Chekhov's arsenal in the Vale or why any plans there will not come to pass.

[Balerion's Whiskers]

7 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

But - as he has taught as a lesson to Alayne - he is well aware that some pieces in the Game of Thrones will not move as predicted, and knowing this he is clever enough not to force such moves but adapt to unforeseen situations.

And he always keeps his hands clean...a lesson that he's stressed to Sansa. He's climbed the ladder of chaos by doing things no one has expected him to do.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

There's a few possibilities of things happening that LF just can't control and lots of evidence things are unravelling.  There's too many factors going on that it makes it more and more unrealistic he can adapt fast enough.  There's the threat of the Mountain Clans looming in the background.  They went to war with Tyrion, given steel weapons and armor, and undoubtedly learned more about military strategy from the inside.  Tyrion also promised them control of the Vale, while he's not in a position to deliver on that promise, the Clans are probably still aiming for that.  

This betrothal to Harry was supposed to go very differently.  He anticipated Tyrion being executed after the PW, but he ended up escaping instead.  That's not really the major issue most likely, but it was something he was expecting so Sansa would be legally free from her marriage.  There's probably other ways around this like a regime change in KL, but being widowed is much easier and cut-and-dry.  Having to marry Sansa to Harry faster than he planned actually makes things much harder to maintain any control in the Vale.  Harry is a man grown and does not need a Lord Protector should SR die and he inherits. Yohn Royce's influence over Harry has already caused him to dislike LF, which is why LF needs Alayne to seduce Harry to "their" side.  Which is why the "poisoning" of SR doesn't make sense.  He can't have SR die too soon or unexpectedly before LF has established his influence over Harry.  When he exposes Alayne as Sansa, he is publically declaring he is a traitor to the current regime by aiding a wanted criminal.  To do that safely, he needs to be in the protection of the Vale.  Keeping SR alive and remaining Lord Protector is his best option at the moment.  

There's also Shadrich and most likely his crew of Morgarth and Byron who will be attempting something with Sansa.  My opinion is that he's actually there to help and he's not really doing it for gold.  There's a little hint in his sigil of a white mouse with red eyes that seems very weirwood-like and seems like a sign of northern solidarity.  There's also:

Spoiler

GRRM tends to have Sansa run into and be caught by people who are actually helpful.  This happens quite a few times with Sandor.  It happens 2 more times in TWOW chapter.  She bumps into Lothor Brune who catches her and gives her a word of support ("Harry the Arse).  She appreciates that support so much she gives him a hug.  She's also rooting for Lothor to win Mya Stone's heart.  Lothor is also the only person she's mentally compared to Sandor who actually comes out favorably.  Her assistance in this might prove to win Lothor to her side over LF.  With LF it's just a job, but he does seem to have a genuine platonic affection for Sansa.  This bumping into and catching happens a third time with Shadrich.  It happens right after her conversation with Lyn Corbray where he starts getting a little heated.  It appears Shadrich may have been watching this and was already approaching her to subtly get her away from Lyn.  If the pattern of bumping/catching = helpfulness is true, Shadrich is probably going to attempt a rescue, not a kidnapping.

 Lyn Corbray I think is the most dangerous person who could possibly learn about Alayne's true identity.  He's been screwed over quite a bit by LF and I think he wouldn't hesitate to turn Sansa over for the gold and to get revenge on LF.

I really doubt Myranda Royce is actually a frenemy, despite her bit of hurt.   She most definitely knows who Alayne really is.  The minute LF warns Sansa about Myranda as being shrewd, I thought to myself:  If LF is worried about her, I want Sansa to be her best friend.  I think Myranda's supposed jealousy is way over-blown and I think it's countered by the fact that Sansa is actually a really good friend to her.  Myranda has basically been slut-shamed by her own father for the death of her first husband during sex.  Now Nestor threatens to marry her off to some really deplorable suitors just to be rid of her.  Honestly, Myranda is the best of the junior branch who actually runs a pretty good household at the Gates.  Harry by comparison to her other suitors would probably be much preferable, though she is fully aware he is a womanizer and he would likely be making more bastards after marrying anyone.  It seems that Lady Waynwood turned Nestor down because either they didn't have a big enough dowry or she was a little judgemental of Myranda.  What does Sansa do?  

