppose every country has a Disney channel).

The one in North Korea just plays Song of The South 24/7.

[The Anti-Targ]

Did they announce a JJ season 3? If they haven't I'm thinking it'll get canned too. Seems like they will end with Season 3 of DD and season 2 of Punisher. and that will be the end of Marvel on Netflix.

Marvel on Disney streaming probably won't be enough of a draw for me to subscribe.

I don't know if Netflix was prescient or something, but them getting into making their own content, movies,TV series, and some of their own kids content ( though they probably need to do more of that including kids TV shows), is probably their most important act of self-preservation now that individual studios are looking to make their own streaming services.

 

[briantw]

7 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Did they announce a JJ season 3?

Yes.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, briantw said:

Yes.

Good to know, So S2 Punisher, S3 JJ and S3 DD and we're all done. At least this will allow S3 of JJ to close out properly. Would love to see that end with Luke and Jessica hooking back up. Perhaps they can close out Luke Cage somewhat by having her and Danny team up to do an intervention with Luke to stop him going down the dark road Mariah sent him on.

[RedEyedGhost]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Marvel on Disney streaming probably won't be enough of a draw for me to subscribe.

Midnight Suns in the same manner they did Defenders would for me.  Ghost Rider, Blade, Moon Knight, and Morbius...    

 

I do wonder if that would be too dark for a wholly Disney service.

[Morpheus]

Midnight Sons would be fun, however, Morbius is wrapped up with the Spider-Man  rights and sadly they re making a movie with Jared Leto who isn’t content with just being the worst Joker ever.

[Werthead]

12 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Did they announce a JJ season 3?

Not only have they announced it, they've finished shooting (or just about). Krysten Ritter was talking about having directed her first episode of TV for it.

The Punisher Season 2 finished shooting earlier, so most likely we'll get that in the spring and Jessica Jones in the summer.

[red snow]

I think it's a ratings Vs hassle thing. Cage and fist clearly haven't done as well and Netflix might be at the stage where if Disney stream isn't world wide then they can still air Disney shows at much less cost. So only worth bothering with the ones that are hits now. They are probably better having daredevil out every year than every 2 and canceling the other shows help 

23 hours ago, john said:

Is it an IP issue?  Marvel make the shows, wont they just make them (not those specifically but other ones) for Disney streaming rather than Netflix, nobody’s losing any rights.  Presumably they won’t be launching worldwide immediately so they could use Netflix for international broadcast maybe (although I suppose every country has a Disney channel).

Maybe it’s just as simple as not many people streamed Luke Cage or Iron Fist, or didn’t stream it in an encouraging way. I definitely didn’t, I was quitting in the middle of episodes to watch something else.

I agree I would not pay to just watch the marvel shows anymore even if they were on the Disney one featuring movie characters. Which shows how the brand has deteriorated in my mind as it was daredevil that got me to give Netflix another try. The fact I watched punisher, managed 4/5 Eps of jjs2 and will be watching daredevil S3 might go someway to explaining the cancellations if others have followed a similar viewing pattern to my own.

I'd say the fact runaways and cloak and dagger weren't Netflix shows indicates marvel's reluctance to do other shows with Netflix. 

[mormont]

It's hard to get data on Netflix, but I understand that in fact the first seasons of IF and LC did very well. These cancellations have come quite hard on the heels of S2 of each show, and for a streaming service, which cares less about initial viewing figures, that's odd. At the same time, each of those shows creatively seemed to be looking forward to setting up new seasons and plotlines. 

I'm thinking out loud here, but I suspect the metric Netflix really care about is: are people signing up to see our shows? And that's the one where the Marvel series may be falling down. I think they did initially, but with so many competing superhero shows - and with Netflix picking up second runs of some of those shows, like Black Lightning - that might explain the cancellations.

[red snow]

I also recall the shows were relatively cheap to make meaning they weren't in a sense8 situation where it had to be mega successful to warrant the cost.

