Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread 4

[Sly Wren]

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "all". If we are only talking of the High Lords, then we have to eliminate the Martells from the equation. They have a special relationship between the Targaryens and themselves - different than all the other houses. Rhaegar's marriage to Elia reinforces this special relationship, and it would be diametrically in opposition to Dorne's interests to join such an alliance.

Agreed. 

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Tywin obviously wants to continue Targaryen rule without Aerys up until he opens up negotiations with Hoster Tully for Jaime's marriage to Lysa. So, while his interest is mostly in line with replacing what the Martells have with the Targaryens with a special relationship between the Lannisters and the Targaryens, he changes the specifics of that as his relationship with Aerys falls apart. And then he tries to join with the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons in what appears to be a new venture for the Lannisters.

On this, I agree with a lot of what @Rhaenys_Targaryen said above. 

I'd also add in the timeline of the attacks on Elia by the Kingswood Brotherhood. Defeating the KWBrotherhood is how Jaime gets knighted. And on his way home (according to Jaime) from that battle and knighting, Jaime sees Cersei in King's Landing who proposes his Kingsguarding. All right before Harrenhal.

Sounds like the attack on Elia is after her marriage to Rhaegar. And it's a stupid move on the KWBrotherhood's part. They keep getting brought up in the story--which makes me think they matter. So, why on earth did they dare to attack Elia?

We know Tywin will use sellsword companies to achieve his ends. That he values "savage beasts" to do dirty work for him. And that Toyne is from a family with a lot of reason to hate the Targs. 

No way on earth we have enough info on this to pin it down. 

But I do wonder if that attack was "encouraged" by Tywin, to get rid of that pesky Elia. Not unlike using Duskendale to get rid of that pesky Aerys. ETA: or the Bloody Mummers to teach the Tullys a lesson. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

To your point of Cersei's sojourn with her father in King's Landing,I think there can be little doubt Tywin brings his daughter to court to show off her beauty to the still unmarried Rhaegar. Perhaps in the vain hope that some attraction could get the Prince to persuade Aerys where Tywin could not.

That hope may not have been vain at all. Tywin seems awfully certain he can get Aerys to agree to the betrothal, despite their "tension." He promises Cersei. And seems to have told Genna it's a certainty as well. And Cersei is presented to Rhaegar before Twyin proposes the match to Aerys.

And Rhaegar was right there when Tywin told the small council who objected to his Duskendale plan that Rhaegar would be a better king if Aerys dies. Members of the small council objected. But there's no evidence that Rhaegar did.

I'm thinking there's a very good chance Rhaegar was all for an alliance with one of the smartest, wealthiest, most able men in the kingdom. And that Cersei would have been a very attractive bride offer.

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I've already given my thinking of what happens at Harrenhal, so I see the idea of the STAB alliance being built to bring Rhaegar to the throne as particular out of touch with what we see in the books. If that was the case they would be celebrating Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, not having to be held back from killing him.

That kind of leaves the idea the STAB alliance is for placing Viserys on the throne and controlling him, or they are about doing away with Targaryen rule. I think there are many reasons to believe the latter and next to none to believe the former.

Or they are of a similar mind as Tywin--put Rhaegar on the throne. If he's calling a "meeting" at Harrenhal, might be he's telling the lords he'll give them more autonomy or something. Or just, "we can't let the throne fall apart. Chaos will ensue. But I'm stable, sane, and not prone to burning people. Vote me!" Seems like there's a good chance the idea was that they'd Rhaegar.

10 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

And if the STAB alliance wants to put an end to the Targaryen rule, why had there been no idea whatsoever as to who to place on the throne? It took months and months of war before that decision was ever made. Yet, that sounds like something you'd discuss early on while forming the alliance.

Agreed. 

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Yeah, I don't think we can rule out the possibility. The most likely one as I see it was that Tywin was playing both sides.

Absolutely--he stays out of the war, holds onto his great prize marriage--Cersei. And only enters at the opportune moment. My guess is he told Rhaegar he would hold his forces until the last moment so they'd be sure his forces weren't spent and thus Rhaegar would have a stronger army at his back.

But staying out also let him back the winner at the end.

57 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

But the bonds formed between Jon, Ned, and Robert ensured that they would band together after Ned's sister was kidnapped, his father and brother and Jon's nephew/heir were executed. And Ned and Jon were later able to add the Tullys to their side after the war had already started.

Yup! The taking/disappearance of Lyanna set up a war. And we know Tywin used others' wars to get what he wanted. A united front against Aerys might actually limit Tywin's options.