Spoiler

She "rescues" Myranda from the attentions of some really dull, and disgusting male attention.  She gives Myranda words of support and sympathy for her situation.  She never shames Myranda for her being a sexual person.  In fact, I think she admires Myranda's confidence and probably wants to learn a bit from her.  Female friendships are very important to Sansa and this particular friendship could be very beneficial to Sansa in the near future.  I think as they make their playful, girlish run to the caslte to greet the Waynwoods, Myranda's cloak flies off it likely symbolizes Myranda casting off seeing Sansa as a competator for marriage options and valuing the friendship instead.  Sansa compares this scene to running around Winterfell with Arya and Jeyne so Saansa is also casting off "proper" lady behavior in favor of recapturing those feeling of friendship and sisterhood.  I think this type of friendship is sorely needed after so long in isolation to Sansa's reclaiming of her Stark identity.  This also flies in the face of a particularly vicious trope of females not being able to have true and meaningful friendships because jealousy will always come first.  That they will always chose competition over a romantic options rather than chose the friendship.   

     There's also the factor of Sansa herself.  She has so much freedom of movement because she has LF convinced she is completely on his side and their goals are mutual.  She never shares one true thought or feeling with him.  This freedom, especially after the decent from the Eyrie, has caused her to be able to form beneficial relationships with other people.  Since the pressure of possibly being betrothed to SR has been taken off the table, she's been able to solidify a closer relationship with him.  She uses stories to encourage better behavior and instinctively uses what I'd call cognitive-behavioral therapy on SR to help prevent his shaking fits and help him to develop a stronger lordly image.  Even though her true identity is still a secret from him, she is slowly emotionally bonding with him with the shared interest of stories. If SR ends up living to adulthood, he would be a very powerful ally for her in the future.  She doesn't actually want to be married, but she's at least shrewd enough to evaluate Harry for herself.  If people have criticized her for not playing the game, well it's only until she gets to the Gates of the Moon that she actually has a court to test her court-intrgue skills on.  She's been in largely isolation before that.

Spoiler

She finds Harry pretty lacking in character.  It's funny that she doesn't seduce him like LF instructs her to.  She questions him about his bastards to test his honesty.  Her supposed flirting with Harry at the very end of the passage has nothing to do with her true desires.  She examines his looks after everything else they discuss and it's like she's trying to find something attractive about him.  The whole "all the spice you'll ever want" bit.  It's actually a pretty cheesy line and seems more imitated from something Myranda Royce might say than anything genuine.  Harry is ready to drop Saffron at the mere suggestion of some "spice."  I think whoever she decides to give her favor to at the tournament will be a very strategic choice to knock Harry on his stupid head and humiliate him so thoroughly he'll pull the plug on any betrothal to Alayne.  So while appearing to be following LF's directions with Harry, she's likely undermining them by deftly setting up a situation where his plans will fall apart.  

Without Harry's approval of the match, Lady Waynwood can do nothing.  I suspect she does know who Alayne might be, but not because LF told her.  At the Lords Declarent meeting, she refered to Alayne as being "gently bred" and all the things that she's been through.  That's a strange thing to say about a bastard she just met.  Maybe she does know, but she still has many debts and figures having Sansa Stark married to Harry will all work out for the best for her family.  Not that she's really a supporter of Sansa's cause.  Bronze Yohn would likely be her best ally, but his hands are tied if he can't get the support of the other lords.  Bronze Yohn does not appear to be present in TWOW, so any shake ups that happen, might turn the tide for Yohn in his favor and thus Sansa's.

[Greywater-Watch]

22 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

and all the things that she's been through.  That's a strange thing to say about a bastard she just met.

I am not convinced that Anya Waynwood knows about Alayne's true identity. However re-reading the chapter recently this phrase you quoted struck me too and planted a seed of doubt in me... 

