If Renly won what would happen to Shireen, Davos and Joffrey's Kingsguard

[Universal Sword Donor]

And let it not be thought I'm trying to whitewash Renly. He clearly had his cruel japes and things that made him less than a great person. I just find it bizarre that anyone isn't going to accept it at face value he is the worst because he didn't want to be murdered by Cersei when it's laid out clearly to us.

[Nyrhex]

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

1. Then you get back to why Renly wants to replace Cersei in the first place. Is it because he wants to reward his lover's family, piss off the Lannisters, or both? Solely rewarding his lover's family couldn't be it. Tywin is the richest man in the seven kingdoms and the crown owes him 3 million dragons. Setting aside a queen is no easy feat in most cases and setting aside Tywin's golden daughter won't be easy either.  However if Renly moves to do both because he wants to reward his lover and remove a threat on his life. And, once again, Cersei is planning on murdering all the Baratheon brothers. It's right there in her POV.

2. No it means Renly is more intent on his survival than trying to gain anything. He does that three times: once with Margaery to Robert, once to Ned, and once with the Reach alliance and marriage. I'm not whitewashing Renly of the plotting. I'm just saying it's because he thinks Cersei wants him dead, not because he wants solely to reward his lover or gain power by proxy. Renly doesn't want to kill Cersei. He wants her to not kill him. Huge difference.

3. No one made preparations for Robert dying. Hell even Cersei was scrambling. She had to bribe Janos Slynt to save her butt and that would have been immaterial if Ned had listened to Renly or listened to LF. The only person who "prepared" for the Wo5K was Tywin.  Yes Renly's strategy is to bully everyone -- cow might be a better term -- into accepting him on the throne. That isn't remotely controversial. He says as much directly to Catelyn:

“Robert won the throne with his warhammer.” “Well, there is my claim, as good as Robert’s ever was.”

Stannis was a complete mystery until he sent out that proclamation, which was well after 

 

4. No Robb went west to draw Tywin west. That was always the goal. Tywin can't defend the capital if he's chasing Robb. That leaves KL wide open for Renly (later Stannis) to besiege and take it. It's in the Catelyn chapter where Robb comes back to RR.

5. Not ignore entirely but he was farther off and Tywin had enough ships and men to *threaten* the capital if not take it. But yes, he engages Dorne to keep Myrcella safe and threaten Renly's rear, which he has more than enough men to defend.

6. His strategy failed because of a shadow baby. Where and how did he fail elsewise? Something that no one had seen in Westeros, maybe ever, ended his short reign.

7. He cares enough about them to mention them as potential, if not active, enemies at his post GF war council:

“ Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm’s End are calling their banners.”

Granted this is before Renly crowns himself, but he goes on to say he's in between three armies if he stays at the GF, and that's why he moves to Harrenhal.  He is talking about Robb, Roose, and Renly. 

1. Why can't it only be to reward his lover's family? It has plenty of precedent in both our history and in that of Westeros. You are creating this false image of Cersei wanting to kill Renly without reason out of thin air. The quote is clearly well after Renly is already plotting to remove her and place her children in risk. Do you want civil wars with dead children? Because that's how you get civil wars with dead children. 

Cersei's remarks regarding Stannis and Renly make perfect sense if the one is a risk that she and her lover/brother would die for treason and her children would be at risk, and if the other is plotting to replace her with another and would also end up placing her children at risk.

2. No, that was already debunked. Renly starts plotting first, worries about Cersei later. You can try and play it as if he was always worried about her all you like, it won't make it so. 

3. While I agree that Tywin made more preparations than Renly, and I would also argue that he was behind the hit on Robert exactly becasue he was about to launch a war, you are the one who made the claim that Renly has made many preparations. Prove it. The sum total of Renly's preparations was maybe a couple of weeks of stocking provisions for the road, and coming up with the failed strategy of going at a snail's pace and hoping that most of the fighting would already happen and everyone would join him because he is awesome and all he'll have to do is deal with the weakened winner.

Dorne ignores him and allies itself to the Lannisters, Robb refuses to bend the knee to him and is crowned KITN, Balon declares independence just before he hears of Renly's death, Lysa keeps the knights of the Vale home, and Renly himself admits that he read of Stannis' proclemation back in Horn Hill. Open a map, look at where Horn Hill is, and where is Bitterbridge. Renly was just starting his campaign when he learns that Stanins has declared himself king, and yet Renly later boasts to Catelyn that Stannis would side with him in a classic bluff. The hardest part of getting investors is getting the first one. Renly bluffs that he already has Dorne and Stannis in the bag, and Robb would do well to join him as well. But he already knows full well that Stannis is not on his side, and he does not even bother to deal with the Dornish. 

4. No, that is an anachronistic lie Robb later makes to guilt-trip Edmure into accepting a deal he has refused before and marry a Frey girl because Robb couldn't keep it in his pants.

Let's go over the timeline and I'll debunk this lie. Again:

* ACOK starts with Robb and Catelyn in Riverrun. The Blackfish brings news that a new Lannister host is forming in the Westerlands, and it is feared that Tywin would wait in Harrnehal while living off of the Riverlands, and only march later with another host in tandem to destroy Robb. Catelyn thinks that Robb should deal with Renly to draw Tywin's attention while Robb deals with this new host.

* Robb sends Catelyn to deal with Renly.

* Robb marches west, leaving Edmure and the Riverlords behind, only taking the Frey Cavalry because after the alliance at the Twins they are part of the Northern host. Theon is sent to the Iron Islands to treat with Balon.

* Catelyn arrives at Bitterbridge, deals with Renly, news of Stannis arrive, they ride to Storm's End.

* Robb passes around the Golden Tooth using a goat pass, and wins at Oxcross.

* Renly and Catelyn arrive at Storm's End. Deal with Stannis. Renly orders Catelyn remain and watch how he deals with rebels, after informing her that his offer is merely that Robb is allowed to keep the style of KITN, but would have to bend the knee or be forced to do so.

* Renly dies, Catelyn and Brienne flee, Stannis offers Storm's End two weeks to consider his offer. Penrose sends birds to Robb and Joffrey, offering to bend the knee to either if they send aid. 

* Tyrion and Tywin wager that Stannis would not easily take Storm's End. Tyrion hopes he will have enough time to finish the chain, and Tywin marches west to destroy Robb before Stannis is free to move again.

* Catelyn arrives at Riverrun, where she hears of Robb's victory, the loot he is sending back to the Riverlands, and that he split his host into task forces to raid and pillage while he is marching on the Crag. Catelyn is told that Robb had left Edmure with orders to "guard his (Robb's) rear". When arriving at Riverrun she sees the dead bodies of the false envoys sent by Tyrion to release Jaime. Roose has been ordered by Edmure to retake Harrnehal.