But if the STAB alliance is fighting Aerys while Rhaegar and Tywin hold off until the opportune moment, that puts Tywin in a position to spend very little mounty and power on a war that gets rid of his rival, puts Cersei in as the King's wife (one way or another) and he can get that regardless of which side wins.

[Sly Wren]

24 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Coming in late to this,so i may be missing some key info in the discussions.I think Robert not wanting to be King is exactly the reason.He would be more  inclined to let others take the reigns on this one which is exactly what he did anyway.Right blood without the desire to rule and would be happy just to leave that to others.Robert himself said Ned or Jon should have been king.That choice i think was taken from him to be honest.He was going to be king no matter how much he hated it.

Yup! He had to be king so Jon Arryn could be Hand.

I think he's the real power broker in the STAB alliance. But for now, that's mostly based on his pride and position at the end. 

[Bael's Bastard]

As far as Rhaegar and Tywin go, I think if Rhaegar had any sort of agreement with any lord heading into HH it was Tywin. Not that I think everything Rhaegar did was part of a plan with Tywin, but I definitely lean toward both men being central to whatever the HH plot was meant to be or accomplish. But I also think they both had their own plans and actions outside of the plans with each other, which perhaps even screwed each other or their plans with each other up.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Excellent rundown, RT - It's highly in character for Tywin to have been playing both sides. Fits with what he did in RR itself - sit out till you know who's winning.

I think the Brandon - Catelyn betrothal also took place during the same time period or slightly earlier (276 - 277 AC), so SA (Southron Ambitions) plan was definitely afoot when Jaime was sent to Riverrun.

Thank you!

Catelyn was twelve years old when she was betrothed, as she states in AGOT, and with her birth in either 264 AC or 265 AC (and in whichever of these two years she was born, it appears to have been towards the end of said year), that would place her betrothal in late 276 AC, 277 AC, or 278 AC.

Although we do indeed know for a certainty that by the time Jaime went to Riverrun, Catelyn and Brandon's betrothal was already agreed upon, and appears to have been a well-known fact.

[Lysa's] older sister had seemed more interesting, though Catelyn was promised to some northern boy, the heir of Winterfell... but at that age, no girl interested Jaime half so much as Hoster’s famous brother, who had won renown fighting the Ninepenny Kings upon the Stepstones.

 

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This would involve Rhaegar knowing of the S.T.A.B alliance. In that case, was the Great Council of the Lords Rhaegar meant to call somehow related to this? Was he in talks with them previously itself to support him as king at such a council? Was the Tourney at Harrenhal supposed to be somewhat like the Whitewalls tourney, where Rhaegar had gathered his supporters for this purpose? I wonder.

If it would involve placing Rhaegar on the throne, he would indeed at some point have needed to become part of the alliance, yes. For placing Aegon on the throne, however, Rhaegar's support would not have been necessary. If the alliance can install Viserys on the throne, they can also install Aegon on the throne. In both cases, Aerys is dethroned and Rhaegar is passed over... Which begs the question, if the alliance indeed wanted to place a Targaryen on the throne, what had Rhaegar done to become unfit to rule in the eyes of the Great Lords?

 

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There's a small issue with getting the Dornish on the side of the alliance however  - Tywin wanted to see one of his grandchildren on the throne. With married Rhaegar and Elia as King and Queen those hopes of his would be dashed. He could still have betrothed one of his great grandchildren to Aegon, maybe.

Tywin is not the head of the alliance, nor the heart. So if, for examples, the Starks, Arryns and Tullys were set on installing a new Targaryen monarch, Tywin would have to agree when joining them, or decide to not join them at all.

 

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As an aside, do we know when exactly Hoster Tully proposed the marriage of his brother Brynden Tully to Bethany Redwyne? I'm guessing it might have been a couple of years after the War of Ninepenny Kings (he would have been around 18 at the time.) That would have brought in a strong additional link to the Reach. 

No. Bethany has three children by her husband, and while her daughter is likely to have been in her late teens at the start of the series*, we have no idea about her other children, nor about how long she might have been married prior to giving birth to her first child, so we cannot say when she got married to Lord Mathis.

*Lord Mathis's daughter had been two years old than Dareon, and Jon Snow notes that most of those in his training group at the Wall are two or three years older than him. Jon himself is fourteen at the time, which would make the girl 18/19 years old (assuming that Dareon is indeed 2 or 3 years older than him as well).

Catelyn had already been born when Hoster's father died, but she cannot recall his funeral anymore, citing as the reason that she had been too young to remember, indicating that she had only been a few years old. That likely places Hoster's inheritance of Rivrerun in the late 260ties, since her birth was in 264/265 AC. And since Hoster could only attempt to betroth Brynden after he had become the Lord of Riverrun, the attempt must have been at least a number of years after the war, though we cannot say how many exactly. 