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

@Greywater-Watch I'm not sure her knowing is going to really change anything. It might just be to point out LF does not have all these people fooled like he thinks he does.  It does make me wonder about Lady Waynwood if she does know.  Agreeing to this arrangement also could expose her as a traitor to the crown as much as LF as long as the current regime is in power.  She was scared to risk Bronze Yohn's wrath but not the Lannisters?  

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think there are even more guns set to go off.  There is the love interest of Lothor Brune, who does know who Sansa is for Mya Stone, and her own in Michael Redfort.  Perhaps Lothor wins a joust he is not suppose to win?

[A Ghost of Someone]

The Vale and what goes down there has me stoked for TWOW the most out of all of the other stuff and it all seems to be good too. Intrigue galore.

[The Sleeper]

On 2/11/2016 at 9:29 PM, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

@Greywater-Watch I'm not sure her knowing is going to really change anything. It might just be to point out LF does not have all these people fooled like he thinks he does.  It does make me wonder about Lady Waynwood if she does know.  Agreeing to this arrangement also could expose her as a traitor to the crown as much as LF as long as the current regime is in power.  She was scared to risk Bronze Yohn's wrath but not the Lannisters?  

It is a question of proximity and interest. Bronze Yohn is much closer and likely to take more of her interest in her actions.

It does raise the question of the general disposition of the lords of the Vale. Apparently during the war of the five kings they were willing to mobilize for the Starks, both due to the connections Ned had, as well as the questions raised about Jon Arryn's death. One should also keep in mind that not all of them willingly joined Robert's rebellion and at least some of those who those who fought against Arryn, coincide with those that comprise what is now the LF faction. I think it's safe to say that they harbor no particular loyalty to IT. Without the Starks to rally behind would they be willing to rebel? And there is the fact that the IT is collapsing. I don't think there is a single strong tendency in this political climate and we should keep in mind that the Vale is essentially leaderless.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

9 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

It does raise the question of the general disposition of the lords of the Vale. Apparently during the war of the five kings they were willing to mobilize for the Starks, both due to the connections Ned had, as well as the questions raised about Jon Arryn's death. One should also keep in mind that not all of them willingly joined Robert's rebellion and at least some of those who those who fought against Arryn, coincide with those that comprise what is now the LF faction. I think it's safe to say that they harbor no particular loyalty to IT. Without the Starks to rally behind would they be willing to rebel? And there is the fact that the IT is collapsing. I don't think there is a single strong tendency in this political climate and we should keep in mind that the Vale is essentially leaderless

Very good points.  I would say it's hinted that Yohn Royce was probably the most passionate supporter of Robb Stark, but Lysa refused involvement in the Wot5K.  It's hard to say even with ties to the Starks, how strong the other Vale lords feelings were about supporting Robb.  In general, the Vale lords seem to prefer being more insular and concern themselves more with fighting Mountain Clans and politicking amongst themselves.  There is no particularloyalty to the IT, but I was thinking more of what could happen if Cersei does (and I expect her to) win her trial and at least temporarily regains power?  She would never let it go that the Vale was hiding Sansa and planned a political marriage to the Vale heir, despite even immediate concerns in KL. Part of LF's planning is Cersei going down before the presumed wedding to expose Sansa, so he must fear a little bit Lannister wrath at his treason I would think?  They could attain him of all his lands and titles and make him a wanted man.  He has allies in the Vale, but are his ties strong enough to protect him from being turned over to avoid conflict with the IT?  Might they decide LF's just not worth it?  Would they really rally behind Sansa to take back Winterfell?  LF says they would, but he's a liar and I'm not sure other than Yohn Royce if the Vale lords have the stomach for rebellion.  They haven't demonstrated any strong political will in any direction and you're right there's no leader.  I think Sansa must sense this, because she's not really invested in LF's plan.  She doesn't want to actually marry Harrold, so either she's not willing to get Winterfell back by any means necessary or she doesn't actually believe this plan will work based on her own observations of Vale politics.  Plus she's smart enough to know by now that no one would rally behind her if she didn't serve their own self-interest leaving her just someone else's political pawn.                           

