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The Sleeper

Chekhov's arsenal in the Vale or why any plans there will not come to pass.

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2 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Indeed, the Crown declaring him an enemy would probably improve his standing with the anti-Lannister faction in the Vale.

actually quite the opposite. it would give them all a complimentary ticket to use lethal violence against LF. ESPECIALY if sansa revealed. 

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1 minute ago, the Scorpion Knight said:

actually quite the opposite. it would give them all a complimentary ticket to use lethal violence against LF. ESPECIALY if sansa revealed. 

If they declared who an enemy?

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6 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

GRRM made clear that Sansa was the Tyrells' fall-guy if their initial plan of Joffrey's death being passed off as poisoning didn't work.  They didn't know that Littlefinger was taking steps to frame Tyrion; that was Baelish's own scheme.

Sansa doesn't personally know any mountain clansmen.  She's seen a few of them stand around at times, but she doesn't know them.  This is one frequent fan speculation that has never made much sense to me.  If the mountain clans were going to be an important part of Sansa's story, she would have had some actual interactions with them in KL, one would would think; and likewise, if Sansa's being married to Tyrion was meant to be some sort of asset in her dealings with them, the clans wouldn't have left well before Sansa was forced to marry him.  There's no indication they know about the marriage, nor would they have any reason to believe her.

Is there a quote? Because the text does not make it clear, to me at least. Apart from their stated intention to have her marry Willas there is the decision to include her in Margaery's circle. That speaks of recruitment to me. And why not? Willas and Sansa's children could stand to inherit the Reach, Riverlands and North. There is the fact that Olenna invited her to Highgarden and that even if suspicion fell on her it would have been in their power to protect her. After all, Sansa was an unwitting conspirator. They wouldn't want her interrogated in the first place. It would make more sense for them to remove her from the picture than framing her. After all, there was no way for a thirteen year old hostage to obtain that poison.

The necklace was LF's arrangement. As for Tyrion, they might not have known from the beginning and would have little readon to care for him either way. They certainly however used the altercation to poison Jeoffrey, which suggest that they were aware of it by that time. And it suited their original stated intentions just fine.

I never suggested that Sansa is personal friends with the Mountain Clans, but she knows their faces and names and they know her as well. They don't live in a vacuum, they would have heard of her marriage to Tyrion. It may or may not allow for the beginning of some sort of negotiation. The speculation about their role in the Vale does not derive from their acquaintance with Sansa, but from their increased aggression and superior armament. They are already causing problems in the Vale. Escalation seems like a very likely development.

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On 15/11/2016 at 6:56 PM, the Scorpion Knight said:

1.)true but aegon saw tyrion swim in the sorrrowrs unscathed.

2.) Oswell is able to pinpoint the dwarftroupe(he hired them), Sansa's escape and Dontos murder(he's an eye wittness to both) on LF. It's actually a Morton's Fork: Doesn't matter who talks, The father or the sons, LF is in dire trouble. 

My objection about Oswell is that I believe he is currently in the Vale, where any potential revelations would have far less dramatic repercussions than they would in King's Landing.

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5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Is there a quote? Because the text does not make it clear, to me at least. Apart from their stated intention to have her marry Willas there is the decision to include her in Margaery's circle. That speaks of recruitment to me. And why not? Willas and Sansa's children could stand to inherit the Reach, Riverlands and North. There is the fact that Olenna invited her to Highgarden and that even if suspicion fell on her it would have been in their power to protect her. After all, Sansa was an unwitting conspirator. They wouldn't want her interrogated in the first place. It would make more sense for them to remove her from the picture than framing her. After all, there was no way for a thirteen year old hostage to obtain that poison.

The necklace was LF's arrangement. As for Tyrion, they might not have known from the beginning and would have little readon to care for him either way. They certainly however used the altercation to poison Jeoffrey, which suggest that they were aware of it by that time. And it suited their original stated intentions just fine.

I never suggested that Sansa is personal friends with the Mountain Clans, but she knows their faces and names and they know her as well. They don't live in a vacuum, they would have heard of her marriage to Tyrion. It may or may not allow for the beginning of some sort of negotiation. The speculation about their role in the Vale does not derive from their acquaintance with Sansa, but from their increased aggression and superior armament. They are already causing problems in the Vale. Escalation seems like a very likely development.

I'm pretty sure that what George said was the Tyrells wanted people to think it was an accident.

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12 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Littlefinger doesn't say anything about requiring Cersei to be gone (indeed, he considers her an easily manipulable rube), just that he expects she won't be around soon.  She's no real danger to him at this point, safe in the Vale.  Indeed, the Crown declaring him an enemy would probably improve his standing with the anti-Lannister faction in the Vale

 

12 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Harry doesn't need to approve the match.  They're betrothed, because Waynwood has the legal right to do that.