Brynden would have been near twenties at that point, and so, Hoster might have attempted to betroth him shortly after inheriting Riverrun's rule. Brynden might even have been his only male heir at the time (if grandpa Tully died a few years prior to Edmure's birth, of course), his previous two sons having died in the cradle. We know a rough window of time for Edmure's birth (267-274 AC), but Catelyn's statement about how she had been both daughter and son to Hoster until Edmure's birth implies to me that Edmure might easily be several years younger than Lysa. (Several statements about Walder Frey's offers for one of his daughter for Edmure support this idea, explained here). If indeed Brynden was Hoster's only male heir at the time of the betrothal, that might have made it additionally important for Hoster to see Brynden married (and continue their house), and could have been the cause for the extreme anger when Brynden refused, perhaps going as far as seeing it as a personal rejection.

But I'm getting off topic here

 

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Exactly. I would say that Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and possibly Steffon would definitely have discussed this during the formation of the alliance itself. If there was a plan to put a different king on the throne (I'm guessing it might have been Robert all along) they would have decided on it before moving against Aerys. If it was about secession, why did they change their plans all of a sudden just before the Trident? Robert never really wanted to be king, it must have been someone else (Jon Arryn is my best guess) who even put the idea into his head.

In hindsight, Robert did not want to be king. But had that always been the case? The job had certainly turned out to be a great disappointment to him, in the end. 

I do think that, considering the marriage alliances, it is important to remember that Robert initiated the betrothal to Lyanna. Rickard might have agreed to it, but thusfar, we have nothing that suggests that he had anything to do with initiating it. That appears to have been all Robert, who asked his good friend Eddard for help. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

RT, I should have been clearer about the time I was referring to in the previous post. I'm sorry for any confusion, but what I meant by the sentence ending "he opens up negotiations with Hoster Tully for Jaime's marriage to Lysa" is not when Jaime is sent to Riverrun, but when Lord Hoster is invited to come and negotiate dowry. The first can be nothing more than a compliment to another High Lord, but the latter represents a serious interest by Tywin to join the STAB alliance. I take no issue with your reasoning here around the range possible for when Jaime goes to Riverrun; as usual you do a great job in laying out the timeline. I think it important to note, as you do so well, how early Tywin was looking into a possible marriage into the alliance. I would point out that the latest date in your range corresponds with the year in which Rhaegar's betrothal to Elia is announce. I can't say whether Tywin anticipates the announcement with sending Jaime to Riverrun or he reacts to it, or if there is no direct connection between the two events. I do think it is worthy of note in trying to figure out Tywin's mindset to keep both in mind. I would love to know whose idea it was - Tywin's or Hoster's - that Jaime come on that visit.

To your point of Cersei's sojourn with her father in King's Landing,I think there can be little doubt Tywin brings his daughter to court to show off her beauty to the still unmarried Rhaegar. Perhaps in the vain hope that some attraction could get the Prince to persuade Aerys where Tywin could not.

Regardless, Cersei's time at court ends in 281 before Harrenhal when her father hears of Aerys's offer of a white cloak to Jaime. During this time we know the negotiations between Hoster and Tywin are on going, and we have reason to believe Tywin's plans  for Cersei had changed or been put on hold. After all, it is the year before this that Rhaegar marries Elia. Perhaps Tywin had given up on his plans to marry her to the Crown Prince, or perhaps he was waiting for Elia to die. We don't know, but the marriage would be a reason to pursue other avenues for power. So, was he keeping "both options open"? I would put it more like he had put one plan on the back burner to see what time would hold, and pursued the new track. What he asked for a dowry is what interests me most from his activities during the period.

I would also love to know if there is any discussion with Jon Arryn regarding Elbert Arryn's status. I don't think we even know if he was married, but if he was not, it would make an awful lot of sense for the alliance to offer his hand to Cersei to bring Tywin into the fold. Ned or Stannis would have been of interest as well, but as second sons not as prestigious.

More later.

Ah, ok. I think I slightly misunderstood then

Thank you for elaborating!

 

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

It is clear that most of the ties between Great Houses were made before Aerys could have possibly been considered a threat to them. It is a claim made in hindsight but which doesn't really hold up.

Ned and Robert were fostered with Jon when Ned was nine, long before Aerys could have been considered a threat to any of them.

Robert's father seem to have remained Aerys' most trusted confidant pretty much up to his death in the late 270s, and even as late as TKOTLT indicent at Harrenhal Robert appears to have no opposition to Aerys.