[The Sleeper]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf The way I see it, they would have joined Robb mostly because of questions about Jon Arryn's death and let's face it, nobody likes the Lannisters, particualrly after Tyrion's performance. After the war however there is no cause to rally behind, combined with a lack of a leader. In theory, Harry marrying Sansa could provide both those elements, however Harry would still be an untried youth and an invasion of the North during the winter really is unfeasible. See how well Stannis is faring.

I don't think LF's problem with the IT is Cersei, as much as it is the Tyrells. As far as Cersei is concerned LF has been nothing but helpful and beyond that he really is beneath notice. However he can implicate the Tyrells in regicide, which is a very good reason for them to have him fitted for a noose at their earliest possible convenience. That is a very good reason for leaving King's Landing. I am also reasonably certain that the Tyrells wanted Sansa for themselves and he screwd them by both whisking her away as well as ruining her for them for openly marrying her to Willas.

I see his actions dictated by the fact that the Tyrells are tied to the throne and that Tommen cannot survive without them. As such he really has no other course of action but to undermine the throne, while building another power structure he can operate safely in. In theory he can turn the Lannisters against the Tyrells, either by revealing the twincest or publicly imlicating the Tyrells in Jeoffrey's murder. This is however moot as the allince is imploding without any help from him.

Sansa's marriage to Harry could be a way to force the Vale lords to committing against the Iron Throne.

ETA Sansa does not appear to have committed, but rather seems to try to go along with making minimal waves. Originally she would have been better off with the Tyrells, but after that the path LF has taken is not against her own interests.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

In theory, Harry marrying Sansa could provide both those elements, however Harry would still be an untried youth and an invasion of the North during the winter really is unfeasible. See how well Stannis is faring

Good point.  I think Sansa makes an observation similar to her mother referring to Renly's host as "knights of summer" when she meets the Waynwoods and Harry.  These are the forces she'd have to place her bets on.  So far no one she encounters seems to have a high opinion of Harry's martial skills and he was only recently knighted after a tourney that was just for squires.  I would think after her experience with the BotBW, she's at least a little more realistic about how battles can go.  Her brother was young and inspiring, well trained, and he won many battles, but he still lost the war.  Renly was young and inspiring and had the support of HIghgarden, but he got killed all the same.  Stannis was a very experienced commander and still lost at BW.  The Lannisters won the war not by military might, but by taking advantage of a political mis-step, treachery, a big chain, and wildfyre.  While she doesn't really have any other options presenting themselves for the moment, I can still see her subtly undermining this possible betrothal.  What's the point of marrying this guy and putting up with all his character deficiencies if she's not confident there's a clear win for her?

 

7 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I see his actions dictated by the fact that the Tyrells are tied to the throne and that Tommen cannot survive without them. As such he really has no other course of action but to undermine the throne, while building another power structure he can operate safely in. In theory he can turn the Lannisters against the Tyrells, either by revealing the twincest or publicly imlicating the Tyrells in Jeoffrey's murder. This is however moot as the allince is imploding without any help from him

The same power plays in KL between the Tyrells, Lannisters, and the Faith that are keeping them occupied for now are also the same ones that can work against him.  I think the bolded is key.  The problem is, and LF even said it himself, that things are accelerating in KL faster than he thought.  He was playing a long game, thinking he had a few years to plant seeds to create that power structure that would protect him.  He doesn't have the physical protection of the Eyrie anymore.  His whole position currently rests on being SR's Lord Protector and a few alliances to keep him from being removed.  He is working quickly to horde food so he can gouge prices in winter.  The next step is winning the heir to his side, which is why he's so insistant on Sansa seducing Harry.  Harry is of legal age and doesn't need at LP.  Sansa is key to getting his foot in the door with Harry so he can work his lies and Arbor Gold on him.  He has to get him away from Yohn's influence to keep his protection.  Does he actually have the time for that kind of grooming considering how fast events are unfolding?  Harry has yet to approve the match.  He could still decide that he could find a better wife than LF's bastard, even if he was seduced.  He has no qualms about loving them and leaving them.  The worst thing that could happen is if SR died before he's secured his position with the heir (which is why I don't buy that sweetsleep is actually being used as a poison).  And I do think the tables can be flipped even further with all the wild cards:  Myranda Royce, Shadrich, Lyn Corbray, and the Mountain Clans.  Hell, even Oswell Kettleblack might even decide to betray LF.  His sons were spying for LF in KL.  Osney is already set to be executed and the other two face trial by combat against Robert Strong.  If LF can't protect his sons, might the father decide to expose and turn over LF in some kind of deal for his sons?  

