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Endymion I Targaryen

King's Landing after DWD Epilogue

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In Dance with Dragons epilogue:

Mace Tyrell suggests that:

“These charges against my daughter are filthy lies. I ask again, why must we play out this mummer’s farce? Have King Tommen declare my daughter innocent, ser, and put an end to the foolishness here and now.” , which Kevan dismisses.

Later, when Aegon's invasion is discussed:

“On that we can agree,” Ser Kevan said, “but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever. If she should reach these shores and join her strength to Lord Connington and this prince of his, feigned or no … we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”

Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”

In the end of this meeting of the Small Council, Kevan says:

“Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei’s trial.”

In Mercy from Winds of Winter, the Lannisters guards discussing about Harys Swift that:

"If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head."

More recently in Arianne II from Winds of Winter, Haldon informs Arianne that :

"There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing."

Dance with Dragons ends with Kevan murdered by Varys, Cersei waiting for her trial in five days and Mace Tyrell refusing to move against Aegon and Connighton before his daughter is declared innocent.  But in Mercy, it is implied that Cersei has regained power and in Arianne II, a Tyrell army is coming to deal with Aegon. So what happened in King's Landing after Kevan's murder?

I believe that Mace seized the opportunity and had Tommen declare Margaery innocent. Having settled his daughter's matter, he sent his army to Storm's End. Additionally, he tried to bring more Tyrell allies in the small Council. A regent and a grand maester are needed definitely and some advisors probably (in Storm of Swords there were 4 of them). Cersei won her trial by combat and made Tommen name her regent, entering a power conflict with Mace. Varys seems to want Cersei back in power. The High Sparrow war furious with Mace defying him so the Faith no longer supports the Crown. As Kevan said:  "Defy the High Septon, and we will have blood running in the gutters of King’s Landing as well."

What do you guys believe?

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Those are all pretty safe bets IMO, the only realistic conclusion about the queen comment, is that it was about Cersei.  

I think that aDwD Epilogue set up the rest of those events---I suppose it's possible that he did not have Tommen declare her innocent, and let the Faith go on with their trial, BUT it's much more likely that he did---based on what we know about Mace and the fact that Tommen would undoubtedly do what he was told to do.  

Sorry I couldn't provide any counterpoint or other ideas, but your conclusions seem to have a firm foundation. :)

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Well put together, but I have something to add or change.

First I would like to say that there are two queens, old one and young one.

Now lets start:

I agree that Mace will declare Marge innocent, but there is one thing he will do before that and it is imprisoning Cersei, she is huge threat and needs to be taken out of the pucture, remove her servants and change new ones every day (exactly what she did to Sansa) and put Tyrell men to guard her. This seems very possible to me because Tyrells have at least 40k men at KL, are well loved and will remain even if they defy faith (remember those men at Sept who wanted Marge out) and Cersei is despised by everyone.

Now Mace remains Hand and maybe becomes or Marge is proclaimed regent (frankly I don't see anyone else ssuming this position), Pycelle is dead, Radyll and Paxter stay at SC, Whispers will go to their loyal man (Garlan?) but will remain empty for a while, Jaime will nor arrive for a while and Loras can be named LC instead and now we come to Master of Coin... Well Garth is obvious choise, but until he arrives they need someone to treat with IB, right? This is urgent matter and Garth can not arrive for some time due to Ironborn invasion, so they are stuck with Harys, but there is one move they can do to get rid of Harys from KL, make a deal with IB and buys enough time for Garth to come: send him to Braavos. To sum up, Harys was sent to Braavos by Marge, not Cersei, and he took Lannister men to guard him in odrer to reduce numbers of Lannister men in and around KL.

Now we come to interesting part, an army descends on Storm's End. I think we could agree that Mace will not miss a chance for glory that is worth of commander that is great as he is. So he marches on SE with at least half of 40k and at most 30k, he wouldn't let KL be undefended. So at this moment I guess Marge is declared Queen Regent and Randyll is left with 10-20k men to guard her. Mace marches on Aegon and gets defeated and proceedes to march on KL and Randyll simply opens gates for Aegon or dennys entrance in city to what is left of Mace's army which leads to its extermination. Now why would Randyll do this? Because he was treated like shit by Mace who stole his glory at Ashford, who took BK from his wife, who gace him lame jobs to do,.... I think Varys will persuade him to back Aegon and he will get Wardenship of South and Brighwater Keep and maybe position on SC.

