Kalbear Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Kalbear, The peak of the season is supposed to be the end of August start of September. It seems to me the peak is moving later. Per the link, the peak of the season is mid-August through October, with the high point being Sept 10th. 3 weeks from that isn't particularly weird. While the peak isn't moving later, the extremity of it is. There were more hurricanes earlier in the season but they weren't as strong. The stronger ones are hitting later, and the reason is because of more extreme differentiations in temperatures, from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Look, SCIENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iskaral Pust Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I have to fly to NYC and back tomorrow. I'm just hoping that if the airlines start grounding planes throughout their east coast network that they decide before I depart rather than strand me there. But it seems unlikely that NE air travel will be affected as early as Thursday. Best of luck to everyone in the SE. Hopefully the precautions are excessively cautious. Evacuating the entire city of Charleston seems fraught with unintended problems but I'm sure they considered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kairi Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 This is a huge storm with feeder bands extending far out from the center. When it had just intensified into a Tropical Storm we were brushed by one of those bands which dumped quite a bit of rain for several hours on the island. That was when it was a Topical Storm and what we got was the tail effect of one of the feeder bands. Don't want to think what the situation would have been had we taken a direct hit like Haiti and which seems likely for Florida. The point: Prepare, don't think not being in the path of a direct hit means you are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Evacuating 2,3 or even 4 days before a huge storm like Matthew is predicted to hit is SMART, not silly. Anyone who has tried to get away on the day of a predicted hit or even late in the day before, knows that. Because when everyone tries to leave on the same day, it's a jam-up, gas pumps run out (as deliveries either have stopped or can't get through), flights are canceled and there are no more airline seats available, shelter may be in short supply. For example when Hurricane Sandy sat on NYC for so long, with tornadoes and blizzards, and the power utterly gone down town for days and days, with temps at or below freezing -- it was a disaster for everybody still left. The friends and relatives further up on higher ground as in Harlem were swamped with people staying with them already. We evacuated three days before to New Orleans -- there were still seats on Jet Blue. 12 hours later there weren't. We didn't come back until the power was back, which took quite some time as the station for this part of the city blew right at the start of the storm's whacking us. We'd also evacuated twice within 12 months from New Orleans to NYC, in the 12 months that included Katrina. Evidently in Florida there are many residents who weren't there when the latest big storms hit, and were living previously where there were no hurricanes. So people who haven't experienced this should really listen to the warnings and advisories, and get the he!! outta dodge to higher ground. If one floods the personal generator isn't going to keep the a/c going. We've been watching because earlier all the predictors were that Matthew was going to get here too, though when, exactly. So should we go? Where should we go? But first the predictors suggested it would weaken to storm, not hurricane category by the time it go here, so staying makes sense. Now it looks as though Matthew's going to swerve east again once it's creamed the Carolinas. And -- maybe head back into the Gulf and maybe hit NO . . . . In the meantime the Baracoa area of eastern Cuba has been destroyed. There's only one road in and out, and it's gone. And it's still storming there, some are saying. As for Haiti, Holy Cow! Catastrophe, catastrophe, catastrophe. And they were finally going to have a presidential election on Sunday -- they've been without a president since February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 11 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Kalbear, The peak of the season is supposed to be the end of August start of September. It seems to me the peak is moving later. Nothing could possibly explain that... nothing that a certain half of the country denies with every breath... Meanwhile, is this end-of-times storm supposed to hit the NYC/Jersey area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 PQJ, Oh, It seems to me to be tied to climate change as well. However, I keep reading that individual weather events are not climate and shouldn't be taken as evidence for or against climate change. Is the same true for weather patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: PQJ, Oh, It seems to me to be tied to climate change as well. However, I keep reading that individual weather events are not climate and shouldn't be taken as evidence for or against climate change. Is the same true for weather patterns? Kalbears link indicates that there has been significant measurable changes since the 80s to indicate that cat 4/5 Storms are on the rise and will continue, becoming more and more disastrous. Rising ocean levels and Temps are seen as the culprits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arch-MaesterPhilip Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Nothing could possibly explain that... nothing that a certain half of the country denies with every breath... Meanwhile, is this end-of-times storm supposed to hit the NYC/Jersey area? I haven't heard anythingabout it, they are telling people to check the map and see if we're in flood zones but I think we're going to be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myrddin Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Bunkering down in Central Florida here. I lived near Charleston for Hurricane Hugo in '89, so I've seen what these storms can do. But we're quite a ways from the coast, stocked up on supplies, and ready to ride it out. I'll check in when I can tomorrow or Saturday (connectivity willing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iskaral Pust Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Kalbears link indicates that there has been significant measurable changes since the 80s to indicate that cat 4/5 Storms are on the rise and will continue, becoming more and more disastrous. Rising ocean levels and Temps are seen as the culprits. Yeah, ocean view property seems like a riskier proposition in the decades ahead. I'm feeling good about our location right on Lake Michigan. The view may lack the greater motion and surf noise of ocean waves, but flooding, storm surges and hurricanes aren't a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 Ocean view property, particularly on barrier Islands, has always been risky. I'd never buy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerPaladin Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Meanwhile, is this end-of-times storm supposed to hit the NYC/Jersey area? NJ only closes when the storm is going to miss us. Right now I've seen one possible storm track that has the storm going up that coast to North Carolina, curving out to sea and south, and then looping back to Florida. With just the right combinations of high pressure fronts, they could turn this thing into a perpetual motion machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiDisaster Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Things are looking a little better for my area. Latest forecasts have the worst of it hitting north of us. This whole looping around to hit us again thing is annoying though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris the Blade Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Nothing could possibly explain that... nothing that a certain half of the country denies with every breath... Meanwhile, is this end-of-times storm supposed to hit the NYC/Jersey area? I haven't heard anything about it tracking up here to the NJ / NYC area. I'm also hoping it doesn't. So not wanting to deal with the flooding around here. God that shit was brutal during Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Harakiri said: I haven't heard anything about it tracking up here to the NJ / NYC area. I'm also hoping it doesn't. So not wanting to deal with the flooding around here. God that shit was brutal during Sandy. Latest reports are that it's going to hit land in Florida, hang out for about a day and then go to the Atlantic to chill for a while. They don't expect that it'll hit land again, though it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 TWC is predicting 110 MPH winds for Hilton head and 86 MPH winds for Charleston. 3-5 inches of rain for Columbia with winds between 20-30 MPH. It's not Hugo, it's not last year's flood event but nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Queen Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, KiDisaster said: Things are looking a little better for my area. Latest forecasts have the worst of it hitting north of us. This whole looping around to hit us again thing is annoying though How bad is it? I'm out of contact with my parents so they can conserve their cell phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KiDisaster Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said: How bad is it? I'm out of contact with my parents so they can conserve their cell phones. Category 4 still. The eyewall is looking like it's going to make landfall around Palm Beach and keep heading north along the coast. Vero, Melbourne & Daytona are going to get it bad. Here in Deerfield the rain has started but nothing serious yet. I'm sure Boca is the same as us. Still have power as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris the Blade Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Latest reports are that it's going to hit land in Florida, hang out for about a day and then go to the Atlantic to chill for a while. They don't expect that it'll hit land again, though it's possible. Yea, I heard that and that it could loop back around, that's it though. Sucks for my family and some friends down in Florida since many of them live in the path of the storm. There will be some awesome surf up here which will be nice to have again in a bit warmer temperatures air and water wise. Anybody that has to deal with it hitting them, stay safe. Sitting through Sandy while riding it out in our house with it's winds only being around 89-90 mph was pretty unnerving, especially being a few blocks from the beach and even more so during the night in the dark with no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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