You're right that the Lannisters don't suspect anything from him now, but might the Tyrells already suspect who could have screwed them out of Sansa marrying Willas?  Sure they must have thought Sansa herself told someone, but after the PW when Sansa disappears with Dontos they must have been thinking about someone who knew what would happen at the PW and who might be the real brains behind a drunkard like Dontos who couldn't pull off an escape on his own.  Unless I'm missing something, LF had to cross Olenna's mind.  

                             

[the Scorpion Knight]

On 1.11.2016 at 2:41 AM, the conquering bastard 25 said:

Unless of course those stipulation were put into place to buy the Lord's Declared sometime. Also Waynwood knows who Sansa is and who she's we'd too, so this gives both parties time to neutralize Tyrion.

Thank you, thought I was the only one who noticed that.

that why i think aegon will cause dire trouble in the vale: he KNOWS tyrion is alive. and the fact that  knows dyed hair.

Another person suspiciously flying below everybodies Radar: Oswell Kettleblack. He has three very good reasons to betray LF and the the crimes he can pin aLF are damaging.   

 

[The Sleeper]

@Blue-Eyed Wolf I disagree that LF plays long-term games, but that is a different discussion. In a sense the scheme with marrying Sansa to Harry is a repetition of what he had with Lysa and Jon Arryn. He already has connections with the lords of the Vale around Gulltown from his years working as a factor there and having in theory the ear of the lord of the Vale would secure him a position of wealth and influence. Personally, I consider half of what LF says is bullshit and the other half grandstanding, but if we consider the plans he shared with Sansa to have a modicum of truth, I can see that as being his course of action.

I agree about Robert. The use of sweetsleep is a result of him being inconsiderate of his health in favor of appearances as he considers his long-term survival unlikely. After all, Robert whose custody he had and could have stood as a father figure would have been a much better bet.

And yes the Tyrells know. It seems unlikely that they could guess about the early disclosure of their plan to Tywin, though not impossible, after all everyone is watched in King's Landing, but the later disappearance could only be due to their co-conspirator. I believe that they had fully expected to marry a widowed Sansa to Willas after the PW.

@the Scorpion Knight Good point about Aegon, with a caveat. He knew Tyrion was alive last time he saw him.

It is unlikely Oswell has the warm and fuzzies about LF now, but I don't know what he can do about it. If he were in King's Landing, he could very well burn any remaining bridges LF has with the Lannisters. He might have a go at LF himself.

I think aside from the intrigue, it will be the Mountain clans that will cause large scale upheaval in the Vale. They've been around since the beginning and there are constant mentions of them and the increased level of danger they represent due to being armed with Lannister steel. As LF is lord protector dealing with them falls squarely on his shoulders. They are also an opportunity for Sansa as she personally knows their chieftains.

[The Sleeper]

Another issue that has not been addressed is Nestor Royce's appointment as lord of the Gates of the Moon. Apart from being their original seat, it is easy to see why the Arryns always kept it in the family. Not only does it control access to the Eyrie, it houses the Lord of the Vale for half the year. This is an inordinate amount of power as the lord of the Gates can allow or ristrict access to the lord paramount as he pleases, or even hold him hostage. It is a hugely problematic appointment, that can potentially destroy effective rulership of the Vale for the Arryns and I think it will come up.

It is hard to see how it will play out. As the appointment is contigent on LF remaining as lord protector, Nestor should safely remain in his pocket. In a way it is a far more effective way of controlling the lord of the Vale. If Sansa's charms fail LF he could effectively hold Harry hostage. The problem lies that if Harry inherits LF ceases to be lord protector and the appointment loses further legitimacy. Furthermore, it is hard to see how a lord of the Vale can tolerate being at the mercy of one of his lords or how the other lords will tolerate the situation.