* Three days later the Battle of the Fords starts. Riverrun gets a letter from Lord Meadows, the new castellan of Storm's End, informing them that the castle has surrendered to Stannis Baratheon after the death of Ser Penrose, and that they have accepted the king's pardon. Stannis is now free to march on the capital. Catelyn wishes to inform Robb, but is told he is outside reach of raven and at last word he was marching on the Crag.

* Robb takes the Crag, is injured and is treated by Jeyen Westerling. 

* Battle of the Fords ends, Catelyn hears of the attack of the Ironborn, the fall of Winterfell and the deaths of Bran and Rickon. Releases Jaime. A day later news arrives from the Crag. Robb, heartbroken over the deaths of his brothers, takes comfort from his caretaker, beds her, and weds her to protect her honor. The Freys abandon Robb's cause as he has broken the deal.

* Edmure returns from the battlefield, informs Catelyn that he has placed a bounty on Jaime, as even if she was trusting the same imp who sent false envoys to honor his word, a battle took place at the capital. Stannis was defeated, and Tyrion was among the fallen.

* Robb returns to Riverrun with his new wife. In a display of a mummer's skills that impresses Catelyn, he handwaves her treason and get's Catelyn to accept that we do stupid things for love. Catelyn realises that he married the Westerling girl, and right away calls out that he has lost the Freys, which gets a small reaction of Robb to that breaks his facade. This was not worth it, not one bit. The loss of the Freys was a catastrophy, made worse by the fact that the Lannisters are now joined by the power of Highgarden.

* Robb goes on about how he fucked up, and maybe if Frey would be reasonable he could make it right again. Catelyn tells him that Frey is not reasonable, and that Robb knows that. Frey wanted a marriage to a king, any of Robb's lords won't do. But that is not right either, as Robb was the son of a lord paramount at the time of the deal, and Frey was making a deal for a marriage to a future lord paramount. He had no idea that Robb would be crowned. The Blackfish arrives and offers they take this to a more private setting.

* Once Robb, Catelyn, Edmure and the Blackfish are alone, the Blackfish starts with the attack on Edmure. Both he and Robb work in tandem to erode any resistance, and accuse Edmure of fucking up everything for everyone and basically losing the war because he is an idiot who could not read the stratigic map and they had this whole plan perfectly drawn up if only he had not fucked up.

* The order that was ealier "defend my rear" is now suddenly retconed to "hold Riverrun".

* The fact that Cat was sent to get Renly to draw Tywin south while Robb was dealing with the host in the west? Fogotton.

* The fact that all of Robb's news after the victory at Oxcross was that he was splitting his host to loot and pillage and sending Mormont with cattle to the ravaged Riverlands while he leads a portion of his host to take the Crag? "Looting? Me? How dare you imply that I am a common brigand!".

* The fact that Robb could not possibly know that Stannis had taken Storm's End and so could not have made a plan that is based on the fact that Stannis is free to attack the capital because that news only arrives when Tywin is already attacking Edmure's forces at the Battle of the Fords, and Robb would require a rider to inform him only days or a week later? Utterly ignored.

* The bold lie that Robb's plan is basically to outrun an enemy army in it's own land, where Tywin is free to use reserves and local forces to block his escape, and in the "unlikely" scenario that they are forced to fight they have found a perfect spot for a pitched battle against a foe at least 3 times thier numbers, again in it's own land but they would not know about it themselves because they suck and don't know thier own land, and Robb would be able to teleport there from any point he would be caught at in the Westerlands? Robb didn't even blink.

* And then, when Edmure, sure that his family won't lie to him and his lie-detector clearly not working, asks how can he make amends? "Oh I don't know, how about you marry a Frey girl? You know, that offer you kept refusing? Do this small thing for me and completely save my ass from my bad decisions and we are sqaure". 

Robb's "plan" is bullshit. If Renly was still alive Robb was still going to be in the West becuase that is what he was doing. He had no plan, he was pillaging the Westerlands because he lacked the strength to take any location of note (the Ironbron had opted to attack the North instead of aiding him in the Westerlands) and only knew that Renly is dead when he was marching on the Crag, and that Stannis is free to march on the capital when Tywin has already failed to cross into the Westerlands. It is completely anachronistic and full with logical fails and bold lies. All simply to get Edmure to agree to marry a Frey and save Robb's alliance with the Freys. He can't order him to do it, so he guilt-trips him to do it.

5. Tyrion ignored him completely. He was confidant that Renly would not even unlimber his siege engines and Tywin would be the hammer that breaks his host on the anvil that is the city's walls. FFS, even the funds and resources to arm and equipt the new City Watch was diverted to Tyrion's chain and wildfire. The city had no chance to stop even a minimal landfall of the enemy and so Tyrion banked on stopping Stannis at the waterfront. And Renly having more than enough men to defend against the Dornish is not the bloody point. The point is that he was sure that they would join him, reading the political map entirely backwards. The Dornish hate the Tyrells far more than they hate the Lannisters. A Tyrell queen goes completely against Doran's interests, blood feud be damned.

6. No, his strategy failed well before that and I think I have done more than enough to prove it. Shadowbaby just killed any chance that he could unfuck the clusterfuck of his own making because he was dead. 

7. Wait, your argument is that Tywin or Renly was expecting the Vale to join? Tywin ignored all possibility of the Vale or the Freys to join the Starks. Even when he hears of Frey banners in Robb's host a full day before the Battle of the Green Fork, he is surprised that Frey actually joined. He initially ignores Lysa as an option, and it is evident in the idiotic march to deal with Robb's army. If Robb slows down a bit and Tywin marches to meet him while a Vale army decends from the mountains behind him he is finished. He completely ignores them until he sees that he was too confidant. Renly was sure he could bully everyone to join him but he was far from a threat to the Vale anytime soon. 

And that is after Renly is crowned. In the same chapter it is said that news arrived that Renly has been crowned at Highgarden two weeks ago.

 

Quote

 

You are arguing Renly's actions were in a vaccum. I am telling you they were not and Cersei wanted to murder him. You keep ignoring that and saying "CERSEI FELT THREATENED". I get that. The armed bank robber doesn't get to complain if the cops shoot at him. Renly's actions are wrong to her but that's invalid in the first place. 

Come the fuck on, man (in your parlance). She straight up says she wants to kill Robert's brothers long before they were going to be a threat to her kids.

“Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

Robert was the post "brother murder" target, not the initial target. You literally can't argue that point unless you want to delve into "Cersei is an unreliable narrator" tack. You're welcome to do that on other topics. And once again, plotting to remove someone from court and a line of succession is a sight more defensible than murder, especially when we know that Renly suspected the Lannisters wanted him dead anyway, which he repeats twice and Cersei confirms. This is about as cut and dried as you can get. You can tell because of how divergent his two self defense plans are.

