King's Landing after DWD Epilogue

[aryagonnakill#2]

We are told that the Lannister army in the Riverlands has melted away, and it seems more than likely that the forces left are going to be toppled by angry Riverlords and the BWB.  I do not think Cersei will be able to call for any help to KL.

[A Ghost of Someone]

On 10/3/2016 at 6:04 AM, Endymion I Targaryen said:

In Dance with Dragons epilogue:

Mace Tyrell suggests that:

“These charges against my daughter are filthy lies. I ask again, why must we play out this mummer’s farce? Have King Tommen declare my daughter innocent, ser, and put an end to the foolishness here and now.” , which Kevan dismisses.

Later, when Aegon's invasion is discussed:

“On that we can agree,” Ser Kevan said, “but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever. If she should reach these shores and join her strength to Lord Connington and this prince of his, feigned or no … we must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”

Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”

In the end of this meeting of the Small Council, Kevan says:

“Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei’s trial.”

In Mercy from Winds of Winter, the Lannisters guards discussing about Harys Swift that:

"If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head."

More recently in Arianne II from Winds of Winter, Haldon informs Arianne that :

"There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing."

Dance with Dragons ends with Kevan murdered by Varys, Cersei waiting for her trial in five days and Mace Tyrell refusing to move against Aegon and Connighton before his daughter is declared innocent.  But in Mercy, it is implied that Cersei has regained power and in Arianne II, a Tyrell army is coming to deal with Aegon. So what happened in King's Landing after Kevan's murder?

I believe that Mace seized the opportunity and had Tommen declare Margaery innocent. Having settled his daughter's matter, he sent his army to Storm's End. Additionally, he tried to bring more Tyrell allies in the small Council. A regent and a grand maester are needed definitely and some advisors probably (in Storm of Swords there were 4 of them). Cersei won her trial by combat and made Tommen name her regent, entering a power conflict with Mace. Varys seems to want Cersei back in power. The High Sparrow war furious with Mace defying him so the Faith no longer supports the Crown. As Kevan said:  "Defy the High Septon, and we will have blood running in the gutters of King’s Landing as well."

What do you guys believe?

Very well done indeed. Yep, Cersei will regain power, for a brief while longer. I am beginning to think there will be no trials with the sudden deaths.

[Wrl6199]

1 minute ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Very well done indeed. Yep, Cersei will regain power, for a brief while longer. I am beginning to think there will be no trials with the sudden deaths.

People will rise up against her tho i'm sure.

[A Ghost of Someone]

Just now, Wrl6199 said:

People will rise up against her tho i'm sure.

Yes but she is about to lose it all. I think Aegon sits the Iron throne by the end of TWOW. The Tyrells are about to get hammered by the Iron born, defectors to Aegon and a military defeat in the field are all in store for them. Also, I expect Dorne to atttack them as well.

[Wrl6199]

2 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Yes but she is about to lose it all. I think Aegon sits the Iron throne by the end of TWOW. The Tyrells are about to get hammered by the Iron born, defectors to Aegon and a military defeat in the field are all in store for them. Also, I expect Dorne to atttack them as well.

But what would the seventh book be about then.

[A Ghost of Someone]

13 minutes ago, Wrl6199 said:

But what would the seventh book be about then.

Aegon is the mummer's dragon, false, Blackfyre. Dany will not join forces with him.

[Wrl6199]

Just now, A Ghost of Someone said:

Aegon is the mummer's dragon, false, Blackfyre. Dany will not join forces with him.

or wail she?!?!?!??!?!

[A Ghost of Someone]

I doubt it, she has had visions and prophecies, she is also the "slayer of lies". She will oppose Aegon because she is going to know that he is false.

[Ckram]

Are the trials scheduled to take place within 5 days?

I have the impression that Cersei's trial date is not yet set. When Kevan combines a new Small Council meeting in 5 days, it does not mean "right after" Cersei's trial, but only after Cersei's trial, implying that the trial could happen at any time.

Here are the quotes that gave me this impression, arranged in chronological order:

• aDwD, Epilogue:

The Seven only knew how long mother and son might have together before Cersei’s trial … and possibly her execution. […]

“Thank you, my lords. Let us convene again five days hence. After Cersei’s trial.” [...]

Before he took his leave, he dropped to one knee and kissed his niece upon the hand. If her silent giant failed her, it might be the last kiss she would ever know.