In many ways LF's stint in the Vale is highly corrosive and along with the divisions he has caused (or exacerbated) this one of the things that will cause problems. Civil war in the Vale, is not out of the question.

[the Scorpion Knight]

7 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

@Blue-Eyed Wolf...

@the Scorpion Knight Good point about Aegon, with a caveat. He knew Tyrion was alive last time he saw him.

It is unlikely Oswell has the warm and fuzzies about LF now, but I don't know what he can do about it. If he were in King's Landing, he could very well burn any remaining bridges LF has with the Lannisters. He might have a go at LF himself.

I think aside from the intrigue, it will be the Mountain clans that will cause large scale upheaval in the Vale. They've been around since the beginning and there are constant mentions of them and the increased level of danger they represent due to being armed with Lannister steel. As LF is lord protector dealing with them falls squarely on his shoulders. They are also an opportunity for Sansa as she personally knows their chieftains.

1.)true but aegon saw tyrion swim in the sorrrowrs unscathed.

2.) Oswell is able to pinpoint the dwarftroupe(he hired them), Sansa's escape and Dontos murder(he's an eye wittness to both) on LF. It's actually a Morton's Fork: Doesn't matter who talks, The father or the sons, LF is in dire trouble. 

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

@The Sleeper I would say his careful manuevering up the ladder for over 15 years shows a lot of patience and long term strategy.  When he attains a higher position, he makes sure he employees merchant class people under him so he's built his own loyalty system.  Of course his relationship with Lysa gave him a foot in the door to KL and eventually master of coin; however no one was happy that he married Lysa, since so many of them were courting her and so many wanted to foster Robert.  He had to rebuild loyalty from scratch starting with the Vale lords easiest to corrupt so he could ice out Yohn Royce.  In this scene he's been in a celebratory mood and has been drinking late into the night, so he might be a little less inhibited and careful than he usually is.    

Quote

 "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

I think the thriving in chaos part is the real bullshit and grandstanding. That ellipsis and pause in his thoughts might indicate a moment of doubt or worry followed by the reassurance to himself he's got this under control.  I'm pretty certain in 4-5 years he could have had Harry meet an untimely death (assuming SR is dead) so he would be free to marry Sansa himself.  If she had Harry's child, that child would be heir to the Vale and Winterfell and he'd be in a LP position again.  He would have gotten even richer off the price gouging through winter and brought more enemies and most of the realm to heel.  

He might do well at this point to get rid of Kettleblack.  His sons are now useless as spies and he doesn't need a bitter guy around who knows who Alayne really is.  By default then, he would have to get rid of Lothor Brune too.  If Kettleblack goes, Lothor Brune would surely know he's next as he knows the same things.  He might be planning for that eventuality in AFFC because he brings in new hedge knights: Shadrich, Morgarth, and Byron.  Of course he doesn't know that Shadrich is hunting for Sansa.    

9 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I think aside from the intrigue, it will be the Mountain clans that will cause large scale upheaval in the Vale. They've been around since the beginning and there are constant mentions of them and the increased level of danger they represent due to being armed with Lannister steel. As LF is lord protector dealing with them falls squarely on his shoulders. They are also an opportunity for Sansa as she personally knows their chieftains.

And as LP we haven't seen him do anything at all to address the Mountain Clans.  I'm not sure how well Sansa "knows" the chieftains, but she can certainly name-drop that she was/is the wife of Tyrion if she were to encounter them.  That would be a very interesting scenario.  The fighting between the Vale lords and the Mountain Clans is not unlike the North lords and NW vs. the wildlings.  Jon is trying to bring the wildlings through to assimilate them into the rest of the kingdom to make common cause against the Others.  He's already starting the process by marrying Alys Karstark to the Magnar of the Thenns.  The Mountain Clans are First Men stock that would have the knowledge to survive winter.  The north and riverlands have suffered massive losses of life and an infusion of new people to populate, assimilate and marry can help with survival and rebuilding.  