What to do the Tyrells gain from Ned being LP and Regent? Nothing. Renly gets to ensure that Cersei won't try to kill him.

The Tyrells definitely benefit from the removal of Cersei and the ascension of Marg, but it's diametric from plan B that Renly comes up with.

No, I am arguing that Renly wanting to replace Cersei has no relation to her children being twincest bastards, and so the aggressor here is Renly. I've proven already that your quote shows no such thing as Cersei wanting to murder him just because, and you keep insisting that it does. You are the one who repeats "RENLY FELT THREATENED" without proof. I get that as well.

But the armed bank robber does get to complain if the cop breaks into his house and shoots him. It has no relation, Renly was not plotting to replace Cersei because of her twincest trio, he was doing it for his lover. Your argument makes zero sense, as you are combining elements that are not related here.

And yes, Cersei says that she wanted to deal with Robert's brothers well after both were positioning themselves as threats to her and her children. The quote 100% does not support your interpretation.

“Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

Eddard Stark's continuation of Jon Arryn's investigation had forced her to get rid of Robert sooner than she would have liked, because she still wanted to deal with his "pestilential" brothers. This decision, in late 298 AL, would be at least a year after Renly started his plotting to replace her with Marg, and at least a year after Stannis has been seen tagging along with Jon Arryn for his investigation and fleeing to Dragonstone to do gods know what.

Come the fuck on, how are you reading this as "Cersei admits she is an evil bitch who just straight up wants to kill people for shits and giggles"?

Are you for real right now? Your argument is based on a false reading of a simple text, you have failed to grasp the meaning of the words you are reading. Your argument is now that a text means something it does not. You give it no context, you display it in a vaccum, "here, she says she wanted to kill Robert's brothers, and she only wanted to kill him later". What kind of an amateurish joke is this?

Again, if Renly managed to get Robert to put aside Cersei, he places her children in risk. Risk of losing thier position as Robert's heirs, but also risk of thier lives. Remember the Dance of the Dragons? How did that turn for the children of two wives?

I don't even have to justify this, I am not making a moral based argument. Leaving aside that Renly declaring himself king and promising Catelyn that he would give her Cersei's head for the crime of killing Ned for the exact coup attempt Renly suggested and the treason he is commiting, I don't have to argue that you have to feel threatened by something illegal or immoral to really feal you are threatened. Cersei felt threatened, a threat to her family's position, to her position, to her children's position, to her children's lives. Regardless of them being bastards or no, what mother wouldn't try and protect them?

This is as cut and dry as possible. Renly feels risk to his life after making himself a threat to Cersei. There is exactly zero proof that he was in any danger if he did not make a move against Cersei. Ned's injury takes a turn for the worse and Pycelle can't do anything about it. Stannis has an accident. Robert dies of old age or in his ~40s due to his unhealthy lifestyle, and Joffrey is seated on the Iron Throne and Renly is still the Master of Laws in his Small Council and Lord Paramount of the Stormlands. Because there is no bloody reason for Cersei to do anything with him. The more suspicious deaths the more questions are raised. She has a vested interest in just gritting her teeth and hoping that Robert dies sooner rather than later, why on earth would she be going on a killing spree when there is no threat? It makes no sense.

If you wish to further claim that Renly was already in danger from Cersei regardless of his plotting, please, bring forth proof. But try and make it a little better than misreading a quote in a vaccum and completely ignoring that it was said well after Renly has made the first move.

 

TL:DR

Thread derailment. 

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

I think Renly would marry Shireen to his son. Granted she would be older than his son, but who cares. It solves the problem without having to kill his neice and gives his grandchild a better claim. Renly would kill Joffrey and Tommen for sure. But again maybe Myrcella could be married off to someone. You guys are forgetting that women are basically treated as marriage pawns in this universe. It depends on what he considers Myrcella. He could even use her as a hostage to force the Westerlands to obey him. The Kingsguard? If any survive, I could see him sparing a few...maybe Arys since his mom was in his force. Isn't House Trant from the Stormlands...I cannot remember. I also think Renly could have somehow found a way for a piece with the Young Wolf, perhaps marrying Sansa Stark to Willas Tyrell as the Tyrells had planned before. Sansa could have actually been happy with the match and been used to negotiate Robb's surrender. They could have smashed Tywin Lannisters host between them.

[devilish]

17 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

He wouldn't have to. The war would be fought in the Riverlands and Robb is by far too honorable to abandon half his kingdom and retreat up north with his Northmen.

That Eddard Stark was loyal to Robert Baratheon is of little concern to Renly Baratheon. Renly rebelled against what he thought was Robert's son and heir without any more pretext than "I want the throne and I've got a big army!" and as part of his feud with the Lannisters. But I agree that Renly would want stability and let the Starks continue to be the Wardens of the North, but the way I see it, Eddard Stark's relation with Robert Baratheon does not mean squat for Renly Baratheon in his dealings with Robb Stark.

For the first part Renly does not rely on all positive emotions or he wouldn't have taken Catelyn as his captive when she came to parley. Renly isn't there to ask nicely about maybe if Robb Stark wants to come and play with him and as a king he would be foolish to go in too soft and give the impression that it will be all roses, sunshine and concessions to rebels. Its important to remember that while Robb and Renly have the same main enemy, the Lannisters, the two of them wants different things. Robb wants to break away and gain vengeance while Renly wants the Iron Throne and that means dominion over the North and Riverlands, as I am pretty sure that he also tells Catelyn. So what I essentially want to say is that if Renly can strike a peace with Robb that makes Robb hail Renly as his liege, then all is good and wonderful. But remember that Robb's bannermen have already rejected Renly in favor of separating themselves from the realm, so I don't know how well it will go down with the likes of Umber and Karstark that Robb is bending his knee to Renly. I could see Robb getting a serious degree of authority issues over that one.

Now your plan for Renly to handle Sansa has lots of merits to it so I can't naysay that aspect of the post. In fact is rather beautifully played as part of personal relations and feudal politics.

a- Ultimately the war will end up in the North. A defeated Robb would have to leave the Riverlands to their fate and take refuge in his lands. Renly will have to follow him there. If that can be avoided then Renly would be foolish not at least try giving Robb a way out of this king in the north madness. Dont forget that soon enough Lysa regency would end. What would happen if the Sweet Robin decides to answer to his cousin's call? The combined troops of Vale and North would be a threat especially in a war in the freezing North. 

b- Renly and Robb face a common enemy and as king he'll better start appreciating people who are honourable and loyal especially if they are the only people around who can administer the biggest region in your kingdom effectively. I am not saying that Robb won't have to bend the knee to Renly. All Im saying is that the King would probably try to help Robb in finding a way to get out of the king in the North mess without losing face in front of his own bannermen. It benefits both parties. The return of Eddard's bones, Ice, Joffrey's head to the Northern camp + an emotional meeting between Sansa and her family won't cost the crown anything. However, they are considered priceless for those living in that part of the world. Don't forget that one of the reasons why Robb's bannermen wanted him as king was because the Southern king doesn't even care of understanding their way. Well Renly would be scoring some points on that regard. Those points would add to the prospect of avoiding meeting that gigantic army in battle. I doubt Karstark and Umber are really that keen to die don't they? Dont forget that that their sons/heirs will also be riding to battle. 