This kinda seems more likely to me than Cersei regaining power because her only ally is Quiburn and her army is some guardists.

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Ya, wow, I didn't really piece these two chapters together. Damn I want this book. I like Marge, which makes me think she will die soon, bloody books.

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Or Mace has split his men, half are marching on Storm's End and half stay in KL. It was Aegon taking Storm's End that convinced him he had to deal with Aegon now. Cersei has won her trial, Marge is still awaiting trial.

Mace can not seize Marge without it coming to war within the city, the HS wouldn't just be angry, he'd war. The HS is a fanatic, as are his followers, he and they'll fight and die. And when Mace makes a hostile move against the Faith the city will become adversarial to Mace and sympathetic towards the Faith.

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On 5/10/2016 at 1:14 PM, dariopatke said:

Well put together, but I have something to add or change.

First I would like to say that there are two queens, old one and young one.

Now lets start:

I agree that Mace will declare Marge innocent, but there is one thing he will do before that and it is imprisoning Cersei, she is huge threat and needs to be taken out of the pucture, remove her servants and change new ones every day (exactly what she did to Sansa) and put Tyrell men to guard her. This seems very possible to me because Tyrells have at least 40k men at KL, are well loved and will remain even if they defy faith (remember those men at Sept who wanted Marge out) and Cersei is despised by everyone.

Now Mace remains Hand and maybe becomes or Marge is proclaimed regent (frankly I don't see anyone else ssuming this position), Pycelle is dead, Radyll and Paxter stay at SC, Whispers will go to their loyal man (Garlan?) but will remain empty for a while, Jaime will nor arrive for a while and Loras can be named LC instead and now we come to Master of Coin... Well Garth is obvious choise, but until he arrives they need someone to treat with IB, right? This is urgent matter and Garth can not arrive for some time due to Ironborn invasion, so they are stuck with Harys, but there is one move they can do to get rid of Harys from KL, make a deal with IB and buys enough time for Garth to come: send him to Braavos. To sum up, Harys was sent to Braavos by Marge, not Cersei, and he took Lannister men to guard him in odrer to reduce numbers of Lannister men in and around KL.

Now we come to interesting part, an army descends on Storm's End. I think we could agree that Mace will not miss a chance for glory that is worth of commander that is great as he is. So he marches on SE with at least half of 40k and at most 30k, he wouldn't let KL be undefended. So at this moment I guess Marge is declared Queen Regent and Randyll is left with 10-20k men to guard her. Mace marches on Aegon and gets defeated and proceedes to march on KL and Randyll simply opens gates for Aegon or dennys entrance in city to what is left of Mace's army which leads to its extermination. Now why would Randyll do this? Because he was treated like shit by Mace who stole his glory at Ashford, who took BK from his wife, who gace him lame jobs to do,.... I think Varys will persuade him to back Aegon and he will get Wardenship of South and Brighwater Keep and maybe position on SC.

This kinda seems more likely to me than Cersei regaining power because her only ally is Quiburn and her army is some guardists.

Interesting thoughts. ;) I agree on the elimination of any Lannister ally in the capital but I find it strange that Margaery threatened to have anyone's head if he fails. As GRRM has presented her, she seems kind. Even if Mace leaves an army in the city, Cersei can recall the Lannister army from the Riverlands with the help of Qyburn. She is the Lady of the Westerlands, the quest for Riverlands is over and the news of Mace's defeat will terrify her.  The return of her army will make her more confident to act against the Tyrells. 

On 7/10/2016 at 2:10 AM, chrisdaw said:

Mace can not seize Marge without it coming to war within the city, the HS wouldn't just be angry, he'd war. The HS is a fanatic, as are his followers, he and they'll fight and die. And when Mace makes a hostile move against the Faith the city will become adversarial to Mace and sympathetic towards the Faith.

The Faith released Margaery to the custody of Randyll Tarly until the day of her trial. Tarly, despite his oath to bring her for trial has this opinion about the Faith: “What have we become, when kings and high lords must dance to the twittering of sparrows?”

Mace is not much better ruler than Cersei and Randyll may want Mace to go to an open war with the Faith (he has reasons to resent him for stealing him the credits of the win at Asford and Brightwater Keep). 