 

9 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

It is hard to see how it will play out. As the appointment is contigent on LF remaining as lord protector, Nestor should safely remain in his pocket. In a way it is a far more effective way of controlling the lord of the Vale. If Sansa's charms fail LF he could effectively hold Harry hostage. The problem lies that if Harry inherits LF ceases to be lord protector and the appointment loses further legitimacy. Furthermore, it is hard to see how a lord of the Vale can tolerate being at the mercy of one of his lords or how the other lords will tolerate the situation

Another thing that occured to me about Nestor Royce is his daughter Myranda is not too happy with him right now.  Myranda strikes me as much smarter than her father or brother.  By all accounts she seemed to be doing a very good job of running the Gates of the Moon, but her father seems to see her as a burden he needs to be rid of.  He blames her for her much older first husband dying and now he's threatening to marry her off to some really deplorable suitor.  Could it be that off page and in private she's been critical of her father being in LF's pocket and that's why he threatens to marry her off to an undesirable?  She knows what her father has allied himself with LF to get his new inherited title and has accepted bribes, but none of this has really benefitted Myranda.  In fact, it's LF's buying up Lady Waynwood's debt and the proposal to marry Alayne probably caused the refusal of the offer for Myranda to marry Harry, a match that she probably would have been happy with.  Myranda also seems to be a pretty good person.  She's friends with Mya Stone, she cares about SR and he seems to really like her, and she's kind to the stuttering Ser Wallace.  While she might have had a moment of hurt, over all Alayne and Myranda have been pretty good, supportive friends.  So any beef she has must be with Littlefinger, her father, and probably Lady Waynwood.  Not just for ruining her possible match with Harry, but she can't be happy with Littlefinger controlling SR and her father being okay with it for a flimsy title and some tapestries.  I'm not sure what she'll do with the knowledge she's been sitting on, but I think there's a possibilty of acting when there's an opportunity to undermine her father.   

 

 

                    

[the Scorpion Knight]

6 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

He might do well at this point to get rid of Kettleblack.  His sons are now useless as spies and he doesn't need a bitter guy around who knows who Alayne really is.  By default then, he would have to get rid of Lothor Brune too.  If Kettleblack goes, Lothor Brune would surely know he's next as he knows the same things

oswell is been largy on a "be around as little as possible" basis with LF. not to mention that his son have already spilt the beans they were under LFs payroll. and trying to get rid of them would/will be an revealing coverup. 

 

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

On ‎11‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 1:37 PM, Balerion's Whiskers said:

And he always keeps his hands clean...a lesson that he's stressed to Sansa. He's climbed the ladder of chaos by doing things no one has expected him to do.

But he doesn't always keep his hands clean, he has made several enemies, and left himself vulnerable in several ways.  Tyrion knows that LF was after him and looks to be on his way to being at Danys side, Sansa knows he killed Lysa and that Lysa killed Jon, Olenna knows he helped kill Joffrey.  Sr. Kettleblacks 3 sons have now been imprisoned and will likely die, it was LF who sent them to KL.  His man Lothor Brune is in love with Mya, and Corbray seems to actually hate him for real now that he is not his brothers heir.

Sansa on the other hand does always keep her hands clean, and George included a beautiful metaphor for this.  LF tries to eat a blood orange without getting his hands sticky, but fails.  Sansa uses a spoon.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

5 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

But he doesn't always keep his hands clean, he has made several enemies, and left himself vulnerable in several ways.  Tyrion knows that LF was after him and looks to be on his way to being at Danys side, Sansa knows he killed Lysa and that Lysa killed Jon, Olenna knows he helped kill Joffrey.  Sr. Kettleblacks 3 sons have now been imprisoned and will likely die, it was LF who sent them to KL.  His man Lothor Brune is in love with Mya, and Corbray seems to actually hate him for real now that he is not his brothers heir.

Sansa on the other hand does always keep her hands clean, and George included a beautiful metaphor for this.  LF tries to eat a blood orange without getting his hands sticky, but fails.  Sansa uses a spoon.

I'm glad you said this.  LF means "clean hands" as in not getting caught in the bad things he does.  You're absolutely right, he is full of shit.  There's more and more people on to him, so in that sense he has failed in keeping his hands clean.  