The Brandon/Cat betrothal appears to have been around the time of Duskendale, though not clear whether it was before Aerys was captured, during, or after he wiped out those houses.

The Robert/Lyanna betrothal seems to be post-Duskendale, but it still isn't clear the Starks/Baratheons/Arryns had any reason to think Aerys was a danger to them, and the betrothal makes sense as a continuation of the relationships established in the early 270s, before Aerys would have been considered a threat. If Rickard, Jon, and Hoster have such intentions they don't seem to be known to Robert.

I think that the Tullys had to be brought into the war with marriages to two of the rebellion's three leaders only further demonstrates that there was no long planned, deep reasoned alliance formed between all these houses. Though it is entirely possible Aerys eventually came to believe they were formed against him, and the alliances did ultimately create the framework for the houses to come together against Aerys.

As for Rickard's southron ambitions, he betrothed his heir to a daughter of the house (Tully) that was previously set to marry a daughter to Jaehaerys (II), and betrothed his daughter to the lord of a house (Baratheon) that was previously set to marry a daughter to heir to the Iron Throne Duncan. If anything, he had positioned his descendants in the best positions to eventually marry into the Iron Throne.

But the bonds formed between Jon, Ned, and Robert ensured that they would band together after Ned's sister was kidnapped, his father and brother and Jon's nephew/heir were executed. And Ned and Jon were later able to add the Tullys to their side after the war had already started.

A very interesting point. You can also add that the Arryn's had previously married into House Targaryen as well on several occasions, which (if arranging the Catelyn/Brandon betrothal and agreeing to the Lyanna/Robert betrothal had indeed been influenced by their connection to Targaryens), might have played a role in his decision to have Ned be fostered in the Vale as well.

 

40 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. 

On this, I agree with a lot of what @Rhaenys_Targaryen said above. 

I'd also add in the timeline of the attacks on Elia by the Kingswood Brotherhood. Defeating the KWBrotherhood is how Jaime gets knighted. And on his way home (according to Jaime) from that battle and knighting, Jaime sees Cersei in King's Landing who proposes his Kingsguarding. All right before Harrenhal.

Sounds like the attack on Elia is after her marriage to Rhaegar. And it's a stupid move on the KWBrotherhood's part. They keep getting brought up in the story--which makes me think they matter. So, why on earth did they dare to attack Elia?

We know Tywin will use sellsword companies to achieve his ends. That he values "savage beasts" to do dirty work for him. And that Toyne is from a family with a lot of reason to hate the Targs. 

No way on earth we have enough info on this to pin it down. 

But I do wonder if that attack was "encouraged" by Tywin, to get rid of that pesky Elia. Not unlike using Duskendale to get rid of that pesky Aerys. ETA: or the Bloody Mummers to teach the Tullys a lesson. 

An interesting suggestion.

I agree that he attack is likely to have occured after the marriage. The attack on Elia, and the injury on the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, was an attack Aerys could not have ignored. It was an act that demanded a response from the throne, and the fact that Gerold appears to have played no role in the campaign that followed suggests in my opinion that he was still not yet fully healed for most, if not all, of the campaign. We can wonder about when the campaign began, and how long it lasted.. In other words, when was Elia attacked? I to have some ideas about that, so if that's something you wish to discuss, say the word!

As far as attack goes.. This is all we know about Elia's encounter with them:

Ulmer, stooped and grey-bearded and loose of skin and limb, stepped to the mark and pulled an arrow from the quiver at his waist. In his youth he had been an outlaw, a member of the infamous Kingswood Brotherhood. He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull of the Kingsguard to steal a kiss from the lips of a Dornish princess. He had stolen her jewels too, and a chest of golden dragons, but it was the kiss he liked to boast of in his cups.

Of course, this is only Ulmer.. Who knows what the others did, or had planned to do.. The Kingswood Brotherhood was known to kidnap highborns for ransom.. Was that their plan for Elia as well? Ulmer's account details how Elia was robbed, and Gerold attacked. Did Elia further remain uninjured because her guards intervened? 

So many questions..

[LynnS]

Is there any indication at all that Ned and Robert had any contact with each at all after he left Starfall and presumeably returned to Winterfell.  Other than the official 'broadsheets'; royal births, etc. 

[Bael's Bastard]

37 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

A very interesting point. You can also add that the Arryn's had previously married into House Targaryen as well on several occasions, which (if arranging the Catelyn/Brandon betrothal and agreeing to the Lyanna/Robert betrothal had indeed been influenced by their connection to Targaryens), might have played a role in his decision to have Ned be fostered in the Vale as well.