Robb won't be the first king in the North to kneel and I believe that with careful diplomacy that can be easily achieved. Actually it benefits both party. Robb would feel that he had contributed in bringing justice to the realm (he'll probably behead Jamie at that point to boost his wounded ego) and can now focus on settling his score with long lost friend Theon. Renly will bring the North and Riverlands back to the fold and with some little help (ie ships) he'll soon have the iron islands tackled too without even the need to move his army there. 

 

[Batbob45]

For Joffrey's kingsguard-Renly would get rid of the useless ones. since Sandor hate Joffrey anyway, he might switch to Renly's side and be a guard for him.

He might do nothing to Davos since Renly might not see him as a threat.

Tommen and Myrcella- Have Tommen become squire to Loras.  If Renly can have House Martell swear fealty for him then, Myrcella can stay at Dorne but be House Martell's ward.

The thing with Renly is that he seem not to have any love for his family. He also is not above killing kids(he agree with killing a pregnant Dany".

Shireen-Even thought Renly has not been a great uncle to her(use her in a joke about Stannis), I don't see him harming her. He might let her live in Red Keep with Sandor as her guard(If Sandor can be nice to Tomman and Myrcella, then he can be nice with Shireen). Renly could also have House Tyrell take Shireen. She is better off in Renly's care than near Melisandre.

[Universal Sword Donor]

13 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

<snip>

I fear I disagree as violently with your "interpretation" of this as much as your take on Imry's battle plan for Blackwater. We'll make no headway here.

[Lion of the West]

5 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I think Renly would marry Shireen to his son. Granted she would be older than his son, but who cares. It solves the problem without having to kill his neice and gives his grandchild a better claim. Renly would kill Joffrey and Tommen for sure. But again maybe Myrcella could be married off to someone. You guys are forgetting that women are basically treated as marriage pawns in this universe. It depends on what he considers Myrcella. He could even use her as a hostage to force the Westerlands to obey him. The Kingsguard? If any survive, I could see him sparing a few...maybe Arys since his mom was in his force. Isn't House Trant from the Stormlands...I cannot remember. I also think Renly could have somehow found a way for a piece with the Young Wolf, perhaps marrying Sansa Stark to Willas Tyrell as the Tyrells had planned before. Sansa could have actually been happy with the match and been used to negotiate Robb's surrender. They could have smashed Tywin Lannisters host between them.

First I'd like to say that I from a dynastic perspective I can agree with that marrying Shireen to Renly's heir could be a good idea. The problem I see with keeping Shireen alive and at court is that she's a constant reminder to people that Renly effectively came to power by usurping Stannis. I think that would undermine Renly's legitimacy and also be a hint for men that what Renly did, they can also do. As such I would imagine that passing Shireen off to a motherhouse or arrange for her to choke on a piece of pie, would be miore beneficient for Renly, even as the later suggestion would be reprehensible.

4 hours ago, devilish said:

a- Ultimately the war will end up in the North. A defeated Robb would have to leave the Riverlands to their fate and take refuge in his lands. Renly will have to follow him there. If that can be avoided then Renly would be foolish not at least try giving Robb a way out of this king in the north madness. Dont forget that soon enough Lysa regency would end. What would happen if the Sweet Robin decides to answer to his cousin's call? The combined troops of Vale and North would be a threat especially in a war in the freezing North. 

You are right that if Robb continued to be really stubborn it might come to an invasion of the North. You do however make several assumptions that I don't think are true.

For the first part leaving the Riverlands won't be an easy thing and will hurt Robb's authority like a ton of bricks. Those Riverlords are his bannermen and the Tullys are his kin, and he now leaves them to their fate in order to save himself. I dion't think that will come across as very inspiring leadership.

To this comes that as Robb retreats North, he'll find Moat Cailin overrun with Ironmen and Ironmen reaving along the costs. Because remember that Balon will invade regardless and Renly will most likely turn his overwhelming army north into the Riverlands before Euron can divert the Ironmen towards the Reach. And we know how hard it was for the Boltons to break though a skeleton garrison. Imagine how how it will be for Robb to break an actual army position there? And no, given that Renly would be able to call the Redwynes when Hobber and Horas are liberated, a transport by sea won't be likely. So then when, or if, Robb finally returns to the North he'll have to clear the house of Ironmen and when I think about it, I really don't see why Renly would have to invade straight away. He can wait untill spring and consolidate his power in the South before directing his energies towards the North after spring has arrived.

As I see it Robb will not have much strength left to stand on between his losses in the South, the ravaging of Ramsay and the Ironmen and then followed by a winter, followed by a massed invasion from the South. I don't think Robb has resources to remain victorious after these many cuts. And to that add his inept political skills. Even when he was a victorious warlord striving from victory to victory he lost the Karstarks and Freys while Bolton could play him like a fiddle and arrange for the removal of many people Roose wanted gone. And now he will be the defeated man running for his life and beset by enemies all around. I rather simply don't think that he will be able to keep things together, and Roose might do him in in exchange for a wardenship from Renly instead of Tywin.

In regards to the Vale, sure they could absolutely be a problem. But given how Robb has in this scenario retreated north, the two armies will be cut off from each other and Renly can deal with them in turn since he'll have a vastly greater navy to ensure that no troop transports go between Gulltown and White Harbor. So if the reinforcements from the Vale are to make any real difference,beyond dragging things out, then Robb will need to stay in the Riverlands where the Valemen can reinforce him and the Rivermen can boost his strength. But which also leaves Robb exposed to Renly's great host.

4 hours ago, devilish said:

b- Renly and Robb face a common enemy and as king he'll better start appreciating people who are honourable and loyal especially if they are the only people around who can administer the biggest region in your kingdom effectively. I am not saying that Robb won't have to bend the knee to Renly. All Im saying is that the King would probably try to help Robb in finding a way to get out of the king in the North mess without losing face in front of his own bannermen. It benefits both parties. The return of Eddard's bones, Ice, Joffrey's head to the Northern camp + an emotional meeting between Sansa and her family won't cost the crown anything. However, they are considered priceless for those living in that part of the world.