Less new subscribers may be a metric they use although the frequency of marvel shows means most people probably don't cancel for the month in between shows dropping. If they do the frequency may be hurting their "ratings". Eg someone who only buys a month then waits for a show could well have decided to wait until daredevil came out after Jessica Jones and watch Luke cage and iron fist.

I guess if daredevil gets cancelled after season 3 then we know something other than ratings is at play and that JJ and punisher will be wrapping irrespective of success.

[mormont]

See, that's the thing. Ratings mean little or nothing to Netflix. They get the same amount of money out of a subscriber whether they watch one hour or 100 hours every month. That's the business model.

Until now, the only thing that mattered was new subscriptions and whether a program attracted those. Now they're reaching saturation point, retaining subscriptions probably matters as much. And I will bet Netflix have plenty of data on those points.

I also think the number of people cancelling and re-upping is low. I doubt Netflix are worried about chasing those subscribers anyway.

So if these series aren't attracting or retaining subscribers, they're done. I think they attracted numerous subscribers in the early days. But is anyone getting Netflix at this point to watch Iron Fist? Or even... Daredevil?

'Cause here's a thing. Netflix have now had two golden opportunities to say to subscribers, 'hey guys, don't worry. We're still going to do DD'. Particularly when they cancelled Luke Cage, at which point the 'OMG Marvel Netflix is dead' commentary was in full flow. But they didn't, and given what I've just said about the subscriber model, they really should want to reassure subscribers on that one.

[RedEyedGhost]

10 hours ago, Morpheus said:

Midnight Suns would be fun, however, Morbius is wrapped up with the Spider-Man  rights and sadly they re making a movie with Jared Leto who isn’t content with just being the worst Joker ever.

That's just fucking awful news.  

[Martell Spy]

54 minutes ago, mormont said:

See, that's the thing. Ratings mean little or nothing to Netflix. They get the same amount of money out of a subscriber whether they watch one hour or 100 hours every month. That's the business model.

Until now, the only thing that mattered was new subscriptions and whether a program attracted those. Now they're reaching saturation point, retaining subscriptions probably matters as much. And I will bet Netflix have plenty of data on those points.

I also think the number of people cancelling and re-upping is low. I doubt Netflix are worried about chasing those subscribers anyway.

So if these series aren't attracting or retaining subscribers, they're done. I think they attracted numerous subscribers in the early days. But is anyone getting Netflix at this point to watch Iron Fist? Or even... Daredevil?

'Cause here's a thing. Netflix have now had two golden opportunities to say to subscribers, 'hey guys, don't worry. We're still going to do DD'. Particularly when they cancelled Luke Cage, at which point the 'OMG Marvel Netflix is dead' commentary was in full flow. But they didn't, and given what I've just said about the subscriber model, they really should want to reassure subscribers on that one.

Netflix does care to some degree about how often a show is viewed. I've seen them writing about it, they definitely care about someone completing a season of a series, as they mentioned that. As far as making money though, new subscriptions and new markets all over the globe are where it's at. They want to grow, although obviously they don't want to lose old subscribers while doing that.

Personally, it's very unlikely I would cancel Netflix. I love Daredevil and it's my favorite Netflix show, but Netflix always has content and it's the service I'm always going to have. I'll play the subscribe, view a bunch of content, and cancel game with other services, but not with Netflix. 

 

 

[RumHam]

There are a couple articles claiming this was a mixture of creative differences (presumably over how villainous to make Luke in season 3?) and meh ratings for the second season. I wonder if we might now get a Defenders season two to wrap things up now that these two have been cancelled. I really don't think this is Disney taking back their IP's for their new streaming service. They'd need to let them rest for a few years anyway. Netflix has been canning and otherwise announcing the end of a lot of shows lately.  I just read today they borrowed $2 billion to make new original content. It's only natural they'd want to prune the shows with low viewership or "viewer engagement" or however the hell they measure it these days. 

Edit: Watching Daredevil, episode one or two spoilers:

Didn't that priest have to deduce who Murdoch was in season one? Something about having heard about his father? Now he's known him since childhood and helped raise him? 