Good point. I hadn't considered that, but you're right. Rhaegel's wife and mother of his children (including the wife of Aerion Brightflame and mother of Maegor) was an Arryn. Not to mention the older examples such as Viserys I's Arryn queen, from whom all Targaryen rulers since Rhaenyra's sons are descended. Jon Arryn does seem to have served as Rickard's bridge to the south, and the fostering seems to have paved the way for so much after. Would be interesting to find out when and how Rickard and Jon met (I have heard the Nine Penny War suggested). Rickard was apparently already lord in 264 when his visit to King's Landing inspired Aerys II to want to build a new wall beyond the Wall, and claim the lands in between.

[Bael's Bastard]

11 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Is there any indication at all that Ned and Robert had any contact with each at all after he left Starfall and presumeably returned to Winterfell.  Other than the official 'broadsheets'; royal births, etc. 

IIRC it is said they were reconciled by Lyanna's death, so it would seem likely that Ned saw Robert again before returning to Winterfell.

[wolfmaid7]

3 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Yup! He had to be king so Jon Arryn could be Hand.

I think he's the real power broker in the STAB alliance. But for now, that's mostly based on his pride and position at the end.

Isn't how weird things turned out.For all the scheming and back room deals to be undone by Littlefinger.

 

2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I do think that, considering the marriage alliances, it is important to remember that Robert initiated the betrothal to Lyanna. Rickard might have agreed to it, but thusfar, we have nothing that suggests that he had anything to do with initiating it. That appears to have been all Robert, who asked his good friend Eddard for help. 

I missed this.Where in the books was it stated that Robert was the one that initiated the bethrothal? 

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

IIRC it is said they were reconciled by Lyanna's death, so it would seem likely that Ned saw Robert again before returning to Winterfell.

Reconciled?  That sounds like they had a falling out at some point.  I wonder what that was about.

[Sly Wren]

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

An interesting suggestion.

I agree that he attack is likely to have occured after the marriage. The attack on Elia, and the injury on the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, was an attack Aerys could not have ignored. It was an act that demanded a response from the throne, and the fact that Gerold appears to have played no role in the campaign that followed suggests in my opinion that he was still not yet fully healed for most, if not all, of the campaign. We can wonder about when the campaign began, and how long it lasted.. In other words, when was Elia attacked? I to have some ideas about that, so if that's something you wish to discuss, say the word!

Consider the word spoken!  What are you thinking along these lines?

And I had not thought of Hightower's not returning to the campaign. You're right--that makes it sound like it didn't take long--which makes sense given what Jaime tells us about Arthur's strategy to redirect trust from the outlaws back to the throne. As well as the final battle. 

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As far as attack goes.. This is all we know about Elia's encounter with them:

Ulmer, stooped and grey-bearded and loose of skin and limb, stepped to the mark and pulled an arrow from the quiver at his waist. In his youth he had been an outlaw, a member of the infamous Kingswood Brotherhood. He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull of the Kingsguard to steal a kiss from the lips of a Dornish princess. He had stolen her jewels too, and a chest of golden dragons, but it was the kiss he liked to boast of in his cups.

Of course, this is only Ulmer.. Who knows what the others did, or had planned to do.. The Kingswood Brotherhood was known to kidnap highborns for ransom.. Was that their plan for Elia as well? Ulmer's account details how Elia was robbed, and Gerold attacked. Did Elia further remain uninjured because her guards intervened? 

So many questions..

Many, many questions. I suppose there's an outside chance that Ulmer says "Dornish princess" because Elia hadn't married Rhaegar yet. But I think it's more likely that this happened after their marriage.

And you mentioned the kidnap and ransom. Which is a version of what the Darklyns did with Aerys--holding him to get their demands met. Might be a reason why the Brotherhood would try to take Elia. Because simply robbing her sounds like begging for trouble. Holding her for ransom is, too. But at least then you have leverage.

And, if Elia's killed in the rescue attempt, well, the onus would be on the KWBrotherhood. With Tywin looking as innocent and fluffy as a lamb.

Which brings me back to the Darklyns and Aerys--we've got no evidence that Tywin influenced the Darklyns somehow. Though I would not put it past him at all. But the World Book suggests that Aerys went to Duskendale to prove in part that he, not Tywin, was running things. That sounds like something Aerys might have been goaded into.

It didn't work out for Tywin--Barristan pulled off a sheer miracle. And I'm thinking there's a chance of similar bad-Tywin-luck with Elia--her other guards were just too good. 

All of which again makes me question who exactly "fell on" Lyanna--and why.

Many, many questions.

[Sly Wren]

42 minutes ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Isn't how weird things turned out.For all the scheming and back room deals to be undone by Littlefinger.