 

Cersei and Margaery chances before and after the murders of Kevan and Pycelle

BEFORE

Cersei's trial was likely to be favorable to her. If on the one hand everyone has the impression that Robert Strong appears to be "formidable", on the other Kevan has already suggested to Tyrell and Tarly that Cersei's conviction may affect Margeary ("If Tommen ceases to be a king, Margaery will Cease to be a queen"). Therefore, Cersei could count on a victory, with the connivance of the Tyrells.

Margaery's trial was also likely to be favorable to her, but since we do not know the truth about the moon tea and the broke maidenheads, we do not know what can be used against Margaery, Megga, Elinor, and Alla, or what kind of defense is being prepared by Tyrells and Tarly.

In fact, even if Margaery, forced by circumstances, has chosen to be tried by the Faith, Megga, Elinor and Alla still have the right to a trial by combat and can choose one of the Tyrell or Tarly soldiers as their champions. That way, convicted or acquitted, Megga, Elinor and Alla should be a problem less.

Anyway, High Sparrow himself has already acknowledged that the case against them is weak, and even Cersei admits that Margaery could have broke her maidenhead by horseback-riding.

AFTER

There is no way of denying that the murders would affect the trials. Both Lannisters, Tyrells, the Faith, the Citadel and the Crown will demand the head of the killers, and, since every suspect will be truly innocent, hardly anyone will accept to take the blame.

The death of Kevan and Pycelle cannot fall upon Cersei except through irrational deductions. Notice: Cersei is guarded day and night by the Faith herself, she has no more friends or power in court, and Boros Blount and Meryn Trant were at Maegor's Holdfast all the time.

The same cannot be said about Margaery or the other Tyrells. Margaery and her cousins are under custody of Randyll Tarly, there are major Tyrell and Tarly armies surrounding the city (in an open intimidation maneuver) and there are more Highgarden men in the City’s watch then Western men. Besides, Pycelle's seat in the Small Council already have a Tyrell successor selected (Maester Gormon) and a new Regent could be easily appointed by them.

However, since this will be bad for the trials, my bet is that the question will be solved by pointing out a scapegoat and then trials will continue as imagined before. “But who will be the scapegoat”? Well, In order that the text doesn’t become too speculative, I’ll put my thoughts in the following hidden-text box:

Spoiler

Qyburn. Or Ser Robert Strong. Or both.

Qyburn spies are Varys spies, so even real evidence can be used against him. Qyburn will most certainly be executed. Kingsguard or accomplice, Ser Robert cannot be his champion in a trial by combat.

Regarding Ser Robert Strong, there’s enough black magic background for the Faith be interested. And since he can’t talk, I think the Faith will somehow submit him to a trial by combat and he will win. And then, he will fight as Cersei’s Champion.

 

Other trial-related issues

BOROS BLOUNT

Boros Blount is an old man. But Kevan noticed he’s been looking very sick. Since Cersei planned before to leave Boros as the only Kingsguard available to Margaery if she chooses a trial by combat, I think she is preparing him to fail badly. Maybe she’s poisoning him, or giving him spoiled food to taste or just making him drink too much wine.

Either way, I think Boros Blount is not going to be required and will stay alive, but not for long.

KETTLEBLACK BROTHERS

Three Kettleblack are to face trial. For some reason, Cersei considered Osney chances, altought that it lost importance when she heard his brothers were arrested too. I don’t know why she considered it, provided that Osney is her accuser in the matter of the previous High Septon’s murder.

I imagine that Osney will die by Ser Robert Strong’ hands and Osfryd and Osmund will choose be sent to the wall, but they will never make it.

MARGAERY JUDGES

Three women will judge Margaery, “a maiden, a mother, and a crone”. There are too many possibilities, I have no ideia who could they be. But this seemed too important to skip.

 

Cersei’s post-trial plot

Cersei is only playing the quiet and submissive role. Of course the walk of shame traumatized her, but not to the point of pulling her claws, as Kevan thought.

I venture to say that this only caused the blooming of a Cersei that no one knew: subtle, introverted and solemn. A Cersei that Tommen seems to like (“The king seemed happier than Kevan Lannister had seen him in a long time”).

Kevan was intentionally ignoring the fact that, beneath her apparent repentance, she still has bouts of rage (throwing wine in his face), makes covert aggressions (about him having used her walk as a means of "putting a woman in her place") and despises the common people (baths four or five times a day)

I have the impression that Cersei will discreetly try to gather noble children and noble women at the Red Keep (where there are Kingsguards and several Lannister guardsmen) to use them against their families (as hostages, if needed be) and make her demands.