The other interpretation of "clean hands" is not getting involved with corruption to begin with.  If your actions are moral and ethical, then your hands are clean.  There's also "coming clean" and "washing your hands clean" as in telling the truth and washing away a bad situation or person.  This is the struggle in Sansa's arc with LF.  He's trying to impress upon her his version of "clean hands" and she's always been troubled by it and has always wrestled with it.  She was stuck in a bad position of emotional blackmail and actually being hunted, but now things are shifting and I think she's about to tell the truth out loud and openly:

Quote

"The little lord cannot abide them," Ser Lymond Lynderly replied. "Not since Marillion."

"Ah...that was the man who murdered Lady Lysa, yes?"

Alayne spoke up. "His singing pleased her greatly, and she showed him too much favor, perhaps. When she wed my father he went mad and pushed her out the Moon Door. Lord Robert has hated singing ever since. He is still fond of music, though."

On the surface, it sounds like she's just repeating the lie about Marillion, but read it closely the way it's phrased.  She never says "Yes, Marillion was the man that murdered Lysa."  She's telling the truth about both Marillion and "her father."  Lysa was pleased by the singing and did show Marillion too much favor.  The second sentence she says is key.  The "he" can be read to actually refer to "her father" going mad and pushing Lysa out the Moon Door.  

[the Scorpion Knight]

10 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

But he doesn't always keep his hands clean, he has made several enemies, and left himself vulnerable in several ways.  Tyrion knows that LF was after him and looks to be on his way to being at Danys side, Sansa knows he killed Lysa and that Lysa killed Jon, Olenna knows he helped kill Joffrey.  Sr. Kettleblacks 3 sons have now been imprisoned and will likely die, it was LF who sent them to KL.  His man Lothor Brune is in love with Mya, and Corbray seems to actually hate him for real now that he is not his brothers heir.

Sansa on the other hand does always keep her hands clean, and George included a beautiful metaphor for this.  LF tries to eat a blood orange without getting his hands sticky, but fails.  Sansa uses a spoon.

lord gyles rosby began to see through the monetary scam LF called investment.

and varys most likely is preparing a checkmate against LF.

[Colonel Green]

On 11/13/2016 at 3:58 PM, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Part of LF's planning is Cersei going down before the presumed wedding to expose Sansa, so he must fear a little bit Lannister wrath at his treason I would think? 

Littlefinger doesn't say anything about requiring Cersei to be gone (indeed, he considers her an easily manipulable rube), just that he expects she won't be around soon.  She's no real danger to him at this point, safe in the Vale.  Indeed, the Crown declaring him an enemy would probably improve his standing with the anti-Lannister faction in the Vale.

On 11/14/2016 at 3:07 PM, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Harry has yet to approve the match.

Harry doesn't need to approve the match.  They're betrothed, because Waynwood has the legal right to do that.

On 11/15/2016 at 4:31 AM, The Sleeper said:

I believe that they had fully expected to marry a widowed Sansa to Willas after the PW.

...

I think aside from the intrigue, it will be the Mountain clans that will cause large scale upheaval in the Vale. They've been around since the beginning and there are constant mentions of them and the increased level of danger they represent due to being armed with Lannister steel. As LF is lord protector dealing with them falls squarely on his shoulders. They are also an opportunity for Sansa as she personally knows their chieftains.

GRRM made clear that Sansa was the Tyrells' fall-guy if their initial plan of Joffrey's death being passed off as poisoning didn't work.  They didn't know that Littlefinger was taking steps to frame Tyrion; that was Baelish's own scheme.

Sansa doesn't personally know any mountain clansmen.  She's seen a few of them stand around at times, but she doesn't know them.  This is one frequent fan speculation that has never made much sense to me.  If the mountain clans were going to be an important part of Sansa's story, she would have had some actual interactions with them in KL, one would would think; and likewise, if Sansa's being married to Tyrion was meant to be some sort of asset in her dealings with them, the clans wouldn't have left well before Sansa was forced to marry him.  There's no indication they know about the marriage, nor would they have any reason to believe her.