Actually he does say this in response to both your statements:

Quote

Petyr put a finger to her lips to silence her. "The dwarf wed Ned Stark's daughter, not mine. Be that as it may. This is only a betrothal. The marriage must needs wait until Cersei is done and Sansa's safely widowed. And you must meet the boy and win his approval. Lady Waynwood will not make him marry against his will, she was quite firm on that."

Harry is a legal adult and male even if he's Lady Waynwood's ward.  She probably couldn't legally force him anyway.  She has influence and it's in her own family's interest to stay close to and in the good graces of the heir of the Vale.  She wouldn't win points with Harry as her possible future leigelord by forcing an unwanted match on him.  Hence that is why Petyr is so insistant Sansa get over her disgust with Harry's rude behavior and get on with seducing him ASAP.  

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14 hours ago, the Scorpion Knight said:

actually quite the opposite. it would give them all a complimentary ticket to use lethal violence against LF. ESPECIALY if sansa revealed. 

They wouldn't want to use lethal force against Littlefinger in that instance.  The whole reason (or at least the main reason) Royce and co. dislike him is because they think he's a Lannister stooge.  If it turned out he was actually an enemy of the regime, particularly one who rescued Sansa, he'd look like a hero (that's one of the rare things the show got right, funnily enough; that's how I imagined they would react to such information).

10 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Is there a quote? Because the text does not make it clear, to me at least. Apart from their stated intention to have her marry Willas there is the decision to include her in Margaery's circle. That speaks of recruitment to me. And why not? Willas and Sansa's children could stand to inherit the Reach, Riverlands and North. There is the fact that Olenna invited her to Highgarden and that even if suspicion fell on her it would have been in their power to protect her. After all, Sansa was an unwitting conspirator. They wouldn't want her interrogated in the first place. It would make more sense for them to remove her from the picture than framing her. After all, there was no way for a thirteen year old hostage to obtain that poison.

The necklace was LF's arrangement. As for Tyrion, they might not have known from the beginning and would have little readon to care for him either way. They certainly however used the altercation to poison Jeoffrey, which suggest that they were aware of it by that time. And it suited their original stated intentions just fine.

Around the time of the Purple Wedding episode of the show, GRRM gave some interviews where he said that Olenna's plan was that Joffrey's death would be mistaken for choking, but that if somebody realized he had been poisoned, Sansa would take the fall because she was wearing the necklace.  That's why the Tyrells were holding off on the engagement thing until after the wedding, in case Sansa had to be the fall-guy.  The whole Tyrion angle was Littlefinger's plan, not the Tyrells, so the Tyrells didn't know about it.

Quote

I never suggested that Sansa is personal friends with the Mountain Clans, but she knows their faces and names and they know her as well. They don't live in a vacuum, they would have heard of her marriage to Tyrion. 

They live up in the mountains and their only contact with the outside world is raiding villages.  Why would they have heard of her marriage to Tyrion?

5 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Actually he does say this in response to both your statements:

Harry is a legal adult and male even if he's Lady Waynwood's ward. 

As to Cersei, correct.  "Approval", though, just means that she has to make him like her.  They're already betrothed, as Harry is 15, not a legal adult.

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57 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

As to Cersei, correct.  "Approval", though, just means that she has to make him like her.  They're already betrothed, as Harry is 15, not a legal adult.

The wiki has him born as late as 283 AC. Its the year 300 now. Depending on his nameday he's 16-17 years old.  The quote clearly states Harrold must consent for the betrothal to stand.  He will not be forced to marry against his will.  LF clearly tells Alayne to charm and betwitch Harry after she says he's horrible. He only inherhits if SR dies before producing his own heir.  If SR died tomorrow, Harry could decide he wants to hold out for a better match with a highborn family.  As far as he knows he's being asked to marry far below his station, but Anya desperately wants her debts paid. If she tried to strong arm him into the marriage she could be hurting her own family with a resentful future liegelord. She's already facing Yohn Royce's wrath by getting cozy with LF.  By insisting it's his choice and she softens the approach and relies on Alayne to seduce him. Harry is such a womanizer it's a safe bet he could consent.  

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2 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

hey live up in the mountains and their only contact with the outside world is raiding villages.  Why would they have heard of her marriage to Tyrion?

Tyrion brings the Burned Men back to KL to act as his own little personal army.  Sansa sees him and his clan men returning to KL on Joffrey's name day tourney. Sansa III ACOK has Sansa, Tyrion, Timett and Bronn interacting all in the same room.  Im on my phone so I can't quote it right now, but Timett and Sansa know each other by sight, name, and her relationship to Tyrion.