The following quotes gave me that impression:

• aDwD, Epilogue:

But once my innocence is proved, it would please me if Taena Merryweather might attend me once again. She could bring her son to court. Tommen needs other boys about him, friends of noble birth.”

“Your wife … do you mean to bring her to court?”

[Kevan speaking] “There are … there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle.”

 

There are some other issues that still intrigue me and I hope to be able to write in more detail later.

[The Sleeper]

The High Sparrow ahs very good reason for finding both Margaery and Cersei. Cersei in Tommen's name passed the law that allowed the Faith and she conceded the right to the High Sparrow to pass judgement ot royalty. He can't find Cersei guilty without bringing the legitimacy of these into question.

Margaery is popular and Mace will butcher him and his followers if something happens to her. So, that's pretty good motivation in on itself.

As far ser Harrys goes, Cersei could very well be nominally in a position of power and more importantly Harrys could very well have left in a hurry to avoid the shrapnel, particularly as he had a very good reason for it.

The problem with the IB is not only the Crown's debts. It is also the fact that they have called in all loanes in Westeros and refuse new ones. This can effectively cripple all economy. They need to treat with them even if Cersei chooses to repay with Lannister gold.

[Curled Finger]

Really enlightening discussion.  I've not seen Ser Robert Strong mentioned here.   His job description is to basically mete out Cersei's vengeance.   There are only 4 Kingsguard left and this includes Greg--I mean Robert Strong.   Qyburn has seen to Cersei's continued power.   He has nothing without her, though his most outspoken detractor seems to be silenced permanently now.   He's got some wicked weird stuff going on in the dungeons.   These activities don't appear to have ceased despite Cersei's absence.   I think Cersei does have at least Qyburn and Strong supporting her rule.   They actually need her to be calling the shots.   

What says Varys' killing spree is done in the epilogue?  A few more arrows takes out the ruling lord, the queen and major commander of the Reach.  2 more take out Tommen and Ser Pounce.  Varys is angling to pave the way for Aegon, why not do it in the easiest manner?  Pit Aegon against Cersei and there is no contest.   Varys is another one supporting Cersei's rule.  He needs this to happen. 

No, I don't think it's likely Varys will go all mass killer, but there is a plan behind everything Varys does and he needs Cersei to be queen.  I am certain he's got more subtle machinations in place for Cersei's return to power.  Varys may be the one to blow up the Sept thereby eliminating many obstacles to Cersei's reemergence.  Or something...I would like to read a conversation between Varys and Qyburn.

There are some interesting ideas about Randyll Tarly's loyalty to the Tyrells.   If he's got Marge in his charge, why not take off straight to Aegon with her?  I'm all for some Arienne vs Marge fighting over Aegon.  

Cersei's still got some low down good for nothing mean girl stuff to do.  

[aryagonnakill#2]

On ‎11‎/‎16‎/‎2016 at 0:52 AM, Curled Finger said:

Really enlightening discussion.  I've not seen Ser Robert Strong mentioned here.   His job description is to basically mete out Cersei's vengeance.   There are only 4 Kingsguard left and this includes Greg--I mean Robert Strong.   Qyburn has seen to Cersei's continued power.   He has nothing without her, though his most outspoken detractor seems to be silenced permanently now.   He's got some wicked weird stuff going on in the dungeons.   These activities don't appear to have ceased despite Cersei's absence.   I think Cersei does have at least Qyburn and Strong supporting her rule.   They actually need her to be calling the shots.   

What says Varys' killing spree is done in the epilogue?  A few more arrows takes out the ruling lord, the queen and major commander of the Reach.  2 more take out Tommen and Ser Pounce.  Varys is angling to pave the way for Aegon, why not do it in the easiest manner?  Pit Aegon against Cersei and there is no contest.   Varys is another one supporting Cersei's rule.  He needs this to happen. 

No, I don't think it's likely Varys will go all mass killer, but there is a plan behind everything Varys does and he needs Cersei to be queen.  I am certain he's got more subtle machinations in place for Cersei's return to power.  Varys may be the one to blow up the Sept thereby eliminating many obstacles to Cersei's reemergence.  Or something...I would like to read a conversation between Varys and Qyburn.