Yup! Makes it pretty clear he learned a lot about staring rebellions and keeping the suspicion off of himself and outmaneuvering people when he went to King's Landing. He gave up the direct approach completely. And outdid those who came before him.

Which again makes his actions well worth considering in discerning the "causes" of Robert's Rebellion and Lyanna's "disappearance." If Baelish can pull all this stuff off now, no way that Tywin and/or Arryn couldn't have done so then as well.

18 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Reconciled?  That sounds like they had a falling out at some point.  I wonder what that was about.

I'm pretty sure that's referring to Ned and Robert's blow up over the murder of Rhaegar's children. And of Robert's refusal to condemn their murders.

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Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing. Game, Eddard II

 

[Bael's Bastard]

36 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Reconciled?  That sounds like they had a falling out at some point.  I wonder what that was about.

No need to wonder, it is explained in one of Ned's first chapter. "Ned did not feign surprise; Robert's hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar's wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, "I see no babes. Only dragonspawn." Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna's death, and the grief they had shared over her passing."

[LynnS]

42 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

I'm pretty sure that's referring to Ned and Robert's blow up over the murder of Rhaegar's children. And of Robert's refusal to condemn their murders.

Ninja'd by Sly Wren.  I was just about to post that very quote.   I've wondered about Robert's reaction to this and his rage over that whore Dany.  I keep thinking this has something to do with Lyanna and the story making the rounds at the time that she eloped with Rhaegar.  Someting that still causes him to fly into a rage when he learns that Dany is pregnant and wants her and the unborn child killed. 

I'm also a little suspicious of the manner in which he questions Ned about Jon.  Ned returns to KL at some point after Starfall and tells Robert that Lyanna is dead.  And he has his 'own bastard' to explain.  The way Robert questions him reminds me of tactics that police use in questioning someone when they know the answer.  But are checking to see if they get the same answer.  Ned gets a little angry about it.   Robert is basically saying that Ned's story is a little hard to believe when he says that Wylla must have been some woman to make Ned forget his honor for one night.

The whole 'seed is strong' theme is also curious.  It doesn't just mean that Robert's bastard's look like him.  It also means that a man is virile.  Robert makes a point of Ned losing his honor 'that one time.'    I think it's possible that there was 'that one time' with Lyanna and Robert.

Jon may not have been introduced to Robert directly; but he was in the line-up for inspection when Robert arrives. Robert must have had some curiosity about Jon even if it was only a glance. After introductions, he immediately wants to see Lyanna's grave and statue.  There is a suggestion from Arya that Jon looks like her and a similar suggestion that Arya looks like Lyanna.  So I wonder if this is reason that Robert brings it up with Ned at all.

Of course, I am making the assumption that Robert is Jon's father.  It puts a different spin on some of their interactions in that light.   Especially their private conversation at Robert's deathbed. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

5 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Coming in late to this,so i may be missing some key info in the discussions.I think Robert not wanting to be King is exactly the reason.He would be more  inclined to let others take the reigns on this one which is exactly what he did anyway.Right blood without the desire to rule and would be happy just to leave that to others.Robert himself said Ned or Jon should have been king.That choice i think was taken from him to be honest.He was going to be king no matter how much he hated it.

I agree. Robert doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would want the throne by himself. I'm pretty sure he was made to take it.

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

If it would involve placing Rhaegar on the throne, he would indeed at some point have needed to become part of the alliance, yes. For placing Aegon on the throne, however, Rhaegar's support would not have been necessary. If the alliance can install Viserys on the throne, they can also install Aegon on the throne. In both cases, Aerys is dethroned and Rhaegar is passed over... Which begs the question, if the alliance indeed wanted to place a Targaryen on the throne, what had Rhaegar done to become unfit to rule in the eyes of the Great Lords?

This scenario introduces another possibility - Rhaegar doesn't know what the STAB alliance is planning, but organises the tourney at HH for the purpose of speaking to the heads of the Great Houses to support him at a council over his father. However, at HH, he gets wind of the STAB alliance, and gives the QOLAB crown to Lyanna, which happens to be a covert signal to the Starks that he would make Lyanna his second queen if they made him king and not Viserys or Aegon.

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Tywin is not the head of the alliance, nor the heart. So if, for examples, the Starks, Arryns and Tullys were set on installing a new Targaryen monarch, Tywin would have to agree when joining them, or decide to not join them at all.

That's true. Still I think that would be his goal. I wouldn't put it past him to have Elia "killed" in some accident and then push Cersei as her replacement (this is assuming the goal of the STAB + Lannisters was to put Rhaegar on the throne.)