[Werthead]

I do find the underperforming idea odd. If Netflix renewed Altered Carbon after apparently dismal ratings they should renew anything, and the Marvel shows have to be, at most, half as expensive as AC. That said, there are a lot of them and if Netflix are viewing them as one project, they might be looking at the cumulative cost of shooting each one: this year they probably spent close to $200 million on producing four seasons of Marvel shows, which may be too much for them and also too much content. I was following these shows quite religiously for a couple of years and even I burned out and left Jessica Jones for six months, by which time I had three seasons in a row to catch up on. I know a lot of my friends, even hardcore Marvel fans who liked the earlier seasons, felt the same way.

That said, it might be that AC's long-term streamings (people streaming it 3 and 4 and 6 months later) held up quite well whilst for the Marvel shows they haven't. Everything Sucks apparently had fantastic early streams, but these dropped like a stone afterwards and, more to the point, relatively few people finished the season compared to how many started, which is why they canned it after just one season. Conversely American Vandal had a hugely long tail and people were coming to it fresh months after it aired.

[john]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I do find the underperforming idea odd. If Netflix renewed Altered Carbon after apparently dismal ratings they should renew anything, and the Marvel shows have to be, at most, half as expensive as AC. [Snip]

That said, it might be that AC's long-term streamings (people streaming it 3 and 4 and 6 months later) held up quite well whilst for the Marvel shows they haven't. Everything Sucks apparently had fantastic early streams, but these dropped like a stone afterwards and, more to the point, relatively few people finished the season compared to how many started, which is why they canned it after just one season. 

I would’ve thought Netflix has more control over those shows though and less hassle in not dealing with a studio with a broadcasting behemoth behind it.  So the combination of underperformance plus frustrated relationships probably just makes it not worthwhile.

i did think the Everything Sucks decision was weird. It seems like it was cancelled before many subscribers even had the chance to watch it.  I don’t see how that decision making can work with the Netflix model, you can’t rely on trending and binging both at once because if I’m binging something I’m not watching new releases.

[Spring Bass]

We don't know much about Netflix's metrics for success (on purpose - it gives them more leverage with creators), but I do recall reading that this

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

more to the point, relatively few people finished the season compared to how many started, which is why they canned it after just one season.

is a big deal for them. A show with a lot of starts, but people abandoning the show without finishing it counts hugely against that show and decisions on renewal. 

[mormont]

[mod] There's a spoiler thread for DDS3, take the spoilers - even under tags - out of this thread please. [/mod]

[DaveSumm]

Does Netflix have individual data on subscribers? Like, do they know if the same person doesn’t finish a series and then cancels, or do they just have ‘didn’t finish’ and ‘cancelled’ figures and correlate them?

I kinda burned out on the Marvel stuff as well. Initially I was propelled by the Marvel factor, that I wanted to have seen everything in the MCU as it went along, but then LC1 and IF1 were a slog and it didn’t look like I’d miss anything relevant for any other part of the universe. What really killed things for me is how poor I found Defenders, until then things had their own mini-inertia within the MCU that it was building to a team up. But why slog through LC2 and IF2 when you didn’t like their first seasons and didn’t like their team up? I did plan on catching up but now it looks like the whole thing is collapsing so I’m struggling to see the point.

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

Does Netflix have individual data on subscribers? Like, do they know if the same person doesn’t finish a series and then cancels, or do they just have ‘didn’t finish’ and ‘cancelled’ figures and correlate them?

I kinda burned out on the Marvel stuff as well. Initially I was propelled by the Marvel factor, that I wanted to have seen everything in the MCU as it went along, but then LC1 and IF1 were a slog and it didn’t look like I’d miss anything relevant for any other part of the universe. What really killed things for me is how poor I found Defenders, until then things had their own mini-inertia within the MCU that it was building to a team up. But why slog through LC2 and IF2 when you didn’t like their first seasons and didn’t like their team up? I did plan on catching up but now it looks like the whole thing is collapsing so I’m struggling to see the point.

If nothing else, just skip to Daredevil season three after Defenders.  It's absolutely worth it, and it tells a completely self-contained story outside of the fact that it basically picks up where Matt is at when Defenders ends.