 

The initial enemy is the same for both, I agree. But I don't see why Renly should appreciate Robb for being honorable and loyal which can  be debated. For the first thing Robb has never done anything honorable or loyal towards Renly. He was rather happy to see himself take a crown than support Renly and he propsed to split the realm with Renly through his envoy. There really isn't many reasons for Renly to take lenient hand with Robb based on Robb's ethos.

Making things sweet with the Starks could well work. But for Renly's sake Robb must understand that it isn't the Starks isn't an equal partner, but a junior bowing down before a stronger partner.

4 hours ago, devilish said:

Don't forget that one of the reasons why Robb's bannermen wanted him as king was because the Southern king doesn't even care of understanding their way. Well Renly would be scoring some points on that regard. Those points would add to the prospect of avoiding meeting that gigantic army in battle. I doubt Karstark and Umber are really that keen to die don't they? Dont forget that that their sons/heirs will also be riding to battle.

Part of the reason that the Northmen made Robb king was that they never cared for anyone who wasn't from their special region. Neither Renly, Robert or Stannis ever did any harm to the North to that point and still they were rejected because they were essentially foreigners to the Northmen and the Northmen didn't want a "damn foreigner". I don't think we need to sugercoat the reasons behind their separatism.

4 hours ago, devilish said:

Robb won't be the first king in the North to kneel and I believe that with careful diplomacy that can be easily achieved. Actually it benefits both party. Robb would feel that he had contributed in bringing justice to the realm (he'll probably behead Jamie at that point to boost his wounded ego) and can now focus on settling his score with long lost friend Theon. Renly will bring the North and Riverlands back to the fold and with some little help (ie ships) he'll soon have the iron islands tackled too without even the need to move his army there.

Again I don't see the need for this. There's no reason for Renly to give Robb space as an equal partner because the outcome isn't between peers. It about Robb bending his knee to a far more powerful lord and accpting that lord as his liege. Any notion of trying to use arms against Renly must be dispelled from Robb's mind unless Renly fancies to style himself as a weak king.

[Equilibrium]

Honestly I think Renly is generally nice guy (Stannis grids jaw and murmurs about my head on a pike)

He is a dick for cutting line of inheritance, but I doubt he would be vindictive or cruel. Davos would probably remain if not lord, than knight with his lands, Kingsguard would be pardoned, most severe possible punishment being the Wall (I think he would even allow Jaime this), and since they are already in celibate military order forbidden to hold land, it really isn't that much of a punishment.

Shireen would be promptly married to Willas Tyrell and that would be that, Tyrells would angle for having back-up Tyrell claimant if Renly doesn't produce a heir, even than Shireen would be more secure claim than child of known gay guy (nobles would think it isn't his and dispute the right). So Shireen is more useful alive than dead.

[Lion of the West]

16 minutes ago, Equilibrium said:

Honestly I think Renly is generally nice guy (Stannis grids jaw and murmurs about my head on a pike)

He is a dick for cutting line of inheritance, but I doubt he would be vindictive or cruel. Davos would probably remain if not lord, than knight with his lands, Kingsguard would be pardoned, most severe possible punishment being the Wall (I think he would even allow Jaime this), and since they are already in celibate military order forbidden to hold land, it really isn't that much of a punishment.

Shireen would be promptly married to Willas Tyrell and that would be that, Tyrells would angle for having back-up Tyrell claimant if Renly doesn't produce a heir, even than Shireen would be more secure claim than child of known gay guy (nobles would think it isn't his and dispute the right). So Shireen is more useful alive than dead.

That's a very interesting idea and would play in well with the Tyrells being the power-behind-the-throne in regards to Renly.

[WSmith84]

On 10/5/2016 at 0:40 PM, LionoftheWest said:

Part of the reason that the Northmen made Robb king was that they never cared for anyone who wasn't from their special region. Neither Renly, Robert or Stannis ever did any harm to the North to that point and still they were rejected because they were essentially foreigners to the Northmen and the Northmen didn't want a "damn foreigner". I don't think we need to sugercoat the reasons behind their separatism.

I would argue that the Northmen had reasons beyond mere nationalism. Within the last 20 years, 3 different royals have seriously screwed over the Starks with little in the way of recompense. Rhaegar 'kidnapped' Lyanna (kidnapping or not, it was a slight on the North's honour) and she winds up dead. Aerys murders Rickard and Brandon and tries to murder Ned too. The North won that particular fight, and got... the status quo? Not much recompense, not even vengeance (Jaime killed Aerys, after all). Then Joffrey goes and murders Ned as well. Is it any wonder that the North got a little tired of the Iron Throne and felt that maybe going their own way would work out better? Obviously their were other, selfish motivations at play, but I'd argue that the Northerners had some pretty reasonable motives too.

[Batbob45]

On 10/5/2016 at 1:29 PM, Equilibrium said:

Honestly I think Renly is generally nice guy (Stannis grids jaw and murmurs about my head on a pike)

 

would a nice guy mock Shireen and Brienne and block a road which  cause smallfolks to suffer. I don't hold mocking Joffrey against Renly because mocking Joffrey is always funny.

 

[Lion of the West]

25 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

I would argue that the Northmen had reasons beyond mere nationalism. Within the last 20 years, 3 different royals have seriously screwed over the Starks with little in the way of recompense. Rhaegar 'kidnapped' Lyanna (kidnapping or not, it was a slight on the North's honour) and she winds up dead. Aerys murders Rickard and Brandon and tries to murder Ned too. The North won that particular fight, and got... the status quo? Not much recompense, not even vengeance (Jaime killed Aerys, after all). Then Joffrey goes and murders Ned as well. Is it any wonder that the North got a little tired of the Iron Throne and felt that maybe going their own way would work out better? Obviously their were other, selfish motivations at play, but I'd argue that the Northerners had some pretty reasonable motives too.

Well, I think that's a very Starkcentric view of the matter and I would say also wrong.

For the first thing, the North got more than status quo returned. Rhaegar was killed by Eddard's best friend and the Targaryens toppled from their throne and Eddard's best friend installed on it. That's some serious payback if you ask me. To say that Rhaegar's and Aerys' deaths don't count make no sense as the rebellion was always a team effort and the rebel team secured pretty much all their objectives save Lyanna which would have topped it off with Eddard's best friend on the throne and his sister as queen. But you can't have everything.

In regards to Joffrey its true that the North was dealt a blow, but the problem there wasn't that what Joffrey did was wrong, it was that someone that the Northmen liked got burned. Eddard publically confessed to being a traitor who conspired against Joffrey, who he publically acknowledged as his king, and the king gav the same punishment that has been handed down to traitors since ancient times; death. So to call it a murder is a gross misleading term. We know that Eddard knew Joffrey was the wrong heir but as far as everyone in the North knew Eddard was a traitor who got a traitor's death, and the fact that anyone dared lay hands on their beloved Lord Stark was cause for war, regardless of what this Lord Stark may have done before it. Only later did Joffrey's paternal lineage come to light.