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

No. Bethany has three children by her husband, and while her daughter is likely to have been in her late teens at the start of the series*, we have no idea about her other children, nor about how long she might have been married prior to giving birth to her first child, so we cannot say when she got married to Lord Mathis.

*Lord Mathis's daughter had been two years old than Dareon, and Jon Snow notes that most of those in his training group at the Wall are two or three years older than him. Jon himself is fourteen at the time, which would make the girl 18/19 years old (assuming that Dareon is indeed 2 or 3 years older than him as well).

Catelyn had already been born when Hoster's father died, but she cannot recall his funeral anymore, citing as the reason that she had been too young to remember, indicating that she had only been a few years old. That likely places Hoster's inheritance of Rivrerun in the late 260ties, since her birth was in 264/265 AC. And since Hoster could only attempt to betroth Brynden after he had become the Lord of Riverrun, the attempt must have been at least a number of years after the war, though we cannot say how many exactly. 

Brynden would have been near twenties at that point, and so, Hoster might have attempted to betroth him shortly after inheriting Riverrun's rule. Brynden might even have been his only male heir at the time (if grandpa Tully died a few years prior to Edmure's birth, of course), his previous two sons having died in the cradle. We know a rough window of time for Edmure's birth (267-274 AC), but Catelyn's statement about how she had been both daughter and son to Hoster until Edmure's birth implies to me that Edmure might easily be several years younger than Lysa. (Several statements about Walder Frey's offers for one of his daughter for Edmure support this idea, explained here). If indeed Brynden was Hoster's only male heir at the time of the betrothal, that might have made it additionally important for Hoster to see Brynden married (and continue their house), and could have been the cause for the extreme anger when Brynden refused, perhaps going as far as seeing it as a personal rejection.

That was an excellent explanation as usual, thank you RT  With this information, we can say that the Brynden Tully - Bethany Redwyne alliance was supposed to happen approximately around 270 AC, a couple of years before Ned and Robert were sent to the Vale for fostering. I think that was the first "move" of the rebel alliance which would later become STAB. Which shows that the alliance was very much supposed to include the Reach as well, at some point (basically, the whole of Westeros v/s the Targs and Martells.) It kind of fits with the behavior of the Reach during the rebellion as well.

4 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

In hindsight, Robert did not want to be king. But had that always been the case? The job had certainly turned out to be a great disappointment to him, in the end. 

I do think that, considering the marriage alliances, it is important to remember that Robert initiated the betrothal to Lyanna. Rickard might have agreed to it, but thusfar, we have nothing that suggests that he had anything to do with initiating it. That appears to have been all Robert, who asked his good friend Eddard for help. 

Really? I seemed to have missed that quote. So Robert went and asked Rickard for Lyanna's hand?

59 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Which brings me back to the Darklyns and Aerys--we've got no evidence that Tywin influenced the Darklyns somehow. Though I would not put it past him at all. But the World Book suggests that Aerys went to Duskendale to prove in part that he, not Tywin, was running things. That sounds like something Aerys might have been goaded into.

I don't know if Tywin exchanged any "letters" with the Darklyns, but indirectly he was responsible for the Defiance of Duskendale, I guess. His tax policies led to them. He lowered import tariffs at the three richest ports - KL, Oldtown and Lannisport. That would obviously direct most trade towards these three places, leading to a decline in income for smaller ports such as Duskendale (which was that too located right next to KL, so it's a given that people trading with them would prefer to go to KL.) 

It's straight out mentioned in the text IIRC that as KL grew, Duskendale declined. This was over a period of many years, but Tywin's policies served to accelerate that. I'm pretty sure it  must have come to a point where they may not have been able to afford paying the regular taxes they paid the crown. From TWOIAF:

Quote

Tywin reduced tariffs and taxes on shipping going in and out of the cities of King’s Landing, Lannisport, and Oldtown, winning the support of many wealthy merchants.

Quote

Once the most important port on Blackwater Bay, the town had seen its trade dwindle and it's wealth shrink as King's Landing grew and burgeoned (...) Lord Darklyn then devised a new plan to win his charter (and with it, lower port fees and tarffs to alow Duskendale once more to vie for trade with King's Landing) 

 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Ninja'd by Sly Wren.  I was just about to post that very quote.   I've wondered about Robert's reaction to this and his rage over that whore Dany.  I keep thinking this has something to do with Lyanna and the story making the rounds at the time that she eloped with Rhaegar.  Someting that still causes him to fly into a rage when he learns that Dany is pregnant and wants her and the unborn child killed. 