 

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On 8.10.2016. at 1:54 PM, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Interesting thoughts. ;) I agree on the elimination of any Lannister ally in the capital but I find it strange that Margaery threatened to have anyone's head if he fails. As GRRM has presented her, she seems kind. Even if Mace leaves an army in the city, Cersei can recall the Lannister army from the Riverlands with the help of Qyburn. She is the Lady of the Westerlands, the quest for Riverlands is over and the news of Mace's defeat will terrify her.  The return of her army will make her more confident to act against the Tyrells. 

 

Well, Harys was father-in-law of Kevan and MoC and Hand of Cersei, he was pretty related to Lannisters, perhaps sweet innocent Marge is not that kind to any man related to them. We saw her lose her sweet mask two times: when she requested ships and when she was visited at Sept, perhaps her mummers farce is over? I mean that we should not expect her to be kind to him anymore. He should be more than happy that he is kept as MoC and is put on this task so I guess they assured him how important this is.

However it is more likely that Cersei sais it than Marge, but this seems to be only thing that makes her more likely mentioned queen.

That army (that has couple thousand men at best) first has to rescue Jaime and then follow him as their leader, but I guess he will march there because of Tommen, what happens later I am not certain, but he can not beat Randyll and I guess, she may try something stupid, but she will get beaten because there is no chance Randyll loses a battle when his odds are 5 to 1 at least. When I think about it it is very likely that Randyll doesnt let them in city at all, only commanders. 

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12 hours ago, dariopatke said:

However it is more likely that Cersei says it than Marge

I liked your reasoning on how it could be Margaery, but I just don't see "If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head." being in Margaery's character.  Possible, yes, but VERY unlikely.

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Yes, it does sound like Cersei is back in a position of power. In the confusion with the murders of Pycelle and Kevan, Mace may seize the opportunity to have Margaery declared innocent by Tommen. There will be all sorts of upheavals in the power chain when they are discovered and it would be a perfect opportunity to make it happen. I'm like the others who does not think that Margaery is the one that they are afraid of taking MoC's head though...that sounds like Cersei, so she's figured out some way of resuming a place of authority.

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19 hours ago, Wolf of the Steppes said:

I liked your reasoning on how it could be Margaery, but I just don't see "If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head." being in Margaery's character.  Possible, yes, but VERY unlikely.

Thank you. Well I used this logic in deducing this was Marge: There is only one thing that points Cersei has power and dozen evidences (and logic) that Margaery has power or shows lack of possibility that Cersei can become Regent again. And like I said I do find it unlikely, but there are bigger chances that she said it than Cersei being able to take the city.

However this may be a joke, we do not have their POV to know if they were serious.

And I would like to add this: In Mercy chapter we are sure thar Cersei is mentioned once:

”So maybe he figures the last place his sister would ever look for him would be in some mummer show, making fun of himself. So he does just that, to tweak her nose.”

His sister, not Queen. 

And another thing, in FfC Cersei thought Harys is stupid and can be manipulated, right? Well, she likely still thinks that and Harys and Quiburn are her only allies in city, why send one of them away? It makes much more sense that Marge is the one who sends Harys away than Cersei.

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On ‎11‎.‎10‎.‎2016 at 3:53 PM, dariopatke said:

And another thing, in FfC Cersei thought Harys is stupid and can be manipulated, right? Well, she likely still thinks that and Harys and Quiburn are her only allies in city, why send one of them away? It makes much more sense that Marge is the one who sends Harys away than Cersei.

If Qyburn and Harys are Cersei's only allies, those two may be the only ones she can trust enough to send them on a mission. They might be the only people available to her to send on a mission. And it would seem that Harys is better suited to the task than Qyburn.

But I wouldn't discount Margaery just because she is described as kind. She is also described as intelligent - and Lady Olenna's favourite. I suspect Lady Olenna's disciple has claws, just like the old Lady herself. 

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3 hours ago, Tini said:

If Qyburn and Harys are Cersei's only allies, those two may be the only ones she can trust enough to send them on a mission. They might be the only people available to her to send on a mission. And it would seem that Harys is better suited to the task than Qyburn.

But I wouldn't discount Margaery just because she is described as kind. She is also described as intelligent - and Lady Olenna's favourite. I suspect Lady Olenna's disciple has claws, just like the old Lady herself. 