There are some interesting ideas about Randyll Tarly's loyalty to the Tyrells.   If he's got Marge in his charge, why not take off straight to Aegon with her?  I'm all for some Arienne vs Marge fighting over Aegon.  

Cersei's still got some low down good for nothing mean girl stuff to do.  

Now that is interesting... Of the caches of wildfire found by the pyromancers when Cersei and then Tyrion hired them to make tons of it, no stash under the red keep was mentioned.  Then there is Tyrion and Varys escape.  They come to a room where Varys instructs him to put out the fire saying he would not want to see what was there, it is entirely possible the room was filled with wildfire and Varys did not want a torch near it.

[Whitering]

Ya, I think Cersei has to be back in Power and the Tyrells out of the way for Danny's vision to come to pass. Only in a Cersei dominated KL can we have cheering crowds when Aegon rides into town. The Tyrells are beloved, the gratitude the KL pop had when they first rode into town was not feigned given that it had been preceded by weeks worth of food deliveries.

Marge is also out and bout endearing herself to the populace right up until being seized by the Faith, we'll see how that goes, but I can't see the Tyrells sticking around and a civil disturbance that would lead to the crowds cheering for Aegon.

[Ckram]

7 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

it is entirely possible the room was filled with wildfire and Varys did not want a torch near it.

Entirely possible.

[Curled Finger]

9 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Now that is interesting... Of the caches of wildfire found by the pyromancers when Cersei and then Tyrion hired them to make tons of it, no stash under the red keep was mentioned.  Then there is Tyrion and Varys escape.  They come to a room where Varys instructs him to put out the fire saying he would not want to see what was there, it is entirely possible the room was filled with wildfire and Varys did not want a torch near it.

Ah very nice catch!  I didn't remember at all until you brought it up.   Ah that nutty Varys.

[Ckram]

On 17/11/2016 at 4:28 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

no stash under the red keep was mentioned.

Found this:

• aSoS, Jaime V:

"[...] So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself."

[aryagonnakill#2]

9 hours ago, Ckram said:

Found this:

• aSoS, Jaime V:

"[...] So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself."

Ya that's the stash I was referring to.  In ACOK's the pyromancers find several of these caches and add them to the pots they are making for Tyrion, but they don't mention finding the stash under the Red Keep, so it is probably still there.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

@Ckram there is no motive for Qyburn to kill Pycelle and Kevan. After all, he is in team Lannister, like them.

On 16/11/2016 at 7:52 AM, Curled Finger said:

There are some interesting ideas about Randyll Tarly's loyalty to the Tyrells.   If he's got Marge in his charge, why not take off straight to Aegon with her?  I'm all for some Arienne vs Marge fighting over Aegon. 

Randyll has vowed to bring Margaery for her trial. If Mace declares her innocent without trial (which has good possibilities to happen), Tarly will appear as an oathbreaker and this will increase his enmity to Mace.

Cersei's opinion is that:

Cersei I (DWD): False friends, treacherous servants, men who had professed undying love, even her own blood … all of them had deserted her in her hour of need. Osney Kettleblack, that weakling, had broken beneath the lash, filling the High Sparrow’s ears with secrets he should have taken to his grave. His brothers, scum of the streets whom she had raised high, did no more than sit upon their hands. Aurane Waters, her admiral, had fled to sea with the dromonds she had built for him. Orton Merryweather had gone running back to Longtable, taking his wife, Taena, who had been the queen’s one true friend in these terrible times. Harys Swyft and Grand Maester Pycelle had abandoned her to captivity and offered the realm to the very men who had conspired against her. Meryn Trant and Boros Blount, the king’s sworn protectors, were nowhere to be found. Even her cousin Lancel, who once had claimed to love her, was one of her accusers. Her uncle had refused to help her rule when she would have made him the King’s Hand. 
And Jaime … No, that she could not believe, would not believe. Jaime would be here once he knew of her. 

I think she is playing the role of the submissive, pious woman but is thinking her revenge. I found this interesting too from the same chapter:

"And her accusers?” the queen demanded. “Who holds them?” 
  “Osney Kettleblack and the Blue Bard are here, beneath the sept. The Redwyne twins have been declared innocent, and Hamish the Harper has died. The rest are in the dungeons under the Red Keep, in the charge of your man Qyburn.” 
  Qyburn, thought Cersei. That was good, one straw at least that she could clutch. Lord Qyburn had them, and Lord Qyburn could do wonders. And horrors. He can do horrors as well. 