I'm also a little suspicious of the manner in which he questions Ned about Jon.  Ned returns to KL at some point after Starfall and tells Robert that Lyanna is dead.  And he has his 'own bastard' to explain.  The way Robert questions him reminds me of tactics that police use in questioning someone when they know the answer.  But are checking to see if they get the same answer.  Ned gets a little angry about it.   Robert is basically saying that Ned's story is a little hard to believe when he says that Wylla must have been some woman to make Ned forget his honor for one night.

The whole 'seed is strong' theme is also curious.  It doesn't just mean that Robert's bastard's look like him.  It also means that a man is virile.  Robert makes a point of Ned losing his honor 'that one time.'    I think it's possible that there was 'that one time' with Lyanna and Robert.

Jon may not have been introduced to Robert directly; but he was in the line-up for inspection when Robert arrives. Robert must have had some curiosity about Jon even if it was only a glance. After introductions, he immediately wants to see Lyanna's grave and statue.  There is a suggestion from Arya that Jon looks like her and a similar suggestion that Arya looks like Lyanna.  So I wonder if this is reason that Robert brings it up with Ned at all.

Of course, I am making the assumption that Robert is Jon's father.  It puts a different spin on some of their interactions in that light.   Especially their private conversation at Robert's deathbed. 

Where does it say Jon was present with Ned's children when Robert arrived? And unless Robert found, impregnated, and deserted Lyanna AFTER Rhaegar kidnapped her, it is impossible that Robert fathered Jon with her.

[Kingmonkey]

On 28/10/2016 at 10:07 PM, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--but I think it wasn't just that he was forced to see which way the winds were blowing. I think there's an excellent chance he had actively set himself up to play both sides. Not unlike what he did when Duskendale came up. And that's why both he and Rhaegar (plus the Freys--with their Lannister ties) stayed out of the war until the opportune moment.

I don't want to veer too far off topic here, but I think we should consider the death of Rhaegar's wife & children. This wasn't something that Tywin had to do, but it's something he prioritised despite the obvious downsides. I suggest that the STAB alliance saw him as being in the Rhaegar faction, or at least suspected it, and he had to demonstrate that he was severing all ties with Rhaegar. 

On 28/10/2016 at 10:07 PM, Sly Wren said:

Tywin would have been very happy to "serve" as Hand to King Rhaegar.  A king with a sickly wife who could tragically die at any moment and thus need a beautiful young lioness to comfort him. All while Tywin is Hand. That really seems like that's Tywin's best scenario.

Indeed. Jaime certainly seems to have believed that Tywin was waiting for the opportunity to marry Cersei into the Targ dynasty.

[LynnS]

26 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Where does it say Jon was present with Ned's children when Robert arrived? And unless Robert found, impregnated, and deserted Lyanna AFTER Rhaegar kidnapped her, it is impossible that Robert fathered Jon with her.

Oh I might be confusing that damn HBO show again.  However, I don't think it's impossible that Robert impregnated Lyanna.  If he fell in love with her; he had access to her at some point.   That's just as plausible as Rheagar running off with her.

[Bael's Bastard]

5 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Oh I might be confusing that damn HBO show again.  However, I don't think it's impossible that Robert impregnated Lyanna.  If he fell in love with her; he had access to her at some point.   That's just as plausible as Rheagar running off with her.

Nope, not even the show supports such a baseless idea. You'll have to blame some other baseless source. The war after Lyanna was kidnapped lasted a year. Robert never saw her again after she was kidnapped, unless he found her, impregnated her, then abandoned her after she was kidnapped. Feel free to provide some support for Robert impregnating her after she was kidnapped. It would be quite a revelation.

[Kingmonkey]

7 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

I'm going with majority thinking on the matter for arguement sake and for showing how it doesn't make sense.The thinking is that she gave birth within 1-2 mths of the sack she either was traveling or we are going with her being there with the KGs for the entirety of her disappearance being at the toj.And as i pointed out their reply to Ned about them being far away when the sack happened makes this problematic because it doesn't sound as if they were at the toj when the sack happened.You see what i'm saying?

As I pointed out in the message you're replying to, and three other people also pointed out, they do not say they were far away from the toj, they say they were far away from King's Landing. The toj IS far away from King's Landing. This isn't a matter of interpretation this time, the meaning is explicit.

"Far away... or Aerys would yet sit on the Iron Throne". In other words "Had we not been far away, Aerys would yet sit on the Iron Throne". Obviously being at the toj would not allow them to protect Aerys, so reading "far away" as meaning "far away from here (toj)" makes no sense at all. 

Also "either she was travelling or she was there the for the entirety of her disappearance" is a false dichotomy. Why not neither?