But why send anyone at all? She never cared about Iron Bank in FfC, why now? And we now it is not about money because Kevan said that Lannister have plenty of gold, enough to pay IB (Kevan was reasonable and wanted to sort it out, it is likely Tyrells are the same (well everyone but Mace, but Marge can be behind it), but there is a reason why she wont go to IB: They had enough gold at beginning of FfC but she chose not to pay the Bank, but build ships (something that was not urgent), why would she go there now when it is urgent and she needs every dragon she has (if we assume she somehow regained power) and sending someone to get another loan is beyond idiotic, even she is not that stupid.

Well, we saw her angry and bossy when she heard about Shields and when she was visited by Cersei, ofc she has another side, not just one of sweet innocent girl.

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23 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

But why send anyone at all? She never cared about Iron Bank in FfC, why now? And we now it is not about money because Kevan said that Lannister have plenty of gold, enough to pay IB (Kevan was reasonable and wanted to sort it out, it is likely Tyrells are the same (well everyone but Mace, but Marge can be behind it), but there is a reason why she wont go to IB: They had enough gold at beginning of FfC but she chose not to pay the Bank, but build ships (something that was not urgent), why would she go there now when it is urgent and she needs every dragon she has (if we assume she somehow regained power) and sending someone to get another loan is beyond idiotic, even she is not that stupid.

Well, we saw her angry and bossy when she heard about Shields and when she was visited by Cersei, ofc she has another side, not just one of sweet innocent girl.

The Lannisters have gold. They don't have it in King's Landing. Maybe Cersei can't access it from King's Landing, or has trouble accessing it from King's Landing in large enough quantities. If it were that easy to get she would've paid both her ships and the bank. Or maybe not. She is that stupid.

I have seen no proof that Cersei is fully back in power - both the Tyrells and the Faith will be watching her closely. If Cersei doesn't have absolute power, she will want even more money for obtaining it. And she'll need to get her hands on that money without her watchers / the Council catching on. They would never expect her to go to the IB for a loan. 

I think Cersei really doesn't understand what she set in motion when she stiffed the Iron Bank.

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The High Sparrow won't stay idle if the Crown decides to pardon Marg and takes away from them the power of trialing her. He'll be very angry at Mace but especially at Randyll Tarly for not keeping his word.

King's Landing may very well be in a state of war internally.

On 10/11/2016 at 8:53 AM, dariopatke said:

”So maybe he figures the last place his sister would ever look for him would be in some mummer show, making fun of himself. So he does just that, to tweak her nose.”

“Ah, you're mad.”

“Well, maybe I'll follow him after the mummery. Find out for myself.” The guardsman put a hand on the hilt of his sword. “If I'm right, I'll be a ma lord, and if I'm wrong, well, bleed it, it's just some dwarf.” He gave a bark of laughter.

I completed the quote to illustrate that Raff muses with beheading the dwarf playing Tyrion so he can be "a ma lord."

Wouldn't this imply that Cersei is back in a position of power from which she can grant a lordship to whomever brings her the head of her brother? Marg has never seem too intent in avenging the death of her husband #2 ('what was his name again...?') with which she was married 2 hours, tops.

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2 hours ago, Tini said:

The Lannisters have gold. They don't have it in King's Landing. Maybe Cersei can't access it from King's Landing, or has trouble accessing it from King's Landing in large enough quantities. If it were that easy to get she would've paid both her ships and the bank. Or maybe not. She is that stupid.

I have seen no proof that Cersei is fully back in power - both the Tyrells and the Faith will be watching her closely. If Cersei doesn't have absolute power, she will want even more money for obtaining it. And she'll need to get her hands on that money without her watchers / the Council catching on. They would never expect her to go to the IB for a loan. 

I think Cersei really doesn't understand what she set in motion when she stiffed the Iron Bank.

Well Kevan said that if they don't make a deal he will have to pay them with Lannister gold so yes, they have for ships and Bank and yes, Cersei is that stupid. Well, I think she understands what happened but dismissed it (like GC breaking contract, ward at Rosby. ..) she doesnt think they can harm her, but I do not think she will send one of her two allies on a mission that has zero chances of success (they may steike a deal with Kevan in power, but not woth her).

29 minutes ago, Blackfyre Bastard said:

The High Sparrow won't stay idle if the Crown decides to pardon Marg and takes away from them the power of trialing her. He'll be very angry at Mace but especially at Randyll Tarly for not keeping his word.