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6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

My objection about Oswell is that I believe he is currently in the Vale, where any potential revelations would have far less dramatic repercussions than they would in King's Landing.

my point still stands: he keeps a suspicious low profile and  has colliding intressts with LF

3 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

They wouldn't want to use lethal force against Littlefinger in that instance.  The whole reason (or at least the main reason) Royce and co. dislike him is because they think he's a Lannister stooge.  If it turned out he was actually an enemy of the regime, particularly one who rescued Sansa, he'd look like a hero (that's one of the rare things the show got right, funnily enough; that's how I imagined they would react to such information).

Royce and co. would HATE him for being complicit in poisoning a king.

 

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7 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Tyrion brings the Burned Men back to KL to act as his own little personal army.  Sansa sees him and his clan men returning to KL on Joffrey's name day tourney. Sansa III ACOK has Sansa, Tyrion, Timett and Bronn interacting all in the same room.  Im on my phone so I can't quote it right now, but Timett and Sansa know each other by sight, name, and her relationship to Tyrion.

Sansa was forced to marry Tyrion in the middle of ASOS.  The mountain clans left King's Landing well before that.  They may remember who she is, but they have no inkling that she's Tyrion's wife.

5 hours ago, the Scorpion Knight said:

Royce and co. would HATE him for being complicit in poisoning a king.

They'd hate him for killing a king they despised in order to rescue Sansa (which is how he would spin it)?

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33 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

They'd hate him for killing a king they despised in order to rescue Sansa (which is how he would spin it)?

It's not the WHO but the HOW joffrey died.

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17 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Around the time of the Purple Wedding episode of the show, GRRM gave some interviews where he said that Olenna's plan was that Joffrey's death would be mistaken for choking, but that if somebody realized he had been poisoned, Sansa would take the fall because she was wearing the necklace.  That's why the Tyrells were holding off on the engagement thing until after the wedding, in case Sansa had to be the fall-guy.  The whole Tyrion angle was Littlefinger's plan, not the Tyrells, so the Tyrells didn't know about it.

I found two interviews addressing the subject; one mentions Sansa none of them mentions Tyrion at all. The point remains that the arrangement of having Sansa bear the murder weapon was LF and it illustrates the lengths that he went to to secure her. Add the fact that Dontos trying to persuade Sansa that the Tyrells are as bad as the Lannisters and the fact  that Sansa's marriage to Tyrion was LF's fault to begin with. Burning her was certainly not the Tyrells' first option. The fact also remains that Willas marrying Sansa would be enormously advantageous for the Tyrells with both the Riverlands and the North being unstable at the moment and could land them in their control.

Framing Tyrion being LF' plan doesn't mean that they didn't know about it. They might have or not. It was certainly convenient to them in a multitude of ways.

17 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

 

They live up in the mountains and their only contact with the outside world is raiding villages.  Why would they have heard of her marriage to Tyrion?

 

I find it implausible that they have zero contact with the outside world, when the wildlings get news from south of the Wall. Even the captives taken on raids could provide them with news. As it is not mentioned explicitly, I will not press the point. Regardless of her status as Tyrion's wife they are familiar to each other and Sansa knows they can be dealt with.

In other news, I think LF is plannin a coup d'etat, in the form of having Harry stay in the Gates of the Moon. There had been some discussion in previous chapters about who Harry would be staying with, with the implication being who would be in a position to exert influence. In the Alayne threads, a good case has been made about the planned murder of Anya Waynwood over which I had some reservations. The main argument was that her sleeping arrangements woupd leave her isolated from her protectors, while the planned gift of daggers to the participants of the tourney would provide a likely scapegoat, by using a similar dagger to the ones that were gifted while stealing the patsy's dagger. My reservations concern the possible motive as Waynwood agrees with the betrothal and the fact that the multitude of daggers makes it rather more difficult to present a convincing case against a likley culprit. However, the fact of her death might be a large part of the motive as well as the fact that she is a person who has influence over Harry.

Finding her murdered with a murder weapon that everyone in the Gates possess would accomplish a number of things: it would remove her from being a perso who could advise Harry as to the implications of the situation and it creates a crisis and a climate of fear and distrust. With Nestor Royce in his pocket LF could lock the Gates down with the pretext of discovering the murderer and taking full custody of Harry with the pretext of keeping him safe. Furthermore at this juncture Harry effectively has no seat. With his foster mother dead he has no further official ties to the Waynewoods and being knighted hehas ceased to be Bronze Yohn's squire. The Eyrie is closed for the winter and as heir to the Vale it could be argued that his place is at the Gates. Which LF has granted to Nestor Royce. Thus the crisis becomes the impetus becomes LF's hostage in perpetuity.

If Robert conveniently had his final seizure at this juncture ...

 

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