[WSmith84]

11 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Well, I think that's a very Starkcentric view of the matter and I would say also wrong.

For the first thing, the North got more than status quo returned. Rhaegar was killed by Eddard's best friend and the Targaryens toppled from their throne and Eddard's best friend installed on it. That's some serious payback if you ask me. To say that Rhaegar's and Aerys' deaths don't count make no sense as the rebellion was always a team effort and the rebel team secured pretty much all their objectives save Lyanna which would have topped it off with Eddard's best friend on the throne and his sister as queen. But you can't have everything.

In regards to Joffrey its true that the North was dealt a blow, but the problem there wasn't that what Joffrey did was wrong, it was that someone that the Northmen liked got burned. Eddard publically confessed to being a traitor who conspired against Joffrey, who he publically acknowledged as his king, and the king gav the same punishment that has been handed down to traitors since ancient times; death. So to call it a murder is a gross misleading term. We know that Eddard knew Joffrey was the wrong heir but as far as everyone in the North knew Eddard was a traitor who got a traitor's death, and the fact that anyone dared lay hands on their beloved Lord Stark was cause for war, regardless of what this Lord Stark may have done before it. Only later did Joffrey's paternal lineage come to light.

Well, you're not wrong. But I would say that having 4 Starks killed by members of two different royal families (one of whom you helped to install) in <20 years is not a great track record for an institution. It's not a great mystery to me why some people might find that record unacceptable and want to sever ties with it. Admittedly, I think that the decision to go for independence was a foolish one, but understandable.

[Trigger Warning]

3 hours ago, Batbob45 said:

would a nice guy mock Shireen and Brienne and block a road which  cause smallfolks to suffer. I don't hold mocking Joffrey against Renly because mocking Joffrey is always funny.

 

 

I'm not saying Renly is a nice guy but I'd think it would be pretty hard to find anyone that hasn't made harsh comments about someone that didn't really deserve it, even against children at some point in their life. This is often held against Renly like he kicked her teeth in or something and Brienne is ridiculous in her society as well so that's not too bad either, it's not like he was cruel to her face like everyone else. 

I wouldn't say he's necessarily "nice" but he doesn't come across as cruel or needlessly brutal either, I'd say he's one of the more good natured characters we've seen to be honest.  

He'd be a moron if he were to supply his enemies.  

[Lion of the West]

9 hours ago, WSmith84 said:

Well, you're not wrong. But I would say that having 4 Starks killed by members of two different royal families (one of whom you helped to install) in <20 years is not a great track record for an institution. It's not a great mystery to me why some people might find that record unacceptable and want to sever ties with it. Admittedly, I think that the decision to go for independence was a foolish one, but understandable.

Yes, its a poor track record in how it all happened so relatively fast. And I can agree its understandable on an emotional level that they would seek to go their own way, but I also agree with you that it was very foolish.

[devilish]

On 05/10/2016 at 4:40 PM, LionoftheWest said:

First I'd like to say that I from a dynastic perspective I can agree with that marrying Shireen to Renly's heir could be a good idea. The problem I see with keeping Shireen alive and at court is that she's a constant reminder to people that Renly effectively came to power by usurping Stannis. I think that would undermine Renly's legitimacy and also be a hint for men that what Renly did, they can also do. As such I would imagine that passing Shireen off to a motherhouse or arrange for her to choke on a piece of pie, would be miore beneficient for Renly, even as the later suggestion would be reprehensible.

You are right that if Robb continued to be really stubborn it might come to an invasion of the North. You do however make several assumptions that I don't think are true.

For the first part leaving the Riverlands won't be an easy thing and will hurt Robb's authority like a ton of bricks. Those Riverlords are his bannermen and the Tullys are his kin, and he now leaves them to their fate in order to save himself. I dion't think that will come across as very inspiring leadership.

To this comes that as Robb retreats North, he'll find Moat Cailin overrun with Ironmen and Ironmen reaving along the costs. Because remember that Balon will invade regardless and Renly will most likely turn his overwhelming army north into the Riverlands before Euron can divert the Ironmen towards the Reach. And we know how hard it was for the Boltons to break though a skeleton garrison. Imagine how how it will be for Robb to break an actual army position there? And no, given that Renly would be able to call the Redwynes when Hobber and Horas are liberated, a transport by sea won't be likely. So then when, or if, Robb finally returns to the North he'll have to clear the house of Ironmen and when I think about it, I really don't see why Renly would have to invade straight away. He can wait untill spring and consolidate his power in the South before directing his energies towards the North after spring has arrived.

As I see it Robb will not have much strength left to stand on between his losses in the South, the ravaging of Ramsay and the Ironmen and then followed by a winter, followed by a massed invasion from the South. I don't think Robb has resources to remain victorious after these many cuts. And to that add his inept political skills. Even when he was a victorious warlord striving from victory to victory he lost the Karstarks and Freys while Bolton could play him like a fiddle and arrange for the removal of many people Roose wanted gone. And now he will be the defeated man running for his life and beset by enemies all around. I rather simply don't think that he will be able to keep things together, and Roose might do him in in exchange for a wardenship from Renly instead of Tywin.

In regards to the Vale, sure they could absolutely be a problem. But given how Robb has in this scenario retreated north, the two armies will be cut off from each other and Renly can deal with them in turn since he'll have a vastly greater navy to ensure that no troop transports go between Gulltown and White Harbor. So if the reinforcements from the Vale are to make any real difference,beyond dragging things out, then Robb will need to stay in the Riverlands where the Valemen can reinforce him and the Rivermen can boost his strength. But which also leaves Robb exposed to Renly's great host.

The initial enemy is the same for both, I agree. But I don't see why Renly should appreciate Robb for being honorable and loyal which can  be debated. For the first thing Robb has never done anything honorable or loyal towards Renly. He was rather happy to see himself take a crown than support Renly and he propsed to split the realm with Renly through his envoy. There really isn't many reasons for Renly to take lenient hand with Robb based on Robb's ethos.

Making things sweet with the Starks could well work. But for Renly's sake Robb must understand that it isn't the Starks isn't an equal partner, but a junior bowing down before a stronger partner.

Part of the reason that the Northmen made Robb king was that they never cared for anyone who wasn't from their special region. Neither Renly, Robert or Stannis ever did any harm to the North to that point and still they were rejected because they were essentially foreigners to the Northmen and the Northmen didn't want a "damn foreigner". I don't think we need to sugercoat the reasons behind their separatism.

Again I don't see the need for this. There's no reason for Renly to give Robb space as an equal partner because the outcome isn't between peers. It about Robb bending his knee to a far more powerful lord and accpting that lord as his liege. Any notion of trying to use arms against Renly must be dispelled from Robb's mind unless Renly fancies to style himself as a weak king.