Pycelle is now dead and can't recall his claim about the moon tea. If Qyburn manipulates them to speak against Margaery, then she is doomed.

 

[Curled Finger]

2 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

@Ckram there is no motive for Qyburn to kill Pycelle and Kevan. After all, he is in team Lannister, like them.

Randyll has vowed to bring Margaery for her trial. If Mace declares her innocent without trial (which has good possibilities to happen), Tarly will appear as an oathbreaker and this will increase his enmity to Mace.

Cersei's opinion is that:

Cersei I (DWD): False friends, treacherous servants, men who had professed undying love, even her own blood … all of them had deserted her in her hour of need. Osney Kettleblack, that weakling, had broken beneath the lash, filling the High Sparrow’s ears with secrets he should have taken to his grave. His brothers, scum of the streets whom she had raised high, did no more than sit upon their hands. Aurane Waters, her admiral, had fled to sea with the dromonds she had built for him. Orton Merryweather had gone running back to Longtable, taking his wife, Taena, who had been the queen’s one true friend in these terrible times. Harys Swyft and Grand Maester Pycelle had abandoned her to captivity and offered the realm to the very men who had conspired against her. Meryn Trant and Boros Blount, the king’s sworn protectors, were nowhere to be found. Even her cousin Lancel, who once had claimed to love her, was one of her accusers. Her uncle had refused to help her rule when she would have made him the King’s Hand. 
And Jaime … No, that she could not believe, would not believe. Jaime would be here once he knew of her. 

I think she is playing the role of the submissive, pious woman but is thinking her revenge. I found this interesting too from the same chapter:

"And her accusers?” the queen demanded. “Who holds them?” 
  “Osney Kettleblack and the Blue Bard are here, beneath the sept. The Redwyne twins have been declared innocent, and Hamish the Harper has died. The rest are in the dungeons under the Red Keep, in the charge of your man Qyburn.” 
  Qyburn, thought Cersei. That was good, one straw at least that she could clutch. Lord Qyburn had them, and Lord Qyburn could do wonders. And horrors. He can do horrors as well. 

Pycelle is now dead and can't recall his claim about the moon tea. If Qyburn manipulates them to speak against Margaery, then she is doomed.

 

I think you're absolutely right.   Cersei could skirt everything she has coming--for a while at any rate.   I don't have a real opinion about Randyll Tarly's loyalties or motives, but there are some interesting ideas about him joining Aegon.   Mace be damned.   Personally, I think that would be a blast to read, but I think Randyll commanding anything amidst the utter chaos to come would be a lot of fun to read, too.   What I would really like is for Randyll to have to watch over Cersei.    

I like Marg.   It took a long time to get there, but she has become a character I hope survives all this crap Cersei has piled on her.  But Randyll Tarly has some tough times in front of him.   I would still like to see Cersei's trial and Marg's too.   Read that drama mount and enjoy Cersei's unease and plots and general madness.  Still, I think this High Sparrow is a force to be reckoned with and no one knows how Lancel will feel about his pops being killed.    Oh yeah, this is going to be great reading.   

[Ckram]

14 hours ago, Endymion I Targaryen said:

@Ckram there is no motive for Qyburn to kill Pycelle and Kevan. After all, he is in team Lannister, like them.

I'm just guessing. Yet, I don't think a real motive would be needed.

As Varys said, three shall be the suspects: Tyrells, Cersei and the Dornishmen. Since the Dornishmen haven't yet reached King's Landing and Cersei cannot be framed (as well as Trant and Blount), the Tyrells (and Tarly) are the ones that will need alibis or, ultimately, a scapegoat.

Right now, Harys Swyft and Qyburn seems to be the last important Lannister loyalists there are left in King's Landing. While Swyft "is a weak man whom Cersei could use as a hostage against her uncle", Qyburn is disgraced former maester who rode with Vargo Hoat and that took "Varys's place in the small council, as well as the same honorary title of 'Lord ', to the disgust of Grand Maester Pycelle". Besides, after Cersei was arrested by the Faith, Pycelle and Swyft invited Kevan to assume the regency and dismissed Qyburn from the small council.

Thus the Tyrells could claim that Qyburn either acted on Cersei's behalf against the people who deposed her or on his own against the people who dismissed him from the small council and withdrew his "Lord" title. Or they shall make some other similar silly allegation.