King's Landing may very well be in a state of war internally.

I completed the quote to illustrate that Raff muses with beheading the dwarf playing Tyrion so he can be "a ma lord."

Wouldn't this imply that Cersei is back in a position of power from which she can grant a lordship to whomever brings her the head of her brother? Marg has never seem too intent in avenging the death of her husband #2 ('what was his name again...?') with which she was married 2 hours, tops.

Well, Randyll will keep his word and release her when she is declared innocent (however this is my perception, HS may very likely declare him godless man), but yeah, there will be war in KL and nost likely uprising that will make things much easier for Aegon.

That isn't enough evidemce because that deal may still be on the table amd here is why:

Marge doesn't hate Tyrion that much (not that we know of) but do you know who does? Mace. He was  truly mad at Tyrion because he is convinced Marge was target, too.

Now with everything that happened in KL, Tyrion can pose a threat to new Tyrell regime, especially if he joins Aegon as rightful Lord of CR, so why not take out possible huge threat who happens to be man who you despise from the bottom of your heart? Tyrells need power vacume in West, more chaos there it means they have more time to stabilise their regime and when West is unified they will simply be too weak for Tyrells (if they take out Aegon which is part of their plans but unlikely to happen).

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38 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

That isn't enough evidemce because that deal may still be on the table amd here is why:

Marge doesn't hate Tyrion that much (not that we know of) but do you know who does? Mace. He was  truly mad at Tyrion because he is convinced Marge was target, too.

Now with everything that happened in KL, Tyrion can pose a threat to new Tyrell regime, especially if he joins Aegon as rightful Lord of CR, so why not take out possible huge threat who happens to be man who you despise from the bottom of your heart? Tyrells need power vacume in West, more chaos there it means they have more time to stabilise their regime and when West is unified they will simply be too weak for Tyrells (if they take out Aegon which is part of their plans but unlikely to happen).

It may be as you say, since it makes a lot of sense (Mace wasn't in the loop of her mother's plot, after all).

I just mentioned it because it was you who made the quote and noted that Raff was talking about Cersei, and then immediately after he mentions the promised lordship with no mention of who would grant it, so it should stand to reason that is Cersei the one making good of her promise (a Lannister always pay his debts); that's all.

Tywin named Devan Lannister as Warden of the West, so I don't think the power vacuum will be so dramatic. The region should stabilize around him. But I agree that there's a succession crisis for Casterly Rock.

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9 hours ago, Blackfyre Bastard said:

It may be as you say, since it makes a lot of sense (Mace wasn't in the loop of her mother's plot, after all).

I just mentioned it because it was you who made the quote and noted that Raff was talking about Cersei, and then immediately after he mentions the promised lordship with no mention of who would grant it, so it should stand to reason that is Cersei the one making good of her promise (a Lannister always pay his debts); that's all.

Tywin named Devan Lannister as Warden of the West, so I don't think the power vacuum will be so dramatic. The region should stabilize around him. But I agree that there's a succession crisis for Casterly Rock.

My mistake, I was doing quick reread of chapter and I only watched wprds:queen, their names and something similar. 

Well, Cersei named him in order to insult Kevan, but I agree that he is one that can put them in order and ofc Jaime if he shows up. And Daven xan only back someone with stronger claim since he is too low in succession (Tomen? Martyn/Willem? Someone third?)

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Some more thoughts about this topic

  1. Varys wants Cersei back to power and break the Lannister/Tyrell/Martell alliance (DWD epiloguebut you were threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule......... Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him) to help Aegon.
  2. Again from DWD epilogueBlount wore enameled scale, white cloak, and halfhelm. He did not look well. Of late Boros had grown notably heavier about the face and belly, and his color was not good. And he was leaning against the wall behind him, as if standing had become too great an effort for him.  As we know Blount is Tommen's food tester. Maybe someone(Varys or Littlefinger) is feeding him with small amounts of poison so he gets used to it (mithridatism). After that, a certain amount of poison will not harm him but kill Tommen. Tyrells lose their claim to the Iron Throne but Cersei can remain as Myrcella's regent.
  3. The Sand Snakes are an interesting factor. In FFC, The captain of guards, Nymeria  claims that: "Four lives will suffice for me. Lord Tywin’s golden twins, as payment for Elia’s children. The old lion, for Elia herself. And last of all the little king, for my father." In DWD, The Watcherwhile discussing if the head sent to Dorne is trully the Mountain's, Nymeria says: If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. In Winds of Winter, the Sand Snakes will be mad with Cersei (Oberyn's death, the trap to kill Trystane, Gregor Clegane still alive) and plan their revenge against her. 