That's one great post mate. WD.

There's no denying that Robb's credibility will take a big hit by leaving the Riverlands to their fate. Even if he does do that, it will be a big struggle for him to go back North and he'll probably lose most of his army doing that. I can see 3 events happening here

a- Robb bends the knee and he returns home

b- Robb bends the knee and he's taken hostage

c- Robb is killed

d- Robb escapes but in doing so, most of his army is wiped out.

Renly would have a problem with all of them.

The best option would be a. However there's no guarantee that next time Renly needs his Lord Paramount at his side, the North would answer his call. That’s a kind of a problem for him. Renly still need to bring most of Westeros to their knees (Tywin, Sweet Robin, Balon, Dorran etc) . The Westerlands are rich and heavily fortified. Sure Renly have the numbers but sieging castles is an expensive and casualties will be high. How long do you the think the Tyrells would support that? What would they ask in exchange?  How long would it take for Tywin to figure out that he might as well spend most of his dosh in hiring a faceless man and send the whole Renly thing, tits up? How long will it take for rebellious or even neutral Lord Paramount to figure out that this Renly guy is a bully, who will bring an era of war to their doorstep and it would be better for them to just gang with one another and get rid of him. The Baratheon short lived reign was too bloody after all, so they might either go independent or support the Targ girl, who got legitimacy to the crown, she would start everything with a clean sleet and most of all she’s got dragons.

Option B and C is actually worse. Option B will see an infuriated North rallying around a strong banner man (Roose? Karstark?) who  got all the motivation on earth to provoke Renly in removing Robb’s head to become the permanent leader. These people won’t be afraid to seal a deal with Tywin (enemy of my enemy is my friend) or even courting Danny if needed. If Robb’s die Roose can play the godfather’s role to gain power and who knows, even convince the Vale to help. The North is vast, wild, proud and cold. Winter is coming and armies will have to travel long distances, in the freezing north to siege castles. That would have a disastrous effect over Renly’s army especially if he’s not able to settle scores with Tywin, Dorne or the Vale first.

Renly has an enormous army but he lacks the numbers and the dragons to be Aegon. Most of his army is lent to him by daddy in law, who won’t be happy to bankroll his son in law’s expeditions up in the freezing North. Therefore he’ll have to close an eye and negotiate rather than go full ‘conqueror’ mode.  Sure Robb will have to bend his knee. However is it really wise to humiliate your future Lord Paramount and the only person capable of administrating your biggest region, who also happen to be a great general and is related to the Lord Paramount of the Reach and the Lord Paramount of the Vale?

 

 

[bent branch]

On ‎10‎/‎4‎/‎2016 at 10:23 AM, Nyrhex said:

Renly was never going to take down the Lannisters simply by taking the capital, and Tarly calls it out that it would be a long war. Even if he takes the capital and Joffrey and Tyrion and Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen yet live. And if Renly is alive then Tywin does not leave Harrenhal to destroy Robb in the Westerlands, and Renly also has to deal with him in battle for the capital. Tywin is no fool, if he sees the battle is lost he would cut his losses and retreat to the Westerlands with Tommen, and if possible Joffrey and Cersei and Tyrion and Lancel would also make it out of the city before Renly takes it. The only reason they are left in the city during the Blackwater is because Tywin is not at Harrenhal, the Riverlands are mostly back in Tully control, and there is a hostile Stark host in Harrenhal now which could try and intercept them. Even that is still weak reasoning why they could not simply ride out of the Old Gate/Gate of the Gods and make a B-line for the Westerlands across the Gold Road if they see that the battle turns south... Even if you fear that the Lion Gate would soon come under attack, the northern gates were still perfectly safe, the enemy was mainly on the riverbank.

From there the war would last for years while Lannister gold and reputation buys Red Weddings and sellswords.

This is the problem with these scenarios, people oftern make arbitrary starts. Renly is not going to simply attack the capital and knock out the Lannisters out of the war. He still has to deal with the Lannisters, the Starks and Tullys, the Greyjoys are also now independent, Lysa in the Vale would keep her knights home, and Doran would be luaghing his ass off, telling Oberyn that he was right and procrastination was the fastest way to getting everything you want. 

Renly may admire the way Robb could turn enemies into friends, but he sure as hell fucks it up both with Robb and with Stannis. The logical leap you've made there, that Renly would need to be merciful = Renly would be merciful, is kind of a big one. It's one thing to accept enemeis' surrendor and have them bend the knee and name you king. It is an entirely different matter to keep a claimant alive, after making so many enemies. 

You have changed the parameters of what I said. Of course, if you are not responding to what I said you can say I'm wrong until the cows come home. However, the OP stipulated that Renly was able to take the capital. My response was that if Renly had successfully taken the capital than he would have won the Crownlands and defeated the Lannisters.

The reason I say he would have defeated the Lannisters is based on the Lannisters at this point had only the Crownlands for allies and little chance of getting new allies. The Lannisters were at war at that point with the Reach, Riverlands, North, and Stormlands. The only other potential allies were Dorne and the Vale. The chances of making either of these regions allies was slim and none. So if Renly had taken the capital before the children had left, all he would have had to do to defeat the Westerlands was kill the children. Without the children the Lannisters had no claim to the throne and no chance of developing new allies.

So could Renly have taken the capital before the children were gone? Yes, since the only way Renly could have take the capital was moving faster. Between the time Renly declared and he was killed was five months. The time between when Renly declared and Myrcella left the city was six months. There are numerous people who like to argue that Renly taking his time was a good strategic move. However, the longer Renly took to take KL, the harder it became for him to defeat the Lannisters because that gave the Lannisters longer to get Myrcella and Tommen in different places.

[Nyrhex]

3 hours ago, bent branch said:

You have changed the parameters of what I said. Of course, if you are not responding to what I said you can say I'm wrong until the cows come home. However, the OP stipulated that Renly was able to take the capital. My response was that if Renly had successfully taken the capital than he would have won the Crownlands and defeated the Lannisters.

The reason I say he would have defeated the Lannisters is based on the Lannisters at this point had only the Crownlands for allies and little chance of getting new allies. The Lannisters were at war at that point with the Reach, Riverlands, North, and Stormlands. The only other potential allies were Dorne and the Vale. The chances of making either of these regions allies was slim and none. So if Renly had taken the capital before the children had left, all he would have had to do to defeat the Westerlands was kill the children. Without the children the Lannisters had no claim to the throne and no chance of developing new allies.

So could Renly have taken the capital before the children were gone? Yes, since the only way Renly could have take the capital was moving faster. Between the time Renly declared and he was killed was five months. The time between when Renly declared and Myrcella left the city was six months. There are numerous people who like to argue that Renly taking his time was a good strategic move. However, the longer Renly took to take KL, the harder it became for him to defeat the Lannisters because that gave the Lannisters longer to get Myrcella and Tommen in different places.