To sum up what I think will happen after Kevan's death :

Mace becomes Tommen's regent and has Tommen declare Margaery innocent. The High Sparrow is furious with that and no longer supports the Crown, causing blood on the streets. Cersei wins her trial by combat, regains some of her power but is outnumbered. Tyrells seem to have the upper hand until Mace loses the battle at Storm's End and Tommen is poisoned. Cersei seizes the opportunity and crowns Myrcella, becomes her regent and recalls the Lannister army from the Riverlands. She executes Margaery for Kevan's, Pycelle's and Tommen's death and burns the sept of Baelor to deal with the sparrows. Upon learning Tommen's death, Jaime returns to King's Landing and tries to fix things but it's too late. Aegon marches to King's Landing with Martells, Tarlys,Rowans, Storm Lords and the Golden Company and the remaining sparrows ally with him. He takes the city but not before the Sand Snakes kill Myrcella and flee. Cersei and Jaime are arrested by Aegon's army.

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13 minutes ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Some more thoughts about this topic

  1. Varys wants Cersei back to power and break the Lannister/Tyrell/Martell alliance (DWD epiloguebut you were threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule......... Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him) to help Aegon.
  2. Again from DWD epilogueBlount wore enameled scale, white cloak, and halfhelm. He did not look well. Of late Boros had grown notably heavier about the face and belly, and his color was not good. And he was leaning against the wall behind him, as if standing had become too great an effort for him.  As we know Blount is Tommen's food tester. Maybe someone(Varys or Littlefinger) is feeding him with small amounts of poison so he gets used to it (mithridatism). After that, a certain amount of poison will not harm him but kill Tommen. Tyrells lose their claim to the Iron Throne but Cersei can remain as Myrcella's regent.
  3. The Sand Snakes are an interesting factor. In FFC, The captain of guards, Nymeria  claims that: "Four lives will suffice for me. Lord Tywin’s golden twins, as payment for Elia’s children. The old lion, for Elia herself. And last of all the little king, for my father." In DWD, The Watcherwhile discussing if the head sent to Dorne is trully the Mountain's, Nymeria says: If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. In Winds of Winter, the Sand Snakes will be mad with Cersei (Oberyn's death, the trap to kill Trystane, Gregor Clegane still alive) and plan their revenge against her. 

To sum up what I think will happen after Kevan's death :

Mace becomes Tommen's regent and has Tommen declare Margaery innocent. The High Sparrow is furious with that and no longer supports the Crown, causing blood on the streets. Cersei wins her trial by combat, regains some of her power but is outnumbered. Tyrells seem to have the upper hand until Mace loses the battle at Storm's End and Tommen is poisoned. Cersei seizes the opportunity and crowns Myrcella, becomes her regent and recalls the Lannister army from the Riverlands. She executes Margaery for Kevan's, Pycelle's and Tommen's death and burns the sept of Baelor to deal with the sparrows. Upon learning Tommen's death, Jaime returns to King's Landing and tries to fix things but it's too late. Aegon marches to King's Landing with Martells, Tarlys,Rowans, Storm Lords and the Golden Company and the remaining sparrows ally with him. He takes the city but not before the Sand Snakes kill Myrcella and flee. Cersei and Jaime are arrested by Aegon's army.

Your first point is interesting. Certainly someone will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. But there isn't really a Lannister/Tyrell/Martell alliance, is there? The Martells are playing a game of their own, for vengeance. And Aegon is looking to recruit them. Did that escape Varys' notice?

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47 minutes ago, Tini said:

Your first point is interesting. Certainly someone will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. But there isn't really a Lannister/Tyrell/Martell alliance, is there? The Martells are playing a game of their own, for vengeance. And Aegon is looking to recruit them. Did that escape Varys' notice?

Officially, there is. Tyrion offered Myrcella, a place in the court and justice for Elia and Doran ignored Renly/Stannis and then arrested the Sand Snakes. Varys has noticed that and works to weaken the Lannisters so Doran chooses the winning side (Aegon).

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