Now you are mixing the OP's scenario and what Renly was planning in circular logic. The OP is asking what Renly would have done with certain indivuduals had he won, as in the end of the war. Renly planning on taking the capital and ending the war quickly is not to say that that is how the war would end, and we know from the books that he would not have taken Tommen and Myrcella because they were not in the capital exactly because they would have been sent to protect the Lannister claimants.

Renly would not have defeated the Lannisters in one battle, that's a fantasy. The Lannisters did not have the Crownlands, thier contribution was minimal and was summed up in the Battle of the Blackwater as a few hundred knights and sellswords. Even so, the Lannisters, assuming that they still had Tommen, would have still been able to work with the Lannister gold and reputaition to continue the war. 

Even if Myrcella and Tommen remained behind and were murdered by Renly, do you honestly think that Tywin would bend the knee to Renly? What on earth for? And there was another alliance offer right about this time - Balon. And Tywin now finds that they share an interest. 

In the meantime you know who else is at war with everyone? Renly. He has the Reach and the Stormlands, but the North and the Riverlands have broken fealty and Robb has already refused him. The Vale would stay put until Littlefinger decides where best to use them (and from guessing that his aim is for ruling Westeros, going back to being Renly's Master of Coin while he pacifies the realm is not likely to happen). Dorne can stay put until they find thier time to strike. Renly would only gain the Crownlands, and then he has an active front with the Starks and Tullys. And again we reach the point where while he knew he would have to fight the Lannisters, he was hoping everyone else would give up and bend the knee to him without the need to bleed for each and everyone's regocnition of him as king. A hope that the books clearly shatter, as Robb refuses to bend in AGOT, and we know that the Vale, Dorne, Stannis on Dragonestone, and the Iron Islands would all defy him rather than join him.

Could Renly have taken the capital before the children were gone? No. Because moving faster means that the enemy scouts which gave them the reports you were moving slowly are now going to report that you are moving faster. The scouts by the way ride faster even in ones or twos or even squads, and even if they take the tim to enjoy the countryside's view than an army 90,000 strong would do even if they were force marching the entire way. Unless you were under the illusion that an army 90,000 strong could make a force march and surprise you without the plot doing backflips to disguise your advance (i.e. Jaime losing a few scouts and taking most of his cavalry to chase them into a trap, Vale Clansmen burning the Kingswood with the aid of local guids and manage to kill 100% of Stannis' scouts and provide a smoke screen, etc. Why said smoke screen did not alert Stannis with the massive advancing smoke column, or why the horses and riders did not choke on it? Plot, cause fuck it Martin wanted a Rohirrim charge to the rescue so bad he made several in the books), Renly was never going to take the capital with all three children inside. Hell, even the Lannisters staying in the city during the Blackwater was retarded, they had several gates to flee from but Cersei was already preparing for her death.

You don't need a timeline if you are going to ignore what the events of the timeline are. You can't calculate when Renly could have marched faster and then ignore what the counteraction to that would be. 

 

 

[bent branch]

20 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Now you are mixing the OP's scenario and what Renly was planning in circular logic. The OP is asking what Renly would have done with certain indivuduals had he won, as in the end of the war. Renly planning on taking the capital and ending the war quickly is not to say that that is how the war would end, and we know from the books that he would not have taken Tommen and Myrcella because they were not in the capital exactly because they would have been sent to protect the Lannister claimants.

Renly would not have defeated the Lannisters in one battle, that's a fantasy. The Lannisters did not have the Crownlands, thier contribution was minimal and was summed up in the Battle of the Blackwater as a few hundred knights and sellswords. Even so, the Lannisters, assuming that they still had Tommen, would have still been able to work with the Lannister gold and reputaition to continue the war. 

Even if Myrcella and Tommen remained behind and were murdered by Renly, do you honestly think that Tywin would bend the knee to Renly? What on earth for? And there was another alliance offer right about this time - Balon. And Tywin now finds that they share an interest. 

In the meantime you know who else is at war with everyone? Renly. He has the Reach and the Stormlands, but the North and the Riverlands have broken fealty and Robb has already refused him. The Vale would stay put until Littlefinger decides where best to use them (and from guessing that his aim is for ruling Westeros, going back to being Renly's Master of Coin while he pacifies the realm is not likely to happen). Dorne can stay put until they find thier time to strike. Renly would only gain the Crownlands, and then he has an active front with the Starks and Tullys. And again we reach the point where while he knew he would have to fight the Lannisters, he was hoping everyone else would give up and bend the knee to him without the need to bleed for each and everyone's regocnition of him as king. A hope that the books clearly shatter, as Robb refuses to bend in AGOT, and we know that the Vale, Dorne, Stannis on Dragonestone, and the Iron Islands would all defy him rather than join him.

Could Renly have taken the capital before the children were gone? No. Because moving faster means that the enemy scouts which gave them the reports you were moving slowly are now going to report that you are moving faster. The scouts by the way ride faster even in ones or twos or even squads, and even if they take the tim to enjoy the countryside's view than an army 90,000 strong would do even if they were force marching the entire way. Unless you were under the illusion that an army 90,000 strong could make a force march and surprise you without the plot doing backflips to disguise your advance (i.e. Jaime losing a few scouts and taking most of his cavalry to chase them into a trap, Vale Clansmen burning the Kingswood with the aid of local guids and manage to kill 100% of Stannis' scouts and provide a smoke screen, etc. Why said smoke screen did not alert Stannis with the massive advancing smoke column, or why the horses and riders did not choke on it? Plot, cause fuck it Martin wanted a Rohirrim charge to the rescue so bad he made several in the books), Renly was never going to take the capital with all three children inside. Hell, even the Lannisters staying in the city during the Blackwater was retarded, they had several gates to flee from but Cersei was already preparing for her death.

You don't need a timeline if you are going to ignore what the events of the timeline are. You can't calculate when Renly could have marched faster and then ignore what the counteraction to that would be. 

 

 

You know, I was going to give you a long answer, but the simple matter is Renly winning means all three of Cersei's children are dead. That is the only definition of winning that is possible. And the OP only really is asking about when Renly takes KL. It obviously doesn't address the wider issues in Westeros.

[Agent 326]

Arys Oakenheart wouldn't be in King's Landing when Renly attacks because he would be with Myrcella. Balon Swann I could see being pardoned as he is a Swann who are vassals to house Baratheon (and one of the more powerful ones to). Davos would already be dead, it's his two youngest sons that I would really be wondering about. Renly likely wouldn't kill Shireen because killing an innocent girl who is less than ten who also happens to be your niece will make you really hated.